Out of Time

Jonathan Willis
February 04 2014 10:19AM

The NHL gives every team a finite amount of time to determine whether its draft picks are NHL-ready or not – as a rule, three years of professional hockey for skaters and four for goaltenders. After that, those players become waiver-eligible and any team in the league can take them.

For the Edmonton Oilers, that means decisions need to be made on a number of significant minor-league prospects, or else there is a risk of losing them for nothing.

The List

As I read the CBA, the following group of players are to be waiver-eligible next season for the first time:

  • Mark Arcobello
  • Curtis Hamilton
  • Roman Horak
  • Anton Lander
  • Andrew Miller
  • Tyler Pitlick

Taylor Fedun would also normally be eligible, but it seems that NHL preseason games don’t count as professional games for the purposes of waiver exemption, and he was injured before playing a regular season or playoff game in 2011-12. By that interpretation, he has another year of exemption from waivers before the Oilers have to worry about someone grabbing him.

What It Means

For some of these guys, this doesn’t really mean a lot. Curtis Hamilton has finally started turning a corner, but he’s fought injuries again too and has an unimpressive track record; it’s probable the Oilers can waive him without worrying about losing him. Andrew Miller is in a similar situation; he hasn’t made the case that the Oilers need to promote him and it’s likely other teams will see things the same way. Roman Horak’s credentials are a little more impressive, but not enough to worry about; every team tries to sneak guys like Horak through waivers. The Oilers have the option of parting with all of these guys as restricted free agents; I expect they’ll be re-signed but it isn’t guaranteed.

Mark Arcobello is a bit of a concern, but potentially not for the Oilers. He will hit Group Six unrestricted free agency this summer, so it’s entirely possible he won’t be returning to Edmonton.

There are two guys worth worrying about here: Anton Lander and Tyler Pitlick.

Lander is a guy I have talked about at some length recently. At the AHL level he’s a high-end two-way centre; he’s the Barons best penalty killer, plays on the power play and centres a power-vs.-power line. He’s responsible in his own end, a character player and this year he’s emerged as a point-per-game weapon in the minors – despite getting very little help since the departure of Linus Omark.

Lander’s a controversial player because that offence hasn’t been evident in the NHL, but the vast majority of his NHL experience has come on either a terrible fourth line (no pivot on the team has been able to make that line effective) or in 2011-12 when Lander was clearly not ready for the majors. If it were up to me, Lander would see some NHL time with real players after the trade deadline.

Pitlick is a few months younger than Lander, and a much less impressive player in the minors. What he does have is a nice blend of skills. He has reasonable size (listed at 6’2”, 196 pounds), exceptional speed, a heavy shot and a willingness to finish his checks. He’s a guy whose natural talents might move him to the NHL ahead of some more complete players because he has the speed to keep up while those other guys don’t (Martin Marincin, who has great talent but had rough edges in the AHL, is a good example of this). Like Lander, he’s a good option for trial minutes after the deadline.

Why It Matters

There are a lot of reasons I’m pushing for cameos for both Lander and Pitlick, but the biggest two have to do with my view of NHL fourth lines and the players who inhabit them.

For one thing, fourth lines should be cheap. This is one of the few areas where a team can save itself some money to use elsewhere, so ideally at least two of the three guys on the fourth line should be carrying six-figure cap hits (I have some time for the 10th forward, the guy who moves up in event of injury, being paid at a premium).

Currently, the Oilers’ fourth line of Luke Gazdic, Ryan Smyth and Ryan Jones comes at a cap hit of just under $4.4 million. Assuming modest raises across the board for Pitlick, Lander and Gazdic, that number could be $2.5 million next season; that’s almost $2.0 million the Oilers can spend somewhere else. Edmonton could probably save even more money if they offered one-way deals to Lander and Pitlick; say matching two-year, $650,000 contracts, which would trim another $500,000 off the books.

The other big point is that the talent gap between ‘first-line AHL player’ and ‘fourth-line NHL player’ is awfully small, and because of that aging curves matter a lot. Ben Eager very quickly went from ‘solid fourth-line player’ to ‘AHL depth option’ and it’s something that happens to a lot of fringe NHL’ers as they get into their late 20’s and beyond.

A team that plans on guys like Lander and Pitlick making the jump isn’t getting Lander and Pitlick as they are now; it’s getting those guys plus whatever incremental improvements they make over the summer and coming into next season. A team signing Ryan Jones isn’t getting him as he is now; it’s getting him minus whatever incremental losses his game suffers over the summer as he turns 30. And given that in the AHL there was basically no gap between Jones and Pitlick, that matters a lot.

