A GOOD DAY

Lowetide
July 10 2013 06:59PM

“Sam Gagner has really developed into a leader here, the type of character we want. And that’s going to be important when I’m making the decisions that we have the type of culture in that room. We’ve had a few years of too much of a circus in there. And that’s going to change" Craig MacTavish

This is (as the British say) a sticky wicket for player and team. Ideally this contract would have been signed a year ago and run several seasons into free agency. Sam Gagner filed today for salary arbitration, meaning the clock is ticking for a one year deal (the arbitration guarantees a one year contract, since there's no buying free agent seasons). This time next season, Gagner could be the youngest NHL free agent in league history and the Oilers want badly to make sure that doesn't happen.

On the other hand, Gagner has been a good soldier for the Oilers, in fact he's been instrumental in recruitment and has been a pleasure to watch with the puck. It's certain his representation is pushing for a strong number, a number that is likely outside the Oilers comfort zone (obviously, since he remains unsigned).

What's going to happen? In listening to Jason Gregor's show lately, I've gotten the feeling that both sides are interested in getting this thing done. Gagner as an Oiler makes sense, both sides are saying the right things and the money will get done. That's the feeling I get from listening to both sides, suspect it gets done well short of the hearing.

ARRIVALS AND DEPARTURES

The Oilers made a trade today, a big one, A BOLD ONE, if you will. David Perron is a veteran winger with terrific skills, and should be able to help turn those crazy 2line results from this past season. Perron is signed to a three year deal, and those seasons should be very successful in Edmonton. We talked about Perron here.

I think it's a solid addition by Craig MacTavish, and Perron's conversation with Jason Gregor earlier today suggests he's very much looking forward to playing LW on the Oilers this coming season.

DON'T STOP THERE!

MacT's quotes today were a stunning item for this Oilers fan. Allow me to quote the GM on the addition of Perron:

  • "He's right up there with controlling the play and shots for and against differential."

And then this one, courtesy Terry Jones:

  • “It’ll be a good test for our analytics guys. They have him with some of the game’s elite.”

What does this tell us? The Oilers are paying attention to advanced stats--shots for and against differential is absolutely Corsi--and that is a tremendous sign for the Oilers and Oilers Nation. And when he talks about analytics guys, those are the people who are digging down to see which players can survive difficult zone starts, tough minutes, miles and miles of bad road. This is a brilliant day.

WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN?

It means that when the Oilers have a chance to improve their 3line this summer, fall or next spring, they'll be signing or trading for more Daniel Winniks and fewer guys who can't do that difficult job.

It means success. It means, at some level ladies and gentlemen, that the Perron trade might be the second best thing for Oiler fans today.

That's a good day.

C2a6955161684b5e3189319acfa5ebe4
Lowetide has been one of the Oilogosphere's shining lights for over a century. You can check him out here at OilersNation and at lowetide.ca. He is also the host of Lowdown with Lowetide weekday mornings 10-noon on Team 1260.
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#1 Ari Gold
July 10 2013, 09:24PM
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Here here! Great trade.

Now dump Hemsky for spair parts.

Trade Gagner for a solid Dman.

Sign Grabo! He's super high on the 'crazy nuts. His insanity-CORSI is off the scale!

Hang Whitney from the Gretzky statue as incentive for the others to perform.

Do it.

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#2 DSF
July 10 2013, 09:33PM
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MKE wrote:

So Mike Gillis....the Oilers are going to give the Ducks a scoring winger at a cap hit of 2.5 million, AND throw in a first round pick?

And they have to offer that to even get the Ducks attention for Daniel Winnik? The guy with a career high 11 goals and no more then 26 points in a season? And with a very average cap hit of 1.8 million?

Not only is this totally insane...even for you, but I've always figured someone with such an ego and thirst for perfection would make posts that were even somewhat realistic.

Go back in your hole Mike Gillis. And continue your tail spin to the unemployment line

The Ducks need a RW like a fish needs a bicycle.

The Ducks have very few LW and aren't going to trade one for a redundant player.

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#3 Smokey
July 10 2013, 10:08PM
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Ari Gold wrote:

Here here! Great trade.

