FAST FORWARD

Lowetide
June 19 2013 09:49PM

The 2013 draft just got very interesting, as the consensus #1 (Seth Jones) is apparently #4 on the Colorado Avalanche draft list. Is the race that close this year? Math suggests there is a clear option for #1 overall, and the name at the top may surprise.

For several years now the gold standard for projecting junior, college, Euro and minor league stats into the NHL is Desjardins NHLE.

FORWARDS NHLE (per 82gp)

  1. Jonathan Drouin, Halifax (QMJHL)  19-30-49
  2. Sasha Barkov, Tappere Tampere (SM-Liiga) 18-22-40
  3. Elias Lindholm, Brynas (SEL) 15-25-40
  4. Nathan MacKinnon, Halifax (QMJHL) 17-22-39
  5. Max Domi, London (OHL) 15-18-33
  6. Hunter Shinkaruk, Medicine Hat (WHL) 14-19-33
  7. Sean Monahan, Ottawa (OHL) 13-20-33
  8. Anthony Mantha, Val d’or (QMJHL) 17-13-30
  9. Valeri Nichushkin, Chelyabinsk Traktor (KHL) 20-10-30
  10. Adam Erne, Quebec (QMJHL) 9-15-24

DEFENSE NHLE (per 82gp)

  1. Seth Jones, Portland (WHL) 6-17-23
  2. Darnell Nurse, Sault Ste Marie (OHL) 4-11-15
  3. Rasmus Ristolainen, TPS Turku (SM-Liiga) 3-10-13

Jonathan Drouin--most often mentioned as the third in the CHL trio of elite talents in this draft--is in fact the top offensive player available this year. The next three forwards--Barkov, Lindholm and MacKinnon--are all quality offensive players and of course MacKinnon's scouting report (and Barkov's) boast a wider range of skills.

Jones offense from the blue isn't earth shattering (Drew Doughty was 82, 6-23-29 NHLE) but he's right in the same range offensively as guys like Alex Pietrangelo, Zack Bogosian and Michael Del Zotto. Jones has a wide range of skills, so delivering that kind of offense along with all of the other elements makes him an impact prospect.

THE NEW MATH

The other reason Colorado may be going the forward route is history: defensemen taken high in the draft often fail to deliver value, and very often come into their own with their second organization (or later). Even a guy like Chris Pronger--a pure Hall of Famer--did much of his damage after being traded the first time.

WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN?

The ugly truth is this: nothing has changed since Jason Gregor talked about defensemen and taking them high in the draft one year ago. No one would trade Nail Yakupov for Ryan Murray today, and the gap is extremely likely to widen moving forward.

It's easier to project forwards into the future, and Colorado is probably making the correct choice in going forward.

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Lowetide has been one of the Oilogosphere's shining lights for over a century. You can check him out here at OilersNation and at lowetide.ca. He is also the host of Lowdown with Lowetide weekday mornings 10-noon on Team 1260.
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#51 Taylor Gang
June 20 2013, 09:07AM
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I couldn't see Jones dropping out of the top 3. He is too good to drop that far. At least with Adam Larrson he was rated #2. Jones is rated #1!

I used to be part of the group that says we should trade the pick for proven talent. I now think we should go for Carolina's pick. #7, Anaheim's second (#56 or something like that), and Fedun?

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#52 Benny Botts
June 20 2013, 09:07AM
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STEVE wrote:

THIS JUST IN:

Apparently MacTavish had supper with Dean Lombardi earlier this evening in Boston after the GM meetings today.

The subject if the dinner was based around Jonathan Bernier!

Rumor has it Mr. Lombardi wants Sammy Gags and 7th Overall. MacT thinks its too much for Bernier. Who knows where this could go?

Who reported this?

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#53 Tyler
June 20 2013, 09:11AM
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I'm still shocked by all the gagner haters and how they undervalue the guy. He does have defensive warts, however, not many 23 year olds have put up the pts that he has. I think no question, straight across, you'd have a handful of teams that would trade you a top 4-8 pick for him in a heart beat. If you can go Gernat or Musil, plus 7th, plus our 2nd rd (58 or whatever the later picks is) or Shultz Sr., for 4th/5th to grab Barkov then do it. He would look great on the LW/C and he can take over responsibility as he matures.

