GDB 59.0: A NEW FORMULA

Jason Gregor
February 06 2014 12:35PM

In theory, outshooting the opposition will increase your chances of success, but for short windows that isn't always the case. The Oilers are 4-3-1 in their last eight games. In the five games they picked up at least one point they were out shot 204-124. They gave up 16 more shots per game (40.8-24.8), but they got nine of a possible ten points.

In the three losses they outshot their opponents twice, 58-56, leaving the loss to Boston as the only game where getting outshot meant a loss.

The Oilers are bucking the shooting trend lately and seeing success, so maybe they should continue to do so, considering how well it has worked for the Toronto Maple Leafs.

For the past two seasons the Maple Leafs have continually been outshot, yet they win more than they lose, much to the chagrin of those who believe strongly in Corsi. Outshooting the opponents increases your chances of winning, unless you are the Maple Leafs.

In 58 games this season the Leafs have outshot their opponents a measly nine times and once they were tied in shots. In those ten games, the Leafs are 5-5. In the 48 games they've been outshot they are 25-17-6. For reasons unexplained their chance of success increases when they get outshot.

In 48 games last year they fired more shots than their opponent 11 times, but they had a losing record, 5-6, in those games. During the 37 games that they were outshot they went 21-11-5. Our friend Cam Charron over at Leafsnation is constantly befuddled and in awe of the trend setting Maple Leafs.

During their last 106 games they've been outshot, or tied, with the opposition 21 times. They picked up 20 points.
They were outshot in the other 85 games but they skated away with a total of 103 points.

They even continued that trend in the playoffs. They lost both games where they outshot the Bruins, but went 3-2 in the game the Bruins fired more pucks on goal.

The Oilers have two former Maple Leafs coaches on their bench, and now they have Ben Scrivens and Mark Fraser in the lineup. Maybe the Oilers are trying to become the Maple Leafs of the west; buck the shooting trend and win.

I know it is an incredibly small sample size, and the Oilers don't have a 47-year Stanley Cup drought to counter their lucky streak, but they do have the longest active streak, 8 years, with no playoffs and their Cup drought is just over half as long as the Leafs, 24. Could a get-out-shot-and-win strategy really be that bad of an idea?

I don't see why not. What's the worst thing that could happen? They stay in 29th place.

All joking aside, the Oilers have won four of their last five and the players, coaches and fans should take an ugly win over a "solid effort" loss any day. 

Seriously though, would you really care if the Oilers kept getting outshot, but went 46-28-11?

RANGERS...

The Rangers are one of those ~ boring ~ teams that consistently outshot their opponents on home ice. In 30 home games, the Rangers have only been oushot five times; however, they are only 14-13-3 at Madison Square Gardens.

Tonight could be the perfect storm for the Oilers. They face a team that likes to outshoot their opponents, but has limited success when they do it. The Rangers are 10-10-1 when firing more shots, 0-2-1 when tied in shots and 4-2 when they get outshot at MSG.

If you are playing the odds, then the Oilers game plan should be to let the Rangers outshoot them.

That might not be that difficult considering the Rangers are playing very well lately, 11-4-1 in 2014, and they are starting to feel comfortable under Alain Vigneaut. The Rangers are playing an up-tempo, fast-paced, aggressive game and it seems to mesh well with their personnel.

LINEUP....

Hall-RNH-Yakupov
Perron-Gagner-Eberle
Hendricks-Gordon-Hemsky
Gazdic-Smyth-Jones

Marincin-Petry
N.Schultz-J.Schultz
Fraser-Ference

Scrivens

Scrivens gets his 2nd start of the season at MSG. He made 37 saves in a 1-0 victory on November 17th as a member of the Kings, and he'll look to remain perfect against the Rangers.

Eberle and Yakupov have switched lines so fans get to see a line of all 1st overall picks playing together. Yakupov and Gagner have struggled as a duo, so trying something else makes sense. Jones replaces Joensuu and the defence stays the same.

QUICK HITS...

  • The Oilers and Rangers have almost identical offensive production. The Rangers are 18th in the NHL with 2.58 goals per game, while the Oilers are 19th at 2.55. The difference is goals against. The Rangers are 10th at 2.44 while the Oilers are 30th at 3.34.
     
