FINDING THE NUMBER

Lowetide
July 21 2013 09:52AM

Making a case for Sam Gagner at $5M a year isn't hard to do, but for the Oilers it's more difficult to find a way to include him in their future at that number. Well beyond $5M? Almost impossible.

GAGNER HAS REAL VALUE TO EDMONTON

The case for Gagner making 5 large has been made ably at ON in recent days:

  • Robin Brownlee: "I don't think it's a stretch to believe that Gagner is a reasonable buy at $1 million less a season than Hall and Eberle just signed for. That means $5 million a season.Ka-ching. Pay the man."
  • Jonathan Willis: "My view is that I’d be comfortable signing Gagner at five million per season over five years, but that I’d be calling Grabovski’s agent just in case."

I'd also draw your attention to Tyler Dellow's summary of the situation (here) and his conclusion "deferring this issue by letting the arbitrator deal with it doesn’t seem likely to me to produce a better result. Make a longer term bet on him now seems like a reasonably smart bet to make to me."

BRIDGING THE GAP

The Oilers have five 'impact' players who could reasonably be regarded as having superior futures to Gagner: they are Taylor Hall, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Nail Yakupov, Jordan Eberle and Justin Schultz. Hall and Eberle are signed long term for $6M per year, and that's probably the organizational 'outer marker' for contracts.

Assuming that the club signs Nuge and J Scultz long term for $5M+ (or near) in the next 12 months, and have Gagner come in around $5M as well, the Oilers will be looking at about $27-29M for their five best players when the Yakupov contract comes up for review. This assumes the Nuge is willing to sign for less than $6M, and that my friends is a large assumption.

The cap will go up next year, and if it hits $70M plus then the pressures will be eased; however, signing Sam Gagner long term with a no trade mean Craig MacTavish could box himself in if:

  • he signs Gagner to a multi-year deal with a no trade clause for the free agent years
  • the cap goes up, but does not sky rocket
  • Gagner performs below his established level

These are legit concerns, and things MacT must measure as he readies to sign Sam Gagner.

WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN?

I think the Oilers call in forensics on this, pore over the numbers, and deliver a long term contract shy of $5.25M per year. Sam Gagner has been consistent and is entering his prime. Buying an uptick in performance is a good bet.

We wait.

C2a6955161684b5e3189319acfa5ebe4
Lowetide has been one of the Oilogosphere's shining lights for over a century. You can check him out here at OilersNation and at lowetide.ca. He is also the host of Lowdown with Lowetide weekday mornings 10-noon on Team 1260.
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#51 Crackenbury
July 21 2013, 10:37AM
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What happens to Gagner's value if he wins his 1 year arbitration? There is no way the Oilers let him play out the season here and/or Gagner basically forces the Oilers to sign Grabovski to replace him. Gagner then ends up on the third line with diminished minutes and fewer points going into UFA status. I would think Gagner's best opportunity to sign long term for decent dollars is right now with the Oilers. The risk of injury or a poor season stat-wise based on a reduced role should ensure he signs before his hearing. If he doesn't and the Oilers sign Grabovski shortly thereafter, Gagner should shop for a new agent.

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#52 kgo
July 21 2013, 10:38AM
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@Mark-LW

If Gagner's Camp is realistically expecting say 5.25 and the Oil wont go above say 4.0 and the arbitration comes in at 3.9 I think this helps them get an extension done. Gagner swung for the fences, struck out and signs for 4.5 over 5

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#53 Spydyr
July 21 2013, 10:39AM
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Naky wrote:

@Spydyr

Too many similar, younger, and better players in our system? Whoa. When did we get all these awesome centers? Last time I checked our centers basically consisted of a 19 year old RNH, a 23 year old Gagner, a 29 year old Gordon, and a 22 year old Lander. Gonna go out on a limb and say that Gordon and Lander aren't better offensively than Sam sooo... where they at?

Even his GM does not consider him a center. He is a winger playing center, poorly.

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#54 Spydyr
July 21 2013, 10:40AM
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Mark-LW wrote:

In what world is $5 million/year first line centre money?

I said he is a second line player asking first line money. Where did I say he was a first line center? He is not.

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#55 Saytalk
July 21 2013, 10:42AM
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This is about more than just dollars and term. The presence of a NMC/NTC in the contract is probably a sticking point.

