There is something wrong with Taylor Hall

Jonathan Willis
January 16 2014 09:05AM

 

According to the general manager Edmonton Oilers, Taylor Hall is coming along nicely as a hockey player. He is making good decisions and playing better than ever this season.

Maybe he's right. But the data emphatically points to something having gone sideways in the game of the Oilers’ best offensive player.

MacTavish

David Staples, in his fantastic interview with Craig MacTavish last week, mentioned to the G.M. that most of the Oilers’ young stars had seen their play slide under Dallas Eakins. MacTavish disagreed, and specifically noted Hall’s play.

“I don’t think it’s accurate in what I’m seeing,” said MacTavish. “When you talk to people that know hockey very well they will tell you that they are seeing structural changes in Taylor Hall. His game is changing.”

MacTavish specifically noted Hall’s play on a goal against Tampa Bay on January 5:

MacTavish described the play as “living to fight another day” – Hall opting for the dump-in rather than trying to beat two players and turning the puck over and favourably compared that style of play to the one employed by Anaheim’s top line.

The Data

Here’s the thing: if Hall’s game has improved, over time we should see that in the results. So, for example, if he’s avoiding the bad high-risk plays he did in years past we should (all else being equal) expect to see that reflected in numbers like his shots against totals. If his two-way play overall is improved, the Oilers should be out-chancing the opposition more frequently than they have in prior years.

But that isn’t what’s happening.

The chart above looks complicated, but it’s really very simple. What we’re looking at is Oilers shot totals with Hall on and off the ice over the last two seasons.

Last year, Edmonton out-shot their opposition by six shots an hour with Hall on the ice. They were out-shot by nearly 10 shots per hour with Hall off the ice; in other words, the Oilers shot differential improved by 16 (a massive, massive number) when Hall stepped on the ice.

This year, it’s a disaster. The Oilers have actually improved significantly with Hall off the ice – instead of getting out-shot by 10 shots per hour, they’re only being out-shot by half that (and yes, that’s pathetic, but it still represents a pretty big improvement). The problem is that suddenly the Oilers are terrible with Hall on the ice. Not only are they allowing 2.5 shots more per hour than they did a year ago, but they’ve gone from generating 36 shots per hour with Hall on the ice down to 27. That’s a massive drop, a 25 percent reduction in shots for.

Well, maybe Hall’s playing tougher minutes. Except that he isn’t; we can go back and look at who Hall is playing and to quote from that linked Tyler Dellow post, “At home, where Eakins has more control over the matchups, Hall seems to be getting matchups as easy or easier than last year.”

Well, is Eakins is starting him less in the offensive zone? Nope; according to Behind the Net 55 percent of Hall’s non-neutral zone shifts were in the offensive zone last season. This year that number is 57 percent.

Hall’s still scoring, but if the shot numbers don’t improve that isn’t going to last.

The chart above shows two statistics. The first is on-ice shooting percentage, and there’s a pretty clear pattern. With Hall on the ice in three of the last four years, the Oilers have done a slightly better job than the NHL average of finishing on their shots, scoring on between 9.0 and 9.5 percent of all shots taken. This year, the total is 11.3 percent.

That means either the Oilers’ top line has evolved into the league’s best finishing line… or it’s riding a streak of goals going in that isn’t going to last.

The second number is “individual points percentage,” which is a fancy way of saying the percentage of goals a player is on the ice for that he gets points on. So a player who is on the ice for 10 goals and picks up nine points, he would have an IPP of 90.0 percent. What we’ve found looking over years of data is that some years a player picks up points on a weirdly high number of the goals scored when he’s on the ice (generally coinciding with a career year) and sometimes doesn’t get those points (generally coinciding with a terrible points year). Over time, though, those totals average out.

Sidney Crosby is the best player in the league at this (big surprise, he’s driving the offence on his line) and generally averages out in the 85 percent range. Taylor Hall topped 90 percent last year and this season is over 100 percent - somehow he has 29 five-on-five points despite only being on the ice for 27 five-on-five goals.

All of this is a long way of saying that Taylor Hall’s great point totals are not to be trusted. The Oilers aren’t generating shots when he’s on the ice. He’s getting away with it because Edmonton is scoring on a high percentage of their shots when he’s on the ice and because he’s picking up points on all of those goals and some other ones besides. History suggests, rather strongly, that these things will not continue.

