Oilers acquire Mark Fraser from Toronto

Jonathan Willis
January 31 2014 09:06AM

TSN's Darren Dreger reports that the Oilers have added some size to their blue line, adding Mark Fraser from Toronto.

What The Oilers Sent Away

The players going the other way in the deal were both outside of the organization's plans, so the cost on this isn't especially dear.

Teemu Hartikainen is having a pretty good season in Russia and has to be the guy the Leafs were interested in on this deal. He's a big winger with some skill who couldn't do much in 23 NHL games last season with the Oilers; he wasn't interested in staying in the organization on a two-way deal and so he went off to Russia. I've been told down the line that this isn't a player that Edmonton really had plans for, but that doesn't mean he might not break out with the Leafs. 

Cameron Abney, the other guy in the trade, has negative value; he's an ECHL enforcer taking up a spot on Edmonton's 50-man list. In the Oilers' organization he was passed as a player by Erick Lizon (currently with the CHL's Wichita Thunder). 

What the Oilers Added

Everybody hoping Edmonton would add a big, physical defenceman for the third pair got their wish today.

Fraser is listed at 6'4", 220 pounds. He has had three fights in the NHL this season; last year he had nine fights in the majors and eight in the AHL. He's a stay-at-home defenceman who plays a throwback style; the new Theo Peckham on Edmonton's blue line. 

As for what he is as a player? Theo Peckham isn't far-off as a comparison there, either. Fraser has struggled badly this year, with regular partners Paul Ranger and Morgan Rielly both faring better without him than with him. Of interest, though, is the way he and Cody Franson played together last season, and the way his regular partners in New Jersey (primarily Andy Greene and Johnny Oduya) played with and without him. He has had a measure of success in the NHL before, even if he isn't enjoying that this season.

For the time being the pending unrestricted free agent can provide the Oilers with physical play in the six/seven slot and provide the Oilers with a warm body if they choose to move other free agents like Anton Belov or Nick Schultz or Corey Potterat the deadline. He has familiarity with Dallas Eakins from time spent with the Marlies, so he should slot in to the Oilers system with relative ease, and his skillset is a nice fit alongside any of Potter, Philip Larsen or Taylor Fedun on that bottom pair.

This is a small trade, but it adds a dimension the Oilers were lacking at the cost of players the team didn't really care about anyway. The player with the most potential to be an NHL difference-maker went to Toronto, but Hartikainen wasn't going to be that guy in Edmonton and the trade market for 'tweeners who want one-way deals isn't as robust as it could be. 

Update - via @Steve_Dangle of Leafs Nation comes this Hockey Night in Canada segment on Fraser:

Additionally, Jeff Veillette - who covered Fraser in person when Fraser played for the AHL's Toronto Marlies - wrote a piece on the trade for Leafs Nation.

Recently by Jonathan Willis

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Jonathan Willis is a freelance writer. He currently works for Oilers Nation, Sportsnet, the Edmonton Journal and Bleacher Report. He's co-written three books and worked for myriad websites, including Grantland, ESPN, The Score, and Hockey Prospectus. He was previously the founder and managing editor of Copper & Blue.
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#151 Old Retired Guy (A.K.A. Die-Nasty)
January 31 2014, 01:26PM
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DAVE wrote:

It would'nt have been basically nothing, if MacT hadn't let Hartikainan get away and signed him to one way deal instead of Joenseu.

B@stard almost let Omark get away for nothing to!

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#152 Will
January 31 2014, 01:27PM
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It always makes me laugh how crazy people get for these small signings.

I remember people going crazy for giving up a second round pick for Fistric, now they're going crazy for giving up...?

As for this Campbell business, Willis do you think overpaying in free agency - which is really just the nature of free agency and not so much the player or management's fault - is the way to get a top 2 guy, or do you think there's a trade out there to get one of those guys. I have been enjoying the hard target articles for this very subject matter.

Do you think there is any hope in hell that if Callahan hits free agency we could get him, and if so would that make one of our RW expendable to trade for a top 2 guy? Say perhaps a certain Ketih Yandle?

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#153 rickithebear
January 31 2014, 01:29PM
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JW: Fraser is a box protection Dman. The league average success rate of shots: 0-10 ft 17-18% are goals 10-20 ft 23-24% are goals 20-30 ft 8-9% >30 ft 3-4% Box dmen protect 20 ft in. 20-30 ft is a shared responsibility D and Fwds > 30 ft is about forwrds.

Strong defenceses like BOS, LA have great box protection D who limit the shots inside 20 ft to 30% or less. They have physical and lane dominate Dmen who reduce the success rate of the shots inside 20ft.(the box)

An elite Dman like Chara allows 14% or less success rate for shots inside 20 ft plus there are less than 30% shots from inside 20 ft.

Mark Fraser faces 3rd comp and shows signs of an elite box protection Dman. he gives up less than 14% success rate for shots inside 20 ft. he has an inside 20ft shot rate of 28%.

