ANOTHER NUGE?

Lowetide
April 02 2014 04:59PM

reinhartsam

For several months now, a conversation involving Sam Reinhart often ends up with the young man being compared to Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. Is that accurate?

gregor reinhart

Sam Reinhart's scouting report does in fact include a lot of things we read about the Nuge. Cerebral, creative, sublime passer. One area that Reinhart gets nicked is skating, although RNH also got that criticism from some early on.

If they are similar players, they should have similar numbers, right?

BOXCARS

Reinhard boxcars

They're actually a really nice match by the boxcars -- this could be two seasons by the same player. They're a match.

SCORING BY DISCIPLINE: EVENS

reinhart evens

HUGE difference at even strength for each player. We know from the earlier look at Reinhart, Bennett and Draisaitl there's not that big a gap between those three players, so the Nuge number appears to be the curio. In the NHL so far, Nuge has scored 59% of his NHL points at evens (Taylor Hall 71% by comparison), but in RNH's final junior season it represented only 44%. 

Reinhart scored 60% of his points this season at even strength.

SCORING BY DISCIPLINE: POWER PLAY

reinhard power play

56% of the Nuge's points in his draft year came on the power play, compared to Reinhart's 38%. That's a significant difference. Nuge's Red Deer team scored 80PP goals, 7 shorthanded goals and 181 at even strength. Reinhart's team scored 62PP goals, 5 shorthanded goals and 168 at even strength. 

RNH was part of 74% of the Rebels PP scoring, 64.5%, so much of the difference appears to have come in team success. All of this is interesting, but without TOI totals I'm not sure how much we can say with authority. It does seem clear based on the splits that the Nuge is a more effective power-play center and Reinhart scored more at even strength. It COULD imply that Reinhart is in fact a better offensive player. I'm not certain we can state that as a fact.

SIZE

They're pretty much the same, their WHL pages say they were both 6.0, and Nuge's 173 pounds trails Reinhart by 10 pounds. I'm not sure if these are absolutely accurate but it's worth noting.


WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN?

glass door

Reading the situation incorrectly can make a man look like an idiot. We don't know the TOI for either player—at even strength or on the power play—and the differences in their scoring totals may not reflect actual ability. I do recall the Rebels rolling four lines at evens during Nuge's final season in Red Deer. That could explain what we're looking at here.

Having said that, it's a very curious item. It makes sense that you'd like an even-strength scorer over a power-play specialist, and that would favor Reinhart in this case.

Sam Reinhart is an interesting prospect. 


pronman reinhart

C2a6955161684b5e3189319acfa5ebe4
Lowetide has been one of the Oilogosphere's shining lights for over a century. You can check him out here at OilersNation and at lowetide.ca. He is also the host of Lowdown with Lowetide weekday mornings 10-noon on Team 1260.
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#1 Senator Theo
April 02 2014, 05:05PM
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That guy has too much cream in his coffee.

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#2 mesa
April 02 2014, 05:09PM
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it was latte .

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#3 sintaxi
April 02 2014, 05:10PM
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I can understand people excitement for Ekblad but Reinhart is the guy to take if he is available. Top end centers are so hard to acquire. Better to draft centers and find other means to fill the gaps on the blue line.

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#4 james_dean
April 02 2014, 05:12PM
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Smurfs up

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#5 Senator Theo
April 02 2014, 05:14PM
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mesa wrote:

it was latte .

Maybe if he left a little earlier, he wouldn't have to hurry so much and wouldn't be latte.

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#6 Naky
April 02 2014, 05:23PM
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Yeah, sure, why not. Let's stay small. It's been working so well for us these past few years, we may as well keep doing it.

Excuse me, Mr. Einstein, what was the definition of insanity again?

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#7 Step Daddy J
April 02 2014, 05:26PM
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Sam Reinhart is not just an interesting prospect , he is much more ! I've been raving about Sam for the past 3 years ! This guy is a Talent ! Very Creative and A Goal Scorer ! I Don't Think Edmonton will take him , but I'd shure be happy if they did .

