GDB 48.0: MARKET BOTTOM

Wanye
January 12 2014 02:51PM

After watching the Mighty Oilers beat the Pens in an impressive fashion some of us find ourselves wondering if that level of compete and compelling victory are a one time aberration or a sign of things to come. It was a grand time on Friday night, with rarely seen "hooting" "hollering" and "legitimate excitement" felt by many Oilers fans. 

The team that came back in the third period was an entirely different squadron than we have seen on many a night and they need to be seen more often. And quick.

CALLING MARKET BOTTOM

 

The Oilers are a business and any business is subject to cycles. The Oil spectacularly peaked early on in the NHL and it seems as though Oilers fans have paid for every championship calibre game in the 80s with an equal period of terribility in the 10s. The Oil have since averaged out early market dominating performance with a trough so long you can see it from space. But this is where you have to look at the long game. You see? The Oilers aren't so bad when you look at them on a long enough time horizon. You just need to take an average of the last 500 years!

(gunshot)

If you look at the Oilers as a business it's staggering to think that the Oilers have easily spent over $400 million on salaries since they last made the playoffs and haven't seen a second of post season action for their buck. That's an eye popping sum that Kay-Z has sent out the door and with nothing coming back in return. Brutal.

But as is the case with any stock, good money is made by calling a market bottom. That's the time the savvy investor takes a look at the fundamentals of the business and decides if the worst is behind the company and brighter days lay ahead. Has the market changed? Has the business made significant changes? Are there new key executives involved who understand the issues they face and have a plan to turn things around?

Even the most pissed off Oilers fan will grudgingly admit the Oilers are a  much better team than they were anywhere between 2007-11. And though recent changes to Coach and GM have frustratingly yet to bear fruit it is way too soon to call for the heads of Eakins and MacT. We actually like where Mac T's head these days, having read a mile long interview with him this afternoon.

As Robin Brownlee pointed out, David Staples has a massive 4 part interview with MacT over at the Edmonton Journal that is one of the better Oilers pieces we can recall for awhile. For someone trying to gauge if the Oilers are anywhere near coming off market bottom we offer the words of the man charged with turning the business around:

"When I took over my one mandate was to turn this team over to the guys who are ultimately going to lead us out of this, and that was largely the draft choices, Taylor, Nugent-Hopkins, Eberle, and put them in very prominent positions. No hiding them in the match-ups. Turning them loose to the toughest match ups. And at the start of this year, that didn’t go well. It went poorly. But I believe strongly failure is a great motivator. I think that those failures really helped those players try and restructure their game and the way they think the game and some of the decision making that they make during a game."

Bear in mind that the title of the article itself quotes MacT saying "I'm not arguing that were close were not" but if you read the entire interview it's immediately clear that MacT is infinitely more on the ball than our dear Tambellini ever was and he seems to understand the issues crippling his business even if he has yet to do anything significant to address them. As an MBA grad one would hope he applies all that book learnin and starts making some moves soon.

It may not be market bottom for the Oilers yet - but a few more confidence building wins like the one against the Penguins and it may be closer than it feels most days.

GAME DAY

And so flush with the temporary confidence that comes from beating the Penguins the Oilers face off with the Chicago Blackhawks today in Chicago. How good are the Hawks? Very. How good are the Oil? Somewhere between terrible and brutal. But the Pens are on a 7-2-1 streak in their past 10 and the Oil can pat themselves on the back for providing half of those losses.

Believe it or not the Oilers are 4-2-1 in last 7 trips to Chicago. A win tonight would be their third win in their last 4 games all against the top 9 teams in the NHL. Hmm. You never know.

OILERS LINES

The Oilers have yet to tweet their lineups but as of 2:50 PM the lines are as follows according to DailyFaceOff.com. Please shoot any updates into the comments as they are released and keep us all on top of the very latest. 

 

HAWKS LINES

 

The Hawks have also yet to finalize their lines as of press time but the latest combinations are presented here.

