Sam Gagner: Getting Down To Brass Tacks

Jonathan Willis
July 20 2013 11:34AM

The negotiating positions of Sam Gagner and the Edmonton Oilers were made a little clearer on Saturday, as the asks of both parties at arbitration were published by prominent members of the media.

The News

What It Means

The obvious read here is “split the difference” – one year at $4.5 million. For the sake of argument, let’s assume that’s the fair value of Gagner’s final season as a restricted free agent.

If the Oilers want to lock up Gagner on a three to five year deal, the question then becomes ‘what is the value of Gagner as an unrestricted free agent’? What kind of deal will Gagner get next summer, as the youngest ever UFA and the salary cap rising? Valtteri Filppula got $5 million per year for five years with a no-move clause this summer in a season where the cap fell as sharply as it’s likely to at any point in the foreseeable future. Gagner, by the way, has outscored Filppula on average over the last five seasons, is six years younger, and nearly doubled the latter’s point production this season.

I think it’s reasonable to imagine Gagner getting $6 million per season from a team desperate for a scoring NHL centre, and perhaps even more. An estimate of $5.5 million per year on a long-term deal is probably a conservative starting point.

What would that look like?

  • Three-year deal. One year at $4.5 million, two at $5.5 million = $5.17 million cap hit
  • Four-year deal. One year at $4.5 million, three at $5.5 million = $5.25 million cap hit
  • Five-year deal. One year at $4.5 million, four at $5.5 million = $5.30 million cap hit

Yesterday, Robin Brownlee suggested that a five-year deal was going to come at a minimum price of $25 million. I think he’s right – further, I suspect that if the Oilers could get Gagner signed to that deal they’d take it.

But!?!?

He isn’t worth that, he’s done nothing to show he’s worth that kind of money. Say it with me: a player is worth whatever the market will pay him. In the NHL system, a limited number of players every year become unrestricted free agents. There’s always more need for high-level unrestricted free agents then there is supply, which drives the price up on those players. Gagner might have been the top UFA centre on the market if he’d been eligible this summer; he’ll be there or close to it next year too. He’s going to get paid.

He’s not worth what Taylor Hall or Jordan Eberle is worth. Is Sam Gagner a better player than Taylor Hall? Of course not. But that’s not the question. When Hall signed his seven-year extension, the Oilers bought four years of restricted free agency and three years of unrestricted free agency. Let’s imagine Gagner’s contract, using the numbers above, with those years:

  • Seven-year deal. Four years at $4.5 million, three at $5.5 million = $4.93 million cap hit

Suddenly, that seems pretty reasonable. It works in reverse, too – Taylor Hall isn’t getting a $6 million cap hit if he’s one year away from unrestricted free agency. Corey Perry got $8.625 million from the Ducks with a no-move clause, and while he has a more established track record which of those two players is the better bet to outperform the other over the next eight years? Personally, I’d be in Hall’s corner. This is why teams love young talent – because of the RFA years, it’s cheaper to buy than old talent.

He signed for $3.2 million a year ago! Exactly. If the Oilers had pushed hard for a long-term deal a year ago, they probably would have got one with a reasonable cap hit. Instead, that wasn't a priority for the team, likely because they weren't comfortable making that kind of commitment. It's one of the myriad reasons why it's a good thing for the team that Steve Tambellini isn't running it any more. The one-year signing a year ago was a bad decision when it was made, and the cost of that decision is coming due now.

The Oilers can’t afford to pay him what he wants. I think there’s a case to be made they can, but I have some time for this argument. The Oilers need a second line centre; if they can get one via trade or free agency for less money (or a player who is a better fit for the role) than absolutely they should consider that. For both parties, it’s about making the best decision – for Gagner, getting the best contract he can, for the Oilers finding the best balance between fit and cost in the second line pivot position. My view is that I’d be comfortable signing Gagner at five million per season over five years, but that I’d be calling Grabovski’s agent just in case.

