There is something wrong with Taylor Hall

Jonathan Willis
January 16 2014 09:05AM

 

According to the general manager Edmonton Oilers, Taylor Hall is coming along nicely as a hockey player. He is making good decisions and playing better than ever this season.

Maybe he's right. But the data emphatically points to something having gone sideways in the game of the Oilers’ best offensive player.

MacTavish

David Staples, in his fantastic interview with Craig MacTavish last week, mentioned to the G.M. that most of the Oilers’ young stars had seen their play slide under Dallas Eakins. MacTavish disagreed, and specifically noted Hall’s play.

“I don’t think it’s accurate in what I’m seeing,” said MacTavish. “When you talk to people that know hockey very well they will tell you that they are seeing structural changes in Taylor Hall. His game is changing.”

MacTavish specifically noted Hall’s play on a goal against Tampa Bay on January 5:

MacTavish described the play as “living to fight another day” – Hall opting for the dump-in rather than trying to beat two players and turning the puck over and favourably compared that style of play to the one employed by Anaheim’s top line.

The Data

Here’s the thing: if Hall’s game has improved, over time we should see that in the results. So, for example, if he’s avoiding the bad high-risk plays he did in years past we should (all else being equal) expect to see that reflected in numbers like his shots against totals. If his two-way play overall is improved, the Oilers should be out-chancing the opposition more frequently than they have in prior years.

But that isn’t what’s happening.

The chart above looks complicated, but it’s really very simple. What we’re looking at is Oilers shot totals with Hall on and off the ice over the last two seasons.

Last year, Edmonton out-shot their opposition by six shots an hour with Hall on the ice. They were out-shot by nearly 10 shots per hour with Hall off the ice; in other words, the Oilers shot differential improved by 16 (a massive, massive number) when Hall stepped on the ice.

This year, it’s a disaster. The Oilers have actually improved significantly with Hall off the ice – instead of getting out-shot by 10 shots per hour, they’re only being out-shot by half that (and yes, that’s pathetic, but it still represents a pretty big improvement). The problem is that suddenly the Oilers are terrible with Hall on the ice. Not only are they allowing 2.5 shots more per hour than they did a year ago, but they’ve gone from generating 36 shots per hour with Hall on the ice down to 27. That’s a massive drop, a 25 percent reduction in shots for.

Well, maybe Hall’s playing tougher minutes. Except that he isn’t; we can go back and look at who Hall is playing and to quote from that linked Tyler Dellow post, “At home, where Eakins has more control over the matchups, Hall seems to be getting matchups as easy or easier than last year.”

Well, is Eakins is starting him less in the offensive zone? Nope; according to Behind the Net 55 percent of Hall’s non-neutral zone shifts were in the offensive zone last season. This year that number is 57 percent.

Hall’s still scoring, but if the shot numbers don’t improve that isn’t going to last.

The chart above shows two statistics. The first is on-ice shooting percentage, and there’s a pretty clear pattern. With Hall on the ice in three of the last four years, the Oilers have done a slightly better job than the NHL average of finishing on their shots, scoring on between 9.0 and 9.5 percent of all shots taken. This year, the total is 11.3 percent.

That means either the Oilers’ top line has evolved into the league’s best finishing line… or it’s riding a streak of goals going in that isn’t going to last.

The second number is “individual points percentage,” which is a fancy way of saying the percentage of goals a player is on the ice for that he gets points on. So a player who is on the ice for 10 goals and picks up nine points, he would have an IPP of 90.0 percent. What we’ve found looking over years of data is that some years a player picks up points on a weirdly high number of the goals scored when he’s on the ice (generally coinciding with a career year) and sometimes doesn’t get those points (generally coinciding with a terrible points year). Over time, though, those totals average out.

Sidney Crosby is the best player in the league at this (big surprise, he’s driving the offence on his line) and generally averages out in the 85 percent range. Taylor Hall topped 90 percent last year and this season is over 100 percent - somehow he has 29 five-on-five points despite only being on the ice for 27 five-on-five goals.

All of this is a long way of saying that Taylor Hall’s great point totals are not to be trusted. The Oilers aren’t generating shots when he’s on the ice. He’s getting away with it because Edmonton is scoring on a high percentage of their shots when he’s on the ice and because he’s picking up points on all of those goals and some other ones besides. History suggests, rather strongly, that these things will not continue.

