Ryan Nugent-Hopkins: Seven more years

Jonathan Willis
September 19 2013 02:11PM

 

The Edmonton Oilers announced on Thursday that they had signed centre Ryan Nugent-Hopkins to a seven-year contract extension.

The cap hit - $6 million per season - matches those of Taylor Hall and Jordan Eberle. By signing those two players to $6 million/year contracts, the Oilers established a benchmark for both Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and, presumably, Nail Yakupov one year from now.

Some will doubtless question the dollars involved here - particularly with Nugent-Hopkins coming off a difficult half-season - but the fact is that the 2011 first overall pick has scored at a level in the NHL that can make the Oilers feel very comfortable with his long-term upside:

Like Tyler Dellow, I tend to think that a bridge contract was never a likely outcome here. Not only that, but a bridge contract is a way to defer when a player is paid and minimize risk. In the case of the Oilers, it makes no sense to pay less now so they can pay more later, and in the case of Nugent-Hopkins the risk is minimal - this wasn't a late pick surprising, this is a guy with a track record of performance that made him first in his draft class and got him into the NHL at 18, and then saw him produce in the world's toughest league at an age when many future stars are still back in junior.

This is a good player to bet on. The money is a little steeper right now than it would be in a perfect world, but this has the potential to be a bargain contract relative to performance very soon. Given that Nugent-Hopkins has a year left on his entry-level contract, this new pact might turn out to be fair value from day one. By the end of this deal, the terms should be excellent value for the team.

Nail Yakupov's contract is now a fait accompli, meaning the Oilers will have four forwards at the cost of $24 million. Some will lump Justin Schultz in with that group; he may or may not get the same deal but he hasn't earned it today - with one year left on his entry-level contract, 2013-14 is shaping up to be a very big year for Schultz. 

Recently around the Nation Network

First, a quick reminder: StreakCred is free for the pre-season - sign up to win not only real money but also something far more valuable: NationGear. 

Earlier this week, the Winnipeg Jets locked up general manager Kevin Cheveldayoff for two more years. At Jets Nation, Travis Hrubeniuk explains why that's a little odd:

I think I speak for almost everyone when I say that the timing of this is a little weird. No, not that it was announced in the middle of training camp just over two weeks from opening night, but because of the state of the team. Kevin Cheveldayoff has been in control of the Winnipeg Jets for just over two years now. Admittedly, they have been two very peculiar years, but he has had two years nonetheless, and little has truly changed in this team's overall standing. Yet, despite there still being three seasons remaining on his contract, TNSE has decided that his moves to this point have been sufficient enough to warrant an extension?

Click the link above to read more, or feel free to check out some of my recent stuff below:

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Jonathan Willis is a freelance writer. He currently works for Oilers Nation, the Edmonton Journal and Bleacher Report. He's co-written three books and worked for myriad websites, including Grantland, ESPN, The Score, and Hockey Prospectus. He was previously the founder and managing editor of Copper & Blue.
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#1 DSF
September 19 2013, 03:02PM
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This contract and the Schultz/Yakupov deals to follow pretty much signifies the Oilers window to win a cup will be very soon and very short.

If Schultz gets, say, $5M and Yakupov gets $6M (both very likely IMO), Petry gets $3.5M and Dubnyk gets $4M, the Oilers will need to have many players on ELC's just to get under the cap in 2015/16.

If those numbers above are close to accurate, the Oilers will have about $55M committed to the cap with only 12 players under contract.

If James Mirtle's salary cap projections for 2015/16 are accurate, the cap will be around $66M.

That means the Oilers will only have $11M to sign another 11 players.

That dog won't hunt.

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#2 DSF
September 19 2013, 10:05PM
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CaptainLander wrote:

DSF's argument is that they will have issues meeting a cap that will not increase, and that the Oil sign Yak and Schultz to similar contracts. Why not a bridge contract? Say 2 years, would that not by the Oil the time to allow the cap to increase? Or any number of possible scenarios. Stick to your perfect record of hindsight Oil bashing predictions and avoid the future ones. Any team in the league would have given the Nuge that contract if they could.

Would they?

There is a pretty strong argument that Kadri is at least as good as Hopkins.

