A STORY ABOUT OLD TOM

Lowetide
June 25 2014 05:51PM

gagner common1

Darren Dreger of TSN told the nation today two things: the Oilers are "looking for a center" and "Sam Gagner's name seems to surface annually at the draft." For Sam Gagner, center, that suggests this fall is going to see at least a position change, maybe more. Question: how much trade value does 89 have?

WHAT A DIFFERENCE A YEAR MAKES

dreger gagner

Gagner would "settle" for a three-year deal for $4.8 million dollars.

I'm not going to go over the season again, you know the mugging and the result and now we are here. In the interest of full disclosure, I've always been a Gagner fan and love his sublime passing ability. Back when I learned the game, passing and making a pass and the fundamentals behind them were a major part of the discussion.

Gagner's play without the puck was always an issue, and his minutes against softer opponents always seemed like slow progress. In each of the last three seasons, Gagner played softer minutes when Horcoff was fading and baby Nuge was learning to swim against the NHL currents.

SAM GAGNER 10-11

  • 5×5 points per 60: 1.91 (2nd among regular forwards)
  • 5×4 points per 60: 2.51 (9th among regular forwards)
  • Qual Comp: 7th toughest among regular forwards
  • Qual Team: 4th best teammates among regular forwards
  • Corsi Rel: 7.0 (4th best among regular forwards) (-3.81 CorsiON)
  • Zone Start: 50.9% (6th easiest among regular forwards)
  • Zone Finish: 53.4% (best among regular forwards)
  • Shots on goal/percentage: 138/10.9% (8th among F’s>100 shots)
  • Boxcars: 68gp, 15-27-42

SAM GAGNER 11-12

  • 5×5 points per 60: 1.96 (4th among regular forwards)
  • 5×4 points per 60: 3.66 (6th among regular forwards)
  • Qual Comp: 8th toughest among regular forwards
  • Qual Team: 6th best teammates among regular forwards
  • Corsi Rel: 6.3 (4th best among regular forwards) (-2.18 CorsiON)
  • Zone Start: 54.1% (4th easiest among regular forwards)
  • Zone Finish: 51.8% (4th best among regular forwards)
  • Shots on goal/percentage: 149/12.1% (5th among F’s>100 shots)
  • Boxcars: 75, 18-29-47

SAM GAGNER 12-13

  • 5×5 points per 60: 1.84 (4th among regular forwards)
  • 5×4 points per 60: 6.15 (1st among regular forwards, 19th in NHL)
  • Qual Comp: 5th toughest among regular forwards (2nd line opp)
  • Qual Team: 6th best teammates among regular forwards
  • Corsi Rel: -4.3 (9th best among regular forwards) (-14.44 CorsiON)
  • Zone Start: 51.4% (4th easiest among regular forwards)
  • Zone Finish: 52.0% (3rd best among regular forwards)
  • Shots on goal/percentage: 113/12.39% (2nd among F’s>70 shots)
  • Boxcars: 48, 14-24-38

SAM GAGNER 13-14

  • 5×5 points per 60: 1.44 (6th among regular forwards)
  • 5×4 points per 60: 2.20 (6th among regular forwards)
  • Qual Comp: 4th toughest among regular forwards (2nd line opp)
  • Qual Team: 5th best teammates among regular forwards
  • Corsi Rel: 0.7 (6th best among regular forwards)
  • Corsi for % 5×5: 44.2
  • Corsi for % Rel 5×5: 0.0
  • Zone Start: 55.5% (4th easiest among regular forwards)
  • Zone Finish: 47.2% (5th best among regular forwards)
  • Shots on goal/percentage: 143/7% (7th among F’s>100 shots)
  • Boxcars: 67, 10-27-37

By last season, he was playing against 3rd line (10-11, 11-12) and 2nd line (12-13, 13-14) opposition. All of that during a rebuild, and starting in 2011 fall with a flat out rookie who probably weighed 165 soaking wet slowly taking away the heavy lifting. Sam couldn't play the toughs successfully.

Sam was too small one year, too slow the next.

