RAJALA RISING?

Lowetide
July 26 2013 08:00PM

For some time now, we've been talking about equivalencies, using Gabriel Desjardins' NHLE's going back several years. The boys over at NHL Numbers have had a lash at updating the equation, and now Rob Vollman from Hockey Prospectus gives it a try. The results--when applied to the Oilers prospect base--suggest there are some very talented offensive players bubbling under.

AHL PROSPECTS

(photo by Rob Ferguson, all rights reserved)

Vollman's system for the AHL is multi-tiered based on age and the recent past (in terms of AHL to NHL progression) suggests young players who are 19-21 are more likely to carry their offense to the NHL. This isn't a new idea, but the severity of the progression is more pronounced in the Vollman model. Here's an overview of the AHL forwards from 2012-13 and their NHL equivalencies using Rob Vollman's work.

NHL EQUIVALENCIES, OKC BARONS F, age 19-21 (per 82 games)

  • Toni Rajala 14-22-36 (this is a solid number at 21 years old)
  • Anton Lander 9-11-20
  • Ryan Martindale 7-8-15

These are the 19-to-21 year olds in the current group run through Vollman's NHL equivalency.

  • Vollman: Our study found that particularly high-scoring 19- to 21-year-olds are virtually guaranteed scoring success in the NHL.

Toni Rajala--at 21--narrowly missed scoring at a point-per-game clip and is certainly a candidate for NHL employment based on his season with the Barons. Lander is a checker, so his offense here would correctly suggest we're looking at a role playing C whose value is more defensive. Martindale at least makes the list, something Tyler Pitlick and Curtis Hamilton didn't score enough to do this past season.

NHL EQUIVALENCIES, OKC BARONS F, age 22-26 (per 82 games)

The group 22 to 26 years old are less likely to build an NHL career based on Vollman's work, meaning a player like Mark Arcobello (or Teemu Hartikainen) is less likely to make it.

  • Mark Arcobello 11-23-34
  • Teemu Hartikainen 11-18-29
  • Phil Cornet 12-14-16
  • Vollman: While a super-high AHL scorer under age 22 might ultimately turn out to be a legitimate NHL level scorer as well, that's quite unlikely when the AHLer is 23 or older. There may be the occasional late bloomer, but most older players who are good enough to dominate the AHL level aren't good enough to win a regular top-six shift at the NHL level, possibly due to their small size, weak skating abilities, or lack of defensive commitment.

Vollman's look at 27+ year olds is not encouraging for that group; for instance, the odds that Colin McDonald (as an example) remains in the NHL at a high level are unlikely--a much better outer marker would be a role player like Toby Petersen.

WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN?

Many of the AHL numbers used by Vollman match Desjardins' original, with a small adjustment for the 19-to-21 year old mid-level talents like Lander being the major item. Much of the information above would be very similar (or identical) to the Desjardins' numbers run a decade before, but that in and of itself has value.

I do think Vollman's 'line in the sand' at 22+ is a more pronounced judgement than we've assumed in the past, and it'll be interesting to see how this rolls out into the future.

My personal thanks to Mr. Vollman for his permission in using information from his book in preparing this article. You can preview the book here.

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Lowetide has been one of the Oilogosphere's shining lights for over a century. You can check him out here at OilersNation and at lowetide.ca. He is also the host of Lowdown with Lowetide weekday mornings 10-noon on Team 1260.
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#51 GVBlackhawk
July 27 2013, 10:45AM
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toni_rajalapeno wrote:

My name that I've had for years will finally one day be relevant again! Rajala was an absolute joy to watch at the Memorial Cup in Brandon, really crafty player.

Most of the 'he's too small' people on here have never seen him play. He is a scoring chance machine and drives play on almost every shift. Also is not afraid to play in the dirty areas. The Oilers would do well to give this kid a chance.

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#52 GVBlackhawk
July 27 2013, 10:52AM
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K_Mart wrote:

Buffalo tried this in 06-07 and it worked really well.

They had 9 guys on pace to break 20 goals.

43,37,34,32,23,21,19,16,13,9,6,4 were the goal totals for their forwards.

If I remember correctly though, when they reached the playoffs they were so badly injured and missing so many players that they set a record for fewest nhl starters to dress for a playoff game. Not sure if that was linked to the fact that they were likely the smallest team in the league, but either way, they proved you can run 4 scoring lines and be successful.

There were only 3 playoff teams with a worse goals against than them that year so their defensive play was likely lacking.

