GDB 60.0: TO BACK OR NOT TO BACK

Jason Gregor
February 07 2014 01:15PM

Ilya Bryzgalov will start tonight in New Jersey. The stats suggest it makes sense to start him instead of going back-to-back with Ben Scrivens, but considering the Oilers are winning by getting out shot, I wonder if combining that along with going back to Scrivens would guarantee a win.

We'll never know, but it is good to look at the possibilities.

I looked at the top-ten goalie leaders in wins to see how many times they played back-to-back and how they fared:

Goalie...           result           SV%                    saves
Fleury                 L                 .902             stopped 18 of 21
Niemi                 W               .903              stopped 28 of 31
Varlamov           W               .926              stopped 25 of 27
Bishop               W               .941             stopped 48 of 51 (played night before allowed 5 goals)
Bishop               W               .933             stopped 28 of 30
Rask                  L                 .750             stopped 9 of 12 and was pulled.
Rask                  W                .977             stopped 43 of 44
Rask                  W                .915             stopped 21 of 23
Price                  L                 .943             stopped 33 of 35 (had exact same stats night before)
Price                  L                 .846             stopped 22 of 26 (had identical SV% and GAA night before)
Hiller                 W                1.000           stopped 22 of 22
Hiller                 W                 .955            stopped 42 of 44
Mason              W                 .944            stopped 34 of 36
Crawford          W                .935             stopped 29 of 31
Crawford          W                .958             stopped 23 of 24 (allowed 5 goals the previous night)
Crawford          W                .826             stopped 19 of 23 (defeated the Oilers)
CrawFord        OTL             .900             stopped 27 of 30

Most coaches don't go back-to-back very often, but in these 17 instances with the top goalies their combined record was 12-4-1 with a .917 SV%.

It should be noted that Price's two back-to-back situations came on January 25th and February 2nd. He had been struggling so Michel Therrien went against the grain to try and get him out of a funk. It was odd to see Price have the exact same stats in the first and second games. In the January sets he was bad on both nights and lost both games, but on February 1st and 2nd he had .944 and .943 SV% on consecutive nights, and allowed only two goals both nights.

Jon Cooper went back to Bishop after he allowed five goals the night before. He wanted his starter to bounce back and he did with a huge 48 save performance. Joel Quenneville did the same thing with Crawford this year and he rewarded his coach with a strong effort the second night.

Eric T from NHLnumbers.com wrote a very indepth piece on the drop in SV% on the second night of back-to-backs, so I understand why Eakins is going with Bryzgalov, but the above numbers show that winning teams will go with their starter a few times a year on consecutive nights. This year they have had success doing it, and I'm sure it helps when you are on a good team, but it shows that coaches do go with gut feel sometimes and won't always play the odds.

Scrivens has the highest SV%, .937, amongst goalie who has started 20+ games, and the only time he played back-to-back this year he was perfect. He stopped all 26 shots in a 2-0 Kings victory, and two days later he shutout the Rangers as well.

After beating the Rangers again last night, I wouldn't have had an issue at all if Eakins went back to Scrivens.

Sometimes you have to go against the odds, just like I predicted in yesterday's GDP and OGDP. That might have been my best prediction ever.

GAME DAY PREDICTION: This is a low scoring affair, and the Oilers continue to buck the shooting trend with a 2-1 victory. Gagner scores just to add fuel to the trade speculation. 

OBVIOUS GAME DAY PREDICTION: The Rangers outshoot the Oilers. Scrivens has faced an average of 39 shots in his five starts with the Oilers, but tonight he gets an "easier" night facing only 36. 

LINEUP....

Hall-RNH-Yakupov
Perron-Gagner-Eberle
Hendricks-Gordon-Hemsky
Gazdic-Smyth-Jones

Marincin-Petry
N.Schultz-J.Schultz
Fraser-Ference

Bryzgalov

The Oilers didn't skate this morning, but Jack Michaels hinted there would be one forward change. Maybe it is simply Joensuu back in for Jones or possibly something else. Likely on the 4th line, unless someone in the top-nine got banged up last night.

QUICK HITS...