It’s not about the second round picks spent adding these players, and it’s not about the time spent on their development. It’s about adding cheap help on the upswing rather than expensive help on the decline. The Oilers aren’t going to find better end-of-roster options for less money than Lander and Pitick, so they may as well make use of them.

Recently by Jonathan Willis

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Jonathan Willis is a freelance writer. He currently works for Oilers Nation, Sportsnet, the Edmonton Journal and Bleacher Report. He's co-written three books and worked for myriad websites, including Grantland, ESPN, The Score, and Hockey Prospectus. He was previously the founder and managing editor of Copper & Blue.
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#51 DisappointedFan
February 04 2014, 02:22PM
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Disappointed Italian Oiler Fan wrote:

What do you guys think about trying to bring in Nino Niederreiter from Minnesota? He is listet at 6'2" with 209 lbs. He plays a very gritty game and this year he also puts up some points (26 points in 57 games). He is just 21, which is a little bit of a problem because the oilers would need veteran presence, but I think he has a very big upside!

I think I'd be more concerned with him putting up another 55GP with 1 goal...if a first overall like Yakupov can struggle here, you certainly don't want to bring in a guy that can REALLY struggle here.

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#52 Old Retired Guy (A.K.A. Die-Nasty)
February 04 2014, 02:32PM
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Kodiak wrote:

And ignoring the $$$ the 4th line eats up is also a big mistake. I'd rather save $2m on our 4th line and use that to overpay a Callahan type player that can have a bigger impact.

Callahan type....yes. Callahan no. Callahan is a clear upgrade on Gagner, but is still a small injury prone player, and even if he was a fit, anything over $5 million is an overpay. IMO.

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#53 camdog
February 04 2014, 05:01PM
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The reality is that the Oilers power play for the first time in many, many years has lost the team momentum. Whether from weak shorthanded goals or very poor performances that have changed the tide of a game.

The reality is also that on 4 on 4 they are exceptionally better than last year. Last season they were last in 4 on 4 goals for, this season they are first.

One can argue whether it's coaching that has lead to the changes, one can also argue that other teams have scouted us and adapted. No matter how we and try and spin it we suck.

On a side note as bad as Whitney was last season, other teams would try and take his shot away. I don't know many teams that can have a good powerplay without having a shot from the point. This is more on the GM than the coach as far as I am concerned.

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#54 Racki
February 04 2014, 12:19PM
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Not so sure on Lander at all, but Pitlick showed he has the skill set required for a bottom six player up until getting hurt. It was a big disappointment because he fit in so well. I look forward to seeing him in the bottom six some more, hopefully sooner than later. He plays with a lot of energy and we know that he can bring the odd offence (the main reason he was drafted) even if it isn't at the level we hoped.

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#55 Cain
February 04 2014, 12:57PM
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Serious Gord wrote:

Re-signing Smyth would be grounds for dismissal of MacT and Lowe all on its own.

Agreed.

I didn't think he should have gotten as many games this year as he has already.

What does he give you that is so much better than giving those minutes to somebody else doesn't?

Veteran leadership? Please...The Oilers are a perennial basement dweller. Where exactly is Smyth leading them to? He got benched for one game last year and displayed his "veteran leadership" by refusing to speak to the media about it. Don't try to sell that as leadership...if it were anybody else, the media would have been all over it,but it got pushed to the side because it was "good old Smitty".

Good riddance, old Smitty.

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#56 loweblows
February 04 2014, 01:15PM
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@Oiler Al

I would argue that they are playing the same way after 58 games. They are playing worse. Something is terribly wrong with the coaching.

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#57 Walter Sobchak
February 05 2014, 05:17AM
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Zarny wrote:

Actually last year the Oilers PP had Gagner healthy and playing well all 48 games.

This year Gags had his jaw rearranged and has played half the year hurt.

The reality is that after 48 games this year (since that is all Krueger coached) the difference between last year's PP and this year's PP amounted to 4 goals.

That's it...4 goals over 48 games. That was the difference between last year's PP and this year's PP.

Coaching my a$$.

You forgot to mention the record breaking 10 short handed goals against & Gagner played the same easier minutes on the PP last year the same as this year.

Your top players are on the PP so the excuse that defense is worse doesn't wash here.

There are fundament changes to the PP that both Renney and Krueger used but Eakins & Mactavish completely went away from.

