MACT JOB 1: SIGNING SAMWISE

Lowetide
May 29 2013 05:48PM

 

Craig MacTavish has a 'to-do' list that would challenge mortals, but his media conferences suggest he's going to get a lot done this summer. We've talked draft, and buyouts and trades, but the truth is that job 1 is getting Sam Gagner's situation straighted out. 

Sam Gagner likes it in Edmonton based on reports, and the Oilers clearly like Samwise according to Craig MacTavish. However, Sam and his agent have an idea about fair dollars for service and the Oilers have a cap number in mind, and those two things might not be close. 

Sam's a unique case--expecting him to do a 'Laddy Smid' and dictate to the media his contract before it's written is folly--and his agent wouldn't be doing his job unless he's pushing the dollars higher. That's just good represenation. 

On the other hand, this is a sweet, sweet spot in the batting order for any young player. Sam Gagner has a chance to be an outstanding 'end of the batting order' offensive player and a real positive for this young Oiler team. Even the loser in a battle for good wingers is going to end up with Yak City and someone else who can cash, and that my friends is very nice address. 

SAM GAGNER 12-13

  • 5×5 points per 60: 1.84 (4th among regular forwards)
  • 5×4 points per 60: 6.15 (1st among regular forwards, 19th in NHL)
  • Qual Comp: 5th toughest among regular forwards (2nd line opp)
  • Qual Team: 6th best teammates among regular forwards
  • Corsi Rel: -4.3 (9th best among regular forwards) (-14.44 CorsiON)
  • Zone Start: 51.4% (4th easiest among regular forwards)
  • Zone Finish: 52.0% (3rd best among regular forwards)
  • Shots on goal/percentage: 113/12.39% (2nd among F’s>70 shots)
  • Boxcars: 48, 14-24-38
  • Plus Minus: -6 on a team that was -15

Gagner's playing card looks exactly as we might expect at 5x5, and he had a wonderful run on the PP--a bad, bad thing considering MacT is about to buy free agent seasons from him. His shot differential was less than we should expect, and that's a concern, but the boxcars are lovely and he can clearly play with skill. 

Sam Gagner is going to cost a pretty penny. 

THE VOLLMAN SLEDGEHAMMER

(courtesy Bruce McCurdy via Rob Vollman)

Sam's bubble tells the story--small negative (red) in the shot differential and playing second toughest opp (putting him in the two way role) while still getting decent zone starts.

Is that graph worth $5M? Add his PP prowess and a great agent, I think a case can be made.

WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN?

I think it comes down to dollars. I believe Craig MacTavish when he says “Sam Gagner has really developed into a leader here, the type of character we want. And that’s going to be important when I’m making the decisions that we have the type of culture in that room. We’ve had a few years of too much of a circus in there. And that’s going to change" and I believe he wants to sign the young skill forward.

On the other hand, there's a line in the sand the new GM is unlikely to go past in terms of contract number and length, and with Samwise possibly a year away from free agency and holding some cards, I suspect this thing gets done one way or another before the free agent window opens.

C2a6955161684b5e3189319acfa5ebe4
Lowetide has been one of the Oilogosphere's shining lights for over a century. You can check him out here at OilersNation and at lowetide.ca. He is also the host of Lowdown with Lowetide weekday mornings 10-noon on Team 1260.
Avatar
#51 DSF
May 29 2013, 07:05PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers

Gagner has always been a very streaky player.

In the first 10 games last season, he scored 11 points while many other players were getting up to speed after the lockout.

In the final 10 games, he scored 4 points...all of them 2nd assists.

Had he continued on the same pace as the last 10 games, he would have finished the season around 55 points.

Of course, there is a chance he would have picked up the pace again but I wouldn't bet on it.

What is a 55 point 2nd line centre who still needs sheltering 7 years into his career worth?

Anything over $4 million is likely an overpayment.

Avatar
#52 WhattaMike
May 29 2013, 07:10PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers

The question is.... where does sammy fit into the Oilers team pending the money he wants?

Is he a top type 2nd line centre for 65 - 70 points a yr with a plus 5 to 10 rating?

Not now or even yet.

Is he more likely a future type 3rd line centre with the ability to be good at faceoffs(???) defensive (???) and still be offensive to 45-50 points a yr (Probable)????

I don't know.

if he could be a younger hardworking version of Horcoff at $4 mil a yr for four yrs then its not too bad...but this is "if".

