ANOTHER NUGE?

Lowetide
April 02 2014 04:59PM

reinhartsam

For several months now, a conversation involving Sam Reinhart often ends up with the young man being compared to Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. Is that accurate?

gregor reinhart

Sam Reinhart's scouting report does in fact include a lot of things we read about the Nuge. Cerebral, creative, sublime passer. One area that Reinhart gets nicked is skating, although RNH also got that criticism from some early on.

If they are similar players, they should have similar numbers, right?

BOXCARS

Reinhard boxcars

They're actually a really nice match by the boxcars -- this could be two seasons by the same player. They're a match.

SCORING BY DISCIPLINE: EVENS

reinhart evens

HUGE difference at even strength for each player. We know from the earlier look at Reinhart, Bennett and Draisaitl there's not that big a gap between those three players, so the Nuge number appears to be the curio. In the NHL so far, Nuge has scored 59% of his NHL points at evens (Taylor Hall 71% by comparison), but in RNH's final junior season it represented only 44%. 

Reinhart scored 60% of his points this season at even strength.

SCORING BY DISCIPLINE: POWER PLAY

reinhard power play

56% of the Nuge's points in his draft year came on the power play, compared to Reinhart's 38%. That's a significant difference. Nuge's Red Deer team scored 80PP goals, 7 shorthanded goals and 181 at even strength. Reinhart's team scored 62PP goals, 5 shorthanded goals and 168 at even strength. 

RNH was part of 74% of the Rebels PP scoring, 64.5%, so much of the difference appears to have come in team success. All of this is interesting, but without TOI totals I'm not sure how much we can say with authority. It does seem clear based on the splits that the Nuge is a more effective power-play center and Reinhart scored more at even strength. It COULD imply that Reinhart is in fact a better offensive player. I'm not certain we can state that as a fact.

SIZE

They're pretty much the same, their WHL pages say they were both 6.0, and Nuge's 173 pounds trails Reinhart by 10 pounds. I'm not sure if these are absolutely accurate but it's worth noting.


WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN?

glass door

Reading the situation incorrectly can make a man look like an idiot. We don't know the TOI for either player—at even strength or on the power play—and the differences in their scoring totals may not reflect actual ability. I do recall the Rebels rolling four lines at evens during Nuge's final season in Red Deer. That could explain what we're looking at here.

Having said that, it's a very curious item. It makes sense that you'd like an even-strength scorer over a power-play specialist, and that would favor Reinhart in this case.

Sam Reinhart is an interesting prospect. 


pronman reinhart

C2a6955161684b5e3189319acfa5ebe4
Lowetide has been one of the Oilogosphere's shining lights for over a century. You can check him out here at OilersNation and at lowetide.ca. He is also the host of Lowdown with Lowetide weekday mornings 10-noon on TSN 1260.
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#1 Max
April 02 2014, 05:34PM
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Just what we DON'T need - another undersized "goal scoring" forward. We have had (and still have) our share of them, and look where they've gotten us. A MAN, not a kid, a MAN, a D MAN, with size, experience and a proven track record. THAT'S what we need. I have to shake my head at some of the articles on this site - are you all obtuse or are there some of you out there that agree with me? We need the 3 esses. SKILL, SIZE and SPEED. PLEASE.

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#2 Will
April 02 2014, 08:52PM
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So, in the list of upcoming free agents that could make the team better, and there are certainly a few, which every other team in the league is going to look at signing, including the ones they currently play for, a couple of names keep popping up: Legwand and Stasny could be great additions to help balance out our top 6 and improve our centre depth issues. Markov, Nikitin both sound like they will command big overpays if they even actually hit the free agent market, but likely will not be the ultimate D solution the fans are clamoring for. And then there are a few wingers who's names get mentioned as maybe ways to improve our toughness and two way play? Names like Wingles and Downie. But the one name no one is saying, a name that is kind of ironic, is Heatly.

The guy is 33, a giant, kind of a dick, and is coming off a huge money contract with low, low production. This guy is going to come at such a value. Does anyone out there see the Oilers making a pitch for this guy?

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#3 Mustangheart
April 02 2014, 08:11PM
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@Serious Gord

I have to agree 100%.

As much as I would like to see Ekblad or Reinhart in an Oilers uniform, I would trade the pick to say Nashville for Weber.

Nashville's new owners want to make $$ and to build a team, plus they need offense. Trade the 1st pick, plus Gagner, and Yak or who-ever if need be, "but get Weber".

Stick with Hall, Eberle, Shultz, Perron, RNH, Petry and of course the Professor, to build around.

