WHAT WOULD GAGNER FETCH THESE DAYS?

Lowetide
January 07 2014 07:10PM

TSN reported tonight that the "ask" for Sam Gagner is a top 6 forward, a top 4D or a starting goaltender. What would that look like? 

TRADE FOR ANOTHER GAGNER? TOP 6F

Gagner's contract (just signed this summer) is a $4.8 million dollar cap hit times three seasons (including this one), so there's clearly a need to have him inside the top 6F. The players in Gagner's cap hit range offer an interesting idea about what that kind of money buys you in today's NHL; I think Bryan Little is (45, 14-20-34) a good comparable for Gagner, about the same dollars and their point totals per 82 games march in lock step:

  • Little per 82gp: 21-27-48
  • Gagner per 82gp: 18-32-50

That seems about right, I think Little's current season would give him more value, but Gagner's coming on and has a solid offensive resume despite warts at center.

FANCY STATS COMPARABLES

12-13

13-14

The two season comparison from extra skater offers us a unique look at the two players (man, does shooting percentage make a difference) and shows the Corsi for % goes to the Jet.

TOP 4D

 

The Penguins have a ton of young defensemen and prospects, so maybe Gagner to the Pens could work (hat tip to Jonathan Willis for the Lavoie tweet). Could Gagner replace Dupuis?

Among the Pens blue, I really like Kris Letang, but can't imagine the Pens moving him—and of course Gagner's value is not close to Letang's worth despite the difference in cap dollars. Pittsburgh has a lot of defensive prospects, but so does Edmonton, and I don't see a forward match here either. The two teams would have to be creative to get anything done. Do you see a match?

STARTING GOALIE

This is even-strength save percentage, NHL 2013-14. See anyone you like? Martin Jones is an interesting name, as is Ben Scrivens for that matter. Reimer in Toronto has been rumored heading here from time to time, and Jonas Hiller might end up being an Oiler via free agency this summer.

WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN?

Chances are Gagner will be dealt after the Olympics to a team in need of offense. I'll guess eastern conference, and will guess that it won't be a goalie. Beyond that, I'm out. Any guesses?

C2a6955161684b5e3189319acfa5ebe4
Lowetide has been one of the Oilogosphere's shining lights for over a century. You can check him out here at OilersNation and at lowetide.ca. He is also the host of Lowdown with Lowetide weekday mornings 10-noon on Team 1260.
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#51 Jerod
January 07 2014, 10:12PM
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Jerry wrote:

Oilers have lost the most games in regulation in the NHL.

Well done

This is where hockey players come to lose their heart. Gagner may become the luckiest player on the Oilers if he is Traded.

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#52 TonyT
January 07 2014, 10:20PM
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Josh Oiler wrote:

Oh yeah if I'm SHEA Weber is much rather play pro hockey in Nashville Tennessee (sarcasm), than play in HOCKEY MAD EDMONTON ALBERTA.

Have you actually been to Nashville for a game or anything for that matter? I go to a road game every year, and Nashville besides being a great city, easily was one of the best in-game atmospheres I've ever been to. What the fans lack in hockey IQ, they make up for involvement. Not that I work for Nashville tourism, but statements like yours sound just as intelligent as "players won't come to Edmonton because it's cold"...

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#53 BingBong
January 07 2014, 10:24PM
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At this point Gagner has no value. He's overpaid, has too long a term, is playing horribly, and has zero playoff experience. Only way he gets moved is in a package deal where MacT is forced to take a bad contract back. And if this trade is somehow accomplished I'm guessing it'll be to another non-playoff team; no contending team would be comfortable playing him in the playoffs.

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#54 outdoorzguy
January 07 2014, 10:25PM
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LT is sure using TSN stories to base his articles on lately. At least he gives credit where it's due but come on, can't you come up with something original?

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#55 Dog Train
January 07 2014, 10:26PM
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If we're looking for a top 6 forward, a top 4 D or a starting goaltender for Gagner, we might be looking for a while. That's just my opinion though, hopefully a team in need of some secondary scoring for their playoff push picks up the phone.

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#56 outdoorzguy
January 07 2014, 10:29PM
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Danger Pay wrote:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BnqaRY00Cug

This clip was posted in another article the other day. Reruns!!

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#58 Soccer Steve
January 07 2014, 10:43PM
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Josh Oiler wrote:

ANYWAYS LETS TALK ABOUT SHEA WEBER AND POSSIBLE TRADE SCENARIOS IN ORDER TO LAND HIM.

Who wants to begin?

You spelled Impossible wrong.