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#54 book¡e
June 20 2013, 09:18AM
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Wow -

Craig MacTavish and Lou Lamoriello were seen side by side at the Urinals of a Denny's Restaraunt. I think we can pretty much conclude that Gagner for Travis Zajac and a 2nd round pick is pretty much a sure thing.

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#55 Tyler
June 20 2013, 09:18AM
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Draft order will go:

Mack to COL, Drouin to FL, Nich TB, Jones to NSH, Barkov to OIL, Mon to CGY, Carolina gets Dman

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#56 Ducey
June 20 2013, 09:20AM
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Dangilitis wrote:

Bernier has played 62 NHL games. 62. Most games in a season played for him is 25 (which Dubnyk has surpassed 3 times). Bernier career SPG .912, with up and down years and better D in front of him. Dubnyk 139 games and .913 SPG with consistently improved SPG year after year. So you want to bring in a less proven goalie to replace an "unproven goalie"? Bernier's value is only because of the shallow free agent pool this year, but a clever GM realizes this and doesn't spend the farm on him (apparently there are 5 interested teams so one will likely do so). As for the suggestion of an offer sheet, this is a much safer option. Or do it the nice way and just offer a 2nd round draft pick for the guy conditional on signing him. Any team beats this offer, let them have Bernier.

No way anyone in their right mind spends a 1st round pick on Bernier, much less a #7 overall pick and then throws in one of the top D prospects in Gernat.

I am not against trading Gagner but I can think of a thousand better trades involving him that can solve bigger gaps in the roster - like the lack of a top pairing D man. a #2C/W is more important to a team than a #2 goalie. Just ask NYR.

I don't know how the Oilers solve the lack of goalie depth but the only Free Agent who can legitimately challenge Dubnyk for starter is Khudobin. Bernier would be a good #2 with a shot at #1, but Dubnyk would still be favoured in that match-up based on previous experience. Maybe its safer to wait until trade deadline or next year than do something stupid.

Well put. You forgot to add in the fact that Bernier has put up his #'s behind a Stanley Cup Champion defense, while DD has been left to fend for himself many nights.

There is no need for MacT to rush on the goalie front. Someone (Philly among them) will trade for Luongo and Bernier. If MacT is smart he will just wait and scoop up the extra goalies that shake free when that happens.

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#57 Ducey
June 20 2013, 09:21AM
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Benny Botts wrote:

Who reported this?

STEVE.

The spawn of Eklund.

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#58 Reg Dunlop
June 20 2013, 09:26AM
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If the oil buy out Horc(come on, you know he is untradeable) and pass on resigning Blancmanger then we enter next season with 1 sort-of-an-NHL-center assuming RNH takes a few months to fully recover. We are out of the playoff race and it's June. Because our savior MacT knows the folly of this, I see next years line-up looking like...

Hall RNH Ebs

Yak Gags MPS

Smyth Horc Hemsky

Brown Smithson Jones

and on D...

Petry Smid

SchultzX2

Potter Fistric

At least with Bucky being retained we can keep some continuity. Steve Smith getting canned? There's your bold move.

Who is slated to go 1st overall next year?

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#59 Tyler
June 20 2013, 09:32AM
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Reg Dunlop wrote:

If the oil buy out Horc(come on, you know he is untradeable) and pass on resigning Blancmanger then we enter next season with 1 sort-of-an-NHL-center assuming RNH takes a few months to fully recover. We are out of the playoff race and it's June. Because our savior MacT knows the folly of this, I see next years line-up looking like...

Hall RNH Ebs

Yak Gags MPS

Smyth Horc Hemsky

Brown Smithson Jones

and on D...

Petry Smid

SchultzX2

Potter Fistric

At least with Bucky being retained we can keep some continuity. Steve Smith getting canned? There's your bold move.

Who is slated to go 1st overall next year?

MAC said he would make a bold move. Going with the same terrible roster as last year and expecting to win, and not have riots, would be pretty bold.