Last year Yakupov played R half wall, this year he floats in no mans land between the point and the high slot, completely ineffective, not to mention you have a second year player who's been on the wrong side of two on ones.

Last year, Hall played down low, again on the R half wall or down low by the net, this year RNH occupies that spot.

This is the essence of coaching, the players are told were to go, were to set up, the coaching staff has yet to change the PP which leads me to believe they like the overall PP.

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#58 Lowe Expectations
February 04 2014, 11:01AM
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I agree that Lander should be given a real opportunity to play. Having said that though it is a two way street. Other teams also have players in their systems that are waiver eligible. I've been saying for a while the Oilers pro scouting is pathetic. There are more than likely some diamonds in the rough out there.

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#59 season not played
February 04 2014, 11:50AM
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Whatever happens in this situation, rest assured the Oilers "brass" will make the wrong decision.

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#60 vetinari
February 04 2014, 11:51AM
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oh yeah wrote:

I've checked the site and can't find the instructions for editing my own post. You clearly have found it. Can you point me in the right direction? Thank you.

If you are a regular member, I know that beside the Props button on every post (top right hand side), there are two small radio buttons -- "reply" or "edit".... I hit "reply" beside your post to give you a response. If you instead hit "edit", you can get a cursor in the comment box and edit your comments. If you are not a regular member (i.e. someone with a regular name and logs in to post), you may not get that option (an unregistered user may edit another's posts). Hope that helps.

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#61 Dougy weight
February 04 2014, 11:52AM
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Keep em, let em go, who cares. What really matters is the players who play 15-25 min a night. 5 min players shouldn't be discussed until something is done with the young core players work ethic and commitment to the defensive side of the puck. Lock them in a room and make them watch videos of Datskuk. Trade eberle and a pick for a top 2 dman such as a yandle, erhoff or giardi. Also for those thinking we will get something for gagner, sorry but it won't happen. Terrible contract for an ahl type player. If anything hopefully we can pull off a trade like what we did for horcoff and ditch the contract

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#62 Fresh Mess
February 04 2014, 12:10PM
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Good entry. I'm not trolling when I say I honestly don't feel any of those players would be much of a loss if they were claimed by other teams.

Lander would be worth re signing to a two way deal because the farm needs scoring and leadership. I really feel IF Lander ever becomes an NHL regular, it will be by going the Shaun Van Allen route: 6 years in the minors eventually becoming an elite AHL scorer, and then transitioning to a savvy defensive bottom six forward at the NHL level.

Ryan Jones may be willing to take a pay cut to say, 1.2 million in return for the security of a two year deal. He would be a better option in the bottom six than any of the farmhands highlighted here. The majority of them should probably be cut loose.

Smyth should not be re signed.

Arcobello I would like to see signed to a low dollar, short term one way deal. I suspect he tests UFA and signs elsewhere.

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#63 pkam
February 04 2014, 01:01PM
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@Oiler Al

"PS.. Calling people "fools" because they have a different opinion than yourself, does make you a genius."

You are lucky because I don't want to make myself a genius this way.

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#64 Blucifer Copperballs
February 04 2014, 01:24PM
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The only plus I see to having Lander/Pitlick on the 4L is the $$ tradeoff you mentioned, IF it can be used to bring in talent in a top 6 role, and not to inflate a salary under the new cap. Other than that, Jones/Joenseu, Smyth and Gazdic have, on some nights as of late, been the bright spot of a game, not in scoring, but in energy and momentum. They have even garnered that praise from Eakins and the media in some cases.

I'm exicted to see Pitlick in a 4L role as an energy player, but to say he has any benifit now over a current player is wrong. In the future, hopefully, but he was reckless when he was here, hurting himself and throwing a questionable hit in a game, if memory serves.

I've seen enough of Lander to hopefully not see him in orange and blue again, IMO. I understand his AHL #'s are good, but he hasn't looked right at the NHL at all.

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#65 Wigswag
February 04 2014, 01:34PM
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It doesn't matter how long you play in the minors. You have to raise your game when you get to the show. It's time to see what they've got.

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#66 Shredder
February 04 2014, 02:01PM
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I don't know if it's because this discussion has been going on longer this year than others, or maybe for too many years, but there is only word to describe this conversation:

BORING

Is that just the Oilers in general, or are we just saying the same things over and over?