  • A rare twitter mistake by Gene Principe last night when he jumped the gun tweeting out that Ryan Smyth was now top-100 in goals. Smyth scored his 384th goal last night, but Patrick Elias has scored four in the last two weeks and he sits 100th with 386. 
  • Alex Ovechkin scored his 40th goal of the seaon last night, and he is on pace to get 50 for the 5th time in his career, and when he does he will join a very select group of players who have scored 50 goals five times.

    Wayne Gretzky and Mike Bossy did it 9 times.
    Guy Lafleur, Marcel Dionne and Mario Lemieux did it 6 times.
    Bobby Hull, Phil Esposito, Steve Yzerman, Brett Hull and Pavel Bure did it 5 times.
     
  • Since 2005/2006 there has been 17 occasions where a player scored 50 goals.
    Ovechkin has done it 4 times.
    Steven Stamkos, Ilya Kovalchuk and Dany Heatley did it twice.
    Jonathan Cheechoo, Jaromir Jagr, Jarome Iginla, Vincent Lecavalier, Sidney Crosby, Corey Perry and Evgeni Malkin did it once.
     
  • Despite playing in an era where goals are hard to come by Ovechkin has still produced, and at a rate better than everyone except Steven Stamkos. He has a realistic shot to become only the 3rd player in NHL history to have seven 50-goal seasons. I hope he gets there.
     
  • I've had many fans text the show and I've seen some people write how Nail Yakupov's one-timer is similar to Ovechkin. Yakupov shoots the puck hard, but he isn't close to the goal scorer Oveckhin is. That isn't a knock on Yakupov, because Ovie is one of the greatest goal scorers the NHL has ever seen , but stop comparing the two. They aren't close. Ovechkin is much better at finding an open spot, plus his shot is much harder. He regularly beats goalies from above the hash marks.
     
  • Here is a shot chart of Nail Yakupov (goals in red) courtesy of somekindofninja.com.  You will notice that Yakupov has one goal from outside the top of the circles. Now look at Ovechkin's shot and goal chart. He has 12 goals from outside the top of the circle. To beat today's goalies from that far out you need a heavy shot and accuracy.
     
  • That being said, I liked how Yakupov found the soft spot in the high slot last night, and buried the game winner. It was a great pass from Gagner, but one of the most important parts of being a good goal scorer is finding the open spots and Yakupov found it at the most important time of the game. He has a very good shot and he should use it more, but let's stop comparing him to Ovechkin. It is unfair to both of them.
     
  • Gagner's assist is why you can't trade him for spare parts. He has very good offensive abilities. I know he doesn't show them all the time -- consistency is what separates 50-point players from 80-point guys -- but he has great skill. If MacTavish trades him, he needs to get a decent return.

TONIGHT...

GAME DAY PREDICTION: The Oilers are in the midst of their best stretch of the season, and they'll head into the break on a high after a 3-2 win over the Devils.

OBVIOUS GAME DAY PREDICTION: The Oilers will continue on their successful get-out-shot-but-win streak, but tonight they allow fewer shots than usual getting out shot 29-26.

NOT-SO-OBVIOUS GAME DAY PREDICTION: The ageless wonder Jaromir Jagr scores a pair of goals giving him 19 on the season, but 700 in his career. He heads to the Olympics having scored 50 points. Unreal.

RECENTLY BY JASON GREGOR 

Ddf3e2ba09069c465299f3c416e43eae
One of Canada's most versatile sports personalities. Jason hosts The Jason Gregor Show, weekdays from 2 to 6 p.m., on TSN 1260, and he writes a column every Monday in the Edmonton Journal. You can follow him on Twitter at twitter.com/JasonGregor
Avatar
#1 Jordanzza
February 07 2014, 01:31PM
Trash it!
75
trashes
Cheers
7
cheers

To EDM: Carter and Brown To LA: Gagner, Hemsky*, Arcobello, Klefbom and/or Lander

http://fans.oilers.nhl.com/community/topic/15100-la-kings-cap-crunch-trade-relief/

Avatar
#2 Robin Brownlee
February 07 2014, 01:36PM
Trash it!
24
trashes
Cheers
11
cheers

Your predictions should be framed - final score and exact number of shots. No matter what Struddy and everybody else says, you're a very smart man.

