GDB 48.0: MARKET BOTTOM

Wanye
January 12 2014 02:51PM

After watching the Mighty Oilers beat the Pens in an impressive fashion some of us find ourselves wondering if that level of compete and compelling victory are a one time aberration or a sign of things to come. It was a grand time on Friday night, with rarely seen "hooting" "hollering" and "legitimate excitement" felt by many Oilers fans. 

The team that came back in the third period was an entirely different squadron than we have seen on many a night and they need to be seen more often. And quick.

CALLING MARKET BOTTOM

 

The Oilers are a business and any business is subject to cycles. The Oil spectacularly peaked early on in the NHL and it seems as though Oilers fans have paid for every championship calibre game in the 80s with an equal period of terribility in the 10s. The Oil have since averaged out early market dominating performance with a trough so long you can see it from space. But this is where you have to look at the long game. You see? The Oilers aren't so bad when you look at them on a long enough time horizon. You just need to take an average of the last 500 years!

(gunshot)

If you look at the Oilers as a business it's staggering to think that the Oilers have easily spent over $400 million on salaries since they last made the playoffs and haven't seen a second of post season action for their buck. That's an eye popping sum that Kay-Z has sent out the door and with nothing coming back in return. Brutal.

But as is the case with any stock, good money is made by calling a market bottom. That's the time the savvy investor takes a look at the fundamentals of the business and decides if the worst is behind the company and brighter days lay ahead. Has the market changed? Has the business made significant changes? Are there new key executives involved who understand the issues they face and have a plan to turn things around?

Even the most pissed off Oilers fan will grudgingly admit the Oilers are a  much better team than they were anywhere between 2007-11. And though recent changes to Coach and GM have frustratingly yet to bear fruit it is way too soon to call for the heads of Eakins and MacT. We actually like where Mac T's head these days, having read a mile long interview with him this afternoon.

As Robin Brownlee pointed out, David Staples has a massive 4 part interview with MacT over at the Edmonton Journal that is one of the better Oilers pieces we can recall for awhile. For someone trying to gauge if the Oilers are anywhere near coming off market bottom we offer the words of the man charged with turning the business around:

"When I took over my one mandate was to turn this team over to the guys who are ultimately going to lead us out of this, and that was largely the draft choices, Taylor, Nugent-Hopkins, Eberle, and put them in very prominent positions. No hiding them in the match-ups. Turning them loose to the toughest match ups. And at the start of this year, that didn’t go well. It went poorly. But I believe strongly failure is a great motivator. I think that those failures really helped those players try and restructure their game and the way they think the game and some of the decision making that they make during a game."

Bear in mind that the title of the article itself quotes MacT saying "I'm not arguing that were close were not" but if you read the entire interview it's immediately clear that MacT is infinitely more on the ball than our dear Tambellini ever was and he seems to understand the issues crippling his business even if he has yet to do anything significant to address them. As an MBA grad one would hope he applies all that book learnin and starts making some moves soon.

It may not be market bottom for the Oilers yet - but a few more confidence building wins like the one against the Penguins and it may be closer than it feels most days.

GAME DAY

And so flush with the temporary confidence that comes from beating the Penguins the Oilers face off with the Chicago Blackhawks today in Chicago. How good are the Hawks? Very. How good are the Oil? Somewhere between terrible and brutal. But the Pens are on a 7-2-1 streak in their past 10 and the Oil can pat themselves on the back for providing half of those losses.

Believe it or not the Oilers are 4-2-1 in last 7 trips to Chicago. A win tonight would be their third win in their last 4 games all against the top 9 teams in the NHL. Hmm. You never know.

OILERS LINES

The Oilers have yet to tweet their lineups but as of 2:50 PM the lines are as follows according to DailyFaceOff.com. Please shoot any updates into the comments as they are released and keep us all on top of the very latest. 

 

HAWKS LINES

 

The Hawks have also yet to finalize their lines as of press time but the latest combinations are presented here.

PREDICTIONS

GAME DAY PREDICTION: Oh what the hell. The Oilers win 4-3, causing hundreds of thousands of Oilers fans petitioning the United Nations for Kevin Lowe's resignation to stop their protest for a brief moment in celebration before resuming their cause in earnest.

