GDB 59.0: A NEW FORMULA

Jason Gregor
February 06 2014 12:35PM

In theory, outshooting the opposition will increase your chances of success, but for short windows that isn't always the case. The Oilers are 4-3-1 in their last eight games. In the five games they picked up at least one point they were out shot 204-124. They gave up 16 more shots per game (40.8-24.8), but they got nine of a possible ten points.

In the three losses they outshot their opponents twice, 58-56, leaving the loss to Boston as the only game where getting outshot meant a loss.

The Oilers are bucking the shooting trend lately and seeing success, so maybe they should continue to do so, considering how well it has worked for the Toronto Maple Leafs.

For the past two seasons the Maple Leafs have continually been outshot, yet they win more than they lose, much to the chagrin of those who believe strongly in Corsi. Outshooting the opponents increases your chances of winning, unless you are the Maple Leafs.

In 58 games this season the Leafs have outshot their opponents a measly nine times and once they were tied in shots. In those ten games, the Leafs are 5-5. In the 48 games they've been outshot they are 25-17-6. For reasons unexplained their chance of success increases when they get outshot.

In 48 games last year they fired more shots than their opponent 11 times, but they had a losing record, 5-6, in those games. During the 37 games that they were outshot they went 21-11-5. Our friend Cam Charron over at Leafsnation is constantly befuddled and in awe of the trend setting Maple Leafs.

During their last 106 games they've been outshot, or tied, with the opposition 21 times. They picked up 20 points.
They were outshot in the other 85 games but they skated away with a total of 103 points.

They even continued that trend in the playoffs. They lost both games where they outshot the Bruins, but went 3-2 in the game the Bruins fired more pucks on goal.

The Oilers have two former Maple Leafs coaches on their bench, and now they have Ben Scrivens and Mark Fraser in the lineup. Maybe the Oilers are trying to become the Maple Leafs of the west; buck the shooting trend and win.

I know it is an incredibly small sample size, and the Oilers don't have a 47-year Stanley Cup drought to counter their lucky streak, but they do have the longest active streak, 8 years, with no playoffs and their Cup drought is just over half as long as the Leafs, 24. Could a get-out-shot-and-win strategy really be that bad of an idea?

I don't see why not. What's the worst thing that could happen? They stay in 29th place.

All joking aside, the Oilers have won four of their last five and the players, coaches and fans should take an ugly win over a "solid effort" loss any day. 

Seriously though, would you really care if the Oilers kept getting outshot, but went 46-28-11?

RANGERS...

The Rangers are one of those ~ boring ~ teams that consistently outshot their opponents on home ice. In 30 home games, the Rangers have only been oushot five times; however, they are only 14-13-3 at Madison Square Gardens.

Tonight could be the perfect storm for the Oilers. They face a team that likes to outshoot their opponents, but has limited success when they do it. The Rangers are 10-10-1 when firing more shots, 0-2-1 when tied in shots and 4-2 when they get outshot at MSG.

If you are playing the odds, then the Oilers game plan should be to let the Rangers outshoot them.

That might not be that difficult considering the Rangers are playing very well lately, 11-4-1 in 2014, and they are starting to feel comfortable under Alain Vigneaut. The Rangers are playing an up-tempo, fast-paced, aggressive game and it seems to mesh well with their personnel.

LINEUP....

Hall-RNH-Yakupov
Perron-Gagner-Eberle
Hendricks-Gordon-Hemsky
Gazdic-Smyth-Jones

Marincin-Petry
N.Schultz-J.Schultz
Fraser-Ference

Scrivens

Scrivens gets his 2nd start of the season at MSG. He made 37 saves in a 1-0 victory on November 17th as a member of the Kings, and he'll look to remain perfect against the Rangers.

Eberle and Yakupov have switched lines so fans get to see a line of all 1st overall picks playing together. Yakupov and Gagner have struggled as a duo, so trying something else makes sense. Jones replaces Joensuu and the defence stays the same.

QUICK HITS...

  • The Oilers and Rangers have almost identical offensive production. The Rangers are 18th in the NHL with 2.58 goals per game, while the Oilers are 19th at 2.55. The difference is goals against. The Rangers are 10th at 2.44 while the Oilers are 30th at 3.34.
     
  • The Oilers have allowed 55 more goals than the Rangers. The Oilers need a good start. They've given up the most goals in the first period, 61, while New York has had great starts in their recent 7-2 hot streak. The Rangers have scored 9 goals in the first period during those seven wins. They have 34 first period goals in their other 50 games combined.
     