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#3 JJ
September 19 2013, 06:20PM
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Nuge is now making more than John Tavares.. What are the Oilers thinking? Should have given them all 5m contracts but they caved in too early.

Who here would rather have Nuge than Tavares on their team? Exactly. Terrible overpayment for a fragile and soft center.

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#4 DSF
September 19 2013, 03:14PM
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hallsyoilerforever5 wrote:

You're talking about a window of a winning a cup to end soon? I think you forgot to add in your canucks.

Were they under discussion?

Try and stay on point Sparky.

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#5 DSF
September 19 2013, 04:18PM
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Romulus' Apotheosis wrote:

"more than 5M" is an interesting world of possibility for the Wild.

Thing is, the Wild are paying 3 elite players with an established record of success that kind of money.

And even with Heatley's boat anchor contract on the books are only the 23rd highest spending team in the league with $3.75M in cap space this season.

The Oilers are already the 10th highest payroll team in the league BEFORE the Hopkins, Schultz, Yakupov and Petry deals.

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#6 DSF
September 19 2013, 04:33PM
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Jonathan Willis wrote:

Okay, let's assume your numbers are all right - $66MM salary cap, the money for Schultz and Petry too.

Here's the roster:

  • Hall - Nugent-Hopkins - Yakuopv
  • Perron - Gagner - Eberle
  • ??? - Gordon - ???
  • ??? - ??? - ???
  • Smid - Schultz
  • Ference - Petry
  • Nurse - Klefbom
  • Dubnyk

So, that leaves you with the need to find two bottom-nine wingers, a fourth line and 13th forward, a seventh defenceman and a backup goalie. The total cost above is $57.9 million by my count, so you have 8.1 million for those eight pieces.

If Gernat or Musil can play seventh D, that's 900K and the defence is taken care of. Add in a LaBarbera equivalent for the backup at $1.0MM (or do what Carolina did and bring in a Khudobin-type for less). That leaves you ~6.2 million for the last six forwards on the roster, which seems totally doable.

Of course it's "doable" if you have the right players at the right price to plug into those spots and IF you can win a cup that way.

I would think the two 3rd line wingers are likely to run you at least $2.0M each if they are any good, so that leaves you with $1.2M for the last 3 forward spots.

If you look at Detroit as a contending but not championship team, their 4th line is currently:

Nyquist ($950K ELC)

Helm ($2.1M)

Tootoo ($1.9M)

Because Detroit only has 3 (Datsyuk, Zetterberg and Howard) making more than $5M in 2014/15, they have a ton of flexibility and yet still have a very solid core.

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#7 Hayek
September 19 2013, 02:44PM
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Ok deal, but after last season, would have been nice to get him at a discount, maybe something in the $5.5M per season range.

Probably not the greatest negotiation on MacT's part, but once Eberle was signed to an overpayment of $6M/season, RNH probably wouldn't settle for less.

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#8 DSF
September 19 2013, 04:39PM
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Jonathan Willis wrote:

DSF wrote:

Thing is, the Wild are paying 3 elite players with an established record of success that kind of money.

Best seasons in terms of points-per-game:

  • Zach Parise: 1.15
  • Taylor Hall: 1.11
  • Jordan Eberle: 0.97
  • Mikko Koivu: 0.89
  • Ryan Nugent-Hopkins: 0.84

So, to recap: Taylor Hall is 21 years old and he's already in the ballpark of 29-year-old Zach Parise's best season. Parise makes $1.5 million more per year and the tail end of his contract is a cap recapture nightmare. Meanwhile, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins at age 20 has already basically matched 30-year-old Mikko Koivu's best-ever offensive season. The Wild are paying big money to some very good players who are past their prime years of production (historically around age 25). The Oilers are paying less money to players with better/even production just entering their prime.

Jon, you know as well as I do that there is more than posting scoring numbers to winning hockey games.

Koivu, for example, is an elite two way centre and Parise is the same.

I notice you didn't mention Suter in your boxcar comparison.

I agree those long contracts will be a nightmare for the Wild in another 5 years or so, but that's an entirely different issue.

