OILERS DRAFT MOMENTS, VOLUME 2

Lowetide
June 26 2013 05:39PM

The Edmonton Oilers have supplied us with endless stories at the draft table--some diamonds, some stone. The annual teenage crapshoot has blessed the copper and blue and beaten the Oildrop about the face and hands a few times too. For fans, sometimes the indications are clear early on. 

MARC ANTOINE POULIOT

Pouliot's story was injury. The young Q center had been rocked at the top prospects game and then suffered a long string of injuries on his way to being one of the poorest payoffs in the 2003 first round. He then hurt his hip that summer at the 2003 summer WJ hockey camp in Calgary, and suffered an adbominal injury in November of 2003. It was revealed in the spring of 2004 he's also suffered a broken wrist during the 2003-04 season. 

After that, the injuries got more creative, reaching their zenith with the Pat Quinn "pubis thing' media conference. Pouliot managed to play 192 NHL games before heading to Europe. 

JORDAN EBERLE

Ranked 29th on Bob Mckenzie's consensus list, Eberle was taken 22nd overall in the 2008 entry draft. He is one of the best draft selections in team history, ranking second in goals from 2008 draftees. Eberle is incredibly popular with the Oiler fanbase, partly because of his tremendous development as an offensive player during his junior career and his stunning international performances at the World Junior Championships. 

Jordan Eberle is as attached to the city of Edmonton as any Oiler since 1979. Massively popular, he's a major part of the young cluster Oiler fans believe will someday bring Stanley back to Edmonton. 

JESSE NIINIMAKI

The Jesse Niinimaki selection is one I'll remember forever, mostly because there was very little information. I had my Hockey News on the coffee table, my resource material printed off and I was ready in 2002, until the Oilers announced Niinimaki. While I was shuffling and searching to find Niinimaki (Mr. Google was also in a panic) the tsn panel--the absolute experts--were also scrambling. They did manage to find words like "center" and "Finnish". Once I found something on him, it was not encouraging.

That was the day I began to value the phrase 'risk averse' and am hopeful we'll see more this weekend from the Oilers. 

WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN?

The draft is a crap shoot. Staying away from walkabout picks helps, but drafting in the top 5 is the absolute best way to grab outstanding talent. Can the Oilers trade into the top 5 this weekend?

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Lowetide has been one of the Oilogosphere's shining lights for over a century. You can check him out here at OilersNation and at lowetide.ca. He is also the host of Lowdown with Lowetide weekday mornings 10-noon on TSN 1260.
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#51 Supernova
June 26 2013, 11:27PM
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EHH Team wrote:

If they take Horvat, it had better be after trading down. He is a ridiculous pick at #7

Horvat is not far fetched at 7. Buffalo and Dallas are behind the oilers both have admitted they want a Center, if they fail to move up, Horvat will likely be gone.

Like it or not that is a way the draft works, teams are always trying to gauge what the teams before them or after them are doing.

If we did trade down to say 13. Horvat would likely be gone, if he is their guy than he is their guy. Doesn't really matter if he is the 15th best player if 3 teams are willing to spend a top 10 on him. That means he is top 10.

Believe me I would love it if they could trade back and add a pick and still get him but don't think that is possible.

Some teams have probably fallen in love with both Horvat and Lazar because they are almost sure fire many hundred of game NHLers. You might not win the draft but you certainly keep your job.

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#52 chuck biscuits
June 26 2013, 11:31PM
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http://www.nhl.com/ice/blogpost.htm?id=16934

Lou told reporters in April they would be keeping the pick this year.

There was some twittering last night that the Devils may appeal the (remaining)fine levied in 2010(the 1st round pick)

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#53 G Money
June 26 2013, 11:36PM
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DSF wrote:

You have to remember that part of Perron and JVR catching up to Gagner involves playoff games.

While Gagner got the early push, Perron and JVR are on playoff calibre teams.

JVR lead the Leafs in playoff scoring at 1.00 PPG. The kid is breaking out.

Perron, with the addition of some high end forwards like Ty Rattie and a full season of Tarasenko should benefit from a higher scoring STL team.

Ah, the DSF speciality - cherry picked stats and small sample sizes.

JVR's 1.00PPG in a staggering 7 games is no more valid a sign of him 'breaking out' then Gagner and his 8-point game (which for the mathematically challenged is an 8.0 PPG rate over only a slightly smaller sample size).

