THE SCHULTZ AND PETRY CONTRACTS

Lowetide
June 01 2014 02:37PM

schultz common1

This summer will see a lot of turnover on defense—we're seeing a mass exit already, and now await the new arrivals. Two players who are facing a key summer are RH blue Justin Schultz and Jeff Petry. Those right-handed defensemen don't grow on trees and there aren't a bunch who can play 21 minutes a night. Edmonton has two, and both have reached rfa status. What could we see this summer?

petry common

It's interesting to break down the Oilers defense this past season, and to have a good look at how Dallas Eakins deployed the group. I like to use the Vollman Sledgehammer, it breaks things down in one graph, and you can recognize things at a glance.

VOLLMAN SLEDGEHAMMER

oilers defense 13-14 with klefbom

Fascinating graph. Top to bottom it's quality of competition, so Petry and Marincin were facing the toughest opponents, followed by Ference and Schultz. Oscar Klefbom had the third easiest competition, but his zone starts were beyond severe—that's really kind of crazy for a rookie, but he did pretty well. Bubble size is TOI per game, and the colors are Corsi Rel: Petry is blue (good), Klefbom is light blue (pretty good) and Ference is the color of a man drowning.

Marincin? His color is best described as "impossible" for this Oilers team. And yet, there it is.

RIGHTHANDED DEFENSEMEN

petry6

Jeff Petry played over 21 minutes a night in 2013-14, and Justin Schultz was north of 23. Of the 59 defenseman last season to play more per game than Petry (I'm not going to include Byfuglien), 24 are right-handed. I expect many of them play less difficult minutes, but either way I'm pretty confident we are looking at one of the 30 best RH defenders in the game at this time.

SIGN THEM BOTH? AND FOR HOW MUCH?

marincin and schultz

I sign both players, and Petry long term. For me, those two righties will be key to the future, as the Oilers graduate more Marincins into the NHL.

It's going to cost a lot of coin. I don't believe either player will approach the Justin Faulk contract ($29M over 6 years), but this is going to be eat a large part of the summer cap.

What do you think? Sign these men to contracts over $4 million a year, or send them away understanding there's nothing left behind them?

(OKC photos by Rob Ferguson, all rights reserved)

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Lowetide has been one of the Oilogosphere's shining lights for over a century. You can check him out here at OilersNation and at lowetide.ca. He is also the host of Lowdown with Lowetide weekday mornings 10-noon on Team 1260.
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#101 TigerUnderGlass
June 02 2014, 01:53PM
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@Zarny

I don't see how Schultz' agent can ask for a 5+ year deal any higher than $4M per with guys like Fowler and Hedman locked in at that value.

I see how. He's asking for it from the Oilers.

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#102 Zarny
June 02 2014, 01:55PM
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camdog wrote:

Terrible examples are picking players from better organisations to help illustrate a point. The reality is that the Oilers have trouble developing players, this is not new nor is it a myth.

Whether an organization is better or not is irrelevant. An arbitrator isn't going to award Tyson Barrie more money than Schultz because Colorado did better in the standings. That's not how it works I'm afraid. Comparisons are for the most part on an individual basis since team success is largely a function of better teammates.

And the myth is the Oilers have trouble developing players. Hall scored 80 pt in 75 games as a 21-22 y/o. Eberle has developed light years ahead most players drafted before him in 2008. Landeskog is the only player drafted in 2011 that is on par (or perhaps ahead) of Nuge. Huberdeau, Larsson, Strome, Zibanejad, Couturier etc are all lagging Nuge's development and all are on better teams.

The reality is the Oilers put young players into rolls before they are ready and fans start comparing them to players 3-4+ yrs older and say they aren't developing.

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#103 Zarny
June 02 2014, 01:56PM
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TigerUnderGlass wrote:
I don't see how Schultz' agent can ask for a 5+ year deal any higher than $4M per with guys like Fowler and Hedman locked in at that value.

I see how. He's asking for it from the Oilers.

Haha...touche.

Schultz can ask but he won't get it.

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#104 Casey
June 02 2014, 03:15PM
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Schultz at 2 mil 2 year max. If he actually learns how to play defense than reward him with a better contract. He's a 23 year old defensemen yet dosen't know a thing about defense.

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#105 Casey
June 02 2014, 03:25PM
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Zarny wrote:

Whether an organization is better or not is irrelevant. An arbitrator isn't going to award Tyson Barrie more money than Schultz because Colorado did better in the standings. That's not how it works I'm afraid. Comparisons are for the most part on an individual basis since team success is largely a function of better teammates.

And the myth is the Oilers have trouble developing players. Hall scored 80 pt in 75 games as a 21-22 y/o. Eberle has developed light years ahead most players drafted before him in 2008. Landeskog is the only player drafted in 2011 that is on par (or perhaps ahead) of Nuge. Huberdeau, Larsson, Strome, Zibanejad, Couturier etc are all lagging Nuge's development and all are on better teams.

The reality is the Oilers put young players into rolls before they are ready and fans start comparing them to players 3-4+ yrs older and say they aren't developing.