Recently around the Nation Network

Depressed by the Gagner negotiations? Here's a case for Matt Stajan as Calgary's first-line centre:

Matty Franchise, as I’ve outlined, is basically the best offensive center on the Flames, barring poor contract management. This is hilarious, given his recent pro-rated point totals of 33, 23, and 43. He’s been outright buried by coaches and vilified by fans writers. Stajan is basically the epitome and the greatest legacy of the Sutter era. I can’t help but think I’d giggle every time I see Stajan on the ice with Baertschi, Cammalleri and/or Glencross.

Click the link to read more, or alternately, feel free check out some of my other pieces here:

74b7cedc5d8bfbe88cf071309e98d2c3
Jonathan Willis is a freelance writer. He currently works for Oilers Nation, the Edmonton Journal and Bleacher Report. He's co-written three books and worked for myriad websites, including Grantland, ESPN, The Score, and Hockey Prospectus. He was previously the founder and managing editor of Copper & Blue.
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#201 Butters
July 20 2013, 11:36PM
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@DSF Sedin gone next year Kesler better than Gags I agree but injured more Horvat has not played a single NHL game Gaunce see above

Future looks bright there...

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#202 Bigfan
July 20 2013, 11:39PM
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toprightcorner wrote:

100% agree but I am guessing it will fall on deaf ears. Supply and demand create value and the supply is low and the demand is high so Gagner will definitely get overpaid when comparing to many players who are better and that's just a fact whether you like it or not.

Personally, I think MacT would be better served saving some of that money for Nuge, Yak and Schultz as Gagners skills and a 2C are more easily replaceable. Gagner in a package should be able to get a top pairing dman or a high quality bottom 6 centre and winger in return.

Sign Grabovski for under $4 mill as a 2C and the overall team will be better. Gagner definitely offers more than Grabovski in that position but a top pairing dman or greatly improved bottom 6 with Grabovski is much better than just Gagner.

Gagner, Petry, plus could get you a return of Yandle, Vermette and Moss or Tyutin and Dubinsky

I just think MacT can get better value out of Gagner trading him instead of signing him at what it will take to get it done.

Tambo really screwed up last year on a 1 year deal, could probably had him at $3.75 for 5 years.

Supply and Demand do NOT create value; Supply and Demand influence price; price and value are not the same thing - Adam Smith and Karl Marx are both rolling over in their graves! A hockey player gets paid $10 million per year and a fireman gets paid $50k per year, so the hockey player gets a higher price, but it may be that the fireman adds more value. People posting here are getting price and value confused - some are talking about one and some are talking about the other.

Further, NHL salary negotiations are a long way from perfect markets. They are much closer to auctions; for RFA not quite so much maybe, but for UFA definitely. In theory ... with auction-type markets ... the invertment price for the item being exchanged is equal to the second-highest bid. The highest bidder - the winner - has to pay an amount above the second-highest bid to win and could ... in theory ... sell the item to the second-highest bidder for the second-highest bid price. So, the winner always 'overpays'. When the information available to the bidders is good - like everyone knows everyone elses bid, as in a real auction - then the winner's overpay can be small. When the available information is bad - like in NHL contract negotiations - then the winner's overpay is likely to be much greater.

What does this mean regarding the Oil and Samwise; if the Oil want to keep Samwise past RFA, then they are going to have to overpay him what he thinks any other team would pay him. Things like not moving and playing on a winning team and the results of other analogous negotiations (other auctions) and other such things do complicate this some. But they do not change the point that the Oil will have to overpay to keep Samwise and that it is about his price not his value.

All that being said: my concern is that a Samwise deal with the Oil may set a precident that makes the deals for Yak and RNH and Schultz much more expensive, such that these more key pieces cannot be kept. I think it would be better to let Samwise go rather than pay the overpay to keep him and in this way help keep down the prices for the others (hopefully).