I like gagner for his work hard ethics but the Oil need a definite plus type 70 plus pts 2nd line center with 2 wayt abilities.

His deficiency at defence cost the team a few goals.

This is why I think he should be traded now before a contract is set and...if too high a contract....he is untradable.

The draft has very good 2nd line centre potiental with Barkov, Monahan, Lindholm, Horvat, and even Fredrick Gauthier is being given good praise.

There are trabable 3rd line centre with better defensice credentials than gagner has proven in 6 yrs so far. But I think the 3rd line is qwhere the Oilers want him cause they used him for PK duty this yr to see how he could be as a checking centre while doing 2nd line duty.

Sorry....but my vote is to trade him in a package for either a top 4 defenceman or a big mean checking winger.

Avatar
#53 mlcsellil
May 29 2013, 07:12PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers

Lowetide--I'll probably get flack for my comment, so here goes. I've never been sold on Gagner from the beginning, although he's had some games when he came out with guns blazing. By my eye, he isn't great on the dot, slower skater that lots of the other guys, not strong on the puck, always landing on his arse, way too many give-aways and doesn't seem to make other players better, but good players (Hall,Ebs and RNH) make him better. I don't usually pay too much attention to the numbers, only just the game in front of me. If MacT found another player to do Gangers job, my feelings wouldn't be hurt at all. If I was the GM, I'd let Gagner go. He seems to be at the same place in his career now as he was at the end of his first year. I'm not seeing much of an improvement from him. I think Ganger is as good as he's ever going to be. Just my opinion.

Avatar
#54 John Chambers
May 29 2013, 07:50PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers

Watching Chicago their 3rd and 4th lines are full of bargains: Kruger, Shaw, Bickell, Stahlberg, Saad. Heck, even Bolland only makes 3.5M.

When the Hawks last won the cup they had Ladd, Byfuglien, Versteeg, all on ELC's or bargain second contracts.

Gagner is not a top-tier player, offensively or otherwise. His offensive #'s make him a $4M player, but his poor defense, lack of size, etc don't earn him a penny more. I'd say his leadership and try are worth another 250k, and his upside is worth maybe another 250, but he's pushing it at 4.5M and anything more is an overpay that could really hurt this team.

Avatar
#55 They're $hittie
May 29 2013, 07:59PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers

So we trade Gagner and Nuge isn't 100 percent or playing to 100 percent of his abilities until December. Wow we are screwed at center than. We are not signing a big UFA center who is 65+ points without paying 6m+.

Furthermore, would you ink nuge to his ENTITLED 6M dollar extension with the numbers he has produced in only one year, that averaged out are not much better than gagners first two while playing with better players. Even if you said no you would feel it fair and safe to extend him at 5.

A stupid precedent has been set. Management basically comes out and says these 4 or 5 players are going to make 6M because that is what the best player on the team (Hall) makes, and even though you are not as good, you will all make that also. Just to make sure we dont have to pay you more.

WHY SHOULD ANYONE ON THIS TEAM OR GOING FORWARD BE PAID AS MUCH AS HALL. RIGHT NOW NO ONE IS EVEN WITHIN TWO CLASSES OF HIM.

Avatar
#56 madjam
May 29 2013, 08:04PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers

Lowetide seems to think it is a priority to sign Gagner . I disagree at least until after draft day . He's more valuable to trade .if that be the course we take , at his present salary .

Avatar
#57 John Chambers
May 29 2013, 08:10PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers
They're $hittie wrote:

So overpaying Gagner 250K hurts this team but overpaying Eberle 1M doesnt?

Oh overpaying anybody hurts. It's just another value contract that the GM needs to offset it against, and last I checked there wasn't a burgeoning crop of 3rd / 4th line material in OKC to draw from.

Avatar
#58 DSF
May 29 2013, 08:16PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers
Taylor Gang wrote:

Okay let's be conservative and assume he gets 55 points in an 82 game season.

There's no way a player scoring 55 points a season would accept 4 million a year. That's chump change.

If this turns into O'Reilly v2, his value will drop a fair bit. If we REALLY were sold on him being our #2 (which I'm not) I'm thinking 4.5-5 x 4 is fair. If we thought about trading him, I would hope that it would be for another centre. Trade a winger if you want quality defensemen. I wonder how much a package centred (no pun intended) around Gagner would look if we went for someone like David Backes.