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#59 Old Retired Guy (A.K.A. Die-Nasty)
January 07 2014, 10:52PM
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Lowetide wrote:

The story (specifics of what it'll take to get Gagner out of Edmonton from Oilers pov) warranted an article. I actually hadn't planned on writing on this evening, but decided to when the information came out.

You've got a tough job LT....if I was you I'd just tell OutDorzGuy to take a hike......get it ...OutDorzGuy.....take a hike ......haha.......mind you I'd say take a hike Doucheb*g.....but it wouldn't be as funny cause doucheb*gs don't actually have feet......and you're too polite and professional to reference feminine hygiene products.....so....carry on.

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#60 Old Retired Guy (A.K.A. Die-Nasty)
January 07 2014, 10:53PM
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Soccer Steve wrote:

You spelled Impossible wrong.

Soccer Steve wins the internet today! That is all.

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#61 Lowe Expectations
January 07 2014, 10:57PM
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Wow, I bet all the GM's are just rushing to the phone knowing Sam Gagner is available (insert eye roll).

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#62 oilcountryforlife
January 07 2014, 10:58PM
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outdoorzguy wrote:

This clip was posted in another article the other day. Reruns!!

Fricken hilarious video....first time I've laughed as an Oilers fan in two months.

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#63 Serious Gord
January 07 2014, 11:15PM
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If MacT wants that much for gagner he should be fired.

No team in their right mind is valuing gagner as a net positive asset. That MacT so grossly overvalued him must make him a laughing stock among the GMs (the third in a row).

Lowetide that you would even post at length possible trades makes me shake my head...

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#64 gongshow
January 07 2014, 11:41PM
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A few random thoughts on moving Gagner...

1) Despite his warts as a center, Gagner is an NHLer. Maybe not a great center, but he has skills and apparently MacT thinks he's got the heart.

2) Who fills the hole down the middle if you move him. With Gags gone, you'd be looking at RNH/Gordon/Arcobello/Lander.

3) Are we at the point that we don't care how badly we get beat this season? I guess MacT hasn't had the pleasure himself of seeing the Oilers ball drop last (first overall) at the draft lottery. It's only so ofter that you get to experience moments like that.

4) After sending Horcoff away, does it make sense to just ship off another center without a backup plan?

5) As an afterthought, what would things look like right now if they had moved Gags and kept Horc instead?

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#65 40 Double D
January 07 2014, 11:50PM
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I'm not convinced that Gagner has no value. David Clarkson is playing like crap too but he isn't going to come cheap in a trade.

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#66 camdog
January 08 2014, 12:14AM
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If I am the Pens I pretend to be interested in Sam and then trade for Hemsky. If Hemsky works they sign him as a free agent, if he doesn't I let him walk. Pens aren't in a place to have Sam locked up for 3 years at 5 million, too many years on the table.

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#67 blood4oil
January 08 2014, 12:15AM
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RexHolez wrote:

I'm onboard the Jenner train too! Is there any other recent junior that we can get?? Getting younger should be key for this team

Getting younger should be key for this team? Are you nuts? A big part of the problems in Oilerville is an inexperienced roster and a lack of leadership once you get past Ference.

We need more veterans, we don't need to get younger.

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#68 Zarny
January 08 2014, 12:36AM
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Gagner is only 24 with 6 years experience. 50 pt per 82 games career average and on pace for 65 pt last year. Very low risk on a short contract with good upside offensively.

A top 6 F or top 4 D is the right value and there will be plenty of interest.

Contenders likely won't give up roster players until after the playoffs. At best you're getting a guy like Simon Despres.

More likely the Oilers are looking at non-playoff teams. Gagner won't get you Weber but perhaps Josi. Erhoff or Myers in Buf. Campbell or Kulikov in Fla. Methot in Ott. Gardiner in Tor. MacDonald in NYI. Byfuglien or Bogosian in Wpg. Yandle or Ekman-Larsson in Phx could be available tho you'd need to package draft picks or prospects too. Larssen or Zajac in NJ.

There are lots of options to move Gagner although likely more after the season finishes.

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#69 camdog
January 08 2014, 12:46AM
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@Zarny

Gags is low risk for non playoff non cap teams, however he is a high risk for a cup contending playoff team like Pittsburgh. So I guess I agree, with your comment in some respect.

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#70 Quinn the Eskimo
January 08 2014, 01:23AM
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ToppsSmith wrote:

Because Webber probably won't waive his no trade to go to Edmonton for one, for the second its cap space you would be looking at giving up a RNH or a Eberle for Webber

And number three is because Josh keeps shouting out names.

