APPROXIMATE TRADE VALUE

Lowetide
May 24 2014 03:50PM

gernat common 4

This is Martin Gernat. The young Slovak is progressing as a pro player after a solid junior career. Observers mention his connection to Martin Marincin from time to time—they're from Kosice, Slovakia, they both play defense, and they both need to eat an extra steak or two over the summer—and they do have a lot in common. One area they are different? The current trade value.

APPROX TRADE VALUE

Marincin is a young player who has some NHL games under his belt. He would fetch something very nice in trade, like a more established (if less promising) NHL defenseman. Gernat? Well, he just doesn't have a lot of value right now, despite a nice looking future. Why? Every NHL team has a Martin Gernat, a young defenseman scuffling through his AHL seasons trying to button down the defense while maintaining enough offensive production to get more power-play time. He's at a different point in his development. Here's an attempt to peg 'trade value' by player, and I'd love your input. I'll do a cross section of Oilers and Barons, along with a few select prospects.

  • Taylor Hall. He's not a trade item. You could trade your franchise player for another, like John Tavares, but why bother?
  • Nail Yakupov. Only deal that seems suitable is for an impact prospect like Nichushkin in Dallas or Jonathan Drouin. I doubt another team would trade for the struggling Russian now anyway, but you'd have to get exceptional talent to make it happen.
  • Jordan Eberle. Aside from the Wanye Wailing Wall that would be created outside Wanye manor, the Eberle trade would shock the foundations of the rebuild. You would have to get a quality offensive player in exchange, a James Neal or something near that level. Tough to make this trade, because teams rarely have enough depth to trade one of these without getting another right back.
  • David Perron. He's good, has term left on his deal and appears to be signable. For a team like Edmonton, that's all very valuable. You would need a similar contract in return. If St. Louis wanted him back I'd ask for TJ Oshie.
  • Sam Gagner. His contract and difficult season make this a very difficult time to trade him. Under normal circumstances, Gagner could fetch a quality player in his early 20's, but I think he might go for a 2nd and a 4th round pick, somewhere in there. It may be too harsh, but that contract is going to scare off teams this summer.
  • Bord Gordon. You could get a nice player back for Gordon -- he's signed, delivered a wonderful year and it would have meant more with a contender. I'll say Chris Tanev and make both sides of the deal mad at me.
  • Andrew Ference. Veteran struggled this season, but these guys have wonderful sustainability in trade. I bet you could get Matt Bartkowski and maybe a late pick from Boston (except they have too many defensemen, and many are aging).
  • Jeff Petry. I think you could get a significant value for Petry, he's young and has experience. Many Oiler fans aren't fond of him, but a team looking for puck movers would give up a nice asset. I bet NJD would offer Adam Larsson plus a little more for him. I don't think Edmonton should make that trade.
  • Martin Marincin. You could get a lot, he's still an entry level contract and played significant minutes as a rookie. NHL teams rarely trade these guys because why would you? I think you could get Curtis Glencross (one year from UFA) and a pick for him. That's a nice player.
  • Darnell Nurse. A high first-round pick this season, and like most of the players drafted around him, Nurse had a fine year. His value has not decreased.

So, there you go. Completely unscientific but a fun exercise. Agree? Disagree? I'd love to hear your thoughts.


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Lowetide has been one of the Oilogosphere's shining lights for over a century. You can check him out here at OilersNation and at lowetide.ca. He is also the host of Lowdown with Lowetide weekday mornings 10-noon on TSN 1260.
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#51 RexHolez
May 25 2014, 12:56AM
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Tim in Kelowna wrote:

If all MacT is gunna get for Sam Gagner is a 2nd and 4th round pick, then he has to keep him. The Oilers can't afford to be casting aside experienced players for picks.

Hate him all you want, but Gagner is a capable NHL forward, and trading him for a 2nd & 4th rounder wouldn't make the Oilers a better team (despite how "incredible" Acrobello is).

Couldn't agree more. Gagner has skill. He doesn't fit into the roster very well but that's the managements fault for building the team wrong. Move him to the wing or somthing but trading away nhl players for picks that will most likely never play in the NHL is a waste.

But who cares anymore?

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#52 HardBoiledOil
May 25 2014, 01:05AM
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^I don't want to give Gagner away either. more picks that only *could* play for the Oilers in the future for established Oiler players would leave us without a 2nd line center, unless you think the Oilers would just be able to sign a Stastny type player to replace him *just like that*?

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#53 anthony
May 25 2014, 01:46AM
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How do you have a job, these trade proposals are awful.

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#54 Mike Modano's Dog
May 25 2014, 04:41AM
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I like your trade proposals a lot. It's way easier to throw stones.

I wish we could do the Petry for Larsson trade - and I for one would do that in an instant.

Someone earlier mentioned Hartnell and Boyle. I think Hartnell is exactly what this team needs, and if you can get Boyle asset-free then I say we should overpay for him.

How is it that Kevin Lowe still has a job? I feel like many others do here. It's just moving deck chairs on the Titanic.