What to Make of It All

So we find ourselves in a situation where the data we have directly contradicts the statements of the general manager. MacTavish sees Hall’s play as progressing nicely; the data says he’s fallen off a cliff.

Neither of these is to be dismissed lightly.

MacTavish was an excellent coach in Edmonton, something which was dramatically emphasized by what happened to the team when he was replaced by Pat Quinn. He knows much, much more about how players should execute a system than I do, and much, much more than the comments section here knows too.

On the other hand, I’ve lost track of the number of players I’ve seen riding a percentage bubble who have seen their numbers fall dramatically in the years that followed. Jordan Eberle is probably the best recent Oilers example because people will remember the debate following his breakthrough 2011-12 campaign (76 points in 78 games). In the 96 games since he has a total of 74 points, a 63-point pace over 82 games. It’s a fall that was predicted for the same reasons I’ve cited above with Hall.

I hate to disagree with MacTavish, but the data has been awfully reliable in the past and there’s really only one way to interpret it. Something has gone sideways with Hall’s game this season.

Recently by Jonathan Willis

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Jonathan Willis is a freelance writer. He currently works for Oilers Nation, Sportsnet, the Edmonton Journal and Bleacher Report. He's co-written three books and worked for myriad websites, including Grantland, ESPN, The Score, and Hockey Prospectus. He was previously the founder and managing editor of Copper & Blue.
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#51 RexHolez
January 16 2014, 05:20PM
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Plus I hate stat guys like Willis. You argue that shots are the only way to judge how good a player is?? If I was jones I'd put absolutely everything on net from anywhere and I'd become Willis' favorite player

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#52 cambosmash
January 16 2014, 10:09AM
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It looks like Hall has improved his game in the offensive end. He is able to control the puck on the boards and keep possession for long periods of time once they've gained the zone. His TOs at the offensive blueline seem to have decreased. He has become a monster on the offensive boards.

In the defensive zone he's getting pushed off the puck. He attempts backpasses through the legs numerous times a game to get the puck out near the blueline. He has issues clearing the puck and gives the other team possession back frequently. He has become a 12-year old girl on the d-zone boards.

I have no idea how he can regress so much in the defensive zone that it's counteracting and even overcoming how much he's improved his possession in the O-zone.

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#53 Sisyphus
January 16 2014, 10:18AM
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Nothing is wrong with Hall. The coach is trying to teach defensive skill (admittedly, not teaching very well, but that's another issue). Long story short is, MANY very talented offensive players struggle when learning this side of the game. However, they normally have other skilled teammates who can pick up the slack in the learning process. T. Hall does not--it's a one-man show most nights, and he cannot do it all himself.

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#54 pkam
January 16 2014, 11:08AM
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Jonathan Willis wrote:

I do want to make one point which I think most have picked up on. We're comparing Hall's underlying numbers to his fantastic performance last season. I don't think there's any doubt that Hall is an exceptional player, and given that his talent is bound to win the day eventually.

His underlying numbers have dipped sharply this season, and I only see two plausible possibilities: coaching or injury. If it's coaching it might be a case of short-term pain for long-term gain or it might be that Kreuger had a better idea of how to deal with the player than Eakins does. If it's injury, he'll heal. In either case, I doubt we're looking at a permanent drop-off.

So in summary, you wrote an article with some stats of a phenomenon that is not obvious to us, and that you do not know what is causing it, and you think this phenomenon is only temporary and will not last?

So what is the focal point, or the message, of this article?

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#55 Wigswag
January 16 2014, 11:47AM
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Jonathan Willis wrote:

Player shot attempts percentages with and without Hall this season:

  • RNH: 43% with/46.9% w-o/-3.9% change
  • Eberle: 46.2% with/47.7% w-o/-1.5% change
  • Gagner: 39.3% with/47.7% w-o/-8.4% change
  • Hemsky: 40.8% with/50.0% w-o/-9.2% change
  • Perron: 40.8% with/48.7% w-o/-7.9% change
  • Arco: 49.0% with/48.6% w-o/+0.4% change
  • Yakupov: 40.0% with/47.2% w-o/-7.2% change

That's the whole list of forwards to play more than an hour with Hall this year.

Some of it's likely related to getting tough competition, but the pattern seems pretty clear.

All this means is Taylor Hall has the puck more when they play with him.