  • The Oilers have allowed 55 more goals than the Rangers. The Oilers need a good start. They've given up the most goals in the first period, 61, while New York has had great starts in their recent 7-2 hot streak. The Rangers have scored 9 goals in the first period during those seven wins. They have 34 first period goals in their other 50 games combined.
     
  • I like Kyle Clifford as a player. I think he could help the team, but if the Oilers trade Sam Gagner for him and a pick, they will lose the trade. The pick likely will be a 2nd rounder at best, and 15% of 2nd round picks play more than 200 games. The chances of that pick panning out are slim. I understand Gagner has limitations, and his cap hit doesn't help things, but if the Oilers have to eat half or a bit less of his salary, and only get Clifford and a maybe in return, it will be hard to win that trade.

    Clifford did score 28 goals and 57 points in 58 games as a 19-year-old in the OHL, so he does have skill; however, he has 22 goals and 45 points in 253 NHL games. I know he's played essentially on the 4th line, moonlighting a bit on the 3rd and 2nd, but he would need to become one of the biggest surprises ever to become a top-six forward. I realize he would be a complimentary guy and playing with Hall, RNH or Eberle would give him more opportunities to score, but it would still be almost impossible for him to suddenly become a 40-point player.

    Last year, I wrote I'd have offer sheeted him for $1-1.5 million, because the Kings didn't have much cap space, so I do believe he would help, but not at the cost of Gagner and half of Gagner's salary.
     
  • I've said and written in the past I would sacrifice a small forward with 30-goal potential for a bigger body, who is a proven 20-goal man, but who bangs, crashes and battles. But you can't trade a 45-point player for Clifford. His best season was last year 7-7-14 in 48 games, and if you prorate he'd be a 23-point player in 82 games. I have no problem if the Oilers move a skill forward for a big body with a bit less skill, but not half the offensive production.
     
  • Nice to see Marty St.Louis make Team Canada, but I'm curious if he plays or is the 14th forward. Is Matt Duchene still the 14th guy, because he is young, or does he move up and now St.Louis is the extra body? I'm curious to see how Mike Babcock handles that situation.
     
  • Jimmy Fallon is way better than Jay Leno. The tonight show will be much better with Fallon.

TONIGHT...

***Female readers always ask why I only post pictures of attractive women, so to be fair here you go ladies. The best looking man in the NHL.***

GAME DAY PREDICTION: This is a low scoring affair, and the Oilers continue to buck the shooting trend with a 2-1 victory. Gagner scores just to add fuel to the trade speculation.

OBVIOUS GAME DAY PREDICTION: The Rangers outshoot the Oilers. Scrivens has faced an average of 39 shots in his five starts with the Oilers, but tonight he gets an "easier" night facing only 36.

NOT-SO-OBVIOUS GAME DAY PREDICTION: Most fans are more concerned with Gagner trade talk than that game, and they should be. Game 59 in another losing season isn't as juicy as trade rumours. The next 24 hours -- trade freeze starts tomorrow at 1 p.m. MST -- will be fun, but likely not as interesting as the stretch from February 24th to the March 05th trade deadline.

RECENTLY BY JASON GREGOR 

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One of Canada's most versatile sports personalities. Jason hosts The Jason Gregor Show, weekdays from 2 to 6 p.m., on TSN 1260, and he writes a column every Monday in the Edmonton Journal. You can follow him on Twitter at twitter.com/JasonGregor
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#51 Jordan Nugent-Hallkins
February 06 2014, 04:20PM
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@NJ

As much as I would love Mackinnon on the Oilers, I don't see the Avs trading him any time soon.

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#52 toprightcorner
February 06 2014, 04:22PM
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I don't get the push to trade Gagne before the deadline, those trades are typically for playoff teams adding players for a pick, non roster players or players that don't benefit their team.

The goal is/should be to get an asset to help fill a hole on team, which will likely take a package, like a top pairing damn or a top 6 power forward. No team that is in the hunt will give up a quality everyday player. That leaves maybe 3 teams that would trade a player like that, Buf, Fla and Cal.