What to Make of It All

So we find ourselves in a situation where the data we have directly contradicts the statements of the general manager. MacTavish sees Hall’s play as progressing nicely; the data says he’s fallen off a cliff.

Neither of these is to be dismissed lightly.

MacTavish was an excellent coach in Edmonton, something which was dramatically emphasized by what happened to the team when he was replaced by Pat Quinn. He knows much, much more about how players should execute a system than I do, and much, much more than the comments section here knows too.

On the other hand, I’ve lost track of the number of players I’ve seen riding a percentage bubble who have seen their numbers fall dramatically in the years that followed. Jordan Eberle is probably the best recent Oilers example because people will remember the debate following his breakthrough 2011-12 campaign (76 points in 78 games). In the 96 games since he has a total of 74 points, a 63-point pace over 82 games. It’s a fall that was predicted for the same reasons I’ve cited above with Hall.

I hate to disagree with MacTavish, but the data has been awfully reliable in the past and there’s really only one way to interpret it. Something has gone sideways with Hall’s game this season.

Recently by Jonathan Willis

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Jonathan Willis is a freelance writer. He currently works for Oilers Nation, the Edmonton Journal and Bleacher Report. He's co-written three books and worked for myriad websites, including Grantland, ESPN, The Score, and Hockey Prospectus. He was previously the founder and managing editor of Copper & Blue.
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#51 Tim in Kelowna
January 16 2014, 10:56AM
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I'm not a fan of advanced stats, but they have their place. This isn't it.

Hall is one of the few things going well for the Oilers.

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#52 S cottV
January 16 2014, 10:56AM
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I agree with a prior poster, that MacT was probably refering to more recent play and or plays in his assessment of Hall. Trying to spin it more overly positive than it is, which is his job with the media.

The truth is that he still has 200 foot holes in his game to work on. I think he is paying more attention to it, but - still a long ways to go.

To me - Hall has to more fully accept that he is not playing with ideal complimentary players around him, at this point in time.

RNH is not yet a bonafide top 1C in this league. Eberle and Gagner are small and Gagner isn't a natural winger. There are no top pairing d men on the team.

The above adds up to a lot of territorial pressure and the worst thing Hall can do, is to overly try and make up for it. Sure - some making up for it fits his abilities but going too far and it's gonna end up in the back of our net.

One day - hopefully he gets better complimentary players around him but that day is not here and he would do well to more readily accept this.

In the meantime,

More emphasis on north south as opposed to east west.

More dump and forecheck with purpose as opposed to possession entry

More shots on net and going to the net for rebounds, as opposed to trying extra passes for a picture perfect goal.

More awareness for appropriate risk and return on offense as opposed to trying to make something out of nothing. Avoid situations that can easily lead to dangerous counter attacks. Pick your spots - be more patient.

More effort on backchecking / backpressure and be aware of and react to trailer threats from behind, as he has very little awareness of this.

Do your job in your own zone without any shortcuts. Stop sucking solely on the puck. Be aware of whats going on around you and where the puck is. Err to the side of caution and defence - not to clearing the zone ahead of the puck, to get a jump on offense.

Show leadership, interest and enthusiasm for keeping the puck out of our net.

This would help the advance stats, plus / minus and result in more Oiler wins...

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#53 Terran
January 16 2014, 10:56AM
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I was wondering about a couple things Jonathan. I know you review many games, so you might have the answers. 1. Is the shot drop off perhaps due to Hall taking less low quality shots? Previous years, he would streak into the offensive zone and snap a shot from just over the blue line. This year, he seems to be playing a more possessive game, trying to gain the zone and keep the puck for a better opportunity. Could this explain (part of) the drop off in shot totals?

2. Could part of this be due to Hall trying to restructure his game? I remember reading a few years ago, when Tiger Woods changed his game that there was quite a period of time when his game dropped off due to him having to basically relearn how to play.

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#54 admiralmark
January 16 2014, 10:57AM
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Well thats great! You took 1 of maybe 2 bright spots on the entire Oilers season and analyzed it to tell us... Ummmm guess what?! Thats not actually a bright spot either. Thanks.

My question is how would it be possible for "any" player playing on a team this far down in the dumps with more goals scored on it then any other team in the NHL... How can any player look all that great statistically speaking.

