The Betting Line

Jonathan Willis
September 20 2013 10:57AM

Yesterday, gambling website Bovada set their over/under numbers for five of the Oilers’ best forwards. Where do they see those players landing?

The List

  • Taylor Hall: 74-1/2 points
  • Taylor Hall: 30-1/2 goals
  • Jordan Eberle: 67-1/2 points
  • Nail Yakupov: 58-1/2 points
  • Sam Gagner: 54-1/2 points
  • David Perron: 48-1/2 points

Additionally, Hall was placed at 30-1 to win the Hart Trophy as league MVP and the ‘Rocket’ Richard Trophy as the best goal-scorer. Hall (40-1) and Eberle (85-1) were both given odds on the Art Ross Trophy as the NHL’s leading point-scorer, while Justin Schultz is considered a 30-1 shot for the Norris Trophy.

Surprises?

The list above is extremely unsurprising. The Gagner and Perron and Eberle are expected to produce at roughly their career rate. Yakupov is given a modest bump here from last season; likely his play improves but I doubt he’s a career 21.0% shooter and it seems the fellows setting the odds agree with that.

If there is a surprise, it’s Hall. On his career, he has scored at a 70 points/82 games pace, but last season he scored at a full-season pace of 91 points. Bovada’s forecasting a fall; why might they do that?

Health is a possibility. Hall missed significant time to injury in his first two seasons, and though he looked good coming off shoulder surgery last year it’s fair to wonder whether his penchant for risking his body to advance the play might not result in more time missed.

There’s also a statistical red flag – IPP, or individual points percentage. Basically, that statistic refers to the number of even-strength points divided by even-strength goals for on. At its best, it shows us which players are really driving the play, but it’s also highly variable – when I looked for repeatability it fluctuated almost as much as shooting percentage. Last year, Hall had a huge season, picking up points on 94 percent of the goals scored when he was on the ice; in the two years prior he was hovering around 70 percent. If we assume it was a one-off, and that he’s closer to his career IPP rate, he drops from a 91 points/82 games pace down to 80 points per 82 games.

Combine that points fall with a bit of ill-health and suddenly 75 points looks like a pretty reasonable line in the sand, assuming that Hall doesn’t take yet another step forward. I’m personally inclined to be a little more bullish on Hall, but than I’m not putting my money on the line. The guys who do have set 75 points as their reasonable expectation for Hall; it’s going to be interesting to see how close they come.

Recently around the Nation Network

First, a quick reminder: StreakCred is free for the pre-season - sign up to win not only real money but also something far more valuable: NationGear. 

According to Darren Dreger, the Toronto Maple Leafs may be interested in moving Joe Colborne. Cam Charron talks about what it all means and what Colborne has to offer at Leafs Nation:

Joe Colborne is 23 and has just 16 NHL games to his credit. He's taken just 12 shots and has a single goal. While it was his excellence at the AHL-level and likelihood to make the NHL roster this season that had us rank Colborne almost universally at No. 2 in our prospect rankings, he doesn't have the track record in his previous call-ups as, say, Nazem Kadri did, to guarantee at full-time job.

Click the link above to read more, or feel free to check out some of my recent stuff below:

74b7cedc5d8bfbe88cf071309e98d2c3
Jonathan Willis is a freelance writer. He currently works for Oilers Nation, Sportsnet, the Edmonton Journal and Bleacher Report. He's co-written three books and worked for myriad websites, including Grantland, ESPN, The Score, and Hockey Prospectus. He was previously the founder and managing editor of Copper & Blue.
Avatar
#1 John Chambers
September 20 2013, 11:03AM
Trash it!
2
trashes
Cheers
3
cheers

Over on Hall's goals.

Under on Yakupov's points. Under on Gagner's points.

Too bad no RNH prediction due to injury. I'm bullish on him and guess he would pass 70 / 82 games.

Avatar
#2 Oiler Al
September 20 2013, 11:16AM
Trash it!
6
trashes
Cheers
4
cheers

Fall on Hall... maybe the boys in Vegas don't like him playing the center position, or possibly the idea of Hemsky being on his wing, might have a factor.