We have enough D prospects in Oklahoma ready to join the Oilers if they have a good teacher to guide them.

Loose the assistant coaches for experienced NHL coaches. Eakins needs help in coaching and ,mentoring the players.

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#4 GCW
April 03 2014, 06:23AM
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The answer may be draft Reinhardt and trade RNH for defensive help or a bigger two way centre.

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#5 sintaxi
April 02 2014, 05:10PM
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I can understand people excitement for Ekblad but Reinhart is the guy to take if he is available. Top end centers are so hard to acquire. Better to draft centers and find other means to fill the gaps on the blue line.

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#6 Serious Gord
April 02 2014, 07:04PM
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Trade the damn pick. This team needs help NOW not three to four years from now.

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#7 Naky
April 02 2014, 05:39PM
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@Manfly

Really? You want to wait and hope that he gets bigger? When will that be, can you tell us? We said these things about Eberle, we said these things about RNH, we're even still staying these things about Taylor Hall and while he's slowly been filling out how many years has it been now?

How many more years do you want to wait for Bennett and Reinhart to fill out and compete in a conference like ours filled to the brim with big, fast, and skilled teams that have their way with us? You got four more years of sucking in you? Five?

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#8 Oilerboy1112
April 02 2014, 08:53PM
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When RNH gets an assist or a goal in Rexall do people boo him or are my ears messed up?

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#9 nuge2nail
April 02 2014, 08:59PM
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Oiler Domination To Follow

Hall Hopkins Eberle

Perron Reinhart Yakupov

Markhov Nikitin

Shultz Marincin

Ference Petry

Klefbom

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#10 Naky
April 02 2014, 05:23PM
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Yeah, sure, why not. Let's stay small. It's been working so well for us these past few years, we may as well keep doing it.

Excuse me, Mr. Einstein, what was the definition of insanity again?

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#11 The Last Big Bear
April 02 2014, 11:08PM
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When I think to myself "What do the Oilers really need to get to the next level?", the immediate answer is always "Another 18 year old scoring forward who's closest comparable is RNH."

I mean, every time I see this team, I think that the basic ingredients are right, they just need more of the same.

Forget trading the pick for a veteran first pairing defenceman. The Oilers wont be able to take the next step until they have more teenage toe-draggers.

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#12 oilbaron
April 02 2014, 06:29PM
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I would draft the bigger German kid and than make trades to bolster our blue line with experienced players. We have a log jam of defensive prospects and no room for another in ekblad, even tho he may turn out to be a 1/2. Reinhart looks small to me, he's more of the same, we need different type of players and we need to start drafting upon need and not BPA.

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#13 Step Daddy J
April 02 2014, 05:26PM
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Sam Reinhart is not just an interesting prospect , he is much more ! I've been raving about Sam for the past 3 years ! This guy is a Talent ! Very Creative and A Goal Scorer ! I Don't Think Edmonton will take him , but I'd shure be happy if they did .

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#14 Stack Pad Save
April 03 2014, 08:58AM
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In my NSHO, the Oilers have some serious problems. They need a legit 2nd line center, they need a legit top pairing Dman and they need a 3rd line that can push Hendricks and Gordon to the 4th line.

This is what the Oiler should do this offseason if all could be done and things go perfect for them…

Hall – RNH – Eberle

Perron – Couturier ** - Vrbata (UFA)

Winnik (UFA)– Ott (UFA)– King *

Hendricks – Gordon – Gazdik

Markov (UFA) – Schultz

Marincin – Petry/Klefbomb

Ference – Nurse/Ekblad (take who ever plays best out of camp send the other back to Jr.)

Vrbata – currently costs 3 mil, will have to pay 4 mil to get

Ott – currently costs 3 mil, will have to pay 4.5 mil to get

Winnik – currently costs 1.8 mil and will have to pay 2.5 mil to get

Markov – currently gets 5.75 and will have to pay 6.5 mil 2 years

Costs 17.5 million in UFA

Oilers have 27 million in cap space

Leaves 10 million to resign Justin Schultz and whatever AHL needs you have like Pitlick, Lander, etc.

*Dwight King from LA for Gagner and 3rd round pick **Yakupov and either Petry/Klefbomb to Philly for Couturier

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#15 Randaman
April 02 2014, 06:13PM
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If pedigree means anything then picking Reinhart is a no brainer. Centre over defence any day of the week in my opinion. What would it take to pry the pick from Florida? Eberle & Next years 2nd? Thoughts?

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#16 D-Unit
April 02 2014, 06:32PM
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So, He will fall into the boards and need shoulder surgery early in his NHL career?