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#9 drdoogie
September 19 2013, 09:28PM
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Okay, let's just stop with the constant comparisons to Chicago, Pittsburgh and every other good team that bottomed out. Did Vancouver, New Jersey and Boston bottom out for 5 straight years to eventually get them into the big dance over the past few years? Who cares how many young studs you have unless you actually see progression? Even if they manage to make the playoffs this year, the next year they may miss them again. So what?? Are people going to jump off the High Level bridge then?? Take a chill pill and enjoy the games and let the chips fall where they may. If the nerd that wrote this blog wants to profess to being the king wordsmith of northern alberta by disecting anyone that challenges his opinion, then I would suggest the words 'get a life' may apply here. Go Oil!!

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#10 DSF
September 19 2013, 03:57PM
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Romulus' Apotheosis wrote:

"Also worth noting that Hopkins is NOT Crosby. Hall is NOT Malkin and Eberle is NOT James Neal."

What's the cap hit difference for those players in 15/16?

5.2M

But the Oilers are not the Penguins, not even close, and the Penguins can't seem to win a cup having their team so top heavy in salaries.

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#11 DSF
September 19 2013, 10:19PM
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book¡e wrote:

Kadri at 22 appears to have reached a similar level to Hopkins at 19.

And?

Kadri outscored Hopkins last season 44-24.

Kadri was +15 on a dreadful possession team while Hopkins was only +3.

When Hopkins new deal kicks in, he'll be paid $6M while Kadri will make $2.9M.

Which team do you think has a tremendous competitive advantage in 2014/15?

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#12 DSF
September 19 2013, 03:39PM
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pkam wrote:

If I am correct, the cap is for 23 players, not 25. So if the Oilers commits 55M for 12 players, we only need to sign 11 (not 13) more players, with the remaining 11M.

Now let's look at the Penguins, consider a cup contender with the best GM. Here is the players they lock up for 2014-15 Crosby 8.7M Malkin 9.5M Neal 5.0M Dupuis 3.75M Kunitz 3.725M Martin 5.0M Letang 7.25M Scuderi 3.375M Fleury 5.0M Total 51.3M

How much is the cap James Mirtle projects for 2014-15, 64.3M? The pens have commit 51.3M on 9 players, so how are they going to sign 14 players with 13M if the Oilers can't sign 11 players with 11M?

Sorry...typo there corrected before your post showed up.

I agree the Penguins are in a similar situation and Shero has been very adept at filling out his roster with low priced options.

But remember he had to move Jordan Staal to make things work.

Also worth noting that Hopkins is NOT Crosby. Hall is NOT Malkin and Eberle is NOT James Neal.

But even with those players on board, the Penguins have not a won a cup since 2008/09 and haven't made it back to the finals since then.

I think you could make a pretty strong argument that the reason for that is that their support players are not good enough and Pittsburgh doesn't have the cap space to do anything about that.

A better comparable would be the Blackhawks who have their top players all below the Kane/Toews $6.3M contracts and an excellent group of young forwards playing on ELC's.

Even then, the Hawks are going to hit a cap crunch in the 2014/15 season when they have almost $60M committed to only 14 players.

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#13 DSF
September 19 2013, 10:10PM
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Racki wrote:

Carrying on with my rant about teams top 3 forwards...

PIT: Crosby, Malkin, Neal ($22.4M)

MIN: Parise, Koivu, Heatley ($21.79M)

CAR: Staalx2 , Semin ($21.25m)

WAS: Ovechkin, Backstrom, Laich ($20.7m)

ANA: Perry, Getzlaf, Koivu ($20.375m)

SJS: Thornton, Marleau, Burns (converted..) ($19.66M)

NYR: Nash, Richards, Callahan ($18.74M)

CHI: Kane, Toews, Sharp ($18.5M)

DET: Datsyuk, Zetterberg, Alfie ($18.2M)

TBL: Stamkos, St. Louis, Filppula ($18.125M)

EDM: Hall, Nuge, Eberle ($18M)

LAK: Kopitar, Richards, Carter ($17.82m)

CBJ: Gaborik, Horton, Umberger ($17.4M)

BOS: Lucic, Iginla, Krejci ( $17.25M)