"Coach A can't do task B" "Player X isn't motivated to hit/go to the net/take more shots/play in his own zone/etc." "GM Lowe is the problem"

I can't wait for the playoffs so I can cheer for team who stands a chance, and then maybe you guys will just shut up.

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#67 David S
February 04 2014, 04:48PM
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You know if Ryan Smyth isn't playing on the 4th line next year he'll be working his sick top cheddar lasers* over at Kentwood Ford, right?

*AKA "The Smytty Clapper"

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#68 Rod from Viking
February 04 2014, 07:46PM
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tabs wrote:

With 24 games remaining and no one in the media or otherwise talking about this being Smyth's last hurrah in the Oilers colors gives me pause. Frankly it scares the sh*t out of me.

Ryan has been a battler and needs to retire,his body is wore out. Eakins must not think the same since he is playing him all the frickin time instead of Yak on the powerplay. I hope he goes to a contender at the deadline and he wins a cup.

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#70 Oiler Al
February 05 2014, 06:25AM
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Winnipeg wins again.. Nah coaching won't make a difference!

PS... any coach that would have Gagner on the last minute of the game on the ice is not too smart.

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#71 j
February 05 2014, 09:04AM
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Lander is a point per game AHL player with leadership, defensive acumen, faceoff skills and pedigree. If he were on another farm team, we would be drooling all over him as the answer to our woes. I say give him a legitimate chance now that he has matured into the player we had hoped for 2 years ago. He was very poorly managed back then. Thankfully, he had the fortitude to persevere - let's not screw it up again by getting rid of him or playing him improperly. Give him a defined role and some time with actual NHL players. It make not work but a bird in hand is better...

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#72 ubermiguel
February 04 2014, 12:18PM
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Jonathan Willis wrote:

Jones hasn't scored a goal in 33 games.

Joensuu's been a worse player, and Gazdic's only in the NHL because he can fight.

I don't think Pitlick's a world-beater, but he's a fast skater with good size who likes to hit and can kill penalties and will be hard-pressed to deliver less offence than those guys.

Basically, at this point I don't think Jones is an NHL player any longer and it looks like Joensuu never was. Pitlick might be; that's why he should get a cameo now so the Oilers have some certainty one way or other before they go shopping this summer.

Makes sense. Basically we know what we've got with Jones, he's on the NHL bubble, and probably won't develop any further. Pitlick has some potential.

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#73 Vinny
February 04 2014, 12:53PM
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Arco is in such a tough spot. He doesn't really fit in that 4th line C role, and that seems to be the only one that's open. But he is versatile.

He could fill in for Gordon if he went down, he could fill Gagner's spot too.

If RNH and Gagner were down at the same time...like that would ever happen: Gordon and Arco could do passable jobs as 1C and 2C, better than putting wingers in the center spot. Probably with Gordon as 1C, to match the power vs power a little better.

He's not an improvement on any of those positions, but that's a lot of versatility to be had for less than $1M.

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#74 tabs
February 04 2014, 01:48PM
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pkam wrote:

You may think Gagner is not worth 4.8M, but it doesn't matter because his agent knows how much similar players get signed for.

In last offseason (before 2012-13), the Canes signed Tuomo Ruutu to 4 years @4.75M per. Go compare his number to Gagner's.

This offseason, the best NHL GM Ken Holland signed Steven Weiss to 5 years @4.9M per. A player who is at his prime (30) and is just slightly better than Gagner at 23. What do you think Holland will choose if he is given Weiss at 4.9M for 5 years and Gagner at 4.8M for 3 years?

If your only criteria for player worth is points based and your defense/argument is another overpay then you and I will never agree.

Hopefully Gags will be moved shortly and we'll see what his worth is. Taking back another bad contract at 4.8M doesn't make either player a 4.8M player, hope you understand this point.

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#75 madjam
February 04 2014, 03:55PM
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Well, the Oilers could have built the team around defence and goalie first if that was the plan to begin with. However , they felt the Oiler fans would only support a fast skilled offensive flair type team .Despite the atrocious results our team has faired over the last several seasons one thing has remained constant - sellouts for going the way that they did . In retrospect , how many would have preferred to do the rebuild the conventional way and pass up on the young offensive talents we have ? Surprisingly , not very many . They give us what they thought we wanted , but did not perceive such a long period of futility in results area . We are what they built - like it or lump it . Obviously most still prefer it or the building would be far less than capacity each night .

