WHAT WOULD GAGNER FETCH THESE DAYS?

Lowetide
January 07 2014 07:10PM

TSN reported tonight that the "ask" for Sam Gagner is a top 6 forward, a top 4D or a starting goaltender. What would that look like? 

TRADE FOR ANOTHER GAGNER? TOP 6F

Gagner's contract (just signed this summer) is a $4.8 million dollar cap hit times three seasons (including this one), so there's clearly a need to have him inside the top 6F. The players in Gagner's cap hit range offer an interesting idea about what that kind of money buys you in today's NHL; I think Bryan Little is (45, 14-20-34) a good comparable for Gagner, about the same dollars and their point totals per 82 games march in lock step:

  • Little per 82gp: 21-27-48
  • Gagner per 82gp: 18-32-50

That seems about right, I think Little's current season would give him more value, but Gagner's coming on and has a solid offensive resume despite warts at center.

FANCY STATS COMPARABLES

12-13

13-14

The two season comparison from extra skater offers us a unique look at the two players (man, does shooting percentage make a difference) and shows the Corsi for % goes to the Jet.

TOP 4D

 

The Penguins have a ton of young defensemen and prospects, so maybe Gagner to the Pens could work (hat tip to Jonathan Willis for the Lavoie tweet). Could Gagner replace Dupuis?

Among the Pens blue, I really like Kris Letang, but can't imagine the Pens moving him—and of course Gagner's value is not close to Letang's worth despite the difference in cap dollars. Pittsburgh has a lot of defensive prospects, but so does Edmonton, and I don't see a forward match here either. The two teams would have to be creative to get anything done. Do you see a match?

STARTING GOALIE

This is even-strength save percentage, NHL 2013-14. See anyone you like? Martin Jones is an interesting name, as is Ben Scrivens for that matter. Reimer in Toronto has been rumored heading here from time to time, and Jonas Hiller might end up being an Oiler via free agency this summer.

WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN?

Chances are Gagner will be dealt after the Olympics to a team in need of offense. I'll guess eastern conference, and will guess that it won't be a goalie. Beyond that, I'm out. Any guesses?

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Lowetide has been one of the Oilogosphere's shining lights for over a century. You can check him out here at OilersNation and at lowetide.ca. He is also the host of Lowdown with Lowetide weekday mornings 10-noon on Team 1260.
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#1 Josh Oiler
January 07 2014, 07:56PM
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Ales HEMSKY + Oskar Klefbom + Tyler Pitlick For Tyler Meyers

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#2 Josh Oiler
January 07 2014, 07:49PM
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SAMMY GAGS + 2014 1st round pick FOR: EVANDER KANE

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#3 Josh Oiler
January 07 2014, 07:56PM
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Ales HEMSKY + Oskar Klefbom + Tyler Pitlick For Tyler Meyers

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#4 Josh Oiler
January 07 2014, 07:58PM
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NAIL YAKUPOV + 2015 1st round pick for SHEA WEBER

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#5 Josh Oiler
January 07 2014, 08:21PM
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MACTAVISH SAYS WE NEED A BIG STUD MINUTE MUNCHING DEFENSEMAN.

IF MACTAVISH SAID THAT, THEN WHY ARE WE NOT TALKING ABOUT SHEA WEBER!!

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#6 Josh Oiler
January 07 2014, 09:38PM
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ANYWAYS LETS TALK ABOUT SHEA WEBER AND POSSIBLE TRADE SCENARIOS IN ORDER TO LAND HIM.

Who wants to begin?

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#7 outdoorzguy
January 07 2014, 10:25PM
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LT is sure using TSN stories to base his articles on lately. At least he gives credit where it's due but come on, can't you come up with something original?