VAN: Sedin, Sedin, Kesler ($17.2M)

DAL: Seguin, Horcoff, Benn ($16.5M)

OTT: Spezza, Ryan, Michalek ($16.43M)

NJD: Zajac, Elias, Clowe ($16.1M)

TOR: Kessel, Lupul, Clarkson ($15.9M)

BUF: Vanek, Leino, Hodgson ($15.89M)

COL: Stastny, O'Reilly, Parenteau ($15.6M)

WIN: Wheeler, Kane, Little ($15.5M)

PHX: Ribeiro, Doan, Vermette ($14.55M)

MTL: Plekanec, Gionta, Pacioretty ($14.5M)

CGY: Camalleri, Hudler, Jones ($14M)

PHI: Hartnell, Lecavalier, Voracek ($13.5M)

NSH: Legwand, Hornqvist, Fisher ($12.95M)

STL: Backes, Oshie, Stewart ($12.825M)

FLA: Fleischmann, Versteeg, Barkov ($12.48M)

NYI: Tavares, Bailey, Moulson ($11.93M)

League average is $15.8M. Oilers have the 11th most expensive forward trio. Is that terrible? Heck no, considering that the value on players constantly goes up, even though the cap went down, and the Oilers signed all 3 within the past year, approximately.

Also, the Oilers are just outside the top 3rd of the league for forwards.. closer more to the middle. So I consider that just fine, myself, for a team whose top 3 forwards are 23 at the oldest.

I think the Oilers are right in line with what these guys should be making. A lot of the teams on this list that have "bargain forwards" really actually just have CRAP forwards, or guys who are still on ELCs that will get paid, or they have money tied up elsewhere (such as Philly, who have most of their money in D).

I don't really think $18M for Hall, Eberle and Nuge is out of line at all.

Thing is...every team ahead of the Oilers on your list is also substantially better than the Oilers.

The closest is likely Minnesota who would have bought out Heatley if he wasn't injured.

The problem is the Oilers (barring trade) are locked into those contracts for many, many years while teams like Dallas, Colorado and Detroit have short term flexibility while the Olers will have none.

As stated earlier, the Oilers will be fine if they are adept enough to build a Stanley Cup winner in the next 7 years but, given how they will be in very tough to hire quality secondary players, that won't be easy.

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#14 DSF
September 19 2013, 10:21PM
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Time Travelling Sean wrote:

Is there? At 20 Kadri was still in the AHL, and RNH is a quality NHLer with 1 shoulder, imagine him with 1 and another enhanced/engineered one, plus he's growing into his body and getting more chemistry with Hall/Yak/Schultz.

RNH is going to improve offensively this year over last, not to mention carry over his improved defensive play.

If Kadri doesn't regress he'll be an excellent top 3 forward on most NHL teams, but he probably will.

Imagine Hopkins recovers from his surgery the same way Horcoff and Hemsky did.

In other words, he is a ghost of his former self.

It's a huge risk.

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#15 DSF
September 19 2013, 03:53PM
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Ducey wrote:

First, its tough to believe the cap will only go up $2 million in 2 years.

Second, if it doesn't go up then you can always trade someone.

If the cap does go up a significant amount (it certainly will over the next 7 years) then its a steal of a deal.

Capgeek says that they are at $36 million for 8 players (Hall, Perron, Nuge, Ebs, Smid Ference, Gordon, Gagner).

Add Yak at $6, Schultz, Petry and DD at $4M each, thats another $18 M and a total of $54 M for 12. $13M for 13 guys is certainly possible when you have your top 12 locked up.

People keep forgetting that the cap this season is artificially high.

The only reason is that it was negotiated that way in the new CBA so a ton of players weren't going to get thrown out of work.

Based on HRR and the players share dropping to 50%, the cap should be around $60M this season, not $64.3M.

Mirtle is projecting the cap to stay flat for the 2014/15 season (because under the CBA it can't drop below that figure) and then start rising.

One caveat on his projections is that they were based on the Canadian dollar at par but, in reality, it is now trading at 97 cents so they may be somewhat optimistic.

So, using a baseline of $60M, if the cap rises to $66M in 2014/15, that's significant.