OBVIOUS GAME DAY PREDICTION: Jordan Eberle scores 2 goals and hundreds of new Oilers fans are born exactly 9 months from today as a result of worldwide jubilation immediately after the game.

NOT-SO-OBVIOUS GAME DAY PREDICTION: Fresh off a 2 goal game, The Nuge has a 3 point night. Although he has had one hell of a weekend he still reports to Grade 1 classes on Monday morning like every other student in his class. Full of youthful energy and wonder and delicious victory pie.

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Blog so hard motherf**ckers try and find me. Email me at wanyegretz@gmail.com or tweet me @wanyegretz provided it is about Jordan Eberle or babes.
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#51 vetinari
January 12 2014, 06:35PM
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Frenchy wrote:

Playing their backup isn't disrespectful, not playing anyone in net would be disrespectful

We would at least be competitive...

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#52 MessyEH
January 12 2014, 08:03PM
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Maybe one of the writers here can do a "Where are they now?" Piece.

Something to really rub our noses into how bad Kblowe has messed this franchise up.

I think a team composed of former Oilers playing in the NHL, would be able to beat our current roster.

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#53 Robin Brownlee
January 12 2014, 03:05PM
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TRIFECTA!!!!!!

. . . nerds

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#54 **
January 12 2014, 03:40PM
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"If you look at the Oilers as a business it's staggering to think that the Oilers have easily spent over $400 million on salaries since they last made the playoffs and haven't seen a second of post season action for their buck. That's an eye popping sum that Kay-Z has sent out the door and with nothing coming back in return. Brutal."

What if I told you the franchise value of the Oilers has tripled since Katz took over?

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#55 @Oilanderp
January 12 2014, 04:32PM
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Man... is that the kind of devil music the kids are listening to these days? It's completely.. oh hold on...

GET THE HELL AWAY FROM MY APPLE TREES YOU SONSOBEECHES!!!

*shakes fist*

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#56 Saywhat??
January 12 2014, 04:47PM
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** wrote:

Oilers lose all season and nobody panics, they win against the penguins and everyone loses their minds!!!

I'm flabbergasted by comments such as these. "Nobody's panicking"?! Have you been living under a damn rock?!?! Nobody in edmonton is disillusioned enough to think this season is going well. Have you been reading the comments on these blogs?? Have you been listening to the call in shows?! If anything fans have been too panicky, screaming about falling sky and demanding knee jerk reaction trades that either make little sense or are trades no sane gm would ever make. And yet you feel the need to fabricate this reality where you are the sole arbitrator of truth, and can see how bad the oilers are while all us mortals bumble around in ignorant bliss. Just because some of us see some positives in beating one of the best teams in the league. Well excuse us for seeing small silver linings on what has been a very dark season.

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#57 Alsker
January 12 2014, 06:16PM
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Devolution wrote:

I have been coming here for three years and have never once called out a player but, my god, can someone tell me what Sam Gagner brings to this team?

4.8 mill of capspace use. Other than that, pfft, your guess is as good as mine.

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#58 Anton
January 12 2014, 06:27PM
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So that's Oilers second SHG this year.

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#59 Jay
January 12 2014, 06:56PM
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@Jay

*played... Oops, I pulled a dubnyk and miss played my keyboard

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#60 **
January 12 2014, 06:58PM
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Saywhat?? wrote:

I'm flabbergasted by comments such as these. "Nobody's panicking"?! Have you been living under a damn rock?!?! Nobody in edmonton is disillusioned enough to think this season is going well. Have you been reading the comments on these blogs?? Have you been listening to the call in shows?! If anything fans have been too panicky, screaming about falling sky and demanding knee jerk reaction trades that either make little sense or are trades no sane gm would ever make. And yet you feel the need to fabricate this reality where you are the sole arbitrator of truth, and can see how bad the oilers are while all us mortals bumble around in ignorant bliss. Just because some of us see some positives in beating one of the best teams in the league. Well excuse us for seeing small silver linings on what has been a very dark season.