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#8 Josh Oiler
January 07 2014, 09:34PM
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Btw DARREN DREGER is a pompous, fake as it gets, idiotic, undercover Leafs Fan, piece of $h!+. He talks about his sources... What sources??? He watches Leafs Nation Message Boards and tries to make sense of his BS. Ain't no GM in the league want to talk with him. TSN SHOULD FIRE HIS A$$

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#9 Josh Oiler
January 07 2014, 09:25PM
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ToppsSmith wrote:

Because Webber probably won't waive his no trade to go to Edmonton for one, for the second its cap space you would be looking at giving up a RNH or a Eberle for Webber

Oh yeah if I'm SHEA Weber is much rather play pro hockey in Nashville Tennessee (sarcasm), than play in HOCKEY MAD EDMONTON ALBERTA.

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#10 Josh Oiler
January 07 2014, 09:21PM
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reduced2tears wrote:

Gagner, Hemsky, 1st rounder, and Marincin for Luke Schenn and Wayne Simmonds.

I like this trade scenario.. Probably one of the best I've seen on here!!!

Although I have a feeling Marincin is going to be a huge star in the very near future.. Almost a diamond in the rough.. Only my speculation.

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#11 Sid
January 07 2014, 07:39PM
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Oilers are the joke of the league. Who cares what they do. Gagner would be lucky to leave this organization. Oilers ruin players.

How long will it take before Darnell Nurse loses his heart?

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#12 **
January 07 2014, 07:31PM
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Gagner, like Hemsky, at this point would be addition by substraction.

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#13 Ari Gold
January 07 2014, 07:21PM
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He'd fetch a bag of pucks. That is all.

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#14 reduced2tears
January 07 2014, 08:59PM
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Gagner, Hemsky, 1st rounder, and Marincin for Luke Schenn and Wayne Simmonds.

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#15 Oilers G- Nations Poet Laureate
January 07 2014, 07:25PM
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~Craig will be lucky

To get a sixth round draft pick

for snowpants Sammy~

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#16 Bucknuck
January 07 2014, 08:04PM
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Boy, Oilersnation has been a cesspit of negativity lately. Wow.

I see the Maple Leafs as a good match. They are not performing as well as some people expected them to, so there could be an appetite to move a player.

I think I would be OK with Clarkson and Reimer for Gagner and Dubnyk, providing Clarkson would waive his NTC. He's having a terrible season, but I think it's an aberration.

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#17 Serious Gord
January 07 2014, 11:15PM
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If MacT wants that much for gagner he should be fired.

No team in their right mind is valuing gagner as a net positive asset. That MacT so grossly overvalued him must make him a laughing stock among the GMs (the third in a row).

Lowetide that you would even post at length possible trades makes me shake my head...

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#18 Freewheeling Freddie
January 07 2014, 07:28PM
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When Sam had 8 points you could have had a great trade. Now maybe we could get a Jarrod Smithson. The Oilers should"nt trade Gagner at this time they will get zippo in return .But if there is another sucker gm out there then go for it. However most Gms are quite bright on other teams.

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#19 Jerod
January 07 2014, 07:35PM
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This management cannot do anything right, so trading Gagner or not will end up hurting the Oilers. But who cares not management

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#20 BingBong
January 07 2014, 10:24PM
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At this point Gagner has no value. He's overpaid, has too long a term, is playing horribly, and has zero playoff experience. Only way he gets moved is in a package deal where MacT is forced to take a bad contract back. And if this trade is somehow accomplished I'm guessing it'll be to another non-playoff team; no contending team would be comfortable playing him in the playoffs.

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#21 Jeffff
January 07 2014, 07:43PM
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So funny how oiler fans thought that having a MBA translates to great GM.

He says all the right things and so does the coach. Lowe not so much he is an idiot. Results Results Results.

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#22 **
January 07 2014, 07:41PM
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Danger Pay wrote:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BnqaRY00Cug

dude, you do know Katz is from the people of the star of David, right?

