MAJOR OVERHAUL, AGAIN!

Jason Gregor
April 17 2014 10:01AM

Change-ahead

This is not breaking news by any stretch, but by next October the Oilers will have 50% of their opening night roster from this season changed over. With Anton Belov signing a four-year deal to return to the KHL that means three of the Oilers starting D-men  from last October won't be in the lineup this coming October.

It isn't just the defence that will have a massive overhaul.

Last season's opening night roster looked like this: (players in bold are no longer in organization)

Smyth-Hall-Hemsky
Perron-Arcobello-Eberle
Joensuu-Gordon-Yakupov
Gazdic-Acton-Brown

Ference-J.Schultz
Smid-Petry
N.Schultz-Belov

Dubnyk
LaBarbera

Those eight along with Ryan Jones and Denis Grebeshkov (not re-signing), Wil Acton and Jesse Joensuu (shouldn't be on roster) and Sam Gagner (trade) makes 13 of 26 players who dressed early last season, who might not be here in six months.

You can look at those changes two ways:

1.) It means the Oilers realize they aren't good enough and had to improve.

2.) You should be concerned because many of the players they brought in last year weren't good enough.

Can anyone say with certainty that the players they bring in this year will be better? I don't think you can. I believe that Oscar Klefbom and Martin Marincin have much more potential than N.Schultz or Belov, but will that potential appear right away? 

The Oilers had to change their roster because it wasn't good enough, but MacTavish must ensure that he and his pro scouts bring in competent replacements this year. If the organization wants to grow they can't afford to sign guys who can't play. They need to bring in better players.

QUICK HITS

  • On Tuesday MacTavish gave a glowing report for the assistant coaches. "I think we have the right people in place," he said. He went on to say he and Eakins will sit down in a few weeks to discuss the team and coaching staff. MacTavish said Eakins will have the final decision on who is on his staff, but if the GM is on record as saying they are great, how will that impact Eakins? If there are no changes on the staff then I believe the coach didn't want to go against his GM. If there are changes, which I expect there to be, then Eakins does have free reign to choose his staff.

  • MacTavish is big on loyalty, and him speaking highly of his assistants didn't surprise me. I'm sure he believes what he said, and if one of them isn't returning, he was never going to throw them under the bus prior to leaving. I'm very curious to see how this unfolds. I believe this situation will say a lot about the direction the organization is going, how much freedom Eakins has to make decisions, and if he will make a tough decision.

  • Last year MacTavish said Sam Gagner was one of the core players, but on Tuesday he wasn't mentioned amongst the core; Hall, Nugent-Hopkins, Eberle and Schultz were. It doesn't guarantee he'll be traded this summer, but all arrows are pointing to that. I still believe Gagner will be a 50-55 point player, and the broken jaw in the preseason completely derailed his season, but I think a change of scenery would benefit both parties.

  • MacTavish didn't mention Yakupov amongst the core, but that doesn't mean he isn't high on him. I doubt the Oilers can get fair value for Yakupov this summer, and I get the sense they believe he can still play a big role in the future. MacTavish will try to hard to find a 2nd line centre, a playmaker who is good defensively, who will compliment Yakupov and allow him to succeed.

  • The Oilers need more scoring from their 5th-12th forwards. I expect Yakupov to be better next year, but they need decent production from a few others. Boyd Gordon and Matt Hendricks are good role players, and won't produce much, which is fine, but here are a few UFA options who could help.

    Mikhail Grabovski. He isn't perfect, but he possesses the puck well and can produce.
    Dave Bolland. If he wants $5 million/year then pass. He can chip in with 30-35 points and is very good defensively. Excellent 3rd line guy who could move up to 2nd line for a few games if needed.
    Brian Boyle. Would add size down the middle or on the wing. Outside of one 20-goal season he hasn't been very consistent offensively, but he does have decent offensive skills.
    Devin Setoguchi. Good complementary player. He likely wouldn't cost much, but the former #8 overall pick has skills despite a poor season in Winnipeg.
    Nikolai Kulemin. A big body who is responsibly defensively, produces shots and chances. He scored 61 goals his first three seasons, but has only scored 23 in his past 188 games. He could be a solid 3rd line left winger.

