LIES, DAMN LIES AND STATISTICS

Lowetide
July 13 2013 08:48AM

For the first time in several years, the Edmonton Oilers first round selection does not boast breathtaking boxcar numbers. Darnell Nurse is a defenseman with a wide range of skills, a 'two-way' type, a 'complete player' in scouting terms. He projects as a fearsome defender who can intimidate and run over the opposition--Oiler fans recognize that kind of talent--they've seen it for years from the opposition. Nurse also offers an underrated offensive side. In this area, he is an emerging talent.

OFFENSE

Nurse--uniquely among the top 3 CHL defenders chosen this season--played a lesser offensive role in his draft year. That may have impacted the perception of value although it didn't hurt his draft number. Nurse plays for a very good Sault Ste. Marie Greyhound team, with two defensemen ahead of him in the PP pecking order. Both Ryan Sproul (20-46-66 including 11 powerplay markers) and Colin Miller (20-35-55, 8 man advantage goals) played ahead of Nurse. Both are 20 now, so Nurse should slide into the #1 PP slot this coming season.

What kind of impact did playing on the second powerplay have on Nurse and his numbers? Here's the top 3 CHL defenders chosen in this year's draft and their numbers broken down by discipline.

EV/PP/PK NUMBERS FOR ELITE CHL DEFENDERS 12-13

All three of these defenders are quality puck moving options and Jones is well clear of the group. However, the Oilers have an underrated offensive option based on the boxcars because he's missing about a dozen points (or thereabouts) due only to his spot on the depth chart. At even strength, he is certainly capable and his 2 PK assists suggest that he does indeed play in all three disciplines.

DEFENSE

Nurse's defensive reputation is strong, very strong. The Oilers are getting a rock solid blueliner, a heavy hitter and a guy with a world class mean streak. Oiler fans are going to love him.

  • Brock Otten, OHL Prospects: At this point, Nurse is definitely my top prospect available from the OHL. All season long, I wrestled back and forth between Monahan and Nurse. But it’s clearly Nurse now IMO. He possesses so much potential at the next level. He could be a perennial Norris candidate IMO. The thing I like most about Nurse is how much he improved this season from the last. You need to look at that progression and think about just how good he could be, if he continues to tap into his athletic bloodlines (father was a CFL player), and continues to improve. He’s certainly a potential dynamo at both ends of the ice. His size (6’5, pushing 200lbs), makes him an asset in the defensive end. As does his skating ability. He’s incredibly difficult to get around and he’s physical enough to intimidate. As he gets stronger, I expect his physical game to become more consistent and more effective. He certainly has the mentality to be a bruiser. In the defensive end, he’s still learning a bit. He can get caught out of position at times, but with strong coaching I think this improves. Offensively, he went through the biggest transformation this season. He looked very poised and confident with the puck and took chances in leading and joining the rush. His skating ability makes him a threat offensively. He’s also got an absolute cannon of a shot that will only get better as he gets stronger. His play on the powerplay is improving. This year, with Ryan Sproul and Colin Miller on the point, Nurse was relegated to the 2nd unit. Next year, it’ll be his show to run and I expect very big things from him. When all is said and done, Nurse has the potential to be one of those defenseman who doesn’t really have any holes in his game. He’s the complete package and I think he’s the 2nd defenseman off the board after Seth Jones.

Music!

Also, the brilliant Eric T. posted an article that has Nurse facing the second toughest competition available in his 17-year old OHL season (it is here). Mad, mad arrows in his favor.

WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN?

Darnell Nurse has the potential to be a complete defenseman, a 25 minute a night blue who can impact the game in all three zones and all three disciplines. Even if he doesn't become a powerplay dynamo, there's so much defensive potential here it's likely he plays in the NHL well up the depth chart due to his defensive and puck moving skills. His passing is strong, his shot is a cannon, he's mobile, strong, tall and lean.

Darnell Nurse is a smart young man and the best defensive prospect drafted by the Oilers since Paul Coffey. No pressure, Darnell.

Also in the series:

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Lowetide has been one of the Oilogosphere's shining lights for over a century. You can check him out here at OilersNation and at lowetide.ca. He is also the host of Lowdown with Lowetide weekday mornings 10-noon on Team 1260.
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#51 Supernova
July 13 2013, 12:33PM
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a lg dubl dubl wrote:

Just a thought, can the Oil kings trade with the greyhounds so we can "track" Nurse better or cant because of the whl/ohl thing?