PREDICTIONS

GAME DAY PREDICTION: Oh what the hell. The Oilers win 4-3, causing hundreds of thousands of Oilers fans petitioning the United Nations for Kevin Lowe's resignation to stop their protest for a brief moment in celebration before resuming their cause in earnest.

OBVIOUS GAME DAY PREDICTION: Jordan Eberle scores 2 goals and hundreds of new Oilers fans are born exactly 9 months from today as a result of worldwide jubilation immediately after the game.

NOT-SO-OBVIOUS GAME DAY PREDICTION: Fresh off a 2 goal game, The Nuge has a 3 point night. Although he has had one hell of a weekend he still reports to Grade 1 classes on Monday morning like every other student in his class. Full of youthful energy and wonder and delicious victory pie.

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Blog so hard motherf**ckers try and find me. Email me at wanyegretz@gmail.com or tweet me @wanyegretz provided it is about Jordan Eberle or babes.
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#1 RexHolez
January 12 2014, 06:23PM
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Hey Kevin Lowe haters, how about giving the guy a little credit for still trying!! I mean lets say you were trying to learn how to ride a bike, and for 8 years you just keep falling everytime you try. would you even bother anymore?? Sure he might be completely incapable, but atleast he's still trying right?

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#2 @Oilanderp
January 12 2014, 05:18PM
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Hemsky sucks!

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#3 Oiler Al
January 12 2014, 03:45PM
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GAgner on the first line is a waste of oxygen. Its a toss up, whose worse Gagner or Hemsky.?

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#4 Fred
January 12 2014, 03:07PM
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They beat the Pens, however Pens did not take them seriously and lost. They thought they could show up and win, they nearly did. You can take what you want out of the game but history tells us Oilers are one of the worst teams in the NHL.

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#5 **
January 12 2014, 03:34PM
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Oilers lose all season and nobody panics, they win against the penguins and everyone loses their minds!!!

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#6 Max
January 12 2014, 04:47PM
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1 - I never read/listen to negativity re the Oilers 2 - So that eliminates Robin Brownlee, Edmonton Sun and David Staples' articles 3 - I adore my team, have done for 25 years since I came to Canada 4 - In another life I'd have been married to MacT 5 - In this life I am extremely happily married and I am an eternal optimist re my Oilers 6 - And tonight? Sam will break out - again - and we will win 7 - Oh - did I mention I am an eternal optimist?

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#7 **
January 12 2014, 03:36PM
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Obvious game day prediction: The oilers lose this one bad and we don't hear from Wayne again until draft week. Boy seems to bail when things are going south.

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#8 **
January 12 2014, 03:52PM
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Wanye wrote:

So you think the Oilers are worth 600 million? BRAVO SIR

You're right, my bad. According to Forbes Katz bought the team for $170 mil. Their latest valuation for the franchise is $400 mil. That's 2.35 times more value, not 3 times, sorry about that. Mind you this valuation was done before the Rogers deal was announced, so I'm just going to go ahead and say that a this time this year the Oilers will have indeed tripled (at least) their value as a franchise. Where did you come up with $600 mil? number a$$-pulling is probably fun, but not accurate.

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#10 RexHolez
January 12 2014, 06:48PM
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Serious Gord wrote:

And there we have a Dubnyk.

Next week I think I'm going to submit Dubnyk as a new word entry Into the websters dictionary.

I was so drunk last night I took this grenade home from the bar. Pulled a Dubnyk a d forgot to wear a condom and didnt even pull out

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#11 Rubber
January 12 2014, 07:47PM
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@Alsker

One-sided officiating again. Eberle gets pitch forked before Hawks's 5th goal and our coach has that goofy Boy Scout look. When's Eakins going to join the big league?

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#12 Lowetide
January 12 2014, 02:55PM
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FIST COMMENT OILERZ RAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA

Well. damn! GOILERS!

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#13 Saywhat??
January 12 2014, 04:47PM
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** wrote:

Oilers lose all season and nobody panics, they win against the penguins and everyone loses their minds!!!