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#204 Bicepus Maximus - Huge fan boy!
July 21 2013, 12:58AM
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Bogz wrote:

Save up your months pay and take the girl out for once. Take a look for yourself.

I can't say what I really mean cause the mods on this site suck a hind one lately but, isn't Bogz the name of that f****t f*** h*** rapist in Shawshank Redemption that ends up eating through a straw for the rest of his life?

6' 2" and 210 pounds of straight take a... GET OFF YOUR PHONE AND BUS TABLE 22 BEFORE YOU'RE RIDING DISHWASHER FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK... girl out of for once!

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#205 MKE
July 21 2013, 01:01AM
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@Jonathan Willis

DSF has never let reason stop him before. I think we just expect the insane comments and comparing apples to motorbikes.

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#206 Dangilitis
July 21 2013, 01:17AM
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Next up, is Connor McJesus. wrote:

We all post things here that we as fans believe to be accurate/true. They're called passionate opinions and are usually best taken with a grain of salt. I won't get in your way at tearing at his flesh here if you need. I just see his opinions as though they are coming from a long time disappointed Oilers fan. If you look at his opinions in a similar context, they actually make sense. He's seen the best of times, and the worst of times. I'm not going to get in the way of him expressing his opinion.

I feel fortunate that we have an open minded place to come to and express our opinions and not have then screened by someone pushing an agenda. Maybe those who are old enough to have seen the glory days are damned to disappointment as punishment.

Are you implying that I have an agenda? I am asking DSF to back up his comments. He continues to ignore this challenge. So what am I to believe? That he is a passionate fan, or that he passionately wants to disagree with individuals on threads of evidence that follow logic, but doesn't have the balls to follow through with his "passionate" but ignorant assertions. He is dragging Gagner's name through the mud, like he has done to many others in the organization. I am not a supporter of what has transpired in many ways, but he doesn't know f-all about Gagner the person or the hockey player.

You ironically are optimistically defending someone who you think is a pessimist. You are also accusing me at tearing the flesh of someone who does this without courtesy to others and snubs his nose at both the MSM and the "advanced stats guys" - seriously, I would love to hear his discertation about how his formula seems to supercede both of these. I view things differently. Look up the definition of oppositional defiant disorder and you'll see what I mean.

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#207 RJ
July 21 2013, 01:58AM
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I'd love to be Sam's agent. He's going to get paid. As a fan, it would be nice to see Sam make some decisions based on what's best for his team's cap; like we've seen in Pittsburgh or in Vancouver where players have taken less than their max in an effort to build a solid team.

But that's not likely to happen. If it were going to happen, it would have happened already.

So then the question becomes how much is Sam worth? And I find that such an interesting question. The stars have aligned perfectly for Sam: a new coach who's promising more minutes to top 6 players. A #1C who's going to draw all the tough defensive matchups. A #3C who's going to draw all the tough faceoffs and defensive zone starts. Two solid linemates in Yak & Perron. It's not hard to see he could have a career year, and he scored at 0.79 ppg last season.

I just wonder how badly Sam would slump if he left the perfect situation for him. He'd have to play tougher minutes elsewhere. He'd draw tougher assignments elsewhere. His linemates won't be as elite as Yak & Perron. He might get stuck in a very defensive-minded system like we see elsewhere. Good luck sam.

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#208 madjam
July 21 2013, 06:03AM
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Every action in a salary cap era often has an equal and opposite reaction . Every overpay results in seeking lesser talents in another area than would be desirable . Several , and you are crippled chasing less talent than is desirable in other areas on team . We have a questionable imbalance in that regard already , adding to it just makes for more holes not filled properly - more weak links .

