Ryan Nugent-Hopkins: Seven more years

Jonathan Willis
September 19 2013 02:11PM

 

The Edmonton Oilers announced on Thursday that they had signed centre Ryan Nugent-Hopkins to a seven-year contract extension.

The cap hit - $6 million per season - matches those of Taylor Hall and Jordan Eberle. By signing those two players to $6 million/year contracts, the Oilers established a benchmark for both Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and, presumably, Nail Yakupov one year from now.

Some will doubtless question the dollars involved here - particularly with Nugent-Hopkins coming off a difficult half-season - but the fact is that the 2011 first overall pick has scored at a level in the NHL that can make the Oilers feel very comfortable with his long-term upside:

Like Tyler Dellow, I tend to think that a bridge contract was never a likely outcome here. Not only that, but a bridge contract is a way to defer when a player is paid and minimize risk. In the case of the Oilers, it makes no sense to pay less now so they can pay more later, and in the case of Nugent-Hopkins the risk is minimal - this wasn't a late pick surprising, this is a guy with a track record of performance that made him first in his draft class and got him into the NHL at 18, and then saw him produce in the world's toughest league at an age when many future stars are still back in junior.

This is a good player to bet on. The money is a little steeper right now than it would be in a perfect world, but this has the potential to be a bargain contract relative to performance very soon. Given that Nugent-Hopkins has a year left on his entry-level contract, this new pact might turn out to be fair value from day one. By the end of this deal, the terms should be excellent value for the team.

Nail Yakupov's contract is now a fait accompli, meaning the Oilers will have four forwards at the cost of $24 million. Some will lump Justin Schultz in with that group; he may or may not get the same deal but he hasn't earned it today - with one year left on his entry-level contract, 2013-14 is shaping up to be a very big year for Schultz. 

Recently around the Nation Network

First, a quick reminder: StreakCred is free for the pre-season - sign up to win not only real money but also something far more valuable: NationGear. 

Earlier this week, the Winnipeg Jets locked up general manager Kevin Cheveldayoff for two more years. At Jets Nation, Travis Hrubeniuk explains why that's a little odd:

I think I speak for almost everyone when I say that the timing of this is a little weird. No, not that it was announced in the middle of training camp just over two weeks from opening night, but because of the state of the team. Kevin Cheveldayoff has been in control of the Winnipeg Jets for just over two years now. Admittedly, they have been two very peculiar years, but he has had two years nonetheless, and little has truly changed in this team's overall standing. Yet, despite there still being three seasons remaining on his contract, TNSE has decided that his moves to this point have been sufficient enough to warrant an extension?

Click the link above to read more, or feel free to check out some of my recent stuff below:

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Jonathan Willis is a freelance writer. He currently works for Oilers Nation, Sportsnet, the Edmonton Journal and Bleacher Report. He's co-written three books and worked for myriad websites, including Grantland, ESPN, The Score, and Hockey Prospectus. He was previously the founder and managing editor of Copper & Blue.
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#101 hemi
September 20 2013, 09:07AM
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@Cyle Frog: That my good Sir was stupendous! By far, the most entertaining and well thought out "shut-up" I have read yet regarding DSF.

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#102 Oil Kings 'n' Pretty Things
September 19 2013, 03:14PM
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hallsyoilerforever5 wrote:

You're talking about a window of a winning a cup to end soon? I think you forgot to add in your canucks.

I don't often defend DSF's comments, but I think his comment is a fair one.

Additionally, the Canucks' window closing has nothing to do with the Oilers' window.

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#103 Papamike
September 19 2013, 03:50PM
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All this math hurts my brain. I just wish my boys played hockey instead of soccer or baseball.

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#104 Harry
September 19 2013, 08:33PM
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jonnyquixote wrote:

I don't know if the Yakupov contract is a fait accompli as suggested here. RNH got "Hall money" while doing less over his first 2 seasons.

What if Yakupov does the same or more? Can we really expect him to take the same as a similar or lesser player got 2 years prior? Why does Hall's contract set a ceiling for him? It doesn't work that way in any other sport, and it wouldn't work that way in the NHL if Yakupov was on a different team - the 1st overall's contract, assuming he's tracking similar to other 1st overalls, shows an increase over the previous one.