Corsi should also be in the discussion, but I think most fans don't look past the boxcars no matter how bad a player's defense is.

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#56 Mark-LW
July 21 2013, 10:49AM
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@Spydyr

Take a quick look here: http://www.mc79hockey.com/?p=6233

Check out Sam's company.

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#57 Romulus' Apotheosis
July 21 2013, 10:52AM
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Lowetide wrote:

Gagner is a valuable part of the team, a stand up guy, has helped in recruiting other players and the GM praised him recently.

This is ONLY about contract number and term. He's one of the boys.

Fans often conflate these issues. It's a shame really.

Besides the whole narrative about players = bad character because they make too much money ignores the fact that players don't operate in a free market.

Hockey is one of the more regulated markets in existence. All the tools (ELC, RFA, Cap, etc.) are designed to limit the earning power of the players on the free market.

Fans often direct their frustration at players for "getting paid" when they hit UFA status and yet conveniently ignore the years those same players put in under market conditions radically unfavorable to them. Even under UFA status there are tools that artificially limit the earning power of players.

It is understandable that some form of resentment holds against those making enormous amounts of money, but that general affect is completely without context to evaluate the market in which value is assigned.

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#58 Spydyr
July 21 2013, 10:53AM
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Mark-LW wrote:

My point is that he is not asking first line money.

I looked up one team on cap geek. Just for fun I took the champs. This is what some of their top players will make next season:

Bergeron, Patrice $5,000,000 Marchand, Brad $4,500,000 Eriksson, Loui $4,250,000 Savard, Marc $4,027,143

So he is asking first line money.

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#59 Mr common sense
July 21 2013, 10:54AM
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I don't like this situation one bit, this guy is NOT elite in ANY regard; speed, shot, accuracy, physicality, passing, hitting, skill, face offs, defensive zone coverage, one on one ability, finesse, consistency, durability, ruggedness, highlight ability, hockey IQ, pp specialist, pk proficiency, shot blocking, shut diwn capability, NOTHING NOTHING NOTHING. The city and media has lost it's marbles. Put me in that arbitration, I'd rip him apart and convince the judge to give him 3M.

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#60 oldhippy
July 21 2013, 10:54AM
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Hayek wrote:

Seems expensive. In 5 years in the NHL, Gagner has not produced more points than in his rookie season. Now he is 2nd in the depth chart behind RNH. How much offensive production can be reasonably expected from Gagner get 2nd line ice time at EV and on the PP?

My question would be if Gagner signs a deal for $5M/season, is this a contract that is tradeable? Is it one in which you would have to eat salary to be traded?

I personally have a difficult time seeing that as being the case. I would assume people in Edmonton assess Gagner at a higher value than other GMs in the league.

First off, Gagner's numbers for the 2013 season extrapolate out to 65 points. His first year was 49 points. That puts him at 17th place among ALL centers this past season. His average totals for a full season works out to 51 points. This includes an 18 year old season.

He turns 24 at the start of this season. Centers tend to have their best years, starting around that age, or older.

Look at Henrik Sedin's numbers. Starting at age 20 until 24 his season totals were 29, 36, 39, and 42. The next season was the lock out and he came back after that, as a 25 year old and scored 75 points. I will further argue that Henrik had better line mates and spent more time on the first power play unit.

To give up on Gagner at this point is sheer lunacy. Even if he isn't our 2C going forward, he could still be a winger on the second line. At 5X$5M he would be a highly tradeable player. I doubt after 6 season of better than 40 points, his contract would look like Horcoff's. Hor coff had one good season and was on his way to another great season when he had the bad knee injury. That was when he was given the contract. He had no long track record that would match what Gagner has done, consistently.

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#61 Spydyr
July 21 2013, 10:57AM
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Craig1981 wrote:

Have you ever in all your years seen a player as polarized with the fanbase as Gagner?

Have you already forgotten Mr. Horcoff?

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#62 Mr common sense
July 21 2013, 11:00AM
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I don't like this situation one bit, this guy is NOT elite in ANY regard; speed, shot, accuracy, physicality, passing, hitting, skill, face offs, defensive zone coverage, one on one ability, finesse, consistency, durability, ruggedness, highlight ability, hockey IQ, pp specialist, pk proficiency, shot blocking, shut diwn capability, NOTHING NOTHING NOTHING. The city and media has lost it's marbles. Put me in that arbitration, I'd rip him apart and convince the judge to give him 3M.