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#17 james_dean
April 02 2014, 05:12PM
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Smurfs up

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#18 Taylor Gang
April 02 2014, 06:56PM
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yegCopywriter wrote:

I read all the comments. No one said Reinhart would reverse the Oilers fortunes.

What is the point of drafting players? To make your team better. The Oilers are using the draft to make their team better, meaning their fortunes will be reversed. Picking Reinhart implies that he will reverse the fortunes of the team.

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#19 Taylor Gang
April 02 2014, 06:42PM
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I don't trust management enough to pull off the big trade that would inevitably follow if EDM picked Reinhart. Far, far too much skill, not enough of anything else. Do you fans seriously suggest Reinhart would reverse the Oilers' fortunes?

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#20 Kevin
April 02 2014, 08:52PM
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@The Crystal Ball

You need size with one of your top 2 centres

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#21 Kevin
April 02 2014, 09:22PM
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@The Crystal Ball

Toews is a big centre. I don't know who those other teams are have they won a cup lately?

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#22 John Kirsch-Brooklyn
April 03 2014, 08:04PM
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Stack Pad Save wrote:

What issue do you have with RNH? He is in his 3rd year, he is only 20 years old. He is showing progression in all aspects of his game. Getzlaf wasn't dominating the NHL until he was 22 years old. Datsyk was 28 when he started dominating the NHL. Yzerman was 21 when he started to dominate the NHL. Joe Sackic didn't have a year until he was positive +/- until he was 22. Joe Thornton was 24 when he got his first 100 point season.

Give the Nuge another couple of years before you right him off. He is showing growth in multiple aspects of his game, give him another year to put it all together and see if it happens by the time he is 22. 2 years still left until he should be a dominate force in the NHL.

The problem the Oilers have and fans as well, is that they expect that a bunch of teenagers should be dominating the NHL, that just doesn't happen.

More like stagnation- where is the growth.

His overall stats are down from when he was @18 how is that growth?

Here are his stats: http://www.hockey-reference.com/players/n/nugenry01.html

The problem is with guys like you that accept a player like this. Even mentioning him in the same breath with Yzerman et al. is a joke (who btw had 39 goals @19, albeit in a different era. Yzerman achieved those stats with believe it or not a crappier team than our current '14 Oilers.

Getzlaf is/never was "dominate" either was, Crosby is the only dominate player in today's game. Getzlaf is physically dominating...Thornton, again not dominate (See Crosby) an elite player yes a beast yes, but alas Hopkins does not fit that mold.

Bottom line is that Hopkins is a 20-25 goal scorer, he will never dominate- he is a #2 center. Never mind my concerns about his compete level and lack thereof.

Proper expectations need to be set, Hopkins is a good player no more no less. All the players you mentioned above are not dominate, Gretzky, Lemieux, and Crosby are the only truly dominate players of the modern era.

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#23 HardBoiledOil
April 02 2014, 05:28PM
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i'm still OK with us picking Reinhart. and i don't care if he's "only" 6' 1" 185, he'll likely get a bit bigger before he stops growing. he's a great talent and will likely be a great 1-2 with Nuge.

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#24 hagargt
April 03 2014, 12:09AM
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Oh, and of course start by firing lowe the coward. It will go a long way to cure the disease. Lots of wins are available bringing in some experienced hockey minds. The team actually has some potential as we all see when they are trying.

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#25 Naky
April 02 2014, 05:55PM
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@Manfly

Hahaha. By your own example, it took 5 years! -----> !!!!!5!!!!!

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#26 Brian
April 02 2014, 07:04PM
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MacT needs to shop the pick aggressively , either as a standalone or in a package. Target D-Men (men, not 18 year olds), then centres as second priority.

If that doesn't work out, ranking should be Ekblad, Reinhart, drysaddle (sorry Leon) then Bennett.

Gentlemen,close your books.

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#27 yegCopywriter
April 02 2014, 05:30PM
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Matheson has been talking Ekblad or Draisaitl for a while, but I don't think there's any way you can argue Draisaitl is better than Reinhart. If Ekblad is gone and Reinhart is there, you have to take Reinhart.

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#28 Taylor Gang
April 02 2014, 07:13PM
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yegCopywriter wrote:

One player can't reverse the fortunes of the team. It'll take a lot more from MacTavish than that.

I'm just saying, if MacT was ballsy enough to trade one of the kids, he would have done it by now. Also, the reason teams pick BPA regardless of team need is because you can trade away the players you already have for pieces you need further down the road. MacT is no Peter Chiarelli.