Gagner's P/60 5V5 this past season was 1.84 (95th in the league among forwards who played at least 40 games)

Tom Pyatt, Vernon Fiddler and Andrew Cogliano were some notable players who posted a better number.

Gagner has always received a great deal of primo icetime and PP opportunities (33rd in P/60 5V4) and still hasn't put up the numbers that you would think appropriate.

Considering the weaknesses in his defensive game it's risky business.

Avatar
#59 horndog77
May 29 2013, 08:16PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers

Can't trade him with nuge not 100 percent. Can't pay him big bucks or Edmonton will turn into Chicago from a few years ago. With the cap going down this year, they are going to have to clear space if there gonna sign him.

Avatar
#60 John Chambers
May 29 2013, 08:18PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers

@They're $hittie

You know what I'd do - I'd wait to see how much Tyler Bozak gets as a UFA and then go back to Gagner's agent and say "if your man was a UFA he'd get the same dime as Bozak".

It honestly can't be much more than $4M - at least not this year. Jiri Hudler is probably a good comparable at $16M over 4.

Gags probably won't take less than 4, so if they gave him term at $20M over 5 or (gulp) $24M over 6, I think everyone walks away happy.

Avatar
#61 bazmagoo
May 29 2013, 08:24PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers

Why not sign Bozak to 4 years - 20 million then trade Gagner for an asset. Personally I think Bozak is an upgrade on Gagner.

Gagner + Marincin + 1st pick 2014 for Pietrangelo.

Those two moves would make us a playoff team over night - move over MacT, lol

*edit* Before I get my head ripped off I know trading for Pietrangelo is a pipe dream. But I think signing Bozak for .5 million more than Gagner will likely get, then trading Gagner for an asset qualifies as a "bold move"

Avatar
#62 WhattaMike
May 29 2013, 08:35PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers

@shea78

Dude, I like Gagner as you do seemingly, and his being only 23 yrs old but.... after and since his rookie yr... he has only been adequate with question marks and negatives versus his point levels.

Thats not good enough as a top 2nd line centre. Now if he could play consistently and more like his one 8 pt night against Chicago...there would be virtually no real arguments to resign him as the oilers 2nd line go to guy

Avatar
#63 RexLibris
May 29 2013, 08:35PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers

I'd like the Oilers to try to leverage a lower cap hit for term, with the knowledge that the longer term likely doesn't limit his trade market value significantly.

If Gagner signed a four-year deal at 44.25, heck let's say $4.5 for the sake of argument, I think that would be a fair deal because they could always deal a young forward at a decent cap hit for picks or prospects if they need to clear salary space.

One also needs to consider, it isn't necessarily how much of a cap hit he presents this coming season as what that amounts to in years two and three of the contract. I sincerely believe that the cap will go up to $70 million again within a year or two. Couple that with the eventual absence of Horcoff's contract, and even with re-signing Yakupov, Nugent-Hopkins and J. Schultz, there ought to be enough room to afford the contract for the time being.

Avatar
#64 horndog77
May 29 2013, 08:37PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers

Personally think MacT is gonna have his work cut out for him this summer. Imagine what life will be like once nuge and yak are done their rookie contracts. Atleast Horcoffs, Smyths and Hemskys contracts will be finished by then. Still have to find and pay for that top pairing defenseman.

Avatar
#65 Klima's Mullet
May 29 2013, 08:41PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers
Smokey wrote:

I think he will be here long term as a winger. 4x4.5 is what he will get.

This...all day. And Hall to Center.

Avatar
#66 Rocket
May 29 2013, 08:54PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers

I like Gagner but if The Oilers can get something better or even replaceable then they should do it.

Lots of really well thought out & argued posts on this. Even DSF. Keep it classy ON.

Avatar
#68 NewAgeSys
May 29 2013, 08:58PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers

All of the young players will begin to sort themselves out soon enough.

Statistics are useless as valuation baselines so far,simply because in all reality there are only so many potential points to go around and even those numbers are system dependant.We cannot use tradition valuation methodologys anymore .Look at what Taylors bonus cost the teams 1st line in terms of balanced dynamic offensive projection?The line struggled for most of the year until adjustments to halls intent were forced upon him,and he was policed.Its a learning curve for Taylor and his line but not for the coaches who failed to remedy this in time.