    There are some big name offensive players like Tomas Vanek, Marian Gaborik, Matt Moulson and Milan Michalek, but all of them are left wingers and the Oilers have Hall and Perron, so I don't see why you would add more top salaries on the left wing. If the Oilers were going to spend big in free agency then I'd go after centre Paul Stastny.

    Stastny is 28 and has become a solid two-way player. He's exactly what the Oilers need, but if he tests the market I think he'll be the most sought after UFA and will command $6-6.5 million over 7 years.

  • MacTavish said he won't go after any middle of the road D-men, instead he'd rather give an opportunity to Klefbom, Marincin or Darnell Nurse. That makes sense, as long as his definition of middle of the road refers to guys like Grebeshkov, Belov, Philip Larsen, Corey Potter or Mark Fraser. I don't see any reason to sign players like that, but I'd assume he is still open to signing a proven veteran defender.

    The Oilers need some experience on the backend other than Andrew Ference. Last summer I said they should look at Ron Hainsey, and he would have been better than any of the five aforementioned D-men. I'd still consider him, but they also need a right shot veteran. Matt Greene would help their leadership and size, and even though his footspeed and puckmoving skills aren't great, I wouldn't have an issue with him on their third pairing. The free agent list of defenders doesn't have many big, strong, defensively sound players, but MacTavish has to get a proven player, rather than a wildcard.

  • I've noticed many people believe the Oilers are over valuing Justin Schultz. I'm not in that group. I think Schultz is still developing and he's done some very good things in his first 122 games. Since 1990, only 25 D-men have had a better points-per-game in their first two seasons than Schultz.

    I understand people are concerned about his defensive play, but I don't need him to be great defensively, just solid. He needs to work on when to pinch and when to stay back, but his offensive instincts are very good. He excels in that area, and as he matures and learns the defensive side of the game he will be very valuable. A good comparable could be Matt Niskanen. Niskanen's first two seasons were fairly good, then he struggled for a few before being dealt to Pittsburgh, and now at 27 he has emerged as a very good D-man.

    It takes time for most D-men to develop, especially those who were pure offensive D-men in college or junior, and I suspect that Schultz will prove many of his detractors wrong in the future.

  • A huge thank you to Page the Cleaner. They wanted to get involved and offered free dry cleaning to anyone who donates a suit to The Gregor Foundation. You have one week left to make a donation. Click here to find out which Page the Cleaner location you can drop your suit off at.

  • The OKC Barons lost 2-1 to first place Texas last night, but they still sit in 8th place with two games remaining. The Barons have a two-point lead on Charlotte and Rockford. Their final two games are Friday and Saturday against the last-place Iowa Wild. The Barons own the tiebreaker over Rockford, but not Charlotte. If they pick up three points this weekend they are in the playoffs, and they could guarantee a spot Friday night if they win and Charlotte loses to Milwaukee.

    It would be great for Klefbom, Nurse, Lander, Pitlick and the rest of the Barons to get some playoff experience. Nurse has played very well according to Todd Nelson and the more experience those young players get the better prepared they will be to battle for a spot at Oilers training camp in October.

    I only see room for one of Klefbom or Nurse in Edmonton next season, and maybe neither to start the season, but both will come to camp hungry to make the team. I'd send Nurse back to junior just to get more seasoning, but at some point soon it will be a refreshing change when the Oilers can send some players down who are actually ready for the NHL, but didn't make it because they have too many quality NHL players.

Recently by Jason Gregor:

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One of Canada's most versatile sports personalities. Jason hosts The Jason Gregor Show, weekdays from 2 to 6 p.m., on TSN 1260, and he writes a column every Monday in the Edmonton Journal. You can follow him on Twitter at twitter.com/JasonGregor
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#101 Romulus' Apotheosis
April 17 2014, 06:45PM
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Jason Gregor wrote:

I don't think MacT is discounting them, he just won't be going for longshots, wildcards or proven #6/7 guys.

