AIRPORT '14?

Lowetide
March 02 2014 01:24PM


smyth

Captain Canada. Mr. Oiler. Ryan freaking Smyth. Does he want to go? Can we endure one more airport moment? Is there a market? Oh my. This again.

smyth moose jaw

He's a part of us, just like Groat Road or the Wee Book Inn or Wanye or potholes are a part of us. Ryan Smyth is the kid who wanted so badly to be an Oiler and had his dream come true. His tearful exit years ago is a distant bell, but if there's a market—and he's willing—will we repeat the ordeal?

Oiler fans may not have a choice.

IS THERE A MARKET?

smyth es

Probably. Smyth is playing a depth role but has delivered offense in that role, and his possession numbers are well clear of most other Oilers. Smyth is having a good season


THE VOLLMAN SLEDGEHAHMMER

    (CORSI REL)

corsi rel oil f mar 2

This graph compares Smyth to his own teammates (Corsi Rel) in terms of shot differential. It shows us that he's playing tougher opposition and his zone starts are severe. This is the uphill battle area of the graph -- Smyth, Gordon, Hemsky and Perron are facing tough opps AND starting in their own zone a lot. Smyth's bubble color is rich blue, telling us he's doing an exceptional job compared to his teammates.

He's not perfect. Smyth's 5x5 offense is well down the list, but then again those zone starts and quality of competition impact those numbers in a big way.

Smyth is playing 15:30 a game in Edmonton, getting EV, PP and PK time every game. A contending team wouldn't necessarily need to use him as much, and Smyth might be a more effective player.


WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN?

jagr

These old guys may need a little extra TLC, but come in handy at playoff time. For an NHL team looking for an inexpensive veteran, Ryan Smyth looks like a viable option.

Just don't ask me to drive him to the airport. Or wave goodbye again.

C2a6955161684b5e3189319acfa5ebe4
Lowetide has been one of the Oilogosphere's shining lights for over a century. You can check him out here at OilersNation and at lowetide.ca. He is also the host of Lowdown with Lowetide weekday mornings 10-noon on TSN 1260.
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#101 Alsker
March 02 2014, 11:26PM
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@Jordan Nugent-Hallkins

Unfortunately you're right on all points. Dont forget, the guys that f*cked up rebuild 1.0 are still the ones making the decisions on rebuild 2.0. I think you're right on your timeline of 5 years, just hope they(mgt) have the patience for it and dont panic causing rebuild 3.0(I"m too old for a 15 year rebuild)

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#102 sandy
March 02 2014, 11:52PM
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Jordan Nugent-Hallkins wrote:

I think I'm finally ready to admit the rebuild has failed. Spectacularly, at that. The guy above is right: defense comes first. Draft Ekblad, wait for him and Nurse to develop, hopefully Marincin is the real deal and Klefbom can find the next gear. Try to keep J Schultz. Only problem is, Nuge and Hall will probably be approaching UFA by that point. Beg Nuge to sign an extension, try to convince Hall (I can't see it happening).

Unless Bold Moves pulls some unspeakable deals out of his ass this off season, we'll probably have a great shot at drafting McDavid next year. And it's pretty sad with how much certainty I say that.

Infinibuild 2.0™ will be McDavid and Nuge as our 1C/2C, with Ekblad and Nurse as our 1st D-line. Of course, this is all five or so years down the road, so buckle up.

Also, tell me I didn't just see Jagr's O-face...

glad you're caught up

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#103 DevoKnows
March 03 2014, 06:56AM
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nuge2nail wrote:

Oiler Domination To Follow

Tambellini is the reason this rebuild has taken so long. Worst GM in NHL history... I'm serious statistically the worst ever.

MacT has been extremely active, and he will be judged IMO on the Gagner trade and how he spends the oilers 40+mil in cap space this offseason.

Interesting when you look at some of the guys who show heart and character each game are the ones Mact brought in :

Perron, Hendricks, Gordan, Gazdic, Scrivens

Patience Grasshopper! Give The Oil Mngmnt time, to break down there Heart and Will like they did to the rest of the team!!!

