WHAT WOULD GAGNER FETCH THESE DAYS?

Lowetide
January 07 2014 07:10PM

TSN reported tonight that the "ask" for Sam Gagner is a top 6 forward, a top 4D or a starting goaltender. What would that look like? 

TRADE FOR ANOTHER GAGNER? TOP 6F

Gagner's contract (just signed this summer) is a $4.8 million dollar cap hit times three seasons (including this one), so there's clearly a need to have him inside the top 6F. The players in Gagner's cap hit range offer an interesting idea about what that kind of money buys you in today's NHL; I think Bryan Little is (45, 14-20-34) a good comparable for Gagner, about the same dollars and their point totals per 82 games march in lock step:

  • Little per 82gp: 21-27-48
  • Gagner per 82gp: 18-32-50

That seems about right, I think Little's current season would give him more value, but Gagner's coming on and has a solid offensive resume despite warts at center.

FANCY STATS COMPARABLES

12-13

13-14

The two season comparison from extra skater offers us a unique look at the two players (man, does shooting percentage make a difference) and shows the Corsi for % goes to the Jet.

TOP 4D

 

The Penguins have a ton of young defensemen and prospects, so maybe Gagner to the Pens could work (hat tip to Jonathan Willis for the Lavoie tweet). Could Gagner replace Dupuis?

Among the Pens blue, I really like Kris Letang, but can't imagine the Pens moving him—and of course Gagner's value is not close to Letang's worth despite the difference in cap dollars. Pittsburgh has a lot of defensive prospects, but so does Edmonton, and I don't see a forward match here either. The two teams would have to be creative to get anything done. Do you see a match?

STARTING GOALIE

This is even-strength save percentage, NHL 2013-14. See anyone you like? Martin Jones is an interesting name, as is Ben Scrivens for that matter. Reimer in Toronto has been rumored heading here from time to time, and Jonas Hiller might end up being an Oiler via free agency this summer.

WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN?

Chances are Gagner will be dealt after the Olympics to a team in need of offense. I'll guess eastern conference, and will guess that it won't be a goalie. Beyond that, I'm out. Any guesses?

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Lowetide has been one of the Oilogosphere's shining lights for over a century. You can check him out here at OilersNation and at lowetide.ca. He is also the host of Lowdown with Lowetide weekday mornings 10-noon on Team 1260.
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#151 2004Z06
January 09 2014, 12:11PM
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Cubro wrote:

So what you're saying is that management did "all they could" to acquire a #1 goalie. Obviously they didnt do good enough, maybe the asking prices were high but in this league you have to make these deals sometimes. Take off your rosy coloured glasses.

They also tried to get Raanta but he elected to go to Chicago. I don't believe anyone expected Dubnyk/Labarbera to be as bad as they were so it was likely the expectation that a .920 sv% would suffice to get through the season and then they would grab a goalie through free agency.

It was a gamble that didn't pay off, and Mac T then tried to rectify the situation by moving Labarbera and picking up Bryzgalov.

That's 10x the effort Tambellini would have expended.

The biggest issue in my eyes affecting all aspect of the Oilers success this year is the lack of legitimate NHL defensemen.

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#152 pkam
January 09 2014, 01:09PM
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armchair GMing wrote:

I know we are all tired of Weber trade offers on ON, but I have a deal that I think makes sense for all involved. Here's my thought process:

Oilers desperately need a #1D (Weber), but no way Nashville gives him up without getting someone who can go some way to replacing Weber on D. Since the Oil do not have anyone like that, we go for a three-way trade and get Buffalo to send Erhoff (I know he has a NTC but if I was him I would flee Buffalo right now). To pry Erhoff from Buffalo we send over Petry (to go some way in replacing Erhoff) plus our first in this year's draft. Seems to me like an overpayment, so we also ask to get, say, a top 9F (M. Foligno?) from Buffalo as well. Then we send Eberle to Nashville to get Weber, and Nashville gets the first line sniper they badly need. Also noteworthy: some buzz was made at the start of the season when Jones was forced to his off-side to play with Weber, and Erhoff allows Jones to go back to his natural side.

To recap:

To Nashville: Eberle Ehroff

To Edmonton: Weber Top-9 Forward

To Buffalo: Petry Oiler's 2014 First Round Pick

A final note: the deal would be done after the season, so that Edmonton's pick would be most likely to retain its value.

Thoughts?

If we can get Weber with Eberle, Petry and our 1st rounder, it is a no brainer and I don't think MacT will hesitate.