  • I like Kyle Clifford as a player. I think he could help the team, but if the Oilers trade Sam Gagner for him and a pick, they will lose the trade. The pick likely will be a 2nd rounder at best, and 15% of 2nd round picks play more than 200 games. The chances of that pick panning out are slim. I understand Gagner has limitations, and his cap hit doesn't help things, but if the Oilers have to eat half or a bit less of his salary, and only get Clifford and a maybe in return, it will be hard to win that trade.

    Clifford did score 28 goals and 57 points in 58 games as a 19-year-old in the OHL, so he does have skill; however, he has 22 goals and 45 points in 253 NHL games. I know he's played essentially on the 4th line, moonlighting a bit on the 3rd and 2nd, but he would need to become one of the biggest surprises ever to become a top-six forward. I realize he would be a complimentary guy and playing with Hall, RNH or Eberle would give him more opportunities to score, but it would still be almost impossible for him to suddenly become a 40-point player.

    Last year, I wrote I'd have offer sheeted him for $1-1.5 million, because the Kings didn't have much cap space, so I do believe he would help, but not at the cost of Gagner and half of Gagner's salary.
     
  • I've said and written in the past I would sacrifice a small forward with 30-goal potential for a bigger body, who is a proven 20-goal man, but who bangs, crashes and battles. But you can't trade a 45-point player for Clifford. His best season was last year 7-7-14 in 48 games, and if you prorate he'd be a 23-point player in 82 games. I have no problem if the Oilers move a skill forward for a big body with a bit less skill, but not half the offensive production.
     
  • Nice to see Marty St.Louis make Team Canada, but I'm curious if he plays or is the 14th forward. Is Matt Duchene still the 14th guy, because he is young, or does he move up and now St.Louis is the extra body? I'm curious to see how Mike Babcock handles that situation.
     
  • Jimmy Fallon is way better than Jay Leno. The tonight show will be much better with Fallon.

TONIGHT...

***Female readers always ask why I only post pictures of attractive women, so to be fair here you go ladies. The best looking man in the NHL.***

GAME DAY PREDICTION: This is a low scoring affair, and the Oilers continue to buck the shooting trend with a 2-1 victory. Gagner scores just to add fuel to the trade speculation.

OBVIOUS GAME DAY PREDICTION: The Rangers outshoot the Oilers. Scrivens has faced an average of 39 shots in his five starts with the Oilers, but tonight he gets an "easier" night facing only 36.

NOT-SO-OBVIOUS GAME DAY PREDICTION: Most fans are more concerned with Gagner trade talk than that game, and they should be. Game 59 in another losing season isn't as juicy as trade rumours. The next 24 hours -- trade freeze starts tomorrow at 1 p.m. MST -- will be fun, but likely not as interesting as the stretch from February 24th to the March 05th trade deadline.

RECENTLY BY JASON GREGOR 

Ddf3e2ba09069c465299f3c416e43eae
One of Canada's most versatile sports personalities. Jason hosts The Jason Gregor Show, weekdays from 2 to 6 p.m., on TSN 1260, and he writes a column every Monday in the Edmonton Journal. You can follow him on Twitter at twitter.com/JasonGregor
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#1 They're $hittie
February 06 2014, 01:13PM
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Oilers check list

1. Sign Gagner to one year deal giving him all the leverage for his next contract, (not buying low)

2. Over value Eberle and buy high by signing to an overpaid contract (buying high)

3. Have gagner out perform Eberle lasy year and have reasonable demands for huge contract (buy high)

4. Have Gagner get hurt play poorly and trade for the sake of trading to get another 4th line player because he is big, instead of getting these players for free on the waiver wire. (sell low)

So glad these guys arent managing my money

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#2 Old Retired Guy (A.K.A. Die-Nasty)
February 06 2014, 06:25PM
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Man Scrivens looks like a goalie.

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#3 Arius Mumin
February 06 2014, 07:30PM
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Love Yak's enthusiasm when he scores.

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#4 Arius Mumin
February 06 2014, 07:27PM
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Oiler better keep Marincin. The kid will grow to be Lil'Euro'Rake.

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#5 Reg Dunlop
February 06 2014, 06:29PM
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Gagner's drop pass illustrates reason 38 of 52 why he needs to go.