I was just trying to force a joker quote. Apparently I did a poor job. I guess what I was trying to say is that the Oilers are milking that win for all its worth. I personally need much more than that to raise my current expectations about the performance of this team.

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#61 **
January 12 2014, 08:04PM
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Harry wrote:

You are exactly the type of fan Katz and Lowe love. Blind and without a spine

It's probably just their family members and cronies. One can only hope.

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#62 **
January 12 2014, 08:08PM
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Max wrote:

1 - I never read/listen to negativity re the Oilers 2 - So that eliminates Robin Brownlee, Edmonton Sun and David Staples' articles 3 - I adore my team, have done for 25 years since I came to Canada 4 - In another life I'd have been married to MacT 5 - In this life I am extremely happily married and I am an eternal optimist re my Oilers 6 - And tonight? Sam will break out - again - and we will win 7 - Oh - did I mention I am an eternal optimist?

This has to be the most WTF comment I've ever read on this site.

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#63 Old Retired Guy (A.K.A. Die-Nasty)
January 12 2014, 03:22PM
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Aberration in Oilersnation!

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#64 Jay
January 12 2014, 05:54PM
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Don't get Mad or loose faith guys, they just need more time... More time.... More time.... We're close.... We have lots of potential.... Just keep waiting..., progress is overrate.... This is getting way past ridiculous now!

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#65 Serious Gord
January 12 2014, 05:58PM
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Fer chrissake he has an EXECUTIVE MBA. That is hardly a shadow of a true MBA and does little to impress those who know better.

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#66 Drowning in Oil
January 12 2014, 07:55PM
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RexHolez wrote:

Hey Kevin Lowe haters, how about giving the guy a little credit for still trying!! I mean lets say you were trying to learn how to ride a bike, and for 8 years you just keep falling everytime you try. would you even bother anymore?? Sure he might be completely incapable, but atleast he's still trying right?

One of the stupidest comments on here in a while......

THE NHL IS NOT THE KIND OF BUSINESS WHERE "TRYING" IS GOOD ENOUGH. THERE IS A REASON THERE IS SO MUCH TURNOVER IN PROFESSIONAL SPORTS AND IT ISN'T BECAUSE PEOPLE AREN'T TRYING. IT IS BECAUSE THEY DON'T WIN!! UNFORTUNATELY WINNING MEANS NOTHING TO THIS OWNER SO IN THIS CASE AND THIS CASE ALONE, "TRYING" SEEMS TO BE ENOUGH TO KEEP A JOB!!!

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#67 Rubber
January 12 2014, 08:15PM
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@6 ring circus

Here's interesting stat that I can't believe the Oilers office hasn't taken note of. Number of times a team plays the Flames and then plays the Oilers the very next night: 2 Number of times a team plays the Oilers and then plays the Flames the very next night: 10

This is not just an oddity this season. I noticed the same imbalance last season.

Are we chopped liver?

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#68 Reach Advantage
January 12 2014, 03:34PM
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Wanye, please bring in Kevin McCartney to write for Oilersnation. He's even an Oiler fan!

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#69 Oliveoiler
January 12 2014, 03:40PM
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BTW - I was at the game when Sam got his 8 points - I will quote the late great Humphrey Bogart """play it again Sam"""

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#70 6 ring circus
January 12 2014, 05:04PM
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"Bear in mind that the title of the article itself quotes MacT saying "I'm not arguing that were close were not" but if you read the entire interview it's immediately clear that MacT is infinitely more on the ball than our dear Tambellini ever was and he seems to understand the issues crippling his business even if he has yet to do anything significant to address them. As an MBA grad one would hope he applies all that book learnin and starts making some moves soon."

Marge the monkey could've done a better job than Tambellini!!! The idiot who hired Tambellini should be fired to.

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#71 seanjohn667
January 12 2014, 05:13PM
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MacT is better than Tambo, and they will eventually get better. But, I think he is making a mistake if he thinks the fans (and some core players) are willing to wait for Nurse, Klefbom and perhaps Ekblad. If he doesn't improve the D, and the whole lineup, this summer, 2014/15 in the basement maybe the final straw for many fans and for Hall. He's got to throw these kids a bone.