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#8 OilDieHard
April 02 2014, 05:28PM
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i'm still OK with us picking Reinhart. and i don't care if he's "only" 6' 1" 185, he'll likely get a bit bigger before he stops growing. he's a great talent and will likely be a great 1-2 with Nuge.

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#9 yegCopywriter
April 02 2014, 05:30PM
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Matheson has been talking Ekblad or Draisaitl for a while, but I don't think there's any way you can argue Draisaitl is better than Reinhart. If Ekblad is gone and Reinhart is there, you have to take Reinhart.

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#10 Max
April 02 2014, 05:34PM
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Just what we DON'T need - another undersized "goal scoring" forward. We have had (and still have) our share of them, and look where they've gotten us. A MAN, not a kid, a MAN, a D MAN, with size, experience and a proven track record. THAT'S what we need. I have to shake my head at some of the articles on this site - are you all obtuse or are there some of you out there that agree with me? We need the 3 esses. SKILL, SIZE and SPEED. PLEASE.

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#11 Naky
April 02 2014, 05:39PM
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@Manfly

Really? You want to wait and hope that he gets bigger? When will that be, can you tell us? We said these things about Eberle, we said these things about RNH, we're even still staying these things about Taylor Hall and while he's slowly been filling out how many years has it been now?

How many more years do you want to wait for Bennett and Reinhart to fill out and compete in a conference like ours filled to the brim with big, fast, and skilled teams that have their way with us? You got four more years of sucking in you? Five?

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#12 Czar
April 02 2014, 05:40PM
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The kid will be a Sabre

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#13 OilDieHard
April 02 2014, 05:46PM
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Max wrote:

Just what we DON'T need - another undersized "goal scoring" forward. We have had (and still have) our share of them, and look where they've gotten us. A MAN, not a kid, a MAN, a D MAN, with size, experience and a proven track record. THAT'S what we need. I have to shake my head at some of the articles on this site - are you all obtuse or are there some of you out there that agree with me? We need the 3 esses. SKILL, SIZE and SPEED. PLEASE.

and @Naky....do you think Reinhart has finished growing at 17? if you do, then give your head a shake! i went from 6 feet and 165 at 17 to 6' 2" and 195 by the time i was 22! Reinhart like most his age have not stopped growing yet and, if Ekblad was gone and we had a chance to get Reinhart and passed, and he grew into a 6'2" or 6'3" 200 pound center, which we need by the way, right? then every Oiler hockey board would be constantly whining that we DIDN'T take him!

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#14 Sliderule
April 02 2014, 05:50PM
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Reinhart is not undersized.

He is 6-1 and 183 lbs at 18 which is about the same as Hall was in draft year. The Nuge was at least 10 lbs lighter and with a slimmer build.

Reinhart has put up monster playoff numbers against a very good team.He also was relied on at WJC which the Nuge did not make.

Unfortunately he will most likely be gone before the oilers pick.

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#15 Ianf
April 02 2014, 05:52PM
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Is bennet not like 8 months younger? In a tougher league? With sandpaper in his game?

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#16 Al Low
April 02 2014, 05:53PM
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Ekblad and Reinhart are the players with the least amount of risk in this draft. I'm not a scout but both guys seem like they will be excellent players for their respective teams in the future.

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#17 Naky
April 02 2014, 05:55PM
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@Manfly

Hahaha. By your own example, it took 5 years! -----> !!!!!5!!!!!

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#18 Randaman
April 02 2014, 06:13PM
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If pedigree means anything then picking Reinhart is a no brainer. Centre over defence any day of the week in my opinion. What would it take to pry the pick from Florida? Eberle & Next years 2nd? Thoughts?

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#19 Step Daddy J
April 02 2014, 06:21PM
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The 2014 NHL Draft Is Getting More Interesting By The Minute ! I can't wait for the draft lottery . I'm so excited . Reinhart , Ekblad , Leon , Bennet , We Can't Lose !!