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#6 dougtheslug
February 06 2014, 10:19PM
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Intercepted text from MacT to Klowe:

Who could have predicted that competent goaltending makes such a difference? I'm going to have to re-think my theory that the key to winning is a solid 4th line.

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#7 Rob...
February 06 2014, 01:10PM
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Any stories from Struds on how he felt after he retired and passed the torch to Lundqvist?

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#8 Oiler Al
February 06 2014, 02:32PM
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Why would you give a player a $4.8 contract and then several months later decide that all he is worth is a fourth line plugger, who barely score 10 points per year?[ and take back salary]

MacT should be run out of town if he did this deal.

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#9 Reg Dunlop
February 06 2014, 07:54PM
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What are the oil, say 20 points behind Vancouver with 25 games left? If we catch them, and make no mistake they are falling like a dead hooker into a dumpster, they should fold that pathetic franchise. Go oil. 1 win= uncontainable optimism.

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#10 tom.MTL
February 06 2014, 07:58PM
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Whoa! Whoa! We haven't won yet, boys. Lets wait and see if the Corsi Gods say its a legit win.

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#11 Dean Belanger
February 06 2014, 12:50PM
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Damn that is a fine looking bastard!

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#12 Reg Dunlop
February 06 2014, 07:32PM
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What a snipe by Yak. What continues to impress me is the play of Marincin. After a couple hundred games, say 2016, we will finally have our 25min/night #1Dman.

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#13 Reg Dunlop
February 06 2014, 05:26PM
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Can anyone explain why Hall chased the ranger D into the corner and as the D dumps the puck out Hall almost breaks an ankle stopping before he so much as touched him. AMAZING. I have never seen hockey played this way. Not even no-hit beer league. Not even women's hockey.

Maybe Hall scored before the game and didn't want to break the baggie in his pocket.

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#14 tabs
February 06 2014, 07:01PM
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Yak has looked good, like to see him stay there for the rest of the season.

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#15 The Soup Fascist
February 06 2014, 07:36PM
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Marincin on the ice at critical times including end of the game D-zone face off. Great to see. Hope he doesn't wake up and suddenly realize he should be n-n-n-nervous out there.

Best case, he continues to develop and learn hanging with Z in Sochi.

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#16 gcw_rocks
February 06 2014, 03:00PM
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The deal should be:

Gagner, Klefbom and Hemsky to NJ for Adam Larsson and Adam Henrique.

New Jersey can't score, so they get an offensive boost from Gagner as well as Hemsky as a rental. They also get Klefbom to replace Larsson in thier pipeline.

The Oilers get a strong two-way centre with history playing with Hall and a 6'3" future top pairing defender.

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#17 Mason Storm
February 06 2014, 07:12PM
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Old Retired Guy (A.K.A. Die-Nasty) wrote:

I agree. I mean really, why not?

Dallas Eakins

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#18 Mason Storm
February 06 2014, 06:24PM
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bwar wrote:

I don't care what the return is on a Gagner trade as long as we don't have to eat salary. If we are eating salary then the return better be big.

Read this as celery instead of salary. I gotta lay off the booze. I agree either way tho. I hate celery

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#19 Old Retired Guy (A.K.A. Die-Nasty)
February 06 2014, 07:03PM
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Anyone else a little worried about Team Canada? .....Nash, St. Louis, Carter, Kunitz, and suspect goaltending. Don't get me wrong, cheering like hell....but uneasy feeling. I hope it's just the fish I ate for supper.

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#20 Johnnydapunk
February 06 2014, 09:00PM
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Jeebus Gregor, you were on it with the GDP, one thing for the score, but shots on net as well, nice!!

I don't know how I feel about the game, it was a ground out win, but too many loose chances. That power play is dangerous, the short handed chances are terrible to keep allowing. No point in repeating the obvious.

I could be reading too much in what he says, but it does seem like Scrivens has the idea that staying with the Oil isn't that bad of an opportunity. When he was interviewed with Príncipe, he mentioned that he is enjoying getting to know the players on and off the ice and kindof trailed off when he referred to the summer, but not in a bad way. He is not the type of player to say words without thought so perhaps he is warming to the idea of being an Oil goalie for longer than just the season.

If the D gets sorted and if the Oil decide to keep Bryz and Scrivens. Next season might not be half bad. The problem is isolated now and hopefully MacT can pull the right triggers to get the players the Oil need.

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#21 Max
February 06 2014, 12:49PM
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Enough of the analysis - same old same old, day in and out. Let's just WIN on a regular basis - PLEASE.