I see a big deal with Philly too. I'm going to guess that happens between our two teams, but with that said:

If there is any chance we may be able to draft Ekblad (the old d-men in the first round suck feeling) WE NEED TO HANG ONTO THAT PICK. Could be our Shea Weber, and I don't think it is such a slam-dunk he goes in the top two.

At the last minute heading into last year's draft the talk started that teams wanted the forwards over Seth Jones. Surprising but it happened, and although everyone seems to say he'll go in the top two...and I'm not saying he won't - keep the pick until you know.

Oh, and one more thing, I might trade the Draesaitl pick for another more NHL ready prospect instead, as was mentioned before. By the time he's ready to produce I fear our core will be gone.

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#55 oilerbuff
May 25 2014, 08:09AM
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@Casey

Trade from a position of strength to add to our weaknesses. if his value is that high, he is a good bargaining chip to do so. Nurse is near nhl ready as is Klefbom. I think nurse has more upside than Marincin and having too many inexperienced and young defensemen on an.nhl team isn't what we want moving forward. we are very weak in our system with forwards and our team needs a complete 3rd line right now and possibly an upgrade in the 2nd line centre position. one of our young defensemen has to be traded.

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#56 Thumby
May 25 2014, 09:43AM
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Spydyr wrote:

We have to many good defensmen.Said no team ever.

Gagner hurts the team defensively much more then he helps it offensively.

To this I might add that if the Oilers do get Ekblad, we can look forward to this defence core in 2 years or so:

Ekblad Shultz Nurse Klefbom Marincin

Kind of nice when you look at this list and see a lot of 6'3" or bigger D-men who can move the puck and skate...add a couple sledgehammer stay at home types and we're good for a decade back there...

Unfortunately, we'll be sucking it for 2 more years. Consolation Prize? Maybe some dude named Connor ends up here...

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#57 Old Retired Guy (A.K.A. Die-Nasty)
May 25 2014, 10:30AM
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big slick wrote:

I sort of agree with both of you. Gagner's value has fallen. Maybe it is only a 2nd and a 4th. But should the Oilers make that trade before July 1st this year? I say no! You wait for his value goes back up. Which it likely will. The only to do the 2nd/4th trade is to create cap space. The Oilers do not need it! The Oilers had to trade Hemsky; he was a soon to be free agent who would not sign a reasonable contract. If Gagner cannot fetch a 3/4 defenseman or a useful 3rd liner I say wait. Hemsky was a fire sale HE WAS GOING TO WALK every other team knew it. You have to ask for a real NHL player in return for Gagner. Otherwise no deal...Oilers should wait. You cannot compare Gagner's value to Hemsky's two totally different situations.

Problem with that is, that the Oilers management are weak. They are desperate having missed the playoffs for eight seasons. They are in the firing line of an angry fan base. But even putting that aside, they simply don't have the courage to trade players when they are at optimal value. If they keep Gagner for another year and he plays better, they will not trade him!!! They only trade players who are under-performing or who question them in public, hence why Gagner is on the block now, and Yak is also in a precarious situation.

It's Arnott and Hemsky and Horcoff and Souray and Lupul etc...all over again.

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#58 Joy S. Lee
May 25 2014, 10:59AM
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I agree that the Oilers have to allow Gagner to rebuild his value before dealing him. Work at getting the guy to have another 8-point night, and deal him the next day. That's what they should have done in the first place.

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#59 Joy S. Lee
May 25 2014, 11:01AM
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I agree with Modano; that Petry for Larsson and a pick (3rd?) deal is a winner in my mind... and I've been a booster of Petry's potential almost from day one. This deal would help to even out the lineup (Petry is a right-side D-man, Larsson a left, and we have more right-side guys). Petry lacks the meanness required for his role, although he showed signs late in the year for developing it. That's the risk you take in trading him - if he adds nastiness, he's a bona-fide playoff defenseman. Larsson's upside is tremendous, however, and he would further add to the super-young but talented core being built here. This deal actually makes some sense.

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#60 Joy S. Lee
May 25 2014, 11:24AM
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Besides Gagner and Petry, I would only consider moving from that list: Gordon, Perron, and Ference, though Marincin could be considered for the precise reasons Lowetide mentioned - the youthfulness of the lineup already and Gernat developing.

Why those guys? Because of all the veterans they've brought in to bring this team along, nothing has worked. Strong defense prospects are already in place; time to fill out the remainder of the roster with youth that can develop along with the young core, and let's see where that takes us. If the coach is as described by most: in his own initial stages of development, then this further makes sense to allow him to work on the same level as his players.

But then, I believe that the number of good young hockey players in the world is increasing, while the difference in skill-level amongst them is closing. And this is why you see more and more undrafted and late picks making significant contributions to their teams. It's time to wake up to that truth, and we have precisely the team to do it with. It would be nice to see MacT pick up as many later picks (for not much?) as is possible, and building his stable some more. Still lots to be added at the minor-league level, too.