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#104 dougtheslug
March 03 2014, 08:40AM
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Isn't it demoralizing that the Oilers are a lottery team and come to the 2014 draft with a first and fourth round pick and nothing else, and no forward prospects in OKC other than Lander, Arcobello, and Pitlick, whereas a team like Anaheim is a cup contender, has 2 firsts and 2 seconds in the 2014 draft and a boatload of decent prospects in Norfolk in the AHL. You can blame Tambo for some of this mess but MacT has been happily trading away picks as well, and MBS has not exactly been impressing with his picks of late. This organization is so amateurish it makes you want to cry.

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#105 pkam
March 03 2014, 10:49AM
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BingBong wrote:

So we have 1 goalie signed, not necessarily a starter. Does MacT try to get a guy like Hiller, and use Scrivens as a backup? Or will he get a vet goalie like Halak to split the time?

You don't sign a 27 year old at 2.3M a year to be your backup. We have to find out whether Scrivens is the man by the end of this 2 year bridge contract, and we won't be able to by playing him 25-30 games a season.

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#106 Zarf
March 03 2014, 10:55AM
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Agreed, Rod from Viking.

It’s always – always – been my belief that the Smyth Trade in 2007 was Don Meehan’s fault. If what we were told at the time was true, the Oilers and Smyth were somewhere between $100,000 and $200,000 apart on a deal. That’s not a big gap … certainly not one that would have prompted either side to walk away.

The thing that always – always – floors me about that day was the complete lack of follow-up on that point. I don’t recall anyone talking to Don Meehan about what happened or attempting to piece together the chain of events from that day. I do remember the trade was reported fairly late upon the deadline – and, I think, it actually did happen quite late.

But no one in Edmonton who reports on the Oilers ever seemed very interested in finding out how, after several months of negotiations, things were allowed to linger on to the 11th hour like they did. We can all(reflexively) blame K-Lowe for that but I’ve always believed the players always hold the right-of-last-refusal in any contract negotiation. They’re the ones who make the decision to stay or go, based on what their agent does for them … and tells them. And, in the case of Smyth in 2007, I don’t think Meehan did a very good job advising his client.

Put this this way: If six months of hardball negotiations come down to a $100,000 gap that results in your client bawling all the way through the airport of a city and team he never wanted to leave, you screwed up as an agent.

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#107 Randaman
March 03 2014, 10:59AM
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pkam wrote:

You don't sign a 27 year old at 2.3M a year to be your backup. We have to find out whether Scrivens is the man by the end of this 2 year bridge contract, and we won't be able to by playing him 25-30 games a season.

Exactly! Who says Scrivens can't be a starter? TSN analysts, armchair GM's, etc?. Who knew Osgood would be a starter? There is not only one way to become a starter in this league.

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#108 pkam
March 03 2014, 11:07AM
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loweblows wrote:

Larsen put on waivers..making room for?? klefbom or fedun?

I believe he was on IR before. I bet he is getting healthy now so we need to send one player to OKC.

Seems like MacT chooses to keep Marincin over him to stay.

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#109 Rod from Viking
March 03 2014, 11:07AM
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@Zarf

Agree completely, hearing Meehan talk on "Oilers Now" the last couple of years he seems to go out of his way to say what a great place Edmonton is, a little remorse maybe?

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#110 nuge2nail
March 03 2014, 12:38PM
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Serious Gord wrote:

Silly to claim tambo was the worst ever. Dozens were. Just of the top of my head I will give just one who really is in the running for worst ever:

Mike milbury.

As for MacT he has made zero 1-2 line moves. Just Pygmy trades. Should moved gagner. Should have moved hemsky or bought him out. He chronically overvalued his assets and thus is on the sidelines when the big fish are in play.

Oiler Domination To Follow

Lol silly to claim hey...

3 first overall picks in 4 years...

I don't know how anyone could possibly be worse...

Has any team in history ever won 4 first overall picks in a row..

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#111 NsxZero
March 03 2014, 12:56PM
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@Serious Gord

I still don't know why you would want the Oilers to buy Hemsky out. We're not in a state of being strapped for salary room and come this deadline we might be getting a mid pick for him rather than buying him out and having another team sign him for free.