Avatar
#4 Quicksilver ballet
February 07 2014, 03:48PM
Trash it!
15
trashes
Cheers
2
cheers

I'd be celebrating that prediction as well, after that Clarkson for Yakupov suggestion. 5-2 Jersey with Eakins starting the wrong goalie tonight.

All in for Ekblad. Might as well grab McDavid to while we're wandering in this desert.

Not at all concerned with the longevity of said suckage. Management drove this franchise face first into the mud, so what's another year of being the laughing stock if McDavid can be had. The pride in those who run this hockey club left long ago. Management is obviously all right with it.

Avatar
#5 Quicksilver ballet
February 07 2014, 04:42PM
Trash it!
12
trashes
Cheers
6
cheers

I'd be celebrating that prediction as well, after that Clarkson for Yakupov suggestion. 5-2 Jersey with Eakins starting the wrong goalie tonight.

All in for Ekblad. Might as well grab McDavid too while we're wandering in this desert.

Not at all concerned with the longevity of said suckage. Management drove this franchise face first into the mud, so what's another year of being the laughing stock if McDavid can be had. The pride in those who run this hockey club left long ago. Management is obviously all right with it. It's where this losing culture begins.

Avatar
#6 DSF
February 07 2014, 06:39PM
Trash it!
11
trashes
Cheers
3
cheers
dougtheslug wrote:

Wow Oilers won 13 out of 15 faceoffs in the first period. At least one source of continuous frustration from last year seems to have been dealt with

They're 21st in the league.

Last season they were 24th.

Avatar
#7 West
February 07 2014, 01:44PM
Trash it!
10
trashes
Cheers
10
cheers
Jordanzza wrote:

To EDM: Carter and Brown To LA: Gagner, Hemsky*, Arcobello, Klefbom and/or Lander

http://fans.oilers.nhl.com/community/topic/15100-la-kings-cap-crunch-trade-relief/

Trading Klefbom at this point is bordering on insane.

Avatar
#8 THRNHJE
February 07 2014, 02:06PM
Trash it!
8
trashes
Cheers
6
cheers

GDP: Bryz shows again that he is incosistent, and our offense shows another flash of what it can do. Oil win 6-4

OGDP: Jaromir is an uncontrollable beast, as per his usual outings vs. the Oilers.

NSOGDP: Gagner scores a hat trick, and people on oilers blogs everywhere find a defensive mistake he made and shout 'but do you see how he is a defensive liability? He was only 48% on the dot!'

Avatar
#9 Keg on Legs
February 07 2014, 01:50PM
Trash it!
7
trashes
Cheers
3
cheers

Let me be the fist to say, go back to Scrivens again

Avatar
#10 Zarny
February 07 2014, 05:23PM
Trash it!
7
trashes
Cheers
5
cheers

Yakupov will never be Ovechkin, but he needs to learn how to hit the gaps at the right time like Ovi.

And he needs to learn how to play off his linemates and quit thinking he can beat opponents 1 on 1. It's not junior anymore.

Avatar
#11 Reg Dunlop
February 07 2014, 06:53PM
Trash it!
7
trashes
Cheers
20
cheers

@DSF

Do my eyes deceive? A post from the dreaded DSF? Welcome back, brother.

Avatar
#12 james_dean
February 07 2014, 09:14PM
Trash it!
7
trashes
Cheers
1
cheers

Missed ya DSF !

Yours truly,

Pamela Handerson

Avatar
#13 Chainsawz
February 07 2014, 01:33PM
Trash it!
6
trashes
Cheers
1
cheers
Jordan Nugent-Hallkins wrote:

I started on the beer pretty early yesterday, I don't remember much of the game... How did the first overalls look skating together?

They looked like skating on ice made of beer then having the ice melt then drinking it.

Avatar
#14 pkam
February 07 2014, 02:22PM
Trash it!
6
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers
Jordan Nugent-Hallkins wrote:

I started on the beer pretty early yesterday, I don't remember much of the game... How did the first overalls look skating together?

If scoring goal is the measuring stick, they had accomplished nothing last night.

I believe Eakins put Gagner with Hall and Yak for one shift near the end of the game and the trio scored the GWG.