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#56 Pizzy
January 16 2014, 12:46PM
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Willis, your an Idiot! Do you even watch the hockey games? Just another article that proves your advance stats are a joke. Taylor Hall is a stud and by far the best Oiler. Plus your choice of a title for this article is bush league! 83 goals, 107 assists, 190 points in 213 games! Ya, what is wrong with this guy?

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#57 RexHolez
January 16 2014, 05:17PM
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There is somthing wrong with Hall. It's called who cares if we win. the season is over and the team I've been playing on for 4 years sucks

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#58 Taylor Gang
January 16 2014, 05:36PM
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No offense Willis, but to suggest something is "wrong" with Hall because he doesn't generate as many shots is absurd. Besides, what point are you proving by writing this article? Even the most casual of fans can simply look up his boxcars and realize he is leading this team in points despite playing in fewer games than second place. In conclusion, take a step back and don't suggest he took a turn for the worse in his development, because from where the hockey world is looking this player is becoming more well rounded every game.

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#59 J.R.
January 16 2014, 07:14PM
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Oh yeah, Taylor Hall is a terrible hockey player who is obviously on the rapid decline.

He clearly brings the whole team down. Trade him now if you can (as if any other GM would be stupid enough to take him). We'd be lucky to get a bag of pucks back for a bum like him.

Seriously, the language in this article is over the top bordering on ludicrous. You lost me on this one Mr. Willis.

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#60 Freewheeling Freddie
January 16 2014, 09:18PM
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JASON wrote:

I would suggest to you, Freddie, that the better teams do CARE about advanced stats. They just don't WORRY about it too much because their #'s are good. Hence the win's.

Oilers advanced stats are not so good. Hence the losses.

Better teams are only concerned with the playoffs .Once a team reaches 16 wins they hoist the cup not a corsi number or advanced stat.Believe me when the oilers make the playoffs nobody will care about advanced stats.

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#61 Mike Krushelnyski
January 16 2014, 10:57PM
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@Kent Wilson

The writer of this one looks like a giant baby

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#62 Steveo
January 16 2014, 10:16AM
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I think it's way to much over analysis. There is way more to hockey that advanced stats show.

Since when did hockey become all about advanced stats and cap space? Seems more and more like accounting lately than a hockey game.

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#63 Truth
January 16 2014, 10:23AM
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MacT wrote:

Willis, no story here MOVE ON!!! Hall is a great player ...try and be more creative in your posts!

You're reading this!? You should have requested a second opinion after reading Willis' article on overvaluing your players. You dropped the ball on that Hendricks trade yesterday.

Just let us all know, on which extremity does Lowe wear his Stanley Cup rings?

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#64 Truth
January 16 2014, 10:35AM
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@Fish

Could be quite the opposite. If he was a much better player in his first seasons here they should remove the curfew. He used to be a regular at a few spots on Friday and Saturday nights.

I still think it comes down to coaching. It's the reverse Perron, if Hall played with Hitch in St.Louis, or god forbid under Lemaire in the old Wild system I would guess his numbers would be ugly.

Krueger was admittedly run and gun, create chances off the transition. That plays directly to Hall's strengths. Eakins is a get the puck in the corner, turn it over, cycle the puck, create a matchup problem or defensive lapse, and create a scoring chance. Not Hall's game at all.

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#65 Kr55
January 16 2014, 10:55AM
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Is Eakins trying to turn us into the Leafs? Playing a dumb style of hockey that completely depends on luck to win? Then claim to everyone you're a genius and everything you're getting players to do is the right thing and stats guys are dumb.

Guess he did come from the leafs system, so it's not that much of a stretch.

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#66 Ed in Edmonton
January 16 2014, 11:29AM
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Interesting article. Keep up the good work.

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#67 eljosho
January 16 2014, 09:59AM
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Is it anything to do with D pairings on the ice with Hall? Not sarcasm, just curious

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#68 GriffCity
January 16 2014, 10:16AM
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Hall's play has been hot and cold I will give you that much but certainly not deserving of an entire article. Not when players such as Gagner and Eberle have been doing far worse this season. Hall is still the Oilers best offensive player.

I kind of hate having to rag on you JW but so many of your write ups have no substance to them. If you're going to criticize, do it on a player that everyone will agree on, trust me there are several to choose from.

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#69 Dave
January 16 2014, 10:40AM
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DisappointedFan wrote:

Here's a good read for you Willis

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Correlation_does_not_imply_causation

I swear to God this is only a revelation to the people who bring it up. Willis knows this. Everyone knows this. It isn't a bloody epiphany. It also doesn't imply things are completely unrelated either so let us drop the high school philosophy crap and get back to reality.