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#63 Mr common sense
July 21 2013, 11:01AM
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I don't like this situation one bit, this guy is NOT elite in ANY regard; speed, shot, accuracy, physicality, passing, hitting, skill, face offs, defensive zone coverage, one on one ability, finesse, consistency, durability, ruggedness, highlight ability, hockey IQ, pp specialist, pk proficiency, shot blocking, shut diwn capability, NOTHING NOTHING NOTHING. The city and media has lost it's marbles. Put me in that arbitration, I'd rip him apart and convince the judge to give him 3M.

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#64 Death Metal Nightmare
July 21 2013, 11:02AM
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mistake signing at 5m+

NOT consistent. a third wheel on lines because he isnt good enough to generate offense without better linemates (aka he's a vulture. someone else does the killing - he picks the scraps). he's had pretty large droughts in MULTIPLE seasons. horrendous in the faceoff dot. pretty poor defensively.

sometimes i think the off-season just gives people amnesia and "on-paper" dreams WAY too hard.

a 5 million hit for 40-50 points ("Well he prorated" - he didnt do it. prorating means crap and you all know it.) from a player with a primary finesse skill set that is deficient in all the rest of his responsibilities as a center is poor judgement.

seal the fate of the "rebuild" Oilers to the early 2000's Ottawa Senators where they had a zillion high level talents on a team and did nothing with it.

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#65 Mark-LW
July 21 2013, 11:02AM
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Spydyr wrote:

I looked up one team on cap geek. Just for fun I took the champs. This is what some of their top players will make next season:

Bergeron, Patrice $5,000,000 Marchand, Brad $4,500,000 Eriksson, Loui $4,250,000 Savard, Marc $4,027,143

So he is asking first line money.

I can do that also:

Datsyuk - $6.7
Perry - $8.625
Getzlaf - $8.25
Kane - $6.3
Toews - $6.3
Sastny - $6.6
Kopitar - $6.8

I could have gone on longer but I got tired of clicking through.

Notice something there?

All those >6 million contracts are from a different CBA that allowed artificially lowering the cap number and THEY ARE STILL much higher than what Gagner is asking. If you want to see true first line pay under this CBA, look no further than Perry and Getzlaf. Neither are Crosby/Stamkos/Malkin like talents but check out that cap number. $5.5 will seem very small for a consistent scoring second line centre in three years.

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#66 Spydyr
July 21 2013, 11:08AM
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David S wrote:

The idea is what are first line C's going for THIS YEAR, RIGHT NOW, not what existing contracts for the position are at.

Once again Sam is not a second line center never mind a first line center. He is a second line winger playing center , poorly.

What I said is he is a second line PLAYER looking for first line money.

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#67 Sincethewhadays
July 21 2013, 11:12AM
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Just spit balling here. What if the solution MacT is contimplating is Arcabello in th 2c spot. If Gags gets the 1 year arbitrator dicision and Arcabello gets a decent look.... It would give us the extra C, plus a value contract for next season when we move Gags. That's assuming Aecabellos got an NHL game.

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#68 Mr common sense
July 21 2013, 11:20AM
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They're $hittie wrote:

accuracy? Gagner wins or finishes second every year at the oilers skill competition. Has only lost to Tom Gilbert

Finesse? Highlight ability? Gagners Shoot outs clearly have finesse. 8 point night!

PP Specialist? Lead the oilers in PP/60 by a wide margin

PK specialist? Lead the oilers in corsi rel and pk points last year. Was only on the ice for 3 goals against. Maybe not a specialist but one of the oilers best.

Hocky IQ? You have nothing to measure this but I think the majority of the hockey community disagrees with you.

Passing? Are you on crack, he is the best passer on the oilers. While Nuge's vision may make you believe nuge is better gagner is the more accurate passer.

He is an elite passer, he has elite finesse, and he is good to great at everything else I listed.

Put me in a room for arbitration with you. I will convince them to cut your hands off so you are not able to type something so stupid again.

