GDB 56.0: CONFIDENCE BUILDERS

Jason Gregor
January 29 2014 01:01PM

It is amazing how quickly confidence can appear or disappear in pro sports, and right now the Oilers have some. It is difficult to quantify exactly how much it helps, but when most of your players have a healthy dose of confidence your chances of winning increase.

I felt the Oilers played well against Vancouver (at home) and Phoenix, despite losing both games, but that good play carried over to wins over Nashville and Vancouver, and for only the fourth time this season the Oilers have won two straight games.

The Oilers will try to match their season-high three-game winning streak tonight when they take on the very good San Jose Sharks.

It is crazy to think the Oilers have only won consecutive games four times all season. It is hard to build any sort of confidence when you aren't winning, but the Oilers have played four solid games in a row, and despite only winning the last two they are starting to look like a better hockey club.

With games coming up against San Jose and Boston that could change quickly, but heading into tonight the Oilers are feeling good.

POSITIVES...

  • In Vancouver, it was the Canucks turning the puck over at the offensive blueline, twice, that led directly to Oilers goals. We've all witnessed the Oilers continually turn the puck over for the past couples of seasons, but in this short string of games they have cut down those costly mistakes.
     
  • The Oilers have had excellent back pressure from their forwards lately. That has made life much easier for their defenceman, and likely why we've seen fewer glaring mistakes from the D-men.
     
  • The second line won them a game without needing any help from the first line. If the Oilers are ever going to be competitive they need to rely on more than one line. Perron-Gagner-Yakupov was the best line in Vancouver, and they must continue that leading into the Olympic break.
     
  • Martin Marincin continues to play smart, controlled hockey. I'd argue that his simple game has had just as much, and maybe more. of an impact on Petry's play than Petry has had on him. It is a still a very small sample size for Marincin, but he's played well and he has been very active with his stick breaking up plays. He'll need to get stronger in the summer, and if he has to face Marleau or Thornton tonight it will be a very good test for him.
     
  • You need to remain cautious with Marincin. Remember Justin Schultz' first 20 games last year compared to his final 28. It is extremely rare for any young player to avoid a time where they struggle, but so far Marincin has been a pleasant surprise.
     
  • Two games with solid goaltending. Ben Scrivens was solid against the Preds and Bryzgalov played his best game in over a month in Vancouver. They don't have to steal games; they just need to be consistent. This team isn't strong enough yet to overcome weak goals, and for two games the goalies didn't allow a weak goal.
     
  • Some might not like the length of his contract, and that is a valid concern, but Matt Hendricks has increased the Oilers intensity level significantly. Not only does he play hard, he is very vocal and positive on the bench and in the room. Many of the young players have told me how much of a lift his energy and enthusiasm on and off the ice has given them. This team needs a few more vocal leaders, and it seems Hendricks is filling that void.
     
  • That type of contribution won't show up on the stats sheet, but it is vital for success. Not every player can be measured solely on his stats line. Intangibles help. Ask the LA Kings how much Matt Greene's off-ice leadership and humour helped them in their Cup run. He was vital to keeping Doughty focused and relaxed.
     
  • Sam Gagner is playing better. Many of us, myself included, underrated how much that injury impacted his play. I still believe MacTavish needs to change the mix in his top-six in the summer, and if Gagner can have a strong final 27 games that will give MacTavish another trading option.
     
  • Two games is still only two games. The Oilers better not relax or the Sharks will be up 3-0 before they know it. The Oilers must continue to build on their solid play. Like I said earlier, I believe they've played well for four games, and even if they don't win vs. the Sharks or Bruins they must continue to play smart and with some passion.
     
  • Further to Brownlee's article yesterday about the need for success. I agree, and the best part about it is that the Oilers can play well and not impact their draft ranking much at all. The Oilers sit 29th in the NHL with 40 points and 27 games remaining. If they go 14-11-2 they would finish with 70 points.

    Now let's look at who they are chasing.

    The 28th place Flames have 45 points and 29 games left. The Flames would need a combination of wins/OTL totaling 24 point or less for the Oilers to pass them, and that's if the Oilers win 14 games, which is unlikely. So the Flames need to go 11-16-3 or worse.

    Florida is in 27th place with 49 points and 29 games remaining. The Panthers would need 20 points or less for the Oilers to catch them. They'd need to go 9-18-2 or worse for the Oilers to catch them.

    The Islanders are in 26th place with 50 points and 27 games left. They would really need to tank it for the Oilers to gain ten points in 27 games. The Islanders would need to go 9-17-1 for the Oilers to pass them.

    Keep in mind those numbers are based on the Oilers winning 14 of their remaining 27 games. That would be a massive improvement from their first 55.