The charmed life turned into a perfect storm for Samwise in 2013-14. His injury, added to a dreadful season and fan outrage reaching the boiling point, smashed together in an instant—and Oiler fans and observers spoke out against all that was wrong.

staples gagner

Missed assignments? That's not really telling it as it was. Sam Gagner, whether through injury or moments of indecision, was at the wrong place at the right time seemingly every shift.

And people. got. mad.

gagner snip

Blogs were written. Points were made. The crowd wore black. It was not good. Sam Gagner, the 2007 draft pick who charmed a city and blazed right up to the brink of 50 NHL points before shaving, saw the other side of playing in good old our town.

After such a long time in the second division, after such a long time of looking up at success without ever grabbing it, is it time to start again?

WHAT HAPPENED?

I'm always hesitant to imply any area of expertise when it comes to hockey players. If you want advice about how to succeed in hockey, Sutherby or Strudwick are your men. They've seen things up close and personal. I can cackle about a defensive sortie gone wrong and point at the guy who went ass over tea kettle, but it doesn't really help in explaining the game and finding out what happened.

Hockey players. If you can put up with the F-bombs, they're a very informative group.

I want to tell you something I learned from a guy who didn't play NHL hockey, although he was around it for much of his adult life. It's a story about Tom Poti, who at the time—coincidentally—was in his final days as an Oiler. And it was told by Mr. John Short.

One day, John was in the bowels of the CFRN building and I was asking him questions. This happened possibly 1,000 times in my 20s and 30s, and I listened more than talked. On this day, I asked John "what in h-e-double-hockey-sticks is wrong with Poti?"

John Short, who is a storyteller before he's anything, paused, and then delivered the following:

Every place Tom Poti played before the NHL, he never had a worry about the puck. In high school, and at Boston University, when he wanted the puck he just went over and got it. Tom Poti was the best player on the ice. He could dangle and pass and dipsy doodle whenever his heart desired.

And he never spent a minute in the minors.

When Poti arrived in the NHL, the game was different. Want the puck, kid? F-bomb! And so it began. Tom Poti never played the game the NHL men play until the moment he stepped on the ice, because he never had to, and in this way the on-the-job training began opening night 1998.

Tom Poti moved away from Edmonton on a March day over a decade ago, no doubt taking his crazy food stuff with him to Manhattan. He learned, he survived, and he flourished as a grown man after learning those lessons as an Oiler.

And Edmonton? We've got our new Poti. I always say there's a difference between having five years experience and having one year's experience five times. It's a mean thing to say about someone, even if true. I think Staples' words are as effective and less cruel so we'll go with those.

Whatever happens this week Sam Gagner, thank you. I've enjoyed your hockey and will continue to at your next stop.

Be it right wing, or Florida. Sail on.

C2a6955161684b5e3189319acfa5ebe4
Lowetide has been one of the Oilogosphere's shining lights for over a century. You can check him out here at OilersNation and at lowetide.ca. He is also the host of Lowdown with Lowetide weekday mornings 10-noon on TSN 1260.
Avatar
#51 Old Retired Guy (A.K.A. Die-Nasty)
June 26 2014, 07:59AM
Trash it!
3
trashes
Cheers
8
cheers
Kyle wrote:

You can't convince me a team like Nashville or Phoenix won't take a flier on Gagner. He can put points on the board, but needs a defensive minded team to insulate his gaffe's.

Two things.

1) You won't have to wait long to be convinced one way or the other. If he's moved at the draft then your intuition was correct....if not....your intuition was wrong. (Remember also it's as much about the contract as it is about the player) Keep in mind that if the Oilers try and trade Gagner now they cannot retain any salary.

2) Defensive minded teams are labeled as defensive for a reason. They play a defensive style of game. They wouldn't want a player as defensively deficient as Gagner. He wouldn't fit the system.

He needs to go to a younger team, preferably in the east, who is struggling to score....like Florida...

Avatar
#52 Old Retired Guy (A.K.A. Die-Nasty)
June 26 2014, 08:07AM
Trash it!
4
trashes
Cheers
9
cheers
sizedoesmatter wrote:

There are a lot of small forwards the excel in the NHL. I hope sam can rebound this year as an Oiler.Cogs reinvented his game Maybe Gagner will.

Really good point.

If the Oilers are forced to keep Gagner, I suspect they will do exactly what you've suggested here....try to turn him into Andrew Cogliano....their career paths are similar in many ways.