Hi Sam Gagner, nice of you to join us here at Oilers Nation. Hope you're having a nice morning, looks like you are rehearsing your story for tomorrow. Very excited that your logic extends to what you wrote above, laughable that you think you are a better passer than Hemmer or Nuge and that your main argument for finesse is your one move in the shoot out and one 8 point game before and after which, you became once again what we know you to be.

Good luck bro but we ain't blind

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#69 BaldOldMan
July 21 2013, 11:21AM
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I'm having a hard time as a fan having a team pay a player 5million/yr for an avg. points/yr of 45-55, a faceoff % less than 50. We all complained with Hemsky > 5million and he produced > 60 points/yr. RNH has a low faceoff % maybe because of his shoulder (might have an impact on his strength). I could see him > 50% this year with a new shoulder. Is there anything wrong with Gagner's shoulder? The bench mark was set with Hall and Eberle with their 6million contracts. If you think he can produce at say 80% of the level of the top 2 then you should pay him 80%. Using 70 points as a mark based on Eberle's year, Gagner would have to produce at a level > 55 points, which I don't believe he has done, and 80% of 6 million is 4.8, not 5. We need to think about our team without using our heart. I think Gagner is a great teammate and he has awesome leadership, but not at 5million. I'm sorry to saw I'd rather see him traded now for a better return then if he heads to UFA next summer. I want great team regardless of the players. We have all become attached to him because of his history, but using our heart to pay > 5million just isn't a good business decision.

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#70 Spydyr
July 21 2013, 11:22AM
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Craig1981 wrote:

OMG, those contracts have as much merit as the fact that Chris Bosh makes 17.54 million next year.

You have one guy that hasn't played in the NHL for several years, and failed to mention another guy you listed actually cost 6.5million to sign this summer.

As stated the contracts are for next season. The guy you have listed actually cost 6.5 million to sign this summer. Yes, and when Sam leads his team to the Cup final as a first line player he will be worth that too.

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#71 WhattaMike
July 21 2013, 11:26AM
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I have read many responses here and thrown in a few myself in other articles about Sammy and...I feel he is not worth more than $5 mil per yr.

To me he also, he is not closer to Hall, Ebs, RNH or Yak as a future/present elite type player...but he is a good youngster who plays hard for this team. Yes sammy has talent and skill but he is at a stage lower than the above other named.

I believe it is the NMC or NTC part of the deal and the length of term that is causing a no signing deal right now. I gotta believe that MacT has listed $5 mil as the maximum when he compares sammy to what he has in Hall, Ebs, RNH and Yak.

I completely agree with JW (and also, others who say this...) that Gagner has to do much better at faceoffs, be better with two way play, and be way better with of the tough minutes at even strength.

However, I will be happy (without bitching)with Sam Gagner playing here as the 2nd line centre on a $5 mil per yr deal at 4 to 5 yrs...but....Only...if there is no inclusive NMC or NTC involved. That way the Oilers have an out to trade him if he does not ever improve, he is not doing what a top 2nd line centre must do, and/or when his trade asset value is even better than today.

If the arbitrator says $5.25 mil per yr or plus (1 yr deal), then I hope MacT is on the phone in a heartbeat looking to deal Sam in a package. Oh yeah, we still need another centre pretty quick and Steckel or Zack Smith for 4th line duty makes a whole lots of sense.

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#72 Gret99zky
July 21 2013, 11:35AM
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It's easy.

Sign Gagner longterm for 5M+.

Trade Eberle.

If MacT wants Gags at that price hit he's got to let one of the other kids go.

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#73 Mr common sense
July 21 2013, 11:39AM
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They're $hittie wrote:

Whats laughable is your blog name, you don't seem to have any.

I did not say Gagner was a better passer, I said he was a more accurate passer. Nuge's vision makes him the better passer doesnt mean he is as accurate.

If you werent blind you would have seen that the night after the 8 point game he put up another 3 points in consecutive goals for the oilers, so I dont know what type of player you are refering to becoming after the game.

The oilers goalies are on record saying Gagner has the most accurate shot.

Ask Yakupov who the best passer on the team is.

Eberle has had one really good season, and the rest have been on par with Gagners seasons, in which he played an easier position and with better offensive players. Why is he worth 6M dollars. Are you paying him based on what he did in the WJC as a 19 year old.