Something has made Taylor Hall's numbers dip. Maybe it's the coach, maybe it's luck, or maybe the Oilers franchise is a negative vortex that absorbs talent and it has finally impacted Hall. But most of his numbers are down, and the ones that aren't are *likely* to go down as well, because there is a correlation between underlying numbers being bad and then the scoring numbers going down (and that correlation remains true even if the cause is unrelated).

Having Eakins as the coach is the first true departure from the old guard since Renney and Krueger were both with the young kids from the start, so maybe it's part of transitioning to learn a new style of play. Do we have numbers looking at if he's slowly getting better as the year goes by? That might suggest it's part of his learning curve (and I wonder if there was a similar curve when he cracked the NHL).

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#70 Dqgc
January 16 2014, 10:43AM
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@Jonathan Willis

I see a couple other possibilities:

Could it be possibile that a young rich athlete is enjoying to excess the many fruits and temptations that are available to young rich men? It wouldn't be the first time, and, with nothing to play for except pride and stats... (Could Eakins' 8am practices be a team internal way of handling?)

Or maybe it's not so nefarious - maybe just human nature that when there's "nothing to play for" in a 22 year old mind, that subconsciously that extra gear stays in reserve?

Or could it be his shoulder? Or maybe it's because we're in the Pacific division this year?

But a good article none-the-less. If nothing else it could start some entertaining controversy.

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#71 Still Hoping
January 16 2014, 11:18AM
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"When you talk to people that know hockey very well they will tell you that they are seeing structural changes in Taylor Hall. His game is changing.”

If Mac - T was so smart he would know that people who KNOW hockey, are talking about the Oilers Management behind closed doors just like Burke talk about Ryan.

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#73 A-Mc
January 16 2014, 12:25PM
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Too much analysis...

Reading this article and thinking about it makes me feel like I'm over thinking things. There is nothing to worry about with Taylor.

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#74 Freewheeling Freddie
January 16 2014, 03:49PM
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Jonathan Willis wrote:

As wins and losses are the only stat that matters, what do wins and losses tell you about whether David Perron is better off with Hall or with Yakupov. Also, I'm curious about whether Eric Staal or Colin Fraser would be a better addition to the Oilers - and I'm really, really interested in how the wins and losses answer that.

I'll hang up and wait for your wins-and-losses driven answer to those questions.

When free agents are deciding to go to a team, do you think they care about the advanced stats or corsi numbers on another team? No I would think they would care more about a teams wins and losses. Most tier 1 free agents want to go to a team that puts up several W'S. Did'nt Colin Fraser get a Stanley cup ring?

Do you really believe the Hawks and Ducks care about advanced stats? No they care about the W'S

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#75 Kent Wilson
January 16 2014, 10:29PM
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Feel free to argue or disagree all you want folks, but the ban hammer is going to come out for those issuing personal attacks at the writers of this site.

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#76 The Real Scuba Steve
January 16 2014, 10:23AM
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Too bad no other player is feeding on his evolution of his game, What happens when Hall is comfortable with his game and is sick of his team? Hemsky made the play-offs what? 3 times in his whole career while playing for us. I don't think Taylor Hall will finish his contact here, and that is being realistic.

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#77 Fish
January 16 2014, 10:29AM
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Not saying he isn't a great player, but there could be a link.

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#78 NewfoundlandOil
January 16 2014, 10:52AM
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http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/games/1345952/edmonton-oilers-vs-dallas-stars/

Here is the link to the highlights of the Stars game.

WRT Taylor Hall, he, Nuge and Gagner are on the ice for 2 of the goals against, but from what I see Hall's positioning is excellent and he is covering his man. On two occasions his linemates blow coverage to allow a goal against. I know we are talking shots here but lets assume these serve as examples.

At 15 seconds, the first Dallas goal, Ference goes down to try and block the pass but fails and is out of the play. Nuge gets knocked down in front of the net and loses his man. Hall is covering the winger in the far circle. Schultz id late to come back (I believe he pinched on the play at the other end). Gagner coasts into the zone, knees straight, stick horizontal watching it all unfold. Hall was not the problem on this goal, but tow of his linemates were taken out of the play, one was late coming back and the other (Gagner) just counldn't be bothered....