Silent Sam is a core player here and carries the Oilers torch,he has earned every step of the way,nothing was given to him and he has endured tremendous critique,as he has his entire career,some Pros face this stigma their entire careers and put up star numbers over that timespan.

I predicted Sam would push for the scoring lead with Ebbs or Hall and I was absolutely right,I believe over 82 games he would have outscored Hall had Hall been managed properly on his line and not allowed to run wild so much and had Mps and Yak been put with and kept with Sam,Taylor wants to set his own learning curve,not gonna happen,wait till mac-T ties a 20lb weight to his inflight baggage with some PKing,and those rockets strapped to his feet get burned a little harder than they have so far.

We have more skill and talent than minutes,so obviously we will see a correction here and there and there will be contractual realisations some good some not so good.Things have no reason to change unless some miracle brings the Oilers the NewAge Hockey System and they can generate sunstantially more offense without loseing the defensive integrity they now have systemiclly.

An NHL 8 point night with all the Blue-bloods mouths hanging open watching their career platinum performance bar get jacked up over their heads by the most talented player on the roster.Jump in a time machine and go back and take the night back,or bite the bullet and man up.Or just ask Sammy real real nice what he was doing that night,good luck.I will bet you no other current Oiler will outdo that night and also that Sam will hit 6 points again next year at least twice maybe more if Yak is with him all year long,hell with yak he might reset the bar,ha ha ha.Finally I like stats.

Avatar
#69 shea78
May 29 2013, 09:04PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers
WhattaMike wrote:

@shea78

Dude, I like Gagner as you do seemingly, and his being only 23 yrs old but.... after and since his rookie yr... he has only been adequate with question marks and negatives versus his point levels.

Thats not good enough as a top 2nd line centre. Now if he could play consistently and more like his one 8 pt night against Chicago...there would be virtually no real arguments to resign him as the oilers 2nd line go to guy

I do like the compete level in this guy. What I am referring to is the fact that top six forwards are worth a ton. Centers are an even higher premium. Deal him away and get our D man.

Avatar
#70 Rocket
May 29 2013, 09:08PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers

@NewAgeSys

Gagner certainly can be a core player. On another team ;)

Avatar
#71 David S
May 29 2013, 09:09PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers

I honestly don't think Sam will walk if he doesn't get absolute top dollar. It's the term he'll be looking for. This is his gravy contract and I bet he knows it. 5 years anywhere north of $4M/yr gets it done.

Avatar
#72 15w40
May 29 2013, 09:15PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers

What's the going rate for an 2nd line winger that will see no time on the penalty kill and 2nd PP unit minutes??

I can't see over 4.0 avg on a 4 or 5 year deal.

And there shouldn't be a NTC or a NMC either.

Avatar
#73 speeds
May 29 2013, 09:16PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers
Lowetide wrote:

7 years? I like Gagner a lot, but seven years is a long, long time.

He would also be the youngest UFA of all time, according to MacT (group 3 UFA, I'm assuming he meant), if he becomes unrestricted next summer.

I don't disagree that 7 years is a long time, but it's an unusual situation. Gagner would be 31 when that hypothetical 7 year deal, signed next summer, would be over.

Avatar
#74 Rocket
May 29 2013, 09:17PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers

@David S

Yeah no kidding. He put in his time & now wants to settle down with a nice long term contract. If this is MacT's first decision, then it will live in infamy.

(I don't actually know if he wants to settle down)

Avatar
#75 NewAgeSys
May 29 2013, 09:38PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers
Rocket wrote:

Gagner certainly can be a core player. On another team ;)

I believe any man who can present average NHL physicality and cerebral acumen has the potential to be a part of a Stanley Cup winning team.I dont believe stats are as connected to individuals as everyone thinks,I believe some players consistantly fail to maintain and intentionally break systemic continuity a lot more than others and catalyse their own offense mustang style.Ovie comes to mind.This would get you benched by me eventually,probably sooner than later,hallsy wouldnt like me much.Show me a stat that delineates between system induced offense and individually catalysed offense that is found outside of systemic influences and we will chat.

Stats dont win games men do,and simply scoring goals doesnt win games,scoring timely goals win games.Silent Sam has the ability to score timely goals and make timely plays.There is no statistical valuation for decisionmaking acumen and timing,or instincts,or drive,or passion,or grit,jesus this is boring already,stats bashing is to easy and is now boring,no longer challenging.NOTHING of core value to the winning formula is stats based,zero,nada,nuntzig,bupkiss.