    The only way I see them not owning a top-three pick is if a team ranked 4th-14th wins the lottery and drops them to 4th. Don't fret if the Oilers win a few games, you should relish them, because they are still a virtual lock to finish in the bottom three and have the opportunity to draft another elite player.
     
  • An interesting read by David Staples on why people shouldn't be that concerned about Taylor Hall's overall game. Those who believe strongly in Corsi will say he's having a bad year, but Staples illustrates that Hall is still producing quality chances, albeit not as many as last year. I feel Corsi can be used as a tool, but like Staples I have an issue in that it punishes or rewards a player for instances that he has no impact in.

    A D-man can stand at the point, while the forwards cycle down low and direct three attempts on goal and he gets +3, despite doing nothing. And in the D-zone a winger can be in the right spot, covering his zone, but the opposite D could lose a battle and give up three chances. Both times the winger and D-man got rewarded or punished for essentially doing nothing more than being in position. Those are just some examples, and I know they aren't the norm but situations similar to those happen in a game. I find there are too many uncontrolled variables pertaining to what a linemate does that can impact an individual's Corsi positively or negatively.

    The suggestion from those supporting Corsi is that Hall can't keep producing at ES with a 43% Corsi, and that eventually the points will decrease because of it. My question is why hasn't it happened already? It has been 55 games and despite a lower Corsi than last year his point totals are virtually identical.

    So far this season we haven't seen his production dip. I split the season into two halves.

    According to Michael Parkatti in Hall's first 20 games (Oilers 27th game) he had a 44% Corsi and was -60.
    In those first 20 games, Hall boxcars were: 20-7-12-19 and he was -8.

    In Hall's next 28 games, again thanks to Parkatti, Hall had a 43.1% and was -117. His Corsi % was a bit lower, but essentially the same.
    During that 28 game stretch Hall's boxcars were: 28-11-21-32 and he was -6.

    So Hall's Corsi dipped, albeit only .09%, but his production went up. The argument has been that he can't maintain his production with that Corsi rating, yet he actually improved his point production over the last 28 games. Maybe it is just too small of a sample size, or maybe, people need to look deeper than just Corsi to assess his overall game.

    I think it is great to have more avenues to look at, but I feel we need to look at all angles, instead of just one to get a a more accurate picture. If people only looked at Hall's Corsi they'd think he was brutal, but his scoring chances for/against and actual production shed a different light.

LINEUP....

Hall-RNH-Eberle
Perron-Gagner-Yakupov
Hendricks-Gordon-Jones
Gazdic-Smyth-Joensuu

Marincin-Petry
N.Schultz-J.Schultz
Belov-Potter

Scrivens

No need to change the skaters and going back to Scrivens makes sense after his game vs. Nashville. Shutting down the offensively challenged Predators (20th) and Canucks (21st) will be much easier than trying to stifle the league's 5th best offence tonight.

Joe Pavelski is 2nd in the NHL in goals, 28, and while Joe Thornton is having another very good season, Pavelski has been their most dangerous threat all season. I suspect Eakins will play Gordon's line against Thornton's, but I think we'll also see Nugent-Hopkins' line match up against them.

TONIGHT...

GAME DAY PREDICTION: The Oilers have won three consecutive games only once this year when they defeated Calgary, Columbus and Florida in a six-day span. This is the Oilers final home game until February 27th and they give their loyal fans a surprising 5-2 victory.

OBVIOUS GAME DAY PREDICTION: The Sharks outshot the Oilers. San Jose has outshot the opposition in 38 of 53 games. They've only been outshot twelve times all season. (The shots were even in three games)

NOT-SO-OBVIOUS GAME DAY PREDICTION: For the first time all year I buy a 50/50 ticket. If I win, I will give $20,000 of it to Nation readers. (four winners of $5,000 each). My question is do I buy the ticket pre-game, first intermission or 2nd intermission? Answer in our poll question.

RECENTLY BY JASON GREGOR 

Ddf3e2ba09069c465299f3c416e43eae
One of Canada's most versatile sports personalities. Jason hosts The Jason Gregor Show, weekdays from 2 to 6 p.m., on TSN 1260, and he writes a column every Monday in the Edmonton Journal. You can follow him on Twitter at twitter.com/JasonGregor
Avatar
#1 Quinn the Eskimo
January 29 2014, 10:33PM
Trash it!
44
trashes
Cheers
17
cheers

TSN calling it the 'best goaltending performance in the expansion era'.