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#60 washed up
June 20 2013, 09:35AM
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I just don't understand why MacT seems to have some kind of hate on for dubnyk? I think he's a decent netminder and that his game will only improve with an improved oilers team, especially on the back end. If he was on another team the oilers would probaly be trying to make a trade to aqquire him.

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#61 SrCain
June 20 2013, 09:44AM
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Reg Dunlop wrote:

If the oil buy out Horc(come on, you know he is untradeable) and pass on resigning Blancmanger then we enter next season with 1 sort-of-an-NHL-center assuming RNH takes a few months to fully recover. We are out of the playoff race and it's June. Because our savior MacT knows the folly of this, I see next years line-up looking like...

Hall RNH Ebs

Yak Gags MPS

Smyth Horc Hemsky

Brown Smithson Jones

and on D...

Petry Smid

SchultzX2

Potter Fistric

At least with Bucky being retained we can keep some continuity. Steve Smith getting canned? There's your bold move.

Who is slated to go 1st overall next year?

Umm is that not pretty last yrs exact lineup? So your saying MacT will do nothing to the roster this summer? None of us know exactly what roster changes MacT will make, but I'm pretty sure he isn't going to do nothing.

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#62 Mikey
June 20 2013, 09:56AM
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Reg Dunlop wrote:

If the oil buy out Horc(come on, you know he is untradeable) and pass on resigning Blancmanger then we enter next season with 1 sort-of-an-NHL-center assuming RNH takes a few months to fully recover. We are out of the playoff race and it's June. Because our savior MacT knows the folly of this, I see next years line-up looking like...

Hall RNH Ebs

Yak Gags MPS

Smyth Horc Hemsky

Brown Smithson Jones

and on D...

Petry Smid

SchultzX2

Potter Fistric

At least with Bucky being retained we can keep some continuity. Steve Smith getting canned? There's your bold move.

Who is slated to go 1st overall next year?

You're silly.

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#63 Mikey
June 20 2013, 09:57AM
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washed up wrote:

I just don't understand why MacT seems to have some kind of hate on for dubnyk? I think he's a decent netminder and that his game will only improve with an improved oilers team, especially on the back end. If he was on another team the oilers would probaly be trying to make a trade to aqquire him.

When did he say that or imply that?

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#64 Spaceman Spiff
June 20 2013, 10:08AM
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I think the Avs are bluffing in order to entice a flip-flop deal with one of the teams picking 3-5 (or lower).

Jones looked like a Larry Robinson clone when I saw him play at the World Juniors. If the Avs don't take him, it basically means Pat Roy probably has too much influence on the drafting department and/or has completely forgotten how important Rob Blake was on the Avs (or how important Robinson and Chelios were for the Habs).

And while it's interesting that a lot of defencemen picked high in the draft the last 10 or 15 years or whatever have either been traded or a disappointment, I think that's a "cyclical anomaly" more than anything else. Just because Eric Johnson couldn't pan out in St. Louis five years ago doesn't mean Colorado shouldn't take Seth Jones first overall this year.

Put it this way: If the Oilers were picking first this year, they had better damn well pick Jones (regardless of the fact they're already loaded up on forwards).

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#65 Will
June 20 2013, 10:08AM
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I am surprised most of the fan talk has been about largely keeping the same roster. Years of Tmbi has corrupted this fan base into thinking you can't change a hockey team.

We did not do that good last year. We landed at the bottom end of most projections. And the three years before that were terrible. So now we have a GM that has a bunch of forward talent he got from the draft, and aspirations to completely change the look and the feel of the team.

I say get er done. Go and change the 6 - 8 players. Sell the 7th pick for something cause we're not likely to get Barkov or Monahan anyway, not that either of those players would be stepping in to make an impact next year.

I hope Mac T goes ca raaazy and shakes it up.