Yak loves being an Oiler so why would he hold out over 500-750k?

If hes smart he sees a very good oportunity to play with 3 very good players for a long time.

Dito for Shultz who lets not forget CHOSE this team over 29 others.

Yak has a real smart agent in Igor Larionov so I see his contract being as easy to sign as the others.

Fab 5 are here to stay for a long long time!!

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#105 Racki
September 19 2013, 08:57PM
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Detroit's "tonne of flexibility" is also the team that has the highest cap in the NHL.

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#106 CaptainLander
September 19 2013, 09:53PM
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DSF's argument is that they will have issues meeting a cap that will not increase, and that the Oil sign Yak and Schultz to similar contracts. Why not a bridge contract? Say 2 years, would that not by the Oil the time to allow the cap to increase? Or any number of possible scenarios. Stick to your perfect record of hindsight Oil bashing predictions and avoid the future ones. Any team in the league would have given the Nuge that contract if they could.

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#107 pkam
September 20 2013, 12:23AM
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Woogie63 wrote:

Wow this is a long term for a player coming off a bad year. Two injury in two years....i think RNH was 142 in league scoring last year.

It feels like a little to fast to tie up that much term when you could have taken 40 or 80 games to understand if want to be "married" for the next 560 games.

The simple answer to your question is: opportunity.

We can wait till the end of the year, but if he has strong performance, we will have to pay him more or risk to go to arbitration or match offersheet.

Last year, we could have locked up Gagner to 4-5 years at around 4.0M but management choose to watch for another year and sign a one year bridge at 3.2M. He has a good year and we end up have to sign him at 4.8M.

It is a gamble and you win if you are correct and lose otherwise. If you think he is going to get better, you lock him up early before the opportunity is gone.

Just look at Hall, do you think we can still sign him at 6M per with the number he has this year?

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#108 Kodiak
September 20 2013, 07:46AM
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DSF wrote:

And?

Kadri outscored Hopkins last season 44-24.

Kadri was +15 on a dreadful possession team while Hopkins was only +3.

When Hopkins new deal kicks in, he'll be paid $6M while Kadri will make $2.9M.

Which team do you think has a tremendous competitive advantage in 2014/15?

You say look past your nose and then only look at 2014/15? Hilarious. What about 2015/16 when Kadri puts up big numbers over the next two years and is negotiating a contract with a higher cap. He'll be wanting $8m+/yr?

The only risk to Nuge's contract is him not delivering and I think from what everyone has seen that won't be an issue. TML's risk is Kadri does deliver and they can't afford him in his prime.

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#109 Rod from Viking
September 20 2013, 08:31AM
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@Clyde Frog

Hilarious and probably accurate.

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#110 StHenriOilBomb
September 20 2013, 08:56AM
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michael wrote:

The only people who think Kadri is better than RNH are DSF and anyone with eyes that can see.

The trolls and naysayers will always look to bring the Oilers down. I for one see the cornerstones for a competitive franchise for years to come.

Skill and Character equal Stability and Success.

Book it DSF.

... I'm so confused.

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#111 tileguy
September 19 2013, 03:09PM
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Speaking of Sportsnet, I hope they trash that picture in picture of the player leaving the penalty box. It covered up Marincin leaving the box and I'm still wondering why he didn't have a clear cut breakwawy.

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#112 Romulus' Apotheosis
September 19 2013, 05:14PM
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mk wrote:

I don't think a comparison to the Blackhawks is apt at all. They were nearly a playoff team the first year with Toews/Kane, made a big run in the second year, and won in the third year.

The Oilers still haven't even made the playoffs and are starting: year 4 of Hall/Eberle, year 3 of RNH and year 2 of Yakupov.

Not to mention, Chicago had a SOLID D-core (traditionally taking more development time) before Toews/Kane/Hossa arrived. I think the Oilers are still at least 2 or 3 years from any real shot at a deep playoff run - that's a far cry from the Blackhawks model.

We're talking about cap structure here.

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#113 Gaz
September 19 2013, 05:25PM
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@DSF

I think you're making a pretty fair argument here, DSF.