MacT should wait until the draft or just before July 1 when Gagner's NMC kicks in. There will be many more options to get a proven player in return for a package and knowing where we pick will give certain value to that pick.

There is no reason a package with Gagne and a combination of Klefbom, Lander, Arcobello, Fedun, other prospects and 1st round pick couldn't get a top pairing damn or top 6 power forward or big 2 way 2nd line center in return.

I have no problem trading our lottery pick in a package for a top pair damn or top 6 power forward. That pick will take 3-4 years to benefit the team and the Oilers really need a player that will help the team starting next year.

The options and possible destinations increase substantially if MacT waits until after the season to trade Gagner.

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#53 ?
February 06 2014, 04:26PM
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Oilers lose tonight, 5-2. Richards with a pair, Yahoo (ya kupov, sounds like a cool nickname to me) scores one off a wrist shot fivehole on the King.

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#54 toprightcorner
February 06 2014, 04:29PM
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jack wrote:

it will probably be garner and someone for clifford green and someone else good, green when in the lineup, la has only won a few games, but we will probably have to take salary back

Not a chance the King's trade Green, he was a vital part of the locker room when they won the cup. Quick said Green was a huge benefit keeping him relaxed yet focused during that run. Character depth defenseman are what contenders trade for, not trade away.

PS, I would love to have Green back but he would only fit as a bottom pair and we have 6 of those already.

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#55 Brad
February 06 2014, 04:42PM
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@Brad

Funny how get trashed I should have said they were a great organization that has had the worst record in the NHL for about 8 years. What was I thinking.

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#56 They're $hittie
February 06 2014, 04:50PM
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TonyT wrote:

When I say it, I mean the Cup (this isn't Vancouver). The owner and management didn't decide the scorched earth route just for the end goal of making the playoffs. I also agree that the team can't win with Yak and Eberle, if you believe that this team is one Chris Pronger away from the playoffs than I strongly disagree. As previously discussed in every blog on this site for the past little while the top 6 is not balanced and do I believe a few years of seasoning will make them a better team? Maybe, when Getzlaf, Perry, Kopitar, Brown, Thornton, Burns, Doan, Hanzal, Sedin, Kesler all retire or get up and switch divisions. Again, I am not advocating for this trade, however if that is the only offer on the table I would at the very least consider it given that I don't believe that top 6 wins the Cup, makes the playoffs, or gets out of the draft lottery even with three years more experience.

I get you. But trading Gagner just to make a trade hurts us it doesnt help us. Yes there are defensive liabilities but until 2lc is filled he is your best option at this position. Trading for a 4RW leaves us with another large hole. With the Cap going up his salary wont bother us. Keeping him and putting him on wing would help with center depth in case of injury.

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#57 They're $hittie
February 06 2014, 04:56PM
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NJ wrote:

Gagner is a "2B" center. Arcobello is an unproven 2B. Trading Gagner for almost nothing won't help us. It's like watching Souray walk for nothing. We can talk all day about getting rid of the guy but the facts are nobody is gonna fill that spot, unless MacT is looking to the draft for that... And we know how that's worked so far for us right?

I wonder if we could get McKinnon (sp?) out of Colorado for Gagner and Eberle. We eat some of Gagner's contract... But RNH and McKinnon down the middle looks better than our current situation, Hemmer moves us for Eberle and we dump all sorts of salary to sign Nate long term! Just a thought.

Also ... Yak for Jones = win. I'd even go as far as Eberle for Jones. Nashville needs scoring, Jones IS a future #1 D.

Lastly: I think Gagner's NTC, when it kicks in, is fluff. Who wouldn't waive it to get out of Edmonton. Cold hard sucky FACT.

With oilers management at the wheel probably easier to tank for mcdavid, than to move out of the bottom 5. just terrible.

Trade Eberle and Klefbom + pick for a (pietrangelo) type

Move Gagner to RW or trade plus pick for Simmonds

Hall-Mcdavid-Yak Perron-Nuge-Gagner ?????-Gordon-????? ?????-??????-?????

(pietrangelo type)-Nurse Ekblad-Petry Marancin-Schultz Gernat

Much better than now.