Avatar
#3 DSF
September 20 2013, 11:16AM
Trash it!
8
trashes
Cheers
47
cheers

Bovada seems to be basing the projection for Perron based on his performance in STL.

I would think now that he's not playing Hitchcock's system, he has a good chance to hit 60 points.

Avatar
#4 Craig1981
September 20 2013, 11:18AM
Trash it!
24
trashes
Cheers
8
cheers

Ok DSF and QSBallet put your money where your mouth is. Take you parents allowances and place under on all 5 oilers and send us the printed recite.

Avatar
#5 Old Retired Guy (A.K.A. Die-Nasty)
September 20 2013, 11:20AM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
4
cheers

Ill take the over on all of them.......heck ill even take the over on Dubnyk whatever they forecast for his point total!!!

Avatar
#6 Oil Kings 'n' Pretty Things
September 20 2013, 11:20AM
Trash it!
2
trashes
Cheers
35
cheers
DSF wrote:

Bovada seems to be basing the projection for Perron based on his performance in STL.

I would think now that he's not playing Hitchcock's system, he has a good chance to hit 60 points.

Here's one for the history books. You're getting dangerously close to an optimistic outlook with this comment, DSF.

Avatar
#7 DSF
September 20 2013, 11:21AM
Trash it!
25
trashes
Cheers
24
cheers
Oil Kings 'n' Pretty Things wrote:

Here's one for the history books. You're getting dangerously close to an optimistic outlook with this comment, DSF.

Always call em as I see em.

Avatar
#8 Smokey
September 20 2013, 11:30AM
Trash it!
1
trashes
Cheers
13
cheers

Taylor Hall's a top ten to fifteen NHL player now. I'm fine with pundits in TO not noticing. When I see fantasy lists where he is not in the top 20, I just laugh. He was generally healthy last year. Lost 2 games to killing Cal Buttercup, but other then that I expect 70-75 games outta him and a suspension or two.

Avatar
#9 brian_d
September 20 2013, 11:32AM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
9
cheers

Having 2 guys on point-per-game pace or more this year would be the dream, wouldn't it?

Avatar
#10 The Oilers Shot Clock
September 20 2013, 11:33AM
Trash it!
1
trashes
Cheers
4
cheers
DSF wrote:

Bovada seems to be basing the projection for Perron based on his performance in STL.

I would think now that he's not playing Hitchcock's system, he has a good chance to hit 60 points.

That's the first thing that jumped out at me too. I wouldn't hesitate to take the over on Perron. If Gambling was legal here I think I'd actually place that. It's too bad they didn't have Hemsky ranked. I'm guessing he would be ranked at a very polarizing 50 points and people leaning both ways would be scared to bet on it.

Avatar
#11 Cody anderson
September 20 2013, 11:34AM
Trash it!
3
trashes
Cheers
6
cheers

I love Hall, but the longer Nuge is out the worse start he will get to the season. If he centers Hemsky and Smyth for a month I would actually guess they might be high on Hall getting 74.5 points.

Avatar
#12 Romulus' Apotheosis
September 20 2013, 11:36AM
Trash it!
5
trashes
Cheers
5
cheers

Am I the only one who find it odd that they all score a 1/2 point?

Avatar
#13 Ducey
September 20 2013, 11:36AM
Trash it!
4
trashes
Cheers
17
cheers
DSF wrote:

Always call em as I see em.

You might look into some new glasses :)

Avatar
#14 DSF
September 20 2013, 11:37AM
Trash it!
6
trashes
Cheers
8
cheers
The Oilers Shot Clock wrote:

That's the first thing that jumped out at me too. I wouldn't hesitate to take the over on Perron. If Gambling was legal here I think I'd actually place that. It's too bad they didn't have Hemsky ranked. I'm guessing he would be ranked at a very polarizing 50 points and people leaning both ways would be scared to bet on it.

The biggest issue with Hemsky will be injury and the likelihood he gets less PP time.

Betting under 50 would likely be a good bet.