Unfortunately, you are prone to making assumptions on trades/divestitures when arguing for other teams, so let's try that here for the Oilers, shall we?

If the Oilers do find themselves top heavy, as you assert, then, like other teams have done, we can assume that they will move one of these $6MM contracts for value prospects and players.

The nice thing about a $6MM hit is that, while a large number, it is not prohibitive to most teams to pick up that sort of salary, particularly if the player is at or nearing his peak years. Eberle or Yakupov would be my guesses for trade bait, should a situation arise where the cap has not increased at a predictable rate and the team is an cap trouble.

Of course, this assumes that these pricey players are still producing and as such carry market value...but assumptions haven't ever stopped us here before, have they?

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#114 JJ
September 19 2013, 06:20PM
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Nuge is now making more than John Tavares.. What are the Oilers thinking? Should have given them all 5m contracts but they caved in too early.

Who here would rather have Nuge than Tavares on their team? Exactly. Terrible overpayment for a fragile and soft center.

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#115 Freewheeling Freddie
September 19 2013, 08:36PM
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Not many years ago the city was in tears because we couldn't afford the great Dougie Weight so we trade him .Also from that same era Cujo. Now we have potentially 5 players making 6 million. How times have changed. Nuge is a great player but the shoulder could be a major issue. Shoulder surgery before he is 20.Iam all for the players making good money but 6 million before you really haven't proved anything. The lockout was a waste of time, time to revamp the salary structure, but that will never happen because of the many weasel agents. Oh well 12 days to puck drop playoffs please.

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#116 pkam
September 19 2013, 10:13PM
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DSF wrote:

This contract and the Schultz/Yakupov deals to follow pretty much signifies the Oilers window to win a cup will be very soon and very short.

If Schultz gets, say, $5M and Yakupov gets $6M (both very likely IMO), Petry gets $3.5M and Dubnyk gets $4M, the Oilers will need to have many players on ELC's just to get under the cap in 2015/16.

If those numbers above are close to accurate, the Oilers will have about $55M committed to the cap with only 12 players under contract.

If James Mirtle's salary cap projections for 2015/16 are accurate, the cap will be around $66M.

That means the Oilers will only have $11M to sign another 11 players.

That dog won't hunt.

Not sure how with your arguments you can come up with the conclusion that the Oilers window to win a cup will be very soon and very short.

Not saying I agree with your cap projection, but assuming you are correct, the Oilers will have a cap problem in 2015/16. But salary should go up after 2015/16 so our situation will improve with all the long term contracts. If we don't have enough cap space to sign another 11 players in 2015/16, we should be able to in 16/17 or 17/18 with the increase in salary cap and no increase in our long term contracts. So I don't understand why our window is very soon and short.

Another argument is many teams will have cap problem in 2015/16, and most of them will likely be worse than our situation. When there is not enough HRR to provide a higher cap, teams will have less money to sign their players and players will have to lower their asking price to get a contract. So 3rd and 4th line UFA will be more affordable.

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#117 jonnyquixote
September 19 2013, 10:43PM
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Harry wrote:

Yak loves being an Oiler so why would he hold out over 500-750k?

If hes smart he sees a very good oportunity to play with 3 very good players for a long time.

Dito for Shultz who lets not forget CHOSE this team over 29 others.

Yak has a real smart agent in Igor Larionov so I see his contract being as easy to sign as the others.

Fab 5 are here to stay for a long long time!!

I hope you're right, but it seems like wishful thinking - I think we can agree, that's best case scenario.

If Larionov is so smart, he'll recognize that economics dictate that Yakupov not accept an artificially imposed salary cap set by another agent, and instead get a contract that reflects his market value (as set by both what NHL and KHL teams will be willing to pay for him).

Which - assuming he matches Hall's output and accomplishments over the first 2 seasons of his career - would indicate a raise over Hall's contract signed in 2012. (And assuming Yak exceeds Hall's accomplishments...)

If Larionov is a 'real smart agent' - and I agree that he is - he's not going to let Bobby Orr set Yakupov's salary simply as a fait accompli.