Here's the article if you want a closer look.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/sports/hockey/globe-on-hockey/how-the-nhls-salary-cap-could-hit-90-million/article7029575/

As for your last point, $13M is NOT adequate for 13 guys unless you have just a ton of quality players on ELC's.

Given that Nurse would have a cap hit of $1.775M and Klefbom $1.244M, that would only leave $10M for 10 guys.

Players like Belov, Grebs and Larsen all run you more than $1M per

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#16 DSF
September 19 2013, 04:02PM
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Walter Sobchak wrote:

Not to jump on you, but did you not make the almost exact argument for the Minnesota Wild?

IIRC you argued a lot that the cap will go up at more than the rate you mentioned above.

I may be wrong, but I’m not sure that I am? However, I am too lazy to go looking up a rather pointless disagreement.

It is somewhat of an issue for the Wild but they (once Heatley is gone) will only have 3 players making more than $5M.

If Schultz and Yakupov get what I expect they will, the Oilers will have 5 players north of $5M with Gagner almost there at $4.8M.

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#17 DSF
September 19 2013, 10:14PM
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Racki wrote:

Detroit's "tonne of flexibility" is also the team that has the highest cap in the NHL.

Try and look farther than the end of your nose.

Detroit will have almost $19M in free cap space going into the 2014/15 season with all their core players locked up.

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#18 Oil Kings 'n' Pretty Things
September 19 2013, 03:14PM
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hallsyoilerforever5 wrote:

You're talking about a window of a winning a cup to end soon? I think you forgot to add in your canucks.

I don't often defend DSF's comments, but I think his comment is a fair one.

Additionally, the Canucks' window closing has nothing to do with the Oilers' window.

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#19 DSF
September 19 2013, 10:31PM
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Romulus' Apotheosis wrote:

You think that 22 year old shooting percentage over 48 games is going to last?

No, I don't either.

That's almost as unsustainable as a player who scores most of his points on the PP and can't score on the road.

Hopkins scored only 2 goals and 13 points at evens last season.

Kadri scored 13 goals and 36 points at evens.

Kadri scored 25 points on the road last season.

Hopkins scored 15.

Hopkins had 3:03 PPTOI/G last season.

Kadri was 2:12.

Conclusion:

Hopkins is a PP specialist who can be shut down on the road.

Kadri is a PPG player at evens and scored more points on the road than at home.

Go figure.

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#20 pkam
September 19 2013, 02:23PM
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Should lock him up for 8 years.

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#21 JJ
September 19 2013, 06:24PM
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pkam wrote:

Not a good idea in my opinion. You're basically saying he is not as good as Hall and Eberle. That 500K/year saving is not worth to piss off your 1st line center for the next 7 years.

Yea, I would really be pissed off too if I was only making 5.5 million a year.

Seriously, who comes up with this?

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#22 DSF
September 19 2013, 10:15PM
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pkam wrote:

Not sure how with your arguments you can come up with the conclusion that the Oilers window to win a cup will be very soon and very short.

Not saying I agree with your cap projection, but assuming you are correct, the Oilers will have a cap problem in 2015/16. But salary should go up after 2015/16 so our situation will improve with all the long term contracts. If we don't have enough cap space to sign another 11 players in 2015/16, we should be able to in 16/17 or 17/18 with the increase in salary cap and no increase in our long term contracts. So I don't understand why our window is very soon and short.

Another argument is many teams will have cap problem in 2015/16, and most of them will likely be worse than our situation. When there is not enough HRR to provide a higher cap, teams will have less money to sign their players and players will have to lower their asking price to get a contract. So 3rd and 4th line UFA will be more affordable.

Which teams?

Be specific.

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#23 mk
September 19 2013, 09:37PM
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@Romulus' Apotheosis

Wrong. The claim was that these deals were pieces in building a dynasty like the Blackhawks. My argument was that (irrespective of whether they achieve some sort of dynasty) the Oilers won't achieve the same things as the Hawks did.

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#24 Manfly
September 19 2013, 03:32PM
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DSF wrote:

Were they under discussion?