Avatar
#15 Romulus' Apotheosis
September 20 2013, 11:37AM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
2
cheers

For reference, here's LT's RE series totals for this year

http://lowetide.ca/blog/2013/08/reasonable-expectations-scoring-13-14-more-offense.html

Avatar
#16 DSF
September 20 2013, 11:38AM
Trash it!
5
trashes
Cheers
10
cheers
Romulus' Apotheosis wrote:

Am I the only one who find it odd that they all score a 1/2 point?

No.

They want you to bet over or under.

Avatar
#17 The Oilers Shot Clock
September 20 2013, 11:40AM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers

@Romulus' Apotheosis

There's no shootout.

Avatar
#18 Ducey
September 20 2013, 11:43AM
Trash it!
1
trashes
Cheers
7
cheers

Colborne might be a nice fit for the Oilers.

6'5", 213 lbs, decent point totals in the AHL (42 pts in 65 games), has played under Eakins, and is a center.

If he can win a faceoff and play in his own end he likely would be an upgrade on Lander or Acton.

Given he has to clear waivers, he shouldn't cost much.

Avatar
#19 Romulus' Apotheosis
September 20 2013, 11:47AM
Trash it!
18
trashes
Cheers
1
cheers
DSF wrote:

No.

They want you to bet over or under.

Explain how I can bet over/under on 2.5 and not on 2 or 3?

Avatar
#20 The Oilers Shot Clock
September 20 2013, 11:48AM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
5
cheers
Ducey wrote:

Colborne might be a nice fit for the Oilers.

6'5", 213 lbs, decent point totals in the AHL (42 pts in 65 games), has played under Eakins, and is a center.

If he can win a faceoff and play in his own end he likely would be an upgrade on Lander or Acton.

Given he has to clear waivers, he shouldn't cost much.

I dunno, he's treading in that grey area between prospect and reclamation project. Depends what it cost I suppose. It's not like we are deep there in OKC too I guess.

Avatar
#21 Craig1981
September 20 2013, 11:51AM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
10
cheers
Romulus' Apotheosis wrote:

Explain how I can bet over/under on 2.5 and not on 2 or 3?

there is a 1/2 so there is no tie. if you be on a 2.5 and the result came out a 2 its under a 3 its over..........if it was a 2 and the result came a 2 it wouldn't work since it would be neither and over or an under

Avatar
#22 Kodiak
September 20 2013, 11:53AM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers

I agree with previous posters that if Hall plays center for the first month, he will be concentrating on D more and won't be racking up the points.

Eberle is looking really good already. I'd pick the over on him and Perron and under on everything else.

Avatar
#23 DSF
September 20 2013, 11:54AM
Trash it!
2
trashes
Cheers
14
cheers

Bovada also has updated odds on team point totals:

Pacific:

LAK - 98.5

VCR - 95.5

SJS - 94.5

ANA - 90.5

EDM - 89.5

PHX - 85.5

CAL - 74.5

Central:

CHI - 105.5

STL - 99.5

MIN - 94.5

DAL - 86.5

COL - 86.5

NSH - 84.5

WPG - 82.5

So, if the division winners perform as expected the wildcard race looks like this:

ANA - 90.5

EDM - 89.5

------------------------

DAL - 86.5

COL - 86.5

PHX - 85.5

NSH - 84.5

WPG - 82.5

CAL - 74.5

Avatar
#24 oilerjed
September 20 2013, 11:56AM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
2
cheers
Cody anderson wrote:

I love Hall, but the longer Nuge is out the worse start he will get to the season. If he centers Hemsky and Smyth for a month I would actually guess they might be high on Hall getting 74.5 points.

Or center will be something that he excels at. There is no way that I can imagine Hall centering that line, why put an anchor on your speed boat? As for the over under Hall-over(90) Ebs -over(75) Perron-over Yak-under (25-30g 20A) Gags-under (20g-30A)

But IF they stay healthy they could all very easily be over.

Avatar
#25 Romulus' Apotheosis
September 20 2013, 11:57AM
Trash it!
1
trashes
Cheers
3
cheers
Craig1981 wrote:

there is a 1/2 so there is no tie. if you be on a 2.5 and the result came out a 2 its under a 3 its over..........if it was a 2 and the result came a 2 it wouldn't work since it would be neither and over or an under

Ah! I see.