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#55 Ken
January 16 2014, 11:05AM
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Bring Krueger back. Team is going the wrong direction . Was a lot better last year and they should have given Krueger a full season.

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#56 pkam
January 16 2014, 11:08AM
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Jonathan Willis wrote:

I do want to make one point which I think most have picked up on. We're comparing Hall's underlying numbers to his fantastic performance last season. I don't think there's any doubt that Hall is an exceptional player, and given that his talent is bound to win the day eventually.

His underlying numbers have dipped sharply this season, and I only see two plausible possibilities: coaching or injury. If it's coaching it might be a case of short-term pain for long-term gain or it might be that Kreuger had a better idea of how to deal with the player than Eakins does. If it's injury, he'll heal. In either case, I doubt we're looking at a permanent drop-off.

So in summary, you wrote an article with some stats of a phenomenon that is not obvious to us, and that you do not know what is causing it, and you think this phenomenon is only temporary and will not last?

So what is the focal point, or the message, of this article?

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#57 They're $hittie
January 16 2014, 11:13AM
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His scoring is right on and he is not the problem. Screw Corsi!

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#58 Puck JammeR!
January 16 2014, 11:14AM
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"Taylor Hall topped 90 percent last year and this season is over 100 percent - somehow he has 29 five-on-five points despite only being on the ice for 27 five-on-five goals."

Sounds like a very useful and reliable statistic.

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#59 GriffCity
January 16 2014, 11:18AM
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Oil Kings 'n' Pretty Things wrote:

The stats presented don't match what I've seen by eye either, but what a stupid comment this is.

Willis, please propagate the giant circlejerk that these comment threads have become. Pick an article topic that won't ruffle any feathers. That's why we all come to this website, isn't it?

People rip on Bob Stauffer constantly for not asking the tough questions, then pile on when Willis does.

Tough questions? Or stupid ones? I certainly don't have any problem with articles or questions that "ruffle feathers" but when it's a bunch of drivel, then that's something else.

Why not write an article on how players face-off percentage is lower on days when they shave their beards, or how too much sock tape can be a bad thing? Those would make as much sense as the correlations in these ridiculous blogs.

Just saying, there are other players to criticize more before Hall.

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#60 Still Hoping
January 16 2014, 11:18AM
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"When you talk to people that know hockey very well they will tell you that they are seeing structural changes in Taylor Hall. His game is changing.”

If Mac - T was so smart he would know that people who KNOW hockey, are talking about the Oilers Management behind closed doors just like Burke talk about Ryan.

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#61 Dman09
January 16 2014, 11:20AM
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Jonathan Willis wrote:

I do want to make one point which I think most have picked up on. We're comparing Hall's underlying numbers to his fantastic performance last season. I don't think there's any doubt that Hall is an exceptional player, and given that his talent is bound to win the day eventually.

His underlying numbers have dipped sharply this season, and I only see two plausible possibilities: coaching or injury. If it's coaching it might be a case of short-term pain for long-term gain or it might be that Kreuger had a better idea of how to deal with the player than Eakins does. If it's injury, he'll heal. In either case, I doubt we're looking at a permanent drop-off.

Any chance we could see the quality of the defense-men that Hall has played with for last season and the current?

I just get the feeling that the quality of defense-men has gone down since last season.

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#62 Brass Bonanza City
January 16 2014, 11:20AM
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I don't think anyone here would argue that (by numbers or by eye) Hall had a sub-par first couple of months to the season due to playing out of position and being injured (and we don't really have any idea what kind of lasting effects the knee injury had/has on his speed & comfort out there).

You've helpfully shown a split between his linemates' play with and without him from 12/13 to 13/14, but do you have a chart that could show the same split pertaining to Oct/Nov vs. Dec/Jan this season?

I would guess - without looking at an ounce of data, admittedly - that the "quarterly" split would indicate Hallsy's linemates have been much better with him on the ice than w/o over the last 1 1/2 months. And if there is only a slight drop in career numbers vs. his last two months, I'd be pretty comfortable pinning that on Eakins encouraging him to play a stronger & less-risky defensive game.

I understand the numbers don't lie, but how much more accurate, really, is a 3 1/2 month sample vs. a 1 1/2 month sample in this case? I really might be wrong here, just trying to figure out a possible flaw in your logic because he's looked so damned good most nights since November.