As a result in his time in NJ and 1st year in TOR he was a top 30 EVGA Dman. Yes against 3rd comp. but that gives flexibilty to the top pairs to be less elite on EVGA.

He was top 30 both years he played PK on D.

Mark Fistric and potter were the best EVGA D pair in the game.1.57EVGA/60 we tried to sign fistric to a 3 yr 1.25M contract. Anahiem got him he is a 1.9 GA/60 Dman. they extended him to a 3 year contract.

Fistric left and our 3rd pair is 3.17 Ga/60 .74g/gm versus .44g /gm last year.

.30 increase in team GA.

fraser 2 years nj and first in TOR 1.67EVGA/60; 1.65EVGA/60; 2.33 EVGA/60

we sure could use that.

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#154 Taylor Gang
January 31 2014, 01:30PM
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OilClog wrote:

What is wrong with you.. Dense much

It's not anything to do with abilities with being able to absorb Campbell's contract. It's that the Oilers are paying more for the two currently then what Campbell's contract is worth. Understand. If we move the two, bring in the one. We actually will be paying less.

If Campbell is available he's definately worth looking into, there are a few other players I try to shake loose first though.. Subban, Weber, that guy Montreal traded for Gomez, Big Buff..if they can't be had, I'd grab Campbell.

I'm just saying just because it's cheaper doesn't mean it's worth it, how am I dense?

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#155 Old Retired Guy (A.K.A. Die-Nasty)
January 31 2014, 01:32PM
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MaxPower417 wrote:

From a Leafs fan: I'm sorry Edmonton. You don't deserve this.

Thank you for your concern Leafs Fan.....I know you'll enjoy Hartlessikainen. He's just what the Leafs need.

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#156 Bucknuck
January 31 2014, 01:36PM
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I agree with the notion that the Oilers need to add a top pairing Defenseman. Until they do, they will be on the outside looking in.

That said, i do like the direction MacT has been heading with his personnel moves. Perron, Hendricks, Gazdic, Fraser, Ference, and Gordon are all hard to play against.

The experiments are all on one year deals: Grebby, Belov, Scrivens and Bryzgalov. If any of them work out it's a bonus, if not they are gone.

I've been impressed.

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#157 A-Mc
January 31 2014, 01:37PM
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@Will

i think it was a 3rd we gave up for Fistric! just FYI =)

PS: you have a real chubby for Callahan.. Haven't you asked about him in almost every thread you've replied to over the last week or so? LOL

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#158 Dan 1919
January 31 2014, 01:37PM
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All this Campbell talk, what would it take to even get him?

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#159 oilersd
January 31 2014, 01:37PM
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@gcw_rocks

"I doubt we see Fedun on Edmonton..."

Who cares?

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#160 ubermiguel
January 31 2014, 01:40PM
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Grebs had a connection with MacT, but MacT's not drawing up the Xs and Os any more. If Eakins says this guy is an improvement on our current 6/7 guys that's enough for me.

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#161 Johnnydapunk
January 31 2014, 01:40PM
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michael wrote:

Hemsky's 5 million looks great next season off the books. Add Eager,N.Shultz(3.75),Smyth at 2.25(I think he is resigned at 1.5).Grebby,Belov,Potter,Larsen(1.1)and whole whack of other guys.We'll save on the goaltending.DD was 3.75. think you can sign Scrivens and one other goalie for a lot less than that.I see Gagner being shown his hat at the draft.There goes 4+million.

My point is that cap space even with having to sign RFA's will be plentiful.Hemsky's return if its a 3rd is fine by me.Its better than nothing.

Eakins quote "Fraser adds a growl back there"

I'm 50/50 on some of your points, but 2 goalies for under 3.75mill ? I think the Oil currently have the lowest payroll for goalies as of now, Scrivens is even having part of his contract paid by the Leafs, but for a proper number one and backup, you are looking at minimum 6 mill, realistically I would think 7 mill.

As for the RFA hunt, it depends on what year the compensation draft picks are for, as the Oil don't have any picks in the 2nd, 3rd, or 4th round for 2014 and compensation for signing an RFA is usually one of those, so depending on the year those compensatory picks are for, would determine if the Oil can make any RFA offers.

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#162 Lochenzo
January 31 2014, 01:41PM
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Serious Gord wrote:

Whether buying out hemsky would have helped is unknowable. Having lots of room early in the season could have gotten the oil a good piece from the flyers early in the season when they were really struggling, but who knows? It's impossible to prove either way. It's whether the strategy is sound that is the question. I think it is.

And then what, sign David Clarkson to an $8 million dollar contract for 7 years, and then wish we still had a compliance buyout to get rid of him this summer.

Val Filppula you could make the argument for signing. But Val had a limited resume in terms of being a high level player, so the signing wasn't without risk.

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#163 NJ
January 31 2014, 01:45PM
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2 things: kudos to JW who is still replying 3 pages into posts.

Re: Fedun. Lots of us would love to see the feel good story of last couple years play more in Oil blue and maybe him and Fraser make a great 5-6 pair some day. If not, we'll still watch him play on another NHL team. That is a fact.

