A GOOD DAY

Lowetide
July 10 2013 06:59PM

“Sam Gagner has really developed into a leader here, the type of character we want. And that’s going to be important when I’m making the decisions that we have the type of culture in that room. We’ve had a few years of too much of a circus in there. And that’s going to change" Craig MacTavish

This is (as the British say) a sticky wicket for player and team. Ideally this contract would have been signed a year ago and run several seasons into free agency. Sam Gagner filed today for salary arbitration, meaning the clock is ticking for a one year deal (the arbitration guarantees a one year contract, since there's no buying free agent seasons). This time next season, Gagner could be the youngest NHL free agent in league history and the Oilers want badly to make sure that doesn't happen.

On the other hand, Gagner has been a good soldier for the Oilers, in fact he's been instrumental in recruitment and has been a pleasure to watch with the puck. It's certain his representation is pushing for a strong number, a number that is likely outside the Oilers comfort zone (obviously, since he remains unsigned).

What's going to happen? In listening to Jason Gregor's show lately, I've gotten the feeling that both sides are interested in getting this thing done. Gagner as an Oiler makes sense, both sides are saying the right things and the money will get done. That's the feeling I get from listening to both sides, suspect it gets done well short of the hearing.

ARRIVALS AND DEPARTURES

The Oilers made a trade today, a big one, A BOLD ONE, if you will. David Perron is a veteran winger with terrific skills, and should be able to help turn those crazy 2line results from this past season. Perron is signed to a three year deal, and those seasons should be very successful in Edmonton. We talked about Perron here.

I think it's a solid addition by Craig MacTavish, and Perron's conversation with Jason Gregor earlier today suggests he's very much looking forward to playing LW on the Oilers this coming season.

DON'T STOP THERE!

MacT's quotes today were a stunning item for this Oilers fan. Allow me to quote the GM on the addition of Perron:

  • "He's right up there with controlling the play and shots for and against differential."

And then this one, courtesy Terry Jones:

  • “It’ll be a good test for our analytics guys. They have him with some of the game’s elite.”

What does this tell us? The Oilers are paying attention to advanced stats--shots for and against differential is absolutely Corsi--and that is a tremendous sign for the Oilers and Oilers Nation. And when he talks about analytics guys, those are the people who are digging down to see which players can survive difficult zone starts, tough minutes, miles and miles of bad road. This is a brilliant day.

WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN?

It means that when the Oilers have a chance to improve their 3line this summer, fall or next spring, they'll be signing or trading for more Daniel Winniks and fewer guys who can't do that difficult job.

It means success. It means, at some level ladies and gentlemen, that the Perron trade might be the second best thing for Oiler fans today.

That's a good day.

C2a6955161684b5e3189319acfa5ebe4
Lowetide has been one of the Oilogosphere's shining lights for over a century. You can check him out here at OilersNation and at lowetide.ca. He is also the host of Lowdown with Lowetide weekday mornings 10-noon on Team 1260.
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#51 Sammy
July 10 2013, 07:53PM
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@DSF

Trade him for Sean Couturier after that Philly would need to trade Coburn

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#52 otter2233
July 10 2013, 07:56PM
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Lowetide wrote:

Would you do Hemsky to Anaheim for Winnick and a pick?

LT, I think so to getting Winnik... But would you do Hemsky to the Islanders for Matt Martin and a pick instead? May be an easier deal to do considering the Ducks are in the same division. Martin is about the same size and 4 years younger. His Corsi isn't as good but playing wing with Gordon could help that perhaps...

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#53 Fee Logolin
July 10 2013, 08:00PM
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horndog77 wrote:

So a Smyth / Gordon/ Hemsky for the third Then a Eager/ Lander/ Brown for the fourth

Gotta say that third line doesn't do much for me.

I dont think Lander starts here - and I think we have to assume Hemsky is moved out of town before training camp. Jones I think starts on 3rd or 4th line? How do we still address needs at centre and defines? Cap teams which are trade targets need cap relief MPS was an asset there. So maybe prospects and draft picks are all we have to use? Hemsky goes for picks which then can be turned around for need?? Lowtide what are your thoughts on Fiddler in Dallas for 3 or 4 C? numbers good. Then on D if Coburn still in mix then you need to use guys like Potter, prospects and picks?