Gilbert gives them more of the same style of player, with Petry and Schultz. I don't see him being the answer. Need diversity on right side.

Quincey is intriguing because he shoots left. If he is that good, Detroit won't let him go. They've lost too many good D-men the past few years. If he makes it to market he'd be worthy of a look for sure.

I'm still not as high on Fayne as you, however. He isn't offensive, not physical. He plays okay minutes, but not a difference maker.

We agree on Hainsey.

I'd rate those guys above longshots, wildcards, etc.

I'd take Gilbert back, but I get the comment. He's basically an older Petry. I'd be happy with that mind you.

Babcock played Quincey more than anyone else at 5x5, so I'm guessing they'll try to resign him… but as with all these guys, the fact that they haven't yet is potentially an open door.

At any rate, until they sign him, he's worth taking a look at.

I think we agree on Fayne, but as with Gilbert, I think we might disagree on what will help.

I'd be happy if they brought in a few vets who can shoulder 2nd pairing minutes and keep Nurse and Klefbom away from the NHL for a while.

Or, I'd love to land a #1, but those are damn hard to get… and I think it would be a good idea to look at some really solid "middle of the road" options. (these guys aren't longshots or 6s 7s)

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#102 Walter Sobchak
April 17 2014, 07:53PM
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Jason Gregor wrote:

Scrivens had a .916sv% with Edmonton.

And I wrote, "An organization HOPING to compete for 8th place." I didn't say they would, I wrote that the organization is in a spot where they hope to compete for the final playoff spot next year.

That is why Markov won't come here. He has a few years left to win, and he knows it won't happen in Edmonton.

I get that Scriven's has a 916 SV % at the end of the year.

I also understood what you meant by 8th spot....

What I should have said was Scriven's masked a lot of glaring mistakes and deficiencies the Oilers had throughout the line up especially the defense.

The Oilers should realize this, they don't IMO

With the MacTavish admitting that very little may change and the possibility of going youth on defense, I think the best the Oilers could realistically HOPE for would be just outside a lottery position.

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#103 hagargt
April 17 2014, 11:50PM
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Just got home from wing night... couldn't care less to read this... Fack it all..at this point it is sad

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#104 hagargt
April 17 2014, 11:51PM
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Until lowe is gone... I honestly just cried..

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#105 oilcanz
April 18 2014, 02:14AM
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Why does David Legwand not merit ANY consideration here. He is perfect 2C for these clowns.

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#106 Copper
April 18 2014, 07:57AM
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I believe Hainsey and Greene are the middling Dmen MacT is referring too. Both bottom 6 just like Ference.

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#107 Copper
April 18 2014, 08:00AM
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Copper wrote:

I believe Hainsey and Greene are the middling Dmen MacT is referring too. Both bottom 6 just like Ference.

I had intended to type: bottom pairing Dmen

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#108 Nick
April 18 2014, 12:58PM
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With all the issues surrounding our head coaches over the last 5-6 years, and all the backlash over our assistant coaches being a constant over those same years, why don't the Oilers start grooming coaches thru coaching development like they train their players thru player development? My example would be, Todd Nelson should be given an opportunity to come up to the NHL as an assistant coach and work his way to getting an NHL head coaching job like a McLellan, McLean, etc who went from assistants to Head Coaches. There is no reason to say Nelson has to be our next Head Coach, but if we're developing players and coaches thru the ECHL and AHL affiliate teams, wouldn't that help our NHL head coach knowing that his top coaches in the system are grooming the next wave of youthful players and may end up being his next assistants when his top notch assistant may want a promotion to a head coach within another organization? Seems like a simple concept to me, not sure why the Oilers don't look at developing coaches as hard as they develop players.

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#109 myguess
April 18 2014, 09:05PM
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@Mo Playoffs Mo Problems

Our third overall to Isles for Griffin Reinhart if Ekblad is not available at 3rd

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#110 myguess
April 18 2014, 09:06PM
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@Mo Playoffs Mo Problems

Our third overall to Isles for Griffin Reinhart if Ekblad is not available at 3rd

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