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#209 fig pucker
July 21 2013, 06:27AM
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there are a couple of points that need to be made so this conversation can be put in perspective, 1) we have almost no depth at centre in this organization. 2) hall is not a natural centre, because he played the position in his earlier career dosen't mean he can do it well at the nhl level. 3) please, grabovski is not an option. skill aside, he's got a terrible attitude and no work ethic, there's a reason no one has made him an offer yet in the nhl. 4) market value is something you can expect to pay if you have playoff team or if your a desirable place for players to live, in the players eyes edmonton is neither. the bottom line low supply, high demand, no options or replacment personal = overpay. once we're in the playoffs and edmonton becoms a more desirable location for players = options then we can have a serious discussion about paying market value. we can't worry about what chicago or boston or anyone else would pay for gags, we don't have their options.

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#210 Romulus' Apotheosis
July 21 2013, 06:49AM
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Jonathan Willis wrote:

Of course, Kesler signed that deal three and a half years ago, with the salary cap at 56.8 million.

Chris Stewart's deal was for two RFA years. If the Oilers want to buy RFA years from Gagner, they can probably do that for around the same price as Stewart got.

So, while both are better value for money, you're grabbing unlike comparisons. Teams pay more for UFA years than RFA years. Teams pay more when the salary cap is high than they do when it's low.

But hey, don't let that get in your way.

Two kinds of ignorant. Blissfully and willfully.

DSF is the latter. He's trying to rile up the former.

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#211 non descript
July 21 2013, 07:01AM
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trade this player for a bigger, more complete, cheaper two way center. doesnt matter how much offense he brings, as long as hes not a play killer. yakupov and perron can take care of the scoring on that line. need to trim down the 5 plus million contracts eventually, might as well start now. of course, this would depend on whether there is even much of a market for a one dimensional, small, slow center who cant win a faceoff or play defence after 400 plus nhl games.

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#212 a lg dubl dubl
July 21 2013, 08:42AM
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Please someone enlighten me on Grabovski, how is he better overall than Gagner?

Their goals and assists are pretty much par with each other, sure Gagner's +/- is worse than M.Gs at -48 to -7(career) but I argue that Gagner has been on a way worse team than Grabovski. Oh and M.G is 5'11 185 to Gagner at 5'11 199.

After hearing M.G rsnt after being bought out im not sure Id want him on the Oilers, what happens if Eakins puts him on the 3rd line because hes in a slump like last year? Hellz no! Gagner is a team first player and has never ripped the what is it 5 different coaches since he came into the league 6 years ago.

I hope Eakins isn't a blender type coach like Renney and Kreuger were, I see good things on that 2nd line for Gagner playing with Perron and Yakcity.

Yes Gagner isn't worth 5.5 right now but IMO hes worth just under 5mil, and if he signs to that, his contrsct might just be a bargin in a couple years.

Anybody know what Grabovski is asking for?

EDIT: And really give me one team that will trade their 6'2 200+lbs center that puts up the same # of points that Gagner does.

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#213 rickithebear
July 21 2013, 08:55AM
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We need Centers. MacT has made it clear. He thinks gagner is a winger.

Hall 6M Eberle 6M Perron 3.8M Yakupov3.775M Hemsky 5.0M Gagner ?????????

10M for Gagner-XXX-Hemsky

Ouch!

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#214 admiralmark
July 21 2013, 09:05AM
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madjam wrote:

Every action in a salary cap era often has an equal and opposite reaction . Every overpay results in seeking lesser talents in another area than would be desirable . Several , and you are crippled chasing less talent than is desirable in other areas on team . We have a questionable imbalance in that regard already , adding to it just makes for more holes not filled properly - more weak links .

This is exactly it. This team needs to get in the habit of getting value contracts 4 contracts at .5 Million too much can equal a $4 Million player at the trade deadline just for example. If Gagner wants to squeeze every last possible cent out of a deal... Then he needs to be traded. He does not bring $5.5 Million dollars of play to the table... And paying him that much means we cant fill his wing with a better defensive player either. It doesnt matter that he can get $6 million as a UFA.. What matters is can you build a Cup Contender paying Gagner in $5+ Million hes asking. If he was a more complete player i.e. wins face-offs, defensive capable, brings toughness... none of which he does very well.. But if he did any of those even a little better then $5- $5.5 Mill/ year would make sense... Knowing what he actually does bring is worth $4.5 mill/per.