Having him traded is an argument but I have no idea why you would want him bought out.

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#112 Serious Gord
March 03 2014, 04:54PM
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nuge2nail wrote:

Oiler Domination To Follow

Lol silly to claim hey...

3 first overall picks in 4 years...

I don't know how anyone could possibly be worse...

Has any team in history ever won 4 first overall picks in a row..

Go look up milbury's trade and signing record and get back to me. Tambo didn't help things to be sure but Milbury made some absolutely devastating moves.

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#113 Dangilitis
March 03 2014, 10:04PM
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Zarny wrote:

I'd point out the obvious question of are you dumb but the answer is rhetorical.

Lowe panicked? Good grief, this isn't the Kardashians.

Yes, it was a negotiation. The Oilers offered 4-6 yrs @ $5M before the season started and Smyth turned it down. They offered closer to $5.5M over the same term during the year and Smyth didn't take it. He wanted more and the Oilers weren't willing to overpay. So they did what virtually every team does with an expiring contract they can't resign and traded him.

That's not panic; that's basic asset management.

Smyth's performance didn't warrant what the Oilers offered let alone what he signed for. Sorry but that's just how it went. That doesn't mean he was a bad player but he didn't live up to $5.5M let alone $6.25M.

And no it didn't turn out to be a good trade but most trades don't. That doesn't change the fact the Oilers got 3 15th overall prospects and picks out of the Islanders for what turned out to be a rental. Making a bad selection with the pick doesn't make it bad return.

Get a grip.

You're an effing joke, dude. I am an MD. So if I am dumb, you must be intellectually deficient (the old, more politically incorrect term is mentally retarded, just so you are aware). But we all already knew that, because any one who defends Lowe for how he handled the Smyth's situation is either a Lowe or of Lowe intellect (see how I did that, there?). They were 200,000 dollars apart on the deal, and he was still eventually offered 750,000 more by the Avalanche. They had several more months to hash this out over the rest of the season, and Smyth clearly wanted to stay in Edmonton, this wasn't a failed negotiation that was going to end badly. As someone already pointed out, the extra money for Smyth was invested in Penner, who was a worse version of Smyth. And then we got 3 players back from NYI, none of whom turned out to be NHL players and there was enough of a precedent to know that they would not be NHL players, in all likelihood.

And you defend the trade, why exactly?

Again, because you can't read good, I will re-iterate that Smyth scored 149 pts in his 199 games during the first 3 seasons, that's pretty damn good. He had a bit of an off year in a different role in LAK in year 4 (in which he still put up nearly 50 pts), and then was full value for the Oilers in that final year in that same 3rd line role. If you are too stupid to understand that Smyth would have been a useful player on this team, you really should not bother to show up for the fight because you are unarmed.

I am sure you are the kind of individual who thinks we should have kept Horcoff this season, but are apparently balking over Smyth's demands to be paid 0.75mil/season below market value to play for the Oilers. Because teams managed by idiots may beget similar-minded fans?

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#114 Dangilitis
March 03 2014, 10:21PM
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Cain wrote:

Or... Ryan Smyth and his agent were trying to hold the Oilers over a barrel and stubbornly overplayed their hand for what they thought Ryan Smyth was worth...they were wrong and the Oilers traded Smyth. Smyth and his agent over-estimated his worth to the team exactly like you are over-estimating his worth to the team right now. Want proof of the over-estimation on the part Of Smyth? Watch all those crocodile tears at the airport. Was he crying because the Oilers didn't want him? No, the Oilers offered him a contract for millions of dollars to stay here and play hockey. He was crying because he wanted more money than he was worth to the Oilers, and they told him to get stuffed...

Holding over a barrel, hey?

So how big was the barrel that he held the Avalanche over? Or the Kings, who 3 years later were still willing to pick up the tab for a man pushing the wrong side of 30?

If you don't like that NHL players get paid millions to do their business, then don't support it. If you do, then accept they get paid millions. Your argument is moot. If you were offered significantly less than you were worth in your job, and you knew you had a few suitors in line for your services in a few months, don't tell me you would stay with your employer. Easy to look down your nose at someone when you would likely ask for the same.

