GAGNER SIGNS FOR THREE YEARS

Jason Gregor
July 22 2013 08:29AM

 

The Oilers and Sam Gagner agreed to a three-year extension hours before their scheduled arbitration hearing.

Yesterday, I wrote that a three-year deal made the most sense for both parties, and it seems they agreed.

Gagner will make $4.4 million this coming season and $5 million in 2014 and 2015, so his cap hit will be $4.8 million and he has a NMC, but it won't kick in until year two. (NMC usually includes a NTC, so I didn't write both), and like I wrote last night it might not include year three.

This deal works well for both sides.

Craig MacTavish made it clear the past two months that Gagner is the type of person and player the Oilers need. They like Gagner's leadership abilities and his desire to win. If Gagner can continue to progress offensively and improve his overall game, this will be a very good deal for the Oilers.

In three years, the salary cap could be at $75 million and giving Gagner another million a season shouldn't be a strain on their overall cap.

Gagner wanted to stay in Edmonton. He wants to win in Edmonton, and a three year deal only takes him two years into unrestricted free agency. Gagner will still be able test the free agent market as a 26/27 year old. (He'd be 26 when he signs a new deal, but 27 when the season starts).

I see this as a rare win-win for both sides.

The Oilers now have 14 forwards, 9 D-men and 2 goalies who will fight for a job on the opening day roster.

Hall-RNH-Eberle
Perron-Gagner-Yakupov
Jones-Gordon-Hemsky
Smyth-Lander-Joensuu
Brown-Eager

J.Schultz-Ference
Smid-Petry
N.Schultz-Grebeshkov
Potter-Larsen
Belov

Dubnyk and Labarbera

Oscar Klefbom will also be in the mix, but unless he has an outstanding preseason, I'd expect him to start the season in the AHL. He only played 11 games last season, so it makes sense to let him get used to the North American game in the AHL.

Wil Acton and Ryan Hamilton are also expected to compete for a job on the 4th line, and both of them are on two-way deals. Hamilton is scheduled to make $600,000 in the NHL and $300,000 in the AHL, which usually means the organization feels he has a better chance than Acton of making the team.

The Oilers need another centre, but they don't have much cap space left. If you believe Eager and Potter start in the minors the Oilers would have about $1.8 million in cap space.

The Gagner signing was good, but MacTavish still needs to  find some more depth down the middle.

RECENTLY BY JASON GREGOR 

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One of Canada's most versatile sports personalities. Jason hosts The Jason Gregor Show, weekdays from 2 to 6 p.m., on TSN 1260, and he writes a column every Monday in the Edmonton Journal. You can follow him on Twitter at twitter.com/JasonGregor
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#101 Freewheeling Freddie
July 22 2013, 09:43AM
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It looks like another year without playoffs. How are we going to compete with La san Jose and Anaheim? As much as I like Sam I think he will be traded by July of next year. The lockout was a waste of time. These players are all over paid. Sams length of contract I really like as I feel every contract should be 3 yrs tops. The oil are better but playoff better? I guess will shall see

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#102 DieHard
July 22 2013, 09:52AM
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Gagner just needs to become a "hard to play against" player. He's got to become effective at both ends. He does not stir the drink but the puck also doesn't die on his stick. This is an important year for Gagner. It's up to him if he really wants to be an Oiler.

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#103 WhattaMike
July 22 2013, 09:52AM
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My supportive opinion of Gagner was that I wished he would sign for $.4.5 mil to $4.75 mil per yr at say 4 to 5 yrs max.

The most I was okay (not too happy with) with would have been $5 mil a yr but without a NTC or NMC.

I was strong on that I don't like those NTC or NMC type deals as well....but...this is a deal i do like very much.

Today's deal is with an excellent salary (given today's NHL market), is of an excellent starting term of jut 3 yrs (which either he proves himself or can be traded in his prime), and most of all, there is an out for the Oilers this yr in that the NTC/NMC does not kick in until next July...(which I can live with).

I am very happy this type short term deal was made considering the circumstances. Now let the kid play his heart out and show us he can do the job or not...

MacT did a great negotiations here and he keeps impressing me with being a rookie GM so far.Congrats to both sides and may success follow into this deal!!!