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#118 Harry
September 19 2013, 11:21PM
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DSF wrote:

Imagine Hopkins recovers from his surgery the same way Horcoff and Hemsky did.

In other words, he is a ghost of his former self.

It's a huge risk.

Do you honestly think MacT or.anyone for that matter is stupid enough to give 40+mil to a guy who they think wont be healthy?

And Horcoff is garbage so please never bring up his name again

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#119 pkam
September 20 2013, 12:04AM
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JJ wrote:

Yea, I would really be pissed off too if I was only making 5.5 million a year.

Seriously, who comes up with this?

Because you don't have the talent to make even 1/10 of that.

If everyone in your team is making 60K a year, how do you feel if your boss only offer you 55K?

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#120 Paul
September 20 2013, 08:10AM
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Clyde Frog wrote:

After a long night DSF stares at the ceiling in bleary eyed contentment.

He had done it! He had fended off every attack or thought these silly Oiler fans dared to have, many without even reading them!

He was getting that good, DSF now only needed to read 15% of a post to get the gist and provide the magnificent counter punch he is famous (on the internet) for!

With practice he firmly believes he will be able to respond with even less of his time wasted reading the actual thoughts of his fans... Then he will have the ultimate ability to crush the hopes of a entire fanbase who are silly enough to enjoy their team.

Microwaving his celebratory twinky, he pushes each and every Mike Gillis bobble head doll of his 164 doll collection, until all of them are bobbing up and down in unison...

Smiling knowingly while pops the steaming hot twinky into his mouth, he starts to plot his next move in proving how RNH's 50+ point rookie season was nothing more than an abberation; feeling the acceptance and support of his 164 Gillis's is all he needs to give him the strength to carry on the fight...

Well that and more hot pockets... How can Mother expect him to perform at his peak if he is constantly out of hot pockets!? He has no time for food that can't be cooked in under 2 minutes! Grabbing his broom he starts banging the ceiling to wake Mother so she can hurry to the store!

He has no time to waste himself! The Gillis's are right! By now there will be at least 4 more fans who have allowed hope to enter their hearts!

With a sigh he brushes the crumbs from his shirt and leaps towards his keyboard, he must do as the Gillis's will it! For who else can understand their complex genius if not he?

Hahaha, I missed these. Thanks for the laugh on a Friday morning.

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#121 michael
September 20 2013, 08:15AM
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Romulus' Apotheosis wrote:

Mirtle is giving a conservative estimate, with growth at 5% per year, while noting growth during the past CBA averaged 7.2%.

Either way, it's not a problem, but we should acknowledge he is already projecting a conservative estimate and it is probably more likely to be rosy than bleak going forward.

Very conservative in my opinion. Its like the Alberta Government saying its only going to cost 5 billion to rebuild after this seasons floods in Southern Alberta. Or that the price of Oil will be 70 a barrel in their budjet when its 106. Even the bitumen bubble still increases the revenue by 15-20 % in revenue to the province.

Pundits will usually err on the side of caution when talking about something that is not known. I don't disagree with that thinking. But when were talking about HHR and suchlike the projections are so far flung and diverse that you could not get 2 people to agree as to what the cap will be in 1 year never ming 3 years from now. Who knows how the world economy will play out.

MacT is smart. He has an MBA. For those who don't know that is a Masters in Buisness Administration. I suppose he might know a thing or three about economics and suchlike. I think I'll put my faith in MacT rather James Mirtles pie in the sky predictions. MacT might have a better sense/knowledge of where the cap is going considering he is an NHL GM.

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#122 michael
September 19 2013, 03:39PM
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The cap will be closer to 70 million.The HRR is going come from the increase in TV revenue from the new contracts that the NHL will be signing with NBC and fro HNIC. The HNIC contract will be massive. The bidding will be most likely begin at the 200 million dollar a year mark. The HNIC contract with CBC currently has an exclusivity clause. It may be more open moving forward. But if it isn't you can guarantee that whoever wins the bid will pay bigtime to the NHL for that exclusivity. The CBC's biggest money AD maker comes from HNIC. To give that up would be crushing. Either way the league wins and the players win and the salary cap goes up.