At 40 seconds, Hall not on the ice but worth a note. On the PK Arcobello way blows his coverage on Jamie Benn on the point which allows the easy pass and gift to Benn.

At 50 seconds, Two D go in deep against two Stars players to try and win the puck battle. Hall is on his side on the half wall available for the outlet pass. Both Nuge and Gagner (both playing center at this point) are late to the show. Neither gets a man and are seen turning up ice as the goal is scored.

Just a couple examples from the last game where I note, in this context: 1) Hall's positioning is good, but his assignment is not primarily as a defensive forward, he is the outlet man. 2) Horrible blown coverage by Ference, Schultz, Arcobello, Gagner and Nuge directly led to these goals. 3) Is this what Eakins means when he states he assumed the team could play basic defense?

I know the WOWY suggests otherwise but I still wonder if its these types of plays, Hall's specific deployment as an offense first guy, and consistent blown coverage by his linemates are having an impact on his season.

Gagner on the first goal, sheesh skate ffs, get involved. He looked totally disinterested.

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#79 S cottV
January 16 2014, 10:56AM
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I agree with a prior poster, that MacT was probably refering to more recent play and or plays in his assessment of Hall. Trying to spin it more overly positive than it is, which is his job with the media.

The truth is that he still has 200 foot holes in his game to work on. I think he is paying more attention to it, but - still a long ways to go.

To me - Hall has to more fully accept that he is not playing with ideal complimentary players around him, at this point in time.

RNH is not yet a bonafide top 1C in this league. Eberle and Gagner are small and Gagner isn't a natural winger. There are no top pairing d men on the team.

The above adds up to a lot of territorial pressure and the worst thing Hall can do, is to overly try and make up for it. Sure - some making up for it fits his abilities but going too far and it's gonna end up in the back of our net.

One day - hopefully he gets better complimentary players around him but that day is not here and he would do well to more readily accept this.

In the meantime,

More emphasis on north south as opposed to east west.

More dump and forecheck with purpose as opposed to possession entry

More shots on net and going to the net for rebounds, as opposed to trying extra passes for a picture perfect goal.

More awareness for appropriate risk and return on offense as opposed to trying to make something out of nothing. Avoid situations that can easily lead to dangerous counter attacks. Pick your spots - be more patient.

More effort on backchecking / backpressure and be aware of and react to trailer threats from behind, as he has very little awareness of this.

Do your job in your own zone without any shortcuts. Stop sucking solely on the puck. Be aware of whats going on around you and where the puck is. Err to the side of caution and defence - not to clearing the zone ahead of the puck, to get a jump on offense.

Show leadership, interest and enthusiasm for keeping the puck out of our net.

This would help the advance stats, plus / minus and result in more Oiler wins...

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#80 billythebullet
January 16 2014, 11:36AM
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What's really interesting to me, is although Halls advanced stats have fallen off the face of the earth, his traditional stats are still magnificent. So on a positive note, I for one, can't wait to see what Halls traditional stats look like when his advanced stats catch up again!

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#81 K_Mart
January 16 2014, 12:39PM
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Also.... Why is corsi labeled as 'advenced' when over time it pretty much just matches up to the shot differential and scoring chance differential?

There's nothing advanced about corsi, Fenwick, or SCA, ETC..

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#82 Marty62
January 16 2014, 02:19PM
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curcro wrote:

Nothing at all wrong with looking at the performance of a person and seeing if underlying statistics indicate he will continue on his track.

For instance, if you had a sales person who in month A - made $1.2M in sales on 25 clients, then in month B - made $1.4M in sales on 20 clients, then in month C - made $1.2M in sales on 21 clients, and then in month D made $1.5M sales on 14 clients.

Although the figure that matters is consistent and good, there is a trend there that tells me perhaps it may not continue.

Same is with any of the players on the Oilers

You missed my point. I was stating that its fairly obvious that all the Oilers are struggling on both sides of the ice and getting worse. This must seem like Groundhog day for all of them. They don't need guys like yourself and Willis pointing it out at every opportunity. So pack up your calculator and pocket protector and move on please.

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#83 GregDonaldson
January 16 2014, 03:53PM
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@Jonathon Willis

Big difference between last season and this season is the fact that Hall's line is playing the opposition's 1st line rather than having whatever line Horcoff was on playing them last season.

Playing better opposition will mean that more chances are given up.