Why? Because he's been something to cheer for when we've had nothing else to cheer for. (Until the sharks got Scivened that is)

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#164 Serious Gord
January 31 2014, 01:46PM
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A-Mc wrote:

If it is unknown how it would have affected the team by buying out Hemsky, then by that same logic you can't possibly conclude that it was a bad move to NOT buy him out; so please drop it.

You've said your piece. We've all read it in many of your posts prior to the ones in this article. There is no reason to continually repeat yourself.

Flawed logic on your part. The strategic aspect of buying out hemsky should not be measured by the tangible tactical result.

Not having ample cap room during the season is a big - strategic - mistake.

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#165 Serious Gord
January 31 2014, 01:50PM
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Lochenzo wrote:

And then what, sign David Clarkson to an $8 million dollar contract for 7 years, and then wish we still had a compliance buyout to get rid of him this summer.

Val Filppula you could make the argument for signing. But Val had a limited resume in terms of being a high level player, so the signing wasn't without risk.

I have never said anything about clarkson.

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#166 Old Retired Guy (A.K.A. Die-Nasty)
January 31 2014, 01:51PM
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Taylor Gang wrote:

But he's expensive! Horrendously expensive. With the amount of holes the Oilers have in their lineup, I wouldn't feel comfortable if Mac-T invested that much money into an aging defenseman such as Campbell.

I'd take Campbell on an expensive two year deal.....problem is he's going to be looking for a 4 to 6 year deal and that is where he may not be a good fit.

Campbell is not the big tough 1-2 Dman that most of us are dreaming about, but if it's a two or three year deal then we cannot let our pursuit of perfection get in the way of a seriously good upgrade.

Edit: Joe Mamma

Right you are. Thank you. He is under contract for two more years after this year at $7.15 million per season.

So then the questions for me are, does he have a no trade or limited no trade contract, and what would we have to give up to get him?

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#167 Joe Mamma
January 31 2014, 01:55PM
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Old Retired Guy (A.K.A. Die-Nasty) wrote:

I'd take Campbell on an expensive two year deal.....problem is he's going to be looking for a 4 to 6 year deal and that is where he may not be a good fit.

Campbell is not the big tough 1-2 Dman that most of us are dreaming about, but if it's a two or three year deal then we cannot let our pursuit of perfection get in the way of a seriously good upgrade.

Edit: Joe Mamma

Right you are. Thank you. He is under contract for two more years after this year at $7.15 million per season.

So then the questions for me are, does he have a no trade or limited no trade contract, and what would we have to give up to get him?

Pretty sure he still has two years left on his current deal.

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#168 Will
January 31 2014, 01:58PM
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A-Mc wrote:

i think it was a 3rd we gave up for Fistric! just FYI =)

PS: you have a real chubby for Callahan.. Haven't you asked about him in almost every thread you've replied to over the last week or so? LOL

Awe, that's nice. Someone is reading my posts.

Yeah I kind of latch onto an idea and then yell loudly about it until it either gains traction or becomes moot.

I've been shouting about Yandle for a couple years now.

Last season I was yelling to take Nichuskin, trade Gags for help on D, then sign Antripov and have a Canadian and Russian line as our top two.

This is why I'm not a GM I guess.

I think my overall point is that Mac T is doing a good job of building the 2006 cup run style Oilers around the top end talent we have which has been a big complaint levelled against the club in past years (i.e. no grit, no heart, something the 2006 version had in spades). What's needed though besides a good amount of ancillary moves is something risky.

They are going to need to balance out the top 6 somehow. Perron was a good start in that he's an awesome agitator with some incredible skill and drive to win, and he's pretty good two way. But the team will still need, IMO replace one of Gagner, Yak, or Ebs, with a more physical and two way thinking player. Hopefully one with some size and veteran leadership. Again IMO no other player available fits that better than Callahan.

With that, they have trade options for that elusive number two d man. I like the suggestion by Willis to just pay for someone like Campbell, but I also hope they do better.

For this particular trade, I look at Fraser's number's last year and think man I hope the concussion he took hasn't irrevocably changed his game. But if it has, well, they can just not resign him next year and the team really didn't lose anything.

What do you think is a reasonable route to fixing the team? Are they still far away or maybe one or two big moves?

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#169 DisappointedFan
January 31 2014, 01:59PM
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Joe Mamma wrote:

Where did the Oilers finish in the standings with Fistric in the lineup? What were Fistric's stats last year (Points, +/-, Corsi, Fenwick, etc.)? He was an inneffective 6-7 defensemen or worse, and other than a couple of memorable hits, did little or nothing to improve this team. In fact his penchant for selfish play hurt them more than helped most nights. I'm not arguing the Oilers don't need toughness and grit on the back end, this is why I'm very happy with this trade. I am arguing that Fistric at 2mil per is frikken lunacy, and the right move was made. Anyone arguing otherwise has a man crush, should put down the crack pipe when it gets hot, or has the last name Fistric.

