13-14 QUESTIONS FOR 13-14

Lowetide
June 15 2013 06:49PM

Between now and training camp, we can expect a lot of changes. New GM Craig MacTavish will work all summer to upgrade the roster in areas of need--center, defense, goal. As we've done in past summers, let's have a look at some of the major questions and see if we can predict what is going to happen.

  1. Who will they take in the first round? Sean Monahan Oilers have three strong options. Deal up for Barkov, stay the course at 7 and select Monahan, Horvat or Nurse, or deal down in hopes Horvat is there (with Curtis Lazar as a possible backup plan). I think there are so many attractive options before Monahan that he slips to #7 and the Oilers grab him.
  2. Who will help Dallas Eakins coach? The Oilers have to put together a coaching staff that can come together quickly, so my guess is that Eakins adds Derek King from his AHL staff and the Oilers keep Steve Smith from last year's group. Mark Lamb completes the staff, with Kelly Buchberger moving to another role in the organization. 
  3. How will they improve the defense? MacT has already added the Russian Belov and I believe the club will be active during the summer, too. We've already heard rumors about Paul Ranger, and I believe Edmonton will add Russian defenseman Fedor Tyutin in a blockbuster deal. He'll help form a top 6D that might go Tyutin-Petry, Smid-J Schultz, N Schultz-Belov and Paul Ranger.
  4. What's the 'wow' trade? I think the Howson connection sees Edmonton acquire Tyutin, L RJ Umberger and C Ryan Johansen from the Blue Jackets in exchange for Sam Gagner, Martin Marincin and Ales Hemsky.
  5. Will they move Hall to center? No. I think the club will use Nuge, Johansen and two free agent signings/trades up the middle. I do not think Monahan makes the team under any circumstances. Among the candidates I can see arriving in Edmonton to play center: Alexander Burmistrov, Boyd Gordon.
  6. Who will the Oilers sign to backup Devan Dubnyk? I think the Oilers will find a way to trade for a suitable backup, perhaps Eddie Lack from Vancouver. I do like Jason Labarbera, but will guess that Ben Scrivens arrives in Edmonton in a summer trade.
  7. What will the top 2 lines look like in the fall? Nuge-Hall-Eberle with Johansen-Paajarvi/Umberger-Yakupov. The club may also attempt to sign a winger with size, but those guys are at a premium. 
  8. How many of their own rfa's does Edmonton sign? Only Paajarvi.
  9. Surprise opening night roster player? Ben Eager.
  10. What current roster player on another team has the best chance of being an Oiler in 13-14? Viktor Stalberg.
  11. Where does Horcoff land? Detroit or Florida or Edmonton.
  12. Why do they trade Gagner? Money. Tambellini not getting a long term deal done cost the Oilers. He blew it, and now MacTavish doesn't have enough coin.
  13. Why did they let Hartikainen go to the KHL? Three things: he didn't get a lot done (read: anything!) at even strength in the NHL, his conditioning wasn't where it needed to be and he is not a natural PF--he's not a mean player by nature.

WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN?

  • Nuge-Hall-Eberle
  • Johansen-Paajarvi-Yakupov
  • Burmistrov-Umberger-Stalberg
  • Gordon-Smyth-Brown
  • Lander-Eager
  • Tyutin-Petry
  • Smid-J Schultz
  • N Schultz-Belov
  • Ranger
  • Dubnyk-Scrivens

Nine additions. A summer of change.

C2a6955161684b5e3189319acfa5ebe4
Lowetide has been one of the Oilogosphere's shining lights for over a century. You can check him out here at OilersNation and at lowetide.ca. He is also the host of Lowdown with Lowetide weekday mornings 10-noon on Team 1260.
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Change is Good.

KLowe needs to be changed next tho

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#2 Toro
June 15 2013, 07:00PM
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Please please please dont move back in the draft and take Lazar this guy is a plug , can't understand why Oilers have such a boner for this dud , he'll be biggest first round flop for the Oilers since Alex Plante..

