WHAT WOULD GAGNER FETCH THESE DAYS?

Lowetide
January 07 2014 07:10PM

TSN reported tonight that the "ask" for Sam Gagner is a top 6 forward, a top 4D or a starting goaltender. What would that look like? 

TRADE FOR ANOTHER GAGNER? TOP 6F

Gagner's contract (just signed this summer) is a $4.8 million dollar cap hit times three seasons (including this one), so there's clearly a need to have him inside the top 6F. The players in Gagner's cap hit range offer an interesting idea about what that kind of money buys you in today's NHL; I think Bryan Little is (45, 14-20-34) a good comparable for Gagner, about the same dollars and their point totals per 82 games march in lock step:

  • Little per 82gp: 21-27-48
  • Gagner per 82gp: 18-32-50

That seems about right, I think Little's current season would give him more value, but Gagner's coming on and has a solid offensive resume despite warts at center.

FANCY STATS COMPARABLES

12-13

13-14

The two season comparison from extra skater offers us a unique look at the two players (man, does shooting percentage make a difference) and shows the Corsi for % goes to the Jet.

TOP 4D

 

The Penguins have a ton of young defensemen and prospects, so maybe Gagner to the Pens could work (hat tip to Jonathan Willis for the Lavoie tweet). Could Gagner replace Dupuis?

Among the Pens blue, I really like Kris Letang, but can't imagine the Pens moving him—and of course Gagner's value is not close to Letang's worth despite the difference in cap dollars. Pittsburgh has a lot of defensive prospects, but so does Edmonton, and I don't see a forward match here either. The two teams would have to be creative to get anything done. Do you see a match?

STARTING GOALIE

This is even-strength save percentage, NHL 2013-14. See anyone you like? Martin Jones is an interesting name, as is Ben Scrivens for that matter. Reimer in Toronto has been rumored heading here from time to time, and Jonas Hiller might end up being an Oiler via free agency this summer.

WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN?

Chances are Gagner will be dealt after the Olympics to a team in need of offense. I'll guess eastern conference, and will guess that it won't be a goalie. Beyond that, I'm out. Any guesses?

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Lowetide has been one of the Oilogosphere's shining lights for over a century. You can check him out here at OilersNation and at lowetide.ca. He is also the host of Lowdown with Lowetide weekday mornings 10-noon on Team 1260.
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#1 Soccer Steve
January 07 2014, 10:43PM
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Josh Oiler wrote:

ANYWAYS LETS TALK ABOUT SHEA WEBER AND POSSIBLE TRADE SCENARIOS IN ORDER TO LAND HIM.

Who wants to begin?

You spelled Impossible wrong.

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#2 TonyT
January 07 2014, 10:20PM
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Josh Oiler wrote:

Oh yeah if I'm SHEA Weber is much rather play pro hockey in Nashville Tennessee (sarcasm), than play in HOCKEY MAD EDMONTON ALBERTA.

Have you actually been to Nashville for a game or anything for that matter? I go to a road game every year, and Nashville besides being a great city, easily was one of the best in-game atmospheres I've ever been to. What the fans lack in hockey IQ, they make up for involvement. Not that I work for Nashville tourism, but statements like yours sound just as intelligent as "players won't come to Edmonton because it's cold"...

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#4 **
January 07 2014, 07:31PM
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Gagner, like Hemsky, at this point would be addition by substraction.

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#5 Old Retired Guy (A.K.A. Die-Nasty)
January 07 2014, 10:53PM
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Soccer Steve wrote:

You spelled Impossible wrong.

Soccer Steve wins the internet today! That is all.

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#6 Walter Sobchak
January 07 2014, 08:01PM
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LT

I know I've mention this to you before but not on the nation here.

I know you think that dealing for more youth is bad, however.

I’ve been a huge fan of Boone Jenner since before the 2011 draft & became a fan fanatic at the WJC, I would like to know if a Gagner trade to CBJ could pry Jenner out of CBJ?

I believe this kid to be the real deal, I think as time goes on (next year or two) you’re going to see a real solid two way player emerge, He’s big, he’s fast, ultra-competitive, has good offensive upside but his two way game is what really impresses me, he has a solid frame at 6’2 210 & isn’t afraid to get a little dirty, the perfect future 2C.

I honestly don’t think the Oilers can get a like type trade for Gagner, in fact I can’t see the Oilers winning any trade involving Gagner, certainly not for veteran help, so what should MacTavish do?

