GDB 48.0: MARKET BOTTOM

Wanye
January 12 2014 02:51PM

After watching the Mighty Oilers beat the Pens in an impressive fashion some of us find ourselves wondering if that level of compete and compelling victory are a one time aberration or a sign of things to come. It was a grand time on Friday night, with rarely seen "hooting" "hollering" and "legitimate excitement" felt by many Oilers fans. 

The team that came back in the third period was an entirely different squadron than we have seen on many a night and they need to be seen more often. And quick.

CALLING MARKET BOTTOM

 

The Oilers are a business and any business is subject to cycles. The Oil spectacularly peaked early on in the NHL and it seems as though Oilers fans have paid for every championship calibre game in the 80s with an equal period of terribility in the 10s. The Oil have since averaged out early market dominating performance with a trough so long you can see it from space. But this is where you have to look at the long game. You see? The Oilers aren't so bad when you look at them on a long enough time horizon. You just need to take an average of the last 500 years!

(gunshot)

If you look at the Oilers as a business it's staggering to think that the Oilers have easily spent over $400 million on salaries since they last made the playoffs and haven't seen a second of post season action for their buck. That's an eye popping sum that Kay-Z has sent out the door and with nothing coming back in return. Brutal.

But as is the case with any stock, good money is made by calling a market bottom. That's the time the savvy investor takes a look at the fundamentals of the business and decides if the worst is behind the company and brighter days lay ahead. Has the market changed? Has the business made significant changes? Are there new key executives involved who understand the issues they face and have a plan to turn things around?

Even the most pissed off Oilers fan will grudgingly admit the Oilers are a  much better team than they were anywhere between 2007-11. And though recent changes to Coach and GM have frustratingly yet to bear fruit it is way too soon to call for the heads of Eakins and MacT. We actually like where Mac T's head these days, having read a mile long interview with him this afternoon.

As Robin Brownlee pointed out, David Staples has a massive 4 part interview with MacT over at the Edmonton Journal that is one of the better Oilers pieces we can recall for awhile. For someone trying to gauge if the Oilers are anywhere near coming off market bottom we offer the words of the man charged with turning the business around:

"When I took over my one mandate was to turn this team over to the guys who are ultimately going to lead us out of this, and that was largely the draft choices, Taylor, Nugent-Hopkins, Eberle, and put them in very prominent positions. No hiding them in the match-ups. Turning them loose to the toughest match ups. And at the start of this year, that didn’t go well. It went poorly. But I believe strongly failure is a great motivator. I think that those failures really helped those players try and restructure their game and the way they think the game and some of the decision making that they make during a game."

Bear in mind that the title of the article itself quotes MacT saying "I'm not arguing that were close were not" but if you read the entire interview it's immediately clear that MacT is infinitely more on the ball than our dear Tambellini ever was and he seems to understand the issues crippling his business even if he has yet to do anything significant to address them. As an MBA grad one would hope he applies all that book learnin and starts making some moves soon.

It may not be market bottom for the Oilers yet - but a few more confidence building wins like the one against the Penguins and it may be closer than it feels most days.

GAME DAY

And so flush with the temporary confidence that comes from beating the Penguins the Oilers face off with the Chicago Blackhawks today in Chicago. How good are the Hawks? Very. How good are the Oil? Somewhere between terrible and brutal. But the Pens are on a 7-2-1 streak in their past 10 and the Oil can pat themselves on the back for providing half of those losses.

Believe it or not the Oilers are 4-2-1 in last 7 trips to Chicago. A win tonight would be their third win in their last 4 games all against the top 9 teams in the NHL. Hmm. You never know.

OILERS LINES

The Oilers have yet to tweet their lineups but as of 2:50 PM the lines are as follows according to DailyFaceOff.com. Please shoot any updates into the comments as they are released and keep us all on top of the very latest. 

 

HAWKS LINES

 

The Hawks have also yet to finalize their lines as of press time but the latest combinations are presented here.

PREDICTIONS

GAME DAY PREDICTION: Oh what the hell. The Oilers win 4-3, causing hundreds of thousands of Oilers fans petitioning the United Nations for Kevin Lowe's resignation to stop their protest for a brief moment in celebration before resuming their cause in earnest.

OBVIOUS GAME DAY PREDICTION: Jordan Eberle scores 2 goals and hundreds of new Oilers fans are born exactly 9 months from today as a result of worldwide jubilation immediately after the game.

NOT-SO-OBVIOUS GAME DAY PREDICTION: Fresh off a 2 goal game, The Nuge has a 3 point night. Although he has had one hell of a weekend he still reports to Grade 1 classes on Monday morning like every other student in his class. Full of youthful energy and wonder and delicious victory pie.

