GDB 59.0: A NEW FORMULA

Jason Gregor
February 06 2014 12:35PM

In theory, outshooting the opposition will increase your chances of success, but for short windows that isn't always the case. The Oilers are 4-3-1 in their last eight games. In the five games they picked up at least one point they were out shot 204-124. They gave up 16 more shots per game (40.8-24.8), but they got nine of a possible ten points.

In the three losses they outshot their opponents twice, 58-56, leaving the loss to Boston as the only game where getting outshot meant a loss.

The Oilers are bucking the shooting trend lately and seeing success, so maybe they should continue to do so, considering how well it has worked for the Toronto Maple Leafs.

For the past two seasons the Maple Leafs have continually been outshot, yet they win more than they lose, much to the chagrin of those who believe strongly in Corsi. Outshooting the opponents increases your chances of winning, unless you are the Maple Leafs.

In 58 games this season the Leafs have outshot their opponents a measly nine times and once they were tied in shots. In those ten games, the Leafs are 5-5. In the 48 games they've been outshot they are 25-17-6. For reasons unexplained their chance of success increases when they get outshot.

In 48 games last year they fired more shots than their opponent 11 times, but they had a losing record, 5-6, in those games. During the 37 games that they were outshot they went 21-11-5. Our friend Cam Charron over at Leafsnation is constantly befuddled and in awe of the trend setting Maple Leafs.

During their last 106 games they've been outshot, or tied, with the opposition 21 times. They picked up 20 points.
They were outshot in the other 85 games but they skated away with a total of 103 points.

They even continued that trend in the playoffs. They lost both games where they outshot the Bruins, but went 3-2 in the game the Bruins fired more pucks on goal.

The Oilers have two former Maple Leafs coaches on their bench, and now they have Ben Scrivens and Mark Fraser in the lineup. Maybe the Oilers are trying to become the Maple Leafs of the west; buck the shooting trend and win.

I know it is an incredibly small sample size, and the Oilers don't have a 47-year Stanley Cup drought to counter their lucky streak, but they do have the longest active streak, 8 years, with no playoffs and their Cup drought is just over half as long as the Leafs, 24. Could a get-out-shot-and-win strategy really be that bad of an idea?

I don't see why not. What's the worst thing that could happen? They stay in 29th place.

All joking aside, the Oilers have won four of their last five and the players, coaches and fans should take an ugly win over a "solid effort" loss any day. 

Seriously though, would you really care if the Oilers kept getting outshot, but went 46-28-11?

RANGERS...

The Rangers are one of those ~ boring ~ teams that consistently outshot their opponents on home ice. In 30 home games, the Rangers have only been oushot five times; however, they are only 14-13-3 at Madison Square Gardens.

Tonight could be the perfect storm for the Oilers. They face a team that likes to outshoot their opponents, but has limited success when they do it. The Rangers are 10-10-1 when firing more shots, 0-2-1 when tied in shots and 4-2 when they get outshot at MSG.

If you are playing the odds, then the Oilers game plan should be to let the Rangers outshoot them.

That might not be that difficult considering the Rangers are playing very well lately, 11-4-1 in 2014, and they are starting to feel comfortable under Alain Vigneaut. The Rangers are playing an up-tempo, fast-paced, aggressive game and it seems to mesh well with their personnel.

LINEUP....

Hall-RNH-Yakupov
Perron-Gagner-Eberle
Hendricks-Gordon-Hemsky
Gazdic-Smyth-Jones

Marincin-Petry
N.Schultz-J.Schultz
Fraser-Ference

Scrivens

Scrivens gets his 2nd start of the season at MSG. He made 37 saves in a 1-0 victory on November 17th as a member of the Kings, and he'll look to remain perfect against the Rangers.

Eberle and Yakupov have switched lines so fans get to see a line of all 1st overall picks playing together. Yakupov and Gagner have struggled as a duo, so trying something else makes sense. Jones replaces Joensuu and the defence stays the same.

QUICK HITS...