Avatar
#15 MacT
February 07 2014, 03:46PM
Trash it!
6
trashes
Cheers
5
cheers
#ThereGoesTheOilers wrote:

Hey Jason, you know Sochi has started right?

Here's a more appropriate GDB picture, courtesy of Jenna Blasman who is representing Canada in snowboarding:

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=743665548995097&set=a.743665158995136.1073741827.743664325661886&type=1&theater

He knows Sochi is underway, its just that his audience doesn't care about anything except Oilers hockey.

Avatar
#16 A-Mc
February 07 2014, 04:23PM
Trash it!
6
trashes
Cheers
5
cheers
MacT wrote:

I didnt mean this to be a slam.

Im actually just saying what Jason told me via text yesterday when I tried to bring up the topic of the Olympics instead of Gagner rumours. He said and I quote "yes our audience really wants to talk about team figure skating... I know what audience wants....it isn't team figure skating."

basically got blasted by trying to suggest there was more to talk about than the sad Oilers.

Well in that instance, i agree with him.

This fan doesnt give a rats Arse about team figure skating, canadian or otherwise. I care about hockey! And right now NHL hockey is still in session. In between the Oilers and Team Canada, we can talk about all the snowboarders, figure skaters or short track racers.. But once team canada laces up their skates, it's Back to hockey baby! WOOOOOOOooo =)

Avatar
#17 **
February 07 2014, 04:45PM
Trash it!
6
trashes
Cheers
4
cheers
Quicksilver ballet wrote:

I'd be celebrating that prediction as well, after that Clarkson for Yakupov suggestion. 5-2 Jersey with Eakins starting the wrong goalie tonight.

All in for Ekblad. Might as well grab McDavid too while we're wandering in this desert.

Not at all concerned with the longevity of said suckage. Management drove this franchise face first into the mud, so what's another year of being the laughing stock if McDavid can be had. The pride in those who run this hockey club left long ago. Management is obviously all right with it. It's where this losing culture begins.

McDavid was pretty underwhelming at the World Juniors.

Avatar
#18 tabs
February 07 2014, 09:55PM
Trash it!
6
trashes
Cheers
2
cheers
Jordan Nugent-Hallkins wrote:

Welcome back, DSF.

EDIT: unfortunately, it looks like you were right. About everything...

When it wasn't popular to agree or defend your posts, some of us did. I changed my handle to escape being banned again by a certain blogger.

Believe it or not but there's still guys here that would like Smyth re-signed over the summer and Gagner given more time to establish himself as a player.

Avatar
#19 Jordanzza
February 07 2014, 02:29PM
Trash it!
4
trashes
Cheers
2
cheers
oilerjed wrote:

did you really just quote the oilers fan blog for your trade proposal?

Yes, but not as a primary source to validate my comment here. I think it has merit and wanted to generate some discussion.

Avatar
#20 Jordanzza
February 07 2014, 02:51PM
Trash it!
4
trashes
Cheers
3
cheers
Clyde Frog wrote:

Are you adding Arcobello's totals into your calculation?

If so, why? Who are the King's pulling from their lineup to slot him in? At best he sits in the pressbox, he is the exact opposite of the player type the Kings have built their team around. At worst he goes straight to the AHL, neither situation would encourage anyone to include his point totals in the trade.

So we still end up with the Kings becoming demonstrably worse...

Saying I can't compare +/- is kind of silly... Look I did it, -31 to +7. Done. Compared, obvious loser. If you were looking at -2 to +2 sure you could look deeper into a ratio of shots etc to figure it out, but at a 38 goal spread it is safe to say which group isn't committed to defense.

If you really care though Brown and Carter have taken 332 shots so far this season to Gagner and Hemsky's 177...

On that note, you are taking 2 terrible defensive players who produce LESS than the people you are asking for and saying anybody in their right mind would accept that deal?!?

What is the point of DEPTH(lol? seriously) and CAP SPACE mid-season when you lose the core of your team and replace it with a 2nd liner who is struggling to find his game and a 3rd liner who can't crack the top six on the worst team in the NHL.

You understand that would be the equivalent of the Kings packing it in midseason for the futures of Lander, Klefbom and some cap space.