Now dump Hemsky for spair parts.

Trade Gagner for a solid Dman.

Sign Grabo! He's super high on the 'crazy nuts. His insanity-CORSI is off the scale!

Hang Whitney from the Gretzky statue as incentive for the others to perform.

Do it.

Hang Whitney cause his feet are broken? Guy could not pivot or skate anymore due to his feet. Guy tried.

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#4 Young Oil
July 10 2013, 10:19PM
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Lowetide wrote:

Gagner would have terrific value. Florida would love him I'm sure, but of course Edmonton has issues at C as well.

If we could do something like Gagner (+?) for Kulikov, then sign Grabovski, I would be ecstatic.

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#5 Young Oil
July 10 2013, 10:21PM
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MKE wrote:

Ya Edmonton almost needs a center back in that deal. Almost like a lateral move. I'm racking my brain. But I can't think of a "win win" trade with anyone involving a center.

I mean you can trade Gagner+ for a dman, but then you are still left with a huge whole at center. So I don't claim to know either.

Columbus does come to mind again with maybe a bigger trade involving two or three pieces from both sides...

Gagner, N. Schultz, D prospect not named Klefbom/Nurse, 2014 1st to CBJ for Dubinski and Nikitin?

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#7 k
July 10 2013, 10:37PM
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Lowetide wrote:

Gagner would have terrific value. Florida would love him I'm sure, but of course Edmonton has issues at C as well.

If Sam had any value he'd be long gone. Sam is the most over-rated player in Oiler history. He isn't very good in any one area and downright awful MOST NIGHT.

MacT would be wise to trade him for an early 2nd round pick. He is a big cut below a top 6 player and can't play 3 or 4 line.

Bye Sam!

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#8 gcw_rocks
July 11 2013, 05:55AM
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If they re-sign Gagner, it would not surprise me at all to see them run Hall - Gagner - Yakupov and Perron - RNH - Eberle as the top 2 lines.

If I am the Oilers, there is no way I let this Gagner thing get to arbitration. If they Gagner's camp won't get into a salary range the Oilers can live with, I would pick up the phone and start shopping Gagner to a team that needs a RW player, or maybe a second line centre.

My first call would be to Dave Tallon in Florida. Florida is deep at centre and LW, but the RW is pretty weak. I would push Gagner and one of the current depth defencemen for Kulikov and Bjugstad or Goc. Then I would throw the money earmarked for Gagner at Grabovski.

Hall - RNH - Eberle

Perron - Grabo - Yakupov

?? - Gordon - Bjugstad or ?? - Goc - Gordon

Smyth - ?? - Jones

Kulikov - Petry

Smid - Schultz Jr

Ference/Shultz Sr/Belov/Potter less whomever goes to Florida

That's pretty darn close to a playoff team.

Nashville is also pretty weak at RW, and with Seth Jones in the fold, I might see about a trade with Gagner and Josi as the centre pieces if Florida didn't bite.

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#9 nuge2nail
July 10 2013, 07:10PM
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Oiler Domination To Follow

Great trade, great day, great article.

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#10 messyEH!
July 10 2013, 07:11PM
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Sail on MPS. Please don't leave for the KHL.

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#11 book¡e
July 10 2013, 07:13PM
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Does our advanced stats team agree?

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#13 nuge2nail
July 10 2013, 07:21PM
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Lowetide wrote:

Last time I saw Willis he was doing carthweels but I wouldn't want to say.

Oiler Domination To Follow

That's coincidental because I was doing back flips when I heard of the trade as well.

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#14 horndog77
July 10 2013, 07:29PM
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LT can you give me your best case scenario for the oilers third and fourth lines? The top two lines are a no brainer but with the additions so far I'm not sure who's going where. Does Hemsky still get traded or does he stay on that third line

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#15 Racki
July 10 2013, 07:30PM
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Things are looking up for the Oil.. still have to play the games, but on paper this team is looking better and better. MacT has been true to his word on the number of new faces we're seeing. The boldness? Maybe not so much, but I think moving Paajarvi I'd consider fairly bold. Most of us didn't expect it. He brought in a really good player in the process that will improve the team.