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#3 mlcselli
June 15 2013, 07:02PM
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Lowetide, wouldn't this be great if the line up works out this way. Is there any way you can get this article to MacT?

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#4 Colin
June 15 2013, 07:10PM
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Hemsky, Rajala, Fedun, 7th overall for Yandel and 10th. Phoenix needs offense. May have to take some of Hemsky's contract too.

Deal prospect Dman (Tuebert) and later round pick for Shenn and Briere. I know, doesn't sound fair but, Philli is in cap crunch. Oilers buyout Briere and Philli resigns him for 1.25M. Briere stays where he wants, makes more money, Philli frees up 10M in cap space to chase Petrlangelo or Shattinkirk. Puts pressure on Blues and when Philli signs offer sheet, Oilers offer Stewart offer sheet. Blues face tough decision.

One can dream. Can't one?

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#5 Citizen David
June 15 2013, 07:11PM
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I yelled "NO!!!" when I read that wow trade. I really hope your predictions aren't true. Wouldn't mind Tyutin but trading Gags and Marincin, drafting Monahan, and going after Scrivens would not make me happy one bit.

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#6 Citizen David
June 15 2013, 07:13PM
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@Toro

I can't understand why you think Lazar will be a dud. Has all the tools. Worst case scenario he's a good third center. Best case he's a good second line center.

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#7 kdunbar
June 15 2013, 07:14PM
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Do you really see Columbus making that deal? I love it if this were to happen, especially with Klefbomb and Monahan having time to develop.

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#8 Razor
June 15 2013, 07:14PM
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Not much ever happens. A trade here and there. Oilers will pick 7th if Monahan is there they will pick him if not then Lindholm.

Don't believe the hype, just ask Lou

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#9 geno
June 15 2013, 07:16PM
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Toro wrote:

Please please please dont move back in the draft and take Lazar this guy is a plug , can't understand why Oilers have such a boner for this dud , he'll be biggest first round flop for the Oilers since Alex Plante..

Not at all a flop. Probably one of the safest guys in the draft. I guarantee he'll be a 3rd line C in the NHL

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#10 gcw_rocks
June 15 2013, 07:19PM
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Keeping with the Leafs theme, I think they sign Macarthur instead of Stalberg.

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#11 fifthcartel
June 15 2013, 07:19PM
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If there is as much change as here, I will be ecstatic. Either way, I'm still eager (pun intended) to see what moves happen.

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#12 fifthcartel
June 15 2013, 07:20PM
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Agreed on Gagner, if they almost went to arbitration last year, I don't expect this to be any easier.

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#14 Mikey
June 15 2013, 07:21PM
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I could definitely get behind that lineup.

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#15 MarcusBillius
June 15 2013, 07:33PM
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Monahan won't be there at 7. Calgary is taking him, or whoever Calgary trades 7 with.

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#16 Mike Krushelnyski
June 15 2013, 07:33PM
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LT, aren't you glad there were no sports blogs in 97-98? These articles would be murder.

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#18 DSF
June 15 2013, 07:47PM
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Let's examine the WOW trade in some detail.

Columbus takes on almost $10M in salary (when Gagner gets paid) in return for a top pairing defenseman, a player (Umberger) who is pretty much a match for Gagner in points scored and brings a lot more to the table and a former first round pick.

The Oilers are willing to throw in Marincin (who the Jackets don't need because they are loaded with D prospects) and an overpaid Hemsky.

The Jackets already acquired their "Hemsky" when they got Gaborik.

If you want a Jackets defenseman, start with Jack Johnson or go home.

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#19 Oilcan
June 15 2013, 07:51PM
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Would love to see the CBJ trade. What would it take to get burmistov out of Winnipeg? Would love to see a package deal for bogosion and burmistov.

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#20 Keith
June 15 2013, 07:53PM
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Why don't Oilers trade Horcoff for Toews.

