Edmonton Oilers: Shots vs. scoring chances

Jonathan Willis
May 03 2013 09:04AM

Up front, three forwards separated themselves from the pack in both their ability to out-shoot and out-chance the opposition; on the back end one defenceman is well clear of the pack in those same metrics.

One quick note: the charts below express even-strength scoring chances and shots for/against as percentages. Fifty percent is the break-even mark, meaning that a player was on the ice for as many shots or chances for as against; over 50 percent indicates they were winning the battle while under indicates the opposition was. As the Oilers were not a very good a team, most of the players were under 50 percent.

The relationship between shots and scoring chances is a close one, with very little difference between the two, although a few players fared better in one category or the other.

Forwards

The Oilers forwards this year broadly fit into three groups:

The three. Taylor Hall, Jordan Eberle and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins were head-and-shoulders above everybody else in the forward group, well north of 50% in both shots and scoring chances.

The middle of the pack. Most of the Oilers forwards fall into this category. Teemu Hartikainen and Sam Gagner are probably the most interesting – the black diagonal line shows the relationship between shots and scoring chances, and they’re the two furthest away from that line. By the shot totals, Hartikainen did pretty well, but in terms of scoring chances he was well back; Gagner was the opposite in that he did pretty well by scoring chances but not so well by shots.

The rest. Eric Belanger seems bent on playing himself out of the major leagues, and he had a better season by these marks than Ben Eager (waived, unclaimed, demoted to the NHL), Lennart Petrell and Mike Brown.

Defencemen

It’s worth keeping in mind that things like quality of competition aren’t being considered here, but Mark Fistric – despite, by eye, a pretty mediocre puck-handling game – excels in this category. I’ve been on the fence about this player, but the on-ice shots and scoring chances both paint the picture of a guy who had success in a third-pairing role.

Ryan Whitney lags the pack in a pretty significant way. Justin Schultz too likely could have used a bunch of time on the third pairing or even in the press-box as the year went on, by these numbers he was pretty clearly in over his head.

I can’t help but wonder to what degree Petry and Smid saw their numbers hampered by their role; my view is that both are good defenceman but as a pairing they’re much better suited to a three/four role than the one/two role they were forced into this year.

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Jonathan Willis is a freelance writer. He currently works for Oilers Nation, the Edmonton Journal and Bleacher Report. He's co-written three books and worked for myriad websites, including Grantland, ESPN, The Score, and Hockey Prospectus. He was previously the founder and managing editor of Copper & Blue.
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#51 kgo
May 03 2013, 09:33PM
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DSF wrote:

How about not driving the franchise into the ditch and missing the playoffs 10 years out of the 13 he has been running the team.

You may want to blame some of that woeful record on Steve Tambellini but, who hired Tambellini?

Lowe did.

Now, Lowe may be a stand up community oriented guy but that and 5 bucks will get you you a Grande Latte at Starbucks.

Fact is, he has been a dreadful failure as a hockey executive.

Results. Matter.

Thank you DSF, for admitting that he may be a stand up community guy. I agree that his record is gross, but 13 is a small sample size lol....

Just promise me this, if your going to blame tambi's record on lowe, you must also credit MacT's success to lowe.

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#52 Quicksilver ballet
May 03 2013, 10:05PM
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Anyone watching the Oilkings?

How does Jones look?

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#53 The Beaker
May 03 2013, 10:37PM
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@Kgo

No... You have a comprehension problem don't you? Read what I wrote.

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#54 dougtheslug
May 03 2013, 10:56PM
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Quicksilver ballet wrote:

Anyone watching the Oilkings?

How does Jones look?

Watching the Oil Kings is such a strange , unfamiliar experience - cheering for a team that is defensively watertight, offensively coordinated and relentless, resilient, can push back - hard - when pushed. Great performance tonight, 4-1 win - Jones is definitely elite but Oil Kings D - anchored by Mucil and Gernat- was better tonight.

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#55 DSF
May 03 2013, 10:57PM
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kgo wrote:

Thank you DSF, for admitting that he may be a stand up community guy. I agree that his record is gross, but 13 is a small sample size lol....

Just promise me this, if your going to blame tambi's record on lowe, you must also credit MacT's success to lowe.

13 years is HUGE sample size.

MacT hasn't had any success.

Dream on.

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#56 The Beaker
May 03 2013, 11:08PM
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DSF wrote:

13 years is HUGE sample size.

MacT hasn't had any success.

Dream on.