How exactly were we dominated by the sharks? How was Eakins out-coached? That was the best freakin Oiler hockey game I've seen since 2006. Guts, heart, grit and tons of creative skill from guys who give up scores of pounds and feet of height and years of experience. Those lads played their balls off, the coach kept them focused when it looked bad and Scrivens gave them what they needed and if you can't see that then your blind, a hater or a troll. Get a grip.

MacT is making KLowe look good. We are getting harder to beat.

Avatar
#2 pkam
January 29 2014, 01:08PM
Trash it!
37
trashes
Cheers
4
cheers

"I felt the Oilers played well against Vancouver and Phoenix, despite losing both games"

I am pretty sure we beat Vancouver.

Edit: My apology. I just realize JG meant the earlier home game vs Vancouver, not the most recent road game.

Avatar
#3 joshgladu
January 29 2014, 01:50PM
Trash it!
32
trashes
Cheers
7
cheers

The oilers score significantly less with hall on the ice this year compared to last year. Do you not get basic math or something

Avatar
#4 Serious Gord
January 29 2014, 09:14PM
Trash it!
19
trashes
Cheers
9
cheers

Best goaltending performance for the oil this year.

Were it not for that the score would be 5-1 sanjose.

Scrivens was deemed a back-up by two other nhl teams so this one game really needs to be discounted. And the lack of competitiveness of the rest of the team against elite teams remains.

Avatar
#5 Burnward
January 29 2014, 10:24PM
Trash it!
18
trashes
Cheers
9
cheers
@Oilanderp wrote:

You have never seen a better goaltending performance in Edmonton or anywhere else in the NHL. Ever. That is a record.

Ever hear of Ron Tugnutt?

Avatar
#6 dougtheslug
January 29 2014, 10:26PM
Trash it!
16
trashes
Cheers
37
cheers

Incredible. Scrivens gets a shutout and Yakupov is still -1 on the night

Avatar
#7 Deportivo
January 29 2014, 02:30PM
Trash it!
15
trashes
Cheers
5
cheers

+Eakins -Hemsky +Ference = Where are we now?

McT brought in Eakins (I assume that was because they're of the same mind, and he thinks that Eakins can take us further than Krueger), wanted to trade Hemsky, and also brought it Ference. I know that he got involved in other trades but I want to focus on the past two games where both Hemsky and Ference didn't play. In the first games of the year (on top of the infamous "swarm defence") Eakins played Hall as centre (Nuge was injured, and many people agreed with it because he was going to be the new Messier). Things didn't work as planned, but there were also some extra side effects. One of them is that in order to protect Hall, he played him with Smyth and Hemsky and that resulted in to being dropped to the third line. One can see that Yak is a young guy who excels when given confidence (e.g. Krueger) but struggles otherwise (I know...it's a youth issue!). However, that was the "killing" of Yakupov tho year...and together with the swam defence, the "killing" of the Oilers options to improve in the standings with respect to last year. With respect to Ference, if one understands his signing as coming in for Whitney it can be considered a vast improvement. However, Ference has being named Captain and played two or four top minutes. In a way that made expendable Smid (who was a solid component of the team...full disclosure, I'm one of the few guys who own a Smid Oilers shirt, and I like a lot his approach to the game, although I understand his shortcomings). The trade of Smid had a collateral consequence in sending Petry on a bad roller coaster ride (which in fact has ended only when joined with another european denfenceman, M.M., who is keeping things simply in defence and helping Petry that way). The issue is that Eakins is getting things right now by simply using his common sense, so he's going with the first two lines of last year (with the improvement of Perron for Pjaarvi), uses solid third and fourth lines (congratulations to McT for his work on that), and on defence Petry-Marincin are doing Ok, and so are the Schultzs (at this point J. Schultz likes to be "the guy", and he can do it easier with N. Schulz covering his ass, than with Ference who feels that he needs to be the guy too -he's the captain and has one ring-)....although the Belov-Potter pair has a lot of issues (that's where we need Ference!). I'm not surprised that the team won two games with Hemsky and Ference out. Now, these two players still can contribute a lot to the team, mostly if Hemsky accepts (like Smyth did) his new role in the bottom six, and if Ference makes his main job to cover J. Schulz's ass (and nothing else), or well if the Schultz's are playing together and Ference accepts a minor role playing with Below or Potter (or perhaps Fedun or Klefbom...please).

Avatar
#8 Benny Botts
January 29 2014, 03:55PM
Trash it!
15
trashes
Cheers
3
cheers

I love Corsi.....i love corsi..