Doesn't surprise me Sam that overpaid guys like you (seems like you don't have elite imagination either, nice try with the name) don't like common sense from the regular Joe like me, we're fine with that.

You are NOT elite, the fact that you keep rebutting with comparisons against your 29th place teammates to highlight your point works in our favour for tomorrow. You are like your dad, nice guy, average player, forgotten within minutes once retired. Not elite.

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#74 They're $hittie
July 21 2013, 11:41AM
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@Mr common sense

nice that you have nothing to back up your arguments other than calling my him

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#75 Mr common sense
July 21 2013, 11:47AM
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Craig1981 wrote:

You are comparing a somewhat similar player, with a similar age, with a recently signed contract! You're going against the grain here

Matt Duchesne= Sam Gagner!!!!??? What the hell is wrong with people??! Have you people seen Duchesne skate!!!!??

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#76 WhattaMike
July 21 2013, 11:48AM
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Sammy is a player who will be paid about $5 mil per yr and as RB attested to prior in agreement with someone, the $5 mil per yr type contract will be of correct value with the cap going up every yr.

Per year...based on being the new team cap/financial salarly standard this yr and next..., it will be Hall at $6 mil, Ebs at $6 mil, then likely RNH at $6 mil and probably Yak too bringing the team to about $24 mil here in total so far, then it will be Gagner at $5 mil (if there is a deal of sense) and then J. Schultz as well.. his being likely up to probably $4.5 mil per yr.

By then the cap should be over $70 mil per yr (and going higher yrs after) and these contracts total (suggestively) only at $33.5 for the next five years. That leaves another $36.5 mil per yr for the other 17 players to divvy up.

I am very okay with Gags getting his $5 mil per yr but again without the NTC or NMC.

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#77 Old Retired Guy (A.K.A. Die-Nasty)
July 21 2013, 11:51AM
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Romulus' Apotheosis wrote:

Fans often conflate these issues. It's a shame really.

Besides the whole narrative about players = bad character because they make too much money ignores the fact that players don't operate in a free market.

Hockey is one of the more regulated markets in existence. All the tools (ELC, RFA, Cap, etc.) are designed to limit the earning power of the players on the free market.

Fans often direct their frustration at players for "getting paid" when they hit UFA status and yet conveniently ignore the years those same players put in under market conditions radically unfavorable to them. Even under UFA status there are tools that artificially limit the earning power of players.

It is understandable that some form of resentment holds against those making enormous amounts of money, but that general affect is completely without context to evaluate the market in which value is assigned.

I get your point and its accurate......but I think their is large group of fans whose frustration is not resentment at the large amounts of money that athletes make....but rather when they are overpaid relative to the market like Horcoff was....or more accurately, when they are paid big numbers based on one good years performance. When they go into the crapper in following years, there is no way of recouping the money or to trade the contract. However when the reverse is true, and a player is signed to what we call a value contract, some of these players pout and demand new deals or try to force trades etc. I think it's this inequity that causes the angst.

Fans would like things to be reasonable and fair, not just cheap. They prefer it when a guy liked PJ Subban is not payed in advance for his potential....but have little or nothing against his making a windfall when he wins the Norris.

I think that the angst over Gagner comes from a similar source. 1) the fear that he is young and still yet unproven to large degree....which means their is the potential for a boat anchor contract....(which is amplified in this market by the contracts of Horcoff, Hemsky and Smyth).....AND.....2)..the concern that Gagner is not a clutch performer, poor defence, can't win face offs, easily pushed around, etc...makes us feel like he might be the invisible man when it comes to playoff hockey....(this too is amplified in our market by the fact that we have a small team)

So....if you're going base on age, offensive stats, and desperation ( we are weak at the center position) then you want him signed at 5.25. If on the other hand your one of those who puts more weight on all round game, physicality of the playoffs, face offs, etc....you see him as a problem...and not part of the cup winning solution, but given the circumstances..you'd take him at 4.25 to 4.5...where at least he's still tradable....

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#78 Mark-LW
July 21 2013, 11:54AM
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WhattaMike wrote:

Sammy is a player who will be paid about $5 mil per yr and as RB attested to prior in agreement with someone, the $5 mil per yr type contract will be of correct value with the cap going up every yr.