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#71 Andrew
January 08 2014, 01:32AM
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What would Gagner fetch you ask? Possibly a big atick or a rubber ball, as long as you didn't throw it too far.

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#72 Sisyphus
January 08 2014, 03:58AM
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I read the "ask" for Gagner, and then literally started to laugh. There isn't a chance in h3ll that we get anything remotely like that for Gagner. Best case scenario is we get some more picks back, maybe even a prospect if we're lucky.

He's been playing horribly, and hasn't progressed the way he needs to. He's about to start a very expensive (for what he can do) contract, with a term and a NTC that is particularly unappealing.

As someone said above--no way anyone in the hunt for the playoffs goes after him, and I dont see any other teams being interested either. Hemmer will have far more appeal to these teams, and they wont need to trade for him--just wait until he walks this summer.

The ONLY way Gagner is bringing back a top 4 D, goalie, etc., is if he is packaged with something like Yak, or Eberle, as a "here's a good player that you actually are doing this trade for, and please take Gagner off our hands too--pretty please"

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#73 Sisyphus
January 08 2014, 04:00AM
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camdog wrote:

Gags is low risk for non playoff non cap teams, however he is a high risk for a cup contending playoff team like Pittsburgh. So I guess I agree, with your comment in some respect.

Disagree re non-playoff teams. To me, he's still a pretty high risk to them. Considering how he has been playing this year, his size, his skill level given his age in the league, etc., his next contract is very expensive--and hasnt even begun yet. Add to that the NTC, so that a team that takes a chance on him is effectively totally stuck with him for the next several years, and I just dont see even non-playoff teams having any interest

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#74 ToppsSmith
January 08 2014, 05:50AM
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Josh Oiler wrote:

Oh yeah if I'm SHEA Weber is much rather play pro hockey in Nashville Tennessee (sarcasm), than play in HOCKEY MAD EDMONTON ALBERTA.

Yes I believe he would. Though Nashville isn't doing great this season, I know a few former Oilers who played, and a few other people in the NHL and their worst fear is being traded to Edmonton where they say their career will die. Try to not be a ignorant fan for two seconds and look at it like a player would. Team has been in trouble since 2007, management is... well just read the board. Players you see are visually upset after just about every game, and morale is very low. Having die hard fans in the city is all the team has going for it. If it was any place else besides in Edmonton most likely the team would be bankrupt and have to be moved. Who would waive a no trade to come to this unless they wanted to end their career in their hometown. We can't get Webber. If we do well I guess we will have to give up something like a Hall or Eberle, as that would be the asking price, also his contract would be tough to fit in.

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#75 Spydyr
January 08 2014, 06:48AM
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Josh Oiler is either Katz, Katz's kid or Lowe. Just not sure which one.

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#76 oilabroad
January 08 2014, 06:55AM
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I think some people might be surprised by what we get for Gagner, managers have a long memory and trade more on reputation than recent stats. If a guy is 34 than recent stats are a bit more relevant than a guy who is 24 and still on the upside of his career. I could easily see a trade for a Gardiner or a MDZ... they may not be top 4 on a lot of teams but they sure as hell would be on this one. At the end of the day, Gagner is not a good fit here as his skills are replicated throughout the top 6, but on the right team I think he could be a good pickup

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#77 Fresh Mess
January 08 2014, 07:28AM
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Josh Oiler wrote:

ANYWAYS LETS TALK ABOUT SHEA WEBER AND POSSIBLE TRADE SCENARIOS IN ORDER TO LAND HIM.

Who wants to begin?

A bit rough around the edges, but you are on the verge of being something special. Keep working on your craft. This post was a glimpse of your talent.

The picture and screen name are brilliant.

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#78 CaptainLander
January 08 2014, 07:42AM
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I think his worth would be something like Tuomo Ruutu and 4th round.

Umberger or Anisimov maybe??

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#79 Rod from Viking
January 08 2014, 08:11AM
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Gagner and Dubynk for Reimer and a second round pick?

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#80 wintoon
January 08 2014, 08:21AM
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This is once again a case of the Oilers over valuing one of their players. Gagner has a large contract, he's not good enough to play 2C on the worst team in the league, he can't win a face off, he doesn't/can't play defense and has never won a puck battle in his career.

Who in their right mind will make a substantial offer for this type of player?

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#81 Gordie Wayne
January 08 2014, 08:22AM
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Byfglieun is getting a lot of negative press in Winnipeg (and likely warranted):

Time To Dust Dustin

The thing is, even with his current play, he is likely better than most (if not all) of the Oilers defense. The article suggests a trade value of a top six forward and a late pick.