We all also have to remember that while Tambellini had been bumbling around with this team for a while trying to make it a winner (maybe??), this is year 0 for MacT. He's got work to do, but so far I think the team looks like it is better off.

That all remains to be seen though, but I am pretty confident the team is in good hands.

Next up, find a home for Hemsky... and also get Gagner signed before arbitration (although I still would like to see him moved, I guess the arbitration temporarily stalls that possibility).

Edit: I remember now, it's not that he can't be traded, it's that he can't sign an offersheet with someone else.

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#16 Larry
July 10 2013, 07:30PM
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Arnie Johnson

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#17 oilbaron
July 10 2013, 07:30PM
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seems like a lot people undervalue perron. Look at his hands! Love the trade; Paajarvi will probably be a decent fit in st louis, and talk about skill in the oilers top 6.

get a top 3 D and I think they're pushing for a modest playoff burst. So excited to watch this team play next year!!!

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#18 DSF
July 10 2013, 07:32PM
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Racki wrote:

Things are looking up for the Oil.. still have to play the games, but on paper this team is looking better and better. MacT has been true to his word on the number of new faces we're seeing. The boldness? Maybe not so much, but I think moving Paajarvi I'd consider fairly bold. Most of us didn't expect it. He brought in a really good player in the process that will improve the team.

We all also have to remember that while Tambellini had been bumbling around with this team for a while trying to make it a winner (maybe??), this is year 0 for MacT. He's got work to do, but so far I think the team looks like it is better off.

That all remains to be seen though, but I am pretty confident the team is in good hands.

Next up, find a home for Hemsky... and also get Gagner signed before arbitration (although I still would like to see him moved, I guess the arbitration temporarily stalls that possibility).

Edit: I remember now, it's not that he can't be traded, it's that he can't sign an offersheet with someone else.

The Oilers can still negotiate up until the arbitration hearing (July 22-Aug 6) but if they can't reach an agreement they either have to accept the award or walk away.

I think they'll trade him before then

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#19 Eddie Shore
July 10 2013, 07:32PM
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@Lowetide

With the trade today I think the writing is officially on the wall for Hemsky. I have a hard time picturing a Jones Gordon Hemsky 3rd line. Would it be possible to pick up a 3RW and a 2nd round pick for Hemsky?

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#21 Racki
July 10 2013, 07:36PM
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DSF wrote:

The Oilers can still negotiate up until the arbitration hearing (July 22-Aug 6) but if they can't reach an agreement they either have to accept the award or walk away.

I think they'll trade him before then

Yah I know they can negotiate up until the hearing, I was referring to a rule that I don't completely remember (and might not exist). Re: the arbitration temporary stalling, that was referring to temporary stalling him being MOVED. I thought once a decision was made for a player to go to arbitration, they couldn't be traded during that period. I can't recall if that is true, or if it applies to player elected, team elected, or both.

But anyways, I think they will sign him. They might trade him after that. I actually hope they do, even if the optics might not be the best. But I want to see a more solid #2C here.

Edit: my memory kicked in.. it's not that they can't be traded, it's that they can't sign an offersheet.. nm.

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#23 horndog77
July 10 2013, 07:41PM
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So a Smyth / Gordon/ Hemsky for the third Then a Eager/ Lander/ Brown for the fourth

Gotta say that third line doesn't do much for me.

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#24 Racki
July 10 2013, 07:41PM
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Wherever Hemsky goes, I'm pretty sure the Oilers are going to have to eat some salary.. but for one year, it won't be so bad.

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#25 Eddie Shore
July 10 2013, 07:42PM
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Funny how a lot of people are up in arms about Paajarvi's "potential" when he got moved but Gagner has reached his potential and should be moved. Gagner is only two years older than MPS.

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#27 Racki
July 10 2013, 07:47PM
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Lowetide wrote:

Would you do Hemsky to Anaheim for Winnick and a pick?

Being in the same div as they are next year, I'm not sure both teams would buy into that idea.. but I would do it. Winnick brings great size and defensive ability. I could have sworn his offensive numbers were better than they are, but I guess that just means he's probably a very streaky player (which isn't good, but I'd still consider him a better fit for what we need).