Try and stay on point Sparky.

the Canucks can be mentioned here if any poster desires to do so. is there a law against it? and you know he's right, that's why it bugs you so much...

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#25 mk
September 19 2013, 05:01PM
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@Craig1981

I don't think a comparison to the Blackhawks is apt at all. They were nearly a playoff team the first year with Toews/Kane, made a big run in the second year, and won in the third year.

The Oilers still haven't even made the playoffs and are starting: year 4 of Hall/Eberle, year 3 of RNH and year 2 of Yakupov.

Not to mention, Chicago had a SOLID D-core (traditionally taking more development time) before Toews/Kane/Hossa arrived. I think the Oilers are still at least 2 or 3 years from any real shot at a deep playoff run - that's a far cry from the Blackhawks model.

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#26 hallsyoilerforever5
September 19 2013, 03:13PM
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@DSF

You're talking about a window of a winning a cup to end soon? I think you forgot to add in your canucks.

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#27 Freewheeling Freddie
September 19 2013, 08:36PM
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Not many years ago the city was in tears because we couldn't afford the great Dougie Weight so we trade him .Also from that same era Cujo. Now we have potentially 5 players making 6 million. How times have changed. Nuge is a great player but the shoulder could be a major issue. Shoulder surgery before he is 20.Iam all for the players making good money but 6 million before you really haven't proved anything. The lockout was a waste of time, time to revamp the salary structure, but that will never happen because of the many weasel agents. Oh well 12 days to puck drop playoffs please.

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#28 Chris.
September 19 2013, 06:35PM
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@DSF

You bore me.

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#29 Racki
September 19 2013, 07:07PM
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The Oilers have 3 amazing players locked up for $18M per year (for the 3). This is on par with Getzlaf / Perry ($16.775M), Malkin/Crosby ($17.4M), Ovechkin/Backstrom ($16.2M). Nash and Richards combine for $14.5M, and I don't think they're any better than the kids here in Edm.

As you astute folks can tell, these are duos of players.. not trios.. duos of elite players that aren't far off from our trio of future elite players. Yes, some of those names are in the generational category, but my point is that these teams still manage to build a team around players with those giant cap hits.

The Oilers trio's cap hit is almost the same as Sharp, Kane and Toews. I'd say the trio aren't there yet by comparison, but I think they will be one day.. so that makes me comfy considering these guys had their deals made before (2010 for Kane/Toews, 2012 for Sharp). Inflation tells me that the Oiler trio should cost more...

Look at the Canucks.. they have RYAN KESLER at $5M, and LUONGO at $5.333M eating up cap space with modest production.

The Bruins have 6 guys under contract who earn an average together of just over 6M each (Chara, Rask, Lucic, Iginla, Krejci, Bergeron).

Capgeek is down right now, but I think there are several duos out there that are in the ballpark of $14M... and several MORE trios of players that add up to $18M.

So am I worried that we have 3 guys locked up for $18M cap hit total? Hell no, because that's on par with probably most competitive teams out there, however we have 3 elite players locked up at a young age for multiple years (which isn't something a lot of those other teams can say).

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#30 madjam
September 19 2013, 10:46PM
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Lots of teams were better than we were last year - but such will not be the case this year . Some newbies are looking good to improve our results . Currently Joensuu , Ference , Nurse and Perron add plenty to our new look . Nurse is top 2 right now with Ference until about 6 others can show they are better - which isn't happening so far . As Eaves alluded to , you earn your spot and Nurse has done that so far .

Others should all see vast improvement this year in results , effort and team play . This will be a breakout year , but most are so accustomed to watching us lose you'll probably miss the enjoyment of watching us surface until late in the year . Onward and upward .

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#31 Harry
September 19 2013, 11:21PM
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DSF wrote:

Imagine Hopkins recovers from his surgery the same way Horcoff and Hemsky did.

In other words, he is a ghost of his former self.

It's a huge risk.

Do you honestly think MacT or.anyone for that matter is stupid enough to give 40+mil to a guy who they think wont be healthy?

And Horcoff is garbage so please never bring up his name again

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#32 tileguy
September 20 2013, 09:06AM
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Perhaps the last word on the subject (doubtful)

Not one person here has thanked Tambo for setting the template for these great signings.