Sigh, the coolaid is strong with this one...

In 58 GP Brown has 10G and 6A for 0.28 P/PG In 41 GP Arcobello has 4G amd 14A for 0.44 P/PG

I'm not saying Brown is less of a player but on purely offensive numbers for this season, you cannot seriously think that Arco has zero trade value?

Avatar
#21 pkam
February 07 2014, 03:11PM
Trash it!
4
trashes
Cheers
2
cheers
Oil Is My Blood wrote:

26 comments to date, and not one about the beautiful woman in the jpg?? Shame, ON readers, shame

JG had pictures of prettier women in his previous GDB, but for the first time this year, the Oilers won 5 of their last 6 and have a decent chance to win another one tonight to make in 6 of the last 7.

If Oilers win, I couldn't care if there is picture of pretty woman in the GDB.

Avatar
#22 tabs
February 07 2014, 07:13PM
Trash it!
4
trashes
Cheers
11
cheers
DSF wrote:

They're 21st in the league.

Last season they were 24th.

Hey DSF, did you get banned?

Welcome back

Avatar
#23 DSF
February 07 2014, 09:06PM
Trash it!
4
trashes
Cheers
6
cheers
Jordan Nugent-Hallkins wrote:

Welcome back, DSF.

EDIT: unfortunately, it looks like you were right. About everything...

Thanks.

Avatar
#24 Jordan Nugent-Hallkins
February 07 2014, 01:28PM
Trash it!
3
trashes
Cheers
12
cheers

I started on the beer pretty early yesterday, I don't remember much of the game... How did the first overalls look skating together?

Avatar
#25 oilerman53
February 07 2014, 01:38PM
Trash it!
3
trashes
Cheers
3
cheers

Yak needs to be able to find those spaces in which he can get his shot away better. His biggest problem is his over excitement with the puck. The coaching staff should realize he can't be relied upon to lug the puck in. Maybe on a quick dump in and to best utilize him he needs to play on a line where his center and left wing can dish him the puck on the right side even the slot. Its up to him to be able to find these areas, the Oilers when and if they do trade Gagner should be looking for a big strong center to play with Yak for next year. Horcoff wasn't good at a lot of things but in the month where Yak scored 11 goals he played almost exclusively with Horcoff who would battle for the puck.

As for tonight the Devils will probably be having a nice long look at Hemsky. With the acquisition of Hendricks and the effectiveness of the third line with him there Hemsky's time here seems to be coming to an end. Kind of sad when you think of all the abuse he took at the hands of guys like Regehr and Kronwall and always bounced back up. This year he may get his chance to play with his buddies Jagr and Elias. Devils tonight 4-3.

Avatar
#26 Clyde Frog
February 07 2014, 01:45PM
Trash it!
3
trashes
Cheers
29
cheers
West wrote:

Trading Klefbom at this point is bordering on insane.

Expecting the Kings to give up 2 players from their core is completely over the line of insane....

Avatar
#27 Clyde Frog
February 07 2014, 02:15PM
Trash it!
3
trashes
Cheers
12
cheers
Jordanzza wrote:

What's insane is that the Kings are last in the West in G/G at 2.25, and would be DEAD last in the league if it weren't for the Sabres (1.82)

Doesn't matter, Carter is their 2nd leading scorer and Brown while having an off year is a proven 50+ pt player.

It's ridiculous, not to mention it doesn't actually provide them offense.

Your offering a team looking to contend 13 goals 35 assist, 48 pts and at a combined -31 along with prospects, for 26 goals 31 assist, 57 pts at a combined +7.

So you are making their current team worse and they get some prospects?

Carter's proven offensive upside is miles greater than any of those players...

Arcobello has no trade value, notwithstanding the fact giving up him AND Lander would leave us with 0 centres for depth...

How would this make any sense...

Shall I go on? Or should I just drink the coolaid and mindlessly click the props button?

Avatar
#28 Jordanzza
February 07 2014, 02:26PM
Trash it!
3
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers

@Clyde Frog

I don't know where you are getting your numbers. It is 66 points to 52 for Carter & Brown. Carter has no more upside. He's a proven 2C, but LA has Richards already.