  • The Oilers and Rangers have almost identical offensive production. The Rangers are 18th in the NHL with 2.58 goals per game, while the Oilers are 19th at 2.55. The difference is goals against. The Rangers are 10th at 2.44 while the Oilers are 30th at 3.34.
     
  • The Oilers have allowed 55 more goals than the Rangers. The Oilers need a good start. They've given up the most goals in the first period, 61, while New York has had great starts in their recent 7-2 hot streak. The Rangers have scored 9 goals in the first period during those seven wins. They have 34 first period goals in their other 50 games combined.
     
  • I like Kyle Clifford as a player. I think he could help the team, but if the Oilers trade Sam Gagner for him and a pick, they will lose the trade. The pick likely will be a 2nd rounder at best, and 15% of 2nd round picks play more than 200 games. The chances of that pick panning out are slim. I understand Gagner has limitations, and his cap hit doesn't help things, but if the Oilers have to eat half or a bit less of his salary, and only get Clifford and a maybe in return, it will be hard to win that trade.

    Clifford did score 28 goals and 57 points in 58 games as a 19-year-old in the OHL, so he does have skill; however, he has 22 goals and 45 points in 253 NHL games. I know he's played essentially on the 4th line, moonlighting a bit on the 3rd and 2nd, but he would need to become one of the biggest surprises ever to become a top-six forward. I realize he would be a complimentary guy and playing with Hall, RNH or Eberle would give him more opportunities to score, but it would still be almost impossible for him to suddenly become a 40-point player.

    Last year, I wrote I'd have offer sheeted him for $1-1.5 million, because the Kings didn't have much cap space, so I do believe he would help, but not at the cost of Gagner and half of Gagner's salary.
     
  • I've said and written in the past I would sacrifice a small forward with 30-goal potential for a bigger body, who is a proven 20-goal man, but who bangs, crashes and battles. But you can't trade a 45-point player for Clifford. His best season was last year 7-7-14 in 48 games, and if you prorate he'd be a 23-point player in 82 games. I have no problem if the Oilers move a skill forward for a big body with a bit less skill, but not half the offensive production.
     
  • Nice to see Marty St.Louis make Team Canada, but I'm curious if he plays or is the 14th forward. Is Matt Duchene still the 14th guy, because he is young, or does he move up and now St.Louis is the extra body? I'm curious to see how Mike Babcock handles that situation.
     
  • Jimmy Fallon is way better than Jay Leno. The tonight show will be much better with Fallon.

TONIGHT...

***Female readers always ask why I only post pictures of attractive women, so to be fair here you go ladies. The best looking man in the NHL.***

GAME DAY PREDICTION: This is a low scoring affair, and the Oilers continue to buck the shooting trend with a 2-1 victory. Gagner scores just to add fuel to the trade speculation.

OBVIOUS GAME DAY PREDICTION: The Rangers outshoot the Oilers. Scrivens has faced an average of 39 shots in his five starts with the Oilers, but tonight he gets an "easier" night facing only 36.

NOT-SO-OBVIOUS GAME DAY PREDICTION: Most fans are more concerned with Gagner trade talk than that game, and they should be. Game 59 in another losing season isn't as juicy as trade rumours. The next 24 hours -- trade freeze starts tomorrow at 1 p.m. MST -- will be fun, but likely not as interesting as the stretch from February 24th to the March 05th trade deadline.

RECENTLY BY JASON GREGOR 

Ddf3e2ba09069c465299f3c416e43eae
One of Canada's most versatile sports personalities. Jason hosts The Jason Gregor Show, weekdays from 2 to 6 p.m., on TSN 1260, and he writes a column every Monday in the Edmonton Journal. You can follow him on Twitter at twitter.com/JasonGregor
Avatar
#101 Serious Gord
February 06 2014, 02:28PM
Trash it!
9
trashes
Cheers
1
cheers

GDP: Oil lose 5-2 Nash is a beast and hopefully Hall takes notes...

Avatar
#102 Blucifer Copperballs
February 06 2014, 02:43PM
Trash it!
1
trashes
Cheers
1
cheers
Wigswag wrote:

It would be nice to know if the wins where they were outshot are come from behind wins or sit on a lead wins.