I've never been a believer that you have to be like the Kings to win. You can win many different ways, and we are going to try and do it with average size and high skill.

That is true. And further to your point, neither the Kings or Bruins would have won if their respective goalies hadn't played out-of-their-minds. None of the other big teams (eg. San Jose) have won anything.

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#53 Bucknuck
July 27 2013, 10:54AM
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It's great he's on the farm team for when there is an injury and we need skilled call up. It's great to have options. Particularly when you have an injury riddled team like the Oil seem to get every year.

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#54 GVBlackhawk
July 27 2013, 10:55AM
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Mr common sense wrote:

Ummm. How tall is this guy? Do they grow taller after 21? Ummmm yeah. Next article

Can you please post a link that correlates height with winning? I must have missed that.

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#55 The Soup Fascist
July 27 2013, 11:01AM
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Mr common sense wrote:

Ummm. How tall is this guy? Do they grow taller after 21? Ummmm yeah. Next article

Maybe JF Jacques is around.

Is your "Nation Name" supposed to be ironic? If so .....well played!

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#56 Soccer Steve
July 27 2013, 11:25AM
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There are many guidelines and how-to's on the internet regarding the handling and dismissing of trolls. I suggest many of you look them up and read them.

You are being just as silly as he is, by the way.

Fanning the flames of a fire in an attempt to put it out....

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#57 WhattaMike
July 27 2013, 11:56AM
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First off, I am not one who worries about every player on the team having to be over 6' tall because it is speed, skill, scoring, and defence that wins the games, not plodding, hulking, lack of offence, fighting, etc.

Don't get me wrong, cause I like to see protection and fights during the game but just not the way it is now in today's league with staging and instigator rules. When fights back in the 70's and 80's hgappened those were awesome and brutal...today is just a dance.

Yes, I know the big guys hit harder to plaster those onto the boards but the smaller guys just have to work around this and not get in the wrong positions.

That being said, this is why a guy like Rajala can make a big difference on the Oilers' team for the 3rd to 4th lines. Not only is he an asset to have when injuries come up...he is crafty, speedy and he can shoot accurately, pass excellently, etc.

A line of him Gordon and hemsky would make a great other scoring line and the 4th can be the power heavies line with those such as Lander, Acton, Smyth, Jones, Eager, Joensuu, Hamilton, etc.

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#58 oliveoilers
July 27 2013, 12:06PM
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Soccer Steve wrote:

There are many guidelines and how-to's on the internet regarding the handling and dismissing of trolls. I suggest many of you look them up and read them.

You are being just as silly as he is, by the way.

Fanning the flames of a fire in an attempt to put it out....

Did you get this from the internet? Get back in your box.

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#59 Harry
July 27 2013, 12:28PM
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GVBlackhawk wrote:

No but Steven Stamkos is....Marty St. Louis can't hear you with his Stanley Cup ring plugging his ear.

Your argument has no basis in fact.

No basis hey? How about 30th, 30th, 29th, 23rd. Hows that for basis. Dont argue just for the sake of arguing

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#60 harry
July 27 2013, 12:29PM
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Theres also an exeption to every rule and Rajalla sure as gell isnt St. Louis

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#61 Harry
July 27 2013, 12:48PM
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HardBoiledOil wrote:

c'mon, harry, he's been trying! Clarkson decided to sign with home town Toronto instead of here and that's OK. he did sign Boyd Gordon and he's not small at 6'1" 200, as is Clarkson. i don't believe MacT is done either and he has to compete with other teams who want the same players. it's painful, but it's just going to take time. it's still July and he has Hemsky yet to dump.

I agree he is trying. Its just so frustrating seeing someone talk up Rajalla when hes the complete opposite of the kind of player we need. Why dont we leave Lander a full season in the AHL to develop and sign Stekel for one year??

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#62 The Soup Fascist
July 27 2013, 12:52PM
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Harry wrote:

I agree he is trying. Its just so frustrating seeing someone talk up Rajalla when hes the complete opposite of the kind of player we need. Why dont we leave Lander a full season in the AHL to develop and sign Stekel for one year??

Not a bad idea but can you do that before moving a contract? Pretty tight to the cap. Would Steckel sign a one year?

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#63 Walter Sobchak
July 27 2013, 01:08PM
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Jeppers creepers!

Height and weight is the most overrated excuse a blogger can come up with!