Number sometimes lie...or at the very least, don't tell the whole story ;)

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#84 Chris
January 16 2014, 05:32PM
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"Lies lies and damn statistics!" Please stop this madness

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#85 JackFromRedDeer
January 16 2014, 07:28PM
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J.R. wrote:

Exactly.

That's what he is paid to do. Score. 42 GP 45 PTS. Do you people want Taylor Hall to start playing goalie and defense too? He does his job and he does it damn good!

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#86 J.R.
January 16 2014, 07:35PM
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@JackFromRedDeer

Don't get me started on that useless, no talent Nugent-Hopkins kid.

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#87 EasyOil
January 17 2014, 12:36AM
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Wow, a lot of misunderstanding going on in the room tonight.

Willis is of course not saying "Taylor Hall blows and should be traded". Take a step back, breathe, and re-read the article. He's saying that his usually brilliant underlying numbers have taken a huge fall this season, and asking why that is? And in conjunction with that, he's surmising that perhaps some of Hall's offence is the product of inflated percentages. Willis is basing this on similar instances with countless other players, a method that has proven time and time and time again to be correct.

Is it foolproof? No, and JW never claimed it was. It's just another way of measuring a player, and it generally works - if you choose to understand it. If you don't, then don't worry yourself about commenting, you look dumb. It's fine to not care for advanced stats, but don't berate those that do simply because they like to see more data on WHY a player/team is playing the way they are.

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#88 gm_armchair
January 16 2014, 10:41AM
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I think the biggest difference is Hall's linemates and him playing center earlier in the Year. Eakins needs to put Hall and Yakupov together more often, they're a dynamic duo when playing together, for a short stint last year they probably averaged 2 pts a game each, this year they had 2 good games together then Eakins broke them up cuz the third game they didn't generate much.

It's clear that Hall and Yakupov don't like each other very much, but it's better than having Yak and Ebs together on a line who hate each other (I'm only half joking with this last paragraph)..

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#89 Brass Bonanza City
January 16 2014, 11:20AM
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I don't think anyone here would argue that (by numbers or by eye) Hall had a sub-par first couple of months to the season due to playing out of position and being injured (and we don't really have any idea what kind of lasting effects the knee injury had/has on his speed & comfort out there).

You've helpfully shown a split between his linemates' play with and without him from 12/13 to 13/14, but do you have a chart that could show the same split pertaining to Oct/Nov vs. Dec/Jan this season?

I would guess - without looking at an ounce of data, admittedly - that the "quarterly" split would indicate Hallsy's linemates have been much better with him on the ice than w/o over the last 1 1/2 months. And if there is only a slight drop in career numbers vs. his last two months, I'd be pretty comfortable pinning that on Eakins encouraging him to play a stronger & less-risky defensive game.

I understand the numbers don't lie, but how much more accurate, really, is a 3 1/2 month sample vs. a 1 1/2 month sample in this case? I really might be wrong here, just trying to figure out a possible flaw in your logic because he's looked so damned good most nights since November.

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#90 Raine
January 16 2014, 11:33AM
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I think if you are going data, in the NHL it's team influenced, to argue a case against a player you need to look at more recent games when it comes to the Oilers. Especially with Hall considering he started the year at centre and struggled mightily. The team also struggled big time when it came to defense and goaltending at beginning of the season. Those first dozen games need to be ignored, we all know it was a mess - it still is.

I'm not worried about Hall at all. By my eye he is much better than the beginning of the season. Took out some of the riskier plays like the toe drag and trying to burn everyone wide and losing the puck in the corner. MacT is right about those plays being eliminated from his game.

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#92 nina russo
January 16 2014, 11:47AM
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Jonathan Willis wrote:

Player shot attempts percentages with and without Hall this season:

  • RNH: 43% with/46.9% w-o/-3.9% change
  • Eberle: 46.2% with/47.7% w-o/-1.5% change
  • Gagner: 39.3% with/47.7% w-o/-8.4% change
  • Hemsky: 40.8% with/50.0% w-o/-9.2% change
  • Perron: 40.8% with/48.7% w-o/-7.9% change
  • Arco: 49.0% with/48.6% w-o/+0.4% change
  • Yakupov: 40.0% with/47.2% w-o/-7.2% change

That's the whole list of forwards to play more than an hour with Hall this year.

Some of it's likely related to getting tough competition, but the pattern seems pretty clear.

This is the best Stat and should have been the focal point of the article in my opinion.

