MOCK!

Lowetide
June 24 2013 01:20PM

I don't do mock drafts, but with this year's edition of the draft full of more plot twists than a Whodunit, I thought it might be fun. Hope you enjoy it!

TOP 5

  • Colorado at #1: L Jonathan Drouin. Drouin's outstanding season is too difficult to ignore. Does more than anyone else to contribute to goals, the most difficult thing to do in the game. I think he is a special offensive player.
  • Florida at #2: C Nathan MacKinnon. Absolutely a plug and play, he should step in immediately and should be an early Calder favorite.Could certainly go number one overall. 
  • Tampa Bay at #3: D Seth Jones. Incredible that he could fall this far, and the Lightning would have to consider themselves extremely fortunate to land a franchise defenseman at this number. If the two Q players do go off the board as I've described, suspect the Lightning will receive a lot of offers for this selection.
  • Nashville at #4: C Sasha Barkov: This is the selection I'm most comfortable with in the top 5. Nashville needs a franchise C and Barkov is a plug and play.
  • Carolina at #5: L Valeri Nichushkin. The big Russian had an enormous impact on the draft at this year's NHL combine. I think he has a huge impact on the Oilers selection at #7.

FIVE THROUGH TEN

  • Calgary at #6: C Elias Lindholm. Lindholm has an impressive resume and could come to the NHL next season. Among the best offensive players available in this year's draft.
  • Edmonton at #7: C Sean Monahan. Outstanding 2-way center with enough offense to be considered a strong 2line C candidate when he arrives in the NHL. This is a 'perfect fit' for Edmonton.
  • Buffalo at #8: D Darnell Nurse: If Monahan isn't there, I expect the Oilers to take Nurse or deal down. Buffalo takes Nurse and he could come quickly to the NHL.
  • New Jersey at #9 D Rasmus Ristolainen:  A nice range of skills, could play sooner than later. NJD will like the fact that he has played in a league against men and flourished. 
  • Dallas at #10: C Curtis Lazar: Another perfect match for team and player. Lazar impresses with spirited play and attention to defensive detail, and is tough to play against. The offense helps too.

ELEVEN THROUGH TWENTY

  • Philadelphia at #11: C Fred Gauthier. Perfect Flyer selection. Don't worry, Oilers will have their chance to get him when Holmgren decides to trade good players again.
  • Phoenix at #12: C Hunter Shinkaruk: Phoenix takes the best pure offensive player remaining in the draft. They'll have to wait a couple of years (probably) but he should impact the offense on arrival.
  • Winnipeg at #13: C Bo Horvat. Winnipeg stays where they are and get an outstanding center who probably has enough offense to play on the second line when he arrives as an NHL player. Great value.
  • Columbus at #14: C Max Domi. Solid offense and a determined player, I do think his draft number suffered a little because of his Memorial Cup performance.
  • New York Islanders at #15: L Anthony Mantha. Scored 50 goals in the QMJHL this past season, and there is some talk he is NHL ready. The Islanders have to like the combination.
  • Buffalo at #16: C Alex Wennberg. Taking a defenseman in the top 10 allows the Sabres to reach a little for this lanky Swede who has a nice range of skills.
  • Ottawa at #17: L Kerby Rychel. A trending prospect, skilled and with a mean streak. Ottawa passes on some nice defensive options to take him, reaching a little.
  • Detroit at #18: D Ryan Pulock. A nice selection at this number, Pulock can do it all and has a plus shot. Best of all, the Red Wings will be very patient with him.
  • Columbus at #19: D Josh Morrissey. Fast, skilled and a player who impressed everyone with his season.
  • San Jose at #20: C Nicolas Petan. Small but very skilled. His offensive potential gets him here.