Could we do Gagner and a late pick (I would go as high as a 2nd rounder) for Byfuglien?

If he doesn't work out on defense, we can always put him in our top 6 like Chicago did early in his career?

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#82 oilfan in calgary
January 08 2014, 08:39AM
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anybody who thinks Gagner will fetch that kind of return is as delusional as the oilers brass.another in a long list of overated players.Marty Reasoner,Liam Reddox, Robert Nilson,Tobey Peterson and of course Patrick "the norwegian nightmare" Thoreson . Those are just the ones that come to mind.Instead of watching this #$%^show go on i prefer to watch reruns of Breaking Bad (pun intended)

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#83 Lurkeyson
January 08 2014, 08:44AM
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Zarny wrote:

Gagner is only 24 with 6 years experience. 50 pt per 82 games career average and on pace for 65 pt last year. Very low risk on a short contract with good upside offensively.

A top 6 F or top 4 D is the right value and there will be plenty of interest.

Contenders likely won't give up roster players until after the playoffs. At best you're getting a guy like Simon Despres.

More likely the Oilers are looking at non-playoff teams. Gagner won't get you Weber but perhaps Josi. Erhoff or Myers in Buf. Campbell or Kulikov in Fla. Methot in Ott. Gardiner in Tor. MacDonald in NYI. Byfuglien or Bogosian in Wpg. Yandle or Ekman-Larsson in Phx could be available tho you'd need to package draft picks or prospects too. Larssen or Zajac in NJ.

There are lots of options to move Gagner although likely more after the season finishes.

Oh yeah OEL is definitely available. Cut this guy off

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#84 A-Mc
January 08 2014, 09:03AM
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Josh Oiler wrote:

SAMMY GAGS + 2014 1st round pick FOR: EVANDER KANE

Change that to a 2nd round pick, and i'd look at that!

THe 1st round pick alone will end up being more valuable than Evander Kane

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#85 2004Z06
January 08 2014, 09:10AM
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wintoon wrote:

This is once again a case of the Oilers over valuing one of their players. Gagner has a large contract, he's not good enough to play 2C on the worst team in the league, he can't win a face off, he doesn't/can't play defense and has never won a puck battle in his career.

Who in their right mind will make a substantial offer for this type of player?

Someone looking for a scoring winger. No one said he has to play center!

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#86 Serious Gord
January 08 2014, 09:17AM
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2004Z06 wrote:

Someone looking for a scoring winger. No one said he has to play center!

Hard to see how gagner would be a better winger than he is a centre. Far too small to go and dig pucks, not much of a playmaker. If this were an option with upside i suspect that it would have been tried already.

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#87 Rod from Viking
January 08 2014, 09:24AM
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Rod from Viking wrote:

Gagner and Dubynk for Reimer and a second round pick?

This won't work under the cap, Could the Oilers take Kadri or Franson or Gunderson with Reimer?

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#88 A-Mc
January 08 2014, 09:28AM
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Gordie Wayne wrote:

Byfglieun is getting a lot of negative press in Winnipeg (and likely warranted):

Time To Dust Dustin

The thing is, even with his current play, he is likely better than most (if not all) of the Oilers defense. The article suggests a trade value of a top six forward and a late pick.

Could we do Gagner and a late pick (I would go as high as a 2nd rounder) for Byfuglien?

If he doesn't work out on defense, we can always put him in our top 6 like Chicago did early in his career?

If that announcement was made: Gagner + 3rd round pick to WPG for D. Byfuglien, I think I'd be ok with it.

I would be ok with it because i truly believe that we already have a centerman capable of playing a more defensively responsible game than Gagner, in Arcobello. Arco wont get as many points and he isn't as heavy as Gagner, but he is already better in almost every other stat and he plays heavier than Gagner.

Byf would bring experience to the group and a heavy body that isn't easily moved off the puck. Considering his defensive gaffes (as reported), i would still be OK with him because the guy we're losing does the same thing.

Throw into the Mix that if the Oilers end up drafting 1/2, there is always that chance that they take Sam Reinhart as the #2 C of the future, and look to sit on the Defensive prospects we already have. ie: Get some D Plugs until Nurse/Klef/Marincin are ready.

Ekblad is likely the best fit for the Oilers at this years draft, but it'll be years before we even see him in the NHL, and another 200-300 NHL games before he's the defenseman we need. While i absolutely think the Oilers would do great in drafting this kid, i think they might pass on him because of the time line. Sam Reinhart could literally come play in EDM next year (or give him 1 year in OKC before he comes up).