I'm flabbergasted by comments such as these. "Nobody's panicking"?! Have you been living under a damn rock?!?! Nobody in edmonton is disillusioned enough to think this season is going well. Have you been reading the comments on these blogs?? Have you been listening to the call in shows?! If anything fans have been too panicky, screaming about falling sky and demanding knee jerk reaction trades that either make little sense or are trades no sane gm would ever make. And yet you feel the need to fabricate this reality where you are the sole arbitrator of truth, and can see how bad the oilers are while all us mortals bumble around in ignorant bliss. Just because some of us see some positives in beating one of the best teams in the league. Well excuse us for seeing small silver linings on what has been a very dark season.

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#14 **
January 12 2014, 03:45PM
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"Even the most pissed off Oilers fan will grudgingly admit the Oilers are a much better team than they were anywhere between 2007-11."

What if I told you the team is on pace for their worst season ever points-wise?

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#15 **
January 12 2014, 03:47PM
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Wanye wrote:

LOL i'm sorry to disappoint you. You seem barely insane at all.

Disappointment comes from expectations. I have none for you, good nor bad. Rock on.

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#16 Robin Brownlee
January 12 2014, 03:05PM
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TRIFECTA!!!!!!

. . . nerds

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#18 Serious Gord
January 12 2014, 05:58PM
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Fer chrissake he has an EXECUTIVE MBA. That is hardly a shadow of a true MBA and does little to impress those who know better.

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#19 Oliveoiler
January 12 2014, 03:40PM
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BTW - I was at the game when Sam got his 8 points - I will quote the late great Humphrey Bogart """play it again Sam"""

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#20 **
January 12 2014, 03:40PM
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"If you look at the Oilers as a business it's staggering to think that the Oilers have easily spent over $400 million on salaries since they last made the playoffs and haven't seen a second of post season action for their buck. That's an eye popping sum that Kay-Z has sent out the door and with nothing coming back in return. Brutal."

What if I told you the franchise value of the Oilers has tripled since Katz took over?

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#21 pelhem grenville
January 12 2014, 03:42PM
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...take what they know they had two nights ago and play the game the way they know how they can play...oilers win 4-2 empty netter by DD

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#22 Closetgm
January 12 2014, 04:50PM
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I agree gbear. The value of the franchise has skyrocket since Katz took over. Now he needs to earn his money and turn the oilers into a championship team. I understand things don't just change overnight. But no one should be safe. Whatever it takes to get these guys winning.

On another note. Why would a losing team not be getting up at 7 every morning for practice. To me the later you sleep in the later you stay up. I think If you can't win you can sure as hell get your ass out if bed in the morning.

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#23 vetinari
January 12 2014, 06:28PM
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Looks like Chicago has woken up.

Hey... we always seem to see the other team's backup goalies... has anyone actually checked this out and how it compares to other teams. Seems a little disrespectful but I don't blame them.

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#24 Trauma
January 12 2014, 06:35PM
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Poor Eakins! Stauffer was saying he was a hit commodity with several job offers. Then he picks the oilers, and will probably have a hard time finding a job in the AHL now

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#25 Rama Lama
January 12 2014, 06:49PM
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Some casual observations:

1. Dubey does NOT give this team confidence......looks like a goaltender but does not play like one.

2. Sam Gagner is the new Horcoff.......play always seems to die on his stick.

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#26 Carson
January 12 2014, 07:24PM
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Does anyone remember the last time they enjoyed watching the oilers play? This team is making me a bitter person

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#27 MessyEH
January 12 2014, 07:45PM
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Cogs with his 15th goal. You go young man.

I didn't like the trade then. (You can teach Defense, but you can't teach top tier speed. )

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#28 Drowning in Oil
January 12 2014, 07:55PM
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RexHolez wrote:

Hey Kevin Lowe haters, how about giving the guy a little credit for still trying!! I mean lets say you were trying to learn how to ride a bike, and for 8 years you just keep falling everytime you try. would you even bother anymore?? Sure he might be completely incapable, but atleast he's still trying right?