This is coming from the guy who would probably say columbus' coach has been a success this year?

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#57 @Oilanderp
May 04 2013, 03:41AM
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Umm, why doesn't anyone explicitly mention Potter? Looks good by this metric. He was +8 this year. +8.

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#58 K_Mart
May 04 2013, 06:32AM
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I love the Fist Meister. He may have the puck handling skills of a one eyed tyrannosaurus rex, but he throws more devastating,hits than anyone I've seen in an oilers uniform since... since... well maybe ever.

when I saw him manhandle Jumbo Joe behind our net like a rag doll, I knew he was a keeper. When you have a guy who's sole goal in life is to flatten the opposition and get the puck deep, you have a winner. Sure he was caught out of position jumping up in the play to make a hit, or leaving his side of the ice to make a hit, but he also gives us 5 seconds of 5v4 time every time he lands one of those hits. He's exactly what this team needs for it's #6 dman, and he's everything I always hoped Teddy Peckman would become. So good riddance Theo.

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#59 Serious Gord
May 04 2013, 09:52AM
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@kgo

What a load of hogwash.

First if you didn't shut up about knowing how to Fly a copter people would quickly tune you out. I suspect that may by the case inside the oil for Lowe

Second if Lowe has been held accountable he would have been fired a few years ago. He still has his job - he's failed at it thus he has not been held accountable.

Third his record as a player is irrelevant to his merits and ability as a hockey manager/executive. There are probably hundreds of players who were better than Lowe who sucked as bad or worse in hockey once their playing career was over. Using ones record as a player to bolster your management bona fides - especially after the team you are president of has the worst record of any team over th last four years not only makes you look like an egotisitical idiot but confirms that you are.

Fourth if Lowe wants to be the good community guy I welcome it - as long as he emulates lanny Macdonald and gets the hell out of the oilers management.

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#60 DSF
May 04 2013, 11:29AM
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The Beaker wrote:

This is coming from the guy who would probably say columbus' coach has been a success this year?

Last time I looked, MacT was not coach of the Oilers but is instead the GM.

He has had zero success at that position.

His coaching record was mediocre at best.

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#61 Serious Gord
May 04 2013, 01:08PM
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Lets put. This whole MacT and Lowe discussion into perspective by using a different analogy:

When either of these guys was playing would anyone have unquestioningly gone along with them permanently changing the position they played:

IOW would making Lowe a first line center with no trials in a minor league be considered foolish, Ill-advised, reckless, and having a high risk of failure?

I think it's safe to emphatically "yes" to all accompanied by a "what the hell are you thinking?"

Sure Lowe and MacT had skills as players of a certain type but there is no way one can say that they could have succeeded playing different roles even playing hockey.

That this organization seems incapable of or unwilling to see that says a lot about the teams priorities and culture. A culture that at least in part has contributed to the worst record in the NHL over the last five years.

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#62 The Beaker
May 04 2013, 02:54PM
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@DSF

Well last I checked he hasn't been GM for 13 years either .... So sample size what? His coaching record had ups and downs but he generally made the most out of mediocre lineups. (Hence the CBJ reference)

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#63 DSF
May 04 2013, 03:50PM
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The Beaker wrote:

Well last I checked he hasn't been GM for 13 years either .... So sample size what? His coaching record had ups and downs but he generally made the most out of mediocre lineups. (Hence the CBJ reference)

No he hasn't.

So why was he hired for the job with zero experience?

One tends to give him a pass while coach, laying the blame on Lowe for giving him crappy teams but he was part of the brain trust and no doubt played a role in sending away Glencross, Hejda, Stoll, Greene etc.

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#64 The Beaker
May 04 2013, 05:53PM
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DSF wrote:

No he hasn't.

So why was he hired for the job with zero experience?

One tends to give him a pass while coach, laying the blame on Lowe for giving him crappy teams but he was part of the brain trust and no doubt played a role in sending away Glencross, Hejda, Stoll, Greene etc.

Meh, yes and no. Many of those teams were sub par because of lack of funds as well. All I can say is that this Mactavish hiring will basically be judged in the future based on what happens this summer. Lets wait and see what happens then and then we can start picking things apart.

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#65 DSF
May 04 2013, 06:12PM
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The Beaker wrote:

Meh, yes and no. Many of those teams were sub par because of lack of funds as well. All I can say is that this Mactavish hiring will basically be judged in the future based on what happens this summer. Lets wait and see what happens then and then we can start picking things apart.

I hear Jim Nill was available.

Just saying.

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