The statement of he's worth what the market holds is a moronic statement i hear a lot also. There's always at least 1 GM out there that will pay 20% more then anyone else.. That has eff all to do with what he's worth when your a GM trying to build a Cup contender in a Cap system league.

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#215 15w40
July 21 2013, 09:07AM
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@a lg dubl dubl

I think the general feeling is that if the Oilers could trade Gagner for a very usable asset to plug another hole and sign Grabovski for a more friendly number that they really aren't giving up much between the two.

Unfortunately, with the timing of this contract standoff, Gagner's trade value is perceived to have diminished a great deal. I believe this is accurate.

Hindsight being 20/20, that 1 year deal that was done by the previous GM will prove to be a horrible gamble. A 3 year deal with a cap hit near 4.1 or slightly higher would have been much more prudent.

One could argue that other than accumulating #1 picks, there was little to nothing done successfully to plug other holes and now in his wake one could argue that due to the miscalculation on Gagner that once a blue chip asset will now walk for a marginal to no return whatsoever.

I would say the summer of Steve lives on but I honestly don't think you can pin it all on him. There is the president and the pro scouting staff that are also involved in how the last couple of years have gone and a lot of those other personnel pre-date Tambellini.

This Gagner thing has the potential to de-rail things for sure. MacTavish is like a weasel caught in a fox hole on this.

Why would Gagner take a discount to stay in a place that has shown it doesn't value him the way he sees himself. He has been through what 5 coaches in 6 years with different systems multiple times - not a real recipe for success.

Whether his (his agent) perceived self value is inflated or not doesn't matter relative to the market place. Gagner may be looking at it like, "hey, I've got one more year in this circus and if they want me to stay they are going to pay full value".

As has been shown time and again, players will take less to play elsewhere and that maybe just what he does next year. Go to what he feels is a legitimate contender with an immediate future in the top 6 team in the league and take a long term small percentage haircut. That doesn't happen in Edmonton.

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#216 rob
July 21 2013, 09:22AM
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how does it work with a trade,can they do so while in arbitration or have to wait for a settlement?if they walk away do they get anything,hate to say it but the ball is in sammys court will be neat to see what mact does,I have faith he pulls a rabbit out of his hat on this one

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#217 Tim in Kelowna
July 21 2013, 09:29AM
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I'm a huge Gagner fan. He plays with a ton of passion and he won't back down from a fight. Like Bronwlee said, those are qualities that MacT covets. Having said that, if we can't get him signed at 5mx5y then it would be worth exploring a deal for a bigger centre. I would love to see Brian Boyle in Oilers silks, myself.

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#218 admiralmark
July 21 2013, 09:38AM
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The more I look at this the more it makes sense to take the arbitrators decision. If he would be willing to take a $4.5 mill/year deal x 4-5 years then sign him. If its as reported that he wants a $5.5 mill/year deal then take the arbitration decision. It will likely fall around 4.75 Mill. Assess what you have in him in the first 2-3 months. Based on that try to negotiate a longer term deal. If the impasse remains then move him at the trade deadline.

I actually like this player a great deal and if we had bigger wingers that were more defensively gifted like say Boston then he would fit in. Problem is our wingers are set in the top 6 and we just dont have the size to compete with the big/tough teams in the Pacific division. It's too bad but I think this things heading towards him being traded. However, signing him to a $5.5 million/per deal is an even worse option.

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#219 a lg dubl dubl
July 21 2013, 09:51AM
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15w40 wrote:

I think the general feeling is that if the Oilers could trade Gagner for a very usable asset to plug another hole and sign Grabovski for a more friendly number that they really aren't giving up much between the two.