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#76 Dog Train
February 04 2014, 06:23PM
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Lander and Pitlick both need to get a long look after the deadline. I wouldn't even mind Horak getting some games in. As sick as I am of being a seller, we need to be practical at the deadline. If we can get something for Smyth, Jones, Hemsky or even Gagner then we should do it. I am all for having a young, energetic and cheap fourth line next season. The opportunity is there for Lander and Pitlick, they just have to take it.

As for Arcobello, I think his window of opportunity has likely closed with the Oilers. He was a great story and I hope that he gets a chance somewhere next season.

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#77 Oilerz4life
February 04 2014, 07:49PM
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JW, I think you've been spending a bit to much time in OKC bro. Sure those guys you're talking about deserve a shot, but can you honestly see them unseating the entire forth line for 2 mil savings for the Oilers? The salary cap is going up next year and the boys will get evaluated in camp to evaluate whether they're ready or not.

Lander is a sure shot in OKC but every time they give him a shot in Edm he comes up a bit short. The players you're talking about deserve a look no doubt, but to say at this point in their development that they can unseat the entire forth line on an NHL roster is a bit of a stretch I think IMO.

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#78 Will
February 04 2014, 11:20AM
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Jonathan Willis wrote:

For my money, Anton Lander's a better 4C today than Ryan Smyth is, and Tyler Pitlick's a better 4W than Luke Gazdic, Ryan Jones or Jesse Joensuu.

Admittedly, the current fourth line is pretty bad, but these are guys who could improve it.

For the sake of argument, let's say that Lander and Pitlick are rotating 12th and 13th forwards next season. Are the Oilers going to do better with someone else? Who? It's not just the money involved; I don't think they're going to find better players via free agency either.

That's good logic. It seems Smyth would bring some intangibles that Lander might not have, such as veteran leadership which the Oilers are sorely lacking. Like ubermiguel, I also have not seen Pitlick play enough.

However, I really like the effort Gazdic puts in every night. I know his role is difficult to justify through any type of stats or metrics, but when was the last time we had a fourth line energy winger that could cycle, forecheck, and even win a fight or two? I see what you're saying with the, is that worth the money, but that role is such a difficult one to quantify.

As for Jones or Joensuu, again I can't say. All I know is our fourth line has been one of the most cringe worthy hodgepodges in the Oilers line up for a while now, and if nothing else, the Smyth, Gazdic, Jones / Joensuu line at least seems to have chemistry. But again, for that amount of money, it seems like Mac T could find a cheaper option out there.

Do you think there is a fourth line currently in the league that you would see as a good example of cheap and effective?

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#79 NsxZero
February 04 2014, 12:24PM
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I do hope that we see callups after the trade deadline. What I'm worried about is that we stay stagnant and no roster spots open up. That would truly be a waste of the rest of the season.

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#80 tabs
February 04 2014, 01:09PM
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Oilcruzer wrote:

Been pumping Pitlick and Marincin tires for three years as two guys the Oil require to develop and keep.

A new question hit me. Is it possible that Lander is already a better option than Gagner?

When I proposed that Gagner's value last summer was a 2nd round pick and anything over 3M per season was a massive overpay I was criticized and many called me out as a troll.

I was also adamant against Ryan Smyth re-signing back here and stated that our group of "core veterans" needed to be shown the door. I included Gagner with that group as someone that wouldn't prove to be a 2nd line centre.

It's been almost 4 years since I and a few others were outspoken about these players.

Oilcruzer, I wouldn't be against you taking Gags spot Thursday night :) Lander would be a huge upgrade imho

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#81 loweblows
February 04 2014, 02:01PM
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loweblows wrote:

The players on the powerplay hasn't changed from last year. The only change was coaching. That's on the coach.

Actually quite a few different names have played on the powerplay this year. -Belov -Larsen -Arcobello -Fedun -Grebeshkov -Gordon -Marincin -Joensuu -Perron ....Are all new this year who have had PP time

Gone are: -Whitney -Paajarvi -Horcoff... to name a few

So in fact, it is the players that have changed. A lot of the names that have changed are from the second PP unit mind you, but that still takes up a considerable amount of PP time. Another thing to compare is the fact that we are playing Eastern conference teams this year...as well as we now play LA, SJ, ANA, PHX more often that last year.

Not saying Eakins has been a positive for the PP, but he is far from being the problem. It is the players hes given.

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#82 Randaman
February 04 2014, 04:45PM
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pkam wrote:

I am glad you are not the Oiler GM.

Stephen Weiss: 30 years old, 4+ years left @ 4.9M, 2G 2A 4 pts and -4 in 26 games.