We can say we want to win now and no more losing, but this is the oilers do you see any winning on the horizon?

sooooooo frustrating as a 7 year season ticket holder to watch this.

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#58 Serious Gord
February 06 2014, 05:02PM
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Some nobody in NYR net tonight. Not sure of 5-2 rangers will be the result...

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#59 RexHolez
February 06 2014, 05:09PM
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Serious Gord wrote:

Some nobody in NYR net tonight. Not sure of 5-2 rangers will be the result...

So you think the oilers will lose 5-3?

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#60 Old Retired Guy (A.K.A. Die-Nasty)
February 06 2014, 05:10PM
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ubermiguel wrote:

I did some quick number crunching with all the teams in the NHL this year. I looked at the correlation between wins and other stats. The closer to 1, the more the stats move together and there’s a strong chance they are related.

Winning% and shots per game: 0.51

Winning% and shots against per game: 0.46

Winning% and shot differential: 0.63

So it is safe to say a team wins more if they maximize the shots for and minimize the shots against. You correctly identified that the sample size of 5 games and one Leafs team is too small to draw any conclusions.

I did some number crunching and determined that the teams that score more goals in a game win more often than teams that score less goals in a game.

I call the stat OFCORSI

Edit: not intended as retort to you're post ubermigel. I should have posted it separately.

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#61 Serious Gord
February 06 2014, 05:18PM
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RexHolez wrote:

So you think the oilers will lose 5-3?

5-4 in ot.

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#62 Old Retired Guy (A.K.A. Die-Nasty)
February 06 2014, 05:20PM
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GDP: Big and skilled beats Small and skilled. Rangers Win!

Thats if they don't get SCRIVENATED!

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#63 Reg Dunlop
February 06 2014, 05:26PM
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Can anyone explain why Hall chased the ranger D into the corner and as the D dumps the puck out Hall almost breaks an ankle stopping before he so much as touched him. AMAZING. I have never seen hockey played this way. Not even no-hit beer league. Not even women's hockey.

Maybe Hall scored before the game and didn't want to break the baggie in his pocket.

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#64 bwar
February 06 2014, 05:26PM
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I don't care what the return is on a Gagner trade as long as we don't have to eat salary. If we are eating salary then the return better be big.

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#65 NJ
February 06 2014, 05:30PM
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Jordan Nugent-Hallkins wrote:

As much as I would love Mackinnon on the Oilers, I don't see the Avs trading him any time soon.

That may be true. I don't know why Sakic would unless he feels that Eberle fits better short and wants the experience. Gagner would fill the spot (3c) that Mackinnon currently fills.

Anyhow, I suppose one can dream. I've been dreaming of winning side I loved to Etown in 99.... Couple more decades won't hurt.

/facepalm

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#66 Rick Stroppel
February 06 2014, 05:47PM
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Reg Dunlop wrote:

Can anyone explain why Hall chased the ranger D into the corner and as the D dumps the puck out Hall almost breaks an ankle stopping before he so much as touched him. AMAZING. I have never seen hockey played this way. Not even no-hit beer league. Not even women's hockey.

Maybe Hall scored before the game and didn't want to break the baggie in his pocket.

I HAVE IT ON GOOD AUTHORITY!

I heard that too. My brother-in-law's cousin's kid's teacher's friend heard it from a guy he met at the bar! IT'S GOTTA BE TRUE!

PS: And some people wonder why some UFA's are reluctant to come play in Edmonton.

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#67 Reg Dunlop
February 06 2014, 05:56PM
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Rick Stroppel wrote:

I HAVE IT ON GOOD AUTHORITY!

I heard that too. My brother-in-law's cousin's kid's teacher's friend heard it from a guy he met at the bar! IT'S GOTTA BE TRUE!

PS: And some people wonder why some UFA's are reluctant to come play in Edmonton.

You heard something? Wow, I just made it up but if you heard something it must be true. Wait till I tell everybody I know... this is BIG news. Thanks, man!

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#68 Mason Storm
February 06 2014, 06:24PM
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bwar wrote:

I don't care what the return is on a Gagner trade as long as we don't have to eat salary. If we are eating salary then the return better be big.