09049f03ecb006ab29372206f2a88f75
Blog so hard motherf**ckers try and find me. Email me at wanyegretz@gmail.com or tweet me @wanyegretz provided it is about Jordan Eberle or babes.
Avatar
#51 Oliveoiler
January 12 2014, 03:38PM
Trash it!
1
trashes
Cheers
3
cheers

Apart from the past 2 match-ups, we seem to be able to do well against the Hawks. IF the guys can remember this and IF they stick to the game plan, hell, we could stick it to them AND overtake Calgary as a bonus....GO OILERS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Avatar
#52 a lg dubl dubl
January 12 2014, 03:41PM
Trash it!
1
trashes
Cheers
10
cheers

Im curious, if the Oilers win tonight and leap frog the Lames, and actually stay ahead of them for the remainder of the season and the Oilers miss out on Ekblad, will fans still call for Lowe and MacT to get $hit canned?

Avatar
#53 Ghosts of Northlands
January 12 2014, 03:43PM
Trash it!
1
trashes
Cheers
3
cheers

The Hawks twitter says that Raanta is in net tonight.

Avatar
#55 @Oilanderp
January 12 2014, 04:32PM
Trash it!
1
trashes
Cheers
8
cheers

Man... is that the kind of devil music the kids are listening to these days? It's completely.. oh hold on...

GET THE HELL AWAY FROM MY APPLE TREES YOU SONSOBEECHES!!!

*shakes fist*

Avatar
#56 vetinari
January 12 2014, 05:11PM
Trash it!
1
trashes
Cheers
3
cheers

How can I both be happy and angry at the same time at the prospects of watching an Oilers' game?

GDP Hawks 4 Oilers 2

Avatar
#57 Alsker
January 12 2014, 05:50PM
Trash it!
1
trashes
Cheers
11
cheers

Shift after shift the play dies with gags. "Hall to Gags and he turns it over, Gags passes to Hall 2 feet behind him and a foot off the ice". I thought management was trying to showcase Gags..not working. But all in all not a bad road period for the Oil.

Avatar
#58 The rookie
January 12 2014, 06:04PM
Trash it!
1
trashes
Cheers
1
cheers
** wrote:

You're right, my bad. According to Forbes Katz bought the team for $170 mil. Their latest valuation for the franchise is $400 mil. That's 2.35 times more value, not 3 times, sorry about that. Mind you this valuation was done before the Rogers deal was announced, so I'm just going to go ahead and say that a this time this year the Oilers will have indeed tripled (at least) their value as a franchise. Where did you come up with $600 mil? number a$$-pulling is probably fun, but not accurate.

Considering the market has gone up that much, has little to do with Katz being the owner. Just like I'm sure the Leafs being worth 1B has (yes some) has little to do with the teachers pension no longer owning their team. It's all about the cap era, the market, and Wanye's eternal love for Eberle.

Avatar
#59 Devolution
January 12 2014, 06:11PM
Trash it!
1
trashes
Cheers
16
cheers

I have been coming here for three years and have never once called out a player but, my god, can someone tell me what Sam Gagner brings to this team?

Avatar
#60 Jay
January 12 2014, 06:13PM
Trash it!
1
trashes
Cheers
6
cheers
Alsker wrote:

That was a shot DD must stop. Stand up and wait for the shot already.

Must stop and dubnyk don't belong in the Same sentence

Avatar
#61 Jay
January 12 2014, 06:14PM
Trash it!
1
trashes
Cheers
6
cheers
Devolution wrote:

I have been coming here for three years and have never once called out a player but, my god, can someone tell me what Sam Gagner brings to this team?

3.5 mil cap hit, NTC and a new goat for the fans to replace Horcoff

Avatar
#62 Jay
January 12 2014, 06:16PM
Trash it!
1
trashes
Cheers
4
cheers
Serious Gord wrote:

And there we have a Dubnyk.

Next week I think I'm going to submit Dubnyk as a new word entry Into the websters dictionary.

Did you see that girl walk face first into the glass door? What a Dubnyk

Avatar
#63 Alsker
January 12 2014, 06:16PM
Trash it!
1
trashes
Cheers
8
cheers
Devolution wrote:

I have been coming here for three years and have never once called out a player but, my god, can someone tell me what Sam Gagner brings to this team?

4.8 mill of capspace use. Other than that, pfft, your guess is as good as mine.

Avatar
#64 Serious Gord
January 12 2014, 06:18PM
Trash it!
1
trashes
Cheers
4
cheers
Jay wrote:

Did you see that girl walk face first into the glass door? What a Dubnyk

Part of the websters defintion "Clutch save" and "dubnyk" will be cited as antonyms.