Tuomo Ruutu: 30 years old 2+ years left @ 4.75M, 5G 9A 14 pts and -17 in 49 games.

Alexandre Burrows: 32 years old 3+ year left @ 4.5M, 0G 4A 4 pts and -10 in 25 games.

Cody Hodgson: 23 years old 5+ years @ 4.25M, 14G 16A 30 pts and -17 in 45 games.

I am sure the Wings, Canes, and Canucks are very happy to trade their player straight for Gagner. Am I glad you are not the Oilers GM.

Sabres probably won't because they think Hodgson is an asset.

My error, I did not check back to see who the other players were. Weiss and Ruutu are not included as players I would take. I don't like Gagner but I am not stupid. By the way Carolina is trying to unload Ruutu so they are in the same boat as we are with Gagner, stuck with an underachieving large contract. My opinion. Maybe broken jaws are tougher than when I had mine broken but Burrows and Gagner are both struggling but I would still take Burrows over Gagner TODAY. Who knows in 2 years.

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#83 pkam
February 04 2014, 05:17PM
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Randaman wrote:

My error, I did not check back to see who the other players were. Weiss and Ruutu are not included as players I would take. I don't like Gagner but I am not stupid. By the way Carolina is trying to unload Ruutu so they are in the same boat as we are with Gagner, stuck with an underachieving large contract. My opinion. Maybe broken jaws are tougher than when I had mine broken but Burrows and Gagner are both struggling but I would still take Burrows over Gagner TODAY. Who knows in 2 years.

At least there is some common sense now.

Burrows is just an average 2nd line players. He had one great seasons with the Sedins in 2009-10. That is about it. He is at the end of his prime at 32, I doubt he will ever get back to even 50 pts a season. In 2 years, I think he probably will be a 30 pts 3rd line players. Like Horcoff but a bit cheaper at 4.5M. I still wouldn't take him over Gagner but everyone can have their own opinion.

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#84 By corner, do you mean circle?
February 04 2014, 12:15PM
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I would love to see both Lander and Pitlick get some time after the deadline. I have been so impressed with MM and Arco this year that I keep wondering who else might be ready to make the jump and in the case of those 2, inexplicably look better than half of the current Oil roster!

On an unrelated, cold weather, Fantasy GM question - let's say you are Mac T and you are itching to get bold. You decide that your main priority is to bring in a true #1 d and you know you that you will have to be aggressive and move some pieces that are going to hurt.

1) Would any d-man be worth a package of Ebs, JSchultz and their first? If so, which players would make that list?

2) Alternately would any d-man be worth Yak, Petry and Nurse? Again, if so which players?

I'm just curious if anyone thinks that these are the kind of terms that the Oil will be looking at in order to make a deal that will substantially improve their blueline. I tried to look at it from the POV of another team and what could entice them to part with an integral piece of their roster.

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#85 pkam
February 04 2014, 02:05PM
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tabs wrote:

If your only criteria for player worth is points based and your defense/argument is another overpay then you and I will never agree.

Hopefully Gags will be moved shortly and we'll see what his worth is. Taking back another bad contract at 4.8M doesn't make either player a 4.8M player, hope you understand this point.

If you don't use stats to compare players, what do you use? Points is only part of the stats, there are others stats like +/-, hits, GvA, TkA. You can check them all.

If you think the two I quoted are overpay contracts, I can list a couple more. Hodgson just signed for 6 year @4.25M. Burrow just signed for 4 years @4.5M. Look at their stats these 3 years and tell me if Gagner is still overpaid.

I have listed 4 contracts from 4 different teams that are overpaid in your opinion, mow can you tell me 4 contracts for top 6 forward signed in the last 2 years that you think are not overpaid to prove I am wrong?

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#86 **
February 04 2014, 02:30PM
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Lander has proven he can't keep up in the NHL. Pitlick can play center. I would like a line of Ryan Smyth, Gazdic, Pitlick and Joenssu better than one with Lander (for next year anyways).

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#87 camdog
February 04 2014, 06:34PM
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Arcobello reminds of Liam Reddox. Only difference is the fans loved one and didn't like the other. Personally don't understand the contrast in how both players were viewed by some Oiler fans.

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#88 oh yeah
February 04 2014, 11:44AM
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Rocknrolla wrote:

Fist! Agreed JW!

Edit...Fist Fail!

I've checked the site and can't find the instructions for editing my own post. You clearly have found it. Can you point me in the right direction? Thank you.