I thought they had some math equation that came up with projected fractions for all the players and it seemed very curious they would all land at .5.

I also, obviously, don't gamble and was under the impression getting something "on the nose" as it were would be an obvious win.

Avatar
#26 Jeffff
September 20 2013, 11:58AM
Trash it!
7
trashes
Cheers
6
cheers
DSF wrote:

Always call em as I see em.

The truth is often unpopular, but it is never wrong

Avatar
#27 The Oilers Shot Clock
September 20 2013, 12:08PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers

I would take the over on Nashville in a heartbeat.

Avatar
#28 DSF
September 20 2013, 12:20PM
Trash it!
5
trashes
Cheers
5
cheers

Yeah, I would too.

And I think they may under rating Dallas.

The Russian kid has been electric.

Avatar
#29 Rama Lama
September 20 2013, 12:35PM
Trash it!
1
trashes
Cheers
3
cheers

Now that all the Oilers are healthy, with some of the new additions, and a new coach and his systems........the young guns will produce like never before.

Last year was a mess on so many levels.......this years team has depth and that fact alone shoud see sustained momentum not change much with regular season injuries. The call-up will offer so much more to offer.......very exciting.

Avatar
#30 The Last Big Bear
September 20 2013, 12:40PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers

I wouldn't bet in either direction for any of these, which means I pretty much agree completely with their projections.

(edit: the player point projections, I mean)

Avatar
#31 Danger pay
September 20 2013, 12:55PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
1
cheers
Romulus' Apotheosis wrote:

Am I the only one who find it odd that they all score a 1/2 point?

The half point is so that the bet is not a push or tie.

Avatar
#32 Walter Sobchak
September 20 2013, 01:48PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
6
cheers

I would take Hall over on both points and goals.

Eberle under

Yakupov is a wash, to close to call on that one.

Gagner over if he center's for Yakupov and Peron.

Peron definitely over

Avatar
#33 106 and 106
September 20 2013, 01:55PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
6
cheers

The last $6 MM Centre we employed was Horcoff, for craps sake. Not sure why TSN's comment crowd are all negative nelly's on the signing.

Haters gonna hate.

Avatar
#34 Dog Train
September 20 2013, 03:04PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers

I would take the over on Hall regardless of if he is playing in the middle or on the wing. He will make whoever he plays with better and will get plenty of points on the PP. The only issue is injury of course but he was mostly healthy last season and anybody is capable of getting injured.

Avatar
#35 John Chambers
September 20 2013, 03:25PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
1
cheers
The Oilers Shot Clock wrote:

I would take the over on Nashville in a heartbeat.

And the under on Colorado. That defense is putrid.

The two seasons where the Oilers bottomed out they had a measley 62 points. My guess is that Calgary gets closer to that mark than the 74.5 Bovada suggests.

Avatar
#36 Zipdot
September 20 2013, 03:26PM
Trash it!
1
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers

What kind of people bet on how many points a player will make? That actually sounds like a fun bet. But like, are there like professional bettors who place bets like that?

Avatar
#37 Zipdot
September 20 2013, 03:29PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers
Jeffff wrote:

The truth is often unpopular, but it is never wrong

Sometimes it's "out there", though.

Avatar
#38 John Chambers
September 20 2013, 03:45PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers
Zipdot wrote:

What kind of people bet on how many points a player will make? That actually sounds like a fun bet. But like, are there like professional bettors who place bets like that?

You can actually bet on the likelihood of world leaders getting assassinated, election results, economies collapsing, natural disasters, and the results of High School basketball games in Kentucky.

If you know how to push the odds in your favour, you can become a very wealthy individual.

Avatar
#39 Oilers4ever
September 21 2013, 08:08AM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers

If Hallsy stays healthy all year I think he can push 100 points. He's that good. I also think Yak has a chance at 40 goals provided he's not playing 3rd line minutes. And Ebs will push 80 points this year. When's the last time the Oilers had 3 players pushing 80 points plus. I can't remember that.

Comments are closed for this article.