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#66 GVBlackhawk
June 20 2013, 10:27AM
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Kevin 64 wrote:

Check out cap geek theres 15m with just sam gagner and MPS as RFA trade away Nick Hemsky and Horcoff in packages and deals and buyout belanger. you got about 30m in space. No way oilers have cap problems. Horton-Nuge-Ebs Hall-Sam-Yak MPS-Barkov-Bickell Brown-Lapierre-Smyth Jeff petry-(top 4 D). Smid-J Schultz Belov-Fistric/Potter You can have that line up and be perfectly fine. or you can change it up a little bit maybe make a trade for JayBo and have a good scoring 4th line instead of 1 with 2 fighters on it.

I don't think that you are looking at the cap situation closely enough.

Redo your lineup in two years time when RNH, Yakupov, JSchultz, MPS, Petry, the top 4 defenseman, and Dubnyk are all getting paid more.

Now add an overpriced Horton and Bickell to that. How much cap space do you expect then...$20-30M?

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#67 Shifty203
June 20 2013, 10:30AM
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@Mikey

I don't know if it's silly. As much as we'd like to believe MacT can pull some "Bold" moves, it can only happen if he has a dance partner. Its entirley possible we start the season with alot of the same line-up. Can't really let Horcoff go, if all we have is Gag's, and RNH who might return anywhere between the season opener and Christmas.

Fudge all for UFA's, and trades are a billion times easier to dream up, than to execute.

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#68 Wigswag
June 20 2013, 11:10AM
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MacT has already added Belov who has proven he is a world class defender and could be a top 4 (I'll take top 6). It's a start and the Oil have too many NHL assets available for someone not to want one of them.

Looking forward to interesting debates and opinons once the moves start happening.

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#69 Wigswag
June 20 2013, 11:14AM
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As for this article, Colorado selects from the Portland Winter Hawks ...

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#70 TV6
June 20 2013, 11:41AM
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@SuntanOil

1st off...

Josh HAS to be playing a serious ruse with us all with his trade idea's, because there is not 1 rational person on earth that would do ANY of his proposed deals. Either that, or his has never even seen an NHL game before...

As for SuntanOil's comment regarding Bozak...

"Before you sign him though, go back and watch the last ten minutes of game 7 against Boston. Take a look at the fear and resignation in his eyes. Then ask yourself how much you are willing to pay for that."

How in fact did you look into Bozak's eyes..? Were you sitting beside him in popcorn alley..? Because he did NOT even play in Game 7 of the Buds & Bears series.

People won't believe it/me, & I predicate this with saying there is NO way in Hades that you give up the 7th over-all pick for him, but Bernier is a better Tender than D.D. is or will be. They BOTH are good Tenders, but J.B. will have a better career than D.D. will moving forward. Would LUV to have them BOTH though, but Lombo wants a 1st rounder for him, & unless the Oil get a late round 1 version of 1, he's not going to be an Oiler unless there is a pretty damn good prospect coming here to LA along with the Oil's or Fowl's 2nd rounder.

x6

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#71 Tikkanese
June 20 2013, 11:42AM
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Gone: Horcoff(trade or BO), Hemsky(trade), Petrell(UFA), Jones(UFA), Hordi(UFA), Belanger(farm or BO), Smithson(UFA), Eager(farm or BO)Fistric(UFA wants way to much $), Peckham(won't receive qualifying offer, UFA), Khabby(UFA)

In: 3C, 4C - trading Gagner especially with Nuge out to start the year is to much change at C, sorry Gagner haters. Hopefully via trade, I don't like the UFA list. Bottom 6 will comprise of Smyth, PRV and 4 new faces. One new LW for top 6 - either a trade or UFA, hopefully a banger with hands like a C Stewart. Backup G - UFA or trade. At least 2 new D, hopefully an established 1A, not a possible 1A and another top 4. Potter isn't great but is signed and ok for a #7.

Hall - Nuge - Eberle

New meaty LW - Gagner - Yakupov

PRV - New Center(would love Zibanajed here) - New RW

Smyth - New veteran C - Brown/new extra F

New 1A - J Schultz

Smid - New Top 4

N Schultz - Petry

#7 Potter/Belov(hopefully he is as good as reported and is our new top 4 guy)

Dubnyk new backup - Khudobin, Greiss, Emery or trade

Lander, Klefbom and Marincin all need more time in AHL. With Nuge out to start I wouldn't be surprised to see Lander up as temporary 4C.