Avatar
#65 Frenchy
January 12 2014, 06:31PM
Trash it!
1
trashes
Cheers
21
cheers

@vetinari

Playing their backup isn't disrespectful, not playing anyone in net would be disrespectful

Avatar
#66 Rod from Viking
January 12 2014, 06:37PM
Trash it!
1
trashes
Cheers
4
cheers
Rod from Viking wrote:

Except foe Ganger deflecting the puck in his own net last game virtually every goal in up high, stay on your feet you uncoordinated goof, oh and fire Chabot.

Toews was in too close to roof if.

Avatar
#67 Butters
January 12 2014, 06:44PM
Trash it!
1
trashes
Cheers
3
cheers
Serious Gord wrote:

And there we have a Dubnyk.

Next week I think I'm going to submit Dubnyk as a new word entry Into the websters dictionary.

I have been using "Dubnyk" as a verb. It's actually a noun?

Avatar
#68 MessyEH
January 12 2014, 07:15PM
Trash it!
1
trashes
Cheers
5
cheers

Nice pass by Hemsky and Schultz on that one. I hope Hall keeps charging to the net like that. Back to basics boys. Crash the net and keep your stick down.

Avatar
#69 Serious Gord
January 12 2014, 07:29PM
Trash it!
1
trashes
Cheers
18
cheers

Edmonton gets close, the hawks turn it on.

Truly different leagues.

Avatar
#70 Alsker
January 12 2014, 07:32PM
Trash it!
1
trashes
Cheers
17
cheers
Jay wrote:

Sam Gagner is not the new Horcoff!!! Horcoff won faceoffs and player defence.... Not sure what gagner does

Well they pulled him off the wing a put him back @ 2C, that line is now -3. But don't worry, it'll all be Yaks fault. Tho better there than with RNH and Hall.

Avatar
#71 Serious Gord
January 12 2014, 07:42PM
Trash it!
1
trashes
Cheers
13
cheers

Another day another loss. I'm reminded of wile e coyote and the sheep dog. The dog always was a step ahead and no matter how close the coyote got to doing him in the dog reversed it into him.

And we have seen years and years of it in reruns...

Avatar
#72 Harry
January 12 2014, 07:50PM
Trash it!
1
trashes
Cheers
11
cheers
RexHolez wrote:

Hey Kevin Lowe haters, how about giving the guy a little credit for still trying!! I mean lets say you were trying to learn how to ride a bike, and for 8 years you just keep falling everytime you try. would you even bother anymore?? Sure he might be completely incapable, but atleast he's still trying right?

Name me one person who gets paid millions of dollars to try to learn how to ride a bike. Your argument is extremely week.

Avatar
#73 **
January 12 2014, 07:54PM
Trash it!
1
trashes
Cheers
6
cheers
RexHolez wrote:

Hey Kevin Lowe haters, how about giving the guy a little credit for still trying!! I mean lets say you were trying to learn how to ride a bike, and for 8 years you just keep falling everytime you try. would you even bother anymore?? Sure he might be completely incapable, but atleast he's still trying right?

Not sure if trolling or sarcasm.

Avatar
#74 Harry
January 12 2014, 07:56PM
Trash it!
1
trashes
Cheers
20
cheers
Max wrote:

1 - I never read/listen to negativity re the Oilers 2 - So that eliminates Robin Brownlee, Edmonton Sun and David Staples' articles 3 - I adore my team, have done for 25 years since I came to Canada 4 - In another life I'd have been married to MacT 5 - In this life I am extremely happily married and I am an eternal optimist re my Oilers 6 - And tonight? Sam will break out - again - and we will win 7 - Oh - did I mention I am an eternal optimist?

You are exactly the type of fan Katz and Lowe love. Blind and without a spine

Avatar
#75 Rama Lama
January 12 2014, 08:00PM
Trash it!
1
trashes
Cheers
12
cheers

I think it's time to change names for Mr. Fitness to Mr. Blender..........come on man it can't be this hard to come up win line combinations that work.

Hemsky is a much better fit in the top six than Gags. I love Gags but I think too much playing Doctor/Nurse has made his brain go numb when it come to hockey.

Put him on the third line wing until he wakes up!

Avatar
#76 6 ring circus
January 12 2014, 08:01PM
Trash it!
1
trashes
Cheers
10
cheers

Oh well ,at least they beat the Penguins on Friday .Have to love it when some of the media said after the win Friday it was a turning pointe for the team,it was only one win !!!! And tonight it was welcome back to reality for the team and fans. It's the same old story with this team.