Now...Hemsky has to be dealt, a defenceman will have to be traded as well (I'm thinking N. Schultz), and the Oilers need at least one big tough good bottom six winger who can duke it out when needed...and one other centre such as Steckel or Zack Smith, IMO,

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#104 PutzStew
July 22 2013, 09:53AM
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Jackson wrote:

Given Gagner had very little trade value, Oilers needed to sign him. Perhaps at some point Oilers will find a 2nd line C. I've said it before it is not about the money it is about the fit. At least Oilers again will have a lottery pick.

Well Oilers continue on their quest to build a good regular season team.

Uhmmm. Just about every one of the other 29 teams would have been interested in Gagner, so I don't understand how he didn't have Trade Value.

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#105 Romulus' Apotheosis
July 22 2013, 09:55AM
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Jason Gregor wrote:

It wasn't a depth chart...if it was Potter would be 10th...behind Klefbom.

cool.

you have to think someone is on the way out and maybe a bigger piece coming back.

Coburn-Petry Smid-Ference Belov-J. Schultz Grebs-Larsen

That is some phenomenal D depth. Haven't seen the likes of that since... wow at least 06.

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#106 PutzStew
July 22 2013, 10:01AM
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Jason Gregor wrote:

The Oilers don't have a surplus of offensive centres actually. They have very little depth at centre.

This team is a few years away from being a serious contender, if they ever become one, and the NTC for a player with a respectable cap hit, and under 27 won't be a hindrance.

I think "Little Depth at Center" is an over statement to say the least right now, especially if RNH starts the season on IR.

Personally I love this. Always liked Sam. The team has been mismanaging him since he was 18 so I glad he got his payday.

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#107 fig pucker
July 22 2013, 10:01AM
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i'm happy with this deal in respect to dollars and term. thank god we stuck with gags and didn't sign grabovski, that would have been a gong show. to any one unhappy with this deal, look at it this way, the leafs signed bozak for five years at average 4.2 million a year, gags for three years at 4.8 million is right on par with market value for a player of his caliber. good job mact!

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#108 Rambelaya
July 22 2013, 10:02AM
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Interesting, now Kypreos is saying the NMC is only for year 2, which makes the deal seem even more favourable.

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#109 PutzStew
July 22 2013, 10:06AM
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oilerz wrote:

Three more years of Snowpants, three more years in the basement. Way to go Klowe and MacT. Winning teams never have a player like Gagner as their top centreman.

Your an Oilers Fan, what do you know about winning teams?

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#110 Alex
July 22 2013, 10:10AM
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Rambelaya wrote:

Interesting, now Kypreos is saying the NMC is only for year 2, which makes the deal seem even more favourable.

I think Gregor hinted at that in his article last night...

"He can't have one next year, (NMC can't kick in until a player is eligible to become a UFA), so spliting the final two years would seem reasonable."

That is what he wrote, and now it makes sense, and I agree makes the deal look even better for the Oilers.

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#111 Quicksilver ballet
July 22 2013, 10:12AM
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Have to give Sam some credit. He got what he needed and avoided the heat that usually accompanies players on a 5 or 5+ contract in this market. Still see a half million dollar overpayment on this deal at 4.8

Still think his only chance of remaining an Oiler beyond this coming season, is if he meshes with Yakupov and Perron. A near point a game season (70-75'ish) will help mask his work on the defensive side of things, so to speak.

His deal today does mean he can be moved in the next 11 months, if MacTavish is able to find an upgrade, Correct?

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#112 WhattaMike
July 22 2013, 10:18AM
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To those who say Gagner should have been traded by now already or those who are suddenly now unhappy with today's deal....how can they make any trade with any other team if no one knew what his now new deal/contract was gonna be set at?

Now there can be a team Oilers plan of two ways...#1-Sammy plays great/improves even more so than no one thought he could or... #2-Sammy has a not so good year and he is traded soon with a certain decent value for next being a 24 yr old with 2 more yrs left at $5 mil per yr.

This deal works and has both strong and fair points built into the deal for both sides IMO.

It may not be right at this time now,... but MacT has something to work with favorably if a trade becomes necessary either by the deadline next spring or to just before free agency kicks in next summer.

Fact: There was no other top bigger 2nd line centre at the right age group being UFA available at a fair price cost and/or one being shopped around this summer so far by another team...so... Sammy can now prove himself with two very excellent wingers in Perron and Yakupov. If he can't get 55 to 65 plus points in 82 games this season upcoming... with those two wingers or... can't finally start to play very good to excellent ES minutes with those two... then a trade will be coming IMO...and sooner than one would think too.