One of the stupidest comments on here in a while......

THE NHL IS NOT THE KIND OF BUSINESS WHERE "TRYING" IS GOOD ENOUGH. THERE IS A REASON THERE IS SO MUCH TURNOVER IN PROFESSIONAL SPORTS AND IT ISN'T BECAUSE PEOPLE AREN'T TRYING. IT IS BECAUSE THEY DON'T WIN!! UNFORTUNATELY WINNING MEANS NOTHING TO THIS OWNER SO IN THIS CASE AND THIS CASE ALONE, "TRYING" SEEMS TO BE ENOUGH TO KEEP A JOB!!!

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#29 Serious Gord
January 12 2014, 08:02PM
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Wanye:

As in financial markets, calling the bottom is a very risky business. More often the bottom is a false one and the good news that made it look like a bottom turns out to be what is known as a dead car bounce.

Chicago used the game against the oil to shrug off a seasonal lull of three losses in a row.

The oil now visit Dallas who have lost six in a row. I wonder what the outcome of that game will be?

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#30 Ed in Edmonton
January 12 2014, 08:19PM
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On the bright side, does anyone else think that Marincin has been the Oil's best Dman in the last week?

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#31 D-Unit
January 12 2014, 08:51PM
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2 things:

1. How does Gagner get the second most ice time among the forwards? Why does a coach want such a liability on the ice that much?

2. Why can't the Edmonton media throw some difficult questions at the Oilers Coaching and Management? How would the Montreal media be with the Canadiens if they were this terrible? Can Edmonton and Montreal switch media personnel for a few weeks? I think it would be very interesting, even if I could only understand half of them.

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#32 BingBong
January 12 2014, 09:04PM
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I fully realize we lose this game no matter what, but the refs sure were looking like they had big money on the Hawks.

I thought Hemsky looked good; not much else though. Team was fighting the puck all night, could never make one nice pass. Like someone mentioned above, the play was dying consistently on Gagner's stick.

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#33 #ThereGoesTheOilers
January 12 2014, 03:02PM
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What's not to like about MacT? Tambo sure wouldn't get into an arguement with a fan. He'd still be sitting in the pressbox mulling over the upside of heading downstairs...can't rush these decisions you know...

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#34 Dog Train
January 12 2014, 04:14PM
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I'm looking for consistency more than anything else. We played well against the Penguins. Now how do we respond? It will take a big effort in the Madhouse tonight but the 'Hawks aren't clicking on a ll cylinders right now. I say we prolong their mini slump and win 5-4 in a shootout.

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#35 Sailge
January 12 2014, 04:47PM
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Hahaha. That OGDP is awesome, Wanye.

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#36 6 ring circus
January 12 2014, 05:04PM
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"Bear in mind that the title of the article itself quotes MacT saying "I'm not arguing that were close were not" but if you read the entire interview it's immediately clear that MacT is infinitely more on the ball than our dear Tambellini ever was and he seems to understand the issues crippling his business even if he has yet to do anything significant to address them. As an MBA grad one would hope he applies all that book learnin and starts making some moves soon."

Marge the monkey could've done a better job than Tambellini!!! The idiot who hired Tambellini should be fired to.

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#37 ThatButthurtOilersFan
January 12 2014, 05:10PM
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Tonight will be the first Oiler game I've watched in a month, due to me 'giving' up on the team. Don't make me regret this decision, Oilers.

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#38 seanjohn667
January 12 2014, 05:13PM
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MacT is better than Tambo, and they will eventually get better. But, I think he is making a mistake if he thinks the fans (and some core players) are willing to wait for Nurse, Klefbom and perhaps Ekblad. If he doesn't improve the D, and the whole lineup, this summer, 2014/15 in the basement maybe the final straw for many fans and for Hall. He's got to throw these kids a bone.