Sorry, but when someone references Corsi or Fenwick, you lose credibility in your argument entirely. Those are poor representatives of a players performance, and hardly tell how a guy is playing especially defensemen (who on Edmonton never look good in Corsi). But since we're on the topic, he had a +6 rating in Edmonton and +8 rating in Anaheim. Since we're looking at "helping the team" he had 6 assists and was +6 for the Oilers while Nick Schultz was -13 and had 1g 8a. So if you want to go by your "effectiveness" rating scale, Mark Fistric looks a lot better than Nick Schultz does.

Sorry but your feelings towards his "selfish play" can be said about most players, let's look at all the times Justin Schultz pinches or moves up to the slot for a shot putting himself far out of position blows it and the other team goes down and scores or gets a break away, he does it every game. Or Jeff Petrys soft play on the puck EVERY game where he gives it away in our own zone, or because he doesn't stand in position or cover guys in front of his net. Or we could talk about Potter deflecting every shot into our own net. Or we could talk about how a rookie prospect is the best looking defender on the team who wasn't even supposed to play on the Oilers this year.

Reducing your argument to petty attempts at telling me to "put down the crack pipe" or "man crush" prove just how little strengthen your argument is.

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#170 shaddup
January 31 2014, 02:01PM
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A-Mc wrote:

If it is unknown how it would have affected the team by buying out Hemsky, then by that same logic you can't possibly conclude that it was a bad move to NOT buy him out; so please drop it.

You've said your piece. We've all read it in many of your posts prior to the ones in this article. There is no reason to continually repeat yourself.

Speak for yourself, I like reading Serious Gord's comments. I may not agree with him, but I like that he has an opinion and can express why he has those opinions.

If you don't care to read his comments, kindly skip over it and allow those of us who do to read it and comment accordingly.

Who the hell are you to speak for the rest of us?

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#171 Grizztopia
January 31 2014, 02:03PM
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Old Retired Guy (A.K.A. Die-Nasty) wrote:

I'd take Campbell on an expensive two year deal.....problem is he's going to be looking for a 4 to 6 year deal and that is where he may not be a good fit.

Campbell is not the big tough 1-2 Dman that most of us are dreaming about, but if it's a two or three year deal then we cannot let our pursuit of perfection get in the way of a seriously good upgrade.

Edit: Joe Mamma

Right you are. Thank you. He is under contract for two more years after this year at $7.15 million per season.

So then the questions for me are, does he have a no trade or limited no trade contract, and what would we have to give up to get him?

The good news is that if you trade for Campbell now, you have him on the aforementioned expensive two year deal (signed through the next two seasons already), and can likely move him as a rental at the end if need be.

Though my hope would be the Oilers will be done offloading players as rentals to other teams in two years time.

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#172 gcw_rocks
January 31 2014, 02:05PM
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Bucknuck wrote:

I agree with the notion that the Oilers need to add a top pairing Defenseman. Until they do, they will be on the outside looking in.

That said, i do like the direction MacT has been heading with his personnel moves. Perron, Hendricks, Gazdic, Fraser, Ference, and Gordon are all hard to play against.

The experiments are all on one year deals: Grebby, Belov, Scrivens and Bryzgalov. If any of them work out it's a bonus, if not they are gone.

I've been impressed.

Hendricks, Gazdic, and Fraser are all hard to play against?

Three of those guys are replacement level players, two of which can barely play hockey and one who can't. The are hard to play against how? The dirty looks they give all the players who skate around them?

Ference is fast approaching the time where d-men of his type fall off a cliff, but he is under contract for 3 more years with a NMC.

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#173 pkam
January 31 2014, 02:07PM
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Serious Gord wrote:

Flawed logic on your part. The strategic aspect of buying out hemsky should not be measured by the tangible tactical result.

Not having ample cap room during the season is a big - strategic - mistake.

MacT has made 2 salary dump trades. One is Horcoff to the Stars. One is Perron from the Blues. If MacT could acquire Perron without buying out Hemsky, why must we?

We are about middle in salary when the season started. Can you tell me how many teams below us in salary stole a player from a team who needed to dump salary?

Can you tell me how many team above us in salary got frozen in a trade due to the cap problem?

You keep saying we can have the cap space to get some players from the Flyers if we have bought out Hemsky. There are at least 15 teams below us in salary. Which team got a player from Flyers?

Perhaps you can tell us what other salary dump trades made by any other teams, not just the Flyers, that we could have made, cause I am not aware of any. Since you are so sure that not buying out Hemsky is a big mistake, why not support your argument with some facts, instead of BS.

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#174 Zarny
January 31 2014, 02:07PM
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DisappointedFan wrote:

So now he's playing on the Ducks, is 2nd on their team in hits and has played 28 games..you're telling me that wouldn't be something you'd pay for. He has 128 hits at 2nd on his team 40 hits above the next best player, and he'd be 1 hit behind Jeff Petry (team leader)...you'd be stupid not to pay somehow who goes and crushes people all day. We have more than enough non-offensive, non-defensive defensemen, they could have used one who could at least lay the body.