If you can argue the fact a player is hard on the puck, hits, fights, is dogged determined to get the puck, keep the puck and has excellent defensive play with good offensive skill then by all means present your case.

to say we need to trade X player because he's small is a lame argument, at least try and throw in the "we have to many like players."

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#64 HardBoiledOil
July 27 2013, 01:08PM
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Harry wrote:

No basis hey? How about 30th, 30th, 29th, 23rd. Hows that for basis. Dont argue just for the sake of arguing

i think the finishes we had may have been due to the rebuild we went through moreso than just player size. i know posters hate to hear it, but be patient. bigger d-men like Marincin, Klefbom, Musil, Gernat and Nurse are coming and bigger forwards like Pitlick, Curtis Hamilton, Moroz have at least a *chance* to make it in the near future.

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#65 Soccer Steve
July 27 2013, 01:21PM
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oliveoilers wrote:

Did you get this from the internet? Get back in your box.

...

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#66 harry
July 27 2013, 02:15PM
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Walter Sobchak wrote:

Jeppers creepers!

Height and weight is the most overrated excuse a blogger can come up with!

If you can argue the fact a player is hard on the puck, hits, fights, is dogged determined to get the puck, keep the puck and has excellent defensive play with good offensive skill then by all means present your case.

to say we need to trade X player because he's small is a lame argument, at least try and throw in the "we have to many like players."

You must know more than MacT cause size is STILL his #1 prority . We have great tops 6 some size on the bottom six would be nice. not a 5'9" hemsky jr

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#67 OilClog
July 27 2013, 04:54PM
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harry wrote:

Theres also an exeption to every rule and Rajalla sure as gell isnt St. Louis

Pretty sure, Toni's #'s right now.. better then Martin's when he was 21? Rajala has 5 years until he needs to explode on the scene like St. Louis did..just saying

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#68 GVBlackhawk
July 27 2013, 06:00PM
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Harry wrote:

No basis hey? How about 30th, 30th, 29th, 23rd. Hows that for basis. Dont argue just for the sake of arguing

No I'm not arguing for the sake of arguing. I'm trying to change your perspective. You seem narrow-focused on a size issue.

Lack of size is not the reason why the Oilers finished where they did. There are a myriad of other reasons such as porous defense, underperforming veterans, horrible goaltending, rushing rookies to the NHL and expecting them to outperform in their role.

Once again...no basis.

And as someone else already pointed out, St.Louis was not a high-end performer at age 21. In fact, the Flames let him go for nothing.

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#69 harry
July 27 2013, 06:06PM
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GVBlackhawk wrote:

No I'm not arguing for the sake of arguing. I'm trying to change your perspective. You seem narrow-focused on a size issue.

Lack of size is not the reason why the Oilers finished where they did. There are a myriad of other reasons such as porous defense, underperforming veterans, horrible goaltending, rushing rookies to the NHL and expecting them to outperform in their role.

Once again...no basis.

And as someone else already pointed out, St.Louis was not a high-end performer at age 21. In fact, the Flames let him go for nothing.

You say so so it must be true. My reason for stating the Oilers need size it because 1) i watch the games and see them being dominated physically 2) Our GM says himself he wants a bigger beefier bottom six. Is that good enough or do I need to go into more detail?

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#70 GVBlackhawk
July 27 2013, 08:34PM
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harry wrote:

You say so so it must be true. My reason for stating the Oilers need size it because 1) i watch the games and see them being dominated physically 2) Our GM says himself he wants a bigger beefier bottom six. Is that good enough or do I need to go into more detail?

Oh you watch the games. Okay well I can't argue with that one. Nobody else watches the games I guess...

If you want to live in a black and white world with your blinders on, that's up to you.

MacT said that he wants a team that plays a puck possession game. He also clearly stated that he wants players with skill; size would be nice but not without skill. He also said that there were too many players in the lineup last season that were 'at best, a non-factor'.