EVERY player (except Arcobello who remained roughly the same) got WORSE while playing with Hall -- saw their relative shooting percentages drop -- that is the most important Stat because it reflects the effectiveness of the player relative to his line mates.

Leaving quality of shots aside, this is cause for concern.

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#93 etownman
January 16 2014, 11:51AM
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There are lot's of things happening on the ice that have an bearing on the numbers of individual players! Personal injury that may be hampering him, bad goals which have been abundant this year, frequently changed linemates etc. One thing I'm most happy to see with Hallsy is that he isn't going to take any cheap crap anymore! Hall is doing just fine thank you very much!

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#94 BIGDAWG
January 16 2014, 12:04PM
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Hall was only in the Top 10 in scoring last year and if he keeps up his currant pace(which doesnt seem to be slowing down) he will be in the top 10 again.. Run the numbers all you want but this 22 yr old stud is coming along just fine.. Stop looking for things to nit pick

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#95 K_Mart
January 16 2014, 12:36PM
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I agree that something has changed for the worse, but isn't Hall. Hall is definitely playing better than ever. Unfortunately he has had the worst luck with breakdowns from all linemates while he's out there. Having linemates that seem to always play a poor defensive game with hall makes him look bad because he's the common denominator. But in this case it's clear that he isn't the problem. The shot and chance differential this year is not his fault.

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#96 K_Mart
January 16 2014, 01:10PM
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"Jordan Eberle is probably the best recent Oilers example because people will remember the debate following his breakthrough 2011-12 campaign (76 points in 78 games). In the 96 games since he has a total of 74 points, a 63-point pace over 82 games. It’s a fall that was predicted for the same reasons I’ve cited above with Hall."

Hmm.... in this article

http://oilersnation.com/2012/7/16/how-many-goals-will-jordan-eberle-score-next-season

You seem to say Eberle's goal total will drop because his SHOOTING PERCENTAGE is too high and assume that his shot total will stay the same. But here you're saying it's the team's shot differential with hall on the ice as the problem. But yet you claim to say you cited the same reasons for predicting eberle's drop...

Either you're lying, or you've forgotten the reasons behind your prediction with Ebs.

Anyway, Hall had strong shot differential numbers for 3 straight years. I'm surprised you aren't saying that it's more likely this is an anomaly and over the next 100+ games he should regress to the norm... or in this case PROgress to his norm.

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#97 marty62
January 16 2014, 01:22PM
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Statistics are a wonderful thing, properly manipulated you can make them back up whatever point you see fit. In the midst of our Oilers having one of the worst seasons I can remember, you choose to write an article picking holes in the game of one of our young kids that is making the most of what he can in a very bad season that has had a lot of hurdles for him. If you watch the games closely at all, you don't have to use advanced stats to see that Hall as well as many of the other Oilers are struggling defensively and offensively this year. What you don't seem to see is that Hall is finding a way to get it done despite all this. I would rather you take your slide rule and calculator and go spread your bad vibes somewhere else please.

Thanks

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#98 Bleed blue
January 16 2014, 01:49PM
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Bad coaching. Period.

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#99 S cottV
January 16 2014, 02:49PM
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Advance stats are a factor in determining performance in conjunction with "other" factors. No GM or Coach would ignore these stats to "help" size up players, or groups of players on a given team or opposing team.

Playing the odds is something that you wouldnt want to stray too far away from.

Hall is our dominant player, playing on our first line. How the first line goes, is a major factor in whether or not we win or lose.

Whats been happening is the first line generates most of our GF's but in the process -they generate even more GA's.

Hall gets points but the team loses, beyond acceptable levels. Big deal. What's the use?

The advance stats indicate that maybe he can make some adjustments to his game, in conjunction with his line mates - to maybe even reduces GF's a bit, in order to do things that will significantly reduce GA's.

If the first line goes plus or even, more often than not - this team probably gets to .500 hockey on this issue alone.

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#100 Kr55
January 16 2014, 05:24PM
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MacT saying Hall's game is actually better and Eakins raving about how Hall's defensive game has improved tells you all you need to know. Hall is being told to do things that don't work in the NHL and doing it so well that it's making him a less effective player. It's just a case of bad coaching. We're becoming the leafs West now without the awesome goaltending and without the easier conference to play in.

Sucks we're stuck with Eakins 3 more years and MacT loves him because his personality is like a mirror image of MacT's.

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