Jeff Petry and our 1st rounder (will be top 5, probably top 3) is more than sufficient for Ehrhoff. Buffalo will be crazy to decline that trade.

But I doubt Nashville would trade Weber for Ehrhoff and Eberle. There will be many teams willing to pay more for him.

If I am Polie, I will rather take Eberle, Petry and the Oilers 1st rounder than Ehrhoff and Eberle. Then try to get Ehrhoff with Petry and their 1st rounder (probably around 10th overall). But even with this scenario, the Nashville is still losing the trade.

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#153 pkam
January 09 2014, 03:49PM
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Eberle4MVP wrote:

You make retarded trade proposals, but how the hell is this getting so many trashes? Shea Webber for Yakupov and a 1st round draft pick in 18months from now?.... YES PLEASE!!!

jesus, id throw in this years first round pick (likely first overall), or Klefbom or whoever the hell Nashville wanted!

So what are readers supposed to do? Pop up his retarded comment?

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#154 Jesse
January 09 2014, 04:48PM
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Lets see a soft 1 way player that can't win faceoffs. Has not played in any meaningful games ever. Scores soft points.

3rd round player perhaps

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#155 zunit35
January 10 2014, 03:10AM
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Bucknuck wrote:

Boy, Oilersnation has been a cesspit of negativity lately. Wow.

I see the Maple Leafs as a good match. They are not performing as well as some people expected them to, so there could be an appetite to move a player.

I think I would be OK with Clarkson and Reimer for Gagner and Dubnyk, providing Clarkson would waive his NTC. He's having a terrible season, but I think it's an aberration.

Omg.you really think they would make that trade.please man.clacksond been a trainwreck yes but nonis isnt going to admit his 35 mil mistake unless its a blockbuster.and dubnyk.i wont be shocked if he gets bbought out hes been so bad

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#156 Athabascajim
January 10 2014, 10:38AM
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armchair GMing wrote:

I know we are all tired of Weber trade offers on ON, but I have a deal that I think makes sense for all involved. Here's my thought process:

Oilers desperately need a #1D (Weber), but no way Nashville gives him up without getting someone who can go some way to replacing Weber on D. Since the Oil do not have anyone like that, we go for a three-way trade and get Buffalo to send Erhoff (I know he has a NTC but if I was him I would flee Buffalo right now). To pry Erhoff from Buffalo we send over Petry (to go some way in replacing Erhoff) plus our first in this year's draft. Seems to me like an overpayment, so we also ask to get, say, a top 9F (M. Foligno?) from Buffalo as well. Then we send Eberle to Nashville to get Weber, and Nashville gets the first line sniper they badly need. Also noteworthy: some buzz was made at the start of the season when Jones was forced to his off-side to play with Weber, and Erhoff allows Jones to go back to his natural side.

To recap:

To Nashville: Eberle Ehroff

To Edmonton: Weber Top-9 Forward

To Buffalo: Petry Oiler's 2014 First Round Pick

A final note: the deal would be done after the season, so that Edmonton's pick would be most likely to retain its value.

Thoughts?

I'm surprised Nashville hasn't made this deal already! Are you serious? Maybe turn off your computer and come out of your mothers basement for some fresh air. You are delusional.

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#157 Athabascajim
January 10 2014, 11:04AM
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gongshow wrote:

A few random thoughts on moving Gagner...

1) Despite his warts as a center, Gagner is an NHLer. Maybe not a great center, but he has skills and apparently MacT thinks he's got the heart.

2) Who fills the hole down the middle if you move him. With Gags gone, you'd be looking at RNH/Gordon/Arcobello/Lander.

3) Are we at the point that we don't care how badly we get beat this season? I guess MacT hasn't had the pleasure himself of seeing the Oilers ball drop last (first overall) at the draft lottery. It's only so ofter that you get to experience moments like that.

4) After sending Horcoff away, does it make sense to just ship off another center without a backup plan?

5) As an afterthought, what would things look like right now if they had moved Gags and kept Horc instead?

1. Toby Peterson had heart too. 2. There is currently a hole in the middle of the Oilers 2nd l. A real donut line. Anyone would be better. Besides, Arcobello earned it with his play. 3. Why wouldn't we want Ekblad? We are almost there anyway. 4. Yes 5. Horcoff would be giving us the same result only costing us more. Check his stats on a better Dallas team. Trading Gagner isn't going to hurt this team one bit and there is a 1% chance MacT might actually get something useful for him.

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