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#71 decily
July 27 2013, 10:45PM
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After being in relationship with husband for nine years,he broke up with me, I did everything possible to bring him back but all was in vain, I wanted him back so much because of the love I have for him, I begged him with everything, I made promises but he refused. I explained my problem to someone online and she suggested that I should contact a spell caster that could help me cast a spell to bring him back but I am the type that don't believed in spell, I had no choice than to try it, I saw some good talk about this spell caster called Dr kala and I email him, and he told me there was no problem that everything will be okay before three days, that my ex will return to me before three days, he cast the spell and surprisingly in the second day, it was around 4pm. My ex called me, I was so surprised, I answered the call and all he said was that he was so sorry for everything that happened, that he wanted me to return to him, that he loves me so much. I was so happy and went to him, that was how we started living together happily again. Since then, I have made promise that anybody I know that have a relationship problem, I would be of help to such person by referring him or her to the only real and powerful spell caster who helped me with my own problem. Anybody could need the help of the spell caster, his email: Kalalovespell@gmail.com you can email him if you need his assistance in your relationship or anything.I CAN NEVER STOP TALKING ABOUT YOU SIR HIS EMAIL ADDRESS IS: Kalalovespell@gmail.com CONTACT HIM NOW FOR SOLUTION TO ALL YOUR PROBLEMS

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#72 Bigfan
July 27 2013, 11:12PM
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Huh?

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#73 GVBlackhawk
July 28 2013, 12:40AM
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decily wrote:

After being in relationship with husband for nine years,he broke up with me, I did everything possible to bring him back but all was in vain, I wanted him back so much because of the love I have for him, I begged him with everything, I made promises but he refused. I explained my problem to someone online and she suggested that I should contact a spell caster that could help me cast a spell to bring him back but I am the type that don't believed in spell, I had no choice than to try it, I saw some good talk about this spell caster called Dr kala and I email him, and he told me there was no problem that everything will be okay before three days, that my ex will return to me before three days, he cast the spell and surprisingly in the second day, it was around 4pm. My ex called me, I was so surprised, I answered the call and all he said was that he was so sorry for everything that happened, that he wanted me to return to him, that he loves me so much. I was so happy and went to him, that was how we started living together happily again. Since then, I have made promise that anybody I know that have a relationship problem, I would be of help to such person by referring him or her to the only real and powerful spell caster who helped me with my own problem. Anybody could need the help of the spell caster, his email: Kalalovespell@gmail.com you can email him if you need his assistance in your relationship or anything.I CAN NEVER STOP TALKING ABOUT YOU SIR HIS EMAIL ADDRESS IS: Kalalovespell@gmail.com CONTACT HIM NOW FOR SOLUTION TO ALL YOUR PROBLEMS

Can he create a spell to get the Oilers into the playoffs?

How about getting rid of a rash known as DSF? Because that would be truly remarkable.

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#74 Desperado
July 28 2013, 02:17AM
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Too small and have enough skill already to have use for Rajala

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#75 Desperado
July 28 2013, 02:27AM
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Desperado wrote:

Too small and have enough skill already to have use for Rajala

But then again if the injury bug hits, it would be interesting to see him called up and tested!

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#76 GRAHAM
July 28 2013, 06:28PM
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THE ONLY TRUTHFUL SPELL CASTER AND MY GOD WILL REWORD YOU

Dr ODUBU brought back my lover when others spell caster failed ME, he is the best spell caster on planet earth. I have contacted several spell casters to help me bring back my lover and after my ex he left me and my son for 2 yrs and moved in with another woman and all this spell caster they usually promise me and at the end fail me. MY NAME,MISS GRAHAM' 2 weeks ago i was in the street of 148 summit ave jersey city nj and a lady was sharing this hand bill so i collected one and the content was about this spell caster that brought back her lover and also in the hand bill she said she is sharing the hand bill to raise awareness that there are still real spell casters and also as a way to thank the great spell caster. before i meet this lady who shared the hand bill had already given up on spell casters because they only promise and fail so this faithful day when i meet this lady and read the content of the hand bill was like before a lady will share this hand bill on the street it means the spell really works so contacted him and after 24 hrs my whole story changed my husband who had left without any reason came back. using this post as my own hand bill to tell people how great DR.ODUBU is and also to share his contact with the whole world. his email {odubuspiritualtempledr@yahoo.com} AND I CAN NEVER FORGET THIS MAN ON EARTH. THANK YOU.