Yak gets 40 goals and this whole 6x7 goes out the window and we'll be looking at probably 5x 7. DD will not get more than 4.5 on any of his contracts even if wins a CUP. Not going to happen. Ever.Teams have learned from the Roberto Luongo deal and the Depietro and Bryzgalov deal where their money needs to be spent.

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#123 commonfan14
September 19 2013, 05:08PM
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That Mirtle article is from January right after the lockout, when it was assumed HRR was going to take a big hit.

That didn't really happen, and last month Elliotte Friedman said leasgue sources are telling him that the cap could easily hit the $80 million mark by the 2017-18 season.

That's instead of the $73.1 million projected for that year by Mirtle back in January.

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#124 a lg dubl dubl
September 19 2013, 06:13PM
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Nuge comes back, wins the selke(sp?) throphy.

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#125 Gaz
September 19 2013, 06:19PM
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@pkam

Yeah, I haven't read the Mirtle article, but the salary cap has grown by approximately 8.75% year-over-year since 2005-06. I'm not sure where DSF is getting his math. By that reckoning, the salary cap should be approx $70 million. Yes, that uses an average annual growth rate, and there is a revised CBA, but the point stands.

Oilers banking on salary cap growth is not a fool's errand.

Turns out the dog can hunt!

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#126 JJ
September 19 2013, 06:24PM
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pkam wrote:

Not a good idea in my opinion. You're basically saying he is not as good as Hall and Eberle. That 500K/year saving is not worth to piss off your 1st line center for the next 7 years.

Yea, I would really be pissed off too if I was only making 5.5 million a year.

Seriously, who comes up with this?

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#127 Dog Train
September 19 2013, 08:42PM
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With the way that the salary cap is expected to go up, having 3, probably 4 in a few seasons, players locked up to long-term deals at 6 million dollars could be a bargain. I still believe that one thing Tambellini did well when he was here was the deals with Hall and Eberle. Nobody will make more than 6 million dollars per year on this team. It's similar to what Detroit did with Lidstrom years back and it helped them keep a very solid core together for a long time.

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#128 drdoogie
September 19 2013, 09:28PM
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Okay, let's just stop with the constant comparisons to Chicago, Pittsburgh and every other good team that bottomed out. Did Vancouver, New Jersey and Boston bottom out for 5 straight years to eventually get them into the big dance over the past few years? Who cares how many young studs you have unless you actually see progression? Even if they manage to make the playoffs this year, the next year they may miss them again. So what?? Are people going to jump off the High Level bridge then?? Take a chill pill and enjoy the games and let the chips fall where they may. If the nerd that wrote this blog wants to profess to being the king wordsmith of northern alberta by disecting anyone that challenges his opinion, then I would suggest the words 'get a life' may apply here. Go Oil!!

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#129 madjam
September 19 2013, 10:46PM
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Lots of teams were better than we were last year - but such will not be the case this year . Some newbies are looking good to improve our results . Currently Joensuu , Ference , Nurse and Perron add plenty to our new look . Nurse is top 2 right now with Ference until about 6 others can show they are better - which isn't happening so far . As Eaves alluded to , you earn your spot and Nurse has done that so far .

Others should all see vast improvement this year in results , effort and team play . This will be a breakout year , but most are so accustomed to watching us lose you'll probably miss the enjoyment of watching us surface until late in the year . Onward and upward .

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#130 michael
September 20 2013, 07:48AM
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The only people who think Kadri is better than RNH are DSF and anyone with eyes that can see.

The trolls and naysayers will always look to bring the Oilers down. I for one see the cornerstones for a competitive franchise for years to come.

Skill and Character equal Stability and Success.

Book it DSF.

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#131 They're $hittie
September 20 2013, 09:36AM
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tileguy wrote:

Perhaps the last word on the subject (doubtful)

Not one person here has thanked Tambo for setting the template for these great signings.

That is becuase the Template would have been good if only Hall got 6 and Eberle didnt. If Eberle was at 5.3 than Gagner would have been cheaper, and there would have been a possibility of getting Nuge for slightly less. Now if Yak gets a 50 point season he will also get 6M. I dont have a problem with the number ones getting 6M. The problem was Eberle got overpaid based on one year which set a precedent for the next guys saying here is 6M no matter how you play. IF we could have saved 700K on Eberle, 350K more on Gagner, 300K on Nuge; and possibly see where to save on Yak (pending his performance) that could be an extra 1.5 - 2M dollars.