Avatar
#53 madjam
June 26 2014, 08:17AM
Trash it!
2
trashes
Cheers
5
cheers

Several teams could quite possibly take Gagner if they have cap space to fill and don't mind over spending like the Oilers did for Nikiten. Buffalo and Calgary (cringe) as an example . Unfortuneately I doubt the return would be much and another hole to fill as a consequence less desieable than him leaving . Probably more of a salary dump type trade again .

Avatar
#54 Zarny
June 26 2014, 08:39AM
Trash it!
6
trashes
Cheers
12
cheers
K_Mart wrote:

Can't believe he peaked offensively at 18, and won't bbelieve it. Maybe hell never figure out the defensive side of hockey, but there's a 60pt season somewhere in his future.

Don't trade him at low value.

Why on earth would anyone think Gagner peaked offensively at 18 when he had 38 pt in 48 games during the lockout?

It's baffling that some people could be so obtuse as to discount a shortened season?

I guess by that logic Sidney Crosby's 2 worst years were when he put up 66 PT in 41 games and 56 PT in 36 games. I mean that works out to 135 and 132 PT over 82 games compared to the 104 PT he got this year but you know...he only got 66 and 56 so really you have to question why he was on the first line because you know...pace means nothing.

Avatar
#55 Vinny
June 26 2014, 09:32AM
Trash it!
6
trashes
Cheers
14
cheers

If they can pay Nikitin $4.5 as an actual NHL player, then we can pay Gagner $4.8 as an actual NHL player.

He'll get better, last year will be his worst year until he turns 30.

Avatar
#56 Tim in Kelowna
June 26 2014, 09:43AM
Trash it!
2
trashes
Cheers
13
cheers

Gagner has a lot to offer. Move him to the wing and see what kind of season he has. His cap hit is too high, but that's irrelevant for the Oilers this season.

Avatar
#57 HardBoiledOil
June 26 2014, 09:46AM
Trash it!
3
trashes
Cheers
6
cheers
Vinny wrote:

If they can pay Nikitin $4.5 as an actual NHL player, then we can pay Gagner $4.8 as an actual NHL player.

He'll get better, last year will be his worst year until he turns 30.

we've been saying Sam will get better every year he's played in the NHL and he hasn't. only the lockout year did he show something good with 38 points in 48 games. i keep wondering if Oiler fans will ever realize we likely won't be winning a cup with Sam as our 2nd line center? he can produce points, granted, but his other deficiencies are the problem. he just doesn't skate well enough, doesn't play defense well enough and isn't big enough to play it physical with other big centers. if they don't trade him and they want to move him to the wing, that's fine because i too think that he may actually have a chance to flourish there, and his deficiencies might not be as glaring on the wing as it is at center.

Avatar
#58 GriffCity
June 26 2014, 09:57AM
Trash it!
3
trashes
Cheers
12
cheers

Unless it's a shootout, I don't want him on the ice. Fair to say Sam wont be winning the Selke any time this millennium. One of the worst guys without the puck i can think of...Oh and Yakupov of course, but he still has 5 more years to bring his game "up" to where Sams is defensively.

A gifted passer? Lol, sure maybe on the outdoor rink or in junior or in practice but rarely do his saucer attempts work in the NHL. I have never seen so many giveaways then when Sam tries a silly, soft saucer pass.

4.8 million??? Dollars??? pff, see ya!

Avatar
#59 The Last Big Bear
June 26 2014, 09:57AM
Trash it!
7
trashes
Cheers
9
cheers
Zarny wrote:

Why on earth would anyone think Gagner peaked offensively at 18 when he had 38 pt in 48 games during the lockout?

It's baffling that some people could be so obtuse as to discount a shortened season?

I guess by that logic Sidney Crosby's 2 worst years were when he put up 66 PT in 41 games and 56 PT in 36 games. I mean that works out to 135 and 132 PT over 82 games compared to the 104 PT he got this year but you know...he only got 66 and 56 so really you have to question why he was on the first line because you know...pace means nothing.

That's interesting, because when I suggested that Kyle Wellwood is a reasonable comparison for Gagner, you dismissed Wellwood as a "vastly inferior player".