Mark Fraser has 66 hits in 19 games, hardly comparable. They overpaid Gagner, Horcoff, Hemsky, and on and on...overpaying a player who actually does his job is a huge plus. You get Matt Hendricks who is being paid because he's an energy player on the Oilers. I like it. He does his job and it's working for them.

Going from 29th to 24th = progression. Going from 24th to 29th = regression.

Moving up (progression) is a positive thing, so they are in the basement, they're atleast walking to the door. Moving down (regression) is a negative and shows that they like hiding in the dark and getting kicked around by their abusive older brothers (the rest of the league).

Yes I'd pay for that...about $900K-$1M and not a penny more.

Paying double that which is what Fistric wanted would be stupid. I wouldn't even consider that for a nanosecond.

Simply looking at 24th vs 29th as "progression" or "regression" is ridiculous.

Both equate to the same thing...bottom of the league. The Oilers were 24th after 48 games and plummeting. They finished 6 pts ahead of 29th.

Moving down doesn't show they like "hiding in the dark". That's possibly the dumbest thing I've ever read. Are you really stupid enough to think that was the plan or what the team wanted?

They started the year with their top 2 C on the IR and their starting G played like absolutely garbage. Had Gagner not been hurt and had they gotten decent goaltending the Oilers would have 5-7 more wins. That would put them in 24th or 25th which is where there were last year and is what they are this year.

Context is a beautiful thing.

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#175 A-Mc
January 31 2014, 02:09PM
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@Will

If Yandle was ever an option for the Oilers, i'd love to have him. He's good enough for my hockey drafts so he's good enough for the Oilers!

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#176 Shredder
January 31 2014, 02:10PM
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gcw_rocks wrote:

Hendricks, Gazdic, and Fraser are all hard to play against?

Three of those guys are replacement level players, two of which can barely play hockey and one who can't. The are hard to play against how? The dirty looks they give all the players who skate around them?

Ference is fast approaching the time where d-men of his type fall off a cliff, but he is under contract for 3 more years with a NMC.

I find your lack of faith disturbing...pray I don't alter the deal further.

Seriously though, you don't like his moves? I have 2 words for you: BEN SCRIVENS!

Go ahead, say "it was only one game" - name a goalie who's done that for the Oilers in the last few years?

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#177 Dog Train
January 31 2014, 02:12PM
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Considering that we added an NHL player for a soon -to-be beer league player and a self-entitled player who was never going to play us, I would say this is a solid trade. Mactavish certainly isn't sitting on his hands doing nothing. My guess is that the deals he makes before the deadline will mostly be selling off veterans to recoup some draft picks. We need to add to the group of players that make the most difference (top 6 forwards, top 4 D) but my guess is that those kind of moves won't come until the off-season.

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#178 Zarny
January 31 2014, 02:14PM
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Serious Gord wrote:

Flawed logic on your part. The strategic aspect of buying out hemsky should not be measured by the tangible tactical result.

Not having ample cap room during the season is a big - strategic - mistake.

Give it up.

Not buying out Hemsky didn't impede MacT from making any trades.

The Oilers had the cap room to make a trade with a team like Phi at the beginning of the season if Phi was actually going to pull the trigger.

They had ample cap space to go sign Bryzgalov.

There was no strategic aspect to buying out Hemsky.

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#179 Old Retired Guy (A.K.A. Die-Nasty)
January 31 2014, 02:14PM
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Joe Mamma wrote:

Pretty sure he still has two years left on his current deal.

Right you are. Thank you. He is under contract for two more years after this year at $7.15 million per season. And he has a limited No Trade clause in his contract. According to Cap Geek he can provide the Panthers with a list of 8 teams that he WIIL accept a trade to.

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#180 A-Mc
January 31 2014, 02:16PM
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shaddup wrote:

Speak for yourself, I like reading Serious Gord's comments. I may not agree with him, but I like that he has an opinion and can express why he has those opinions.

If you don't care to read his comments, kindly skip over it and allow those of us who do to read it and comment accordingly.

Who the hell are you to speak for the rest of us?

Who said anything about speaking for the rest of you? You're welcome to say what you want.

I'm tired of reading the exact same message that is posted every single thread. It's the same negative BS and it's not gaining any traction with continual repeats.

I'd have PM'd him if it were possible but it's not.

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#181 Zarny
January 31 2014, 02:18PM
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DisappointedFan wrote:

Sorry, but when someone references Corsi or Fenwick, you lose credibility in your argument entirely. Those are poor representatives of a players performance, and hardly tell how a guy is playing especially defensemen (who on Edmonton never look good in Corsi). But since we're on the topic, he had a +6 rating in Edmonton and +8 rating in Anaheim. Since we're looking at "helping the team" he had 6 assists and was +6 for the Oilers while Nick Schultz was -13 and had 1g 8a. So if you want to go by your "effectiveness" rating scale, Mark Fistric looks a lot better than Nick Schultz does.