TWENTY-ONE THROUGH THIRTY

  • Toronto at #21: D Nikita Zadorov. Big Russian defender falls with the other blue in this draft, but represents solid value for the Leafs at this number.
  • Calgary Flames at #22: G Zachary Fucale. The Flames start the march of masked men in this draft by taking the highest ranked G on Craig Button's board.
  • Washington Capitals at #23: L Adam Erne. Skill winger has some toughness, should cover this bet.
  • Vancouver Canucks at #24: C JT Compher. Skill C is also an agitator.
  • Montreal at #25: C Laurent Daupin. Impressive skill, maybe a slight reach.
  • Anaheim at #26: L Artturi Lehkonen. Undersized skill winger with terrific potential.
  • Columbus at #27: D Mirco Mueller. Smart defender with plenty of skill.
  • Calgary at #28: D Madison Bowey. Terrific skater, good value at this number.
  • Dallas at #29: R Valentin Zykov. Physical skill player, he's the return for Jaromir Jagr. Quality NHL prosect.
  • Chicago at #30: C Ryan Hartman: Physical player, tough to play against.

As for the Oilers, I think they could pick 4th, 7th, 10th, 13th or trade out of the first round altogether. Completely unpredictable. What a week!

C2a6955161684b5e3189319acfa5ebe4
Lowetide has been one of the Oilogosphere's shining lights for over a century. You can check him out here at OilersNation and at lowetide.ca. He is also the host of Lowdown with Lowetide weekday mornings 10-noon on Team 1260.
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#1 Spydyr
June 24 2013, 01:27PM
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Look at moving up f!st

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#2 Mr common sense
June 24 2013, 01:28PM
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I agree with this top 5. Drouin is the next Giroux and Roy knows it. They are set at centre already.

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#3 Walter Sobchak
June 24 2013, 01:33PM
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Nice mock LT.

I'm close but no way I have Lazar ahead of Horvat or Shinkaruk.

The rest is solid though, call it personnel preference on the Lazar.

I would love to see the Oilers o two things at the draft, move up to 5 th.

Make a deal with NJD on there pick as well.

NJD have to see the writing on the wall, this is the one team that I think will be a lottery team next year, I'm not sure Lou wants to give away a lottery pick?

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#4 DrDave
June 24 2013, 01:38PM
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If Gagner gets dealt this week then MacT should do everything in his power to get Monahan!

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#5 GSP
June 24 2013, 01:41PM
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What do you think it would take for the Oilers to move up from 7th to 4th so they could get Barkov?

Would 7th and MPS do it?

Or if Jones is sitting there at 3, would 7th and Klefbom get you Jones?

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#6 WhattaMike
June 24 2013, 01:53PM
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Great mock draft LT, and I enjoyed reading your proposed selections. I very much liked that ya wrote Edmonton got Monahan as he is my first choice at #7 too...even ahead of Nichushkin. Great winger the russian kid is but...IMO, centre is a higher priority to the Oilers right now than a future unknown prospect...better to sign a top UFA or make a trade for the LW top 6 position right now.

LT....I am curious as to why you think Calgary may pick up goaltender Fucale wit their 22nd pick due to that they have Brossoit moving into their system?

LT...also why did ya put Lazar ahead of Horvat or Shinkaruk? I have been reading these two kids have stronger upsides than Lazar?

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#7 Ian
June 24 2013, 01:53PM
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Calgary is going to take Monahan over Lindholm, I would bet everything I have..... so very little but still.

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#8 Mr common sense
June 24 2013, 01:58PM
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Ian wrote:

Calgary is going to take Monahan over Lindholm, I would bet everything I have..... so very little but still.

Correct. I live in Calgary and this is all they talk about. They want Monahan, MacT knows this and tomorrow's presser is to bring people's expectations down.

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#9 Taylor Gang
June 24 2013, 02:08PM
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Mr common sense wrote:

Correct. I live in Calgary and this is all they talk about. They want Monahan, MacT knows this and tomorrow's presser is to bring people's expectations down.

Which doesn't make sense considering how they want a #1 centreman, while Monahan projects to be a #2

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#10 WhattaMike
June 24 2013, 02:10PM
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Then if Calgary wants Monahan that badly, the Oilers should definitely try to get him before Calgary does just to get the new Battle of Alberta started off on the right foot.

It's time that these two teams start a new war era with a real bad hate against each other. MacT knows this more than Feaster likely does and he should start the war off by getting Carolinas's 5th and then taking Monahan...lol.

Sather would do that in a heartbeat...even though he knew a better player might have been available at the time...lol

Oh Slats, if ya are listening...give MacT a call about this please!!!!

