GDB 48.0: MARKET BOTTOM

Wanye
January 12 2014 02:51PM

After watching the Mighty Oilers beat the Pens in an impressive fashion some of us find ourselves wondering if that level of compete and compelling victory are a one time aberration or a sign of things to come. It was a grand time on Friday night, with rarely seen "hooting" "hollering" and "legitimate excitement" felt by many Oilers fans. 

The team that came back in the third period was an entirely different squadron than we have seen on many a night and they need to be seen more often. And quick.

CALLING MARKET BOTTOM

 

The Oilers are a business and any business is subject to cycles. The Oil spectacularly peaked early on in the NHL and it seems as though Oilers fans have paid for every championship calibre game in the 80s with an equal period of terribility in the 10s. The Oil have since averaged out early market dominating performance with a trough so long you can see it from space. But this is where you have to look at the long game. You see? The Oilers aren't so bad when you look at them on a long enough time horizon. You just need to take an average of the last 500 years!

(gunshot)

If you look at the Oilers as a business it's staggering to think that the Oilers have easily spent over $400 million on salaries since they last made the playoffs and haven't seen a second of post season action for their buck. That's an eye popping sum that Kay-Z has sent out the door and with nothing coming back in return. Brutal.

But as is the case with any stock, good money is made by calling a market bottom. That's the time the savvy investor takes a look at the fundamentals of the business and decides if the worst is behind the company and brighter days lay ahead. Has the market changed? Has the business made significant changes? Are there new key executives involved who understand the issues they face and have a plan to turn things around?

Even the most pissed off Oilers fan will grudgingly admit the Oilers are a  much better team than they were anywhere between 2007-11. And though recent changes to Coach and GM have frustratingly yet to bear fruit it is way too soon to call for the heads of Eakins and MacT. We actually like where Mac T's head these days, having read a mile long interview with him this afternoon.

As Robin Brownlee pointed out, David Staples has a massive 4 part interview with MacT over at the Edmonton Journal that is one of the better Oilers pieces we can recall for awhile. For someone trying to gauge if the Oilers are anywhere near coming off market bottom we offer the words of the man charged with turning the business around:

"When I took over my one mandate was to turn this team over to the guys who are ultimately going to lead us out of this, and that was largely the draft choices, Taylor, Nugent-Hopkins, Eberle, and put them in very prominent positions. No hiding them in the match-ups. Turning them loose to the toughest match ups. And at the start of this year, that didn’t go well. It went poorly. But I believe strongly failure is a great motivator. I think that those failures really helped those players try and restructure their game and the way they think the game and some of the decision making that they make during a game."

Bear in mind that the title of the article itself quotes MacT saying "I'm not arguing that were close were not" but if you read the entire interview it's immediately clear that MacT is infinitely more on the ball than our dear Tambellini ever was and he seems to understand the issues crippling his business even if he has yet to do anything significant to address them. As an MBA grad one would hope he applies all that book learnin and starts making some moves soon.

It may not be market bottom for the Oilers yet - but a few more confidence building wins like the one against the Penguins and it may be closer than it feels most days.

GAME DAY

And so flush with the temporary confidence that comes from beating the Penguins the Oilers face off with the Chicago Blackhawks today in Chicago. How good are the Hawks? Very. How good are the Oil? Somewhere between terrible and brutal. But the Pens are on a 7-2-1 streak in their past 10 and the Oil can pat themselves on the back for providing half of those losses.

Believe it or not the Oilers are 4-2-1 in last 7 trips to Chicago. A win tonight would be their third win in their last 4 games all against the top 9 teams in the NHL. Hmm. You never know.

OILERS LINES

The Oilers have yet to tweet their lineups but as of 2:50 PM the lines are as follows according to DailyFaceOff.com. Please shoot any updates into the comments as they are released and keep us all on top of the very latest. 

 

HAWKS LINES

 

The Hawks have also yet to finalize their lines as of press time but the latest combinations are presented here.