Read this as celery instead of salary. I gotta lay off the booze. I agree either way tho. I hate celery

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#69 Old Retired Guy (A.K.A. Die-Nasty)
February 06 2014, 06:25PM
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How can you review intent to blow the whistle? The broadcast crew is saying it's the intent to blow the whistle but yet the play is under review. Doesn't make sense.

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#70 Old Retired Guy (A.K.A. Die-Nasty)
February 06 2014, 06:25PM
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Man Scrivens looks like a goalie.

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#71 Old Retired Guy (A.K.A. Die-Nasty)
February 06 2014, 06:28PM
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Nash looks invisible in this game.

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#72 Reg Dunlop
February 06 2014, 06:29PM
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Gagner's drop pass illustrates reason 38 of 52 why he needs to go.

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#73 Lofty
February 06 2014, 06:37PM
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SHOOT THE PUCK!

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#74 Old Retired Guy (A.K.A. Die-Nasty)
February 06 2014, 06:45PM
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Reg Dunlop wrote:

Gagner's drop pass illustrates reason 38 of 52 why he needs to go.

I find myself enjoying the game watching Scrivens, Marincin, Nuge and Hall stealing pucks, Perron with a 30 ft backhand off the crossbar, etc. Then Gagner does his thing and I cringe. BUZZKILL.

(Yes..it's partly my built in bias.)

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#75 tabs
February 06 2014, 07:01PM
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Yak has looked good, like to see him stay there for the rest of the season.

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#76 Old Retired Guy (A.K.A. Die-Nasty)
February 06 2014, 07:03PM
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Anyone else a little worried about Team Canada? .....Nash, St. Louis, Carter, Kunitz, and suspect goaltending. Don't get me wrong, cheering like hell....but uneasy feeling. I hope it's just the fish I ate for supper.

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#77 Old Retired Guy (A.K.A. Die-Nasty)
February 06 2014, 07:04PM
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tabs wrote:

Yak has looked good, like to see him stay there for the rest of the season.

I agree. I mean really, why not?

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#78 Mason Storm
February 06 2014, 07:12PM
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Old Retired Guy (A.K.A. Die-Nasty) wrote:

I agree. I mean really, why not?

Dallas Eakins

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#79 Oilerz4life
February 06 2014, 07:16PM
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That line-up is pretty weak. The bottom six was stronger with Hendricks-Gordon-Jones, Gazdic-Smyth-Joensuu. That's part of the pussy factor anyway.

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#80 @Oilanderp
February 06 2014, 07:22PM
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I love how when our skill lines actually dump it in instead of turning it over at the blue, our wingers get in there fast and.... slam on the breaks and hug the boards 1 ft from the d-man. It takes more effort to do that than actually just coast in the same direction and accidentally bang into them. That would be called a hit. Brutal.

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#81 Arius Mumin
February 06 2014, 07:27PM
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Oiler better keep Marincin. The kid will grow to be Lil'Euro'Rake.

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#82 Arius Mumin
February 06 2014, 07:30PM
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Love Yak's enthusiasm when he scores.

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#83 Reg Dunlop
February 06 2014, 07:32PM
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What a snipe by Yak. What continues to impress me is the play of Marincin. After a couple hundred games, say 2016, we will finally have our 25min/night #1Dman.

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#84 The Soup Fascist
February 06 2014, 07:36PM
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Marincin on the ice at critical times including end of the game D-zone face off. Great to see. Hope he doesn't wake up and suddenly realize he should be n-n-n-nervous out there.

Best case, he continues to develop and learn hanging with Z in Sochi.

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#85 Rod from Viking
February 06 2014, 07:37PM
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Don't trade anyone and extend all the FA's and assistant coaches.

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#86 jonny94
February 06 2014, 07:38PM
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Good job Gregor. 2-1 final for the Oilers.

5 wins over the past 6 games... Let's keep it rolling boys.

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#87 pkam
February 06 2014, 07:47PM
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Wow, does JG have a crystal ball? We did win 2-1 and Rangers did put 36 shots on Scriven. And everyone is talking about the Gagner trade here. What is the chance of that?