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#63 Ed in Edmonton
January 16 2014, 11:29AM
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Interesting article. Keep up the good work.

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#64 Raine
January 16 2014, 11:33AM
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I think if you are going data, in the NHL it's team influenced, to argue a case against a player you need to look at more recent games when it comes to the Oilers. Especially with Hall considering he started the year at centre and struggled mightily. The team also struggled big time when it came to defense and goaltending at beginning of the season. Those first dozen games need to be ignored, we all know it was a mess - it still is.

I'm not worried about Hall at all. By my eye he is much better than the beginning of the season. Took out some of the riskier plays like the toe drag and trying to burn everyone wide and losing the puck in the corner. MacT is right about those plays being eliminated from his game.

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#65 Muji
January 16 2014, 11:36AM
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I'm a fan of advanced stats and Taylor Hall has looked a little off at times, but saying that saying that "THERE IS SOMETHING WRONG WITH TAYLOR HALL" seems a bit sensational.

Especially considering: - he's over 1PPG - he started the year at C - he has a new coach this year, again - he suffered an injury during the season (is he still wearing that knee brace?)

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#66 billythebullet
January 16 2014, 11:36AM
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What's really interesting to me, is although Halls advanced stats have fallen off the face of the earth, his traditional stats are still magnificent. So on a positive note, I for one, can't wait to see what Halls traditional stats look like when his advanced stats catch up again!

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#68 DisappointedFan
January 16 2014, 11:41AM
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@Jonathan Willis

If we want to look at causes for Halls drop off we don't have to look further than the offensive zone play of the team. When they get into the zone and it's not an odd man rush they get into this board grind system that causes some seriously lacking opportunities for quality shot totals. Now regardless of who it is that is on the ice we see this same convergence taking place to the boards instead of a quality developed passing cycle ever developing like we see from other teams.

If you want to look at the GF% of other Oilers when playing with and not with Hall you'd see that he's providing them, on average, higher numbers of point production. How can you suggest that because they are generating more Shot Attempts, that this is somehow providing better quality shot attempts when their point production is significantly lower without him on the ice. Now maybe I'm reading all their charts wrong but it's a pretty glaring difference to look at the numbers that matter in terms of Goals and overall Points and try to say that they are doing better without him.

Is he maybe providing an unrealistic IPP when compared to Crosby, sure? But he's putting pucks in the net and if you watch the way plays I don't see that changing so long as he's healthy. He's a high-risk high-reward player that takes advantage of the few opportunities he gets and despite the glaringly terrible play of the defense to keep the puck in the zone or for Justin Schultz not to jump into a 4 forward role every time he's on the ice, I'd say Hall is doing alright with what he's working with.

Is there a correlation between his shots for drop and his points, no. If it turns into a 30 pointless streak for Hall after this post because it finally catches up to him, well I'll send you a message filled with regrets and tears Willis. Until then I'd like to think that he's the one real shining light on this team that consistently brings an entertaining game to watch.

If you feel I didn't full answer your question it's weird trying to write a full response that meshes when you're trying to work. But I'll gladly try to clarify any thought in another reply.

In short there are 5 other guys on the ice whenever he's out there and they aren't exactly bringing the heat to the party either, but that's just my opinion.

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#70 Wigswag
January 16 2014, 11:47AM
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Jonathan Willis wrote:

Player shot attempts percentages with and without Hall this season:

  • RNH: 43% with/46.9% w-o/-3.9% change
  • Eberle: 46.2% with/47.7% w-o/-1.5% change
  • Gagner: 39.3% with/47.7% w-o/-8.4% change
  • Hemsky: 40.8% with/50.0% w-o/-9.2% change
  • Perron: 40.8% with/48.7% w-o/-7.9% change
  • Arco: 49.0% with/48.6% w-o/+0.4% change
  • Yakupov: 40.0% with/47.2% w-o/-7.2% change

That's the whole list of forwards to play more than an hour with Hall this year.

Some of it's likely related to getting tough competition, but the pattern seems pretty clear.

All this means is Taylor Hall has the puck more when they play with him.