Stats are what you see when you look over your shoulder and we all know what happens when you do that in any type of race rightÉIntuition is what tells you where to put the next foot.Which one do you want leading the charge.

Avatar
#76 dougtheslug
May 29 2013, 09:41PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers

Yes I like what I see. And I'm not talking about Gagner's contact.

Avatar
#77 Rocket
May 29 2013, 09:55PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers

@NewAgeSys

Oh I agree Gagner has game. He plays with passion & puts team first so I'm not trying to ride the guy. I just don't know if The Oilers can afford him & all the other kids. Something's gotta give.

Avatar
#78 GVBlackhawk
May 29 2013, 10:10PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers
Supernova wrote:

It would be great If we could ink Sam to the Previous hemsky contract.

In my opinion Hemsky covered that deal well, and I think that would be exceptional contract for this team.

Seriously don't get why people want to get out from under Horcoff, his contract is finally good money and he is finally slotted where he should be.

Unless Mact is going to propose Horcoff to Tampa for Lecavalier at 60 % of his contract, we need to keep Horcoff.

Horcoff's contract is awful for the Oilers. His cap hit remains at $5.5M for the next two years. You can probably replace him with an equivalent player for $3.0-3.5M. That $2M+ savings goes a long way to improving other roster deficiencies.

I don't care if Daryl Katz gets good value for the next two years.

Avatar
#79 GVBlackhawk
May 29 2013, 10:16PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers
15w40 wrote:

What's the going rate for an 2nd line winger that will see no time on the penalty kill and 2nd PP unit minutes??

I can't see over 4.0 avg on a 4 or 5 year deal.

And there shouldn't be a NTC or a NMC either.

Gagner was actually one of the most effective penalty killers on the Oilers this season. It was his 5v5 play that was something less than desirable.

In my opinion, Gagner could make great strides in his overall game by shoring up his face-offs and cheating for defense. Specifically, he needs to do a better job covering his man in the slot area.

Avatar
#80 Quicksilver ballet
May 29 2013, 10:17PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers

@GVBlackhawk

For 1.5 you could replace Horcoff with someone who exeeds him in every statistical category. Kyle Wellwood is that guy. That's a 4 mill per season savings. 2 mill in savings, what could they do with 4 by going with Wellwood?

Avatar
#81 NewAgeSys
May 29 2013, 10:33PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers
Jamie B. wrote:

Sam's my favourite and I agree with MacT about his character, plus I'll be pissed if they played him through all those struggling years on a crappy team only to ditch him now, but I sincerely hope MacT plays hardass. Just spell it out for him: "Hey Sam, you wanna be around when we finally cash in all these last-place finishes and play on a pretty great team? Then you've gotta leave room for 93, 19 and 64 (or the d-man we trade someone for)."

If he'd rather have 5+ million and play in Florida or something, then you thank him for the six years of service and move him for as much as you can get. Totally Gagner's call.

Nice asessment,and I am glad Sam likes it here,however I am afraid that other teams have keyed in on some intangibles we loyal minions sometimes are blind to.Go away already Yotes!!

We are going to need to make an effort to hold on to Sam.Many teams are just like we were for a decade,trying to piece rosters together and balance size and skill,skill players are back in vogue and this isnt likely to change for the remainder of Sams career,he hit league evolution at a prime time for his personal skillset and package.Many teams have lots of lesser skilled bigger men who would cocoon Sam and give him much more room to work with than he will ever get here,if that happens we can all watch him make us look like idiots for ten years.

Pay attention to the comment that consistantly sneaks its way into Gagner conversations,his game elevates when he has quality linemates,this is because he is a good dynamic manager of his line as a centerman.Kudos to Mac-T for recognising that Sam can manage his line from the wing just as effectively as from the middle and from the wing he can bury the puck which really is what we drafted him to do for us.

Sure sure,we take a 6th overall kid at 18 and let him roll free offensively for a year and a half,then we put the hammer down and force him to become a defensively responsible NHLer in is sophmore year and the next two which he effectively does,then we ask him to become a dynamic playmaker at the NHL level which he effectively does,oh yes we should trade him or bust his balls over a few bucks right.Maybe we should go for the true trifecta and give him a year to focus on scoring goals and only scoring goals,just for the hell of it seeing as that is why we drafted the man after all right.