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#29 Darn it!
April 03 2014, 09:33PM
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If you mean another Nuge as in skinny, scared and skilled, then no, Reinharts better then that.

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#30 mesa
April 02 2014, 05:09PM
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it was latte .

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#31 Walter Sobchak
April 02 2014, 08:31PM
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I think Yakupov is going to be just fine.

Having said that, I can't figure out why everyone keeps including Yakupov in trade deals??

The kids ankle is broke, the year he had puts his worth at an absolute low.

Stop thinking GM's are stupid!

Stop trading our junk to the Predators for one of the best defensmen in the NHL.

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#32 Zamboni Driver
April 03 2014, 04:51PM
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@The Crystal Ball

And if you are implying RNH is going to be anywhere near any of those guys, you've lost your mind. What, exactly is RNH's excuse for this train wreck of a year?

Good lord people.

SAKIC AND YZERMAN?!

DATSYUK?

Please PLEASE pull over until the 'ludes wear off.

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#33 Hopeless in Etown
April 02 2014, 06:42PM
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If we don't draft Ekblad, it has to be Draisaitl for me. Even if Reinhart hasn't finished growing, he will likely top out at Hall's size. Then our biggest top 6 forward is either Reinhart or Hall. None of our top six currently match up to the size of the forwards in San Jose, Anaheim, LA, or St. Louis. We need some forwards that are over 200 lbs at 18 and still getting bigger. Draiaitl was the player of the month in the WHL in March which is part of the toughest part of the regular season and early playoffs. Sounds like the type of guy I want on the Oilers. No offense to Reinhart but we already got three players just like him.

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#34 David S
April 02 2014, 07:25PM
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Also...NUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUGE!!!!!

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#35 The Last Big Bear
April 02 2014, 11:24PM
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admiralmark wrote:

I would not be the least bit upset with Reinhart, Draistl or Bennet as the Oilers pick this year. This team needs a 2C almost as much as D. I almost think more because of whats already in the pipeline.

For 2C options, who are upcoming UFAs, and 31 or younger, the list includes Paul Stastny, Steve Ott, Mikhail Grabovski, Derek Roy, etc.

How many first pairing defencemen under the age of 35 are available as UFAs? And I don't mean first pairing in Edmonton, I mean first pairing on their current team...

I disagree 100% that the Oilers, who have the single worst defence in the entire NHL, need a 2nd line centre more than they need defence. But even if they did, its much easier to acquire a 2nd line centre than it is to acquire an elite defenceman.

But in either case, the Oilers should not be looking to draft that player, the franchise can't afford to wait 5 more years to address their glaring needs.

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#36 Total Points
April 03 2014, 11:47AM
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We should quit speculating about who pick with our first rounder and figure out who to trade it for.

We need NHL players now

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#37 HardBoiledOil
April 02 2014, 05:46PM
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Max wrote:

Just what we DON'T need - another undersized "goal scoring" forward. We have had (and still have) our share of them, and look where they've gotten us. A MAN, not a kid, a MAN, a D MAN, with size, experience and a proven track record. THAT'S what we need. I have to shake my head at some of the articles on this site - are you all obtuse or are there some of you out there that agree with me? We need the 3 esses. SKILL, SIZE and SPEED. PLEASE.

and @Naky....do you think Reinhart has finished growing at 17? if you do, then give your head a shake! i went from 6 feet and 165 at 17 to 6' 2" and 195 by the time i was 22! Reinhart like most his age have not stopped growing yet and, if Ekblad was gone and we had a chance to get Reinhart and passed, and he grew into a 6'2" or 6'3" 200 pound center, which we need by the way, right? then every Oiler hockey board would be constantly whining that we DIDN'T take him!

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#38 Sliderule
April 02 2014, 05:50PM
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Reinhart is not undersized.

He is 6-1 and 183 lbs at 18 which is about the same as Hall was in draft year. The Nuge was at least 10 lbs lighter and with a slimmer build.

Reinhart has put up monster playoff numbers against a very good team.He also was relied on at WJC which the Nuge did not make.

Unfortunately he will most likely be gone before the oilers pick.

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#39 Ianf
April 02 2014, 05:52PM
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Is bennet not like 8 months younger? In a tougher league? With sandpaper in his game?

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#40 Rama Lama
April 02 2014, 07:00PM
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If I'm in charge........I would take the meanest, biggest, skilled centerman available. Trade down if you must as these players rarely go in the top five........but every team covets these types of players.

The draft to start planning for is slated for next year, as most scouts state this will be the best draft in the last twenty years. One scout stated there could be as many as four or five generational players available........if that is the case maybe we trade down and try for another first round draft choice for next year.