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#77 john
July 29 2013, 11:52PM
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i thank you dr osarenti as you put smile on my face again. back,because it has been a lonely life for me since 3years ago because of my body no one want to marry me but when i contacted you i became every man desire and my Ex has come back again with many flowers and even begging me to come have a marriage with him..wow these is the happiest time of my life and i thank you papa,but if you also need help, you can contact him via templeofgreatness@gmail.com

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#78 Carol
July 31 2013, 04:44AM
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#79 KAREN
August 01 2013, 03:53PM
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Dr OLOKUN brought back my lover when others failed he is the best spell caster on planet earth. I had contacted several spell casters to help bring back my lover after he left me and my son for 2 yrs and moved in with another woman they usually promise and at the end fail. 2 weeks ago i was on the street and a lady was sharing this hand bill so i collected one and the content was about this spell caster that brought back her lover and also in the hand bill she said she is sharing the hand bill to raise awareness that there are still real spell casters and also as a way to thank the great spell caster. before i meet this lady who shared the hand bill had already given up on spell casters because they only promise and fail so this faithful day when i meet this lady and read the content of the hand bill was like before a lady will share this hand bill on the street it means the spell really works so contacted him and after 24 hrs my whole story changed my husband who had left without any reason came back. using this post as my own hand bill to tell people how great DR.OLOKUN is and also to share his contact with the whole world. his email:(dr.olokunspell2caster@gmail. com) for your solutions call +2347051841955.KAREN

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#80 CARDENAS
August 03 2013, 09:07AM
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#81 rachel
August 03 2013, 05:14PM
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What would i have done if not for kala spell,my name is rachel, I am 27 years old and i have a son. Unfortunately almost a year ago his father broke up with me because of a mistake I made and I just really want him back. He is the best thing that has ever happened to me and I want our family to be complete again, I want to spend the rest of my life with him. I read online that you helped a girl in this situation and I contact him for help. I grew up with my parents divorced and I don’t want that for my son and I miss my husband so much and just want our family to be whole again I want the love of my life back and I can honestly say that because he is the only man I have ever truly loved with all my heart.So i seek help from Kalalovespell@gmail.com and he responded to me and he cast a love spell for me which i use in getting back my husband and i am happy and greatful to him for helping me. Kalalovespell@gmail.com the only through spell caster i have ever known.

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#82 britney
August 03 2013, 05:15PM
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my ex-boyfriend dumped me 3 months ago after I caught him of having an affair with someone else and insulting him. I want him back in my life but he refuse to have any contact with me. I was so confuse and don’t know what to do, so I visited the internet for help and I saw a testimony on how a spell caster (Dr Perfect) help them to get their ex back so I contact the spell caster (Dr Perfect) and explain my problems to him….. he cast a spell for me and assure me of 3 days that my ex will return to me and to my greatest surprise the third day my boyfriend came knocking on my door and beg for forgiveness. I am so happy that my love is back again and not only that, we are about to get married. Once again thank you for helping me to get my love back and your love spell is truely perfect, you are truly talented and gifted i will continue to publish your name on the net because of the good work you are doing.If you need his help contact him now through his email: perfectspellcaster3@gmail.com He also specialize on all kind of spell such as:

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#83 VAN
August 07 2013, 10:08AM
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I am Van from Germany and i am out here to thank Dr.Zabaza for a bringing back my lover to me within 48 hours. I am not suppose to be exposing my secret but i am just doing it to save others that are in pains right now just like myself before i meet Dr.Zabaza. The best place to save your relationship is to contact Dr.Zabaza on zabazalogan@yahoo.com or call him on +2348182620374 and with 48 hours all your relationship troubles will be gone

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#84 Stacy
August 09 2013, 04:19PM
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My name is Stacy and I base in USA...“My life is back!!! After 14 years of Broken marriage, my husband left me and our two twins . I felt like my life was about to end i almost committed suicide, i was emotionally down for a very long time. Thanks to a spell caster called Dr Aluya which i met online. On one faithful day, as I was browsing through the internet, I was searching for a good spell caster that can solve my problems. I came across alot of testimonies about this particular spell caster. Some people testified that he brought their Ex lover back, some testified that he restores womb,cure cancer,and other sickness, some testified that he can cast a spell to stop divorce and so on. i also come across one particular testimony,it was about a woman called Sonia,she testified about how Dr Aluya brought back her Ex lover in less than 7 days and reverse the effect of their little boys cancer, and at the end of her testimony she dropped Dr. Aluya's e-mail address. After reading all these,I decided to give Dr Aluya a try. I contacted him via email and explained my problem to him. In just 3 days, my husband came back to me. We solved our issues, and we are even happier than before. Dr Aluya is really a gifted man and i will not stop publishing him because he is a wonderful man... If you have a problem and you are looking for a real and genuine spell caster to solve all your problems for you. Try Dr Aluya anytime, he might be the answer to your problems. Here's his contact:{aluyakespelltemple@live.com}.or by phone :2348063371948 Thank you Dr Aluya.

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