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#61 madjam
May 26 2014, 07:27AM
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Cherry says the small forwards will be out of game basically in 5-10 years . He makes some good points . Whether you agree or not , where does that leave our core squad with so many on the slighter side in height ? Is it a major foreseeable problem for us and future competitiveness ? If so , then how can we rectify it ? Whom should go , and whom should stay if a major overhaul in that regard takes place ?

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#62 big slick
May 26 2014, 10:24AM
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Old Retired Guy (A.K.A. Die-Nasty) wrote:

Problem with that is, that the Oilers management are weak. They are desperate having missed the playoffs for eight seasons. They are in the firing line of an angry fan base. But even putting that aside, they simply don't have the courage to trade players when they are at optimal value. If they keep Gagner for another year and he plays better, they will not trade him!!! They only trade players who are under-performing or who question them in public, hence why Gagner is on the block now, and Yak is also in a precarious situation.

It's Arnott and Hemsky and Horcoff and Souray and Lupul etc...all over again.

I think management will continue to be patient with this rebuild. With MacT I think management is stronger but coaching is weaker than a year ago. There is only weak justification for keeping the status quo in the coaching area.

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#63 chris
May 26 2014, 12:25PM
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the oilers have been tanking for years now and it’s no secret across the league that they have been doing it on purpose. look at what’s been going on, every year they have been firing the coaches and bringing in someone else who has no NHL head coaching experience, The oiler management is loving all these first over all picks, I’m starting to think they like bottom feeding.

Ekblad is a big body however I’ve herd bad things about his skating which makes me nervous.

if ekblad is gone when the oilers pick, we will get a nice centermen could fit in the 2nd line centre roll. if that happens we should then trade ganger for a third line player with size and some offensive abilities .

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#64 White
May 26 2014, 12:32PM
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madjam wrote:

Cherry says the small forwards will be out of game basically in 5-10 years . He makes some good points . Whether you agree or not , where does that leave our core squad with so many on the slighter side in height ? Is it a major foreseeable problem for us and future competitiveness ? If so , then how can we rectify it ? Whom should go , and whom should stay if a major overhaul in that regard takes place ?

If you listen to what Cherry has to say at all I laugh at you.

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#65 number99
May 26 2014, 12:32PM
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Hey LT, just curious why you wouldnt pull the trigger on a Petry for Larsson deal? Larsson is younger, bigger, and at least on paper looks like he has a bit more potential than Petry?

Thanks

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#66 Old Retired Guy (A.K.A. Die-Nasty)
May 26 2014, 01:27PM
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I'm beginning wonder if one deal the Oilers may be looking at (among many) is Gagner and our 3rd overall to NYI for Griffin Reinhart and their 5th overall.

With the Oilers thinking that their are 4 centres and Ekblad available if you include Nylander.

Oilers end up with an NHL ready Griffin Reinhart and a second line centre. ( Sam Reinhart, Draisaitl, Nylander)

Deal only works if someone the Islanders really want is still there at pick 3. Ekblad or Bennett?

Read a rumour somewhere that Florida was interested in Nylander, so maybe it's Florida who works a deal to swap picks with NYI.

With no one player as the run away consensus #1 in this draft, chances of some kind of shuffle amongst the top five or six teams seems greater.

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#67 LOIL99
May 26 2014, 02:37PM
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OilersDynasty wrote:

His first year was a shortened one. He had 10 goals in 46 games. Over a full 82, that is 20. This year he had 19, one off of 20, so yeah, perennial, I think so, and based off the way he's been playing in these playoffs, it's not a stretch to say that he is.

So a guy scores (or is on pace for) 20 goals for 2 years makes him a perennial 20-30 goal guy? I guess that makes him a perennial 20-60 goal guy as well! Sign em up!

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#68 LOIL99
May 26 2014, 02:39PM
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@michael

""If the Oilers were to get a package together that included:

1.Scott Laughton 2.The 18th overall pick 3.Brayden Colburn 4.Brayden Shenn

What would it take? The #3 pick and a Marincin or a Klefbom?""

Is this a serious post? You think Phili would give up a top end prospect, a first round pick, a top 4 man AND a young top 9 C for the #3 and a rookie dman? Wow, we Oilers fans really are delusional...

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#69 Smokey
May 26 2014, 02:50PM
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Frankly rather then talking bout trading Gagner, firing the bum coaches who haven't been able to teach the defensive side of the game. The saddest indictment on the Oilers this past season is watching a player like Sam Gagner struggle defensively after 7 full years with some of the same coaches. Its a travesty we talk about trading him, how bout properly coaching the kids. Sam will figure out the game, keep him here. Cause in 3-4 years when hes a 65 point player and reasonably defensively this organization will look stupid for not developpng him properly.

I think Bennett and Reinhardt will be gone at the time the Oilers will pick. The choice will be for my fellow kraut or Eckblad. Organizational need is for a center, and my hope is Eckblad is gone before, cause I don't wish for the next 20 years I wish we took them and Calgary is happy as pigs. I think it goes Reinhardt, Eckblad, Bennet, the Big Germ. I also think its crazy people think Reinhardt may be available at 4. I think if Nuge is his comparable and the Oil have a shot at him, they gotta take him.

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