I'm sure Smyth has a decent year. He'll be back on the wing where he belongs and hopefully not stuck in the "Belanger Triangle" either. He won't see much 5x5. He will be a PK specialist, with a little 2nd unit PP time and be a great teammate. You can't expect more out of a 4LW.

That's 9 new faces, that is a lot of change but a quite likely number of change that we are going to see.

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#72 SuntanOil
June 20 2013, 01:40PM
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@TV6

Woops. egg on my face lol. Good pick up. I even remembered thinking how the look on Grabovski's face reminded me of the one Bozak usually wore in tight games - I guess he was there in spirit! (I've obviously never been a fan of his)

Hey, nobody is saying that Bernier doesn't have the potential to be a great goalie. The facts are that he hasn't put up numbers to prove it yet, and at some point fairly soon we are going to have to accept that maybe that is all there really is from him. Add to it that Lombardi does not possess all the cards here: Bernier is no doubt looking at his situation behind Quick and knows that he is never going to be the starter in L.A. Thus, if Bernier really wants to be a top goalie in this league he is likely to reject the Kings qualifying offer and force them to deal him or take him to salary arbitration. The latter of these will put stress on the Kings already tenuous cap situation and allow Bernier to walk for nothing at the end of next year.

We agree that having BOTH Dubnyk and Bernier in Edmonton would be a good fit for the team, but since I think that Bernier needs to be the unquestioned starter to realize the potential that you more strongly believe is there, I don't think it would be the right fit for HIM here either. Therefore, if I am MacTavish, my interest in Bernier would definitely be there, but I doubt my offer would be as strong as some other team might be willing to contribute. Certainly not anything approaching a number 7 and a key prospect. I maybe have a little more faith than you in Dubnyk right now, so the most I would give up would be Anaheims second and maybe Roy?

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#73 Kevin64
June 20 2013, 03:04PM
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GVBlackhawk wrote:

I don't think that you are looking at the cap situation closely enough.

Redo your lineup in two years time when RNH, Yakupov, JSchultz, MPS, Petry, the top 4 defenseman, and Dubnyk are all getting paid more.

Now add an overpriced Horton and Bickell to that. How much cap space do you expect then...$20-30M?

2 years is a long time buddy so much can happen in 2 years + cap will most likly go up dont think 2 years from now unless you wanna finish last for 2 more years. Hall and ebs are making 6m RNH YAK would get what a 2.25M raise? Roman Josi signed for around 4m i think?same with Voynov .Justin is making 3.75m right now how much more of a raise would he get? petry maybe a 2M-2.5M raise same goes for MPS if he pans out. Dubby is already making 3.5M what do you wanna pay him 2 years from now? bobby lous contract? I'm not even sure if your being serious about what you say or if your just hating...

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#74 GVBlackhawk
June 20 2013, 05:15PM
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Kevin64 wrote:

2 years is a long time buddy so much can happen in 2 years + cap will most likly go up dont think 2 years from now unless you wanna finish last for 2 more years. Hall and ebs are making 6m RNH YAK would get what a 2.25M raise? Roman Josi signed for around 4m i think?same with Voynov .Justin is making 3.75m right now how much more of a raise would he get? petry maybe a 2M-2.5M raise same goes for MPS if he pans out. Dubby is already making 3.5M what do you wanna pay him 2 years from now? bobby lous contract? I'm not even sure if your being serious about what you say or if your just hating...

No I am not hating. You cannot look at your cap situation one year at a time -- you must be forward thinking.

You are not accounting for the existing entry level contracts. All of RNH, Yak, and Schultz are on ELC's, of which only half of their bonus money is eligible towards the cap. For all intents and purposes, they have cap hits of $2.4M. So that will be $3.6M + $3.6M + $1.6M = $8.8M increase for 3 players. If Dubnyk establishes himself as a clear number 1 goalie, then he will command $5M+. Alternatively, the Oilers trade for a number one goalie and they pay him $5M+. Either way, that is an extra $1.5-2.0M on the books.