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#72 Gk1980
January 12 2014, 06:10PM
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Oilers do not have any answer to a oppositions push back. When a team decides to press Edmonton hey seem to do it with ease. Why don't the oilers play pissed off once in awhile? Hit, and just be mean. I miss that hockey. These guys need to attend military boot camp this summer.

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#73 Jay
January 12 2014, 06:13PM
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Alsker wrote:

That was a shot DD must stop. Stand up and wait for the shot already.

Must stop and dubnyk don't belong in the Same sentence

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#74 Jay
January 12 2014, 06:14PM
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Devolution wrote:

I have been coming here for three years and have never once called out a player but, my god, can someone tell me what Sam Gagner brings to this team?

3.5 mil cap hit, NTC and a new goat for the fans to replace Horcoff

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#75 vetinari
January 12 2014, 06:20PM
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Surprised that Dubnyk doesn't start defensive zone face offs on his knees.

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#76 vetinari
January 12 2014, 06:43PM
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We were lucky that period... We only gave up three and Chicago gave us one back on an empty net fluke... Notice everyone's body language when they showed a close up of Dubnyk and then panned over to the bench... It was "aaawwww sh!t, here we go again." To them, they can't get out of Chicago fast enough.

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#77 **
January 12 2014, 07:54PM
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RexHolez wrote:

Hey Kevin Lowe haters, how about giving the guy a little credit for still trying!! I mean lets say you were trying to learn how to ride a bike, and for 8 years you just keep falling everytime you try. would you even bother anymore?? Sure he might be completely incapable, but atleast he's still trying right?

Not sure if trolling or sarcasm.

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#78 outdoorzguy
January 12 2014, 08:31PM
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How does anyone think this team is an improvement over anything over the last dozen years? This organization is the laughing stock of all pro sports. Even Winnipeg has done something to right the ship. The management blinders have to come off, although I think they are just plain incompetent to see what is going on. Come on people, start to rise up and show your 12 year frustration. Enough is enough. Stop this madness now!

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#79 geeker99
January 13 2014, 02:05AM
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@Brian

I'm with big Bri here, if our first pick isn't trade bait I might be done as a 30 year oil fan. we get any younger we would be sperm.

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#80 Jay
January 13 2014, 08:12AM
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4 games below .500 and the jets fire the coach. How sweet would it be to only be 4 games below .500??

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#81 **
January 12 2014, 03:47PM
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Wanye wrote:

LOL i'm sorry to disappoint you. You seem barely insane at all.

Disappointment comes from expectations. I have none for you, good nor bad. Rock on.

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#82 @Oilanderp
January 12 2014, 05:18PM
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Hemsky sucks!

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#83 Alsker
January 12 2014, 06:09PM
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That was a shot DD must stop. Stand up and wait for the shot already.

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#84 RexHolez
January 12 2014, 06:48PM
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Serious Gord wrote:

And there we have a Dubnyk.

Next week I think I'm going to submit Dubnyk as a new word entry Into the websters dictionary.

I was so drunk last night I took this grenade home from the bar. Pulled a Dubnyk a d forgot to wear a condom and didnt even pull out

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#85 MessyEH
January 12 2014, 07:15PM
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Nice pass by Hemsky and Schultz on that one. I hope Hall keeps charging to the net like that. Back to basics boys. Crash the net and keep your stick down.

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#86 Serious Gord
January 12 2014, 08:02PM
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Wanye:

As in financial markets, calling the bottom is a very risky business. More often the bottom is a false one and the good news that made it look like a bottom turns out to be what is known as a dead car bounce.

Chicago used the game against the oil to shrug off a seasonal lull of three losses in a row.

The oil now visit Dallas who have lost six in a row. I wonder what the outcome of that game will be?