You can't realistically compare the +/- of these players, which IMHO, has more to do with goaltending.

I haven't done the Corsi/Fenwick analysis yet. That would be more useful I think, adding up total NHL shots for players going both ways.

Did you even read the thread?

This is more about LA adding scoring/playmaking DEPTH and freeing CAP SPACE.

Avatar
#29 RexHolez
February 07 2014, 02:51PM
Trash it!
3
trashes
Cheers
18
cheers
Jason Gregor wrote:

Did you read the article? I said I understand why he is starting Bryz.

I showed proof that coaches go with their gut in back-to-back and they have had really good success. Pretty simple to see.

Also I didn't assume he would start Scrivens vs. Van or tonight, I said Eakins wouldn't, but I would. Understand the difference between an assumption and an opinion. :)

Jason. Did you read my post? I stated that that was essentially the same article you wrote a couple of weeks back on why your opinion would be to start Scrivens. I just pointed out your lack of creativity in the writing department.

The reality is, is that very few times in a back to back situation does one goalie start both games, unless that goalie is one of a select few elite goaltenders.

Avatar
#30 Rip van Winkle
February 07 2014, 02:55PM
Trash it!
3
trashes
Cheers
2
cheers
Oil Is My Blood wrote:

26 comments to date, and not one about the beautiful woman in the jpg?? Shame, ON readers, shame

meh, too much makeup!

Avatar
#31 Jordanzza
February 07 2014, 03:07PM
Trash it!
3
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers
Jordanzza wrote:

To EDM: Carter and Brown To LA: Gagner, Hemsky*, Arcobello, Klefbom and/or Lander

http://fans.oilers.nhl.com/community/topic/15100-la-kings-cap-crunch-trade-relief/

So I've added up the shots for per game, and I think that really reveals why LA would hesitate on this deal:

Brown/Carter [52 pts] combined for 332 shots in 107 GP (3.11)

To Gagner/Hemsky/Arcobello [66 pts] combined 247 shots in 138 GP (1.79)

That said Brown's better producing days seem to be behind him: http://kings.nhl.com/club/player.htm?id=8470606

... and if I were the Kings, at this point I'd rather have Hemmer + Gagner in my top 6 than him, and although he's undersized, Arco has made a case as well.

Avatar
#32 Nucleaic acid
February 07 2014, 03:48PM
Trash it!
3
trashes
Cheers
21
cheers

@Jason Gregor

Gregor, like your articles, but man are you a little b!tch when someone calls You out, right or wrong why do you even care? your supposed to be a professional writer, not a professional baby, let the comments generate, grow a pair

Avatar
#33 MacT
February 07 2014, 04:19PM
Trash it!
3
trashes
Cheers
11
cheers
#ThereGoesTheOilers wrote:

Given how disappointing this season has been, that's an incredibly sad statement. You would think this would be a welcome distraction.

Besides, you don't have to care about Sochi to appreciate that we have some very good looking Canadians over there right now.

I didnt mean this to be a slam.

Im actually just saying what Jason told me via text yesterday when I tried to bring up the topic of the Olympics instead of Gagner rumours. He said and I quote "yes our audience really wants to talk about team figure skating... I know what audience wants....it isn't team figure skating."

basically got blasted by trying to suggest there was more to talk about than the sad Oilers.

Avatar
#34 Zarny
February 07 2014, 05:13PM
Trash it!
3
trashes
Cheers
1
cheers
** wrote:

16 data points over the course of one season hardly "show that winning teams will go with their starter a few times a year on consecutive nights." Of the top 10 teams in the league this season, according to the data in this article, only 5 goalies have been used more than once in back to backs. Only four have a winning record, that's a success rate of 40%, even the data on this article, when interpreted right, supports going with a different goalie on back to backs.

No, actually if 4 out of 5 goalies who have been used more than once in back to backs have a winning record that's 80%.

If the other 5 teams have never played their goalies in back to backs you don't get to count them against the results of doing so.

Avatar
#35 **
February 07 2014, 05:13PM
Trash it!
3
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers
DisappointedFan wrote:

Pretty sure Crosby got 5 points in 6 games in his first WJC.