Unfortunately, with the timing of this contract standoff, Gagner's trade value is perceived to have diminished a great deal. I believe this is accurate.

Hindsight being 20/20, that 1 year deal that was done by the previous GM will prove to be a horrible gamble. A 3 year deal with a cap hit near 4.1 or slightly higher would have been much more prudent.

One could argue that other than accumulating #1 picks, there was little to nothing done successfully to plug other holes and now in his wake one could argue that due to the miscalculation on Gagner that once a blue chip asset will now walk for a marginal to no return whatsoever.

I would say the summer of Steve lives on but I honestly don't think you can pin it all on him. There is the president and the pro scouting staff that are also involved in how the last couple of years have gone and a lot of those other personnel pre-date Tambellini.

This Gagner thing has the potential to de-rail things for sure. MacTavish is like a weasel caught in a fox hole on this.

Why would Gagner take a discount to stay in a place that has shown it doesn't value him the way he sees himself. He has been through what 5 coaches in 6 years with different systems multiple times - not a real recipe for success.

Whether his (his agent) perceived self value is inflated or not doesn't matter relative to the market place. Gagner may be looking at it like, "hey, I've got one more year in this circus and if they want me to stay they are going to pay full value".

As has been shown time and again, players will take less to play elsewhere and that maybe just what he does next year. Go to what he feels is a legitimate contender with an immediate future in the top 6 team in the league and take a long term small percentage haircut. That doesn't happen in Edmonton.

The only way I sign Grabovski is if he only wants 3-4mil otherwise Id take Gagner anyday.

I do agree that if Gagner chooses to stand on the 5.5 he wants (ala Smyth) and the Oilers do sign him to that because there isn't much else out there that can get 50-60 points it will hinder the team over the next couple years capwise.

Even though ST "screwed" the team with that 1 year deal, MacT needs to sell Gagner on "if you take 1-1.5 less than what your asking, we can use that cash to sign other players in areas we lack skill in to make us a legit contender"

I guess right now it all depends on how good of a salesman MacT is and how big Sams ego is.

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#220 madjam
July 21 2013, 10:05AM
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Compulsory arbitration is the least desirable way to settle a dispute or impasse . It almost always ends up being a lose - lose proposition satisfying neither party. Player does not get what they want , and nor does management . As Brian Burke alluded to in his arbitration mock seminar , arbitration in todays cap market is close to useless for both parties . There might be the odd exception but very few .

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#221 shea78
July 21 2013, 10:09AM
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You don't think the Oil tried to get a replacement for Gags at the draft? I guarantee you that if the Oil could have moved up and drafted Barkov they would be following through on the hearing and taking the one year deal that the arbitrator awards. Probably 4-4.5.Then at the deadline, they could trade Gags for help and move Barkov into the second/first line role. That was the guy we needed. All this talk of Couturier is hilarious. The guy is a third line center all day long. Nothing more.

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#222 Next up, is Connor McJesus.
July 21 2013, 10:13AM
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Dangilitis wrote:

Are you implying that I have an agenda? I am asking DSF to back up his comments. He continues to ignore this challenge. So what am I to believe? That he is a passionate fan, or that he passionately wants to disagree with individuals on threads of evidence that follow logic, but doesn't have the balls to follow through with his "passionate" but ignorant assertions. He is dragging Gagner's name through the mud, like he has done to many others in the organization. I am not a supporter of what has transpired in many ways, but he doesn't know f-all about Gagner the person or the hockey player.

You ironically are optimistically defending someone who you think is a pessimist. You are also accusing me at tearing the flesh of someone who does this without courtesy to others and snubs his nose at both the MSM and the "advanced stats guys" - seriously, I would love to hear his discertation about how his formula seems to supercede both of these. I view things differently. Look up the definition of oppositional defiant disorder and you'll see what I mean.