Avatar
#9 Quinn the Eskimo
January 29 2014, 10:52PM
Trash it!
15
trashes
Cheers
8
cheers
oilersd wrote:

Actually it's both. Sharks system puts the puck behind the d and they use their size to bring the puck to the middle and fire away. They just come in waves. For the much smaller oilers it is an impossible situation. They gotta get bigger to compete. Gagne and yak were invisible tonight.

Yak was lost but Gagner, small as he is, showed some guts and made some smart plays. Looks like he's finding his game. But it's true our boys looked very small out there. The Oiler top line was dangerous every shift and that might cause cocky teams to be wary which might give the D some time and room. If macT gets us a real NHL defenceman, this team could get good very quickly. The subtle trades he's made already have made a big difference in edge and mood. I may be on crack, but I'm one happy fan right now. Cynics should loosen up and enjoy this.

Avatar
#10 Lawndemon
January 29 2014, 09:31PM
Trash it!
13
trashes
Cheers
11
cheers

I've seen some horrible hockey from the Oilers over the last few years. We all have... But this performance, other than Scrivens, transcends the concept of bad.

Worse than bad... Worse than terribad... Not even ultrabad describes the ineptitude the Oilers are showing tonight.

No... This... This is Eakinsbad.

Avatar
#11 Cynic
January 29 2014, 10:33PM
Trash it!
12
trashes
Cheers
27
cheers

Remember when Gagner scored 8 points in a single night?

Avatar
#12 Zarny
January 29 2014, 05:11PM
Trash it!
11
trashes
Cheers
7
cheers

I'm a fan of advanced stats. I love chatting with my bud Rob Vollman about it.

They are one tool, not the tool. And it's going to take a 5 years or so to really see what stats are relevant and how best to apply them.

Avatar
#13 Jakethesnake
January 29 2014, 08:53PM
Trash it!
11
trashes
Cheers
13
cheers

Is there a way to get rid of Big Louie D on sportsnet. The guy is a moron. He loves every player that's not on the oiler team. I can't stand listening to him.

Avatar
#14 Oilbaron
January 29 2014, 10:52PM
Trash it!
11
trashes
Cheers
17
cheers

Can I have the sweater I threw on the ice back?

Avatar
#15 Serious Gord
January 29 2014, 01:57PM
Trash it!
10
trashes
Cheers
7
cheers

It would be a very big breaking of serve for the oil to beat - beat in regulation - an elite team like the sharks. To do so could be seen as a positve sign that the team is actually improving. The sharks are a bit nicked up so that would temper ones judgement a bit.

I have posted earlier that the oil could conceivably win four of their last ten before the Olympic break. They have two wins already and would need just two more to meet that expectation.

Tonight's game will not be one of them.

5-2 San Jose.

Avatar
#16 Muji
January 29 2014, 03:46PM
Trash it!
10
trashes
Cheers
20
cheers

I totally agree with you about advanced stats, Jason.

I was a big fan and supporter of the advanced stats guys before, but have found them to be REALLY annoying lately.

Advanced stats don't tell the whole story. Traditional stats (e.g. points, goals, assists, etc.) tell part of the story. "Seen him good" tells part of the story. There are too many variables and nobody has cracked the code, so the best we can do is consider ALL of the information we have available when evaluating players.

I feel that some of the advanced stat guys are putting FAR too much weight (or ALL of the weight) on their advanced stats. That's what leads to statements like, "Taylor Hall is having a disastrous season!!1". Perhaps this is in response to the trolling done by the traditional mainstream media guys like Spector? Don't know. Don't care.

Here's the thing. You can watch the frigging game to evaluate players. Or you can stare at a spreadsheet to evaluate players. I'm not sure which one is the right way to do it - probably a combination of the 2 - but I know which one is more fun and entertaining; and isn't that what it's all about?

Avatar
#17 Bicepus Maximus - Huge fan boy!
January 29 2014, 04:29PM
Trash it!
10
trashes
Cheers
28
cheers

Wasn't planning on going tonight. I have to work very early tomorrow morning.

Looked on Kijiji to see what the tickets are selling for.... fifteen dollars.... FIFTEEN!!

Guess I have no choice but to go.

Two things:

1. I'm leaving after the second if the Oilers are losing.

2. I'm bring an old Oilers jersey just in case.............................

Avatar
#18 Serious Gord
January 29 2014, 10:17PM
Trash it!
10
trashes
Cheers
9
cheers
XL Lebowski wrote:

59 saves!!!!! Wow! An NHL record. Way to go Scrivens!!

It's a franchise record - doubt its a league one.

How many 59 save shutouts have there EVER been in the nhl?

Avatar
#19 Quinn the Eskimo
January 29 2014, 10:40PM
Trash it!
10
trashes
Cheers
16
cheers
Cynic wrote:

Did Alberta legalize crack as of Jan. 1, 2014?