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#22 Oilers42
June 15 2013, 08:11PM
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Hall-Barkov-Yakupov Horton-RNH-Eberle Paajarvi-Burmistrov-Bickell Petrell-Gordon-Brown Smyth

Yandle-Shultz Klefbom/Belov-J.Johnson/Belov Smid-Petry

Dubnyk Khudobin

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#23 Derek
June 15 2013, 08:15PM
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Lindholm is always left out.

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#24 PutzStew
June 15 2013, 08:16PM
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DSF wrote:

Let's examine the WOW trade in some detail.

Columbus takes on almost $10M in salary (when Gagner gets paid) in return for a top pairing defenseman, a player (Umberger) who is pretty much a match for Gagner in points scored and brings a lot more to the table and a former first round pick.

The Oilers are willing to throw in Marincin (who the Jackets don't need because they are loaded with D prospects) and an overpaid Hemsky.

The Jackets already acquired their "Hemsky" when they got Gaborik.

If you want a Jackets defenseman, start with Jack Johnson or go home.

True

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#25 PutzStew
June 15 2013, 08:17PM
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@Lowetide

Dosen't JD like coachable players? Why would he want Hemsky?

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#26 NewfoundlandOil
June 15 2013, 08:18PM
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@DSF

Or put another way.....if you will tolerate my insolent behaviour......

Edmonton trades away 58 NHL points in 2012-2013 for 46 NHL points.

Yes you are right the trade suggestion is completely unrealistic.

Thanks for bringing the wet blanket to the discussion.

The fact that the Jackets traded for Gaborik is exactly why they will trade for "a" Hemsky....they need offence.

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#27 T__Bone88
June 15 2013, 08:29PM
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Friedman mentioned that Carolina might deal the 5th overall and that Edm was in possible conversations with them. If that happened the trade would look very similar to the Tor-Nyi trade that moved Tor up to grab Schenn. Best case scenario moving up to 5th is if Tampa takes Nichushkin which means Nashville would take Drouin leaving Barkov for Edm. At worst case they would end up with Monahan if Tampa took Drouin and Nashville took Barkov.

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#28 WhattaMike
June 15 2013, 08:36PM
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Hey LT, on Issue 4 I can see your point for the players involved as a possible trade deal between the Oilers and B.Jackets. A lot of guys already saying that Columbus is taking on 10 mil extra per yr haven't even looked at the salaries for the players yet...doorknobs!!!

Gagner is now an RFA and will look at money in the 4.5 to 5 mil range per yr as will be Johansen next yr. Hemsky at $5 mil for one yr is only but a 400,000.00 difference between him and Umberger... but Umberger is signed up for four more yrs.

Thats a favor the Oil does for Columbus for sure. They bare stuck with Umberger not Columbus and yet he fills a definite 3rd line centre need for at least two to three yrs for sure. Now Marancin being addedinto this makes sense too although I would rather the Oil trade Gernat as he is more so closer to the NHL right now than Gernat is. But....both polayers are very much identical in size talent and skill.

But Tyutin is worth it to be part of the new D core..and he is signed up for 5 more yrs too at $4.5 million.

SO.....How do all those guys saying Columbus pays out too much for this when the Oil will be looking at close to #14 mil per season with the three of Tyutin, Umberger and Johansen's new next contract after this season?????

If we keep the #7 and get Monahan, Lindholm or Horvat, I am very comfortable with that, or...and also, even if the Oilers then choose Nurse to take over Marancin's place in the system...thats not too bad.

Not too bad I guess

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#29 DigDeepNBleedBlue
June 15 2013, 08:40PM
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It's a guessing game for most of your assumptions, but the one I feel you hit the nail on the head is No. 9. Eager will be on the roster. He should have been during the last ten games of last season......

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#30 DSF
June 15 2013, 08:50PM
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Lowetide wrote:

Canucks look like they'll finally win the Stanley this year! Congrats!