For the record every time Sam is on the ice I am waiting and expecting something positive to happen and this means others are doing the same thing,this means he is an exciting player who catalyses the playaction on the ice at both ends.

The question isnt if you can do things at the NHL level,it is can you do what I ask when I ask at the NHL level,and Gagner can deliver on that requirement consistantly,this is his biggest strength and our single biggest area of need rosterwide.Its a communication and Intuitive skillset that is hard to find,and Sam works on it diligently and consistantly ,and judging by how Yakupov evolved comparatively to Gagners strengths this past season,he can also teach teammates this skillset through osmosis on the ice.

Avatar
#82 madjam
May 29 2013, 10:34PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers

Perhaps we should send Gagner and Hemsky to our parent club the L.A. Kings for Bernier and their first round pick ? That way we can watch them in Stanley Cup quest next year with all the other Oilers we send them . Sometimes I wonder if we are not their farm club - even Gretzky .

Avatar
#83 DSF
May 29 2013, 10:39PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers
GVBlackhawk wrote:

I see your logic but I would want a better possession player than Wellwood at 3C. I think it would be better value for the money to get a Boyd Gordon-type player; a player who can handle tougher minutes than a Wellwood can.

Wellwood's "possession" numbers are just fine.

Corsi Rel +3.0

Corsi ON +2.05

OFF Zone start - 48.0%

OFF Zone finish - 52.6%

Qual Comp - +.003 (4th on the Jets)

You could replace either Horcoff or Gagner with Wellwood and, if you used the cap savings on a big productive winger, you would be ahead of the game.

Avatar
#84 Serious Gord
May 29 2013, 10:43PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers
Quicksilver ballet wrote:

This team isn't going anywhere till these guys are gone. Horcoff, Hemsky and Gagner, all have huge holes in their game. The only thing Gags has going for him is when the Oilers are shooting fish in a barrel when in the offensive zone, and his give a ship meter has a reading on it compared to these other two supposed leaders. All three of these guys struggle, from the opponents blue line back to the Oilers goal line.

A chain is only as strong as it's weakest link, Edmonton has three on the same chain/team. This concludes this public service announcement, we now return you to your regularly scheduled programming.

I agree 100%.

But also am very certain that MacT is in love with him and will over pay and over term him and probably throw in a Ntc.

This team chronically falls In love with the inventory. They are the Bay while the Elite teams are Walmart target et al.

Avatar
#85 15w40
May 29 2013, 10:57PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers

Depending on who they pick up to shore up the centre position, I think #4, #14, and #93 may see more time on the PK.

Pajaarvi, if he is still here will also see quite a bit of PK duty I'm guessing.

Need somebody that can have at least a 50/50 success rate on the dot.

I didn't really know how much time Gagner spent on the PK but with his reported defensive short-comings, I would have thought there to be better options.

I was surprised to see they ranked in the top 10

Avatar
#86 DSF
May 29 2013, 11:01PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers
15w40 wrote:

Depending on who they pick up to shore up the centre position, I think #4, #14, and #93 may see more time on the PK.

Pajaarvi, if he is still here will also see quite a bit of PK duty I'm guessing.

Need somebody that can have at least a 50/50 success rate on the dot.

I didn't really know how much time Gagner spent on the PK but with his reported defensive short-comings, I would have thought there to be better options.

I was surprised to see they ranked in the top 10

Gagner spent 1:35 SHTOI/G.

That was 7th among Oilers forwards.

Avatar
#87 DSF
May 29 2013, 11:22PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers
Taylor Gang wrote:

Okay crazy thought here... But WHAT IF he picks up right where he left off in a points perspective? Would we be willing to cope with his small stature?

In his last 20 games he scored 3 goals and 11 points. (-7)

That pro-rates over an 82 game season to 12 goals and 44 points. (-28)

Considering he played during the lockout and many other players were just getting up to speed, I'd be very wary of his production last season.

When the games mattered, he was dreadful.

Avatar
#88 Supernova
May 29 2013, 11:31PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers
GVBlackhawk wrote:

Horcoff's contract is awful for the Oilers. His cap hit remains at $5.5M for the next two years. You can probably replace him with an equivalent player for $3.0-3.5M. That $2M+ savings goes a long way to improving other roster deficiencies.