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#113 oilerjed
July 22 2013, 10:18AM
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Smokey wrote:

Any actual word on Nuge's ETA rather then assumption. With the drunken buying frenzy of MacT for overpriced surplus defencemen added to his assortment of pre-overpaid defence there is little quid for paying for an actual center now that we overpaid Gagner. Not looking like a playoff team for sure if Nuge ain't back by Nov or fully healthy by December.

Wonder what shakes loose with Hemsky, Nick Schultz, and all our decencemen now? I don't buy MacT is going to eat salary of Hemsky if hes getting a lesser player. Still think Hemsky to NJ to play with Jagr and Elias would rock. Nick Schultz, we may on the other hand have to eat salary. Wonder if Schultz will get sent out for picks.

Smokey, you call this an overpay!!?? Let go of your bias man, we shall see in 3 years but it seems likely that this contract will be looked back on like a blue light special at walmart. Im predicting 60-70pts per season.

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#115 15w40
July 22 2013, 10:20AM
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Best MacTavish could have done under the circumstances. The NTC doesn't mean he can't be moved, just that he gets a say.

I would be a little bit surprised if he gets "Jeff Cartered" just before his NTC kicks in but I guess it is a business.

Realistically, if both sides walk away grumbling about something it was probably an OK deal - better then what I said was going to happen which was a 1 year arbitration ruling and a trade getting back 50 cents on the dollar.

Between Hemsky and N. Schultz, thats 8.5 mil freed up for next year plus the cap will be going up I would think. Probably 60-75% of the 8.5 will get ate up by RNH and J. Schultz getting new deals.

Hemsky to the Devils might make sense for them but I'm not too sure what would be coming back other than a draft pick. There isn't much that the NJD would part with that the Oilers would want. Hemsky is likely a deadline deal I would think.

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#116 Saytalk
July 22 2013, 10:24AM
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I am one of Gagner's bigger detractors here and I think this was a fair deal considering that MacT bought two UFA years. While I don't like the NMC, it doesn't kick in until year 2 so Eakins has one season to instill some backchecking in Gagner's game and if it doesn't work out well then MacT can trade him before July X, 2014 (I'd like to know the exact date). With two years left until UFA, he'll have more trade value in 2014 than he did yesterday.

By the way, please don't rile people up by muttering that "desire to win" junk. Gagner's played 6 NHL seasons without ever appearing in the playoffs, so we haven't seen the real test if that desire exists, plus you have to admit he's contributed at least some small part to that sterling playoff drought. Hey, his desire to win is so strong, he resigned here, great.

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#117 PutzStew
July 22 2013, 10:27AM
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Felt wrote:

I'm wondering how long it will take for most of the Oilers fans to turn on Gagner and want to trade him.

That started 2 years ago. I'm one of the people that would have like to see he move on, because I don't think the fans here will ever respect him for what he can do., an I think he deserved better then that.

I fully suspect he will be run out of town before the NMC kicks in. That's kind of the Edmonton way.

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#118 Steven
July 22 2013, 10:28AM
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Wakey-wakey people.

Bottom line: the Oilers won't go anywhere as a team with Gagner as a number 2 center.

If the Oilers actually want to build a competitive team they need a center who can win face-offs and play defence.

More mediocrity to come. But hey, keep congratulating yourselves.

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#119 Steven
July 22 2013, 10:33AM
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@Jason Gregor

He never said centers.

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#120 admiralmark
July 22 2013, 10:35AM
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Well I predicted 3 years at $5 million and thought it would be wise for Sam to take a little less in exchange for a NTC... Not far off. I like this deal. It gives the Oilers a chance to better assess exactly what Gagner can bring consistently. I think they believe in his offence. The question is with the Top 6 in place right now is their enough Defensive capability to deal with the Bigger teams in the Pacific Division. I guess the philosophy is possess the puck more(ala Detroit) and Defence becomes less of a concern? This is a fair deal for both sides. Congrats to MacT and Gagner on a job well done.

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#121 Quicksilver ballet
July 22 2013, 10:35AM
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If I was Kevin Lowe, i'd pull that chromed steel hockey stick (that he received for playing 1000 nhl games) down off his mantle, and let Sam borrow it to work on his draws the next couple months.

Don't be coming to camp Sam till you wear out/break that 10 lb steel stick. When you come to camp in the fall, using your team issued 8 oz composite will seem like you're holding a feather.