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#71 nina russo
January 16 2014, 11:47AM
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Jonathan Willis wrote:

Player shot attempts percentages with and without Hall this season:

  • RNH: 43% with/46.9% w-o/-3.9% change
  • Eberle: 46.2% with/47.7% w-o/-1.5% change
  • Gagner: 39.3% with/47.7% w-o/-8.4% change
  • Hemsky: 40.8% with/50.0% w-o/-9.2% change
  • Perron: 40.8% with/48.7% w-o/-7.9% change
  • Arco: 49.0% with/48.6% w-o/+0.4% change
  • Yakupov: 40.0% with/47.2% w-o/-7.2% change

That's the whole list of forwards to play more than an hour with Hall this year.

Some of it's likely related to getting tough competition, but the pattern seems pretty clear.

This is the best Stat and should have been the focal point of the article in my opinion.

EVERY player (except Arcobello who remained roughly the same) got WORSE while playing with Hall -- saw their relative shooting percentages drop -- that is the most important Stat because it reflects the effectiveness of the player relative to his line mates.

Leaving quality of shots aside, this is cause for concern.

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#72 etownman
January 16 2014, 11:51AM
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There are lot's of things happening on the ice that have an bearing on the numbers of individual players! Personal injury that may be hampering him, bad goals which have been abundant this year, frequently changed linemates etc. One thing I'm most happy to see with Hallsy is that he isn't going to take any cheap crap anymore! Hall is doing just fine thank you very much!

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#73 **
January 16 2014, 11:53AM
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The thing that worries me the most is that Taylor himself believes what Mac Tavish and Eakins are telling him, that his game is improving. How is going to get better if he already things is doing pretty good?. This is a terrible example of Oilers mismanagement of player development.

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#74 pkam
January 16 2014, 11:54AM
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Jonathan Willis wrote:

Basically that while the superficial appearance (points) hasn't changed, the way they're coming has changed dramatically, and not in a good way.

I don't know why, but in previous cases this sort of thing has eventually resulted in a pretty significant drop-off in production.

The message is basically this: something has changed for the worse and the Oilers won't get away with it forever.

That is the message that I initially get from your article, kind of like the warning 2 years ago about Eberle high S%.

Then came your post of the 2 plausible reasons and both will be temporary and not permanent, which contradicts the message I read from the article.

So at the end, the message I get is a warning that we shouldn't have to worry as it is most likely temporary and not permanent. That is where I got confused. And now another one that says we won't get away with it?

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#75 nina russo
January 16 2014, 11:57AM
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Rama Lama wrote:

I totally agree with this article.........tough questions to ask but justified. Every part of our game has regressed, PP, PK, 5 on 5, Goals for, Goals against, you name it.

Eakins has totally lost this team and most astute observers can see this in the way players have reacted to his systems. This coach is too busy preening himself in front of the media ........this seems to be the only skill he has.

I for one believe that Mac T's biggest mistake was to listen to this egomaniac and then fall for his double speak. We were on the right track with Krueger.......he had the ears and respect of the players.

I agree with the first part, but Krueger wasn't the answer. He may have been an effective assistant coach, but not a guy to drive and inspire this team to greatness. This eam needs to get behind a guy that knows how to lead ... like a Patrick Roy in Colorado but with more experience and a proven ability yet young enough to relate to the youth on this team.

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#76 BC BOY
January 16 2014, 11:57AM
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Or maybe the Oilers are a worst team this year? Can't blame Hall for what the other four guys are doing on the ice. Its not his fault our defence struggles to advance the puck and can't break up cycles. Plus he is either playing with gagner or hopkins and both are bad in the face off circle.

I agree with Mactavish I do see him maturing and not turning the puck over as much. You can also see his effort is better on the backcheck. So to me growth as an individual in a young player seems more important than a stat that is partially team oriented.

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#77 BIGDAWG
January 16 2014, 12:04PM
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Hall was only in the Top 10 in scoring last year and if he keeps up his currant pace(which doesnt seem to be slowing down) he will be in the top 10 again.. Run the numbers all you want but this 22 yr old stud is coming along just fine.. Stop looking for things to nit pick

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#78 Bicepus Maximus - Huge fan boy!
January 16 2014, 12:09PM
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Not sure it's fair to compare a player's Corsi from year to year without normalizing the data.

If today's NHL teams are built to win by dominating the possession game by wearing teams down, a good player will not have as much of an impact when his team is getting steamrolled, shift in and shift out, game in and game out.