I look back to what Sather use to do; he always seemed to find that perfect trade were it involved a veteran for almost developed talent.

This is MacTavish’s only play IMO, he's in a bad way and dealing from a point of weakness, which is all kinds of bad.

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#7 Saytalk
January 07 2014, 07:48PM
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I actually think Hemsky would be a better fit to replace Dupuis for the Pens, especially if it's as a short-term injury replacement at RW.

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#8 Oilers G- Nations Poet Laureate
January 07 2014, 07:25PM
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~Craig will be lucky

To get a sixth round draft pick

for snowpants Sammy~

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#9 RexHolez
January 07 2014, 07:56PM
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Lowetide wrote:

Just got back from the WJ's in Sweden.

Maybe we can get Curtis Lazar for him? I think we need to get younger

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#10 Lowe Expectations
January 07 2014, 10:57PM
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Wow, I bet all the GM's are just rushing to the phone knowing Sam Gagner is available (insert eye roll).

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#11 God
January 07 2014, 07:21PM
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He'd fetch a bag of pucks. That is all.

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#12 Jerod
January 07 2014, 10:12PM
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Jerry wrote:

Oilers have lost the most games in regulation in the NHL.

Well done

This is where hockey players come to lose their heart. Gagner may become the luckiest player on the Oilers if he is Traded.

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#13 Big Slick
January 07 2014, 09:33PM
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Gagner for Byfuglien?

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#14 BingBong
January 07 2014, 10:24PM
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At this point Gagner has no value. He's overpaid, has too long a term, is playing horribly, and has zero playoff experience. Only way he gets moved is in a package deal where MacT is forced to take a bad contract back. And if this trade is somehow accomplished I'm guessing it'll be to another non-playoff team; no contending team would be comfortable playing him in the playoffs.

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#15 sintaxi
January 07 2014, 07:36PM
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Oilers MAY have got this asking price if they had moved SG in the summer, but not now.

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#17 Old Retired Guy (A.K.A. Die-Nasty)
January 07 2014, 09:43PM
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What would Gagner fetch these days? WATER! Haven't you been listening!

But seriously, thanks for asking! Addition by subtraction. I'll be happy with whatever return they get.

I like W Sobchuck's idea of Boone Jenner, I'd take Curtis Lazar, I'd take Bryan Little, Valerie Filpulla, Steven Weiss, Brandon Dubinsky, Thomas Fleischman, Erhoff, Girgensons, Grigerenko, Brian Boyle.

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#18 The Real Scuba Steve
January 07 2014, 07:28PM
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Man, at the start of training camp Sam was the man, MacT was singing his praises, and now he is trade bait. And where is MacT? in hiding?

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#19 Sid
January 07 2014, 07:39PM
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Oilers are the joke of the league. Who cares what they do. Gagner would be lucky to leave this organization. Oilers ruin players.

How long will it take before Darnell Nurse loses his heart?

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#20 Jeffff
January 07 2014, 07:43PM
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So funny how oiler fans thought that having a MBA translates to great GM.

He says all the right things and so does the coach. Lowe not so much he is an idiot. Results Results Results.

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#21 Johe
January 07 2014, 07:44PM
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Del Zotto? Gardiner? Colin Wilson? Troy Brouwer? Byfuglien?

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#22 Zarny
January 08 2014, 12:36AM
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Gagner is only 24 with 6 years experience. 50 pt per 82 games career average and on pace for 65 pt last year. Very low risk on a short contract with good upside offensively.

A top 6 F or top 4 D is the right value and there will be plenty of interest.

Contenders likely won't give up roster players until after the playoffs. At best you're getting a guy like Simon Despres.

More likely the Oilers are looking at non-playoff teams. Gagner won't get you Weber but perhaps Josi. Erhoff or Myers in Buf. Campbell or Kulikov in Fla. Methot in Ott. Gardiner in Tor. MacDonald in NYI. Byfuglien or Bogosian in Wpg. Yandle or Ekman-Larsson in Phx could be available tho you'd need to package draft picks or prospects too. Larssen or Zajac in NJ.

There are lots of options to move Gagner although likely more after the season finishes.

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#23 Dog Train
January 07 2014, 10:26PM
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If we're looking for a top 6 forward, a top 4 D or a starting goaltender for Gagner, we might be looking for a while. That's just my opinion though, hopefully a team in need of some secondary scoring for their playoff push picks up the phone.