Sorry but your feelings towards his "selfish play" can be said about most players, let's look at all the times Justin Schultz pinches or moves up to the slot for a shot putting himself far out of position blows it and the other team goes down and scores or gets a break away, he does it every game. Or Jeff Petrys soft play on the puck EVERY game where he gives it away in our own zone, or because he doesn't stand in position or cover guys in front of his net. Or we could talk about Potter deflecting every shot into our own net. Or we could talk about how a rookie prospect is the best looking defender on the team who wasn't even supposed to play on the Oilers this year.

Reducing your argument to petty attempts at telling me to "put down the crack pipe" or "man crush" prove just how little strengthen your argument is.

No, actually someone doesn't lose credibility in their argument entirely by referencing Corsi or Fenwick.

Some of the top minds in hockey use analytics. The fact they confuse you doesn't make them irrelevant.

Reducing your argument to "anyone who mentions something is irrelevant" actually make you completely irrelevant.

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#182 Zarny
January 31 2014, 02:22PM
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Old Retired Guy (A.K.A. Die-Nasty) wrote:

I'd take Campbell on an expensive two year deal.....problem is he's going to be looking for a 4 to 6 year deal and that is where he may not be a good fit.

Campbell is not the big tough 1-2 Dman that most of us are dreaming about, but if it's a two or three year deal then we cannot let our pursuit of perfection get in the way of a seriously good upgrade.

Edit: Joe Mamma

Right you are. Thank you. He is under contract for two more years after this year at $7.15 million per season.

So then the questions for me are, does he have a no trade or limited no trade contract, and what would we have to give up to get him?

Keep in mind the 2nd year of that expensive deal coincides with the 1st year of Yak's next contract.

As well, MacT is not going to get all of the pieces required by next season. He's going to be looking for more pieces in 2015-2016.

I agree you can't have blinders on looking for perfection but Campbell's cap hit could be a serious hindrance to adding other required players give he's not the ideal D the Oilers need.

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#183 DisappointedFan
January 31 2014, 02:24PM
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@Zarny

Your opinion and that's fine.

They were also 10 points back from a playoff spot, it was a close year last year. They had a rough patch at the end where they played highly competitive playoff teams and lost out, they were still looking like a team that could be promising this year, hence why everyone thought for a possible playoff push.

Am I stupid enough to think what was the plan? Losing? Well they certainly didn't think they'd be competitive with a no-experience defensive team, or a small top six, if that's what you're going for. (Poor way to debate someone I may add, calling them stupid. Proves little more than you have no argument besides cheap shot attempts)

You really think Gagner has been the decision maker in any game this year? He was the decision maker in his 8 point night, he hasn't done anything special any year he's played here. Don't kid yourself. Having Nuge down was a huge blow, which set the team back a few games, but the other 50 games where they have lost the majority of everything doesn't really say a lot to your side of this point.

They may have come out better had they had their top 2C to start and it could have carried them slightly stronger than without. But as it stands they didn't have them, came out flat, and have stayed there because they lost confidence in their goalie then defense and now coaching staff. Hence, a regression in their rebuild.

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#184 DisappointedFan
January 31 2014, 02:28PM
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@Zarny

They also state that those are loose numbers they use for reference but hardly tell the story. Are you the same person preaching Hall is on the down slide? Just laughable. Corsi and Fenwick on defense are terrible measures of performance and fairly bad estimates on forwards. Plain and simple.

Another cheap shot attempt at saying I'm dumb, good to know you can find the facts and numbers to back up your claims at "hockey analytics".

I believe your entire comment is a "beautifully" written example of irony to the nth degree. Congratulations.

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#185 Joy S. Lee
January 31 2014, 02:31PM
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rickithebear wrote:

JW: Fraser is a box protection Dman. The league average success rate of shots: 0-10 ft 17-18% are goals 10-20 ft 23-24% are goals 20-30 ft 8-9% >30 ft 3-4% Box dmen protect 20 ft in. 20-30 ft is a shared responsibility D and Fwds > 30 ft is about forwrds.

Strong defenceses like BOS, LA have great box protection D who limit the shots inside 20 ft to 30% or less. They have physical and lane dominate Dmen who reduce the success rate of the shots inside 20ft.(the box)

An elite Dman like Chara allows 14% or less success rate for shots inside 20 ft plus there are less than 30% shots from inside 20 ft.

Mark Fraser faces 3rd comp and shows signs of an elite box protection Dman. he gives up less than 14% success rate for shots inside 20 ft. he has an inside 20ft shot rate of 28%.

As a result in his time in NJ and 1st year in TOR he was a top 30 EVGA Dman. Yes against 3rd comp. but that gives flexibilty to the top pairs to be less elite on EVGA.

He was top 30 both years he played PK on D.

Mark Fistric and potter were the best EVGA D pair in the game.1.57EVGA/60 we tried to sign fistric to a 3 yr 1.25M contract. Anahiem got him he is a 1.9 GA/60 Dman. they extended him to a 3 year contract.