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#89 S cottV
February 04 2014, 12:03PM
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Zarny wrote:

Here is the thing...nothing you listed is because there are 4 F and 1 D on the PP.

Going offside has nothing to do with that.

Perimeter passes have nothing to do with that.

Not shooting the puck has nothing to do with that. In fact, replacing the 4th F with a D likely means less shots.

Turning the puck over causing odd-man rushes has nothing to do with using 4F and 1D on the PP. Absolutely nothing.

Because they do all of that at even-strength too.

It's called having too much junior in your game and it's certainly a problem that needs fixing.

The cross ice passes that get picked off and cause odd-man rushes being the biggest concern imo.

Riddle me this...if Krueger was such a great coach why do all the players he coached last year still do this?

If you think Eakins is the problem you're a fool. These kids have done the same thing since they got to the NHL regardless of who is coaching them.

You are pretty much acknowledging that Eakins has thus far, failed to influence needed changes in the way the core player group performs - which I agree with.

The suggestion that appropriate influence is not possible with this player group - as in "regardless who is coaching them" is something I really would not agree with.

There is a big difference between a coach of Eakins stature and a top end NHL coach - with regard to the ability to influence needed change with a player group.

A player group core that is primarily comprised of young first overalls and first rounders would certainly be a challenge to influence. Not the kind of guys that will just "lap up" whatever it is you throw at them.

There is no question in my mind that a top end NHL Coach with experience, proven systems, winning record, the right charisma and the ability to push a wide range of buttons - stands the best chance at influencing a difficult player group.

Eakins has none of the above and has gone through a trial and error - back tracking learning curve that has landed the team (for some controllable and non controllable reasons) in 29th place and out of the playoff picture by mid November.

Not good for the sake of influence...

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#90 Johnnydapunk
February 04 2014, 12:23PM
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Great article as always !

I'm hoping the Oil can do a bit of cleaning of the cupboard so to speak and let some of the dead wood go. Whilst I like the effort that Ryan Jones puts in, he just doesn't do it for me, there are better players that play the way he does on the Oil, and I don't even know if he would be worth keeping in the minors. I can't see him improving and maybe another club could be the answer for him, or if that fails, Europe or the KHL would,welcome him with open arms. I don't think the Oil would miss him much, even of he seems like a nice enough dude.

As for Smyth, I'm torn about him, he brings leadership and that presence that the young Oil need, but at what price? I like him on the 4th line, and his versatility is valuable so for me at least, it's a hard decision.

My view is that this is not a good time to be a young, semi decent player in the Oil organisation, meaning the AHL players that are young and inexperienced at the NHL level is the last thing the Oil need right now.

I wasn't sold on Arcobello At first, but he is growing on me and I hope the Oil sign him as he can fit somewhere.

The thing is, all of this is dependant on what the Oil do about sorting out their problem of terrible defence. As they should trade away a kid for a stud defenceman, or going b*lls to the wall and try to sign an RFA defenceman. depending on who they trade will open up a spot on one of the first two lines, so if that happens, that will be a big factor on who to keep and let go.

A small positive is that we can see the issue clearly now that it's not bad goaltending that is a problem (it still may be next season depending on who is signed) but terrible defence. At the moment, if the Oil went in with Bryz and Scrivens with Bachman being the 3rd for next season, I wouldn't be that worried. I'm sure that will change soon enough though :-p

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#91 westcoastoil
February 04 2014, 01:35PM
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Jonathan Willis wrote:

To a degree, focusing on the top-nine makes great sense; that's what matters the most.

But most fourth lines play about 10 minutes per game; that's 17 percent of any given contest. Ignoring line four is a mistake.

Ignoring the 4th line is a mistake, but as you pointed out the $2M potential difference and proper management of the cap and young players has a far greater effect than the marginal difference between the players that this team will be rolling out on the 4th.

In most cases 5x5 their 6-10 minutes will be against other 4th lines and really their overall impact in a season is probably not more than 2 or 3 pts in the standings. By the time that 2 pts in the standings makes a difference to this team's playoff fortunes, finding the 4th solution shouldn't be an overly difficult easy task.

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#92 Oiler Al
February 04 2014, 09:57PM
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Gadzic and Joensu play 4 minutes a game because they are terrible players, revived from other teams scrap heap and have no business being in the NHL. Might as well bring back Zack Stortini.