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#24 Craig1981
January 07 2014, 07:36PM
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I would say, chances are, there is no trade involving Gagner. Think this is media hype, now that they don't have the "Subban Story" to WAY over-hype

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#25 Old Retired Guy (A.K.A. Die-Nasty)
January 07 2014, 10:52PM
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Lowetide wrote:

The story (specifics of what it'll take to get Gagner out of Edmonton from Oilers pov) warranted an article. I actually hadn't planned on writing on this evening, but decided to when the information came out.

You've got a tough job LT....if I was you I'd just tell OutDorzGuy to take a hike......get it ...OutDorzGuy.....take a hike ......haha.......mind you I'd say take a hike Doucheb*g.....but it wouldn't be as funny cause doucheb*gs don't actually have feet......and you're too polite and professional to reference feminine hygiene products.....so....carry on.

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#26 D
January 07 2014, 07:41PM
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Hope MacT pulls something off LT, but it's hard to see Gagner fetching much of a return.

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#27 Josh Oiler
January 07 2014, 07:58PM
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NAIL YAKUPOV + 2015 1st round pick for SHEA WEBER

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#28 gongshow
January 07 2014, 11:41PM
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A few random thoughts on moving Gagner...

1) Despite his warts as a center, Gagner is an NHLer. Maybe not a great center, but he has skills and apparently MacT thinks he's got the heart.

2) Who fills the hole down the middle if you move him. With Gags gone, you'd be looking at RNH/Gordon/Arcobello/Lander.

3) Are we at the point that we don't care how badly we get beat this season? I guess MacT hasn't had the pleasure himself of seeing the Oilers ball drop last (first overall) at the draft lottery. It's only so ofter that you get to experience moments like that.

4) After sending Horcoff away, does it make sense to just ship off another center without a backup plan?

5) As an afterthought, what would things look like right now if they had moved Gags and kept Horc instead?

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#29 camdog
January 08 2014, 12:14AM
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If I am the Pens I pretend to be interested in Sam and then trade for Hemsky. If Hemsky works they sign him as a free agent, if he doesn't I let him walk. Pens aren't in a place to have Sam locked up for 3 years at 5 million, too many years on the table.

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#30 Jamie B.
January 07 2014, 07:36PM
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Wondering what Elliotte meant by a "soft landing". A team which might actually make the playoffs? Somewhere he'd be a big part of the team? Location? (Presumably Ontario ... if it's Calgary I f&%@ing quit.)

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#31 Jerry
January 07 2014, 10:10PM
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Oilers have lost the most games in regulation in the NHL.

Well done

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#32 corky
January 07 2014, 07:50PM
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When will the time come when Hall and Ebs tire of being Oilers? Sam will be the one laughing in the end.

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#33 Bucknuck
January 07 2014, 08:04PM
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Boy, Oilersnation has been a cesspit of negativity lately. Wow.

I see the Maple Leafs as a good match. They are not performing as well as some people expected them to, so there could be an appetite to move a player.

I think I would be OK with Clarkson and Reimer for Gagner and Dubnyk, providing Clarkson would waive his NTC. He's having a terrible season, but I think it's an aberration.

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#34 RexHolez
January 07 2014, 08:12PM
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Lowetide wrote:

I think the Oilers can't keep doing this losing thing, and any move made this summer has to be with an eye to improving every possible slot on that 23-man roster.

If Jenner does that, then I'm onside.

I'm onboard the Jenner train too! Is there any other recent junior that we can get?? Getting younger should be key for this team

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#35 ToppsSmith
January 07 2014, 08:23PM
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Josh Oiler wrote:

MACTAVISH SAYS WE NEED A BIG STUD MINUTE MUNCHING DEFENSEMAN.

IF MACTAVISH SAID THAT, THEN WHY ARE WE NOT TALKING ABOUT SHEA WEBER!!

Because Webber probably won't waive his no trade to go to Edmonton for one, for the second its cap space you would be looking at giving up a RNH or a Eberle for Webber

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#36 Walter Sobchak
January 07 2014, 09:41PM
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ToppsSmith wrote:

Because Webber probably won't waive his no trade to go to Edmonton for one, for the second its cap space you would be looking at giving up a RNH or a Eberle for Webber

Weber doesn't have a NTC, it became void when he signed the Flyers offer sheet.

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#37 pkam
January 08 2014, 11:28AM
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Spoils wrote:

Nobody is untradeable as long as you improve the fit of the team with the trade. think Avs trading all three of their #1 overalls prior to winning Stanley.