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#20 Fasteddy
April 02 2014, 06:27PM
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I've watched a significant number of Reinhart's games, and I can't fathom that there's a better prospect elsewhere. He is the best forward in the WHL by a mile, (yes at this age even), and the play almost never ends on his stick. Draisaitl should not be mentioned in the same breath, (keep in mind I'm referring to NOW, I'm no expert on forecasting these guys). If the Oilers have a chance to draft Reinhart, they almost can't go wrong. Ekblad scares me; is he three or four years from being a number one/two dman? Will he ever be the "Mr Everything" dman? (by most accounts he isn't dominant physically, which certainly brings into question whether he's an ace or a guy that can run the pp down the road). Don't get me wrong; no one would be happier than I if he was the next Doughty, but boy there have been a lot of highly regarded dmen that take far longer, if ever, to turn into that kind of player.

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#21 oilbaron
April 02 2014, 06:29PM
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I would draft the bigger German kid and than make trades to bolster our blue line with experienced players. We have a log jam of defensive prospects and no room for another in ekblad, even tho he may turn out to be a 1/2. Reinhart looks small to me, he's more of the same, we need different type of players and we need to start drafting upon need and not BPA.

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#22 oilcountry
April 02 2014, 06:31PM
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I am all for Ekblad, but if he's not there and we pick at 2 it has to be BPA which would be Reinhardt in my books.

He has decent size,there are no thortons where were picking and to me drasaitl has way more risk.

Take Reinhart and start trading spare parts for what we need, besides it will be hilarious listening to the eastern media telling us how bad we are.

I am okay with winning 10-8 again worked out great in the 80's

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#23 D-Unit
April 02 2014, 06:32PM
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So, He will fall into the boards and need shoulder surgery early in his NHL career?

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#24 Danoilerfanincalgary
April 02 2014, 06:38PM
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A few years ago there was a highly thought of prospect centerman who dropped in the draft to fourth overall because he was a little on the small size at a time when teams were looking for bigger players he was only 5'11" and 185 lbs. Anyone heard of Steve Yzerman I would hate for us to make the same mistake passing on a guy like him. I would be happy with any of the top 4.

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#25 CMG30
April 02 2014, 06:39PM
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Fortunately for Mactavish (or unfortunately?) the Oilers are likely to draft 2nd or 3rd and odds are Reinhart will be gone. This spares him from a no-win situation. Do you piss off half the fanbase by selecting the BPA, who happens to be 'small' or do you piss off the other half by passing on the BPA and select the bigger guy?... Or the stud defenseman...? Or do you trade the pick for established help...?

I think Mactavish's life becomes exponentially easier if they slide to 3rd and likely end up with Draisaitl by default.

But since the only winning the Oil do lately is the draft lottery, I guess I should throw in my 2 cents in that eventuality:

Take the BPA unless you don't see a clear front runner. In that case take the bigger, meaner guy. Be wary of taking defense in the top 5 from because they are more likely to flop and in the case of the Oilers will take too long to develop anyway. Only trade the pick if someone offers you the moon. So, all thing considered, I guess that means I'd be drafting Rienhart.

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#26 New Season New Hope
April 02 2014, 06:42PM
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If we don't draft Ekblad, it has to be Draisaitl for me. Even if Reinhart hasn't finished growing, he will likely top out at Hall's size. Then our biggest top 6 forward is either Reinhart or Hall. None of our top six currently match up to the size of the forwards in San Jose, Anaheim, LA, or St. Louis. We need some forwards that are over 200 lbs at 18 and still getting bigger. Draiaitl was the player of the month in the WHL in March which is part of the toughest part of the regular season and early playoffs. Sounds like the type of guy I want on the Oilers. No offense to Reinhart but we already got three players just like him.

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#27 Taylor Gang
April 02 2014, 06:42PM
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I don't trust management enough to pull off the big trade that would inevitably follow if EDM picked Reinhart. Far, far too much skill, not enough of anything else. Do you fans seriously suggest Reinhart would reverse the Oilers' fortunes?

