DIRTY 30

Lowetide
February 17 2014 04:56PM

moroz mcritchie

Mitchell Moroz scored the 30th goal of his season today. And then, he scored 31. That's a solid total for the physical winger, a number many didn't think he'd reach in a single season. I'm sure Moroz is feeling good about himself—and he should—because 30 goals in a season among big tough wingers is a pretty rare thing. Or is it?

30-GOALS AT 19

How often do big forwards with a physical edge score 30 goals as 19-year olds? Here's what I did: took all of the Oiler-drafted CHL forwards since 2000 into a group, and the plucked out those who scored 30 in a year with 100 pims. How many did it in those years? Here we go:

  1. Dan Baum, 19, 2002-23 72GP, 32-41-73 218pims
  2. JF Jacques, 19, 2004-05 69GP, 36-42-78 56pims
  3. Mitchell Moroz, 19, 2013-14 57GP, 31-27-58 133pims

I included Jacques because he had over 100pims earlier in the junior career, but not at 19. He fits the description, so it would be silly to exclude him. A lot of good players scored 30 (Stoll, Brodziak, Pouliot) and a lot of these guys had lots of pims (Stortini) but among Oiler CHL picks since 2000 this is it.

Jacques made the NHL but couldn't score at all, Baum lost his career to injury.

That's a pretty rare feat as Oiler prospects go, 30 goals and 100 pims in season. I'm thrilled for the young man, it can't be easy being an Oil King and an Oiler prospect in this city. Allow me to congratulate Mitchell Moroz for a splendid accomplishment. 30 goals. One season. Something to be proud of forever.

C2a6955161684b5e3189319acfa5ebe4
Lowetide has been one of the Oilogosphere's shining lights for over a century. You can check him out here at OilersNation and at lowetide.ca. He is also the host of Lowdown with Lowetide weekday mornings 10-noon on Team 1260.
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#51 THRNHJE
February 18 2014, 07:25AM
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On draft day I was super excited, chatting my colleagues ear off about the draft, expecting that we would probably get Monahan because in my opinion he was probably going to be both bpa and a role we needed, and then maybe Nurse otherwise. When Nichuskin was still there, I was giddy about the fact that we were getting our power forward. When they picked Nurse I was yelling at MacT about this awful choice. Look at Benn Seguin Nichuskin. So beastly. Imagine Hall and Nichuskin just dominating with RNH setting them up all day.

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#52 gcw_rocks
February 18 2014, 07:37AM
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Chainsawz wrote:

Yeah, I don't think so.

BPA in the first round. No matter if the Oilers drafted Finn or not, they are still taking Nurse. And if that's not the case, it's a terrible drafting strategy.

I think they picked Nurse for need, not because he was BPA. He was the defender that MacT like the best and he was desperate for a defender.

But frankly, Nurse, Ristolainen, and Nichushkin were so close, the Oilers could have picked any of them and no one would blink.

Horvat, though, would have been a pick for need over BPA.

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#53 Gofucoffee
February 18 2014, 07:54AM
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Sooo, thirty goals in the dub should turn out to be 15 on the farm and what 5 a season if he pans out in the show? Hope like hell he's got a mean streak in his pro career or it's another JFJ in the making. Guess only time will tell, great more waiting.

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#54 Smokey
February 18 2014, 09:15AM
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Realistic expections are Moroz should get a couple cups of coffee and his ceiling is a fourth liner. Would be happy if he could carve outta a career as a Chris Neil type player.

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#55 Mark Loewen
February 18 2014, 10:00AM
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THRNHJE wrote:

On draft day I was super excited, chatting my colleagues ear off about the draft, expecting that we would probably get Monahan because in my opinion he was probably going to be both bpa and a role we needed, and then maybe Nurse otherwise. When Nichuskin was still there, I was giddy about the fact that we were getting our power forward. When they picked Nurse I was yelling at MacT about this awful choice. Look at Benn Seguin Nichuskin. So beastly. Imagine Hall and Nichuskin just dominating with RNH setting them up all day.

I think choosing a Russian is risky and is going to become more and more risky as the KHL improves. I think the Oil remain concerned over the possibility Yakupov bolts. Can you imagine 2 years in a row drafting russians in the 1st round with the very real possibility of losing them both? Too risky.