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#93 pkam
February 04 2014, 11:52AM
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oh yeah wrote:

I've checked the site and can't find the instructions for editing my own post. You clearly have found it. Can you point me in the right direction? Thank you.

If you're the author of the post, there should be an 'Edit' button under the 'Replay' button.

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#94 Fresh Mess
February 04 2014, 12:23PM
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ubermiguel wrote:

Makes sense. Basically we know what we've got with Jones, he's on the NHL bubble, and probably won't develop any further. Pitlick has some potential.

Potential based on what? I'm not opposed to having another quick look at him after the deadline, but the word "potential" is overused by the fans of this team. I see nothing that suggests there is an NHL player there.

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#95 tabs
February 04 2014, 09:10PM
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Jonathan Willis wrote:

The Oilers fourth line is terrible, but in any even two spots - those of Smyth and Jones - are opening up as those players turn UFA anyway.

Jonathan, I will sleep better at night knowing both Jones and Smyth have moved on....

Rod from Viking, Smyth's body is worn out and his desire has left the building. Immensely popular with posters under the age of 40 I think but I've never understood his connection with Joe Fan.

Maybe 20 years of terrible hockey is the obvious explanation.

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#96 Citizen David
February 04 2014, 10:05PM
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This is a perfect article. Please oh please! Let them do this!

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#97 @Oilanderp
February 05 2014, 01:02AM
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#98 Oilerz4life
February 05 2014, 02:33AM
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Jonathan Willis wrote:

The Oilers fourth line is terrible, but in any even two spots - those of Smyth and Jones - are opening up as those players turn UFA anyway.

Fair enough. I still feel that whether Lander can fill that role or not is debatable. Still waiting on bold moves.

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#99 Joy S. Lee
February 05 2014, 12:11PM
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pkam wrote:

I am glad you are not the Oiler GM.

Stephen Weiss: 30 years old, 4+ years left @ 4.9M, 2G 2A 4 pts and -4 in 26 games.

Tuomo Ruutu: 30 years old 2+ years left @ 4.75M, 5G 9A 14 pts and -17 in 49 games.

Alexandre Burrows: 32 years old 3+ year left @ 4.5M, 0G 4A 4 pts and -10 in 25 games.

Cody Hodgson: 23 years old 5+ years @ 4.25M, 14G 16A 30 pts and -17 in 45 games.

I am sure the Wings, Canes, and Canucks are very happy to trade their player straight for Gagner. Am I glad you are not the Oilers GM.

Sabres probably won't because they think Hodgson is an asset.

I'd jump on that Hodgson for Gagner trade...and I'd toss in something (maybe a 4th?) to seal the deal.

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#100 Joy S. Lee
February 05 2014, 12:26PM
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Walter Sobchak wrote:

You forgot to mention the record breaking 10 short handed goals against & Gagner played the same easier minutes on the PP last year the same as this year.

Your top players are on the PP so the excuse that defense is worse doesn't wash here.

There are fundament changes to the PP that both Renney and Krueger used but Eakins & Mactavish completely went away from.

Last year Yakupov played R half wall, this year he floats in no mans land between the point and the high slot, completely ineffective, not to mention you have a second year player who's been on the wrong side of two on ones.

Last year, Hall played down low, again on the R half wall or down low by the net, this year RNH occupies that spot.

This is the essence of coaching, the players are told were to go, were to set up, the coaching staff has yet to change the PP which leads me to believe they like the overall PP.

Here's the difference, so far as I can tell: these kids are SO FOCUSED upon getting set up in the offensive zone, that they have completely abandoned their most useful weapon: chaos, created by their speed and skill.

In other words, teams check the Oilers PP very aggressively. This should actually lend itself to our advantage, because our skill guys tend to gain advantages by creating odd-man situations, and aggressiveness does that by its nature, if you can chip the puck past or around the pressure, and then make a skill play with the newly gained space.

The biggest problem is that these guys are passing up opportunities where they could actually garner a good chance due to the aggressiveness of the opponent, because they made it PAST the defense, and then STOPPED to set up, instead of ATTACKING NOW. They have lost the inclination to attack because of an over-commitment to the setup.

The PP setup is designed to create openings, so you can score. Why on earth are you passing up openings so that you can set up the designed system? That makes no sense whatsoever, but if you watch, this team will do exactly that, turn away from a clear opportunity to go to the net, so that they can get things nicely set up. Problem is, that means the defenders get to set up, nice and calmly, too. That is a very, very flawed perspective, and one that needs to change immediately.

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