A lot of people are assuming the cap will go up but no one knows for sure. Also, how much will it increase? You have to be prepared for the worst case scenario...a minimal cap raise.

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#75 Kevin 64
June 20 2013, 06:29PM
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GVBlackhawk wrote:

No I am not hating. You cannot look at your cap situation one year at a time -- you must be forward thinking.

You are not accounting for the existing entry level contracts. All of RNH, Yak, and Schultz are on ELC's, of which only half of their bonus money is eligible towards the cap. For all intents and purposes, they have cap hits of $2.4M. So that will be $3.6M + $3.6M + $1.6M = $8.8M increase for 3 players. If Dubnyk establishes himself as a clear number 1 goalie, then he will command $5M+. Alternatively, the Oilers trade for a number one goalie and they pay him $5M+. Either way, that is an extra $1.5-2.0M on the books.

A lot of people are assuming the cap will go up but no one knows for sure. Also, how much will it increase? You have to be prepared for the worst case scenario...a minimal cap raise.

We can cross that bridge when we get to it. you can make trade adjusts and stuff if we get into trouble a year or 2 from now with the cap for now we should focus on having a good season i honestly dont think we would have a problem with cap though just a gut feeling i guess.with the development of our young stars we will be a better team then we were a year ago no matter what because of our players that are growing with a few free agent signings+trades i think playoffs are reachable this upcoming season

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#76 GVBlackhawk
June 20 2013, 07:06PM
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Kevin 64 wrote:

We can cross that bridge when we get to it. you can make trade adjusts and stuff if we get into trouble a year or 2 from now with the cap for now we should focus on having a good season i honestly dont think we would have a problem with cap though just a gut feeling i guess.with the development of our young stars we will be a better team then we were a year ago no matter what because of our players that are growing with a few free agent signings+trades i think playoffs are reachable this upcoming season

Like yourself, I want to see a noticeable improvement in the team next season. However, I am not a fan of overpaying for UFA's at this stage, which you would have to do to acquire Bickell or Horton. MacT should be able to improve the team with a few shrewd trades or offer sheets, thus keeping the team away from the cap ceiling. Also, getting Belov for $1.5M per season is a low risk, high reward gamble.

In another year or two when the team is firmly contending for the playoffs, and the salary cap has risen to a sufficient level, then it would be more prudent/understandable to bring in some select UFA's.

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#77 s2h
June 20 2013, 08:59PM
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Reg Dunlop wrote:

If the oil buy out Horc(come on, you know he is untradeable) and pass on resigning Blancmanger then we enter next season with 1 sort-of-an-NHL-center assuming RNH takes a few months to fully recover. We are out of the playoff race and it's June. Because our savior MacT knows the folly of this, I see next years line-up looking like...

Hall RNH Ebs

Yak Gags MPS

Smyth Horc Hemsky

Brown Smithson Jones

and on D...

Petry Smid

SchultzX2

Potter Fistric

At least with Bucky being retained we can keep some continuity. Steve Smith getting canned? There's your bold move.

Who is slated to go 1st overall next year?

Hey! That look's just like last years roster... oh no... :(

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#78 Benhur
June 20 2013, 09:26PM
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Drouins shooting % was 25% this year!!! Its way above his average and unsustainable! I wouldn't count on his NHLE to make him a #1. Also you have to look at the complete skill sert for players including defense and physical size to properly rate him. Drouin is good but not as good as the NHLE shows.

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#79 Next up, is Connor McJesus.
June 20 2013, 10:10PM
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If Barkov goes earlier than anticipated, have to wonder if it'll loosen Poiles grasp on that 4th selection.

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#80 Rusty Patenaude
June 20 2013, 10:51PM
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If Barkov goes earlier, it will just mean one of the other three guys is available and they are all likely to be franchise players...so I doubt it would encourage Poile to move the pick.

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#81 Time Travelling Sean
June 21 2013, 04:35AM
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I'll miss you Petrell. You'll be in my bottom-six on NHL 14 I guess. :c

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