My top choice would be for a Torres kind of spark plug though (just not Torres). Too bad Clutterbuck didn't work out.

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#28 dv.asteroid
July 10 2013, 07:52PM
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Please trade Sam... he and oil will both be better having done so.

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#29 Sammy
July 10 2013, 07:53PM
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@DSF

Trade him for Sean Couturier after that Philly would need to trade Coburn

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#30 otter2233
July 10 2013, 07:56PM
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Lowetide wrote:

Would you do Hemsky to Anaheim for Winnick and a pick?

LT, I think so to getting Winnik... But would you do Hemsky to the Islanders for Matt Martin and a pick instead? May be an easier deal to do considering the Ducks are in the same division. Martin is about the same size and 4 years younger. His Corsi isn't as good but playing wing with Gordon could help that perhaps...

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#31 106 and 106
July 10 2013, 07:59PM
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"He's right up there with controlling the play and shots for and against differential."

[At the same time this is uttered, Willis instantly appears in a man-thong, shaking his hips to Journey and sipping a 2L bottle of Ridin' Dirty.]

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#32 Fee Logolin
July 10 2013, 08:00PM
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horndog77 wrote:

So a Smyth / Gordon/ Hemsky for the third Then a Eager/ Lander/ Brown for the fourth

Gotta say that third line doesn't do much for me.

I dont think Lander starts here - and I think we have to assume Hemsky is moved out of town before training camp. Jones I think starts on 3rd or 4th line? How do we still address needs at centre and defines? Cap teams which are trade targets need cap relief MPS was an asset there. So maybe prospects and draft picks are all we have to use? Hemsky goes for picks which then can be turned around for need?? Lowtide what are your thoughts on Fiddler in Dallas for 3 or 4 C? numbers good. Then on D if Coburn still in mix then you need to use guys like Potter, prospects and picks?

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#33 DSF
July 10 2013, 08:01PM
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Lowetide wrote:

Would you do Hemsky to Anaheim for Winnick and a pick?

Anaheim's RW depth:

Corey Perry

Teemu Selanne (if he comes back)

Emerson Etem

Jakub Silfverberg

Devante Smyth-Pelly

Brad Staubitz

Stefan Noesen

Zack Stortini

I would think the Oilers would have to eat half of Hemsky's salary and throw in a 1st round pick to even get their attention

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#34 Senhor
July 10 2013, 08:09PM
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I liked all of Tambellini's signings 2 years ago, as most fans , writers, and basement bloggers did. I like what MacT has done also. So what have we learned? Play the games.

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#35 Smokey
July 10 2013, 08:22PM
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Analytics in justifying a trade seem to be MacT calling card to convince the masses, but get ignored when deciding to resign a player. Gagner bloated contract will be justified by promoting work ethic, stats, and compete level. Two way play will talk will be shoved under the rug.

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#36 bazmagoo
July 10 2013, 08:27PM
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Senhor wrote:

I liked all of Tambellini's signings 2 years ago, as most fans , writers, and basement bloggers did. I like what MacT has done also. So what have we learned? Play the games.

Couldn't have been said better bud - very true. That said, I do like the moves and think we are a better team today than we were at the end of last season.

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#37 kdunbar
July 10 2013, 08:30PM
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Does anyone think that manny malhotra would be worth taking a chance on for our fourth line?

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#38 Smokey
July 10 2013, 08:33PM
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106 and 106 wrote:

"He's right up there with controlling the play and shots for and against differential."

[At the same time this is uttered, Willis instantly appears in a man-thong, shaking his hips to Journey and sipping a 2L bottle of Ridin' Dirty.]

Post of the week up there with the guy who said his mother throws more hip checks then MPS at the grocery store getting to the till on seniors discount day.. Doesn't Oilernation not have a pizza sponser for best post of the week yet. Wayne should stop waxing his girly legs and burly back and get the Oilernation a free pizza deal for best damn post of the week. Or a free windsheild crack replacement. We Oilernation koolaid drinkers demand free swag...DAMMIT!!! Give us some LOVE.