For the record, the PPG for this last season:

JVR - 0.67 Perron - 0.52 Gagner - 0.79

It is possible, though not probable that JVR will make the necessary 18% improvement in his PPG rate in order to match Gagner. Both are old enough that they are nearing the top of their development curve, but both young enough that their actually fully developed games won't show for another year or two.

Unlikely that at this point Perron is going to make the 52% improvement in his PPG rate needed to match Ganye, no matter who he plays with.

I also expect Gagner - who will have a second year man in Yakupov on one side and hopefully a good possession winger on the other side - to improve next year, though as with JVR and Perron, those improvements should be measured in single digit percentages.

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#54 Digger
June 27 2013, 01:23AM
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@DSF

I didn't forget about playoff games, I just didn't consider it relevant to the discussion since you didn't include those games in your PPG rates from your original post.

As for JVR breaking out, you could be right, but it could also be just as much a mirage as his 2010/11 playoff run where he scored 7 goals in 11 games, only to have a mediocre 11/12 season followed by a poor playoffs. IMO taking playoff scoring rates and using it as a predictor for future career success is rife with fool's gold. Fernando Pisani should've taught us that much.

Perron could see improved scoring rates with Rattie, though I wouldn't be counting on him quite yet...let's see how he handles playing against men vs. kids 2-3 years younger than himself before counting on him to boost anyone's scoring rates.

As for Tarasenko, a full season from him will certainly help Perron...but I'm thinking a full season from Yakupov will help out Gagner every bit as much, if not more so. And if the Oilers draft Nichushkin, who knows what'll happen.

All in all, I think we'll just have to agree to disagree, and we'll see how things play out. If you end up being right, I'll certainly commend you for it.

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#55 Quicksilver ballet
June 27 2013, 03:47AM
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Even with Briere and Bryzgalov off the books, Holmgren still looks like he has work to do.

Be more than happy to take Talbot and Hartnell off their hands for Nick Schultz and a second rounder.

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#56 madjam
June 27 2013, 07:08AM
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The 2007 draft was maybe our worse draft season if it were not for Gagner . Time to fix that now and get at least 2 we should have drafted . Plante and Riley picks were same type of reaching as Jankowski was for Flames last year . Gagner that draft year had accumulated in his junior career Games 414 , G-91-A-167 ,Pts.258 -P.I.M.surprisingly 203 second only to D.Perron .

D.Perron , the one I thought for sure we would take after Gagner never came , much to my chagrin . He went 26th after the likes of Plante and doling out plenty to move down for wasted pick Riley . Perron 340-114-198-232 (tops in first round despite only playing 340games and being the most dynamic player in Memorial Cup with J.Bernier) .

I'd also like to get the NBR.11 pick that year Brandon Sutter . Those gaffes really set the Oilers back and harkened the tailspin we are still trying to overcome . M.Pacioretti nbrs. whom we let go to take Riley was 246-68-85-153-170P.I.M. Man , did we ever screw up with other two picks in round one .

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#57 madjam
June 27 2013, 07:35AM
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G Money wrote:

Ah, the DSF speciality - cherry picked stats and small sample sizes.

JVR's 1.00PPG in a staggering 7 games is no more valid a sign of him 'breaking out' then Gagner and his 8-point game (which for the mathematically challenged is an 8.0 PPG rate over only a slightly smaller sample size).

For the record, the PPG for this last season:

JVR - 0.67 Perron - 0.52 Gagner - 0.79

It is possible, though not probable that JVR will make the necessary 18% improvement in his PPG rate in order to match Gagner. Both are old enough that they are nearing the top of their development curve, but both young enough that their actually fully developed games won't show for another year or two.

Unlikely that at this point Perron is going to make the 52% improvement in his PPG rate needed to match Ganye, no matter who he plays with.

I also expect Gagner - who will have a second year man in Yakupov on one side and hopefully a good possession winger on the other side - to improve next year, though as with JVR and Perron, those improvements should be measured in single digit percentages.

Not much has changed from their draft year 2007 surprisingly . JVR went NBR.2 , Gagner we lucked out on at 6 because of his size , Voracek went 7th whom we also coveted , Perron went surprisingly 26th and Pacioretti one after Riley @22 I believe . All good players except for Riley .

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#58 madjam
June 27 2013, 07:42AM
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K_Mart wrote:

While Couture, Kane, and Pacioretty are all guys I'd rather have over Gagner, I much prefer him over JVR and Perron. Gags was a fair pick and hasn't really disappointed relative to his draft class.

Kanes in a class by himself , the rest are pretty close to even and the case can be made that Gagner may be the best of the lot beyond Kane . They are all good players , to bad we only have one of them .

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