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#23 Reg Dunlop
January 07 2014, 08:34PM
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Gagner plus our 1st round pick is worth less than the pick by itself. The most valuable asset that Mact will move at the deadline will be the crazy Soviet goalie. Which is too bad because he evidently has stayed on his meds and he finally painted his mask. The only other move coming is Schultz sr. Maybe for a 2nd rounder. In summary, development of assets is the only way we improve, and mgmt. better stay conservative in publically stating their objectives regarding player performance and acquisition. Fans that don't expect anything are never bitterly disappointed.

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#24 corky
January 07 2014, 07:50PM
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When will the time come when Hall and Ebs tire of being Oilers? Sam will be the one laughing in the end.

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#25 Zarny
January 08 2014, 12:36AM
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Gagner is only 24 with 6 years experience. 50 pt per 82 games career average and on pace for 65 pt last year. Very low risk on a short contract with good upside offensively.

A top 6 F or top 4 D is the right value and there will be plenty of interest.

Contenders likely won't give up roster players until after the playoffs. At best you're getting a guy like Simon Despres.

More likely the Oilers are looking at non-playoff teams. Gagner won't get you Weber but perhaps Josi. Erhoff or Myers in Buf. Campbell or Kulikov in Fla. Methot in Ott. Gardiner in Tor. MacDonald in NYI. Byfuglien or Bogosian in Wpg. Yandle or Ekman-Larsson in Phx could be available tho you'd need to package draft picks or prospects too. Larssen or Zajac in NJ.

There are lots of options to move Gagner although likely more after the season finishes.

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#26 The Oilers Shot Clock
January 08 2014, 11:56AM
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Montreal must be looking for centers. Briere plays limited minutes and Gally is hurt. Gagner plus Klefbom for Gallagher?

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#27 ToppsSmith
January 07 2014, 08:23PM
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Josh Oiler wrote:

MACTAVISH SAYS WE NEED A BIG STUD MINUTE MUNCHING DEFENSEMAN.

IF MACTAVISH SAID THAT, THEN WHY ARE WE NOT TALKING ABOUT SHEA WEBER!!

Because Webber probably won't waive his no trade to go to Edmonton for one, for the second its cap space you would be looking at giving up a RNH or a Eberle for Webber

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#28 The Real Scuba Steve
January 07 2014, 07:28PM
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Man, at the start of training camp Sam was the man, MacT was singing his praises, and now he is trade bait. And where is MacT? in hiding?

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#29 Sisyphus
January 08 2014, 03:58AM
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I read the "ask" for Gagner, and then literally started to laugh. There isn't a chance in h3ll that we get anything remotely like that for Gagner. Best case scenario is we get some more picks back, maybe even a prospect if we're lucky.

He's been playing horribly, and hasn't progressed the way he needs to. He's about to start a very expensive (for what he can do) contract, with a term and a NTC that is particularly unappealing.

As someone said above--no way anyone in the hunt for the playoffs goes after him, and I dont see any other teams being interested either. Hemmer will have far more appeal to these teams, and they wont need to trade for him--just wait until he walks this summer.

The ONLY way Gagner is bringing back a top 4 D, goalie, etc., is if he is packaged with something like Yak, or Eberle, as a "here's a good player that you actually are doing this trade for, and please take Gagner off our hands too--pretty please"

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#30 reduced2tears
January 07 2014, 08:42PM
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Gagner and Larsen for Zach Smith and Colin Greening.

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#31 Andrew
January 08 2014, 01:32AM
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What would Gagner fetch you ask? Possibly a big atick or a rubber ball, as long as you didn't throw it too far.

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#32 Truth
January 08 2014, 12:11PM
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Yak for Pacioretty and a pick.

Pacioretty has taken a little heat in Montreal, Yak gets a lot of heat in Edmonton. Yak has a higher upside. If I was Montreal I would like the idea of Galchenyuk and Yak back together.

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#33 Danger Pay
January 07 2014, 07:11PM
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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BnqaRY00Cug

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#34 Big Slick
January 07 2014, 09:33PM
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Gagner for Byfuglien?