I can see how you earned your name.

Avatar
#20 Gorbahchano
January 29 2014, 01:24PM
Trash it!
9
trashes
Cheers
8
cheers

Another high 1st round pick being locked? I ain't even mad. However, if we got rid of Lowe and Tencer then maybe we all wouldn't be so mad. Or beer, just give us beer. CHEERS ALL

Avatar
#21 Benny Botts
January 29 2014, 01:50PM
Trash it!
9
trashes
Cheers
6
cheers

Hey Gregor,

I have seen rumblings from bob mckenzie and dreger that contract talks have completely fallen apart with the rangers and callaghan. In my opinion, I think he would be an absolute ideal fit here in Edmonton, not big but a great leader and he plays big.

What are your thoughts on callaghan and if MacT is picking up his phone to talk to sather?

Avatar
#22 Zarny
January 29 2014, 09:42PM
Trash it!
9
trashes
Cheers
12
cheers
Deportivo wrote:

+Eakins -Hemsky +Ference = Where are we now?

McT brought in Eakins (I assume that was because they're of the same mind, and he thinks that Eakins can take us further than Krueger), wanted to trade Hemsky, and also brought it Ference. I know that he got involved in other trades but I want to focus on the past two games where both Hemsky and Ference didn't play. In the first games of the year (on top of the infamous "swarm defence") Eakins played Hall as centre (Nuge was injured, and many people agreed with it because he was going to be the new Messier). Things didn't work as planned, but there were also some extra side effects. One of them is that in order to protect Hall, he played him with Smyth and Hemsky and that resulted in to being dropped to the third line. One can see that Yak is a young guy who excels when given confidence (e.g. Krueger) but struggles otherwise (I know...it's a youth issue!). However, that was the "killing" of Yakupov tho year...and together with the swam defence, the "killing" of the Oilers options to improve in the standings with respect to last year. With respect to Ference, if one understands his signing as coming in for Whitney it can be considered a vast improvement. However, Ference has being named Captain and played two or four top minutes. In a way that made expendable Smid (who was a solid component of the team...full disclosure, I'm one of the few guys who own a Smid Oilers shirt, and I like a lot his approach to the game, although I understand his shortcomings). The trade of Smid had a collateral consequence in sending Petry on a bad roller coaster ride (which in fact has ended only when joined with another european denfenceman, M.M., who is keeping things simply in defence and helping Petry that way). The issue is that Eakins is getting things right now by simply using his common sense, so he's going with the first two lines of last year (with the improvement of Perron for Pjaarvi), uses solid third and fourth lines (congratulations to McT for his work on that), and on defence Petry-Marincin are doing Ok, and so are the Schultzs (at this point J. Schultz likes to be "the guy", and he can do it easier with N. Schulz covering his ass, than with Ference who feels that he needs to be the guy too -he's the captain and has one ring-)....although the Belov-Potter pair has a lot of issues (that's where we need Ference!). I'm not surprised that the team won two games with Hemsky and Ference out. Now, these two players still can contribute a lot to the team, mostly if Hemsky accepts (like Smyth did) his new role in the bottom six, and if Ference makes his main job to cover J. Schulz's ass (and nothing else), or well if the Schultz's are playing together and Ference accepts a minor role playing with Below or Potter (or perhaps Fedun or Klefbom...please).

Wow...delusions like this explain the meltdowns you see here.

In the real world, Eakin's played Hall at C because both Nuge and Gagner started the season on IR.

Hall's TOI for the first 5 games was 23:30, 20:02, 25:44, 25:07 and 23:48. He wasn't dropped to 3rd line; he was being double shifted.

Confidence isn't something that is "given" to a player. Players are always better versions of themselves when confident. Yak's "killing" this year is that he still has way too much junior in his game. He was holding on to the puck way too long, getting boxed out of options and turning the puck over.

The Oilers never had a chance to improve in the standings this year. It doesn't matter who the coach is or what systems you play; you can't get around the fact that for over half the game the D are playing way above their head.

Trading Smid did not send Petry for a bad roller coaster ride. Petry had been playing poorly all year.

Eakins is not getting things right now by using common sense. The line-up is simply healthy and Scrivens doesn't let in beach balls from the blueline. Otherwise nothing has really changed.

Avatar
#23 Dan
January 29 2014, 10:40PM
Trash it!
9
trashes
Cheers
27
cheers

Taylor Hall is now tied for 10th spot in the league for points with Kunitz. And to think he doesn't play with Crosby and is on the second worst team in the league. So another head scratcher to why he's left off the Olympic team. Imagine the points he'd have if he played on a top 10 team. And please tell me about all the giveaways. But the numbers don't lie he's one of the best and shouldn't be overlooked because of the crap he's forced to play with.