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#28 billythebullet
April 02 2014, 06:47PM
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Everyone said similar things about rnh in his draft, regarding his size. I still belive rnh can be a Joe Sakic caliber player. Reinhart being compared to rnh says this to me, amzing hockey player. I should hope that the oilers don't get him tho, as we need some forwards with a different dimension. Perhaps Bennet is a better fit, who is often compared to Doug Gilmore. And fyi, Bennet is listed at hockeydb as being 6-0 and 183lbs. Which is actually smaller then what Reinhart is listed as.

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#29 Rondo
April 02 2014, 06:51PM
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Corey Pronman said Reinhart would have gone #4 or #5 in last years draft.

Don't know if he meant his rankings or the actual draft last year. Either way that is quite high.

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#30 geno
April 02 2014, 06:51PM
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Hey LT,

do you think EDM signs Kellen Jones?

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#31 yegCopywriter
April 02 2014, 06:52PM
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@Taylor Gang

I read all the comments. No one said Reinhart would reverse the Oilers fortunes.

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#32 Taylor Gang
April 02 2014, 06:56PM
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yegCopywriter wrote:

I read all the comments. No one said Reinhart would reverse the Oilers fortunes.

What is the point of drafting players? To make your team better. The Oilers are using the draft to make their team better, meaning their fortunes will be reversed. Picking Reinhart implies that he will reverse the fortunes of the team.

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#33 Rama Lama
April 02 2014, 07:00PM
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If I'm in charge........I would take the meanest, biggest, skilled centerman available. Trade down if you must as these players rarely go in the top five........but every team covets these types of players.

The draft to start planning for is slated for next year, as most scouts state this will be the best draft in the last twenty years. One scout stated there could be as many as four or five generational players available........if that is the case maybe we trade down and try for another first round draft choice for next year.

For our situation I think selecting Ekblad is the only sound option.

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#34 John
April 02 2014, 07:02PM
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Oilers will probably pick anywhere from #1 - #4.

So if you go by BPA , Oilers will pick one of these players or trade their pick

Reinhart

Ekblad

Draisaitl

Bennett

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#35 yegCopywriter
April 02 2014, 07:02PM
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@Taylor Gang

One player can't reverse the fortunes of the team. It'll take a lot more from MacTavish than that.

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#36 Oil fan?
April 02 2014, 07:03PM
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I watch every home game for the Kootenay Ice. I am a die hard oilers fan. We need defense. Having said that, passing on Sam Reinhart would be a huuuuuuge mistake. The kid has the most hockey IQ I have ever seen. Sam's the man!

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#37 Brian
April 02 2014, 07:04PM
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MacT needs to shop the pick aggressively , either as a standalone or in a package. Target D-Men (men, not 18 year olds), then centres as second priority.

If that doesn't work out, ranking should be Ekblad, Reinhart, drysaddle (sorry Leon) then Bennett.

Gentlemen,close your books.

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#38 Serious Gord
April 02 2014, 07:04PM
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Trade the damn pick. This team needs help NOW not three to four years from now.

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#39 westcoastoil
April 02 2014, 07:09PM
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New Season New Hope wrote:

If we don't draft Ekblad, it has to be Draisaitl for me. Even if Reinhart hasn't finished growing, he will likely top out at Hall's size. Then our biggest top 6 forward is either Reinhart or Hall. None of our top six currently match up to the size of the forwards in San Jose, Anaheim, LA, or St. Louis. We need some forwards that are over 200 lbs at 18 and still getting bigger. Draiaitl was the player of the month in the WHL in March which is part of the toughest part of the regular season and early playoffs. Sounds like the type of guy I want on the Oilers. No offense to Reinhart but we already got three players just like him.

I know that this has been said in past draft posts, but one consideration when looking at Draisaitl is that he enjoys a size advantage against other players now that he will not have in the NHL. I know teams try to project size, which they can to some degree, but none of us knows what the size difference will be between these kids in 3 years - it may or may not be much of a factor. You'd hope the scouts look past size and go more to overall skill and who they think will be the best player down the road.

This might be one of those years where it's in the fans best interest if the Oilers pick 3rd and the decision is made for them.

Sigh....how great will it be when the draft starts to matter sometime in May/June.