PREDICTIONS

GAME DAY PREDICTION: Oh what the hell. The Oilers win 4-3, causing hundreds of thousands of Oilers fans petitioning the United Nations for Kevin Lowe's resignation to stop their protest for a brief moment in celebration before resuming their cause in earnest.

OBVIOUS GAME DAY PREDICTION: Jordan Eberle scores 2 goals and hundreds of new Oilers fans are born exactly 9 months from today as a result of worldwide jubilation immediately after the game.

NOT-SO-OBVIOUS GAME DAY PREDICTION: Fresh off a 2 goal game, The Nuge has a 3 point night. Although he has had one hell of a weekend he still reports to Grade 1 classes on Monday morning like every other student in his class. Full of youthful energy and wonder and delicious victory pie.

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Blog so hard motherf**ckers try and find me. Email me at wanyegretz@gmail.com or tweet me @wanyegretz provided it is about Jordan Eberle or babes.
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#101 **
January 12 2014, 06:58PM
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Saywhat?? wrote:

I'm flabbergasted by comments such as these. "Nobody's panicking"?! Have you been living under a damn rock?!?! Nobody in edmonton is disillusioned enough to think this season is going well. Have you been reading the comments on these blogs?? Have you been listening to the call in shows?! If anything fans have been too panicky, screaming about falling sky and demanding knee jerk reaction trades that either make little sense or are trades no sane gm would ever make. And yet you feel the need to fabricate this reality where you are the sole arbitrator of truth, and can see how bad the oilers are while all us mortals bumble around in ignorant bliss. Just because some of us see some positives in beating one of the best teams in the league. Well excuse us for seeing small silver linings on what has been a very dark season.

I was just trying to force a joker quote. Apparently I did a poor job. I guess what I was trying to say is that the Oilers are milking that win for all its worth. I personally need much more than that to raise my current expectations about the performance of this team.

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#102 Serious Gord
January 12 2014, 07:05PM
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Butters wrote:

I have been using "Dubnyk" as a verb. It's actually a noun?

It - like "spot" and many other words can be used both ways.

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#103 Rob...
January 12 2014, 07:39PM
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So... slashing someone, who just had the puck, in the nuts is a legal hockey play?

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#104 Kevin
January 12 2014, 07:47PM
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Devolution wrote:

I have been coming here for three years and have never once called out a player but, my god, can someone tell me what Sam Gagner brings to this team?

silly question- KLowe and Mac T OIL brain trust can give you 4.8 million things he brings to the table. Then again what do we know-we're just the paying tier fan. Six rings knows best.

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#105 Harry
January 12 2014, 07:51PM
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Seems to me that Eakins said a few weeks ago that he needs to stick to his plans when it comes to who the starting goalie should be. And he displayed why tonight. Dubnyk was awful and I cant wait for him to be somewhere else other than in an Oilers jersey.

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#106 **
January 12 2014, 08:08PM
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Max wrote:

1 - I never read/listen to negativity re the Oilers 2 - So that eliminates Robin Brownlee, Edmonton Sun and David Staples' articles 3 - I adore my team, have done for 25 years since I came to Canada 4 - In another life I'd have been married to MacT 5 - In this life I am extremely happily married and I am an eternal optimist re my Oilers 6 - And tonight? Sam will break out - again - and we will win 7 - Oh - did I mention I am an eternal optimist?

This has to be the most WTF comment I've ever read on this site.

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#107 outdoorzguy
January 12 2014, 08:15PM
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Hey Harrison, Kevin and Craig...Claude Noel is available!!

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#108 **
January 12 2014, 08:17PM
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For anyone still saying Dubnyk is a starter but the team in front of him is pulling him down, Ryan Miller has a .928 sv% and a 2.58 GAA on a team worse than the Oilers.

Dubnyk is .895 sv% and 3.30 GAA.

Even Berra and Ramo are doing better for Calgary at .899 and .900, 3.03, 2.88

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#109 Ed in Edmonton
January 12 2014, 08:22PM
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"the Oilers are a much better team than they were anywhere between 2007-11".

Wayne could you please explain why anyone would come to this conclusion? The Oil are trending to their all tome worst finish.