Nuge is good and will cover the bet. the problem is the message is set that you dont need to perform to get paid. We are paying based on pedigree.

Oh and Kadri? Gimme a f#(@ing break.

EDIT: the 6M internal cap could have been set with just Hall. Didnt need he and Eberle both to set it. Particularly with Nuge ready the next year for it.

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#132 pkam
September 19 2013, 04:25PM
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Mikey wrote:

Only thing to say to that is.... The Pens are screwed too!

You bring up a very good point. I am going to take a look at cap geek and see how other teams are set up.

The fact is not just the Pens structure their signing like this, other cap spending teams structure their salary very similarly.

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#133 mk
September 19 2013, 05:01PM
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@Craig1981

I don't think a comparison to the Blackhawks is apt at all. They were nearly a playoff team the first year with Toews/Kane, made a big run in the second year, and won in the third year.

The Oilers still haven't even made the playoffs and are starting: year 4 of Hall/Eberle, year 3 of RNH and year 2 of Yakupov.

Not to mention, Chicago had a SOLID D-core (traditionally taking more development time) before Toews/Kane/Hossa arrived. I think the Oilers are still at least 2 or 3 years from any real shot at a deep playoff run - that's a far cry from the Blackhawks model.

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#134 mk
September 19 2013, 05:39PM
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@Romulus' Apotheosis

I understand that, but the point was also made that the Oilers are preparing a dynasty "like Chicago", thus my comment.

I'm surprised no one has attempted a comparison with LA's structure...

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#135 jonnyquixote
September 19 2013, 07:55PM
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I don't know if the Yakupov contract is a fait accompli as suggested here. RNH got "Hall money" while doing less over his first 2 seasons.

What if Yakupov does the same or more? Can we really expect him to take the same as a similar or lesser player got 2 years prior? Why does Hall's contract set a ceiling for him? It doesn't work that way in any other sport, and it wouldn't work that way in the NHL if Yakupov was on a different team - the 1st overall's contract, assuming he's tracking similar to other 1st overalls, shows an increase over the previous one.

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#136 Harry
September 19 2013, 08:19PM
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Jonathan Willis wrote:

soph - ist - ry, noun. The use of fallacious arguments, esp. with the intention of deceiving.

For example: "Once Heatley leaves, the Wild will have only three players making more than $5.0 million; the Oilers will have five."

Why is it sophistry? Because while true, it misleads. This sentence, for example, is equally true, and just as misleading: "The Wild have four players making $6.75 million or more. The Oilers have none."

Man im glad you have a way with words to.deal.with this troll. Lord know I dont have the patients.

Just like im putting complete trust in MacT.

Furthermore I see JShultz hopefully getting a Subban type deal.

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#137 DSF
September 19 2013, 10:10PM
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Racki wrote:

Carrying on with my rant about teams top 3 forwards...

PIT: Crosby, Malkin, Neal ($22.4M)

MIN: Parise, Koivu, Heatley ($21.79M)

CAR: Staalx2 , Semin ($21.25m)

WAS: Ovechkin, Backstrom, Laich ($20.7m)

ANA: Perry, Getzlaf, Koivu ($20.375m)

SJS: Thornton, Marleau, Burns (converted..) ($19.66M)

NYR: Nash, Richards, Callahan ($18.74M)

CHI: Kane, Toews, Sharp ($18.5M)

DET: Datsyuk, Zetterberg, Alfie ($18.2M)

TBL: Stamkos, St. Louis, Filppula ($18.125M)

EDM: Hall, Nuge, Eberle ($18M)

LAK: Kopitar, Richards, Carter ($17.82m)

CBJ: Gaborik, Horton, Umberger ($17.4M)

BOS: Lucic, Iginla, Krejci ( $17.25M)

VAN: Sedin, Sedin, Kesler ($17.2M)

DAL: Seguin, Horcoff, Benn ($16.5M)