How did Schremp,Dubnyk,Paajarvi,Plante,Hartikainen,Vandevelde,Nash,Omark,Czerwonka,Blain,Chorney, Teubert,Perhonen,MOtin,Kynatar work out for us?

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#106 Spydyr
June 02 2014, 05:32PM
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Happy wrote:

"The numbers that really matter are wins and loses.How have the Oilers been doing since Petry has been (as you say) a top pairing defence man?"

LMAO, you use that as an indictment on him??? HAHAHA, that's hilarious. How has the teams record been since Taylor Hall arrived? Oh right garbage, therefore he must not be a first line player, he's just a first liner on a terrible team.

If you think Hall and Petry are comparable players.I'm not even going to waste my time discussing it with you.

One is a beast the other is a 4-5 defenceman.

One is carrying the team the other is playing over his head.

I'll leave it to you to figure out who is who.

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#107 The Last Big Bear
June 02 2014, 08:08PM
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@Zarny

Oh man, oh man.

$8m for Schultz would be a thing of Beauty.

That's what the Ranger's top pairing makes COMBINED.

$8m for Schultz coming off a bridge contract and $4m for Petry two years from now would be more than Doughty and Voynov will be getting paid.

Keith will still be signed at a $5.5m cap hit, so Schultz and Petry would probably be making more than Keith and Seabrooke too.

VALUE.

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#108 Blucifer Copperballs
June 03 2014, 09:36AM
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camdog wrote:

a) salary cap world, bad cap teams are perennial losers b)ticket prices are correlated to expenses c)jealousy (aka the Horcoff haters) d)embarrassment factor (as somebody else pointed out (http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2014-04-24/smartest-spenders-in-sports-2014)

Just a few factors to consider :(

That was an interesting article you referenced. How is Phoenix getting so much bang for their buck?

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#109 michael
June 03 2014, 01:29PM
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Zarny wrote:

You might think the bridge contract for Subban was fair; that doesn't change the fact the Canadians are going to spend $9-10M more on Subban over the next 3 seasons because of that bridge contract.

In terms of cap management, which really is the issue, it was a terrible decision.

The reality is $4M per season is not silly money for a Dman. Subban is going to get paid over double that amount. $4M per year is 20% less than Phi signed Andrew MacDonald for this year.

If Schultz puts up 35 pts and is still only a 4-6 D defensively 3 years from now he's still getting paid over $4M simply because that's the market for D who put up over 30 pts but aren't shutdown guys defensively. That's the economic reality of the NHL.

There is virtually no chance Schultz makes less than $4M 3 years from now and that is without cap inflation which is absolutely a reality. Rookies are capped and stars don't take max contracts in the NHL. So middling vets end up making a fortune. It's what led to Dennis Wideman getting $5.25M towards the end of the last CBA.

As for Hall, Eberle and Nuge the hoard can cry all they want; they were wrong.

If Hall had signed a bridge the Oilers would be paying $8M+ next summer. He'll over-perform $6M on his worst year till he's 28. Eberle and Nuge on their worst year might only justify something in the $5M-$5.5M range but certainly have the potential to over-perform their contracts. Combined the very worst the Oilers do with those 3 combined is break even and most years they are getting a deal.

It doesn't really matter what you think or feel a guy is worth. It only matters what an arbitrator or another GM will give them. Willie Mitchell made $3.5M last year. Those who think Petry will get less than $4M are on crack.

Willie Mitchell is an unfair comparison. He is a veteran defencemen with a Stanley Cup to his name.

Petry has less than 300 games under his belt.Its not even a comparable.

Petry gets 2.8-3-2 and that is for 3 years I believe.

As to cap management that is fair to put out there.Who can guess where the economics of the NHL will be 3-5 years from now.I certainly am no visionary of the future.

Can you tell me what the cap will be in 5 years Zarny? I am being facetious but my point is that signing players like Petry and JS vs a HAll and RNH and Eberle to 6-7 year contracts is badcap management. Sure you sign your core because you have an idea of the return your getting from them in terms of points per season.But to give JS based on 120 games a 4-5 million dollar contract for -7 years is based on fantasy and conjecture.Its not real. Same with Petry.

You need to cap manage your team based on real numbers not fiction

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#110 deantime419
June 10 2014, 03:57PM
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2 x 3mil for Schultz. 4 x 4mil for Petry.

Then sign Markov for 2 x 5mil. Gilbert for 1 x 2mil. Fraser or (insert tough 7th dman here) 1 x 1mil.

I'm just not comfortable giving Niskanen big bucks and term. He seemed to "fit" well in Pittsburgh this year and stepped up when injuries occured but before this year he was a bottom pairing dman.

Just get some stop gaps until we know what we have with our young D and get some help for Schultz offensively. Markov would also be a good mentor to Yakupov (as would Kulemin/Grabo if they could snag them).

Robidas and Nikitin are interesting names but if we sign 2 D, I'd prefer one to be on a 1 year in case Klefbom or Nurse earn a spot.

Then we have our obligatory tough guy 7th dman.

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