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#79 Oil Kings 'n' Pretty Things
January 16 2014, 12:19PM
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GriffCity wrote:

Tough questions? Or stupid ones? I certainly don't have any problem with articles or questions that "ruffle feathers" but when it's a bunch of drivel, then that's something else.

Why not write an article on how players face-off percentage is lower on days when they shave their beards, or how too much sock tape can be a bad thing? Those would make as much sense as the correlations in these ridiculous blogs.

Just saying, there are other players to criticize more before Hall.

What you said earlier was that you wanted JW to criticize a player who is already a consensus goat - unless I'm totally misinterpreting your post.

I'm starting to doubt that you actually read the article. Willis is not suggesting that Taylor Hall is the problem with the Edmonton Oilers.

This is much closer to a meteorologist saying that the barometric pressure outside is dropping. I wouldn't bet my life on rain but I'll probably toss an umbrella in the back seat of my car because more often than not it's a pretty decent indicator.

Similarly, Willis is pointing out that there are some indicators in Taylor Hall's advanced statistics that often accompany a drop-off in production. This doesn't mean that he's going to crap out and put up a 30-point season next year, but it's certainly something to think about. A good reaction - as many "by eye" observers have already mentioned - would be for MacT to hedge by surrounding Hall with a better supporting cast so dips in his individual production don't directly translate to team losses.

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#80 A-Mc
January 16 2014, 12:25PM
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Too much analysis...

Reading this article and thinking about it makes me feel like I'm over thinking things. There is nothing to worry about with Taylor.

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#81 Tikkanese
January 16 2014, 12:26PM
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Dman09 wrote:

Any chance we could see the quality of the defense-men that Hall has played with for last season and the current?

I just get the feeling that the quality of defense-men has gone down since last season.

I agree. The answer to "there is something wrong with Hall" is nothing. It is the play of the defense and the team in general.

It is a team game last I checked. We can all see the improvements in Hall's game week to week. Almost never toe drags any more, is starting to dump it in instead of trying to beat 3 guys by himself, etc.

His other winger for the majority of the season has been either Eberle or Yakupov and neither of them have taken a step forward this season.

The failed Hall at center experiment also hurts his stats. Do not forget that.

The defense including JW's favourite Petry, has been pretty abysmal overall. I don't think there is anything wrong with Hall.

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#82 rubbertrout
January 16 2014, 12:29PM
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So are you saying that shouting "SHOOOOT!" from the stands or at the TV won't actually help?

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#83 Jason Gregor
January 16 2014, 12:34PM
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@Jonathan Willis

If the stats suggest every player got worse playing with Hall, it is possible that the stat might have some flaws?

Why are the players seemingly "playing better" without Hall, yet they aren't producing actual points, outside of Perron, who played very well for a 6-week stretch?

I'm curious if there are comparables for that, or are Hall's 45 games just an oddity.

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#84 S cottV
January 16 2014, 12:34PM
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RNH is going to get progressively better and in 2 to 3 years, he will be a dominant 1C.

Hopefully - Hall will get a bigger / tougher - go to the blue paint goal scorer - sniper, on the opposite wing.

Hopefully - Hall will get legitimate first pairing d men in the back end at some point in time.

In the meantime, he has to adjust his game - keeping it simpler with more emphasis on all 200 feet out there. While maybe a short termnegative having to worry about this stuff, it will make him a more complete player anyway.

When it all comes together, Hall with better complimentary players around him and Hall a better 200 foot player in his own right - it will be a very awesome sight.

Advanced stats will be off the charts, plus minus will be great and more importantly - the Oilers will be in a position to be a contender.

In the meantime, the advanced stats cant be ignored. Hall has to continue working on his overall game and adjusting to the realities of who he plays with at this point in time.

Otherwise - yeah he will get points, but the top line will go minus on the night and the Oilers will just keep on losing.

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#85 Oil Kings 'n' Pretty Things
January 16 2014, 12:34PM
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Bicepus Maximus - Huge fan boy! wrote:

Not sure it's fair to compare a player's Corsi from year to year without normalizing the data.

If today's NHL teams are built to win by dominating the possession game by wearing teams down, a good player will not have as much of an impact when his team is getting steamrolled, shift in and shift out, game in and game out.

