TEN YEARS AFTER!

Lowetide
June 09 2013 12:35PM

Ten years ago, on a cold dark night, the Edmonton Oilers chose poorly in a deep, deep draft. It has cost them for a decade, as other teams gathered one, two even three important parts of their foundation while the Oilers watched their picks fade away.

There are some saying the 2013 entry draft is the strongest since 2003. A repeat of the performance of one decade ago must be avoided at all costs.

WHAT HAPPENED IN 2003

It is a credit to the OilersNation fanbase that I don't need to spend much time on 2003--we all know the story. However, a brief summary is in order:

  • The Oilers traded down in the first round, dealing #17 (Lou Lamoriello would select Zack Parise) for #22 (Marc Pouliot, who contracted everything but polio after being drafted) and #68 (Jean-Francois Jacques, who skated like the wind but spent his pro career far away from the puck--I think he had some kind of allergy to rubber). Not only did they miss Parise, but Ryan Getlzaf, Ryan Kesler, Mike Richards and Corey Perry would also be selected in this first round). "We didn't even have a name tag for him because we didn't think he'd be there" said Lamoriello about Parise.
  • The Oilers chose Colin McDonald from a second tier USA league (EJHL) with the 51st selection. Chicago picked Corey Crawford with the next selection and St. Louis chose David Backes 11 picks later.
  • Mike Comrie's situation was months from being resolved.
  • Deep in the 2003 draft, 214th overall, came the good news of the day: Kyle Brodziak, a player Oilers scout Lorne Davis wanted to draft a year earlier, finally became an Oiler.

TEN YEARS GONE

Let's review the results of the 2003 draft:

  • #22 C Marc Pouliot (192, 21-36-57)
  • #51 R Colin McDonald (52, 8-10-18)
  • #68 L J-F Jacques (166, 9-8-17)

This year, Edmonton once again has three picks in the first two rounds and one hopes they'll do miles better.

THIRTY-SEVEN

  • #37 overall. The Favorite--C Ryan Hartman. Redline loves him too, saying that he's a real 'prick' to play against. Certainly has enough skill to play on a skill line moving forward.
  • #37 overall. The Trending Player--D Chris Bigras, Corey Pronman says:

FIFTY-SIX

  • #56 overall. The Favorite--G Tristan Jarry. They know the player, his SP is all-world and he is absolutely one of the best goaltenders available in the draft. Hard to argue against this selection (outside of 'draft for need').
  • #56 overall. The Trending Player--R Michael McCarron. Big PF type, brother of Oilers pick from a year ago (John McCarron) and Prongman tells us his story:

SAW HIM GOOD--THE SCOUTING REPORT

We don't know the Oilers list--I think there's a very good chance that Edmonton deals #7 overall based on reports (the most recent being a Bob McKenzie tweet from last night). The key item is make those picks count. Stu MacGregor and his crew have three bullets early (currently) and need to make them count.

I'm absolutely certain they have something more sophisticated than "I love redheads" as a scouting report, and am confident they'll deliver quality. That 2003 draft can serve as a cautionary tale, though. Trust your board, examine injury history, understand tier 2 is tier 2 and perhaps the fastest, biggest guy should also be skilled too.

We're three weeks away. It's going to be a thrill ride this summer, with the entry draft the top of the mountain.

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Lowetide has been one of the Oilogosphere's shining lights for over a century. You can check him out here at OilersNation and at lowetide.ca. He is also the host of Lowdown with Lowetide weekday mornings 10-noon on TSN 1260.
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#52 MarcusBillius
June 09 2013, 06:26PM
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I don't understand the fascination with trading down. We already have so many prospects, we don't need more second-tier options. Between Rajala, Pitlick, Lander, Davidson, Fedun and others, we have enough "might-make-it" types stocking the shelves in Oklahoma.

A Monahan, Lindholm, or even Nurse would be ideal.

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#53 Naky
June 09 2013, 06:39PM
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You can still get a good player if you trade down. Klefbom was selected at 19th, if you remember and he's a great prospect and one other teams envy as well. This draft is an even deeper one so even if you nail a prospect on the level of a Klefbom with a lower pick AND you can get some quality veteran help right now for trading that pick, that's a deal we should make. We should be done relying on high first round draft picks to make this team better. It's time to start using those assets to build a better support cast around our already existing core if we can. Else, sure, we'll draft a Monaham/Lindholm/Nurse type but I'm hoping only if there really wasn't a better deal available.