Avatar
#77 Drowning in Oil
January 12 2014, 08:02PM
Trash it!
1
trashes
Cheers
5
cheers
Max wrote:

1 - I never read/listen to negativity re the Oilers 2 - So that eliminates Robin Brownlee, Edmonton Sun and David Staples' articles 3 - I adore my team, have done for 25 years since I came to Canada 4 - In another life I'd have been married to MacT 5 - In this life I am extremely happily married and I am an eternal optimist re my Oilers 6 - And tonight? Sam will break out - again - and we will win 7 - Oh - did I mention I am an eternal optimist?

Wow, why not add world peace and trees with money growing from them. It is sad that there are a lot of fans like you that sigh when the Oilers play like crap and lose again........... And then you REBOOT and have this unrealistic optimism about a team that really sucks right now. This organization is very happy for fans like you. Wow!!

Avatar
#78 MessyEH
January 12 2014, 08:03PM
Trash it!
1
trashes
Cheers
9
cheers

Maybe one of the writers here can do a "Where are they now?" Piece.

Something to really rub our noses into how bad Kblowe has messed this franchise up.

I think a team composed of former Oilers playing in the NHL, would be able to beat our current roster.

Avatar
#79 **
January 12 2014, 08:04PM
Trash it!
1
trashes
Cheers
8
cheers
Harry wrote:

You are exactly the type of fan Katz and Lowe love. Blind and without a spine

It's probably just their family members and cronies. One can only hope.

Avatar
#80 Rubber
January 12 2014, 08:15PM
Trash it!
1
trashes
Cheers
7
cheers

@6 ring circus

Here's interesting stat that I can't believe the Oilers office hasn't taken note of. Number of times a team plays the Flames and then plays the Oilers the very next night: 2 Number of times a team plays the Oilers and then plays the Flames the very next night: 10

This is not just an oddity this season. I noticed the same imbalance last season.

Are we chopped liver?

Avatar
#81 outdoorzguy
January 12 2014, 08:18PM
Trash it!
1
trashes
Cheers
2
cheers
Drowning in Oil wrote:

One of the stupidest comments on here in a while......

THE NHL IS NOT THE KIND OF BUSINESS WHERE "TRYING" IS GOOD ENOUGH. THERE IS A REASON THERE IS SO MUCH TURNOVER IN PROFESSIONAL SPORTS AND IT ISN'T BECAUSE PEOPLE AREN'T TRYING. IT IS BECAUSE THEY DON'T WIN!! UNFORTUNATELY WINNING MEANS NOTHING TO THIS OWNER SO IN THIS CASE AND THIS CASE ALONE, "TRYING" SEEMS TO BE ENOUGH TO KEEP A JOB!!!

Sounds like some offshoot of a Corsi statistic! The only stat that matters in pro sports is wins.

Avatar
#82 outdoorzguy
January 12 2014, 08:31PM
Trash it!
1
trashes
Cheers
6
cheers

How does anyone think this team is an improvement over anything over the last dozen years? This organization is the laughing stock of all pro sports. Even Winnipeg has done something to right the ship. The management blinders have to come off, although I think they are just plain incompetent to see what is going on. Come on people, start to rise up and show your 12 year frustration. Enough is enough. Stop this madness now!

Avatar
#83 Sean Fulmer
January 12 2014, 08:33PM
Trash it!
1
trashes
Cheers
2
cheers

To that one person said give klow credit. Yes some of your co workers will say some good things about you but if your work ain't up to snuff the negatives will always prevail. My prediction is he resigns or Katz gives him full ownership of the team. He's got no where else to go but own the team. But honestly you actually think the guy would even want to be back next year. The only bad part about this for him is that the year he leaves the oilers make the playoffs. And it's gonna look to be all his fault and unfortunately for him all the negative rebuild problems are gonna look to be his fault.

Avatar
#84 outdoorzguy
January 12 2014, 08:39PM
Trash it!
1
trashes
Cheers
14
cheers
vetinari wrote:

Looks like Chicago has woken up.

Hey... we always seem to see the other team's backup goalies... has anyone actually checked this out and how it compares to other teams. Seems a little disrespectful but I don't blame them.

How is this disrespectful? We are a disgrace and shouldn't expect anything more. We are a great opportunity to rest a starter. We are a minor league league team, coached by a minor leaguer, run by inexperience. How can an owner let his $400 million franchise be run by such fools? Because we've accepted it. Edmonton..."City of Mediocrity".