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#56 pkam
February 18 2014, 10:01AM
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DSF wrote:

A couple of things to ponder.

Moroz is a LW which means he is behind Hall and Perron and perhaps Hendricks.

Spending the 32 overall pick on a guy who might top out as a 3rd line player is questionable and a clear sign of drafting for need rather than taking the best player available.

Here's a post from draft day:

" I had a feeling that a defense prospect would slip to the 2nd round. The guy to pick with the 32nd pick is Matt Finn. The Blue Jackets are likely going to chose a forward I’d assume one of the Swede’s. So here’s my plea to Stu, Steve, KLowe and the boys. Don’t over think the pick, go to the podium and say Matt Finn.

The prospect base that we have doesn’t really have this type of player. In all honesty he’s probably the closest prospect to Ryan Murray in the draft, probably better offensively but not as good a skater. Here’s how he is ranked. 9 – Craig Button 14 – Redline Report 16 – Hockey Prospectus (Corey Pronman) 16 – NHL Central Scouting 18 – ISS 20 – McKeen’s Hockey 21 – Bob MacKenzie"

http://www.oilogosphere.com/blog/the-oilers-are-proud-to-select-matt-finn/

A couple of other interesting tidbits:

Finn had mono in the season before his draft year and then responded spectacularily well the following season.

And here are the his stats this season compared with another Guelph Storm alumnus...Drew Doughty.

Doughty: 58GP 13G 37A 50P -1

Finn: 54 GP 14G 39A 53P +50

Now, Doughty posted those number as an 18 year old but remember Finn lost almost a season to mono.

Considering his draft ranking and his offensive explosion this season, I would think the Leafs absolutely owned that draft by picking Morgan Rielly and Matt Finn.

Drafting for need instead of BPA with 2nd or later round picks is a bad idea?

Why compare Finn to Doughty when you can compare him to our Martin Gernat?

Drafted in 5th round in 2011, 6'3 and 197 lbs, 55 pts in 60 games and +41 as an OilKings in 2011-12.

If we can pick Martin Gernat with a 5th round pick, why do we have to spend a 2nd round pick on Matt Finn?

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#57 Rod from Viking
February 18 2014, 10:20AM
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pkam wrote:

Drafting for need instead of BPA with 2nd or later round picks is a bad idea?

Why compare Finn to Doughty when you can compare him to our Martin Gernat?

Drafted in 5th round in 2011, 6'3 and 197 lbs, 55 pts in 60 games and +41 as an OilKings in 2011-12.

If we can pick Martin Gernat with a 5th round pick, why do we have to spend a 2nd round pick on Matt Finn?

Bang on, he also was a very key part of the Oil Kings. I am sure DSF's reply will be classic(lol)

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#58 DSF
February 18 2014, 10:21AM
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pkam wrote:

Drafting for need instead of BPA with 2nd or later round picks is a bad idea?

Why compare Finn to Doughty when you can compare him to our Martin Gernat?

Drafted in 5th round in 2011, 6'3 and 197 lbs, 55 pts in 60 games and +41 as an OilKings in 2011-12.

If we can pick Martin Gernat with a 5th round pick, why do we have to spend a 2nd round pick on Matt Finn?

Finn was the BPA AND filled a need.

Here’s how he was ranked.

9 – Craig Button

14 – Redline Report

16 – Hockey Prospectus (Corey Pronman)

16 – NHL Central Scouting

18 – ISS 20 – McKeen’s Hockey

21 – Bob MacKenzie

Gernat appears to have been a very good pick but he has nothing to do with who the Oilers should have picked in 2012 since he was drafted in 2011.

If the Oilers had thought so highly of Gernat you would think they would have taken him before the 5th round.