Not at all, I tend to agree with his view of these forensic statistical categories. They can often be manipulated to conform with ones argument. While I do admit he'll fall back on these numbers when it strengthens his argument at times.

It's easy to become a pessimist after what this team has put us through in recent yrs, what's wrong with second guessing the people who put us in this mess in the first place?

This ODD you spoke of, is that something the mathletes over at DarkHorse analytics created? What is fact, or what is fiction here on Oilersnation, it's all gray area. The authors of these articles go to great lengths to back there arguments up with facts, but the posters/contributors here are mostly trying to present their own personal opinions as fact.

We've all heard for yrs now about the holes in Sam Gagners game. Maybe if even your so called imperfect DSF can tear him down so quickly, we should admit, having 89 as our second line center might not be the best option. I firmly believe the only reason he's an Oiler today is because MacTavish hasn't found a way to get something tangible for him in return. This potential deal for 89, screams of Horcoff/Hemsky all over again.

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#223 a lg dubl dubl
July 21 2013, 10:29AM
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shea78 wrote:

You don't think the Oil tried to get a replacement for Gags at the draft? I guarantee you that if the Oil could have moved up and drafted Barkov they would be following through on the hearing and taking the one year deal that the arbitrator awards. Probably 4-4.5.Then at the deadline, they could trade Gags for help and move Barkov into the second/first line role. That was the guy we needed. All this talk of Couturier is hilarious. The guy is a third line center all day long. Nothing more.

Yes a rookie 2nd line center is exactly what the team needed to get into the playoffs

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#224 madjam
July 21 2013, 10:48AM
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Quicksilver : Well put . Now , how difficult would it be to find another Gm (maybe even Nill again ) that wants to rid themselves of a contract and player avoiding buyout , and also give us a 7th rounder in 2015 in return for a very useable top six forward like Hemsky ? With some of the overpays we are paying is it any wonder we ate going back to low contract amounts for personnel like Grebs ?

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#225 shea78
July 21 2013, 11:02AM
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a lg dubl dubl wrote:

Yes a rookie 2nd line center is exactly what the team needed to get into the playoffs

You are aware that all players in the league were once rookies right? Some of these players actually have good rookie seasons.

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#226 Jarrett
July 21 2013, 01:27PM
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Is there a deal to be had with Florida? I would honestly take back Shawn Matthias, at $900,000/yr. 6'4", 225lbs...not a huge scorer yet, but could up it to 20/30 playing with |Perron and Yakupov. Plus, needless to say, he's a bigger body to follow up RNH with. Sam's dad also played in Florida, so maybe it might work...

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#227 toprightcorner
July 21 2013, 01:40PM
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Bigfan wrote:

Supply and Demand do NOT create value; Supply and Demand influence price; price and value are not the same thing - Adam Smith and Karl Marx are both rolling over in their graves! A hockey player gets paid $10 million per year and a fireman gets paid $50k per year, so the hockey player gets a higher price, but it may be that the fireman adds more value. People posting here are getting price and value confused - some are talking about one and some are talking about the other.

Further, NHL salary negotiations are a long way from perfect markets. They are much closer to auctions; for RFA not quite so much maybe, but for UFA definitely. In theory ... with auction-type markets ... the invertment price for the item being exchanged is equal to the second-highest bid. The highest bidder - the winner - has to pay an amount above the second-highest bid to win and could ... in theory ... sell the item to the second-highest bidder for the second-highest bid price. So, the winner always 'overpays'. When the information available to the bidders is good - like everyone knows everyone elses bid, as in a real auction - then the winner's overpay can be small. When the available information is bad - like in NHL contract negotiations - then the winner's overpay is likely to be much greater.

What does this mean regarding the Oil and Samwise; if the Oil want to keep Samwise past RFA, then they are going to have to overpay him what he thinks any other team would pay him. Things like not moving and playing on a winning team and the results of other analogous negotiations (other auctions) and other such things do complicate this some. But they do not change the point that the Oil will have to overpay to keep Samwise and that it is about his price not his value.