OTT: Spezza, Ryan, Michalek ($16.43M)

NJD: Zajac, Elias, Clowe ($16.1M)

TOR: Kessel, Lupul, Clarkson ($15.9M)

BUF: Vanek, Leino, Hodgson ($15.89M)

COL: Stastny, O'Reilly, Parenteau ($15.6M)

WIN: Wheeler, Kane, Little ($15.5M)

PHX: Ribeiro, Doan, Vermette ($14.55M)

MTL: Plekanec, Gionta, Pacioretty ($14.5M)

CGY: Camalleri, Hudler, Jones ($14M)

PHI: Hartnell, Lecavalier, Voracek ($13.5M)

NSH: Legwand, Hornqvist, Fisher ($12.95M)

STL: Backes, Oshie, Stewart ($12.825M)

FLA: Fleischmann, Versteeg, Barkov ($12.48M)

NYI: Tavares, Bailey, Moulson ($11.93M)

League average is $15.8M. Oilers have the 11th most expensive forward trio. Is that terrible? Heck no, considering that the value on players constantly goes up, even though the cap went down, and the Oilers signed all 3 within the past year, approximately.

Also, the Oilers are just outside the top 3rd of the league for forwards.. closer more to the middle. So I consider that just fine, myself, for a team whose top 3 forwards are 23 at the oldest.

I think the Oilers are right in line with what these guys should be making. A lot of the teams on this list that have "bargain forwards" really actually just have CRAP forwards, or guys who are still on ELCs that will get paid, or they have money tied up elsewhere (such as Philly, who have most of their money in D).

I don't really think $18M for Hall, Eberle and Nuge is out of line at all.

Thing is...every team ahead of the Oilers on your list is also substantially better than the Oilers.

The closest is likely Minnesota who would have bought out Heatley if he wasn't injured.

The problem is the Oilers (barring trade) are locked into those contracts for many, many years while teams like Dallas, Colorado and Detroit have short term flexibility while the Olers will have none.

As stated earlier, the Oilers will be fine if they are adept enough to build a Stanley Cup winner in the next 7 years but, given how they will be in very tough to hire quality secondary players, that won't be easy.

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#138 Romulus' Apotheosis
September 19 2013, 10:17PM
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mk wrote:

Wrong. The claim was that these deals were pieces in building a dynasty like the Blackhawks. My argument was that (irrespective of whether they achieve some sort of dynasty) the Oilers won't achieve the same things as the Hawks did.

Which is both speculative and off-topic. A red herring.

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#139 DSF
September 19 2013, 10:19PM
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book¡e wrote:

Kadri at 22 appears to have reached a similar level to Hopkins at 19.

And?

Kadri outscored Hopkins last season 44-24.

Kadri was +15 on a dreadful possession team while Hopkins was only +3.

When Hopkins new deal kicks in, he'll be paid $6M while Kadri will make $2.9M.

Which team do you think has a tremendous competitive advantage in 2014/15?

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#140 DSF
September 19 2013, 10:21PM
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Time Travelling Sean wrote:

Is there? At 20 Kadri was still in the AHL, and RNH is a quality NHLer with 1 shoulder, imagine him with 1 and another enhanced/engineered one, plus he's growing into his body and getting more chemistry with Hall/Yak/Schultz.

RNH is going to improve offensively this year over last, not to mention carry over his improved defensive play.

If Kadri doesn't regress he'll be an excellent top 3 forward on most NHL teams, but he probably will.

Imagine Hopkins recovers from his surgery the same way Horcoff and Hemsky did.

In other words, he is a ghost of his former self.

It's a huge risk.

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#141 Spoils
September 19 2013, 11:03PM
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@pkam

RNH, Hall, Ebs, then Yak sure, but ideally we are tossing Klefbom and Nurse on that salary pile as well.

didn't the Canucks take a pay cut to keep the team together?

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#142 Harry
September 19 2013, 11:18PM
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jonnyquixote wrote:

I hope you're right, but it seems like wishful thinking - I think we can agree, that's best case scenario.