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#54 Walter Sobchak
June 09 2013, 06:49PM
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Racki wrote:

More writing this to say I get where you were coming from with your last post in the Horcoff to a contender thread...

I will say that the 2nd last line there is why I like MacTavish, as he seems like he'll be aggressive and not be scared to upset the fanbase with every little tweak he does.

Actions do speak louder than words though, but I think MacT will live up to this boldness he speaks of.. just hopefully it pays off.

On another note, Bob Stauffer tweeted that the Oilers are going to have a meeting with the Pro Scouts. This has been a huge area of weakness... I am hoping for some new minds in here, and some old minds out.. at least with the north american group.

Ya, I agreed with your last post on the other thread too, I'm just going to wait and see, not making my mind up till training camp.

However, I can agree that he has been aggressive in the approach and his word are encouraging.

I think it's time the pro-scouts got new blood.

I sure would like that Barkov though! Having said that, I'm good if a like player comes via trade.

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#55 MarcusBillius
June 09 2013, 06:49PM
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@Naky

I wouldn't mind a veteran at all, but I don't see one coming with a move from 7 to 12 or so.

If we could get, say, Hanzal, by simply trading down, I'd be all for it. But it'd likely take the 7th overall pick period to do that.

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#56 Harlie
June 09 2013, 07:02PM
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So if it's Eakins...who does he bring in? Moose as AC? Maurice? Someone poached from the A?

MacT is SIUTBOHC to the Summer of Steve.

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#57 Harlie
June 09 2013, 07:16PM
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P.S - Ten Years Gone equals blasting my older bro's speakers in my parents bassement and SUMMERTIME and GIRLS GIRLS GIRLS

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#58 MarcusBillius
June 09 2013, 07:37PM
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@Harlie

Messier? Please. Man wants nothing to do with Edmonton. There was an article here a while ago saying that Messier was offered the head coaching job before Krueger, by Lowe, and Messier declined due to "family reasons".

Besides, do we really want a guy who has never coached at any level behind our bench? Really? The only thing the Messier story did was to confirm to anyone who's been following events that Kevin Lowe has apparently suffered multiple undiagnosed concussions and shouldn't be allowed to make any decisions more serious than "fork or spoon", and even then should probably settle for a spork.

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#59 Harlie
June 09 2013, 07:45PM
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I'm 95% sure it's not Messier, but him and Eakins were in NY at the same time, even if it was only for a cup of Juan Valdez for Eakins.

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#60 Oiler Al
June 09 2013, 07:45PM
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Lowetide wrote:

Yeah, loved that movie and that song especially. He passed away in March, great guitar player.

http://hollywoodlife.com/2013/03/07/alvin-lee-dead-woodstock-guitarist-dies-ten-years-after/

You got to know back then, the boys were surely into some Cricklewood Green,when you check out the long running "speedy " blues runs.!

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#61 madjam
June 09 2013, 07:49PM
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Jasper wrote:

Redline and McKeen's has Nurse ahead of Rasmus in their rankings also.

If Madjam wants to get into numbers it not even close , he is using 1 opinion and it has become his bible.

Not entirely true , and why would you be so critical of Pronman and his Hockey Perpective ? Hockey Propect Black Book rates Nurse at 16th and Ristolainen at 9 . McKeen out of the ball park with some of his top 30 . Monohan at 11 , Ristolainen at 21 , Nicushkin at 6 (Flames would like that ) , Zadorov at seventh . Not sold on McKeen . You want to pay for Redline - go ahead most of info is basically free anyways .

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#62 Sliderule
June 09 2013, 08:03PM
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madjam wrote:

I'd take into account MacKenzie , but not Button . I like Monohan as well at 7th in case anyone wants to know . I just feel Oilers might prefer to take another "safe prospect " (Hockey Futures projection of Monohan and Ristolainen )for a defenseman this time around . Hockey Futures rates top six as NHL all stars or better , and obviously I'd be happy if we maybe got one of them .

I am not a fan of Horvat at all . Without the puck the kid is lost . One way hockey player made to look good by the terrific two way play of Domi . A floater coming back - needs time to develop a two way game .