Why not package Gagner up with someone else. At this point I would go to Nashville and say - you have great D and need scoring...

Pick one from bucket A and one from bucket B and give us Shea Weber or Seth Jones - your pick.

Bucket A = RNH, THall, Eberle, JSchultz, Yak,

Bucket B = Perron, Gagner, Hemsky, Klefbom,

etc.

No1 D. Pronger styles...

BOLDMOVES time.

Easy choice for Poile.

Hall + Perron for Jones.

Hall was 1st overall 4 years ago. Despite playing off position for a few games to start the season, he is now 4th LW in PPG, although his team is 2nd last in standing. Not to mention his 6+ years left in his 6M contract, one of the best contracts you can find.

Jones is just a rookie, although he has a lot of potential, it is just potential.

We have a pretty good chance to draft Ekblad this year, why would we want to give up Hall + Perron for Jones? Is Jones really that much better than Aaron Ekblad?

I hope MacT is not that naive.

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#39 Soccer Steve
January 07 2014, 09:24PM
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Don't have any guesses about his return but we should all remember, not too long ago, that we netted Perron for MPS. Maybe lightning strikes twice with Gagner.

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#40 40 Double D
January 07 2014, 11:50PM
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I'm not convinced that Gagner has no value. David Clarkson is playing like crap too but he isn't going to come cheap in a trade.

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#41 Andrew
January 08 2014, 01:32AM
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What would Gagner fetch you ask? Possibly a big atick or a rubber ball, as long as you didn't throw it too far.

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#42 Gordie Wayne
January 08 2014, 08:22AM
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Byfglieun is getting a lot of negative press in Winnipeg (and likely warranted):

Time To Dust Dustin

The thing is, even with his current play, he is likely better than most (if not all) of the Oilers defense. The article suggests a trade value of a top six forward and a late pick.

Could we do Gagner and a late pick (I would go as high as a 2nd rounder) for Byfuglien?

If he doesn't work out on defense, we can always put him in our top 6 like Chicago did early in his career?

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#43 mayorblaine
January 08 2014, 09:43AM
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i'd like to propose a trade of JOSH OILER and Mike Krushelnyski for a realistic dream and single post bot. i think it's fair.

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#44 Freewheeling Freddie
January 07 2014, 07:28PM
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When Sam had 8 points you could have had a great trade. Now maybe we could get a Jarrod Smithson. The Oilers should"nt trade Gagner at this time they will get zippo in return .But if there is another sucker gm out there then go for it. However most Gms are quite bright on other teams.

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#45 Spydyr
January 08 2014, 06:48AM
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Josh Oiler is either Katz, Katz's kid or Lowe. Just not sure which one.

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#46 blood4oil
January 08 2014, 12:15AM
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RexHolez wrote:

I'm onboard the Jenner train too! Is there any other recent junior that we can get?? Getting younger should be key for this team

Getting younger should be key for this team? Are you nuts? A big part of the problems in Oilerville is an inexperienced roster and a lack of leadership once you get past Ference.

We need more veterans, we don't need to get younger.

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#47 shaddup
January 08 2014, 01:57PM
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Josh Oiler wrote:

NAIL YAKUPOV + 2015 1st round pick for SHEA WEBER

Santa Claus and the Easter Bunny for Sid Crosby

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#48 vetinari
January 07 2014, 07:36PM
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I can see something shake out with Toronto or Carolina, but multiple pieces would need to be involved, and money would need to balance out. I could also see the Rangers or the Pens being suitable trade partners.

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#49 **
January 07 2014, 07:48PM
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Jeffff wrote:

So funny how oiler fans thought that having a MBA translates to great GM.

He says all the right things and so does the coach. Lowe not so much he is an idiot. Results Results Results.

I don't remember oilers fans being consulted by Lowe on whether Mac Tavish should have been hired or not, unless by oilers fans you mean Kevin Lowe and Daryl KAtz.

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#50 Brian
January 07 2014, 09:02PM
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Danger Pay wrote:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BnqaRY00Cug

Buddy, I'm afraid to watch this. I cracked a rib laughing at the last one you posted.

On another note, see Lapierre flick Brad Hunt away like he was a mosquito on his arm, or like he was a 5'6 " Dman (5'9" my ass).

The Blues also like to play the "swarm" but I'm not sure it's the one Eakins had in mind.

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