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#35 oilfan in calgary
January 08 2014, 08:39AM
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anybody who thinks Gagner will fetch that kind of return is as delusional as the oilers brass.another in a long list of overated players.Marty Reasoner,Liam Reddox, Robert Nilson,Tobey Peterson and of course Patrick "the norwegian nightmare" Thoreson . Those are just the ones that come to mind.Instead of watching this #$%^show go on i prefer to watch reruns of Breaking Bad (pun intended)

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#37 Jerod
January 07 2014, 10:12PM
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Jerry wrote:

Oilers have lost the most games in regulation in the NHL.

Well done

This is where hockey players come to lose their heart. Gagner may become the luckiest player on the Oilers if he is Traded.

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#38 outdoorzguy
January 07 2014, 10:29PM
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Danger Pay wrote:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BnqaRY00Cug

This clip was posted in another article the other day. Reruns!!

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#39 Lowe Expectations
January 07 2014, 10:57PM
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Wow, I bet all the GM's are just rushing to the phone knowing Sam Gagner is available (insert eye roll).

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#40 blood4oil
January 08 2014, 12:15AM
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RexHolez wrote:

I'm onboard the Jenner train too! Is there any other recent junior that we can get?? Getting younger should be key for this team

Getting younger should be key for this team? Are you nuts? A big part of the problems in Oilerville is an inexperienced roster and a lack of leadership once you get past Ference.

We need more veterans, we don't need to get younger.

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#41 sintaxi
January 07 2014, 07:36PM
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Oilers MAY have got this asking price if they had moved SG in the summer, but not now.

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#42 Craig1981
January 07 2014, 07:36PM
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I would say, chances are, there is no trade involving Gagner. Think this is media hype, now that they don't have the "Subban Story" to WAY over-hype

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#43 **
January 07 2014, 07:48PM
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Jeffff wrote:

So funny how oiler fans thought that having a MBA translates to great GM.

He says all the right things and so does the coach. Lowe not so much he is an idiot. Results Results Results.

I don't remember oilers fans being consulted by Lowe on whether Mac Tavish should have been hired or not, unless by oilers fans you mean Kevin Lowe and Daryl KAtz.

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#44 RexHolez
January 07 2014, 07:56PM
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Lowetide wrote:

Just got back from the WJ's in Sweden.

Maybe we can get Curtis Lazar for him? I think we need to get younger

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#45 Old Retired Guy (A.K.A. Die-Nasty)
January 07 2014, 09:43PM
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What would Gagner fetch these days? WATER! Haven't you been listening!

But seriously, thanks for asking! Addition by subtraction. I'll be happy with whatever return they get.

I like W Sobchuck's idea of Boone Jenner, I'd take Curtis Lazar, I'd take Bryan Little, Valerie Filpulla, Steven Weiss, Brandon Dubinsky, Thomas Fleischman, Erhoff, Girgensons, Grigerenko, Brian Boyle.

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#46 oilabroad
January 08 2014, 06:55AM
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I think some people might be surprised by what we get for Gagner, managers have a long memory and trade more on reputation than recent stats. If a guy is 34 than recent stats are a bit more relevant than a guy who is 24 and still on the upside of his career. I could easily see a trade for a Gardiner or a MDZ... they may not be top 4 on a lot of teams but they sure as hell would be on this one. At the end of the day, Gagner is not a good fit here as his skills are replicated throughout the top 6, but on the right team I think he could be a good pickup

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#47 TeddyTurnbuckle
January 08 2014, 12:31PM
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Worse than Cogliano - check Making more than Cogliano - check

Good luck with this one Mac t

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#48 Johe
January 07 2014, 07:44PM
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Del Zotto? Gardiner? Colin Wilson? Troy Brouwer? Byfuglien?

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#49 G-Unit
January 07 2014, 08:24PM
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A young player that I really like is Cody Eakins. He isn't enough for Gagner, but maybe a second rounder on top.

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#50 40 Double D
January 07 2014, 11:50PM
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I'm not convinced that Gagner has no value. David Clarkson is playing like crap too but he isn't going to come cheap in a trade.

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