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#59 Manfly
February 18 2014, 10:33AM
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THRNHJE wrote:

On draft day I was super excited, chatting my colleagues ear off about the draft, expecting that we would probably get Monahan because in my opinion he was probably going to be both bpa and a role we needed, and then maybe Nurse otherwise. When Nichuskin was still there, I was giddy about the fact that we were getting our power forward. When they picked Nurse I was yelling at MacT about this awful choice. Look at Benn Seguin Nichuskin. So beastly. Imagine Hall and Nichuskin just dominating with RNH setting them up all day.

here's the thing with the Nurse/Nichushkin pick. the Oilers definitely needed both players, but could only take one so they took him. a case could be made that either player was the next BPA. i as well was hoping that the Oilers would take Nichushkin, that way if we made a move on Hemsky, Nichuskin would be there to take his place.

he's also the big, talented forward with size the Oilers cry that they can't seem to find, but they passed on him. i was mildly surprised that they did, however, i was equally impressed with Nurse during the pre season. he might have a longer learning curve being a d-man than Nichuskin being a forward, but we did get the apparent 2nd best d-man in the draft, and this kid is immensely talented. there is a chance he could be playing full time for the Oilers next year and this is they type of d-man who may have a chance to be a top pairing d-man in the NHL, another type of player the Oilers cry that they can't seem to find.

to me they had a choice of either/or and made it and we just have to live with it and see what we have in the near future with Nurse.

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#60 Rod from Viking
February 18 2014, 10:38AM
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DSF wrote:

Finn was the BPA AND filled a need.

Here’s how he was ranked.

9 – Craig Button

14 – Redline Report

16 – Hockey Prospectus (Corey Pronman)

16 – NHL Central Scouting

18 – ISS 20 – McKeen’s Hockey

21 – Bob MacKenzie

Gernat appears to have been a very good pick but he has nothing to do with who the Oilers should have picked in 2012 since he was drafted in 2011.

If the Oilers had thought so highly of Gernat you would think they would have taken him before the 5th round.

So why didn't any of the teams picking from 9-30 pick Finn ahead of the Oiler's? Are you saying it was the mono?

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#61 Manfly
February 18 2014, 10:40AM
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DSF wrote:

Finn was the BPA AND filled a need.

Here’s how he was ranked.

9 – Craig Button

14 – Redline Report

16 – Hockey Prospectus (Corey Pronman)

16 – NHL Central Scouting

18 – ISS 20 – McKeen’s Hockey

21 – Bob MacKenzie

Gernat appears to have been a very good pick but he has nothing to do with who the Oilers should have picked in 2012 since he was drafted in 2011.

If the Oilers had thought so highly of Gernat you would think they would have taken him before the 5th round.

like Rod said, several teams passed on Finn, including the Rangers who took the less than spectacular d-man Brady Skjei, Florida who took Mike Matheson, Isles Ville Pokka and St Louis Jordan Schmaltz. correct me if i am wrong, but wasn't Finn at the time judged to be somewhat unspectacular at one particular thing in his game and therefore resulted in his drop to the 2nd round? he might have improved immensely since then but at the time likely wasn't as highly regarded as he could be today? maybe the Oilers at that time didn't want to add more of the same to what they already had?

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#62 pkam
February 18 2014, 10:44AM
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Manfly wrote:

here's the thing with the Nurse/Nichushkin pick. the Oilers definitely needed both players, but could only take one so they took him. a case could be made that either player was the next BPA. i as well was hoping that the Oilers would take Nichushkin, that way if we made a move on Hemsky, Nichuskin would be there to take his place.

he's also the big, talented forward with size the Oilers cry that they can't seem to find, but they passed on him. i was mildly surprised that they did, however, i was equally impressed with Nurse during the pre season. he might have a longer learning curve being a d-man than Nichuskin being a forward, but we did get the apparent 2nd best d-man in the draft, and this kid is immensely talented. there is a chance he could be playing full time for the Oilers next year and this is they type of d-man who may have a chance to be a top pairing d-man in the NHL, another type of player the Oilers cry that they can't seem to find.

to me they had a choice of either/or and made it and we just have to live with it and see what we have in the near future with Nurse.

I believe picking Nurse over Nichushkin has something to do with the player's attitude. Remember Nichushkin said he wouldn't play in the AHL, either KHL or NHL? That is a red flag I think. Wonder why so many teams pass on him?

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#63 pkam
February 18 2014, 10:56AM
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DSF wrote:

Finn was the BPA AND filled a need.

Here’s how he was ranked.