Horvat didn't play to much with Domi..the Domi who was -9 in M cup.

Horvat was on shutdown line with line mates Tierney and Anderson.

These two got a total of 41 goals between them making what Horvat did all the more impressive.

He took almost all the important face-offs and won most of them in playoffs and M cup

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#63 NewAgeSys
June 09 2013, 09:53PM
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Muji wrote:

Not only did the Oilers pick wrong on draft day (Pouliot #22, Colin McDonald #51, JF Jacques #68), they also acquired many failed 2003 prospects in the years afterwards, wasting resources and time.

This list includes: - Robert Nilsson (#15) - Shawn Belle (#30) - Ryan Stone (#32) - Patrick O'Sullivan (#56)

7 players that were taken in the 1st and 2nd round of the 2003 draft have passed through the Oilers organization and only 1 (Colin McDonald) has found employment in the NHL (obviously not with the Oilers!).

By my count, about 20-25 of the 1st and 2nd rounders turned into ELITE NHLers; many more turned into regular NHLers. It takes bad luck to miss out on one of those elite players. It takes total incompetence to miss out on even 1 regular NHLer!

Nothing is Random. There is a dynamic template to every set of results that can be created to accurately represent the history of causality.

WHY do you think the historic results have produced a record like this? What influence can you accurately say has been there consistantly long enough to give us this long term decades old record of results?

If you simply eliminate fluke and fortune then you have a firm starting point to finding true causality.

What areas and environments within the organisation have the optimal potential to hold such an influence for such a prolonged timespan? There cant be that many of these dynamic situations in existance from an organizational perspective.

Long term results MUST match with long term dynamic influences or lack thereof. This is Nature speaking not an opinion. Anyone can dig around and find the reason for this challenging record of negative results.

The challenge in its entirity can be solved by an honest look in the Mirror by someone with tangible power to initiate change, by someone who cares enough to maintain an elite level of integrity and accountability during and AFTER that look in the Mirror.

I believe we will see things turn around with Mac-T at the helm.

Yes you are right the Draft record is horrendous, but an honest evaluation of the causality of this record is also turning out to be a big part of the catalyst of the Curative actions we see being applied today.

Someone has gone back and re-evaluated a hell of a lot of factors here, and that volume and elite level of hard work is showing itself now.

Someone is putting in the sweat, we are seeing the blood and tears, all we have to look forward to is more of the same until those ingredients manifest themselves as wins. Everything is looking good to me, lets march forward.

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#64 EHH Team
June 10 2013, 09:43AM
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Naky wrote:

You can still get a good player if you trade down. Klefbom was selected at 19th, if you remember and he's a great prospect and one other teams envy as well. This draft is an even deeper one so even if you nail a prospect on the level of a Klefbom with a lower pick AND you can get some quality veteran help right now for trading that pick, that's a deal we should make. We should be done relying on high first round draft picks to make this team better. It's time to start using those assets to build a better support cast around our already existing core if we can. Else, sure, we'll draft a Monaham/Lindholm/Nurse type but I'm hoping only if there really wasn't a better deal available.

You can trade down and get a good player, but the odds of success are much lower than getting a good player with the seven pick. I would much rather try to trade up (without selling the farm) or holding at number seven.

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#65 Smokey
June 10 2013, 10:03AM
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MarcusBillius wrote:

I wouldn't mind a veteran at all, but I don't see one coming with a move from 7 to 12 or so.

If we could get, say, Hanzal, by simply trading down, I'd be all for it. But it'd likely take the 7th overall pick period to do that.

I got no issue with trading down if you have a targeted guy you can get later, unless Nichuskin drops. From 6-10 the picks are the second tier of top picks and its debatable what order they are going in. I see Monahan, Lindholm, Nurse, Ristolainen, Nichuskin. But there is no way in heck I'm trading outta the top ten, and need a good veteran or low second round pick or something something to make that move.

They just better not trade down for a Lazar at 16th or whatever, that would be bad.

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#66 madjam
June 10 2013, 10:07AM
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LETS MAKE A DEAL . Find out who Buffalo wants and swap picks with them as long it is not the player we want . Price could land us another 2nd round pick or perhaps a third and 4th round pick that we currently do not have . That way we get our player plus additional draft picks , and they get their player plus they still retain their 16th pick . It's a win win proposition .

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