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#13 Mr common sense
June 24 2013, 02:14PM
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Taylor Gang wrote:

Which doesn't make sense considering how they want a #1 centreman, while Monahan projects to be a #2

Lindholm has better offensive upside than Monahan. Think Grabovski when you think Lindholm, great skater, relentless, attacking fwd. Think Lapierre when you think Monahan, sandpaper kind of guy, little offense, two-way, safe, boring player

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#14 tapdog
June 24 2013, 02:18PM
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Walter Sobchak wrote:

Nice mock LT.

I'm close but no way I have Lazar ahead of Horvat or Shinkaruk.

The rest is solid though, call it personnel preference on the Lazar.

I would love to see the Oilers o two things at the draft, move up to 5 th.

Make a deal with NJD on there pick as well.

NJD have to see the writing on the wall, this is the one team that I think will be a lottery team next year, I'm not sure Lou wants to give away a lottery pick?

Something about NJ is that they still owe that 1st round pick to the league for the Kovalchuk fiasco. So if they at a bottomfeeder next year as you say, they best dump this year or it could get a little embarrassing. Correct me if I am wrong but I am pretty sure this is correct.

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#15 Ducey
June 24 2013, 02:21PM
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LT,

I have posed this question before but never got an answer or (more likely) never checked back for it.

What assurance do we have that Monahan is not MAP v.2? It sounds like Monahan was playing big minutes (sometime 30 a game) and likely all key situations. Aren't his offensive numbers going to come down once he starts having to share PP and 1st line minutes?

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#16 Taylor Gang
June 24 2013, 02:21PM
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Mr common sense wrote:

Lindholm has better offensive upside than Monahan. Think Grabovski when you think Lindholm, great skater, relentless, attacking fwd. Think Lapierre when you think Monahan, sandpaper kind of guy, little offense, two-way, safe, boring player

Exactly so why would they pick Monahan over Lindholm

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#17 Truth
June 24 2013, 02:24PM
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Mr common sense wrote:

Lindholm has better offensive upside than Monahan. Think Grabovski when you think Lindholm, great skater, relentless, attacking fwd. Think Lapierre when you think Monahan, sandpaper kind of guy, little offense, two-way, safe, boring player

I would argue that you are on the incredibly safe side. On the opposite side of the spectrum I think it would be Monahan = Eric Staal, Lindholm = Zetterberg.

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#19 Me common sense
June 24 2013, 02:25PM
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Taylor Gang wrote:

Exactly so why would they pick Monahan over Lindholm

They view Backlund as long term #1C. Monahan as #2. He is also physically stronger than Lindholm. Once Shanny shows up on the scene they are confident he'll entice ufa's. as much as I hate to say it, don't count out the flamers, they are is spasm mode to rebuild

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#20 Will
June 24 2013, 02:30PM
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I like that we were better than last place this year, but I miss the assurance of picking first overall. Unlike year's past, there is no number one consensus and Colorado will not be looked upon in a bad light for taking any one of three different players. I just wish we had number 6. Then no matter what we would be getting Either Monahan or Nichushkin. At seven, there is a high likely hood we get neither.

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#21 Mr common sense
June 24 2013, 02:31PM
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Truth wrote:

I would argue that you are on the incredibly safe side. On the opposite side of the spectrum I think it would be Monahan = Eric Staal, Lindholm = Zetterberg.

Haha please don't make me laugh. These 2 are not stars, don't let the media hype confuse you. Drouin is the long term gem of this pool, he's unreal

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#22 Truth
June 24 2013, 02:34PM
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Ducey wrote:

LT,

I have posed this question before but never got an answer or (more likely) never checked back for it.

What assurance do we have that Monahan is not MAP v.2? It sounds like Monahan was playing big minutes (sometime 30 a game) and likely all key situations. Aren't his offensive numbers going to come down once he starts having to share PP and 1st line minutes?

I've always wondered about that. What is better, a prospect that is by far the best on the team and gets major minutes, plays 1st line PP and PK , or the prospect on a great team that maybe gets more points than they should but not heavy minutes?