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#33 Dino
September 19 2013, 02:33PM
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Wow, awesome!

Hopefully he gets to celebrate by wearing his favorite Batman pj's and an extra helping of milk and cookies before bed! Heck, while you're at it, you might as well let the little guy stay up to watch Big Brother.

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#34 Oil Kings 'n' Pretty Things
September 19 2013, 02:41PM
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By my math, RNH will be just shy of his 21st birthday by the time this new contract expires. By then he should just be entering the prime of his career.

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#35 pkam
September 19 2013, 02:49PM
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Hayek wrote:

Ok deal, but after last season, would have been nice to get him at a discount, maybe something in the $5.5M per season range.

Probably not the greatest negotiation on MacT's part, but once Eberle was signed to an overpayment of $6M/season, RNH probably wouldn't settle for less.

Not a good idea in my opinion. You're basically saying he is not as good as Hall and Eberle. That 500K/year saving is not worth to piss off your 1st line center for the next 7 years.

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#36 Craig1981
September 19 2013, 03:12PM
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I am amazed at how everyone on the TSN comment box is slamming this signing.

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#37 pkam
September 19 2013, 03:20PM
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DSF wrote:

This contract and the Schultz/Yakupov deals to follow pretty much signifies the Oilers window to win a cup will be very soon and very short.

If Schultz gets, say, $5M and Yakupov gets $6M (both very likely IMO), Petry gets $3.5M and Dubnyk gets $4M, the Oilers will need to have many players on ELC's just to get under the cap in 2015/16.

If those numbers above are close to accurate, the Oilers will have about $55M committed to the cap with only 12 players under contract.

If James Mirtle's salary cap projections for 2015/16 are accurate, the cap will be around $66M.

That means the Oilers will only have $11M to sign another 11 players.

That dog won't hunt.

If I am correct, the cap is for 23 players, not 25. So if the Oilers commits 55M for 12 players, we only need to sign 11 (not 13) more players, with the remaining 11M.

Now let's look at the Penguins, consider a cup contender with the best GM. Here is the players they lock up for 2014-15 Crosby 8.7M Malkin 9.5M Neal 5.0M Dupuis 3.75M Kunitz 3.725M Martin 5.0M Letang 7.25M Scuderi 3.375M Fleury 5.0M Total 51.3M

How much is the cap James Mirtle projects for 2014-15, 64.3M? The pens have commit 51.3M on 9 players, so how are they going to sign 14 players with 13M if the Oilers can't sign 11 players with 11M?

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#38 ed in edmonton
September 19 2013, 04:08PM
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I'm enough of a pessimist that I would have preferred RNH to show us the beef after his surgery than signing now. Hopefully MacT will prove to be a better seer than I.

It would appear to me that the teams who have been consistently good in the cap world (Pittsburgh, Boston, Chicago) have locked up a core group and filled around them as best they can. This doesn't mean they don't have to shed salary at times. Chicago had to do it big time after their penultimate cup but rebounded within 3 years to grab another.

Best case scenario will be the Oil needing to make some tough cap decisions in a few years because of the wealth of talent. That is how the system is supposed to work.

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#39 French Toast Mafia
September 19 2013, 04:46PM
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@DSF

You would take Koivu over RNH on your club?

Would you want 29 year old Parise at 7.5 per over 21 year old Hall at 6 million per?

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#40 Harry
September 19 2013, 08:19PM
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Jonathan Willis wrote:

soph - ist - ry, noun. The use of fallacious arguments, esp. with the intention of deceiving.

For example: "Once Heatley leaves, the Wild will have only three players making more than $5.0 million; the Oilers will have five."

Why is it sophistry? Because while true, it misleads. This sentence, for example, is equally true, and just as misleading: "The Wild have four players making $6.75 million or more. The Oilers have none."

Man im glad you have a way with words to.deal.with this troll. Lord know I dont have the patients.

Just like im putting complete trust in MacT.

Furthermore I see JShultz hopefully getting a Subban type deal.

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#41 Woogie63
September 19 2013, 11:02PM
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Wow this is a long term for a player coming off a bad year. Two injury in two years....i think RNH was 142 in league scoring last year.