9 – Craig Button

14 – Redline Report

16 – Hockey Prospectus (Corey Pronman)

16 – NHL Central Scouting

18 – ISS 20 – McKeen’s Hockey

21 – Bob MacKenzie

Gernat appears to have been a very good pick but he has nothing to do with who the Oilers should have picked in 2012 since he was drafted in 2011.

If the Oilers had thought so highly of Gernat you would think they would have taken him before the 5th round.

If those scouting reports mean something, than Finn should go 9th overall based on Button's report and 22 teams were worse than the Oilers. Even using Mackenzie's scouting report, 9 teams were missing the boat. So what is the point of quoting those scouting reports?

Comparing Moroz to Finn is like comparing apple to orange. One is a power forward prospect, one is an average size defense prospect. Perhaps you can tell us which power forward in that draft after Moroz has similar size and grit and better stats.

Detroit drafted Datsyuk 6th rounder and Zetterberg 7th round. Why didn't they draft them in earlier rounds, or does it matter?

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#64 DSF
February 18 2014, 11:03AM
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Rod from Viking wrote:

So why didn't any of the teams picking from 9-30 pick Finn ahead of the Oiler's? Are you saying it was the mono?

Impossible to know what other teams were thinking.

I do think the Moroz pick is looking better than on draft day but I'm still skeptical about picking a player than high in the draft if his upside is a 3rd line winger.

If he does become the next Lucic, no problem.

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#65 Bucknuck
February 18 2014, 11:07AM
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Glad to see Moroz is doing well. I never minded the pick, since he was projected to go second round anyway. It wasn't completely off the board like Hesketh and Abney.

I can be happy seeing an Oil prospect doing well without pooping all over it with "shoulda beens". If he turns out maybe other team's fans can point to him as someone they should have picked instead of their 1st round duds.

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#66 Will
February 18 2014, 12:00PM
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Time will tell if the pick works out or not. It would be great if the Oilers pulled an absolute gem out of later rounds like Benn at 44th overall. However picks like that are never projected to work out like that otherwise everyone would take them first round.

I think even if it's just by chance the Oilers will get their late round super star, or at least a late round complementary player. What I like about Moroz is that if he does make it up to the show, chances are he will have some skill to play with. That could really improve his game; whereas JF Jaques did not have the level of skill around him that the current group enjoys.

As for everyone saying we should draft Nichuskin, there's just no way that should have ever happened. He play RW, so he would have been behind Ebs, Yak, and even Hammer on the depth chart. Combine that with his statement he would bolt back to the KHL if he didn't get prime NHL ice time and that is just way too much risk. Not to mention he did not get off to a good start. You think Eakins would have kept him on the top line with the way he began playing. Look at how Yak was handled this year. That would have been an automatic recipe for Nichuskin breaking contract and leaving for Russia. When Nurse turns into a franchise top 2 defender, I don't think anyone will be pining for Nichuskin.

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#67 Manfly
February 18 2014, 12:02PM
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@Buck....kind of the point isn't it? with the Jets taking less offensively gifted Lukas Sutter at #39, if we hadn't taken Moroz at #32, you think the Jets would have passed on him? especially if he was apparently projected to go somewhere in the mid 2nd round? so i really don't see the big deal of Moroz getting picked 7 spots higher than he likely would have gone. and there is no guarantee Matt Finn is going to be anything special in the NHL, if he even makes it.

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#68 Bucknuck
February 18 2014, 12:06PM
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Manfly wrote:

@Buck....kind of the point isn't it? with the Jets taking less offensively gifted Lukas Sutter at #39, if we hadn't taken Moroz at #32, you think the Jets would have passed on him? especially if he was apparently projected to go somewhere in the mid 2nd round? so i really don't see the big deal of Moroz getting picked 7 spots higher than he likely would have gone. and there is no guarantee Matt Finn is going to be anything special in the NHL, if he even makes it.

Exactly right. He wasn't going to be around for the third round and the Oilers wanted him... so they took him. Time will tell if they made the right choice, but I don't think it was crazy, since they got the guy they wanted when they could get him.