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#39 Justin
July 10 2013, 08:33PM
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@kdunbar

No.

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#40 Taylor Gang
July 10 2013, 08:34PM
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Senhor wrote:

I liked all of Tambellini's signings 2 years ago, as most fans , writers, and basement bloggers did. I like what MacT has done also. So what have we learned? Play the games.

This move is bolder than anything Tambellini did through his time in Edmonton

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#41 Justin
July 10 2013, 08:34PM
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@kdunbar

No

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#42 Jerod
July 10 2013, 08:37PM
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Sammy wrote:

Trade him for Sean Couturier after that Philly would need to trade Coburn

Oiler fans would hate that deal. Philly fans would hate that deal.

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#43 Mike Krushelnyski
July 10 2013, 08:39PM
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dv.asteroid wrote:

Please trade Sam... he and oil will both be better having done so.

Agreed. Sam is a streaky player and will get a big arbitration deal based on a good shortened season with elite linemates. His camp knows this and will squeeze the oilers big time in contract negotiations. The ghost of Tambo screws us for hopefully the last time with that 1 year deal.

Does anyone know what happens when a player has already filed for arbitration, but gets his rights traded before signing a deal? Does he have to re-file for arbitration or does he get the same hearing date with the new team?

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#44 GVBlackhawk
July 10 2013, 08:41PM
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DSF wrote:

The Oilers can still negotiate up until the arbitration hearing (July 22-Aug 6) but if they can't reach an agreement they either have to accept the award or walk away.

I think they'll trade him before then

If you think they will trade him, that pretty much guarantees they will sign him. You know...poor prognostication history and all.

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#45 Rocket
July 10 2013, 08:47PM
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@Mike Krushelnyski

Totally. I know I say this a lot but I can't believe how much Tabellini sucked at being a GM. He definitely left MacT a big mess to clean up.

I hope The Oilers finally decide what to do with Gagner long term. Sign him or trade him, just get it done already!

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#46 madjam
July 10 2013, 08:47PM
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I think Hemsky remains here till at least trade deadline if we are to get much out of a trade . Gagner and Oilers will most likely settle before arbitration as both intent on doing so . If we can carry Smyth for the season , I see no reason we can not do same for Hemsky till at least trade deadline where his value escalates . Can Hemsky adapt in the interim to be an effective 7-9 third liner -I believe he can , and also fill in top 2 lines when required , PP and shootouts which are frequent .

Seeing as both might stay , what else might we do to be bold ? First off : Landers and Brown are 2 of our worst possession personnel from last year . I expect Oilers will try to upgrade on both of them.

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#47 GVBlackhawk
July 10 2013, 08:52PM
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DSF wrote:

Anaheim's RW depth:

Corey Perry

Teemu Selanne (if he comes back)

Emerson Etem

Jakub Silfverberg

Devante Smyth-Pelly

Brad Staubitz

Stefan Noesen

Zack Stortini

I would think the Oilers would have to eat half of Hemsky's salary and throw in a 1st round pick to even get their attention

DSF you are having a paranoid delusion if you think any team would include a first round draft pick for Daniel Winnik.

If you are constructing an argument vis-a-vis the Ducks' RW depth, leave the last four players off your list. Staubitz and Stortini are bad. Smyth-Pelly is not much better. Noesen is unproven. Even Etem, although I think he is decent, only scored ten points last season. Perry and Silfverberg are good players for sure.

This list kind of reminds me of your Minnesota Wild defense list. Lots of names but low quality.

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#48 Shifty203
July 10 2013, 08:57PM
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Didn't Gags file for arbitration last year too, but they got a deal done before hand? I'm pretty sure Gregor said last year not to worry, as the year before that, of the 20 that filed for arbitration, 1 actually made it to the meeting. The rest were resigned before hand.

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#49 Rocket
July 10 2013, 08:57PM
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@GVBlackhawk

I'd put Hemsky behind Perry on the second line ahead of Selane. Imagine Hemsky playing with Cogliano again! Hilarious!

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#50 Oiler Al
July 10 2013, 09:00PM
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Why not list Gagner at 6 ft. and 205 lbs. and then resign him.

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