If it'll help, i'll send him a 4'x8' sheet of 1/4" puck board to emulate the ice surface. Anyone know where a guy could purchase a 4x8' envelope? #ijustwannahelp

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#122 PutzStew
July 22 2013, 10:35AM
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Ducey wrote:

The NMC is largely irrelevant.

Lets say in two years they come to Sam and say "Sam, we have deal in place to send you to LA/PIT/PHI/DET/MTL/BOS/ (whoever it would be) for their playoff run, will you accept it?"

You think he is going to say no? How many people have said no to trade out of Edmonton?

I have been tracking Sam against his dad, who was a very similar player. Dave Gagner bounced between the minors and the NHL for 5 years after he was drafted in the first round. In draft year +6 he put up 78 points in 75 games. He went on to put up another 4 70+ pts seasons and become a great player.

Sam put up a bunch of 40+ pt NHL seasons. In draft year +6 (last yr) he put 38 pts in 48 games. Adjusted for a full season, thats 65 pts. Sam plays in more of a dead puck era, but if he follows in his dad's footsteps the Oilers should have a 65 pt player for the next 4-5 years.

Oh, and for you dumbasses that don't think Sam is a useful player: He was 17th in scoring among Centers in the NHL last year. That is by definition a #1 center.

I'll help start this off..

BUT HE"S TOO SMALL

BUT HE'S NOT PHYSICAL ENOUGH

BUT HE'S NOT NAMED SCHENN

BUT HE SHOULD PLAY CENTER

BUT HE CAN'T GROW A BEARD

BUT HE CAN GROW TOO GOOD A BEARD

ETC.

ETC.

I actually agree with you and really like Gagner as a player but just thought I'd get the whining out of the way.

That 17th in center scoring to be an really great tell and you are right, that is a number 1 center on most teams. thanx for the info.

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#123 Steven
July 22 2013, 10:42AM
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PutzStew wrote:

So are you saying this team is going to mediocre because of the Gagner signing?

Just clarifying

This signing is another symptom of the same problem: management does not know how to build a winner.

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#124 Sanaa Montana
July 22 2013, 10:46AM
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Trade Gagner.!..

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#125 PutzStew
July 22 2013, 10:46AM
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Steven wrote:

This signing is another symptom of the same problem: management does not know how to build a winner.

That started 2 years ago. I'm one of the people that would have like to see he move on, because like I don't think the fans here will ever respect him for what he can do., an I think he deserved better then that.

I fully suspect he will be run out of town before the NMC kicks in. That's kind of the Edmonton way.

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#126 Sanaa Montana
July 22 2013, 10:52AM
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Archaeologuy wrote:

He gave up being the youngest ever UFA in a season where the Cap would likely jump by 6 million, he only took a 3 year deal, and he only has a NTC in 1 of those 3 years.

He couldnt have done the Oil more favours given his contract situation.

He held all the cards and decided to give some back to MacTavish.

Gave up what? No team in their right mind will ever pay Gagner more than what he got today. He will never earn or deserve $5mil a year.

He is only a 2nd line centre(if that) on a sh!tty Oiler team. I wonder what role, position, line he would play on with a good team.

He doesn't deserve a NTC for any year.

He wants to be on the Oilers more than the Oilers want him here. The linemates he will get will make him look good and worthy of that contract.

Just like Hemsky earned Horcoff and Smyth extra money-Hall and Eberle did the same for Gagner. Hemsky helped Gagner look good too.

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#127 Steven
July 22 2013, 10:54AM
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PutzStew wrote:

That started 2 years ago. I'm one of the people that would have like to see he move on, because like I don't think the fans here will ever respect him for what he can do., an I think he deserved better then that.

I fully suspect he will be run out of town before the NMC kicks in. That's kind of the Edmonton way.

I don't like him as a player. He can't win faceoffs, can't cycle, can't play defence and can't fight. These are are crucial. Sure, he can score goals, but the Oilers have an abundance of players who can do that. So, he's expendable. In his place should be a player capable of doing the aforementioned things. Simple.

As for management, I don't see your contradiction. Sounds like you agree with me.