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#40 Taylor Gang
April 02 2014, 07:13PM
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yegCopywriter wrote:

One player can't reverse the fortunes of the team. It'll take a lot more from MacTavish than that.

I'm just saying, if MacT was ballsy enough to trade one of the kids, he would have done it by now. Also, the reason teams pick BPA regardless of team need is because you can trade away the players you already have for pieces you need further down the road. MacT is no Peter Chiarelli.

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#41 OilDieHard
April 02 2014, 07:14PM
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Naky wrote:

@Manfly

Hahaha. By your own example, it took 5 years! -----> !!!!!5!!!!!

ya, so? in the meantime, he's productive.

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#42 The artist formerly known as Harry
April 02 2014, 07:16PM
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yegCopywriter wrote:

Matheson has been talking Ekblad or Draisaitl for a while, but I don't think there's any way you can argue Draisaitl is better than Reinhart. If Ekblad is gone and Reinhart is there, you have to take Reinhart.

If so then who gets traded for some top 6 size? Cause they damn well are going to need it desperately.

Also no matter who they pick they absolutely have to keep them in junior abother year

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#43 David S
April 02 2014, 07:24PM
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Rama Lama wrote:

If I'm in charge........I would take the meanest, biggest, skilled centerman available. Trade down if you must as these players rarely go in the top five........but every team covets these types of players.

The draft to start planning for is slated for next year, as most scouts state this will be the best draft in the last twenty years. One scout stated there could be as many as four or five generational players available........if that is the case maybe we trade down and try for another first round draft choice for next year.

For our situation I think selecting Ekblad is the only sound option.

I know tanking for picks is an accepted way of running an NHL team here in Edmonton, but I for one wouldn't mind us not discussing top 5 draft picks this time next year. Adding another 18 year old hopeful franchise player isn't going to help this team at all. Sooner or later fans are going to expect to see more than the odd win at home.

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#44 David S
April 02 2014, 07:25PM
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Also...NUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUGE!!!!!

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#45 hagargt
April 02 2014, 07:33PM
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Serious Gord wrote:

Trade the damn pick. This team needs help NOW not three to four years from now.

The management uses the draft as a distraction to bridge the end of season screams for bloody murder,to the over-hyped fight song that is the oilers every new season. If they didn't have their draft pick, we would have nothing to look forward to, and thus our attention would still be on firing lowe/others. It has worked for how many years now?

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#46 Butters
April 02 2014, 07:36PM
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Taylor Gang wrote:

I'm just saying, if MacT was ballsy enough to trade one of the kids, he would have done it by now. Also, the reason teams pick BPA regardless of team need is because you can trade away the players you already have for pieces you need further down the road. MacT is no Peter Chiarelli.

You might be surprised. Apparently Yakupov isn't a good hockey player anymore. BS doesn't even mention his name when talking about the team's young core.

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#47 Butters
April 02 2014, 07:50PM
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David S wrote:

I know tanking for picks is an accepted way of running an NHL team here in Edmonton, but I for one wouldn't mind us not discussing top 5 draft picks this time next year. Adding another 18 year old hopeful franchise player isn't going to help this team at all. Sooner or later fans are going to expect to see more than the odd win at home.

Sadly, the tanking isn't intentional.

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#48 Taylor Gang
April 02 2014, 07:52PM
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Butters wrote:

You might be surprised. Apparently Yakupov isn't a good hockey player anymore. BS doesn't even mention his name when talking about the team's young core.

What does that have to do with what I said?

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#49 D-Unit
April 02 2014, 08:00PM
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Butters wrote:

Sadly, the tanking isn't intentional.

Maybe not by the players, but from management, it seems it might be. Really how can management actually think the team will get out of the draft lottery when you start a season without a single Top 3 NHL d man?

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#50 David S
April 02 2014, 08:08PM
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D-Unit wrote:

Maybe not by the players, but from management, it seems it might be. Really how can management actually think the team will get out of the draft lottery when you start a season without a single Top 3 NHL d man?

^THIS.

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