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#22 Shredder
February 06 2014, 02:33PM
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"TRADE GAGNER, he sucks, he's way too small, he's never even hit 50 pts!"

"OK, I'll give you Kyle Clifford."

"NO WAY, I"M KEEPING GAGNER, HE'S A 50 PT GUY, MAYBE MORE"

"Kyle Clifford plus..."

"PLUS WHAT? BETTER BE GOOD, GAGNER IS PART OF THE OFFENSIVE CORE THAT SCORES 60+ PTS EVERY YEAR"

"I dunno, a pick, maybe Dwight King and a low pick"

"FORGET IT, WE LOSE THAT DEAL, GAGNER IS THE BEST PLAYER, AND WHOEVER GETS THE BEST PLAYER WINS THE DEAL"

"...ok, well I dunno then, we're making a run for the cup and we need our players, and we're trying to improve our team here"

"..."

"..."

"MACT SUCKS, HE CAN'T EVEN TRADE GAGNER. GAGNER SUCKS, JUST GIVE HIM AWAY FOR A BAG OF PUCKS. IF MACT WAS ANY GOOD, WE'D HAVE WEBER BY NOW"

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#23 jonny94
February 06 2014, 07:38PM
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Good job Gregor. 2-1 final for the Oilers.

5 wins over the past 6 games... Let's keep it rolling boys.

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#24 Old Retired Guy (A.K.A. Die-Nasty)
February 06 2014, 08:00PM
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Nick Kyprios reporting Gagner to LA likely to get done before Olympic break. Meaning TOMORROW!

All eyes will be on Oilers morning skate if they have one.

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#25 They're $hittie
February 06 2014, 01:08PM
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TonyT wrote:

I'm really torn on this Gagner deal. Do I think Gagner for Clifford is a good trade? No, that's a loss hands down. However, if that's the best (or only deal) out there, will this team ever be in a position where Gagner is traded for similiar value? I'd argue and the past four seasons (outside of that 8 pt night) have displayed that the answer is no. The question for me then becomes are the Oilers a better team with or without Gagner? As currently constructed, I'd argue the team (outside of trading from the top line) is not better with Gagner.

SO outside his 8 point night he has done nothing else? What about the next game against Detroit? What about the 25 final games of his rookie year?

Gagner may not be the best fit for the team. But trading him and getting a worse player makes this team worse. You may not have a way to win this trade, but there is no harm waiting until draft day when the cap has gone up.

Gagner for Clifford (a terrible hockey player) is a terrible trade.

I agree that he has to go, but the haters need to stop dwelling on low points and the praisers on the high points. There is a hockey palyer there and maye being in a proper organization with some stability Sam will take the next step in his career.

There is no way we can win this trade. But there is no addition by subtraction here (oilers have no center depth, and Arco is temporary fill in). But we dont need to do something right now just to say we did.

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#26 tom.MTL
February 06 2014, 08:07PM
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Old Retired Guy (A.K.A. Die-Nasty) wrote:

Team Sweden loses one Sedin for Olympics.

Who will tie Daniel's skates if Henrik isn't there?

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#27 Old Retired Guy (A.K.A. Die-Nasty)
February 06 2014, 05:10PM
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ubermiguel wrote:

I did some quick number crunching with all the teams in the NHL this year. I looked at the correlation between wins and other stats. The closer to 1, the more the stats move together and there’s a strong chance they are related.

Winning% and shots per game: 0.51

Winning% and shots against per game: 0.46

Winning% and shot differential: 0.63

So it is safe to say a team wins more if they maximize the shots for and minimize the shots against. You correctly identified that the sample size of 5 games and one Leafs team is too small to draw any conclusions.

I did some number crunching and determined that the teams that score more goals in a game win more often than teams that score less goals in a game.

I call the stat OFCORSI

Edit: not intended as retort to you're post ubermigel. I should have posted it separately.

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#28 @Oilanderp
February 06 2014, 07:22PM
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I love how when our skill lines actually dump it in instead of turning it over at the blue, our wingers get in there fast and.... slam on the breaks and hug the boards 1 ft from the d-man. It takes more effort to do that than actually just coast in the same direction and accidentally bang into them. That would be called a hit. Brutal.

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#29 Doctor Smashy
February 06 2014, 09:55PM
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Wow. Imagine that. Gagner is 50% in the dot and sets up the winning goal. Maybe he isn't the worst hockey player in the Universe after all.