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#69 rickithebear
February 18 2014, 12:36PM
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Moroz is on pace for 38G and 160 PIM

Since the 05-06 lockout. CHL players with 35G and greater than 100 PIM

11-12 B. Ross

10-11 G. Wilson, B. Gallagher

9-10 N. Kadri, G. dumont

8-9 M. Martin, D. bowman

7-8 L. Caputi, M. Belesky

6-7 T. Sestito, C. Stewart, S. Downie, C. Clutterbuck

5-6 E. Hunter, Bolland, B. pouliot,

Dumont and Caputi had terrible foot speed.

You do not cluster in groups by chance. it hints at what mmay be!

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#70 OilFanInVan
February 18 2014, 01:22PM
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Rod from Viking wrote:

13 out of 22 posts involve DSF, Wayne must really need some coin out of CWD. I guess Lowetide would only have had 9 comments without him. "Good Grief"

You nailed it!

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#71 TigerUnderGlass
February 18 2014, 01:46PM
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Does anyone have a link with this supposed statement by Nichushkin that he would bolt if he didn't make the NHL?

I seem to recall him making a statement before the draft reflecting the exact opposite, that he was coming over to N. America right now, regardless of whether he makes his team, because his dream was to make it to the NHL and he wanted to play here to learn the NA game.

My memory could be wrong of course, but there was a definite buzz around him right before the draft that had him potentially trending upwards as a pick.

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#72 pkam
February 18 2014, 02:24PM
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TigerUnderGlass wrote:

Does anyone have a link with this supposed statement by Nichushkin that he would bolt if he didn't make the NHL?

I seem to recall him making a statement before the draft reflecting the exact opposite, that he was coming over to N. America right now, regardless of whether he makes his team, because his dream was to make it to the NHL and he wanted to play here to learn the NA game.

My memory could be wrong of course, but there was a definite buzz around him right before the draft that had him potentially trending upwards as a pick.

If I remember correctly, he had 2 years left in a KHL contract when he was drafted. When he was interviewed, he explained that the contract had an out clause if he made the NHL and only the NHL. So he was bound to play in KHL or NHL but not another league.

He did say his goal was to play in NHL and he would try to make the team. But if he didn't make it, he had to go back to the KHL to finish his contract. I can't remember anything about his plan after he finishes his KHL contract if he failed to make the NHL this year.

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#73 Romanus
February 18 2014, 02:58PM
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Chainsawz wrote:

An OHL beast. Whoop-de-doo.

Schemp was a beast in the ohl.....

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#74 Tikkanese
February 18 2014, 03:16PM
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derrickhands wrote:

Moroz is not the 2nd coming of Lucic. Same size and skill set, but Moroz skates better and doesn't take the odd night off like Lucic will.

So you're saying Moroz is better than Lucic? Right...

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#75 Rod from Viking
February 18 2014, 05:15PM
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@DSF

Your statement about Moroz would be playing behind Hall, Perron and Hendricks is true right now but don't you think it will be at least two more years after this one until he would be ready for the jump and Hendricks would be at the end of his contract?

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#76 Manfly
February 18 2014, 05:17PM
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Tikkanese wrote:

So you're saying Moroz is better than Lucic? Right...

who knows? Lucic was taken at #50 in the 2nd round and Moroz at #32 in the 2nd. Lucic had one good junior year of 30 goals and 38 assists and 147 PM before he went straight to the NHL. as of this post, Moroz has 31 goals and 27 assists and 133 PM so far this year. i know it goes against the arguement against Moroz's potential with the Oilers down the road, but it's not absolutely impossible is it that we could have a clone of Lucic down the road?

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#77 DSF
February 18 2014, 06:02PM
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Rod from Viking wrote:

Your statement about Moroz would be playing behind Hall, Perron and Hendricks is true right now but don't you think it will be at least two more years after this one until he would be ready for the jump and Hendricks would be at the end of his contract?

That's true.

All depends on how Moroz develops.

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#78 michael
February 18 2014, 08:01PM
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Rod from Viking wrote:

Your statement about Moroz would be playing behind Hall, Perron and Hendricks is true right now but don't you think it will be at least two more years after this one until he would be ready for the jump and Hendricks would be at the end of his contract?

Absolutely deadon. I see Moroz going pro next year with OKC. They'll have a lot of room to sign him. And others. I think that the timeline you propose is reasonable with only one flaw. Is MH going to be here more than one season. He'll be in the 2cd year of his contract next season and I can see him as a 4th guy with Boyd Gordon. I see Lander and Pittlick graduation to the Oilers next season. I could see Ryan Smyth being resigned for a year at 1.25. Your 4th line may look like BG,MH and RS.