Fistric left and our 3rd pair is 3.17 Ga/60 .74g/gm versus .44g /gm last year.

.30 increase in team GA.

fraser 2 years nj and first in TOR 1.67EVGA/60; 1.65EVGA/60; 2.33 EVGA/60

we sure could use that.

That's really interesting, and something I never would have known if not for your posting.

I really appreciate new insights into the game, and this is one of them, thanks. Sure a different tune than some who call him a minor-league plug.

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#186 pkam
January 31 2014, 02:34PM
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Zarny wrote:

Keep in mind the 2nd year of that expensive deal coincides with the 1st year of Yak's next contract.

As well, MacT is not going to get all of the pieces required by next season. He's going to be looking for more pieces in 2015-2016.

I agree you can't have blinders on looking for perfection but Campbell's cap hit could be a serious hindrance to adding other required players give he's not the ideal D the Oilers need.

If the price to get him is cheap, I am not too worry about his 7.1M contract.

If Pens can afford 7.25 for Letang and Leafs can afford 7M on Phaneuf, why can't we afford 7.1M for Campbell? Worst case scenario, sign Yak to a one year bridge contract.

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#187 Old Retired Guy (A.K.A. Die-Nasty)
January 31 2014, 02:39PM
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@Joy S. Lee

Ricki the Bear does some amazing work digging up this kind of analytical material. I usually have to read it twice and even then I have no way of assessing how meaningful it is....but at face value Rickis stuff is fascinating....he always brings a different perspective.

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#188 Old Retired Guy (A.K.A. Die-Nasty)
January 31 2014, 02:45PM
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Zarny wrote:

Keep in mind the 2nd year of that expensive deal coincides with the 1st year of Yak's next contract.

As well, MacT is not going to get all of the pieces required by next season. He's going to be looking for more pieces in 2015-2016.

I agree you can't have blinders on looking for perfection but Campbell's cap hit could be a serious hindrance to adding other required players give he's not the ideal D the Oilers need.

You're right that managing a roster in the cap era is more like completing a Rubix Cube than it is a two dimensional board game. At the two dimensional level, I was thinking that all the expiring contracts we have which is about ten I think, and the increase in the Cap for next year would accommodate a couple of $7 mil contracts and Yak, but I could be wrong...really I haven't done the math.

Edit: just had a quick look...we actually have 16 contracts expiring at the of this season.

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#189 DisappointedFan
January 31 2014, 02:51PM
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Joe Mamma wrote:

Aww, you mad bro? Guess what buddy, I could care less what you think. If you think a guy with 0G 6A that spends half the season in the pressbox is worth 2mil a year, well let's all be thankful you're not running the team.

Nick Shultz was signed. Fistric was a UFA. What the hell does any of the drivel you just posted have to do with Fistric? You're arguments are a disjointed pile of circle reasoning, constantly degrading into blather on tripe that has little or nothing to do with the subject matter. Judging by the hearty helping of trashes and lack of props on your mundane arguments, I'm guessing I'm not in the minority.

Well I guess there's a reason neither of us is getting paid to manage the team.

It's a circular argument by the way, a circle argument is one about...well a circle.

So people don't agree with my statements, I didn't know this was about who can get the most popular replies? Is there some sort of prize for getting the most props?

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#190 DisappointedFan
January 31 2014, 02:53PM
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@Joe Mamma

Just didn't want you going out there into the world thinking it was a circle argument or a "Pre-Madonna" (as opposed to the "Prima donna" which is correct) and looking uneducated to your friends.

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#191 toprightcorner
January 31 2014, 02:55PM
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Joe Mamma wrote:

Where did the Oilers finish in the standings with Fistric in the lineup? What were Fistric's stats last year (Points, +/-, Corsi, Fenwick, etc.)? He was an inneffective 6-7 defensemen or worse, and other than a couple of memorable hits, did little or nothing to improve this team. In fact his penchant for selfish play hurt them more than helped most nights. I'm not arguing the Oilers don't need toughness and grit on the back end, this is why I'm very happy with this trade. I am arguing that Fistric at 2mil per is frikken lunacy, and the right move was made. Anyone arguing otherwise has a man crush, should put down the crack pipe when it gets hot, or has the last name Fistric.

It's mighty open-minded of you to believe that everyone who disagrees with you is on crack! Insecure much?

So you want to know where the Oilers finished in the standings with Fistric in the line-up.......um....same place the did with Hall, Ebs and Nuge in the lineup. great point! So where in the standings is Anaheim with Fistric in the line up?

How about you look at the actual stats before you berate a players ability with them here are Fistrics stats for last year you used.

+/- - second on the team at +6

Corsi - best of the defensemen

hits - highest hits per game on team

Those stats that you brought up completely contradict your point, good job.

Fistric may not have had any offensive upside but it would be safe to assume that the grit, size and physical play he brought as a 6/7 guy would have helped considerably over softies like Grebs and Potter.