Can we please just agree to keep Gagner now? He might be the guy we trade in a few years for OUR cup run. Right now we have >50 minutes (almost half) of our minutes on defence being playing by three dudes who are really not that good at hockey...maybe even 70 minutes. Let's deal with that first before we try to marginally upgrade our 2C...by adding a third/fourth line winger....Jebus.

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#30 TonyT
February 06 2014, 12:47PM
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I'm really torn on this Gagner deal. Do I think Gagner for Clifford is a good trade? No, that's a loss hands down. However, if that's the best (or only deal) out there, will this team ever be in a position where Gagner is traded for similiar value? I'd argue and the past four seasons (outside of that 8 pt night) have displayed that the answer is no. The question for me then becomes are the Oilers a better team with or without Gagner? As currently constructed, I'd argue the team (outside of trading from the top line) is not better with Gagner.

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#31 Ari Gold
February 06 2014, 09:24PM
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Scribbles is good.

Gagner needs to go, no matter the return. Clifford and a 2nd rounder would be nice with Arco ready to take his spot. Gagner is over-valued in this article. He got big minutes with a team that refuses to play defense. That 8 point game was an enigma. His performance as a 2C is terrible.

Oilers are getting heavily out-shot and thus have terrible puck possession numbers. Contenders don't do that.

This will likely get worse before it gets better.

Eakins needs to go. Just watch the Seahawks rally around Pete Carroll. Think that'd happen in Etown?

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#32 Old Retired Guy (A.K.A. Die-Nasty)
February 06 2014, 07:04PM
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tabs wrote:

Yak has looked good, like to see him stay there for the rest of the season.

I agree. I mean really, why not?

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#33 brad
February 06 2014, 01:26PM
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Clifford alone for Gagner is not worth it but all the rumors say Clifford + for Gagner, that could quickly become worth it. Add center Dwight King and Dman Jake Muzzin and it is a deal we maybe couldn't say no to.

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#34 Duke
February 06 2014, 02:29PM
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Lochenzo wrote:

Sometimes the best trade you make is the one that you don't make. Hmmm, wonder who said that?

Gagner would make a more than competent top 6 winger if let's say, Jordan Eberle got dealt for that top 2 Dman that we've been searching for like forever.

I'll tell you who said it.

Tambellini, on several occasions.

Chant it like a mantra.

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#35 Serious Gord
February 06 2014, 02:34PM
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Lochenzo wrote:

Sometimes the best trade you make is the one that you don't make. Hmmm, wonder who said that?

Gagner would make a more than competent top 6 winger if let's say, Jordan Eberle got dealt for that top 2 Dman that we've been searching for like forever.

Gagner is as ill-fitted to being a winger as hall is to being a centre. Its been tried several times and fails with out fail.

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#36 Fresh Mess
February 06 2014, 02:37PM
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Gagner basically has negative value for the Oilers right now. I would have no problem with Clifford +pick or King straight across as long as the Oilers don't pick up any of Sam's contract. Just ditching Gagner's contract with out having to take anything else back would almost be a positive for the Oilers right now.

Fallon is annoying as hell. Tries to be too cutesy. The constant singing and dancing gets old. A show for women who like Ellen and Glee.

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#37 fasteddy
February 06 2014, 04:03PM
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You folks are hilarious, you want Gagner to retire and work at Home Depot one minute, and then when there's speculation he may be traded the management are idiots for not getting enough. Maybe time to re-evaluate your lives when the sky is falling no matter what happens.

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#38 Old Retired Guy (A.K.A. Die-Nasty)
February 06 2014, 06:28PM
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Nash looks invisible in this game.

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#39 Abby Oil
February 06 2014, 09:40PM
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@Ari Gold

I'm sure if we were celebrating a Cup win down Whyte Ave, yes the Oilers would be rallying around Eakins. Also kind of silly to compare the Seahawks and Carroll against the Oilers and Eakins at this time. Is it not?

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#40 bazmagoo
February 06 2014, 01:24PM
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In my opinion I'd trade Gags for a signed King with the Oil keeping half of the difference between King's extension and Gagner's salary. Or Gagner for Clifford if no salary is retained. We've been saying it for years now, the Oilers have too many of the same type of player. Shake up the mix and get tougher.

We can't have 2 wingers on that 2nd line who barely play defence with a centre who also barely plays defence. It just doesn't work. It's not about Gagner hate, it's about the make up of the team.