Interesting. That really would be a great factor to include in the stats.

I would say that no oiler on this years team would have the gall or nerve to "sit" on a lead after maybe game 3 of this season, and they have had some high scoring games this year, so i dont think its sitting on a lead at all.

But that would be an interesting scope to view the shooting stats thru, for any team.

Avatar
#103 S cottV
February 06 2014, 02:52PM
Trash it!
1
trashes
Cheers
1
cheers

If a given team has the right d zone system and executes it well, you would be surprised at how much time can be spent in your own zone - giving up little else than low scoring chance shots.

The kind of system I am talking about would be the opposite of the swarm. Swarm - forces the opposition attack into a turnover, almost like offense on defence. Done properly - you get the forced turnover and move out of your zone on offence. Done improperly - you give up glaring scoring chances.

A more traditional zone coverage system focuses more on patient positioning and taking a turnover when it is more easily or naturally presented to you. Done properly the offence runs out of options or get's impatient - making a high risk offensive move that turns into an easy turnover. Or - they throw the puck on net from an outside position with no damage done. Done properly - you can give up a fair number of outside shots but you rarely give up glaring scoring chances.

To pull it off, you need execution, good goaltending, a d corp that can command things around the net and strong low support centremen that know what they are doing in their own end.

Oilers don't have much of the above, so getting outshot on a consistent basis is probably best avoided...

Avatar
#104 TonyT
February 06 2014, 03:09PM
Trash it!
1
trashes
Cheers
1
cheers

@They're $hittie

When I say it, I mean the Cup (this isn't Vancouver). The owner and management didn't decide the scorched earth route just for the end goal of making the playoffs. I also agree that the team can't win with Yak and Eberle, if you believe that this team is one Chris Pronger away from the playoffs than I strongly disagree. As previously discussed in every blog on this site for the past little while the top 6 is not balanced and do I believe a few years of seasoning will make them a better team? Maybe, when Getzlaf, Perry, Kopitar, Brown, Thornton, Burns, Doan, Hanzal, Sedin, Kesler all retire or get up and switch divisions. Again, I am not advocating for this trade, however if that is the only offer on the table I would at the very least consider it given that I don't believe that top 6 wins the Cup, makes the playoffs, or gets out of the draft lottery even with three years more experience.

Avatar
#105 They're $hittie
February 06 2014, 04:56PM
Trash it!
19
trashes
Cheers
1
cheers
NJ wrote:

Gagner is a "2B" center. Arcobello is an unproven 2B. Trading Gagner for almost nothing won't help us. It's like watching Souray walk for nothing. We can talk all day about getting rid of the guy but the facts are nobody is gonna fill that spot, unless MacT is looking to the draft for that... And we know how that's worked so far for us right?

I wonder if we could get McKinnon (sp?) out of Colorado for Gagner and Eberle. We eat some of Gagner's contract... But RNH and McKinnon down the middle looks better than our current situation, Hemmer moves us for Eberle and we dump all sorts of salary to sign Nate long term! Just a thought.

Also ... Yak for Jones = win. I'd even go as far as Eberle for Jones. Nashville needs scoring, Jones IS a future #1 D.

Lastly: I think Gagner's NTC, when it kicks in, is fluff. Who wouldn't waive it to get out of Edmonton. Cold hard sucky FACT.

With oilers management at the wheel probably easier to tank for mcdavid, than to move out of the bottom 5. just terrible.

Trade Eberle and Klefbom + pick for a (pietrangelo) type

Move Gagner to RW or trade plus pick for Simmonds

Hall-Mcdavid-Yak Perron-Nuge-Gagner ?????-Gordon-????? ?????-??????-?????

(pietrangelo type)-Nurse Ekblad-Petry Marancin-Schultz Gernat

Much better than now.

We can say we want to win now and no more losing, but this is the oilers do you see any winning on the horizon?

sooooooo frustrating as a 7 year season ticket holder to watch this.