Per year...based on being the new team cap/financial salarly standard this yr and next..., it will be Hall at $6 mil, Ebs at $6 mil, then likely RNH at $6 mil and probably Yak too bringing the team to about $24 mil here in total so far, then it will be Gagner at $5 mil (if there is a deal of sense) and then J. Schultz as well.. his being likely up to probably $4.5 mil per yr.

By then the cap should be over $70 mil per yr (and going higher yrs after) and these contracts total (suggestively) only at $33.5 for the next five years. That leaves another $36.5 mil per yr for the other 17 players to divvy up.

I am very okay with Gags getting his $5 mil per yr but again without the NTC or NMC.

People are suggesting that the cap will be at 70 by next year. I think you are underestimating what Yak could make. By the 2015-16 season (when Yak's new contract will take effect) That cap could be up to 80 million. That's 12.5% higher than the cap that Hall negotiated his contract under.

I'm not a believer as much as some people that Hall's contract made a 'line in the sand' for everyone. The cap will go up, the market will continue and change. And a contract signed three or four years earlier will no longer be a suitable comparison.

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#79 WhattaMike
July 21 2013, 12:00PM
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@Old Retired Guy (A.K.A. Die-Nasty)...

very well said and I agree.

@Mark-LW...

I agree with you too and i was only throwing suggestive money out there but you are right that Yak could command a bigger contract than Hall.

I think that if Gags signs at $5 mil the Oilers will be good there. With RNH, Yak and J. Schultz deals coming up the cap will be just right for their deals too...whatever the ceiling would be with capspace by then.

But IMO, it that issue of NTC and NMC that bothers me most, not the contract. Thats likely why Horcoff had the wrong type deal because of this. Too much player control versus the team with these NTC or NMC issues.

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#80 Craig1981
July 21 2013, 12:00PM
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Mr common sense wrote:

Matt Duchesne= Sam Gagner!!!!??? What the hell is wrong with people??! Have you people seen Duchesne skate!!!!??

I said somewhat similar. Gagner has averaged .62ppg vs .73ppg and last year had .79ppg vs .91ppg.

-both center -same size -within 1 year of been a UFA of each other -signed a 5 year contract in 2013 -scoring output was within .1ppg of each other

As I said, these similarities give his contract has merit to compare, not that we need to pay them the same.

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#81 Mark-LW
July 21 2013, 12:02PM
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@WhattaMike

I agree

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#82 Spydyr
July 21 2013, 12:08PM
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StHenriOilBomb wrote:

many lunacies of this post have already been highlighted, but I am curious:

Why did you chose the Eastern Conference champs instead of the "Champs", as you put it? Is it because the champs have 4 forwards and 2 dmen making over 5mil, some on back-diving contracts?

It's nice picking cherries, eh?

My mistake on the champs. As for cherry picking I'm at work (don't tell my boss) with not much time to research I just looked up a top team.

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#83 Old Retired Guy (A.K.A. Die-Nasty)
July 21 2013, 12:17PM
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Sincethewhadays wrote:

Just spit balling here. What if the solution MacT is contimplating is Arcabello in th 2c spot. If Gags gets the 1 year arbitrator dicision and Arcabello gets a decent look.... It would give us the extra C, plus a value contract for next season when we move Gags. That's assuming Aecabellos got an NHL game.

Arcabello does not have an NHL game.....

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#84 Taylor Gang
July 21 2013, 12:24PM
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Mark-LW wrote:

"Assuming that the club signs Nuge and J Scultz long term for $5M+ (or near) in the next 12 months, and have Gagner come in around $5M as well, the Oilers will be looking at about $27-29M for their five best players when the Yakupov contract comes up for review. This assumes the Nuge is willing to sign for less than $6M, and that my friends is a large assumption."

Let's assume in three years, contracts look like this:

Hall: 6
Eberle: 6
Gagner 5.5
RNH: 7
YAK: 8
Schultz: 5.5

That is 38 million for your six most important players at the moment.

That is 26% of your active roster using 47.5% of your projected cap (I'm assuming 80 million because that's what I keep hearing from media reports)

Is that number out of whack with how you should spend on elite talent? The pie obviously isn't divided equally among the roster. The best players are going to get the biggest slices.

Is it fair to assume you can fill out the roster with two other well paid defensemen and all the other parts with 52.5% of your budget?