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#89 BobbyCanuck
January 08 2014, 09:34AM
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Dog Train wrote:

If we're looking for a top 6 forward, a top 4 D or a starting goaltender for Gagner, we might be looking for a while. That's just my opinion though, hopefully a team in need of some secondary scoring for their playoff push picks up the phone.

This is actually a slightly redacted quote, they missed the part 'top 6 forward, a top 4 D' the rest of it was from the AHL, as opposed to NHL level top 6F or top 4D . I think that trade maybe doable

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#90 mayorblaine
January 08 2014, 09:43AM
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i'd like to propose a trade of JOSH OILER and Mike Krushelnyski for a realistic dream and single post bot. i think it's fair.

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#91 Threepack
January 08 2014, 09:53AM
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Charisma Carpenter is all kinds of gorgeous. Thank you very much, Lowetide.

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#92 Lochenzo
January 08 2014, 09:59AM
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CBJ: Columbus is skill deficient, especially when Gaborik is out of the lineup. That James Wisniewski contract doesn't look as bad as it used to with prices going up. RJ Umberger is also a name that we've heard before.

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#93 Fish
January 08 2014, 10:16AM
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Straight up to Pens for O Matta or Gags Plus 2nd to Buf for Ehroff or to the Jets for Dustin Byfug.

My dream trade however is for Harmonic from the Isle. Maybe Gagner, and Marincine get it done? Maybe add in a 2nd? I'm okay if we overpay a little here.

If we got him our Right side is solid with him in the one slot, Petry and Schutlz to take the rest of the minutes. Respectable D core that is still pretty young and can stay together for awhile.

Then try to finagle Ehrhoff to take care of the 1LD slot with Ferrence, and Nurse (or Klefbom) playing clean up next year, whichever is more ready, and let the other ripen. It might cost a Klefbom to get an Ehrhoff though.

Draft Sam R. with our first overall and he takes up our 2nd C position.

I think that reasonably fixes the D, and rounds out the top 6 nicely.

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#94 pkam
January 08 2014, 10:26AM
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Bucknuck wrote:

Boy, Oilersnation has been a cesspit of negativity lately. Wow.

I see the Maple Leafs as a good match. They are not performing as well as some people expected them to, so there could be an appetite to move a player.

I think I would be OK with Clarkson and Reimer for Gagner and Dubnyk, providing Clarkson would waive his NTC. He's having a terrible season, but I think it's an aberration.

I don't understand why some people think Gagner's contract is bad, then they suggest to acquire Clarkson.

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#95 Danger Pay
January 08 2014, 10:29AM
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Josh Oiler wrote:

NAIL YAKUPOV + 2015 1st round pick for SHEA WEBER

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AM-7Ts-3wmY

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#96 Truth
January 08 2014, 10:45AM
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Oohhh fantasy trades.

Gagner, Eberle, and a pick or defensive prospect for Evander Kane and Byfuglien.

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#97 pkam
January 08 2014, 10:50AM
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I really don't understand some fans here.

A few years ago, they wanted Penner's head because Penners only showed up when he liked to, then they turn around and want Byfuglien.

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#98 TeddyTurnbuckle
January 08 2014, 10:53AM
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If that's the asking price he will never be moved. Be lucky if we got a third liner for him. Maybe a late first rounder.

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#99 Spoils
January 08 2014, 10:58AM
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Nobody is untradeable as long as you improve the fit of the team with the trade. think Avs trading all three of their #1 overalls prior to winning Stanley.

Why not package Gagner up with someone else. At this point I would go to Nashville and say - you have great D and need scoring...

Pick one from bucket A and one from bucket B and give us Shea Weber or Seth Jones - your pick.

Bucket A = RNH, THall, Eberle, JSchultz, Yak,

Bucket B = Perron, Gagner, Hemsky, Klefbom,

etc.

No1 D. Pronger styles...

BOLDMOVES time.

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#100 oilerjed
January 08 2014, 11:02AM
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To the many bitter posters who are bagging MacT for his asks, go back to the top of LTs article and start over. "TSN reported tonight that the "ask" for Sam Gagner is a top 6 forward, a top 4D or a starting goaltender."

TSN reported should be your first flag........ They have to say something in their umpteen hours of hockey "reporting" program.

Secondly, the worse the Oilers record gets this year, the less value posters see in our players. Im not an insider for sure but Im willing to bet that this is not how business works in the NHL. Value isnt based on team acheivments but past performance and future speculation. Putting Gags with bigger and better defenders on his line is a sure fire way for him to succeed. So IMO there is plenty of value left for a quality return. Im hoping MacT gets creative and tries to fix two holes with one deal, moving out a couple of players at once.

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