It feels like a little to fast to tie up that much term when you could have taken 40 or 80 games to understand if want to be "married" for the next 560 games.

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#42 pkam
September 20 2013, 12:14AM
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JJ wrote:

Nuge is now making more than John Tavares.. What are the Oilers thinking? Should have given them all 5m contracts but they caved in too early.

Who here would rather have Nuge than Tavares on their team? Exactly. Terrible overpayment for a fragile and soft center.

Anyone who has some hockey knowledge will not write a comment like this.

Do I want Taveres at 5.5M over RNH? You bet.

The fact is Taveres at 5.5M is the best NHL bargain. Any contract compares to his is an overpayment.

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#43 Smythyyy
September 20 2013, 01:48AM
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DSF wrote:

Would they?

There is a pretty strong argument that Kadri is at least as good as Hopkins.

Hah! This was a good laugh. Please do humor us and let us hear you explain why Kadri is at least as good as RNH. Are you basing it on Kadri's one good year last year? If that's your case then you have an even worse eye for talent than I initially thought.

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#44 michael
September 20 2013, 08:15AM
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Romulus' Apotheosis wrote:

Mirtle is giving a conservative estimate, with growth at 5% per year, while noting growth during the past CBA averaged 7.2%.

Either way, it's not a problem, but we should acknowledge he is already projecting a conservative estimate and it is probably more likely to be rosy than bleak going forward.

Very conservative in my opinion. Its like the Alberta Government saying its only going to cost 5 billion to rebuild after this seasons floods in Southern Alberta. Or that the price of Oil will be 70 a barrel in their budjet when its 106. Even the bitumen bubble still increases the revenue by 15-20 % in revenue to the province.

Pundits will usually err on the side of caution when talking about something that is not known. I don't disagree with that thinking. But when were talking about HHR and suchlike the projections are so far flung and diverse that you could not get 2 people to agree as to what the cap will be in 1 year never ming 3 years from now. Who knows how the world economy will play out.

MacT is smart. He has an MBA. For those who don't know that is a Masters in Buisness Administration. I suppose he might know a thing or three about economics and suchlike. I think I'll put my faith in MacT rather James Mirtles pie in the sky predictions. MacT might have a better sense/knowledge of where the cap is going considering he is an NHL GM.

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#45 They're $hittie
September 20 2013, 09:36AM
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tileguy wrote:

Perhaps the last word on the subject (doubtful)

Not one person here has thanked Tambo for setting the template for these great signings.

That is becuase the Template would have been good if only Hall got 6 and Eberle didnt. If Eberle was at 5.3 than Gagner would have been cheaper, and there would have been a possibility of getting Nuge for slightly less. Now if Yak gets a 50 point season he will also get 6M. I dont have a problem with the number ones getting 6M. The problem was Eberle got overpaid based on one year which set a precedent for the next guys saying here is 6M no matter how you play. IF we could have saved 700K on Eberle, 350K more on Gagner, 300K on Nuge; and possibly see where to save on Yak (pending his performance) that could be an extra 1.5 - 2M dollars.

Nuge is good and will cover the bet. the problem is the message is set that you dont need to perform to get paid. We are paying based on pedigree.

Oh and Kadri? Gimme a f#(@ing break.

EDIT: the 6M internal cap could have been set with just Hall. Didnt need he and Eberle both to set it. Particularly with Nuge ready the next year for it.

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#46 OilFanInVan
September 19 2013, 02:12PM
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Boom!

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#47 EHH Team
September 19 2013, 02:13PM
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Hot Damn!!

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#48 Batfink
September 19 2013, 02:15PM
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Nuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuge!

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#49 The Towel Boy
September 19 2013, 02:28PM
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Quality dollars. Quality term. Quality player. Quality. Lots of it.

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#50 bazmagoo
September 19 2013, 02:38PM
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Mikey wrote:

So what will Justin get? And I pray that the cap keeps going up.

I have a feeling Justin gets a bridge contract like a lot of young defenders seem to be getting these days. Two years at 3.5 million, keeps him RFA at the end of the two years. Just a hunch.

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