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#54 DSF
July 10 2013, 08:01PM
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Lowetide wrote:

Would you do Hemsky to Anaheim for Winnick and a pick?

Anaheim's RW depth:

Corey Perry

Teemu Selanne (if he comes back)

Emerson Etem

Jakub Silfverberg

Devante Smyth-Pelly

Brad Staubitz

Stefan Noesen

Zack Stortini

I would think the Oilers would have to eat half of Hemsky's salary and throw in a 1st round pick to even get their attention

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#55 Senhor
July 10 2013, 08:09PM
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I liked all of Tambellini's signings 2 years ago, as most fans , writers, and basement bloggers did. I like what MacT has done also. So what have we learned? Play the games.

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#56 Smokey
July 10 2013, 08:22PM
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Analytics in justifying a trade seem to be MacT calling card to convince the masses, but get ignored when deciding to resign a player. Gagner bloated contract will be justified by promoting work ethic, stats, and compete level. Two way play will talk will be shoved under the rug.

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#57 bazmagoo
July 10 2013, 08:27PM
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Senhor wrote:

I liked all of Tambellini's signings 2 years ago, as most fans , writers, and basement bloggers did. I like what MacT has done also. So what have we learned? Play the games.

Couldn't have been said better bud - very true. That said, I do like the moves and think we are a better team today than we were at the end of last season.

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#58 Justin
July 10 2013, 08:33PM
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@kdunbar

No.

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#59 Justin
July 10 2013, 08:34PM
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@kdunbar

No

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#60 Jerod
July 10 2013, 08:37PM
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Sammy wrote:

Trade him for Sean Couturier after that Philly would need to trade Coburn

Oiler fans would hate that deal. Philly fans would hate that deal.

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#61 Mike Krushelnyski
July 10 2013, 08:39PM
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dv.asteroid wrote:

Please trade Sam... he and oil will both be better having done so.

Agreed. Sam is a streaky player and will get a big arbitration deal based on a good shortened season with elite linemates. His camp knows this and will squeeze the oilers big time in contract negotiations. The ghost of Tambo screws us for hopefully the last time with that 1 year deal.

Does anyone know what happens when a player has already filed for arbitration, but gets his rights traded before signing a deal? Does he have to re-file for arbitration or does he get the same hearing date with the new team?

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#62 GVBlackhawk
July 10 2013, 08:41PM
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DSF wrote:

The Oilers can still negotiate up until the arbitration hearing (July 22-Aug 6) but if they can't reach an agreement they either have to accept the award or walk away.

I think they'll trade him before then

If you think they will trade him, that pretty much guarantees they will sign him. You know...poor prognostication history and all.

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#63 Rocket
July 10 2013, 08:47PM
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@Mike Krushelnyski

Totally. I know I say this a lot but I can't believe how much Tabellini sucked at being a GM. He definitely left MacT a big mess to clean up.

I hope The Oilers finally decide what to do with Gagner long term. Sign him or trade him, just get it done already!

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#64 madjam
July 10 2013, 08:47PM
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I think Hemsky remains here till at least trade deadline if we are to get much out of a trade . Gagner and Oilers will most likely settle before arbitration as both intent on doing so . If we can carry Smyth for the season , I see no reason we can not do same for Hemsky till at least trade deadline where his value escalates . Can Hemsky adapt in the interim to be an effective 7-9 third liner -I believe he can , and also fill in top 2 lines when required , PP and shootouts which are frequent .

Seeing as both might stay , what else might we do to be bold ? First off : Landers and Brown are 2 of our worst possession personnel from last year . I expect Oilers will try to upgrade on both of them.

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#65 Shifty203
July 10 2013, 08:57PM
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Didn't Gags file for arbitration last year too, but they got a deal done before hand? I'm pretty sure Gregor said last year not to worry, as the year before that, of the 20 that filed for arbitration, 1 actually made it to the meeting. The rest were resigned before hand.

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#66 Rocket
July 10 2013, 08:57PM
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@GVBlackhawk

I'd put Hemsky behind Perry on the second line ahead of Selane. Imagine Hemsky playing with Cogliano again! Hilarious!