Sign a UFA, give Ladner and Arco the chance to battle for those minutes, anything. But right now the team mix isn't working, so change is needed. Addition through substraction, sorry Gags but you got go!

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#41 They're $hittie
February 06 2014, 01:55PM
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@TonyT

Granted he has had a bad year.

When you say they cant win with him and RNH do you mean the cup? If so we arent even in the playoffs so why is winning the cup the next step. Gagners value may be low right now and that is why it is stupid to trade him. Get some competant Dman, raise gagners value, wait until we near competitveness and sell high.

Trading Gagner for Clifford is a huge step back.

Can we also say we cant win with both Yak and Eberle on the team?

If these guys were all three years older, had some competent d, and average goaltending there is no reasons they couldnt be competitive with RNH and Gagner. Maybe not top tier but we need to be decent first.

Trading Gagner for a lesser player when this team has no center depth, defense and the season is a wash does nothing to improve the team.

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#42 Old Retired Guy (A.K.A. Die-Nasty)
February 06 2014, 06:45PM
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Reg Dunlop wrote:

Gagner's drop pass illustrates reason 38 of 52 why he needs to go.

I find myself enjoying the game watching Scrivens, Marincin, Nuge and Hall stealing pucks, Perron with a 30 ft backhand off the crossbar, etc. Then Gagner does his thing and I cringe. BUZZKILL.

(Yes..it's partly my built in bias.)

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#43 Old Retired Guy (A.K.A. Die-Nasty)
February 06 2014, 07:58PM
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Team Sweden loses one Sedin for Olympics.

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#44 The Soup Fascist
February 06 2014, 08:00PM
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Old Retired Guy (A.K.A. Die-Nasty) wrote:

Team Sweden loses one Sedin for Olympics.

Danny boy is half as effective w/o Hank than with him. Whole is greater than the sum of the parts ... And all that.

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#45 Old Retired Guy (A.K.A. Die-Nasty)
February 06 2014, 08:35PM
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The Soup Fascist wrote:

Is That Nick Kyprios your local donair restaurant owner?

'Cause Nick Kypreos from Sportsnet hasn't tweeted for 6 hours and pretty sure nothing official happens unless it is on Twitter.

That's just silly Soupy....the Gretzky trade wasn't even on Twitter.

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#46 Old Retired Guy (A.K.A. Die-Nasty)
February 06 2014, 09:49PM
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Gagner and our 2014 first round pick to Florida for Aleksander Barkov.

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#47 ubermiguel
February 06 2014, 01:13PM
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I did some quick number crunching with all the teams in the NHL this year. I looked at the correlation between wins and other stats. The closer to 1, the more the stats move together and there’s a strong chance they are related.

Winning% and shots per game: 0.51

Winning% and shots against per game: 0.46

Winning% and shot differential: 0.63

So it is safe to say a team wins more if they maximize the shots for and minimize the shots against. You correctly identified that the sample size of 5 games and one Leafs team is too small to draw any conclusions.

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#48 Spoils
February 06 2014, 03:03PM
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classic strategy - let the other team get tired from beating on you.

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#49 Brad
February 06 2014, 03:42PM
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After 3 #1 picks + + Oilers are going backwards.

Horrible organization.

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#50 They're $hittie
February 06 2014, 04:50PM
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TonyT wrote:

When I say it, I mean the Cup (this isn't Vancouver). The owner and management didn't decide the scorched earth route just for the end goal of making the playoffs. I also agree that the team can't win with Yak and Eberle, if you believe that this team is one Chris Pronger away from the playoffs than I strongly disagree. As previously discussed in every blog on this site for the past little while the top 6 is not balanced and do I believe a few years of seasoning will make them a better team? Maybe, when Getzlaf, Perry, Kopitar, Brown, Thornton, Burns, Doan, Hanzal, Sedin, Kesler all retire or get up and switch divisions. Again, I am not advocating for this trade, however if that is the only offer on the table I would at the very least consider it given that I don't believe that top 6 wins the Cup, makes the playoffs, or gets out of the draft lottery even with three years more experience.

I get you. But trading Gagner just to make a trade hurts us it doesnt help us. Yes there are defensive liabilities but until 2lc is filled he is your best option at this position. Trading for a 4RW leaves us with another large hole. With the Cap going up his salary wont bother us. Keeping him and putting him on wing would help with center depth in case of injury.

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