I'd say yes.

EDIT:

Chicago used 42.5% of their budget this past season on their top 6 contracts. So I think the numbers I posted would be doable. Mind you, I'm just pulling those numbers out of my ass...

I doubt anyone will be making over 6

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#85 Craig1981
July 21 2013, 12:31PM
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@Spydyr

I must admitt after I read you admitted you were wrong about the 1rst line thing I did feel bad about my post. My bad. My mistake But I do ask you this if you traded him, how will replace him with someone that costs less? We have very little talent in our prospects at center

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#86 Spydyr
July 21 2013, 12:33PM
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PeOiler wrote:

Shouldn't you be working?

Yes, but it is Sunday a tad slow.

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#87 Spydyr
July 21 2013, 12:42PM
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Craig1981 wrote:

I must admitt after I read you admitted you were wrong about the 1rst line thing I did feel bad about my post. My bad. My mistake But I do ask you this if you traded him, how will replace him with someone that costs less? We have very little talent in our prospects at center

IMO it is not about costing less. Just putting the cost against the cap somewhere else.

Sam is a good offensive player he just does not fit into the Oilers right now .There are just too many younger, better offensive players then him here at the moment.

I agree the team needs way more depth at center. They have Nuge as the undisputed number one. After that there is really no long term depth.

Hopefully Mac-T starts loading up centers like he just did with the defense. Right now IMO the team needs a two way , gritty , tough to play against a complete player for number two center.he can bring less offense then Sam.The top two line wingers will pick up the offense.The team just needs to get harder to play against and some grit in the top two lines.

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#88 2004Z06
July 21 2013, 12:47PM
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Should have kept Cogliano. Ha ha. It's not the money guys, it's the NTC. He knows he is the odd man out for this team to contend.

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#89 a lg dubl dubl
July 21 2013, 12:54PM
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Craig1981 wrote:

You are comparing a somewhat similar player, with a similar age, with a recently signed contract! You're going against the grain here

Im sorry lol ;)

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#90 a lg dubl dubl
July 21 2013, 01:02PM
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Mark-LW wrote:

"Assuming that the club signs Nuge and J Scultz long term for $5M+ (or near) in the next 12 months, and have Gagner come in around $5M as well, the Oilers will be looking at about $27-29M for their five best players when the Yakupov contract comes up for review. This assumes the Nuge is willing to sign for less than $6M, and that my friends is a large assumption."

Let's assume in three years, contracts look like this:

Hall: 6
Eberle: 6
Gagner 5.5
RNH: 7
YAK: 8
Schultz: 5.5

That is 38 million for your six most important players at the moment.

That is 26% of your active roster using 47.5% of your projected cap (I'm assuming 80 million because that's what I keep hearing from media reports)

Is that number out of whack with how you should spend on elite talent? The pie obviously isn't divided equally among the roster. The best players are going to get the biggest slices.

Is it fair to assume you can fill out the roster with two other well paid defensemen and all the other parts with 52.5% of your budget?

I'd say yes.

EDIT:

Chicago used 42.5% of their budget this past season on their top 6 contracts. So I think the numbers I posted would be doable. Mind you, I'm just pulling those numbers out of my ass...

and don't forget DD, if he has a "Rask" like year he could want upwards of 7mil too.

I want him to have a Rask type season that'll get the team into the playoffs but I think Boston screwed the rest of the NHL with that deal

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#91 a lg dubl dubl
July 21 2013, 01:04PM
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Spydyr wrote:

IMO it is not about costing less. Just putting the cost against the cap somewhere else.

Sam is a good offensive player he just does not fit into the Oilers right now .There are just too many younger, better offensive players then him here at the moment.

I agree the team needs way more depth at center. They have Nuge as the undisputed number one. After that there is really no long term depth.

Hopefully Mac-T starts loading up centers like he just did with the defense. Right now IMO the team needs a two way , gritty , tough to play against a complete player for number two center.he can bring less offense then Sam.The top two line wingers will pick up the offense.The team just needs to get harder to play against and some grit in the top two lines.

so what your sayin is trade Gagner and put Gordon at 2nd line center?