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#67 Oiler Al
July 10 2013, 09:01PM
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Why not list Gagner at 6 ft. and 205 lbs. and then resign him.

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#68 Racki
July 10 2013, 09:01PM
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Mike Krushelnyski wrote:

Agreed. Sam is a streaky player and will get a big arbitration deal based on a good shortened season with elite linemates. His camp knows this and will squeeze the oilers big time in contract negotiations. The ghost of Tambo screws us for hopefully the last time with that 1 year deal.

Does anyone know what happens when a player has already filed for arbitration, but gets his rights traded before signing a deal? Does he have to re-file for arbitration or does he get the same hearing date with the new team?

Oops.. deleted my original post.... I just remembered that a player can't SIGN AN OFFER SHEET when they're awaiting arbitration.. not that they can't be traded. Ignore me.

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#69 bazmagoo
July 10 2013, 09:01PM
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Wonder if we'll ever be able to pry Coburn out of Philly now. You'd have to think a 2nd round pick would have to be part of that deal.

Only two scenarios I saw working would be Hemsky (Oil eating half his salary/cap) plus a 2nd round pick, or Nick Schultz plus a 2nd round pick.

Maybe Nick Schultz straight up for Coburn? Oilers eat quarter of Schultz's salary/cap hit?

Would love to see the following d pairings to start the season:

Coburn - Ference

Smid - Petry

Klefbom - J Schultz

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#70 madjam
July 10 2013, 09:07PM
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Lowetide : Firstly , what would it take to get Cliff Thorburn off the Jets , and A.Henrique off the Devils . Secondly would they be good acquisitions ?

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#71 RexLibris
July 10 2013, 09:09PM
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Alyssa Milano.

Nice choice. The only reason I watched Who's the Boss.

Looking at this trade now this is what I get from it: MacTavish turned a 3LW into a 2LW.

That is worth noting for this organization.

The Oilers are a better team when I go to bed tonight than they were when I woke up this morning.

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#72 Jerod
July 10 2013, 09:10PM
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Size matters in the NHL.

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#73 BArmstrong
July 10 2013, 09:15PM
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Hemsky will not be back in the Oiler's locker room again. MacT will move him, but I'll bet he eats some or most of the salary/cap hit.

In the last four seasons, Hemsky has potted 10 goals per. Perhaps a 10 goal per season scorer with a juicy 5mil contract isn't as desirable as all you Hemsky fans think.

I know how it feels, I was a Horcoff fan.

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#74 Quicksilver ballet
July 10 2013, 09:16PM
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If every dollar possible is Gagners paramount concern, then deal him now rather than complicating things 2 or 3 yrs down the road. He'll still get the most important thing to him from his next team.

I'd rather watch Hall, RNH, Yakupov, Eberle and Schultz before i'd watch Ganye. Puck Sam.

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#75 Quicksilver ballet
July 10 2013, 09:21PM
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BArmstrong wrote:

Hemsky will not be back in the Oiler's locker room again. MacT will move him, but I'll bet he eats some or most of the salary/cap hit.

In the last four seasons, Hemsky has potted 10 goals per. Perhaps a 10 goal per season scorer with a juicy 5mil contract isn't as desirable as all you Hemsky fans think.

I know how it feels, I was a Horcoff fan.

Rather than take a bath on him this summer. Why not see how things go and move him at the Trade deadline?

Could get a second rounder back for him.

Guess there goes the Clifford thing with the Oilers moving that selection today.

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#76 Jerod
July 10 2013, 09:22PM
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Shifty203 wrote:

Martin St. Louis called. He said you're out of touch with reality.

Aberration

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#77 BArmstrong
July 10 2013, 09:29PM
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@Quicksilver ballet

I think there'd be too much weirdness between parties. And, the locker room would suffer - more from a general discomfort than actual dissension.

I'll bet you the back of pucks that comes back in the deal that he's moved before training camp:)

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#78 MKE
July 10 2013, 09:29PM
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DSF wrote:

Anaheim's RW depth:

Corey Perry

Teemu Selanne (if he comes back)

Emerson Etem

Jakub Silfverberg

Devante Smyth-Pelly

Brad Staubitz

Stefan Noesen

Zack Stortini

I would think the Oilers would have to eat half of Hemsky's salary and throw in a 1st round pick to even get their attention

So Mike Gillis....the Oilers are going to give the Ducks a scoring winger at a cap hit of 2.5 million, AND throw in a first round pick?