Avatar
#24 Spydyr
January 29 2014, 01:53PM
Trash it!
8
trashes
Cheers
39
cheers

Too many people here value stats over grit, heart, a can do attitude, size and a will to win.

Avatar
#25 Sailge
January 29 2014, 08:42PM
Trash it!
8
trashes
Cheers
26
cheers

Yes, 89 is playing so much better lately, he's up to a WHOPPING 6 goals in 42 games.

Give me a break.

Yak, who's been healthy scratched and buried in the bottom 6 a ton, has 10 goals.

Smytty, who's "so done" according to most, has 7 goals playing a lot of bottom 6 mins as well.

89 had one game on the 4th line, otherwise he's been on the top 2 lines constantly.

Perron was getting beat 2-on-1 in the 1st period tonight and Gagner stood beside that for about 5 seconds doing nothing.

If we want to keep being in the basement, he's a perfect 2C.

On a good team? Doesn't do enough for me. Not even close.

Avatar
#26 Stack Pad Save
January 29 2014, 10:32PM
Trash it!
8
trashes
Cheers
8
cheers
Burnward wrote:

Ever hear of Ron Tugnutt?

Tugnutt was the best.

70 save game:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9EHJ99HSVhM

Avatar
#27 Rama Lama
January 29 2014, 01:10PM
Trash it!
7
trashes
Cheers
18
cheers

It's hard to argue with success, but I'm still waiting for the other shoe to drop......call it very cautious optimism.

Hendricks is a godsend right now and I for one do not care how long his contract is for, as long as his legs do not fail him he will be fine. JG if you look at the games ( by the eye) this year as compared to last year and the year before, ........it's rare that we get badly outplayed. This is a good sign but winning that is sustainable will only be had if we can get a top-two defenceman.

I for one believe that this will come through the draft and NOT trade or UFA........sorry to say but thems the reality in the new NHL.

As far as Staples goes and his compulsion to continuously use metrics to state the obvious......he is irrelevant as are his stats!

Avatar
#28 BigCountry
January 29 2014, 01:53PM
Trash it!
7
trashes
Cheers
5
cheers

Gregor, The reason Hall's Corsi is a problem is because the team is scoring 0.6 goals per 60 mins this year less than last year when he is on the ice. And this is despite his increased shooting %.

It's no surprise with that decrease the Oilers are having a worse year. And it's safe to say a large reason for the decrease is his low Corsi (not having possession enough when Hall is on the ice).

Avatar
#29 S4H1
January 29 2014, 01:56PM
Trash it!
7
trashes
Cheers
3
cheers
Benny Botts wrote:

Hey Gregor,

I have seen rumblings from bob mckenzie and dreger that contract talks have completely fallen apart with the rangers and callaghan. In my opinion, I think he would be an absolute ideal fit here in Edmonton, not big but a great leader and he plays big.

What are your thoughts on callaghan and if MacT is picking up his phone to talk to sather?

Callahan would be a good 3th line RW for next year. Probably need to over-pay him though. (3th was intentional)

Avatar
#30 Retsinnab5
January 29 2014, 01:22PM
Trash it!
6
trashes
Cheers
13
cheers

A win tonight would be BIG

Avatar
#31 redhot1
January 29 2014, 01:22PM
Trash it!
6
trashes
Cheers
24
cheers

A win is always good, but lets be honest. Vancouver is a marginal team at best, clearly on the decline. San Jose is probably twice as good.

Avatar
#32 A-Mc
January 29 2014, 01:26PM
Trash it!
6
trashes
Cheers
45
cheers

Couldnt agree more with regards to Hendricks. He was an awesome pickup and I've noticed a difference in the team.

Is he slow? yes. Does he put up a bunch of points? no. but these things dont matter.

Great grab by MacT

Avatar
#33 JB
January 29 2014, 02:06PM
Trash it!
6
trashes
Cheers
4
cheers

If I'm not mistaken corsi and boxcar production aren't really related. In my mind, the idea with corsi is that over time (IE large sample sizes or N) the player is producing better situations to win than to lose. The larger the sample size (i.e. larger number of corsi events) the more randomness can be dislcuded from a sample. Therefore fenwick or corsi should be less influenced by randomness than say goals for and against; scoring chances; and shot on goal. I think this is one reason why a lot of people prefer corsi, well that and that there is also a strong connections between higher corsi leading to more wins (toronto maple leafs notwithstanding)

Now Hall is producing solid boxcars over a fairly decent stretch of hockey thats not to say that it is "unsustainable" as we were saying with shooting percentages as it doesn't really apply here. You can still be getting tons of points, but if more shots are being directed at your net there is still a possibility that the odds are you will be giving up more goals than scoring NO MATTER THE PRODUCTION. I guess +/- is supposed to fill this void, but when isolated that number isn't one I put a ton of credence into. Main point I am making here is that equating offensive production as success doesn't capture the full story of a player's success necessarily. You do need strong offensive production, but more than anything you need to outscore the opponent. this can be done by getting a large # of points, or by limiting your opponents points correct? Corsi (and scoring chance numbers) tries to capture both dimensions, whereas boxcars only capture half the story.