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#92 madjam
July 21 2013, 01:04PM
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Here is normal setup for the process . Management usually has two arbitrators it likes , and union and players usually only one . Each side chooses ones they feel are more condusive to each side , Advantage management right off the bat . Gagner being nbr.1 will probably get a management choice . Everything will be taken into account - good and bad . Union always asks for more than what they know they can get , it's just part of the process . Management makes it's final offer and arbitrator knows what it is generally . Wiggle room from Management offer at this stage is minimal and arbitrator has to take that into account . Arbitrator will make a short term decision that he hopes will lead them to a resolution by mutual common ground at a later date . In other words get back to fruitfull negotiation during that compulsory arbitration ruling and period . In a nutshell , it is only a temporary decision not a long term one , and thus should not be very long .

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#93 Spydyr
July 21 2013, 01:12PM
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a lg dubl dubl wrote:

so what your sayin is trade Gagner and put Gordon at 2nd line center?

Hells no. Between Sam, Hemsky, Shultz the elder and perhaps a defensive prospect a good GM should be able to pick up a second line center such as I suggested.

I'm not saying trade all of them for said center, just that they have players that can be moved for him. Some teams may be up against the cap later this summer.Perhaps a draft pick and a prospect or two may fetch him

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#94 Spydyr
July 21 2013, 01:42PM
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a lg dubl dubl wrote:

Do you think LA would trade Richards or Carter, or Philly with Giroux or San Jose with Thorton or Pavelski for any of those players the Oilers have that are willing to trade?

2nd line centers that are 6'0+ and 200lbls+ is a lot harder to obtain via trade without any of the kids involved and right now that IMO is asinine

Im not tryin to shoot you down or start a interweb war with ya its just my opinion :)

The players you named are some of the top centers in the NHL. Set your sights a bit lower.

So your saying Sam is good enough to be second line center here but not one other team in the NHL will trade their second line center straight up for him. Kind of makes my argument doesn't it?

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#95 Dale
July 21 2013, 02:04PM
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a lg dubl dubl wrote:

Matt Duchene looks like a decent comparable to Gagner, and he just signed for 6 per, 5mil isn't really that bad people.

The Oilers can't keep eveyone making 5 million plus. Someone has to go to make the third and fourth lines better.

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#96 Quicksilver ballet
July 21 2013, 02:32PM
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See this going either way. Sam signs a 5 yr 22.5 million dollar deal in the morning, and we're all left scratching our heads wondering why we got so worked up about it. Or, the other way, Sam saying bring it all on Oiler fans by pushing for that 5.25+ deal.

If I was making that decision, i'd be offering him that 22.5/5yr option at 9 this evening, or call in sick tomorrow (walk away). Good thing it's Sam Gagner we're discussing here, and not one of the all important fab 5.

Can somebody wake me when this is over [yawn]

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#97 Craig1981
July 21 2013, 02:47PM
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@Quicksilver ballet

My guess if its a deal 5 year. $27/5yr

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#98 DieHard
July 21 2013, 03:15PM
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Jujhar Khaira and Bogdan Yakimov are the reasons the Oilers cannot let Gagner have a no trade clause. These are our centers after 2 more seasons.

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#99 Quicksilver ballet
July 21 2013, 03:20PM
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Craig1981 wrote:

My guess if its a deal 5 year. $27/5yr

We know he'll likely be getting close to that over the next 5 yrs. Do you think he earns that wearing the blue orange and white?

Screams of the Horcoff Hemsky deals all over again to me. Maybe an Arb 10 over 2 yr decision would allow them to keep their options open.

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#100 a lg dubl dubl
July 21 2013, 03:58PM
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Spydyr wrote:

The players you named are some of the top centers in the NHL. Set your sights a bit lower.

So your saying Sam is good enough to be second line center here but not one other team in the NHL will trade their second line center straight up for him. Kind of makes my argument doesn't it?

Nay nay I do think hes good enough to be a second line center on 29 other teams, all Im saying is if your going to trade Sam your going to have to get someone on par with him or better to replace him on the 2nd line center position otherwise the team is just spinning its tires (Islanders, Panthers, Bluejackets)

You wanna win, go big or go home right

If Im trading Gagner to say for example the Flyers for Giroux Id offer sam and my 1st rounder and that's all. To get a 3rd/4th line guy for sam drops us down and leaves a bigger hole on the team

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