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#128 Sanaa Montana
July 22 2013, 10:57AM
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Asian on Oilers Nation wrote:

Love the deal. Definitely a fit for both player and team. I would like to see the top two lines as follows: Hall - Gagner - Eberle Perron - RNH - Yakupov

The first line gets the tougher minutes while the second line gets the easier minutes. I think Hall and Eberle, being the workhorses they are, will for sure improve defensively and Gagner works just as hard, if not, harder. They all have the work ethic, the smarts on D will come eventually. Expect the 2line to get lots of points and goals.

Smarts on D haven't come to Gagner in 7 years. How many more years do you give him before he gets it?

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#129 Serious Gord
July 22 2013, 10:58AM
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Gagner (and hemsky) should have been traded long ago (hemsky 12 - 24 months ago).

Getting back to my previous comment - anyone who's worked retail for any length of time understands the phrase "falling in love with the inventory". In lay and terms that means you hang onto product - valuing it more than the customer does - they aren't buying at the price you're asking - rather than ruthlessly cutting the price to make room for better inventory that has value and reducing further losses.

Gagner and hemsky are over-loved 'Inventory'. The other 29 teams didn't want to pay the price MacT presumably was asking. Either MacT is right or 29 other GMs - over twenty of whom finished higher than EDM did the last several years - are wrong.

Now we are over the cap with very little to trade and we have a first two lines that are arguably even less physical than they were last year.

And no Jayson G - deals are not ever made one a solitary basis. They always have to be made in the context of the teams needs and budget. Gagner should have been moved ages ago to get the player(s) needed to make the team better. It is not just the sum of the parts. Even a player of lesser league-wide value than gagner could be a vast improvement for the team as a whole IF they brought the elements that gagner demonstrably does not have.

Finally regarding sycophancy of almost the entire sports media in EDM. This is not a one-off as some above have implied - it has been chronic for decades. Just spend a week listening and reading the journos who follow the rangers or Canadiens or bruins and you will see he stark contrast.

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#130 PutzStew
July 22 2013, 10:59AM
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Steven wrote:

Call it whining, but those things sorta matter, you know, if you want to uhh win.

Sorry, I should be more patient with Oiler fans. They haven't seen a winning team in a decade. They don't know what it looks like anymore.

Well you could actually say that most Oilers fans haven't been able to recognize a good player in a really long time and if you are criticizing Gagner as a player you would fit into that category. If you can tell me the last time Edmonton had a center in the top 17 in NHL scoring I would give you a hero cookie.

Now if you would like to argue that Gagner and RNH might not be the best complementary centers to have on a team then I would agree with you, but I bet Gagner would have had plenty of offers if he hit the FA market.

Oh and to clarify, although I am a fan of a few of the players, and hope they do well, due to the management and ownership of this team, I am happy to see them stink it up.

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#131 Steven
July 22 2013, 10:59AM
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@Bucknuck

Hometown discount? Good lord.

I am not trolling. I am being critical. As one should be. I love the Oilers, and sometimes being critical is an expression of love.

You see. Fans like me, and others you may refer to as trolls have a mature kind of love for the Oilers. Like how a father may yell at their child for doing something dangerous, out of love. Whereas fans like yourself love them no matter what and see any dissent as "trolling." This is a childish love, like how a toddler sees Mommy as good no matter what.

Some fans need to wake up a smell the coffee, namely: that the oilers suck.

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#132 Steven
July 22 2013, 11:01AM
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@2004Z06

Nobody is expecting a team to give away a winning #2C. That's a false argument. But I do not understand why MacTavish has been so impotent on that front either. Anything, and I mean anything is for sale if the price is right. Make another GM an offer they can't refuse, and guess what? The won't.

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#133 PutzStew
July 22 2013, 11:02AM
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Steven wrote:

Hometown discount? Good lord.

I am not trolling. I am being critical. As one should be. I love the Oilers, and sometimes being critical is an expression of love.

You see. Fans like me, and others you may refer to as trolls have a mature kind of love for the Oilers. Like how a father may yell at their child for doing something dangerous, out of love. Whereas fans like yourself love them no matter what and see any dissent as "trolling." This is a childish love, like how a toddler sees Mommy as good no matter what.

Some fans need to wake up a smell the coffee, namely: that the oilers suck.

Great Comment.

Very true. I feel the same and have for a couple years.

What do you think needs to turn around in order to fix this?

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#134 PutzStew
July 22 2013, 11:09AM
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Sanaa Montana wrote:

Smarts on D haven't come to Gagner in 7 years. How many more years do you give him before he gets it?

I would argue that Gagner has never had a good NHL coach to help teach him some of this.