McDavid got 4points in 7, I don't think anyone should be going tossing "underwhelming" for a kid who should have been playing an age division below that.

the fact is he was underwhelming, and a good reason might be that, as you pint out, he was maybe in over his head in that tournament. No one is saying he won't be a superstar, don't get your panties in a bunch.

Avatar
#36 Zarny
February 07 2014, 05:54PM
Trash it!
3
trashes
Cheers
2
cheers
** wrote:

Gregor wrote: "I looked at the top-ten goalie leaders in wins to see how many times they played back-to-back and how they fared:".

Then he wrote: "...the above numbers show that winning teams will go with their starter a few times a year on consecutive nights.", the key phrase being "a few times".

So, he looked at 10 goalies (known a the sample size, from where all the results will come from), out of which five went back to back more than once (a few times), out of which 4 got a winning record. If my elementary school math is correct, 4 out of 10 is 40%. But if I messed that one up please feel free to correct me. "If the other 5 teams have never played their goalies in back to backs you don't get to count them against the results of doing so. " This is false, so it is irrelevant. All 10 goalies he looked at played for a different team, 9 of which played back to back, I don't know where you got that 5 teams never played their goalies in back to back. Or IF we are making random IF assumptions, then what IF unicorns played hockey, and what IF they puked rainbows?.

In conclusion, your argument is massively invalid.

Only 5 G played back to back "more than once"; of which 4 had a winning record. So 4 of 5 goalies who have played back to backs more than once have a winning record. 80%.

There were 17 instances where the top 10 G played back to back. Their record overall was 12-4-1. That's a 70.6% success rate overall.

Your 40% is a massively meaningless stat. 1 out of the 10 G never attempted playing a back to back so there's no attempt. It's neither success nor failure. You don't count it in a success rate. It's a non-attempt.

You didn't take Stats 101 did you.

Avatar
#37 Another1stpick
February 07 2014, 05:55PM
Trash it!
3
trashes
Cheers
4
cheers

@Nucleaic acid

Standing up for yourself isn't being a baby. I love that Gregor calls people out when they are making up things or flat out wrong.

Also, it is hard to take your opinion seriously with that bad of grammar. I'd listen to someone's opinion if they came up with precise, articulate and accurate points, but I wouldn't worry at all about someone who comes across as less than bright.

Avatar
#38 Cynic
February 07 2014, 06:02PM
Trash it!
3
trashes
Cheers
3
cheers

I always thought Gregor's show was one of the few places where "sports radio" meant more than just fapping over the Oilers ad nauseam. He even has that - I assume - paid segment with the dude who talks about fitness. I could see that going over the head of the average fat-ass Oiler fan.

Avatar
#39 tabs
February 07 2014, 06:56PM
Trash it!
3
trashes
Cheers
3
cheers
** wrote:

who knows

Thanks G Bear but what I posted was an opinion that could hardly be considered offensive.

This site is called Oilersnation where bloggers and fans share opinions and discuss all things hockey. When I post I'am not naive enough to believe everyone here will agree, FWIW my player assessment often differs from the masses.

I've seen enough posts that have been altered or deleted altogether to write this.

It's unsettling that my father, uncles and others of their age fought wars for our freedoms and liberties yet someone feels it necessary to censor posts simply because said person disagrees with someones opinion.

Avatar
#40 **
February 07 2014, 07:02PM
Trash it!
3
trashes
Cheers
9
cheers
DSF wrote:

They're 21st in the league.

Last season they were 24th.

The big D is back!

Avatar
#41 Rod from Viking
February 07 2014, 08:07PM
Trash it!
3
trashes
Cheers
9
cheers

Well one good thing about 3 weeks no Oiler games, no Kevin, Louie or Gene. I see DSF has got off his grounding and got his Mac back, I hope your posts don't make up 50% of the total on every article like it did last year.

Avatar
#42 TayLordBalls
February 07 2014, 01:44PM
Trash it!
2
trashes
Cheers
15
cheers

I used to walk into a room full of people and wonder if they liked me. Now I look around and wonder if I like them.

Go Oil

Avatar
#43 West
February 07 2014, 01:49PM
Trash it!
2
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers
Clyde Frog wrote:

Expecting the Kings to give up 2 players from their core is completely over the line of insane....