MAP played with Crosby, correct? Or was it the year after he was drafted. I know Gagner played with Kane, Yakupov with Galchenyuk, Hall was on a loaded Windsor team for 2 years.

Has there been any research into this?

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#23 Supernova
June 24 2013, 02:51PM
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Walter Sobchak wrote:

Nice mock LT.

I'm close but no way I have Lazar ahead of Horvat or Shinkaruk.

The rest is solid though, call it personnel preference on the Lazar.

I would love to see the Oilers o two things at the draft, move up to 5 th.

Make a deal with NJD on there pick as well.

NJD have to see the writing on the wall, this is the one team that I think will be a lottery team next year, I'm not sure Lou wants to give away a lottery pick?

Wes,

I have Horvat, Lazar, then Shinaruk.

I think you and I have traded posts in the past about these 3, and are pretty much in agreement on how we view them.

After having seen Shinaruk play live about 60 times, I am very confident he needs to play with high skill players.

I see NJ taking a chance on Shinkaruk.

I can see buffalo and Dallas in on either Horvat or Lazar.

Mocks are hard because you are trying to predict teams not overall players.

Shinaruk could be a star but he needs the right situation more than the other two.

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#24 Truth
June 24 2013, 02:52PM
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Mr common sense wrote:

Haha please don't make me laugh. These 2 are not stars, don't let the media hype confuse you. Drouin is the long term gem of this pool, he's unreal

In no way am I saying that is how those two players will project. I am saying you are projecting on the safe side.

You are saying that in the deepest draft since 2003, #6 and #7 overall are projected to turn into Grabovski and Lapierre. Staal and Zetterberg would be best case scenario's no doubt, but this is the upper echelon of an apparently excellent draft class. Somewhere in between should be realistic.

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#25 Ian
June 24 2013, 03:01PM
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@Lowetide

I know, but everything I have read coming out of Calgary seems to favour Monahan. I just have a feeling that's who they go with. Which is fine, cause Lindholm may end up making them look foolish for it.

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#27 Mr common sense
June 24 2013, 03:11PM
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Truth wrote:

In no way am I saying that is how those two players will project. I am saying you are projecting on the safe side.

You are saying that in the deepest draft since 2003, #6 and #7 overall are projected to turn into Grabovski and Lapierre. Staal and Zetterberg would be best case scenario's no doubt, but this is the upper echelon of an apparently excellent draft class. Somewhere in between should be realistic.

Sure I understand what you are saying but your top end projection is too high. Worst case, Monahan will be a Lapierre, best case, Jason Arnott. realistic projection is a Manny Malhotra/RJ Umberger hybrid.

lindholm worst case is Grabovski, best case a Tomas plekanac, realistic projection is a kris Kelly/Tyler bpzak hybrid.

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#28 They're $hittie
June 24 2013, 03:23PM
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@Mr common sense;

So why cant these two be stars? Because you are a head scout some where?

Jeff Skinner was ranked anywhere from 10-20. Zetterberg was taken in the late rounds. Jamie Benn was a fifth round pick. There is nothing saying these guys cant be stars. In fact with this being such a deep draft I think they have more going for them than a lot of other so called stars. Wasn't Mikael Granlund suppose to be a superstar already? Come on DSF give me a stat to show what he has done in the NHL.

As for Drouin, he will be good but I have seen way too many prospects come out of the Q with numbers like him and nothing other than a skilled offensive game and didn't make the cut. This is why Mackinnon will be better. He has more to his game, and will still provide more offense in the NHL than Drouin,

Unflappable Coach wrote: They view Backlund as long term #1C. Monahan as #2

HAHAHAHA, FatFeaster cant be that stupid. Monohan will be better suited as a rookie for a number one before backlund ever will. We in edmonton are arguing over a 23 year old center who was 9th in center scoring last year and whether or not he is a number 2 but Calgary thinks backlund is a number one? Dont believe that. Calgary is not taking Monohan because he projects as a number two behind backlund. They are taking him because they cant decide between the two and you might as well take the bigger center and screw over your rivals if that helps make the decision.