He would have taken around 5.5 x 5 (27.5 million) to stay in Edmonton, and eventually got 6.25 x 5 (31.25 million) to play in Colorado. Are you honestly telling me that you would leave 4 million dollars on the table to stay in Edmonton, the city, with a floundering team, rather than play with Joe Sakic in Colorado for a 14% pay increase? Because, if you are... I don't want to finish that sentence, Zarny has already exhausted my patience but I will reserve myself here. Suffice it to say, you are likely a hypocrite if faced with a similar situation and you are telling me you stay. But Smyth was willing to do this, to play in Edmonton. To play in front of ingrateful fans like you.

If those were crocodile tears, then I think he deserves an academy award.

I don't know how pegging Smyth for a 4th line winger is overestimating his worth to a team desperately in need of veterans who can kill penalties, stand in the blue paint, and actually care about the team. Lowetide just presented evidence to this effect.

The sentimental man wants Smyth to play one more season. The pragmatic man thinks we can get him fairly cheap to play a reduced role, but would be fine if he hangs them up or is not re-signed. If you call that over-valuing, that is your perogative (but you are wrong).

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#115 Dangilitis
March 03 2014, 10:47PM
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"And no it didn't turn out to be a good trade but most trades don't."

No, that doesn't make sense, braniac. I would say about 50% of trades don't turn out good if you flip a coin, more often than not they will turn out good if you know what you are doing, and then there's your take, which only occurs if you expect inferior management.

"That doesn't change the fact the Oilers got 3 15th overall prospects and picks out of the Islanders for what turned out to be a rental. Making a bad selection with the pick doesn't make it bad return"

30% chance that pick turns out. So I am not sure that was a bad pick. It was an average pick for that position in the draft, because it was unlikely to turn out well.

And then there's the fact that they took 4.25 of that 5.5 million and spent it on 5 years of Dustin Penner. He scored 47, 37, 63, 45, and 17 pts. Even if you look at those first 3 years, that's 147 pts. 2 less than Ryan, and with more games played. Oilers saved 1.3 million a season to get the same production from a player that was criticized by fans and media, rather than a hometown favorite.

Oh, and here's the kicker. We got 3 nobodies back from NYI. And to correct the mistake of trading away Smyth, the Penner offer sheet return was: 2008 #12 overall Tyler Myers, #43 overall Justin Schultz, and #73 Kirill Petrov

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#116 wellsy
March 04 2014, 09:33AM
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Dangilitis wrote:

You're an effing joke, dude. I am an MD. So if I am dumb, you must be intellectually deficient (the old, more politically incorrect term is mentally retarded, just so you are aware). But we all already knew that, because any one who defends Lowe for how he handled the Smyth's situation is either a Lowe or of Lowe intellect (see how I did that, there?). They were 200,000 dollars apart on the deal, and he was still eventually offered 750,000 more by the Avalanche. They had several more months to hash this out over the rest of the season, and Smyth clearly wanted to stay in Edmonton, this wasn't a failed negotiation that was going to end badly. As someone already pointed out, the extra money for Smyth was invested in Penner, who was a worse version of Smyth. And then we got 3 players back from NYI, none of whom turned out to be NHL players and there was enough of a precedent to know that they would not be NHL players, in all likelihood.

And you defend the trade, why exactly?

Again, because you can't read good, I will re-iterate that Smyth scored 149 pts in his 199 games during the first 3 seasons, that's pretty damn good. He had a bit of an off year in a different role in LAK in year 4 (in which he still put up nearly 50 pts), and then was full value for the Oilers in that final year in that same 3rd line role. If you are too stupid to understand that Smyth would have been a useful player on this team, you really should not bother to show up for the fight because you are unarmed.

I am sure you are the kind of individual who thinks we should have kept Horcoff this season, but are apparently balking over Smyth's demands to be paid 0.75mil/season below market value to play for the Oilers. Because teams managed by idiots may beget similar-minded fans?

Good Morning, "Doctor".

Gosh, you seemed a little angry last night.

I'm guessing Dr. Dangilitis had a little visit from Dr. Boozie and then started typing. ;)

As an "MD", you already know, but a couple of Tylenol will help with the headache...

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