I didn't understand why MacT didn't resign Fistric but if he wanted $2 mill I get it. Too bad he didn't replace that role on the team earlier but now he sees the hole and is trying to fix it 4 months later. If Fraser can be a Fistric type player, he will help the team a lot who sorely miss that type of player on the back end.

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#192 northof51
January 31 2014, 03:02PM
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Whoa... I was reading through the comments and had to make sure I wasn't over at TSN. I'm going to get torched for saying this, but at the moment I'm embarrassed to be a card-carrying member of Oilers Nation.

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#193 Old Retired Guy (A.K.A. Die-Nasty)
January 31 2014, 03:04PM
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Zarny wrote:

Keep in mind the 2nd year of that expensive deal coincides with the 1st year of Yak's next contract.

As well, MacT is not going to get all of the pieces required by next season. He's going to be looking for more pieces in 2015-2016.

I agree you can't have blinders on looking for perfection but Campbell's cap hit could be a serious hindrance to adding other required players give he's not the ideal D the Oilers need.

Doing a quick add, it looks like you are correct Zarny. The numbers are tight.

In the last year of Campbell's contract, assuming we sign Yak to something like a two year bridge deal at $5 million a year, with our current roster minus Hemmer we will be spending approx $42 million on the forwards, $16 million on Defense, and $3 million on Goaltending. Total approx $61 million against a projected $70 mill cap.

Of course, this does not include paying for a #1 Goalie or a 1-2 Dman like Campbell

So is we add in $7 mil for Campbell and an additional $5 mil for Goaltending then subtract Gags $5 mil.....it all looks doable...we'd be in around $68 mil

But like I said, mine is a very simplistic 2 dimensional view of things.

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#194 The Real Scuba Steve
January 31 2014, 03:08PM
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Bucknuck wrote:

I agree with the notion that the Oilers need to add a top pairing Defenseman. Until they do, they will be on the outside looking in.

That said, i do like the direction MacT has been heading with his personnel moves. Perron, Hendricks, Gazdic, Fraser, Ference, and Gordon are all hard to play against.

The experiments are all on one year deals: Grebby, Belov, Scrivens and Bryzgalov. If any of them work out it's a bonus, if not they are gone.

I've been impressed.

Agreed but MacT has to make the jump for seasoned stud defensemen, I know It is an impossible acquisition for the Oilers but that is what makes a G.M. Lowe did it in 2006, MacT has to pull lighting out of his ass, or else we going to way of the Islanders and Thrashers and our owner doesn't look like he cares.

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#195 Old Retired Guy (A.K.A. Die-Nasty)
January 31 2014, 03:09PM
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northof51 wrote:

Whoa... I was reading through the comments and had to make sure I wasn't over at TSN. I'm going to get torched for saying this, but at the moment I'm embarrassed to be a card-carrying member of Oilers Nation.

Easy fix....pull up your panties and turn in your card.

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#196 michael
January 31 2014, 03:11PM
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Dale Tallon did not get stupid overnight. Campbell is his biggest asset. He paid to get him when he arrived in Florida. Now that the new owner has expressed his wishes to become a cap team going forward why in hells name would Talon trade him?

Campbell gives Florida a legit number 1. You pair him up with Gudbranson and they'll be solid for a few years to come.

I take a wait and see approach. We'll see a number of departures this off season. I think we'll see one or two FA signings. But of the minor league variety. We'll see more players graduating via OKC. We'll also see the likes of Mitch Moroz and Dillon Simpson being added along with some others to the OKC roster.

Adding players like Fraser and IB costs little. Scrivens cost a 3rd pick. We know the odds of those making it to the NHL.

MacT is expending little in terms of viable assets to acquire players who have UFA status. If they work out.Great. If not.Flush. Its a win win situation for the Oilers as they look for the right mix of skill and grit.

I like what he is doing. Little risk.

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#197 northof51
January 31 2014, 03:13PM
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Old Retired Guy (A.K.A. Die-Nasty) wrote:

Easy fix....pull up your panties and turn in your card.

I thought you were better than that. Guess I was wrong.

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#198 DisappointedFan
January 31 2014, 03:13PM
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@Joe Mamma

Using the jokes just made on you against the guy who made the joke, such wow.

Please tell me more about how you actually read the comments in our discussion and actually made a "contribution" to it without hoping on the crack pipe joke train.

At least you sort of established one clear agreement that he's better than two bad signings made.

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#199 Wonger
January 31 2014, 03:14PM
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Oiler fans are going to love FRASER.....Fraser, Hendricks..... Thank You MACT....thank you...thank you.....thank you!!!!!!!EXACTLY WHAT THIS TEAM NEEDS!!!!!Thank You!!!!! Keep going....Simmonds????, etc...

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#200 Old Retired Guy (A.K.A. Die-Nasty)
January 31 2014, 03:15PM
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me wrote:

Boy...you losers can sure drag out posts on an insignificant trade. you do crack me up though how you all think you're experts that matter to a team you will never be anything but a sucker for...get a life.

Is this what you repeat to yourself when your staring in the mirror in the morning? How's that workin for ya?

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