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#29 Jerod
June 24 2013, 03:26PM
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I'd be happy with Lindholm or Monahan at 7

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#30 Jerod
June 24 2013, 03:36PM
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It is possible that Nichushkin could go # 3. Meaning SJ could fall to 5th.

We wait.

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#31 Metal&Oil
June 24 2013, 03:41PM
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I'm in the minority here but I have Nurse ahead of Monahan on the Oilers draft list.-------------------------

NHL Central Scouting’s Chris Edwards: “He’s the kind of guy who is not going to make a lot of mistakes. He’s steady and solid, and you can trust him out there. Anytime you get a guy his size, who skates as well as he does and plays a physical game, it’s fun to watch.”---------------------

Corey Pronman: Nurse had a considerable amount of hype at the beginning of the season, and he has exceeded all expectations. He is a gifted physical player who has all the natural tools a scout could want from a defenseman. He has slowly begun to emerge as a two-way player, but his value comes from his high-end work in his own end. Nurse is a tall defender with an aggressive edge and the strength to consistently push his checks off pucks. He has above-average mobility, especially considering his larger size. With his wingspan, he is able to make a multitude of plays in the defensive end. I have heard previous concerns from scouts about his offensive upside, but he took a step forward in that element this season. He will not be a dynamic offensive threat, but he can move the puck at an above-average level, and join the rush on occasion. He projects as a point man on a second power play unit, while logging the tough defensive minutes. Nurse's next level of progression will have to come from his below-average shot.

Ranking explanation: From a value standpoint, I see Ryan Pulock as comparable to Nurse, but they are different kinds of players. Pulock has better offensive hockey sense, a drastically better shot, and better hands. Nurse is a better skater with more imposing physicality and overall defensive ability. Nurse gets the edge because I see him as a safer choice. Scouts are divided on Pulock's skating and defensive ability, whereas reports on Nurse are unanimously glowing. It is also dangerous to overrate a player who derives a bulk of his value from his shot, such as Pulock, as there is more uncertainty when translating that skill to the next level. -------------------------

The think that really intriges me is his wingspan. As we all saw in 2006 with Chris Pronger that can be a huge advantage. Sounds to me like Nurse fits the mold to a tee of what the Oiler's desperately need on the blueline, even if he is a few years away from NHL employment.

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#32 DigDeepNBleedBlue
June 24 2013, 03:48PM
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@Metal&Oil

I like Nurse too. Monahan or Nurse. Whoever falls.

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#33 FSD
June 24 2013, 03:54PM
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Prediction

NM 1-2 JD 1-4 SJ 1-5 AB 4 -5 VN 3-7 SM 5-7 EL 5-8 DN 5-8

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#34 CaptainLander
June 24 2013, 04:05PM
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No one the Oil pick up from the draft will play in the NHL next year, maybe not for a couple years. That would be the best scenario. Not to have to need have one of your top 6 forwards or top 2 d men be rookies. I would love to one day see a guy like Lindholm join the Oil at 21 or 22. Playing 2 more years in SEL and another in the AHL. Join and already strong top 9. Is that not the Detroit model other teams are striving for?

So with the scouting reports I have read between Monahan and Lindholm, I like the Swede.

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#35 Next up, is Connor McJesus.
June 24 2013, 04:45PM
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@Lowetide

Would Gagner along with the 7th, in exchange for the 4th (Barkov) be out of line LT?

Think I would do that if possible.

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#37 Oilcan
June 24 2013, 04:59PM
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Next up, is Connor McJesus. wrote:

Would Gagner along with the 7th, in exchange for the 4th (Barkov) be out of line LT?

Think I would do that if possible.

I think that is a massive overpayment and I am not even a huge Gagner supporter. I would rather see Gagner get traded for a top 4 dman who is already proven. The Oilers need a little different makeup but they need to start competing now, this trade sets them back. I would even be willing to trade Gagner for a Bogosion and #7 for Kulikov. Knocks everyone on the D down a peg and it becomes an area of strength I would think Schultz SR could get a reliable 3rd line player in return. I think the #2 Center on the Oilers might be enticing for some of the free agent centers out there.

I think defense was the biggest issue last year and improving that would bump up the goals per game number even without major changes at forward.