This is an interesting thought. I'm definitely not an advanced stats kind of a guy, but I would imagine - based on the fact that the team's shot differential is better this year than it was last year - that normalizing the data would amplify the observed phenomenon, wouldn't it?

2012 - 2013 shot differential: -6.0
2013 - 2014 shot differential: -4.3

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#86 K_Mart
January 16 2014, 12:36PM
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I agree that something has changed for the worse, but isn't Hall. Hall is definitely playing better than ever. Unfortunately he has had the worst luck with breakdowns from all linemates while he's out there. Having linemates that seem to always play a poor defensive game with hall makes him look bad because he's the common denominator. But in this case it's clear that he isn't the problem. The shot and chance differential this year is not his fault.

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#87 K_Mart
January 16 2014, 12:39PM
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Also.... Why is corsi labeled as 'advenced' when over time it pretty much just matches up to the shot differential and scoring chance differential?

There's nothing advanced about corsi, Fenwick, or SCA, ETC..

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#88 Oil Kings 'n' Pretty Things
January 16 2014, 12:40PM
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I wonder if part of the explanation lies in how often Hall's scoring chances result in odd-man rushes in the opposite direction. That would seemingly explain why people see Hall's game as improving, while the stats show that the shot differential when he's on the ice is less-favourable than it was last year.

Basically what I'm getting at is... are the Oilers' inexperienced defencemen more likely to pinch or get out of position when Hall's on the ice because they see more opportunities for offence?

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#89 Bigfan
January 16 2014, 12:41PM
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I have often wondered how a player could ever 'give it 110%'. Math-wise, it is not possible. Now, finally, a statistic showing this happening! Hall is over 100% in his IPP stat, even though it is not possible math-wise. Go Taylor! If the rest of team follows, then these years of gloom will be over.

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#90 Oil Kings 'n' Pretty Things
January 16 2014, 12:45PM
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Bigfan wrote:

I have often wondered how a player could ever 'give it 110%'. Math-wise, it is not possible. Now, finally, a statistic showing this happening! Hall is over 100% in his IPP stat, even though it is not possible math-wise. Go Taylor! If the rest of team follows, then these years of gloom will be over.

It is absolutely possible, math-wise. You don't have to be on the ice when a goal happens to be credited with an assist for the goal if you helped set it up before you went off on a change.

What the stat describes - unless I'm mistaken - is that Hall was on the ice when X goals occurred, he was directly involved in Y goals, and that Y is greater than X.

Edit: I went back and looked at the article, and 107% seemed really high to be explained away by the situation described above, even though we're only talking about like 30 GF YTD. I'm thinking that somewhere down the line, Hall's GF have been underreported. I found this chart, and Dec 5/13 sticks out like a sore thumb. Hall had a hat trick that night and added an assist, and he's only credited with 1 GF. I don't know what the explanation for that is.

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#91 Pizzy
January 16 2014, 12:46PM
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Willis, your an Idiot! Do you even watch the hockey games? Just another article that proves your advance stats are a joke. Taylor Hall is a stud and by far the best Oiler. Plus your choice of a title for this article is bush league! 83 goals, 107 assists, 190 points in 213 games! Ya, what is wrong with this guy?

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#92 Ol' Jase
January 16 2014, 12:48PM
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As the numbers you have cited here seem to be completely inconsistent with those on behindthenet.ca, one of the sources of raw data is not accurate, throwing all these types of analysis into question.

One would think that a player showing more EV points that being on the ice for when EV goals are scored would wave a red flag. Instead, you have used it as the crux of your analysis.

Very questionable logic to say the least.

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#93 S cottV
January 16 2014, 01:09PM
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Oil Kings 'n' Pretty Things wrote:

I wonder if part of the explanation lies in how often Hall's scoring chances result in odd-man rushes in the opposite direction. That would seemingly explain why people see Hall's game as improving, while the stats show that the shot differential when he's on the ice is less-favourable than it was last year.

Basically what I'm getting at is... are the Oilers' inexperienced defencemen more likely to pinch or get out of position when Hall's on the ice because they see more opportunities for offence?

It would be more likely that Hall's line mates do not sufficiently adjust, on an attack led by Hall.

Attacking requires width and depth between the 3 forwards on that line. The drive wide - say by Hall, a line mate going to the back post creating width and a line mate backed off, puck side creating depth.

The depth is for offensive back pass support but also - just as important, is a defensive safety valve - in case of a turnover and counter attack.