And they have to offer that to even get the Ducks attention for Daniel Winnik? The guy with a career high 11 goals and no more then 26 points in a season? And with a very average cap hit of 1.8 million?

Not only is this totally insane...even for you, but I've always figured someone with such an ego and thirst for perfection would make posts that were even somewhat realistic.

Go back in your hole Mike Gillis. And continue your tail spin to the unemployment line

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#80 DSF
July 10 2013, 09:33PM
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MKE wrote:

So Mike Gillis....the Oilers are going to give the Ducks a scoring winger at a cap hit of 2.5 million, AND throw in a first round pick?

And they have to offer that to even get the Ducks attention for Daniel Winnik? The guy with a career high 11 goals and no more then 26 points in a season? And with a very average cap hit of 1.8 million?

Not only is this totally insane...even for you, but I've always figured someone with such an ego and thirst for perfection would make posts that were even somewhat realistic.

Go back in your hole Mike Gillis. And continue your tail spin to the unemployment line

The Ducks need a RW like a fish needs a bicycle.

The Ducks have very few LW and aren't going to trade one for a redundant player.

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#81 BArmstrong
July 10 2013, 09:34PM
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@MKE

Are DSF and Mike Gillis the same? Holy %$@#!

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#82 DSF
July 10 2013, 09:35PM
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BArmstrong wrote:

Are DSF and Mike Gillis the same? Holy %$@#!

Yes. :)

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#83 BArmstrong
July 10 2013, 09:39PM
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@DSF

Isn't Etem a center and Silfverberg a LW?

I agree that the Ducks have NO desire for Hemsky.

Gotta think Garth Snow - he might bite.

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#84 Quicksilver ballet
July 10 2013, 09:42PM
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BArmstrong wrote:

I think there'd be too much weirdness between parties. And, the locker room would suffer - more from a general discomfort than actual dissension.

I'll bet you the back of pucks that comes back in the deal that he's moved before training camp:)

Could he be anymore withdrawn in that room than he is already? Not sure he's much of a leader at all really. He'd be the same teammate he's been the last 5 yrs i'm thinking. If he wants his paycheque that is.

You're probably right though. Like Horcoff, the feeling is probably mutual with Hemsky as well. Be a decent change to have added a first guy on the ice,last one off in Perron, for Hemsky who was the last guy on, and the first one off.

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#85 MKE
July 10 2013, 09:48PM
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BArmstrong wrote:

Are DSF and Mike Gillis the same? Holy %$@#!

Ya...their egos are exactly the same size, and they both spend all their time talking crazy out of their A#$.

That's when I made the connection

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#86 MKE
July 10 2013, 10:01PM
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Just a thought. And this has probably already been thrown out there.

If Sam won't resign in a reasonable time frame, I don't think the Oilers keep him.

So if they can't get him resigned to a long term deal, what do you do for a second line center? I just don't think it makes sense to over pay for Gagner

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#87 Smokey
July 10 2013, 10:08PM
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God wrote:

Here here! Great trade.

Now dump Hemsky for spair parts.

Trade Gagner for a solid Dman.

Sign Grabo! He's super high on the 'crazy nuts. His insanity-CORSI is off the scale!

Hang Whitney from the Gretzky statue as incentive for the others to perform.

Do it.

Hang Whitney cause his feet are broken? Guy could not pivot or skate anymore due to his feet. Guy tried.

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#88 madjam
July 10 2013, 10:12PM
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Lowetide wrote:

It's funny, because I call the WPG winger Cliff Thorburn because of that pool player guy, wonder if you do the same? Anyway, it's CHRIS Thorburn. I always call him Cliff. 4line guy, not much of a player but he's big and can cause harm. He's certainly good enough to play in the NHL doing a tough job, so if the Oilers want that player type I'd think he would be a player of interest.

Henrique is a whole other deal. He's a real nice player, should have a strong career.