Lastly, I just want to conclude this section by saying I agree that the argument presented as "he can't maintain his production with that Corsi rating" is not the most valid statement ever, but for me it's because I don't really see the two modes of analysis as being related to one another necessarily.

The scoring chance numbers were interesting, but they still show the same trend that corsi would show for hall this year that overall his game is down when compared on metrics that look at both O and D

Just my two cents. I think the scoring chance numbers and corsi both show something I don't like.

Avatar
#34 @Oilanderp
January 29 2014, 04:26PM
Trash it!
6
trashes
Cheers
6
cheers

I was walking down the road yesterday and a lady didn't pick up after her dog.

Advanced stats had nothing to say about it. Obviously, stats are only a tiny part of the story.

Oh! And get this: afterward the dog barked! Stats had nothing to say.

All hail Jeebus! Go Oil!

Avatar
#35 Ari Gold
January 29 2014, 04:47PM
Trash it!
6
trashes
Cheers
6
cheers

Obvious Game Day Prediction:

The Oilers, playing a good NHL team, that's also playing well, get pummeled into mediocrity, again.

Oilers Nation gawks at the 6-1 loss and slowly slides back to complete dejection coupled with hatred and a longing for someone to direct it at.

Objects will include:

Dallas Eakins, Kevins Lowe, Nail Yakupov, MacT, Katz, God

The Oilers will lose another 4 games in a row before they win another 2 lucky games.

This cycle will then repeat itself and the entirety of Oilers Nation will have a sip of Kool-Aid mixed with hope.

I on the other hand will have another sip of cheap scotch. They've got nothing else reasonably priced in Brazil, otherwise it'd be a 'glen'. Lastly, sorry for the pessimism. 8 years of a bad relationship would do that to any husband.

Avatar
#36 Cynic
January 29 2014, 04:49PM
Trash it!
6
trashes
Cheers
4
cheers

Nerdstats are right. Hall blows. Trade him to the Bruins. Thanks in advance.

Can anyone imagine a Boston fan fapping over Lucic's 5x5 Volhammers vs the tough Corgis?

Avatar
#37 G-Unit
January 29 2014, 05:47PM
Trash it!
6
trashes
Cheers
5
cheers
Oil glob wrote:

Imagine another win, especially against SJ !!!

More hope and more confidence.

Maybe our captain should stay out of the line up longer, Hendricks is the real leader anyway

Awesome!!!

I agree that Ference was anointed prematurely and is a mediocre leader(and sub-mediocre player), but calling Hendricks the "real leader" is laughable. I remember why I haven't been on this site for a while.

Hendricks is good and a loud voice that the team needs, but come on dummy.

Avatar
#38 Walter Sobchak
January 29 2014, 09:23PM
Trash it!
6
trashes
Cheers
19
cheers

This isn't just men vs. boys; this is also about a coach being badly out coached with no answer.

The Oilers have never been this dominated in a game this year.

Jeebus, I hope Mactavish can sign Scrivens!!

Avatar
#39 Walter Sobchak
January 29 2014, 09:58PM
Trash it!
6
trashes
Cheers
5
cheers
Zarny wrote:

Being out coached?

Good grief.

More like half the Sharks roster are just better players than the Oilers.

Which hobbit or mythical top pairing D should Eakins put out against Thornton, Marleau etc.

But the Oilers can compete vs other teams like Pitt and Van for example but get crushed vs the Sharks?

The system the Sharks are using are pressing the Oilers down low,the Sharks defense then moves in on the Oilers forwards, the Oilers needed to figure it out, send the forwards out, this stops the Sharks from pinching down low, make a quicker outlet.. stretch there team out so they can't press. 86 shot's have been directed at the Oilers net, you don't see this as a system issue then sorry bout that!

Avatar
#40 Cynic
January 29 2014, 10:37PM
Trash it!
6
trashes
Cheers
33
cheers
Quinn the Eskimo wrote:

TSN calling it the 'best goaltending performance in the expansion era'.