The Hall line in general, is much too quick to abandon depth in their attacks. They tend to press all in - deep, and leave themselves open to 3 on 2 counter attacks.

In addition, they tend to carry more than they should and pass east - west more than they should, resulting in the same thing. If the puck carrier gets stripped of the puck, with his line mates pressing forward - it is often a 3 on 2 counterattack. Same with an errant - east west pass that gets picked off through the middle.

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#94 K_Mart
January 16 2014, 01:10PM
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"Jordan Eberle is probably the best recent Oilers example because people will remember the debate following his breakthrough 2011-12 campaign (76 points in 78 games). In the 96 games since he has a total of 74 points, a 63-point pace over 82 games. It’s a fall that was predicted for the same reasons I’ve cited above with Hall."

Hmm.... in this article

http://oilersnation.com/2012/7/16/how-many-goals-will-jordan-eberle-score-next-season

You seem to say Eberle's goal total will drop because his SHOOTING PERCENTAGE is too high and assume that his shot total will stay the same. But here you're saying it's the team's shot differential with hall on the ice as the problem. But yet you claim to say you cited the same reasons for predicting eberle's drop...

Either you're lying, or you've forgotten the reasons behind your prediction with Ebs.

Anyway, Hall had strong shot differential numbers for 3 straight years. I'm surprised you aren't saying that it's more likely this is an anomaly and over the next 100+ games he should regress to the norm... or in this case PROgress to his norm.

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#95 Dog Train
January 16 2014, 01:11PM
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I understand that advanced stats can be useful but I think they can be overdone at times. Hall got off to a rough start to the season but from what I have seen, he has bounced back nicely. Regardless of the opposition, I think the fact that he gets so much ice time on such a brutal team makes him more likely to be on for chances against than for chances for.

Again, I appreciate the advanced stats articles because they generate great debate but I still believe that Taylor Hall is more a part of the solution than he is of the problem.

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#96 marty62
January 16 2014, 01:22PM
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Statistics are a wonderful thing, properly manipulated you can make them back up whatever point you see fit. In the midst of our Oilers having one of the worst seasons I can remember, you choose to write an article picking holes in the game of one of our young kids that is making the most of what he can in a very bad season that has had a lot of hurdles for him. If you watch the games closely at all, you don't have to use advanced stats to see that Hall as well as many of the other Oilers are struggling defensively and offensively this year. What you don't seem to see is that Hall is finding a way to get it done despite all this. I would rather you take your slide rule and calculator and go spread your bad vibes somewhere else please.

Thanks

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#97 curcro
January 16 2014, 01:47PM
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marty62 wrote:

Statistics are a wonderful thing, properly manipulated you can make them back up whatever point you see fit. In the midst of our Oilers having one of the worst seasons I can remember, you choose to write an article picking holes in the game of one of our young kids that is making the most of what he can in a very bad season that has had a lot of hurdles for him. If you watch the games closely at all, you don't have to use advanced stats to see that Hall as well as many of the other Oilers are struggling defensively and offensively this year. What you don't seem to see is that Hall is finding a way to get it done despite all this. I would rather you take your slide rule and calculator and go spread your bad vibes somewhere else please.

Thanks

Nothing at all wrong with looking at the performance of a person and seeing if underlying statistics indicate he will continue on his track.

For instance, if you had a sales person who in month A - made $1.2M in sales on 25 clients, then in month B - made $1.4M in sales on 20 clients, then in month C - made $1.2M in sales on 21 clients, and then in month D made $1.5M sales on 14 clients.

Although the figure that matters is consistent and good, there is a trend there that tells me perhaps it may not continue.

Same is with any of the players on the Oilers.

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#98 DrunkGuyTy
January 16 2014, 01:48PM
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Why do other players feel they can relax just because Hall is on the ice to drive the play?

Why must you take the single most positive thing this team has going for it a find a way to put a negative spin on it?

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#99 Bleed blue
January 16 2014, 01:49PM
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Bad coaching. Period.

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#100 The Real Scuba Steve
January 16 2014, 02:13PM
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This may sound kind of weird but this trade sure came fast after all media and fans were gunning for Kevin Lowe, think maybe a little part it has to with putting the spotlight on these trades instead of the Hockey God Kevin Lowe thinks he is?

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