Ruff's treatment of Hall and Eberle in the world cup backs this up. The Oilers young guys have never had the right coaching and I would argue that this is part of the problem of this team.

You can also add bad management and owner ship, lack of good leadership, no accountability from higher ups (Yes You Mr. Lowe), just to name a few issues.

It doesn't matter whom is on the ice, until this other problems get fixed, Oilers are going to be bottom feeders.

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#135 Spydyr
July 22 2013, 11:10AM
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Sanaa Montana wrote:

Smarts on D haven't come to Gagner in 7 years. How many more years do you give him before he gets it?

Maybe after the next six years , it might be some kind of funky cycle. Come on give him a chance.Then six more and you have 666.Scary kids.

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#136 Oil Kings 'n' Pretty Things
July 22 2013, 11:10AM
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Bicepus Maximus - Peter, The Great. Potter, the Goat. wrote:

SAMMI SWEETHEART!

I wonder how Tambellini would have handled this?

He would be assessing Sam's ability to mesh with another team as the second-line scoring centre he is, with nothing to show for it.

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#137 PutzStew
July 22 2013, 11:17AM
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Steven wrote:

I don't like him as a player. He can't win faceoffs, can't cycle, can't play defence and can't fight. These are are crucial. Sure, he can score goals, but the Oilers have an abundance of players who can do that. So, he's expendable. In his place should be a player capable of doing the aforementioned things. Simple.

As for management, I don't see your contradiction. Sounds like you agree with me.

Sorry about the management. I actually meant "I don't totally disagree with you" My bad.

So he was 17th in scoring for centers last year. No offence but that makes your argument referring to scoring null it also weakens the argument about cycling. As for fighting, well....he's not suppose to be a fighter and yet he still does, and against some bigger guys. props to that.

So once we nullify you non arguments, we have can not play defence and poor on face-offs.

Would you like to continue?

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#138 PutzStew
July 22 2013, 11:18AM
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Jason Gregor wrote:

Yes, Andrew Cogliano got traded after he filed for arbitration. He then signed a deal with the Ducks before going to arbitration.

Thanx Jason.

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#139 2004Z06
July 22 2013, 11:19AM
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@Steven

Well he has been on the job for a total of 2 months and has spent the majority of that time cleaning up his predecessors mess. I would hardly call it being impotent. What price would you pay? We aren't giving up one of the Fab 5 just yet and no one wants anything else we have. Yes anything is for sale providing you have currency and we don't!

Many Oilers fans have been critical of the players/ownership/management at times(including myself) so you certainly aren't accurate in your comments regarding fans refusal to see the reality of what the Oilers are currently.

Rome wasn't built in a day after all. How about we wait until the season starts to assess Mac T's "bold" summer?

Or did you expect we would go from bottom feeder to cup champs overnight? Now that would be unrealistic!

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#140 madjam
July 22 2013, 11:25AM
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Good day for Oilers and their fans . Now maybe we should look at young low cost high reward acquisitions at center that could pan out rapidly in B.Pirri and M.A.Cliche .

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#141 DSF
July 22 2013, 11:35AM
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Mark-LW wrote:

Gagner is obviously not a defensive specialist shut down centre, but why does everyone think he is SO BAD that we should be trading away a top scoring centre who is in his early twenties?

Willis just tweeted about how in Gagner's last full season, his faceoff % only meant that he cost the team 16 faceoffs in AN ENTIRE YEAR compared to being 50%. That is nothing.

Also, his last two full seasons he has been one of the top forwards in terms of Corsi Rel and Corsi Rel - read: There are bigger problems defensively than him.

Good grief.

Uh, no.

Last season he was -14.4 in Corsi On. That was 10th among Oiler forwards who played 20+ games.

He was -4.3 in Corsi Rel. That was 9th among Oiler forwards who played 20+ games.

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#142 Mikey
July 22 2013, 11:44AM
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DSF wrote:

Uh, no.

Last season he was -14.4 in Corsi On. That was 10th among Oiler forwards who played 20+ games.

He was -4.3 in Corsi Rel. That was 9th among Oiler forwards who played 20+ games.

Come on now, you can obviously see he ment the last two 82 game seasons.

Or is am I reaching?

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#143 bazmagoo
July 22 2013, 11:47AM
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Good deal for Sammy, secured his NMC in year 2 when he is most vulnerable (Nail's entry level contract is up that seson). Seems like a win-win for both sides, as long as Gags keeps progressing.