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#79 Oilerfan
February 18 2014, 09:42PM
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sizedoesmatter wrote:

No one in the comments mentioned Mitch Moroz as the second coming of Lucic. all I read is guarded optimism.second round picks rarely make the NHL .but there Is nothing wrong with cheering on a prospect.

Shoulda stuck around. It didn't take much longer.

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#80 Oilerfan
February 18 2014, 09:45PM
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Manfly wrote:

who knows? Lucic was taken at #50 in the 2nd round and Moroz at #32 in the 2nd. Lucic had one good junior year of 30 goals and 38 assists and 147 PM before he went straight to the NHL. as of this post, Moroz has 31 goals and 27 assists and 133 PM so far this year. i know it goes against the arguement against Moroz's potential with the Oilers down the road, but it's not absolutely impossible is it that we could have a clone of Lucic down the road?

See what I mean?

D. Loozhuhnuhl.

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#81 TigerUnderGlass
February 19 2014, 10:48AM
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pkam wrote:

If I remember correctly, he had 2 years left in a KHL contract when he was drafted. When he was interviewed, he explained that the contract had an out clause if he made the NHL and only the NHL. So he was bound to play in KHL or NHL but not another league.

He did say his goal was to play in NHL and he would try to make the team. But if he didn't make it, he had to go back to the KHL to finish his contract. I can't remember anything about his plan after he finishes his KHL contract if he failed to make the NHL this year.

Either way, there is a night and day difference between, "If I don't make it I'm bolting," and, "I'm contractually obligated to play in the KHL if I'm not playing in the NHL." Why are people talking about this as if it matters or somehow reflects on his attitude?

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#82 TigerUnderGlass
February 19 2014, 10:52AM
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I'm stunned people are still trying to make the Lucic comparison.

When Lucic was the age Moroz is right now he was already playing in the NHL, not beating up on kids in Junior.

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#83 Mike Modano's Dog
February 20 2014, 08:57PM
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I was one of those people who was initially upset that we had 'wasted the pick' on someone I had never heard of before. I go by the rankings generally. The one caveat to that is that even Detroit's GM who made the Zetterberg pick says if he knew he was going to be that good he would have picked him in the first round!

From all accounts the merit of the pick would hinge on whether he would develop into a solid and skilled power forward. They admitted they thought he would once he was given the ice time he would be getting, but up to that point was denied by their junior team. They knew him inside and out, in a way other teams couldn't. They knew his character, work ethic, and obviously saw something they really liked.

For a guy who has frequently bashed the Oilers' picks I have to admit they had the foresight to correctly predict this. They beat the other teams to him that were rumoured to be taking him in the 2nd round. If they believe he will, or could be that good, then it doesn't matter where they picked him if they wanted him most. His player type, I believe, is what the Oilers need most, if he's good enough to play on any line.

He is doing better than I dared to dream he would this year, and progressing VERY NICELY, indeed!

I don't get caught up in the first second third or fourth line predictions. I remember clearly a highly respected analyst for the Oilers themselves saying that Jarrett Stoll's ceiling was as a fourth liner, if he ever did play in the NHL. Some who enjoyed the Oilers heyday may remember before the Oilers were 'The Oilers'. Mark Messier was said to 'have to use his elbows' if he ever were to even have a career in the NHL. What did he end up being, second all-time in NHL scoring when he retired? The only captain of two different Stanley Cup winning teams.

I think at this stage of his career it is silly to lock him into comparisons with any one or two players, be it JF Jaques or Milan Lucic. He will write his own biography by the end of his career, and he could be the best of the bunch or never play at all.

The thing I see is the best players are rarely predicted to be as good as they become when they are only prospects. It is almost impossible to predict how they will play against men, the best in the world - unless you are a 66 or 87, or 88.

All I know is I'm excited by what I see; from where I sit the sky is the limit with him. Nobody combines his toughness with his level of skill as an Oilers prospect for as long as I can remember. And as an Oilers fan that is the best news I have heard in a while!

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