I don't care if Daryl Katz gets good value for the next two years.

Horcoff's contract was horrible, now it is average to below average.

If you can improve on that player without a huge cost you do it. If you can move him for a asset you do it. If you are just buying him out that makes no sense at all.

Horcoff is not the issue with this team, in the playoffs the players like Horcoff excel and are valuable.

What's the harm in signing Wellwood and keeping Horcoff?

The cap hit is a complete non-factor. In two years when it is a factor it will be gone but we are dealing in the next season.

Maybe even by him out next year but unless you can improve dramatically on him you don't this year. The grass is always greener with other players.

Avatar
#89 GVBlackhawk
May 29 2013, 11:34PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers
DSF wrote:

Wellwood's "possession" numbers are just fine.

Corsi Rel +3.0

Corsi ON +2.05

OFF Zone start - 48.0%

OFF Zone finish - 52.6%

Qual Comp - +.003 (4th on the Jets)

You could replace either Horcoff or Gagner with Wellwood and, if you used the cap savings on a big productive winger, you would be ahead of the game.

Those numbers are okay, but sure, he is definitely better value than Horcoff when you consider cap hit.

Avatar
#90 Supernova
May 29 2013, 11:36PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers
DSF wrote:

In his last 20 games he scored 3 goals and 11 points. (-7)

That pro-rates over an 82 game season to 12 goals and 44 points. (-28)

Considering he played during the lockout and many other players were just getting up to speed, I'd be very wary of his production last season.

When the games mattered, he was dreadful.

DSF ,

You love to skew the field, and take small samples sizes.

Trade Hemsky move gagner to wing ( or injury replacement 2C) draft a 2C.

By the way you and I bantered about using the Canucks as a "model team" with their Centers.

They would have loved to have a Horcoff type player rather than Roy.

Avatar
#91 GVBlackhawk
May 29 2013, 11:41PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers
Supernova wrote:

Horcoff's contract was horrible, now it is average to below average.

If you can improve on that player without a huge cost you do it. If you can move him for a asset you do it. If you are just buying him out that makes no sense at all.

Horcoff is not the issue with this team, in the playoffs the players like Horcoff excel and are valuable.

What's the harm in signing Wellwood and keeping Horcoff?

The cap hit is a complete non-factor. In two years when it is a factor it will be gone but we are dealing in the next season.

Maybe even by him out next year but unless you can improve dramatically on him you don't this year. The grass is always greener with other players.

If you can get a similar player and save $2.0+ million dollars on cap hit, why would you keep the overpriced guy?

That $2.0+ cap hit can be used to shore up the defense or other weakness.

Failure to recognize this is poor management.

Avatar
#92 Supernova
May 29 2013, 11:56PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers
GVBlackhawk wrote:

If you can get a similar player and save $2.0+ million dollars on cap hit, why would you keep the overpriced guy?

That $2.0+ cap hit can be used to shore up the defense or other weakness.

Failure to recognize this is poor management.

I am saying they are not in a cap issue state this year.

Why not add that same guy and move away from Horcoff next year. You can even move Horcoff down the line up or to wing if the other guy is better.

The problem is until we know the guy is better why move on. Oilers are not stuck for cap space and highly unlikely to acquire a guy ( weber) that would use all that space.

We need players on the 3 and 4 lines that can play, and we need Center depth.

Unless MacT is signing 3 Centers this summer, we won't have that depth.

Avatar
#93 NewfoundlandOil
May 30 2013, 06:13AM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers

This talk of replacing Horcoff with Wellwood is a bit strange.

I get the cap hit might be lower, but really who cares.

MacT and much of the fan base insist the lineup needs to get bigger and there is one Wellwood stat that trumps all.

Height: 5' 10" Weight: 181

I am not a big believer that size is the answer, but why bring in a smaller guy for the 3C or 2C slot just to save a couple mill in cap space/salary.

MacT would get roasted for this move.

See if you can sign Gagner at $4 Mil/over 3-4 years (move him to wing if another centre is available) and ride out Horcoff's contract for another year, if he wants to stay. Trade Hemsky.

Avatar
#94 They're $hittie
May 30 2013, 06:35AM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers
15w40 wrote:

Depending on who they pick up to shore up the centre position, I think #4, #14, and #93 may see more time on the PK.

Pajaarvi, if he is still here will also see quite a bit of PK duty I'm guessing.