Gagner has value, Jackets need a skill C and offensive help (Hemsky). The give up a prospect in Johansen but get one in Marincin.

The trade is Tyutin for Gagner, Hemsky for Umberger and the prospects for each other.

Oh, good grief.

Gagner for a top pairing defenseman? Good luck with that.

Hemsky at his $5M cap hit in return for Umberger with a lower cap hit and better performance when they've already acquired Gaborik?

And a centre prospect for a D prospect the Jackets don't need?

Have you even looked at the Jackets D depth?

Bottom line is the Jackets don't need Gagner, Hemsky or Marincin.

Why would they give up two of their best players to get them?

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#31 DSF
June 15 2013, 08:52PM
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NewfoundlandOil wrote:

Or put another way.....if you will tolerate my insolent behaviour......

Edmonton trades away 58 NHL points in 2012-2013 for 46 NHL points.

Yes you are right the trade suggestion is completely unrealistic.

Thanks for bringing the wet blanket to the discussion.

The fact that the Jackets traded for Gaborik is exactly why they will trade for "a" Hemsky....they need offence.

Obviously, they already got it.

Hemsky is no Gabrorik and Hemsky is vastly overpaid for what he delivers.

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#32 Oilers4ever
June 15 2013, 08:58PM
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Those are good suggestions but columbus would never do that trade. Gagner is small... Hemmer is injury prone.... And Marincin is unproven. Not a hope that deal happens.

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#33 RexLibris
June 15 2013, 09:00PM
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1. Who will they take in the first round? Wouldn't mind seeing Lindholm there, but as you say, the field is pretty wide open here, depending on how things break with the top six teams.

2. Who will help Dallas Eakins coach? Mark Lamb back to coach the Oilers? That almost seems too reasonable to believe.

3. How will they improve the defense? See below.

4. What's the 'wow' trade? Love to see that trade made, but the only thing I'd alter is giving up Musil over Marincin. Heck, I'd throw them virtually any other player on the Barons save Lander, Marincin and Gernat.

5. Will they move Hall to center? Agreed. Let Hall do that LW voodoo that he does so well. Burmistrov is interesting, but I'm not sure it comes to pass. I've been arguing for Gordon in Oilers silks for two seasons now, so no argument here.

6. Who will the Oilers sign to backup Devan Dubnyk? I've long ago given up getting too deep into goalie talk. It's all witchcraft and hocus pocus for all we can understand.

7. What will the top 2 lines look like in the fall? Nuge-Hall-Eberle with Johansen-Paajarvi/Umberger-Yakupov. The club may also attempt to sign a winger with size, but those guys are at a premium. (My response: please and thank you!)

8. How many of their own rfa's does Edmonton sign? Agreed on Paajarvi.

10. Surprise opening night roster player? Sidney Crosby! No? Fine then.

One thing that I think may come up this summer is the 2014 1st round pick (possibly with protections). I wouldn't put it past MacTavish to really lay the cards on the table and deal that pick for a player that "completes the picture" in his eyes. Put another way, being a former coach, I don't think he balks at giving his new guy the best tools he can to get the job done.

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#34 John Chambers
June 15 2013, 09:00PM
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LT - do you think the fact that Gagner isn't yet signed is indicative of the fact he's is play? Clearly Paajarvi is available and we would want to leave that contract up to the acquiring GM, but despite MacT raving about 89 the fact there don't appear to be contract talks to me is telling.

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#35 PeOiler
June 15 2013, 09:01PM
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Citizen David wrote:

I can't understand why you think Lazar will be a dud. Has all the tools. Worst case scenario he's a good third center. Best case he's a good second line center.

I like Lazar as well, but Marc Pouliot would like to speak with you about that worst case scenario..

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#36 John Chambers
June 15 2013, 09:03PM
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@RexLibris

Im with you - I'd rather trade next years 1st than the current. Let another team gamble on where we'll finish while providing the motivation to rocket up the standings.