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#110 Brian
January 12 2014, 09:32PM
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This will turn for the better one day. I hope my unborn grandchildren enjoy the ride.

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#111 Walter Sobchak
January 12 2014, 10:51PM
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Trauma wrote:

Poor Eakins! Stauffer was saying he was a hit commodity with several job offers. Then he picks the oilers, and will probably have a hard time finding a job in the AHL now

This is the same thing the Oilers have tried to sell on the fan base, some have bought the Oilers propaganda machine.

Eakins was being interviewed and had at least a half dozen teams wanting to hire him!

So if that's the case, then why choose the team that's gone 30-30-29-24 with so many holes in the roster? it's just begging the old saying "hired to be fired"

I'm not buying the Oilers hype machine that Eakins was a huge commodity, If he wasn't giving the head coach job he would walk.

Pfft.

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#112 Loweblows
January 13 2014, 06:56AM
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Wayne are you really happy with where MacT has taken the team this year? What fluff you write. MacT hired and continues to support a rookie coach who has no effin idea how to coach in the NHL. Are you scared of losing your back door pass to the dressing room. I am sick of media in this town not calling out management. Anything short of demanding managerial change is just fluff.

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#113 Jay
January 13 2014, 07:09AM
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Drowning in Oil wrote:

I realize Taylor "The Franchise" Hall scored but man, oh man, the BlackHawks are making the Oilers look like a AA squad out there. It just shows the difference between the East and West. Poor Oilers are stuck in the wrong conference!!

You mean poor oilers are stuck in the wrong league!!

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#114 Brian
January 13 2014, 07:09AM
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Rubber wrote:

Here's interesting stat that I can't believe the Oilers office hasn't taken note of. Number of times a team plays the Flames and then plays the Oilers the very next night: 2 Number of times a team plays the Oilers and then plays the Flames the very next night: 10

This is not just an oddity this season. I noticed the same imbalance last season.

Are we chopped liver?

Yes.

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#115 Frenchy
January 13 2014, 07:15AM
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MessyEH wrote:

Maybe one of the writers here can do a "Where are they now?" Piece.

Something to really rub our noses into how bad Kblowe has messed this franchise up.

I think a team composed of former Oilers playing in the NHL, would be able to beat our current roster.

I'd really like to see the oilers play the OKC barons in a 7 game series. My money's on the barons

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#116 Loweblows
January 13 2014, 07:39AM
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RexHolez wrote:

Hey Kevin Lowe haters, how about giving the guy a little credit for still trying!! I mean lets say you were trying to learn how to ride a bike, and for 8 years you just keep falling everytime you try. would you even bother anymore?? Sure he might be completely incapable, but atleast he's still trying right?

Whatever you say Mrs. Lowe.

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#117 Jay
January 13 2014, 08:12AM
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4 games below .500 and the jets fire the coach. How sweet would it be to only be 4 games below .500??

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#118 RexHolez
January 13 2014, 08:13AM
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Loweblows wrote:

Whatever you say Mrs. Lowe.

I was trying to be sarcastic but it didn't turn out well. I wanted Lowe fired before the rebuild 4 years ago. How he's still here blows my mind

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#119 rickithebear
January 13 2014, 09:20AM
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we all saw aekins AHL system till november 15. Yes Dallas double high pressure works well against AHL players slow to react and reduced passing skills.

In the NHL players pass to the open space in the center of the ice and in the box in front of the net.

we went 4W-15L-2OTL.

Since then we have played 27 games. we are 11W-13L-3OTL

11 of the 13 losses reflect how dominate the top 6 in the west are. 2 @ANA 2 STL @SJS the rest of the league would average 1pt from these games

@LA @VCR BTB CHI; @CHI PHX @COL the league would get 2 pts from these games.

The league would average 3 pts out of a possible 22 in these games.

in the other 16 games we are 11-2-3 we are 5-2-1 against the east

2-1 against the eastern conferences top 3 BOS: TMP; PIT

we have 4 games that are in the clear loss category. the other games are against teams we were highly successful against.

It will be interesting to seethe decisions up to olympic trade deadline.

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