Need somebody that can have at least a 50/50 success rate on the dot.

I didn't really know how much time Gagner spent on the PK but with his reported defensive short-comings, I would have thought there to be better options.

I was surprised to see they ranked in the top 10

gagner was the oilers best pk guy. he had a bad year. last year he lead the oilers in plus minus and had one of the better scoring chance differentials on the team. Last year the oilers leading scorer had the most scoring chances for but the worst differential on the team. Defensive game is a tough one to measure.

http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_statistics.php?ds=25&s=24&f1=2012_s&f2=4v5&f5=EDM&c=0+1+3+5+4+6+7+17+18+19+20+21+22+23+24+25+26+27+28#

Avatar
#95 brad
May 30 2013, 06:43AM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers
GVBlackhawk wrote:

Gagner spent 1:35 TOI/60 4v5 -- that is 6th among Oilers forwards who played 20+ games. And he only started getting PK ice time when Belanger (and Horcoff) went down with injuries.

Finished with a Corsi Relative Quality of Competition of +2.996, which led the team.

Not something to brag about seeing our results I would say. I like Gags, but he gets pushed off the puck way to much in the offensive zone simply because of his size. If we keep him he needs size wingers, or he will remain by far ineffective in games except for a few good outtings when the other team is equally as physical as our game is.

Avatar
#96 mayorblaine
May 30 2013, 06:46AM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers

if Horcoff goes, Sam has to stay.

if he stays then 3yr -4.25, or 4yr 4.

if Horcoff stays, bye Sam.

Avatar
#97 GVBlackhawk
May 30 2013, 08:11AM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers
NewfoundlandOil wrote:

This talk of replacing Horcoff with Wellwood is a bit strange.

I get the cap hit might be lower, but really who cares.

MacT and much of the fan base insist the lineup needs to get bigger and there is one Wellwood stat that trumps all.

Height: 5' 10" Weight: 181

I am not a big believer that size is the answer, but why bring in a smaller guy for the 3C or 2C slot just to save a couple mill in cap space/salary.

MacT would get roasted for this move.

See if you can sign Gagner at $4 Mil/over 3-4 years (move him to wing if another centre is available) and ride out Horcoff's contract for another year, if he wants to stay. Trade Hemsky.

Nice contradiction. You don't believe size is the answer but you clearly state that Wellwood is a small player..."there is one stat that trumps all".

And for the last time, you don't want a 3C with a cap hit of 5.5M per season. Those dollars can be more effectively spent elsewhere.

Avatar
#98 15w40
May 30 2013, 09:28AM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers

@They're $hittie

When I looked on the Oilers' website, there were 21 names listed ahead of Gagner based on +/-.

Not the only indicator but it doesn't look great.

Not that it matters to the PK as based on my understanding you don't get a minus as a penalty killer if you are on for a goal against.

Might be wrong.

Edit: I'm not running #89 out of town - just commenting on where he might fit in the Oilers' payrole structure

Avatar
#99 2004Z06
May 30 2013, 09:34AM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers

This article is about Gagner, not Horcoff! So sick of the Horcoff crap. His situation will sort itself out over the next year or two. Let it go already!

As for Gagner...He is one of the few assets that are in high demand over this summer. Very few centers available that are young and have no term left on contract. He is prime trade bait this year.

If he stays, he needs to be moved to the wing. He lacks three prime assets that are a MUST in a centerman. His faceoff numbers are horrific, his size/physicality are lacking (not his fault, simply genetics) and he is a defensive liability in his own zone every time he is on the ice.

Sign and trade, trade, or sign and move to the wing. Those are the only three options. Lots of teams looking for scoring depth out there. Hemsky + Gagner could bring back a solid D man or big C.

I still think Burmistrov is a 2C option on the cheap....Could be great with Yakupov and maybe Nishushkin....

Avatar
#100 LinkfromHyrule
May 30 2013, 10:05AM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers

I think Gagner gets signed, in the 4-4.5 for 4-5 year range. I hope he gets signed. You can't place dollar value on the leadership skills he has. His give a crap meter is always at 100%.

Also how in the heck do any of you think we can or should ship horcoff out? Who is going to want a 3C, 4C on a good team, center at 5.5 mil a year.... We would have to take on some of his salary and still get garbage in return. I would rather ship hemsky out personally

Comments are closed for this article.