How exactly were we dominated by the sharks? How was Eakins out-coached? That was the best freakin Oiler hockey game I've seen since 2006. Guts, heart, grit and tons of creative skill from guys who give up scores of pounds and feet of height and years of experience. Those lads played their balls off, the coach kept them focused when it looked bad and Scrivens gave them what they needed and if you can't see that then your blind, a hater or a troll. Get a grip.

MacT is making KLowe look good. We are getting harder to beat.

Did Alberta legalize crack as of Jan. 1, 2014?

Avatar
#41 Spydyr
January 30 2014, 06:44AM
Trash it!
6
trashes
Cheers
2
cheers
Dan wrote:

Taylor Hall is now tied for 10th spot in the league for points with Kunitz. And to think he doesn't play with Crosby and is on the second worst team in the league. So another head scratcher to why he's left off the Olympic team. Imagine the points he'd have if he played on a top 10 team. And please tell me about all the giveaways. But the numbers don't lie he's one of the best and shouldn't be overlooked because of the crap he's forced to play with.

Hall the was first line winger on a team that just got outshot 2-1.If that helps you understand why he is not going.

Avatar
#42 Spydyr
January 29 2014, 01:17PM
Trash it!
5
trashes
Cheers
36
cheers

"season-high three-game winning streak "

That is so sad it is funny.

Avatar
#43 Serious Gord
January 29 2014, 02:59PM
Trash it!
5
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers
S4H1 wrote:

@ #17

That is some serious optimism from Gord here. I think someone hacked his account!

More often than not I call it for the oil.

Avatar
#44 Spydyr
January 29 2014, 04:17PM
Trash it!
5
trashes
Cheers
20
cheers

The only stats that really matter to me are:

1)The score when the game is over.

2)The number of wins and losses.

Avatar
#45 A-Mc
January 29 2014, 04:20PM
Trash it!
5
trashes
Cheers
19
cheers
Spydyr wrote:

The only stats that really matter to me are:

1)The score when the game is over.

2)The number of wins and losses.

3) The amount of cleavage shown by ice girls. Measured in Numbered Instances, Cup size, and Inches of cleavage shown.

Avatar
#46 Rod from Viking
January 29 2014, 09:20PM
Trash it!
5
trashes
Cheers
16
cheers

I actually thought Potter had been playing pretty well since he got back in the line up, makes a lot of sense to put a 160lb Larsen in against the biggest forwards in the league. " Good FFN Grief".

Avatar
#47 Brian
January 29 2014, 09:40PM
Trash it!
5
trashes
Cheers
11
cheers
Lawndemon wrote:

I've seen some horrible hockey from the Oilers over the last few years. We all have... But this performance, other than Scrivens, transcends the concept of bad.

Worse than bad... Worse than terribad... Not even ultrabad describes the ineptitude the Oilers are showing tonight.

No... This... This is Eakinsbad.

"Be Eakinsbad for Eckblad"

I beat Josh Oiler to it .

Avatar
#48 Zarny
January 29 2014, 09:48PM
Trash it!
5
trashes
Cheers
33
cheers
Walter Sobchak wrote:

This isn't just men vs. boys; this is also about a coach being badly out coached with no answer.

The Oilers have never been this dominated in a game this year.

Jeebus, I hope Mactavish can sign Scrivens!!

Being out coached?

Good grief.

More like half the Sharks roster are just better players than the Oilers.

Which hobbit or mythical top pairing D should Eakins put out against Thornton, Marleau etc.

Avatar
#49 Lowe Expectations
January 29 2014, 10:24PM
Trash it!
5
trashes
Cheers
27
cheers
bwar wrote:

My favorite part was Doug Maclean saying that Scrivens isn't good enough to be the starter during the first intermission.

Doug Mclean vs Mike Milbury for worst GM in hockey history.

Avatar
#50 Zarny
January 29 2014, 11:02PM
Trash it!
5
trashes
Cheers
9
cheers
oilersd wrote:

Actually it's both. Sharks system puts the puck behind the d and they use their size to bring the puck to the middle and fire away. They just come in waves. For the much smaller oilers it is an impossible situation. They gotta get bigger to compete. Gagne and yak were invisible tonight.

The Sharks are hardly the only team to dump and chase. It's only a problem because the Oilers don't have anyone that can knock guys like Thornton off the puck. He just coasts around blocking guys with his a** looking for Sharks streaking into the slot. Very effective.

Gagner doesn't have the foot speed to compete against guys like Thornton and Marleau. SJ is way too disciplined for Yak.

No arguing they need to get bigger that's for sure.

Comments are closed for this article.