Now onto the next Oilers topic, lol, where do we move Hemmer too? Now that Jagr is on New Jersey, how about sending Ales to them?

Hemmer for Steve Bernier, Krys Barch and a 2nd round pick? Too much, one way or the other? Not enough? Personally I think Steve Bernier and a 2nd round pick would be enough, considering the contract.

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#144 DSF
July 22 2013, 11:50AM
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Mikey wrote:

Come on now, you can obviously see he ment the last two 82 game seasons.

Or is am I reaching?

I think he is reaching by ignoring the most recent evidence.

Some observers think the issue was Kreuger's systems.

We'll soon find out.

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#145 Darrell
July 22 2013, 11:53AM
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DSF wrote:

Uh, no.

Last season he was -14.4 in Corsi On. That was 10th among Oiler forwards who played 20+ games.

He was -4.3 in Corsi Rel. That was 9th among Oiler forwards who played 20+ games.

DSF - sometimes regular season stats don't mean sh!t. If you need an examples look in your own backyard ....

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#146 Sanaa Montana
July 22 2013, 11:57AM
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Archaeologuy wrote:

You should probably take a look to see what UFAs actually get paid. Gagner will get his money, one way or the other. He took less to stay an Oiler 2 years past his Free Agency opportunity.

What other UFAs get paid should have no say on what Gagner deserves?.(I know it does)

Gagner might get $5mil, on a miracle or a team ran by a desperate GM and measures. I believe that Gagner's play, so far in his career-does not deserve $5mil a year or anywhere close to that.

He took less to stay an Oiler, yes. Did he take less because he wanted to be an Oiler or because it was in his best interest? Gagner, his father, his agent and advisors probably did the math and realized this was in their best interest and that is probably why they took a "home town discount".

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#147 Sanaa Montana
July 22 2013, 12:01PM
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The Soup Fascist wrote:

"Gave up what? No team in their right mind will ever pay Gagner more than what he got today. He will never earn or deserve $5mil a year."

Excellent comment. NHL GMs are renowned for their decision making in signing UFAs to reasonable contracts - especially when the cap goes up due to lucrative new television contracts. General Managers in the NHL have historically been very prudent in not overpaying good to above average point producers.

Clearly you have an excellent grasp on financial realities. I am in actuality a Nigerian Prince and think you would be a prime candidate as someone I would like to invest my millions with. There is just the small matter of the transaction fees. If you could just wire $10,000 to the following off-shore account ....

Just so I got this right; you misread what I said, you think Gagner is good to above average and overpayed, and you have no sense of humour?

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#148 DSF
July 22 2013, 12:05PM
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Romulus' Apotheosis wrote:

Gagner's Corsi collapse wasn't isolated.

If it was, an argument would be easier to build.

However, there is a context for this, as for all things adv. stats.

1. The entire 2 line collapsed.

2. the players on the 2 line (ie., Hemsky, Gagner) have a track record of fine Corsi numbers.

this is a very strange set of circumstances. Dellow has suffered mightily trying to sort it out.

I suspect the answer is pretty banal. These players were never miracle workers defensively. However, nor were they brutal. Last year was most likely an aberration caused by a variety of factors.

also, since when is DSF taking corsi seriously?

Oh, right, since it is an argument against Gagner.

My only problem with Corsi is that it rewards failure by including blocked and missed shots.

Shot differential, to me, is a closer measure.

Those who try and use Corsi as a "possession" metric are trying to use a chainsaw to crack a walnut.

During this past season, TSN actually started to use a device that actually measures time...you know...a stopwatch.

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#149 Asian on Oilers Nation
July 22 2013, 12:05PM
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@Sanaa Montana

How old is Gagner again?? He wasn't rushed into the NHL at the age of 18, was he?

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#150 Smokey
July 22 2013, 12:06PM
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Clyde Frog wrote:

Gagner wins 46.5ish% of his draws.... Assuming he takes 2000 face offs next year (which is high estimate) and gets to 50.5% win rate....

That equates to an amazing 80 extra wins in the dot for the whole season.

That's right folks, winning almost a whole extra draw a game...

Yeah turf the smurf! Find us a 35 pt centre with a 50+% face off percentage!!! I am sure that extra draw a game will give us more return than the extra 20pts Sam would put up.

If Sam can win 49-50 percent of his draws. Then he would be less of liability.

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