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#87 Drowning in Oil
January 12 2014, 08:02PM
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Max wrote:

1 - I never read/listen to negativity re the Oilers 2 - So that eliminates Robin Brownlee, Edmonton Sun and David Staples' articles 3 - I adore my team, have done for 25 years since I came to Canada 4 - In another life I'd have been married to MacT 5 - In this life I am extremely happily married and I am an eternal optimist re my Oilers 6 - And tonight? Sam will break out - again - and we will win 7 - Oh - did I mention I am an eternal optimist?

Wow, why not add world peace and trees with money growing from them. It is sad that there are a lot of fans like you that sigh when the Oilers play like crap and lose again........... And then you REBOOT and have this unrealistic optimism about a team that really sucks right now. This organization is very happy for fans like you. Wow!!

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#88 Walter Sobchak
January 12 2014, 10:51PM
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Trauma wrote:

Poor Eakins! Stauffer was saying he was a hit commodity with several job offers. Then he picks the oilers, and will probably have a hard time finding a job in the AHL now

This is the same thing the Oilers have tried to sell on the fan base, some have bought the Oilers propaganda machine.

Eakins was being interviewed and had at least a half dozen teams wanting to hire him!

So if that's the case, then why choose the team that's gone 30-30-29-24 with so many holes in the roster? it's just begging the old saying "hired to be fired"

I'm not buying the Oilers hype machine that Eakins was a huge commodity, If he wasn't giving the head coach job he would walk.

Pfft.

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#89 TayLordBalls
January 12 2014, 03:18PM
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an Groovy

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#90 Closetgm
January 12 2014, 04:50PM
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I agree gbear. The value of the franchise has skyrocket since Katz took over. Now he needs to earn his money and turn the oilers into a championship team. I understand things don't just change overnight. But no one should be safe. Whatever it takes to get these guys winning.

On another note. Why would a losing team not be getting up at 7 every morning for practice. To me the later you sleep in the later you stay up. I think If you can't win you can sure as hell get your ass out if bed in the morning.

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#91 Jay
January 12 2014, 06:16PM
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Serious Gord wrote:

And there we have a Dubnyk.

Next week I think I'm going to submit Dubnyk as a new word entry Into the websters dictionary.

Did you see that girl walk face first into the glass door? What a Dubnyk

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#92 Serious Gord
January 12 2014, 06:18PM
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Jay wrote:

Did you see that girl walk face first into the glass door? What a Dubnyk

Part of the websters defintion "Clutch save" and "dubnyk" will be cited as antonyms.

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#93 Rod from Viking
January 12 2014, 06:37PM
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Rod from Viking wrote:

Except foe Ganger deflecting the puck in his own net last game virtually every goal in up high, stay on your feet you uncoordinated goof, oh and fire Chabot.

Toews was in too close to roof if.

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#94 outdoorzguy
January 12 2014, 08:15PM
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Hey Harrison, Kevin and Craig...Claude Noel is available!!

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#95 Loweblows
January 13 2014, 06:56AM
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Wayne are you really happy with where MacT has taken the team this year? What fluff you write. MacT hired and continues to support a rookie coach who has no effin idea how to coach in the NHL. Are you scared of losing your back door pass to the dressing room. I am sick of media in this town not calling out management. Anything short of demanding managerial change is just fluff.

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#96 TayLordBalls
January 12 2014, 03:17PM
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sweet!

Go Oilers

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#97 Oliveoiler
January 12 2014, 03:38PM
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Apart from the past 2 match-ups, we seem to be able to do well against the Hawks. IF the guys can remember this and IF they stick to the game plan, hell, we could stick it to them AND overtake Calgary as a bonus....GO OILERS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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#98 pelhem grenville
January 12 2014, 03:42PM
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...take what they know they had two nights ago and play the game the way they know how they can play...oilers win 4-2 empty netter by DD

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#99 Ghosts of Northlands
January 12 2014, 03:43PM
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The Hawks twitter says that Raanta is in net tonight.

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#100 Dog Train
January 12 2014, 04:14PM
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I'm looking for consistency more than anything else. We played well against the Penguins. Now how do we respond? It will take a big effort in the Madhouse tonight but the 'Hawks aren't clicking on a ll cylinders right now. I say we prolong their mini slump and win 5-4 in a shootout.

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