If Larionov is so smart, he'll recognize that economics dictate that Yakupov not accept an artificially imposed salary cap set by another agent, and instead get a contract that reflects his market value (as set by both what NHL and KHL teams will be willing to pay for him).

Which - assuming he matches Hall's output and accomplishments over the first 2 seasons of his career - would indicate a raise over Hall's contract signed in 2012. (And assuming Yak exceeds Hall's accomplishments...)

If Larionov is a 'real smart agent' - and I agree that he is - he's not going to let Bobby Orr set Yakupov's salary simply as a fait accompli.

I hate to say it but if yakupov or shultz ask for more than 6 mil per season they will be traded.

I dont see either of them doing that

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#143 Rama Lama
September 20 2013, 09:36AM
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The best player to come out the WHL in 20 years...........I would have signed him to a longer contract but 7 will do fine.

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#144 tileguy
September 20 2013, 09:40AM
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Overpaid Wild Did you know that some magazines have Eberle scoring more points than Hall this year?

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#145 ubermiguel
September 20 2013, 09:53AM
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Rama Lama wrote:

The best player to come out the WHL in 20 years...........I would have signed him to a longer contract but 7 will do fine.

8 years is the max you can re-sign your own player, so 7 isn't bad.

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#146 Lochenzo
September 20 2013, 10:25AM
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You only use bridge contracts for guys that you are unsure about, in terms of their numbers regressing to the mean or maturity issues. PK Subban, obviously all of the talent in the world, it didn't surprise me to see him win the Norris. But all of that could have easily unhinged for him. Lack of discipline in his game and off the ice could have made him a lesser player.

Dion Phaneuf should have been signed to a bridge contract. He just wasn't ready for it. Money got to his head. Dramatic exit from Calgary where he supposedly got into a fist fight with Iginla. Underperformed his contract for a few years and then finally pulled it together the last year or two.

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#147 DSF
September 19 2013, 03:53PM
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Ducey wrote:

First, its tough to believe the cap will only go up $2 million in 2 years.

Second, if it doesn't go up then you can always trade someone.

If the cap does go up a significant amount (it certainly will over the next 7 years) then its a steal of a deal.

Capgeek says that they are at $36 million for 8 players (Hall, Perron, Nuge, Ebs, Smid Ference, Gordon, Gagner).

Add Yak at $6, Schultz, Petry and DD at $4M each, thats another $18 M and a total of $54 M for 12. $13M for 13 guys is certainly possible when you have your top 12 locked up.

People keep forgetting that the cap this season is artificially high.

The only reason is that it was negotiated that way in the new CBA so a ton of players weren't going to get thrown out of work.

Based on HRR and the players share dropping to 50%, the cap should be around $60M this season, not $64.3M.

Mirtle is projecting the cap to stay flat for the 2014/15 season (because under the CBA it can't drop below that figure) and then start rising.

One caveat on his projections is that they were based on the Canadian dollar at par but, in reality, it is now trading at 97 cents so they may be somewhat optimistic.

So, using a baseline of $60M, if the cap rises to $66M in 2014/15, that's significant.

Here's the article if you want a closer look.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/sports/hockey/globe-on-hockey/how-the-nhls-salary-cap-could-hit-90-million/article7029575/

As for your last point, $13M is NOT adequate for 13 guys unless you have just a ton of quality players on ELC's.

Given that Nurse would have a cap hit of $1.775M and Klefbom $1.244M, that would only leave $10M for 10 guys.

Players like Belov, Grebs and Larsen all run you more than $1M per

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#148 RyanCoke
September 19 2013, 04:15PM
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I'm hooked to streakcred now. Damn wanye and his crappy games.

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#149 Ducey
September 19 2013, 04:29PM
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Sorry double post.

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#150 Romulus' Apotheosis
September 19 2013, 06:19PM
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mk wrote:

I understand that, but the point was also made that the Oilers are preparing a dynasty "like Chicago", thus my comment.

I'm surprised no one has attempted a comparison with LA's structure...

These are separate questions, red herrings.

Also, they are projection based. No one knows if the Oil come close to the Hawks success. History will tell us.

What history won't show is that the Oiler cap structure is success prohibitive.

Here's LA's cap structure http://www.capgeek.com/kings/

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