January 07 2014 07:10PM
TSN reported tonight that the "ask" for Sam Gagner is a top 6 forward, a top 4D or a starting goaltender. What would that look like?
TRADE FOR ANOTHER GAGNER? TOP 6F
Gagner's contract (just signed this summer) is a $4.8 million dollar cap hit times three seasons (including this one), so there's clearly a need to have him inside the top 6F. The players in Gagner's cap hit range offer an interesting idea about what that kind of money buys you in today's NHL; I think Bryan Little is (45, 14-20-34) a good comparable for Gagner, about the same dollars and their point totals per 82 games march in lock step:
- Little per 82gp: 21-27-48
- Gagner per 82gp: 18-32-50
That seems about right, I think Little's current season would give him more value, but Gagner's coming on and has a solid offensive resume despite warts at center.
FANCY STATS COMPARABLES
The two season comparison from extra skater offers us a unique look at the two players (man, does shooting percentage make a difference) and shows the Corsi for % goes to the Jet.
The Penguins have a ton of young defensemen and prospects, so maybe Gagner to the Pens could work (hat tip to Jonathan Willis for the Lavoie tweet). Could Gagner replace Dupuis?
Among the Pens blue, I really like Kris Letang, but can't imagine the Pens moving him—and of course Gagner's value is not close to Letang's worth despite the difference in cap dollars. Pittsburgh has a lot of defensive prospects, but so does Edmonton, and I don't see a forward match here either. The two teams would have to be creative to get anything done. Do you see a match?
This is even-strength save percentage, NHL 2013-14. See anyone you like? Martin Jones is an interesting name, as is Ben Scrivens for that matter. Reimer in Toronto has been rumored heading here from time to time, and Jonas Hiller might end up being an Oiler via free agency this summer.
WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN?
Chances are Gagner will be dealt after the Olympics to a team in need of offense. I'll guess eastern conference, and will guess that it won't be a goalie. Beyond that, I'm out. Any guesses?