Avatar
#106 RexHolez
February 06 2014, 05:09PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
1
cheers
Serious Gord wrote:

Some nobody in NYR net tonight. Not sure of 5-2 rangers will be the result...

So you think the oilers will lose 5-3?

Avatar
#107 NJ
February 06 2014, 05:30PM
Trash it!
1
trashes
Cheers
1
cheers
Jordan Nugent-Hallkins wrote:

As much as I would love Mackinnon on the Oilers, I don't see the Avs trading him any time soon.

That may be true. I don't know why Sakic would unless he feels that Eberle fits better short and wants the experience. Gagner would fill the spot (3c) that Mackinnon currently fills.

Anyhow, I suppose one can dream. I've been dreaming of winning side I loved to Etown in 99.... Couple more decades won't hurt.

/facepalm

Avatar
#108 Oilerz4life
February 06 2014, 07:16PM
Trash it!
8
trashes
Cheers
1
cheers

That line-up is pretty weak. The bottom six was stronger with Hendricks-Gordon-Jones, Gazdic-Smyth-Joensuu. That's part of the pussy factor anyway.

Avatar
#109 Old Retired Guy (A.K.A. Die-Nasty)
February 06 2014, 11:14PM
Trash it!
1
trashes
Cheers
1
cheers
Arius Mumin wrote:

There is a Big Euro Rake?

No idea! I just thought because Marincin is 6'5" and you used Lil....that there must be already be a big one somewhere.

Anyway, Euro Rake is a very cool very original nickname for Marincin!

Avatar
#110 Serious Gord
February 06 2014, 02:27PM
Trash it!
3
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers

Toronto succeeds despite the GA number being higher than the GF number for two main reasons: Kessel and a couple of the other primary scorers are some of the very best shots in the league. They shoot - they score...

And they have some of the very best goaltending in the league.

EDM has neither of those attributes and thus over the long haul will lose more than they win.

Avatar
#111 Spoils
February 06 2014, 03:08PM
Trash it!
2
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers

I don't think the oil should be trading for picks, they should be trading their picks -

Gagner + our 1st overall next year = what?

Gagner + Pitlick/Lander/Simpson + our 2nd pick = what?

how else do we get a true blue big strong #2C that can take on Smyth's tough blue paint minutes, or a #1 pairing D?

Avatar
#112 jack
February 06 2014, 03:48PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers

it will probably be garner and someone for clifford green and someone else good, green when in the lineup, la has only won a few games, but we will probably have to take salary back

Avatar
#113 jack
February 06 2014, 03:49PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers

sorry gagner (spelling)

Avatar
#114 DrunkGuyTy
February 06 2014, 04:11PM
Trash it!
2
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers

He looks as much like a hockey player as I look like an olympic gymnast. He probably washes the smell out of his equipment regularly and smiles when they take team pictures too. pfft...goalies

Avatar
#115 ?
February 06 2014, 04:26PM
Trash it!
10
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers

Oilers lose tonight, 5-2. Richards with a pair, Yahoo (ya kupov, sounds like a cool nickname to me) scores one off a wrist shot fivehole on the King.

Avatar
#116 Serious Gord
February 06 2014, 05:02PM
Trash it!
3
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers

Some nobody in NYR net tonight. Not sure of 5-2 rangers will be the result...

Avatar
#117 Serious Gord
February 06 2014, 05:18PM
Trash it!
1
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers
RexHolez wrote:

So you think the oilers will lose 5-3?

5-4 in ot.

Avatar
#118 Arius Mumin
February 06 2014, 11:03PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers

@Old Retired Guy (A.K.A. Die-Nasty)

There is a Big Euro Rake?

Avatar
#119 Arius Mumin
February 06 2014, 11:32PM
Trash it!
2
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers
Old Retired Guy (A.K.A. Die-Nasty) wrote:

No idea! I just thought because Marincin is 6'5" and you used Lil....that there must be already be a big one somewhere.

Anyway, Euro Rake is a very cool very original nickname for Marincin!

He's a young pup compared to Pronger, a lil' guy.

Plus it rolls off the tongue funny.

Comments are closed for this article.