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#38 RexLibris
June 15 2013, 09:05PM
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And when Salma Hayek dances on a table, this clip comes to mind: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C3viQHsBFc4

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#40 Harold
June 15 2013, 09:07PM
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Jagr or Kane

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#41 RexLibris
June 15 2013, 09:08PM
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John Chambers wrote:

Im with you - I'd rather trade next years 1st than the current. Let another team gamble on where we'll finish while providing the motivation to rocket up the standings.

Emphasis on "rather". Personally, I don't trade 1st round picks on players intended to get a team into the playoffs. Once I've got a team that is headed there, then I make that trade one every three years at most to find the player that addresses both team need and roster depth. That being said, look at two teams who dealt away 1st round picks this year in St. Louis and Pittsburgh. What did either of those players get them this post-season?

No, keeping those 1st round picks is what keeps a team functioning at a decent level once they have a viable core established. Detroit rarely deals their 1st rounders anymore for precisely that reason.

I just bring it up because I think MacTavish is far less risk-averse than I.

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#42 DSF
June 15 2013, 09:11PM
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Artem Ansimov

Brandon Dubinsky

Mark Letestu

Ryan Johansen

Boone Jenner

Do you think the Jackets are so desperate for a centre they'll give up a top pairing D to get one?

I would think Gagner is #4 on that depth chart and Boone Jenner may well take his lunch money.

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#43 RexLibris
June 15 2013, 09:12PM
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@Lowetide

If we take away the Columbus trade idea for a moment and stick with the Gagner-at-the-draft concept, does this become part of a package deal intended to move up?

Trying to be a GM in the professional world would be like playing six different chess games simultaneously. Keeping track of which pawns have moved where and what gambits are being deployed against whom must be exhausting.

Speaking of which, word is out that Shanahan may become new Flames President of Hockey Ops. I'd rather they just promoted Feaster and set up a big-top to replace the Saddledome, that would be quality entertainment.

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#44 RexLibris
June 15 2013, 09:14PM
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Harold wrote:

Jagr or Kane

If I'm running the Oilers? Jagr. I wouldn't be at all surprised to hear that the Oilers make a strong pitch to him this off-season. He's the veteran presence this team needs.

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#46 John Chambers
June 15 2013, 09:16PM
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@RexLibris

Yeah there are basically two occasions to trade one's first rounder:

1) at the deadline, when a team wants to add a star like Iginla, Pominville, JBo, or Paul Gaustad (???)

2) in the offseason a full 11 months from the draft like when the Caps traded Varlamov to the Avs, or when the Leafs got Kessel. Offer sheets like Penner's are a derivative of this category.

I'm a fan of the Oilers dealing the '14 pick because at this point it will still hold high value, and because I don't want to cheer for losses after the trade deadline - not for a good long while

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#47 John Chambers
June 15 2013, 09:18PM
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@DSF

Dubinsky's a winger. Go to bed.

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#48 aguy
June 15 2013, 09:20PM
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I really don't like the Wow trade either. Marincin is the name I was least happy about. Those are all mostly sideways moves. Better leave the wheeling and dealing up to the big man.

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#49 John Chambers
June 15 2013, 09:22PM
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Lowetide wrote:

My fear in trading up to Carolina is they'll want a D. If they ask for a prospect, fine. But I don't think they will.

Obviously we wouldn't deal Klefbom to move up two spots, but you think Carolina would make the swap if the reward was Musil or Gernat?

I would deal Marincin, only if Barkov was still there at 5.

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#50 TigerUnderGlass
June 15 2013, 09:27PM
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@RexLibris

Detroit rarely deals their 1st rounders anymore for precisely that reason.

Is this the same Detroit teams that hasn't had a first round pick since 2010, has only had 2 first rounders in the last 5 years, and has only drafted in the first round in 5 of the past 15 drafts?

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