Avatar
#85 **
January 12 2014, 08:59PM
Trash it!
1
trashes
Cheers
16
cheers

https://www.facebook.com/Lowemustgo

Avatar
#86 reaperfunkss (2nd tier fan)
January 12 2014, 09:06PM
Trash it!
1
trashes
Cheers
2
cheers
Rama Lama wrote:

I think it's time to change names for Mr. Fitness to Mr. Blender..........come on man it can't be this hard to come up win line combinations that work.

Hemsky is a much better fit in the top six than Gags. I love Gags but I think too much playing Doctor/Nurse has made his brain go numb when it come to hockey.

Put him on the third line wing until he wakes up!

How about "The Redecorator" You know how he took out the pictures of past great players and moments so this group could build their own.

Remember how the Canadiens didn't win all those cups with pictures of their greats and great moments everywhere?

Avatar
#87 Rod from Viking
January 12 2014, 09:58PM
Trash it!
1
trashes
Cheers
11
cheers
Max wrote:

1 - I never read/listen to negativity re the Oilers 2 - So that eliminates Robin Brownlee, Edmonton Sun and David Staples' articles 3 - I adore my team, have done for 25 years since I came to Canada 4 - In another life I'd have been married to MacT 5 - In this life I am extremely happily married and I am an eternal optimist re my Oilers 6 - And tonight? Sam will break out - again - and we will win 7 - Oh - did I mention I am an eternal optimist?

And tonight? Sam will break out - again - and we will win 7 - Oh - did I mention I am an eternal optimist?

You were right he did break out, only -3, put this liability on the 4th line or the press box.

Avatar
#88 geeker99
January 13 2014, 02:05AM
Trash it!
1
trashes
Cheers
6
cheers

@Brian

I'm with big Bri here, if our first pick isn't trade bait I might be done as a 30 year oil fan. we get any younger we would be sperm.

Avatar
#89 john
January 13 2014, 02:24AM
Trash it!
1
trashes
Cheers
1
cheers

Oilers keep buying into the hype from other city media or their scouts. They said Eakin was a hot coaching coming out of AHL, Oilers hired him. Scouting reports each year (mostly from 29 other teams) picked soft top player as number one ranking knowing Oilers get 1st pick, Oilers felled for it and pick that player. As a result Oilers have all these (top skills players) top ranked scouting report picks and top coaching candidate pick. The result is now what we all see, more bottom 5 finish and out of playoffs. If you know the secret of a goose that lay golden eggs, would you tell everyone about it? So why the hell do the Oilers listen to what other people out there telling them which players to pick and who to coach the team?

Avatar
#90 Reach Advantage
January 12 2014, 03:34PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
6
cheers

Wanye, please bring in Kevin McCartney to write for Oilersnation. He's even an Oiler fan!

Avatar
#91 Alsker
January 12 2014, 06:09PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
5
cheers

That was a shot DD must stop. Stand up and wait for the shot already.

Avatar
#92 Gk1980
January 12 2014, 06:10PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
6
cheers

Oilers do not have any answer to a oppositions push back. When a team decides to press Edmonton hey seem to do it with ease. Why don't the oilers play pissed off once in awhile? Hit, and just be mean. I miss that hockey. These guys need to attend military boot camp this summer.

Avatar
#93 Butters
January 12 2014, 06:15PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
31
cheers

If Gegner doesn't start playing better, Eakins will have no choice but to bench Yakupov.

Avatar
#94 Butters
January 12 2014, 06:17PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
3
cheers
Jay wrote:

Must stop and dubnyk don't belong in the Same sentence

I blame that last goal on the D. I am pretty sure i heard them yell; "go down dubbie, go down".

Avatar
#95 vetinari
January 12 2014, 06:20PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
6
cheers

Surprised that Dubnyk doesn't start defensive zone face offs on his knees.

Avatar
#96 Frenchy
January 12 2014, 06:26PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
10
cheers

Hey look, Dubnyk played goalie for the Blackhawks there

Avatar
#97 Anton
January 12 2014, 06:27PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
8
cheers

So that's Oilers second SHG this year.

Avatar
#98 Alsker
January 12 2014, 06:37PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
2
cheers

Thank goodness its almost the end of the period, maybe we only give up 1 more.

Avatar
#99 vetinari
January 12 2014, 06:43PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
6
cheers

We were lucky that period... We only gave up three and Chicago gave us one back on an empty net fluke... Notice everyone's body language when they showed a close up of Dubnyk and then panned over to the bench... It was "aaawwww sh!t, here we go again." To them, they can't get out of Chicago fast enough.

Avatar
#100 Jay
January 12 2014, 06:56PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
8
cheers

@Jay

*played... Oops, I pulled a dubnyk and miss played my keyboard

Comments are closed for this article.