I agree, but I didn't notice who we were to get, just who we were going to give up.

Avatar
#44 oilerjed
February 07 2014, 01:52PM
Trash it!
2
trashes
Cheers
2
cheers
Clyde Frog wrote:

Expecting the Kings to give up 2 players from their core is completely over the line of insane....

I wonder, some reporters in LA are suggesting that if the Isles land Vanek Richards or Brown my become available. Im curious who besides Gagner is sent away. maybe some D prospects?

Edit: oops meant if the kings land vanek

Avatar
#45 S cottV
February 07 2014, 02:01PM
Trash it!
2
trashes
Cheers
4
cheers

Good to see a different look on the first two lines.

Yak has a reasonable chance at having success with RNH and Hall.

While Gagner got an assist on Yak's goal, it was Hall's bull work that made it possible - not to take anything away from Gagner on that particular play.

Understandable that Yak looked a little disjointed at times, trying to get used to new linemates and visa versa. Will be interesting to see if it gets better tonight.

I think Yak did better with RNH and Hall vs what Gagner looked like with Eberle and Perron. Nice play by Gagner on the Yak goal, but he was the weakest link on the Ranger goal. Gagner should not have skated ahead of an uncertain puck possession at the half boards. He vacated the middle of the ice and otherwise would have been a safety valve on the turnover. Just doesn't get it - in his own end...

As for Scrivens vs Bryz, it all probably has more to do with trying to position everything in the best light possible for the Oilers - in terms of what ends up happening with both goaltenders.

Avatar
#46 Oil Is My Blood
February 07 2014, 02:44PM
Trash it!
2
trashes
Cheers
8
cheers

26 comments to date, and not one about the beautiful woman in the jpg?? Shame, ON readers, shame

Avatar
#47 Rob...
February 07 2014, 02:50PM
Trash it!
2
trashes
Cheers
5
cheers

I'm going to be cheering for a 6 point night from Snowpants. It would be awesome to have GM's from around the league going nuts trying to win the Sam Gagner Sweepstakes when the Olympics end. As far fetched as that is, it's more likely that one or more of the many C's participating in the Olympics goes down with injury. Making at least one team desperate for a replacement.

Avatar
#48 #ThereGoesTheOilers
February 07 2014, 04:14PM
Trash it!
2
trashes
Cheers
2
cheers
MacT wrote:

He knows Sochi is underway, its just that his audience doesn't care about anything except Oilers hockey.

Given how disappointing this season has been, that's an incredibly sad statement. You would think this would be a welcome distraction.

Besides, you don't have to care about Sochi to appreciate that we have some very good looking Canadians over there right now.

Avatar
#49 GoCanadaGo
February 07 2014, 04:26PM
Trash it!
2
trashes
Cheers
7
cheers
A-Mc wrote:

Well in that instance, i agree with him.

This fan doesnt give a rats Arse about team figure skating, canadian or otherwise. I care about hockey! And right now NHL hockey is still in session. In between the Oilers and Team Canada, we can talk about all the snowboarders, figure skaters or short track racers.. But once team canada laces up their skates, it's Back to hockey baby! WOOOOOOOooo =)

He's a "sports" show not an exclusive hockey show.

We go to CHED and Oilers Now for that.

Avatar
#50 A-Mc
February 07 2014, 04:27PM
Trash it!
2
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers
** wrote:

16 data points over the course of one season hardly "show that winning teams will go with their starter a few times a year on consecutive nights." Of the top 10 teams in the league this season, according to the data in this article, only 5 goalies have been used more than once in back to backs. Only four have a winning record, that's a success rate of 40%, even the data on this article, when interpreted right, supports going with a different goalie on back to backs.

I think you missed the Point. He wasn't saying that his data proves you should always play your good goalie in game 2 of the back to back. He was saying that the data shows that sometimes a coach goes with his gut and plays his starter in game 2 EVENTHOUGH he knows full well the STATS say to go with the backup on Night 2.

Basically he's just pointing out that Gut instinct trumps stats every once in a while, and when it does it appears to Pay off.

Comments are closed for this article.