Yes , and thanks for correcting me . He does have some offence but limited as are most 4th liners . Jets got him for a third round pick . How to guage Henrique is difficult to figure what type of offer would be required .

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#89 MKE
July 10 2013, 10:13PM
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Lowetide wrote:

Gagner would have terrific value. Florida would love him I'm sure, but of course Edmonton has issues at C as well.

Ya Edmonton almost needs a center back in that deal. Almost like a lateral move. I'm racking my brain. But I can't think of a "win win" trade with anyone involving a center.

I mean you can trade Gagner+ for a dman, but then you are still left with a huge whole at center. So I don't claim to know either.

Columbus does come to mind again with maybe a bigger trade involving two or three pieces from both sides...

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#90 Young Oil
July 10 2013, 10:19PM
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Lowetide wrote:

Gagner would have terrific value. Florida would love him I'm sure, but of course Edmonton has issues at C as well.

If we could do something like Gagner (+?) for Kulikov, then sign Grabovski, I would be ecstatic.

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#91 MKE
July 10 2013, 10:21PM
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@Young Oil

Not a bad deal depending on what the + part is

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#92 Young Oil
July 10 2013, 10:21PM
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MKE wrote:

Ya Edmonton almost needs a center back in that deal. Almost like a lateral move. I'm racking my brain. But I can't think of a "win win" trade with anyone involving a center.

I mean you can trade Gagner+ for a dman, but then you are still left with a huge whole at center. So I don't claim to know either.

Columbus does come to mind again with maybe a bigger trade involving two or three pieces from both sides...

Gagner, N. Schultz, D prospect not named Klefbom/Nurse, 2014 1st to CBJ for Dubinski and Nikitin?

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#93 nuge2nail
July 10 2013, 10:32PM
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MKE wrote:

It's totally plausible they move him if he won't sign for a reasonable number on a long term deal.

So since its still a free country, I'll suggest it all I want :)

Oiler Domination To Follow

Feel free to suggest it- as long as your suggestion has a 2nd line center coming back in the trade.

While your at it throw in a 4th line center coming back our way as well.

We need one of those too.

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#94 madjam
July 10 2013, 10:34PM
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Whats Hemsky worth if we trade him now ? Probably the lowest value he will ever be at I suspect . At trade deadline comes perhaps a second plus . Then at seasons end it is possible for him to resign with us at a contract that might benefit us . Not saying it would happen , but not totally discarding it either depending on how well he does for us this season perhaps .

Side note : Jets are bare/starved for offensive R.Wingers except for Wheeler . I'd be surprised if they were not interested in Hemsky .

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#95 MKE
July 10 2013, 10:34PM
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@nuge2nail

I'm not as worried about a 4th. And ya they do need to have someone else replace Gagner if you move him.

But you can't bring him back on a one year deal and risk losing him as a UFA

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#96 MKE
July 10 2013, 10:37PM
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@madjam

He has some value to the right team who has a need for his skill set. I know...i'm stating the obvious.

If you could move him for a useful roster player without having to take any of Hemsky's cap hit, I would say that would be a win. IMO

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#97 DSF
July 10 2013, 10:38PM
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MKE wrote:

You aren't even on your game tonight. Beyond Goc....all of these guys are unproven.

Gagner is an upgrade over everyone else at this point. Barkov might be better down the line, and most likely will be much better down the line.

But not at this point.

Mr Gillis you really are a train wreck tonight

Yeah, I'd go spend $5M on a player who isn't likely better than any of those guys,

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#98 BArmstrong
July 10 2013, 10:38PM
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Derek Stepan? Is he still an RFA? Would he sign an offer sheet? Anything between 3.4 and 5 million is a first and a third compensation (Oiler's have those, no?)

If Stepan signs, move an unsigned Gags+ for #2 or #3 D-man.

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#99 MKE
July 10 2013, 10:41PM
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@k

You must be drinking the same koolaid as DSF tonight

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#100 DSF
July 10 2013, 10:43PM
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Lowetide wrote:

I think Dave Keon lives in Florida, maybe throw him in!

Oh, give it up.

Florida likely has 3 centres who are better than than Sam right out of the box.

They're not going to spend a cent to get 50 cents on the dollar.

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