All that being said: my concern is that a Samwise deal with the Oil may set a precident that makes the deals for Yak and RNH and Schultz much more expensive, such that these more key pieces cannot be kept. I think it would be better to let Samwise go rather than pay the overpay to keep him and in this way help keep down the prices for the others (hopefully).

Definition of Value

NOUN 1. An amount, as of goods, services, or money, considered to be a fair and suitable equivalent for something else 2. Worth in usefulness or importance to the possessor; utility or merit

VERB 1. To determine or estimate the worth or value of; appraise. 2. To regard highly; esteem. See Synonyms at appreciate. 3. To rate according to relative estimate of worth or desirability

Value is determined by supply and demand because people will pay the price according to what they feel that item is worth, which is value.

For this topic, value is based on a UFA in the NHL and the GM will pay what they feel the worth, usefulness or importance to the team, hence the players value to the team. Sure, they may over value that player but it is still their value.

Which hockey card has more value, Gretzky rookie card or a Sidney Crosby rookie card? Supply and demand dictate the price, therefore that is the value if someone is willing to pay that price.

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#228 toprightcorner
July 21 2013, 01:52PM
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madjam wrote:

Compulsory arbitration is the least desirable way to settle a dispute or impasse . It almost always ends up being a lose - lose proposition satisfying neither party. Player does not get what they want , and nor does management . As Brian Burke alluded to in his arbitration mock seminar , arbitration in todays cap market is close to useless for both parties . There might be the odd exception but very few .

That is not the main reason why arbitration is undesirable. The reason is that each side has to prove why their offer is more accurate to the worth of the player. That means that the team will say anything to devalue that player which shows the player they are not appreciated by the team for what they bring.

What player would stay with a team that basically called out all of your weaknesses? They will most likely leave the first chance they get.

If Gagner's case actually goes to arbitration, the chances of him staying long term are slim to none.

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#229 Cowbell_Feva
July 21 2013, 09:01PM
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Yes Quicksilver...I'm very worried about my wife spending time with you, you know seeing as you spend most of your waking moments talking about f&cking chuck steaks on an Internet blogging site. Oh yah, the site with a heavy emphasis on hockey. I've cooked before....your not the first person to cook food all by yourself. I'm just not cheap enough or poor enough to buy a $2 steak.....maybe that's why your still single living in your moms basement.

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#230 Lemming
July 21 2013, 10:50PM
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I don't understand how there is such vitriol direct at Quicksilver...the guy made a suggestion on how to cook a steak, he didn't suggest we re-try the holocaust or something.

Due to slow news on the Canucks front, I've decided to weigh in on Ganger for you from the perspective of a Canucks fan. Specifically, the fact that there is very little to weigh in on with regards to Gagner.

I remember a few years ago when he made the odd headline for making the Oilers at a young age, but honestly, whenever I see the Canucks/Oilers play, the guy is barely visible. I didn't even know he had a better year this year before I came here and read this. I'd say you can do better, but that would probably be a lie.

From the sounds of the comments it sounds like Tambs put you between a rock and a hard place with Ganger. He's probably not that bad, but like I said, he does not fall into the stand-out category of players on the Oilers. If I were GM (and we should all probably be thankful I'm not), I wouldn't pay him more than 5/per, and that would be extremely begrudgingly paid.

I'm interested to see when the Oilers finally get decent again, it's so hard to get a read on the team. It seems like there are good pieces, but nothing comes together. Always a good game when they play the Canucks though!

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#231 Next up, is Connor McJesus.
July 22 2013, 12:49AM
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@Cowbell_Feva

I don't believe for one moment that you found someone dumber than yourself, to say yes.

That's a marriage certificate i'd like to see. Did your signature just consist of an X?

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