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#38 Lofty
June 24 2013, 05:11PM
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CaptainLander wrote:

No one the Oil pick up from the draft will play in the NHL next year, maybe not for a couple years. That would be the best scenario. Not to have to need have one of your top 6 forwards or top 2 d men be rookies. I would love to one day see a guy like Lindholm join the Oil at 21 or 22. Playing 2 more years in SEL and another in the AHL. Join and already strong top 9. Is that not the Detroit model other teams are striving for?

So with the scouting reports I have read between Monahan and Lindholm, I like the Swede.

Your right, the player that the Oil draft at #7 will probably be a year or two away from the show. That's exactly why the team can't afford to trade the pick.

The team has drafted in the top 7 what, 5 or 6 times in 30 years? As much as some people want to load up for a big playoff push, I would rather see the team build up a stable and become a consistent contender.

Top 10 picks and the entry level contracts that come with them are gold in a cap world.

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#39 FSD
June 24 2013, 05:28PM
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@Next up, is Connor McJesus.

Nashville would want more they would take Eberle.

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#40 FSD
June 24 2013, 05:34PM
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7th + Eberle for Barkov + ?

That would do it

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#41 Tyguycarguy
June 24 2013, 05:38PM
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After watching the feature on Nurse I don't care about need this kid is going to be great!!!

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#42 Jerod
June 24 2013, 05:40PM
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Tyguycarguy wrote:

After watching the feature on Nurse I don't care about need this kid is going to be great!!!

I would guess Oilers ranking of players

1. Barkov

2. Monahan

3. Nurse

4. Lindholm

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#43 madjam
June 24 2013, 05:45PM
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First off -Buffalo wants Ristolainen to go with Armia . Winn. wants Pulock leaving Zadorov for Philly .

Order : MacKinnon , Jones , Nicushkin, Drouin , Barkov , Lindholm goes to Flames , Buff from Edmonton -Ristolainen , Edm. from Buff. and 3rd round pick - Nurse , Monohan ,M.Domi, Zadorov , Shinkarouk , Pulock ,Lazar , A.Wennberg , Horvat , F.Gauthier , J.Morrisey ,K.Rychel , A.Erne , R. Hartman , N.Petan (Flames) , Compher , Zykov , A.Mantha , Fucale , A.Lehtonen , Bowey (Flames) , A.Slepychev, Bjorkstrand ,

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#44 PutzStew
June 24 2013, 05:47PM
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Lowetide wrote:

Lindholm projects as a center and a better offensive center.

If he's so good why doesn't Edmonton want him????

I can't see Calgary leaving Monahan there. Now if someone grabs a Dman then Edmonton has a chance but Monahan will be taken before Linholm.

Your would be what is known as dreaming Lowtide.

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#45 TayLordBalls
June 24 2013, 05:48PM
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Barkov shoots left - he is of no use to the oilers.

besides, that pick is going to another team in trade.

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#47 Next up, is Connor McJesus.
June 24 2013, 05:55PM
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@Oilcan

thanks guys.

There's some grey area in what we all agree is a top 6 forward, and a top 4 defender. Is Gagner a legitimate 2nd line center with the few deficiencies in his game? Not so sure.

As it sits today, we're not sure if Hopkins is going to be that 2nd line center d specialist. I'm more comfortable with a 1A and 1B centerman rather than a definite in both cases. Barkov could be that 1A or 1B.

What about Gagner and Hemsky, in return for that 4th selection? Barkov at 4, and Nurse at 7.

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#48 Next up, is Connor McJesus.
June 24 2013, 06:01PM
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@FSD

If MacKinnon was in play i'd consider offering Eberle.

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#49 FSD
June 24 2013, 06:09PM
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Perhaps Sam Gagner + 37th pick + 7th pick for Barkov

Nashville has no second rd pick.

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#50 Taylor Gang
June 24 2013, 06:12PM
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I don't think it will cost that much to move up the two spots required to get Barkov. I fully expect Nichushkin to be drafted at #3, bumping Drouin down to #4 and Barkov to #5. If Nichushkin doesn't get taken, then Nichushkin would be cool to have too. Perhaps the #7 and Nick Schultz could do it

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