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#88 Old Retired Guy (A.K.A. Die-Nasty)
February 06 2014, 07:51PM
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Gregor on Fire last few weeks! Time to start wagering!

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#89 Reg Dunlop
February 06 2014, 07:54PM
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What are the oil, say 20 points behind Vancouver with 25 games left? If we catch them, and make no mistake they are falling like a dead hooker into a dumpster, they should fold that pathetic franchise. Go oil. 1 win= uncontainable optimism.

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#90 The Soup Fascist
February 06 2014, 07:55PM
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..... And now Jason Gregor will provide the winning numbers for tomorrow's Lotto Max $40 million grand prize.

And all h-e-double hockey sticks breaks out when 237 loyal ON readers show up to each claim their share.

FFS Gregor. You are a WITCH!

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#91 Old Retired Guy (A.K.A. Die-Nasty)
February 06 2014, 07:58PM
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Team Sweden loses one Sedin for Olympics.

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#92 Bi-Curious Gord
February 06 2014, 07:58PM
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Whoa! Whoa! We haven't won yet, boys. Lets wait and see if the Corsi Gods say its a legit win.

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#93 The Soup Fascist
February 06 2014, 08:00PM
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Old Retired Guy (A.K.A. Die-Nasty) wrote:

Team Sweden loses one Sedin for Olympics.

Danny boy is half as effective w/o Hank than with him. Whole is greater than the sum of the parts ... And all that.

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#94 Old Retired Guy (A.K.A. Die-Nasty)
February 06 2014, 08:00PM
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Nick Kyprios reporting Gagner to LA likely to get done before Olympic break. Meaning TOMORROW!

All eyes will be on Oilers morning skate if they have one.

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#95 Tuningout
February 06 2014, 08:06PM
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I havent watched a game since early December and things have changed according to this game.

The good

Marincin.. wow, for a kid he's good. I wish he could be a #4 next year but if he has to be 2-3 I won't be too worried.

Hall.. give this kid the C already.

Don't sign Scrivens yet... wait for him to give up a bad goal or three (sarcasm, he looks for reals)

Gagner.. looks like he tried, as did lines 3 and 4. Nothing great, but can't complain. That's good right ?

Gregor.. amazing call, great insight. Should've played poker tonight instead of writing the GDB

The bad

Hemsky.. I love this guy, and I don't want him traded, but unless they can sign him for third line money... sigh

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#96 Bi-Curious Gord
February 06 2014, 08:07PM
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Old Retired Guy (A.K.A. Die-Nasty) wrote:

Team Sweden loses one Sedin for Olympics.

Who will tie Daniel's skates if Henrik isn't there?

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#97 The Soup Fascist
February 06 2014, 08:09PM
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Old Retired Guy (A.K.A. Die-Nasty) wrote:

Nick Kyprios reporting Gagner to LA likely to get done before Olympic break. Meaning TOMORROW!

All eyes will be on Oilers morning skate if they have one.

Is That Nick Kyprios your local donair restaurant owner?

'Cause Nick Kypreos from Sportsnet hasn't tweeted for 6 hours and pretty sure nothing official happens unless it is on Twitter.

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#98 vinotintazo
February 06 2014, 08:10PM
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Bi-Curious Gord wrote:

Whoa! Whoa! We haven't won yet, boys. Lets wait and see if the Corsi Gods say its a legit win.

Don't worry they will get backlund lol!

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#99 Rod from Viking
February 06 2014, 08:27PM
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The Soup Fascist wrote:

Is That Nick Kyprios your local donair restaurant owner?

'Cause Nick Kypreos from Sportsnet hasn't tweeted for 6 hours and pretty sure nothing official happens unless it is on Twitter.

It was put up on Sportsnet, not a tweet.

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#100 Old Retired Guy (A.K.A. Die-Nasty)
February 06 2014, 08:35PM
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The Soup Fascist wrote:

Is That Nick Kyprios your local donair restaurant owner?

'Cause Nick Kypreos from Sportsnet hasn't tweeted for 6 hours and pretty sure nothing official happens unless it is on Twitter.

That's just silly Soupy....the Gretzky trade wasn't even on Twitter.

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