For our situation I think selecting Ekblad is the only sound option.

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#41 Senator Theo
April 02 2014, 05:14PM
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mesa wrote:

it was latte .

Maybe if he left a little earlier, he wouldn't have to hurry so much and wouldn't be latte.

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#42 hagargt
April 02 2014, 11:43PM
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The Last Big Bear wrote:

For 2C options, who are upcoming UFAs, and 31 or younger, the list includes Paul Stastny, Steve Ott, Mikhail Grabovski, Derek Roy, etc.

How many first pairing defencemen under the age of 35 are available as UFAs? And I don't mean first pairing in Edmonton, I mean first pairing on their current team...

I disagree 100% that the Oilers, who have the single worst defence in the entire NHL, need a 2nd line centre more than they need defence. But even if they did, its much easier to acquire a 2nd line centre than it is to acquire an elite defenceman.

But in either case, the Oilers should not be looking to draft that player, the franchise can't afford to wait 5 more years to address their glaring needs.

I can only prop you once for two good points. It seems to be a 50/50 mix or worse on the favor to trade picks, but like you said, and others before you, this HAS to end!! The people that think we can draft our way into a cup are off point. Can you imagine the salary cap hit having ebs, hall, nuge, yak, eckblad, and mcdavid when it all finally "clicks"?? Give your heads a shake.. start making some trades that require balls, or just leave and make way for people that will.

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#43 Step Daddy J
April 02 2014, 06:21PM
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The 2014 NHL Draft Is Getting More Interesting By The Minute ! I can't wait for the draft lottery . I'm so excited . Reinhart , Ekblad , Leon , Bennet , We Can't Lose !!

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#44 Fasteddy
April 02 2014, 06:27PM
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I've watched a significant number of Reinhart's games, and I can't fathom that there's a better prospect elsewhere. He is the best forward in the WHL by a mile, (yes at this age even), and the play almost never ends on his stick. Draisaitl should not be mentioned in the same breath, (keep in mind I'm referring to NOW, I'm no expert on forecasting these guys). If the Oilers have a chance to draft Reinhart, they almost can't go wrong. Ekblad scares me; is he three or four years from being a number one/two dman? Will he ever be the "Mr Everything" dman? (by most accounts he isn't dominant physically, which certainly brings into question whether he's an ace or a guy that can run the pp down the road). Don't get me wrong; no one would be happier than I if he was the next Doughty, but boy there have been a lot of highly regarded dmen that take far longer, if ever, to turn into that kind of player.

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#45 oilcountry
April 02 2014, 06:31PM
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I am all for Ekblad, but if he's not there and we pick at 2 it has to be BPA which would be Reinhardt in my books.

He has decent size,there are no thortons where were picking and to me drasaitl has way more risk.

Take Reinhart and start trading spare parts for what we need, besides it will be hilarious listening to the eastern media telling us how bad we are.

I am okay with winning 10-8 again worked out great in the 80's

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#46 hagargt
April 02 2014, 07:33PM
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Serious Gord wrote:

Trade the damn pick. This team needs help NOW not three to four years from now.

The management uses the draft as a distraction to bridge the end of season screams for bloody murder,to the over-hyped fight song that is the oilers every new season. If they didn't have their draft pick, we would have nothing to look forward to, and thus our attention would still be on firing lowe/others. It has worked for how many years now?

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#47 The Crystal Ball
April 02 2014, 09:00PM
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Kevin wrote:

You need size with one of your top 2 centres

Signed,

The Colorado Avalanche, New Jersey Devils, Detroit Red Wings and Chicago Blackhawks

2000- Present

I would love to have a big Center, but one with skill. Eric Lindros was traded for a half dozen guys and little known apter Forsberg became the best player. Jason Bonsignore had size too.

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#48 Kevin
April 02 2014, 09:39PM
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@The Crystal Ball

Go ask opposing players about Toews and Bergeron .

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#49 pelhem grenville
April 03 2014, 04:50AM
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...all I care about is that we get a centre...someone else can wait for ekblad to develop...my biggest fear is that if it's gonna be another draft day like Monahan to Calgary ahead us? I'm gonna spit...

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#50 David
April 03 2014, 11:51AM
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What about trying to pry OEL out of Phoenix? I think that is a lot more probable than trying to get Weber out of Nashville.

I have to agree with those saying that to trade the pick for a top Defenceman is the best choice. The team needs to start winning soon. If it doesn't start winning and changing the culture it will be even more difficult to attract free agents. UFA's already don't want to go to Edmonton.

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