CHL doesn't allow for inter league trades.

The only way is for a player to be dropped from their team and passed through a waiver system and then one of the other leagues can pick them up kind of like a street free agent.

Happens rarely, and more typically when it does happen its with a last year of eligibility player.

It would be convenient for us fans but if you watched how much Coach Laxdal played Reinhardt on the PP, I think you would take your chances with playing time in the Seau.

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#52 Supernova
July 13 2013, 12:39PM
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Bucknuck wrote:

I'm with you. Managing expectations is the best way not to get all bent out of shape regarding a certain player (like Jason Arnott, for instance).

Agreed, expectations is the key to potential.

Horcoff was a Saint prior to signing a big contract, signed a big contract he was held far apart from Saint hood in Edmonton. Rightly or wrongly the expectations post contract was he was "expected" to be a #1 Center.

Same things happen with prospects.

When you get big defenders the things that usually stop them from being productive is mobility and hockey sense. It seems Nurse has these traits. So we should expect him to make the show, anything over a 3rd pairing D man is gravy in my opinion.

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#53 a lg dubl dubl
July 13 2013, 12:51PM
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Supernova wrote:

CHL doesn't allow for inter league trades.

The only way is for a player to be dropped from their team and passed through a waiver system and then one of the other leagues can pick them up kind of like a street free agent.

Happens rarely, and more typically when it does happen its with a last year of eligibility player.

It would be convenient for us fans but if you watched how much Coach Laxdal played Reinhardt on the PP, I think you would take your chances with playing time in the Seau.

Thanks, that's what I thought. Here's to hoping sportsnet shows a lot of the Greyhound games on the west channel lol.

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#55 Supernova
July 13 2013, 01:39PM
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Lowetide wrote:

There are transfers sometimes, but I think it's a case by case and has more to do with the athlete than any specific team wishing to make a trade.

Your buddy Guy Flaming would be good information on this, I am pretty sure the transfers also have something to do with the waiver system.

I think the heart of the rule is essentially that you need to explore all your options In your own league, after this transfers and waivers can happen but it is a rarity.

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#56 Citizen David
July 13 2013, 05:53PM
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Rog. wrote:

This is simply a repeat article that we have seen 2 or 3 times since this guy has been drafted. We get it, he has potential. Don't all draft picks? Lets just save the articles for real information instead of "lets pump our tires hockey news". Its almost mid-July. Take a break already.

-every sports fan in the city

Personally LT I thought this was a great article just like all your work. Keep pumping them out! I will be watching Nurse's career with great interest.

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#57 106 and 106
July 13 2013, 07:16PM
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@Rog.

No one is forcing you to read every article in mid-July, bro. Maybe you ought to take a break. Get some sun or talk to a female or something.

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#58 madjam
July 13 2013, 10:12PM
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DSF : Sounds like a lot of people offended if you won't stoke their egos and accept their views . I guess they just have a hard time with you not accepting their views and being frustrated not being able to change your mind/views . Impasse seems to drive them up a wall .

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#59 clemmer
July 14 2013, 01:39AM
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Rog. wrote:

This is simply a repeat article that we have seen 2 or 3 times since this guy has been drafted. We get it, he has potential. Don't all draft picks? Lets just save the articles for real information instead of "lets pump our tires hockey news". Its almost mid-July. Take a break already.

-every sports fan in the city

I for one agree what you are getting at. Although I do appreciate that these bloggers are trying to keep the hockey drive relevant in the sports media community, it is becoming a little redundant to hear year after year that everyone we draft, on paper, was a good pick. Even thought they have yet to play a pro game.

This is what makes the Canadian hockey media look ridiculous.

This is a great website for insider (I use that term loosely) information during to year or during the trade deadline. Other than that, these articles can be written by anyone with a heartbeat, the internet and a paycheck coming their way if they put something up.

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#60 The Soup Fascist
July 14 2013, 08:12AM
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Rog. wrote:

This is simply a repeat article that we have seen 2 or 3 times since this guy has been drafted. We get it, he has potential. Don't all draft picks? Lets just save the articles for real information instead of "lets pump our tires hockey news". Its almost mid-July. Take a break already.

-every sports fan in the city

I see the latest edition of "Trolling for Dummies" hit the shelves.......

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#61 BC BOY
July 14 2013, 01:26PM
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Can't wait to watch him at the world junoirs!

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