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#39 Jay
January 12 2014, 05:54PM
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Don't get Mad or loose faith guys, they just need more time... More time.... More time.... We're close.... We have lots of potential.... Just keep waiting..., progress is overrate.... This is getting way past ridiculous now!

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#40 Serious Gord
January 12 2014, 06:08PM
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And there we have a Dubnyk.

Next week I think I'm going to submit Dubnyk as a new word entry Into the websters dictionary.

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#41 Jay
January 12 2014, 06:25PM
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I wish more teams would score on themselves when playing the oilers. It's only fair

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#42 Rod from Viking
January 12 2014, 06:28PM
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Serious Gord wrote:

Part of the websters defintion "Clutch save" and "dubnyk" will be cited as antonyms.

Except foe Ganger deflecting the puck in his own net last game virtually every goal in up high, stay on your feet you uncoordinated goof, oh and fire Chabot.

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#43 vetinari
January 12 2014, 06:35PM
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Frenchy wrote:

Playing their backup isn't disrespectful, not playing anyone in net would be disrespectful

We would at least be competitive...

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#44 Jay
January 12 2014, 06:54PM
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Rama Lama wrote:

Some casual observations:

1. Dubey does NOT give this team confidence......looks like a goaltender but does not play like one.

2. Sam Gagner is the new Horcoff.......play always seems to die on his stick.

Sam Gagner is not the new Horcoff!!! Horcoff won faceoffs and player defence.... Not sure what gagner does

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#45 Drowning in Oil
January 12 2014, 07:42PM
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I realize Taylor "The Franchise" Hall scored but man, oh man, the BlackHawks are making the Oilers look like a AA squad out there. It just shows the difference between the East and West. Poor Oilers are stuck in the wrong conference!!

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#46 **
January 12 2014, 07:43PM
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Wow the Oilers beat another top team!. The rebuild is back on track!!!. They're such a good team now!.

Ohh wait, no they didn't, no it isn't, and no they are not.

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#47 Anton
January 13 2014, 04:31AM
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john wrote:

Oilers keep buying into the hype from other city media or their scouts. They said Eakin was a hot coaching coming out of AHL, Oilers hired him. Scouting reports each year (mostly from 29 other teams) picked soft top player as number one ranking knowing Oilers get 1st pick, Oilers felled for it and pick that player. As a result Oilers have all these (top skills players) top ranked scouting report picks and top coaching candidate pick. The result is now what we all see, more bottom 5 finish and out of playoffs. If you know the secret of a goose that lay golden eggs, would you tell everyone about it? So why the hell do the Oilers listen to what other people out there telling them which players to pick and who to coach the team?

Eberle was 22nd overall pick so we can remove him from this equation.

In 2010 was basically between Hall and Seguin which Oilers was looking for a scorer more than a playmaker. During 2009~2010 that the team was a mess so any good quality players were needed.

In 2011 that the draft was considered to be relatively weak, the top 4 skaters were RNH, Landeskog, Huberdeau, and Larsson. Landeskog might be a better player so far but consider he is play on the same position as Hall and Oilers has no playmaker that was understandably that they choose a C. Huberdeau had a good year last year and he is just bad this year. Larsson is still searching his game in between AHL and NHL so that is not much of a desirable choice.

In 2012 is plain and simple that Yakupov was NHL ready, and he was sharp off the bat. Can you think of others that could be a better choice than Yakupov at that year? Others were either still in minors or on IR. Only Lindholm is playing well because he is playing behind veteran leaders and a solid team.

If you want to blame scouts, don't. Oilers scout has been a lot better in recent years than before. The management on the other hand has not given the young players enough time to develop. It is just expectation were too high on all the youngsters to deliver right away.

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#48 TayLordBalls
January 12 2014, 03:17PM
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sweet!

Go Oilers

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#49 TayLordBalls
January 12 2014, 03:18PM
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an Groovy

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#50 Old Retired Guy (A.K.A. Die-Nasty)
January 12 2014, 03:22PM
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Aberration in Oilersnation!

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