Yet in his 24 year old season Wellwood posted 42 points in 48 games, following up from a 45 point NHL season prior, and an 87-point AHL campaign (NHLe of 39) before that.

This compared to Gagner's 24 year old season where he posted 38 points in 48 games, following up on 47 points from the previous season, and a 42 point season before that.

For young, undersized, playmaking, defensively-questionable one-way centremen, those trajectories look remarkably similar.

Wellwood was plagued by injuries the following season, and only posted 8 goals and 21 points in 59 games. Gagner was plagued by injuries the following season, and only posted 10 goals and 37 points in 67 games.

But this is a ridiculous comparison, right?

Because after that season, following many rumors and fan frustrations, Wellwood was traded to a much better team, where he never got the same soft minutes or top billing. He lost that "prospect" label, and became regarded as just a guy who could put up lots of assists with soft minutes but was a defensive liability even in those soft minutes.

And I mean come on, what are the odds of basically that exact same thing happening to Gagner, in the very near future? Sounds impossible, amirite?

Avatar
#60 TigerUnderGlass
June 26 2014, 10:01AM
Trash it!
1
trashes
Cheers
10
cheers
Marty wrote:

You are IMO the most saccaharin of all the sports talking heads in this town. Gagner sucks. Period, end of story. Lets hope the Oil swallow their pride (read KLowe) and dump Gagner's lazy ass and move on hoping the high foreheads in Oiler's management stop with these colossal blunders.

The Oil's bad drafts and trade record is the problem and that has been talked about to death.

Such mopery without a permit is unseemly. Cut bait and skid Gagner.

If you're going to insult someone you should probably double check the spelling from your word of the month calendar.

Avatar
#61 pkam
June 26 2014, 10:14AM
Trash it!
3
trashes
Cheers
7
cheers
Tim in Kelowna wrote:

Gagner has a lot to offer. Move him to the wing and see what kind of season he has. His cap hit is too high, but that's irrelevant for the Oilers this season.

About the same time the Oilers signed Gagner to 4.8M for 5 years, the Wings signed Steven Weiss to 4.9M for 5 years and Tampa signed Filppula to 5M for 5 years.

During this season, the Leafs signed Kessel to 8M for 8 years and Phaneuf to 7M for 7 years.

Couple of days ago, LA Kings just signed Gaborik to 4.875M for another 7 years. And Tampa signed Callahan to 5.8M for another 6 years.

TSN insiders just leaked out that Toews and Kane are asking 12M a year.

We just signed Nikitin to 4.5M for 2 years and Fayne will probably be around that figure if we can sign him.

Compare Gagner's salary to these contracts, do you still think his 4.8M for 3 years is too high?

Avatar
#62 TigerUnderGlass
June 26 2014, 10:15AM
Trash it!
4
trashes
Cheers
9
cheers
The Last Big Bear wrote:

That's interesting, because when I suggested that Kyle Wellwood is a reasonable comparison for Gagner, you dismissed Wellwood as a "vastly inferior player".

Yet in his 24 year old season Wellwood posted 42 points in 48 games, following up from a 45 point NHL season prior, and an 87-point AHL campaign (NHLe of 39) before that.

This compared to Gagner's 24 year old season where he posted 38 points in 48 games, following up on 47 points from the previous season, and a 42 point season before that.

For young, undersized, playmaking, defensively-questionable one-way centremen, those trajectories look remarkably similar.

Wellwood was plagued by injuries the following season, and only posted 8 goals and 21 points in 59 games. Gagner was plagued by injuries the following season, and only posted 10 goals and 37 points in 67 games.

But this is a ridiculous comparison, right?

Because after that season, following many rumors and fan frustrations, Wellwood was traded to a much better team, where he never got the same soft minutes or top billing. He lost that "prospect" label, and became regarded as just a guy who could put up lots of assists with soft minutes but was a defensive liability even in those soft minutes.

And I mean come on, what are the odds of basically that exact same thing happening to Gagner, in the very near future? Sounds impossible, amirite?

Because 0.36PPG is just as good as 0.55PPG?

Gagner has maintained a pace for 7 years that Wellwood was only able to reach during his best years.

Look at how far you're reaching to cling to this comparison. Either let it go or at least pretend to examine the players in context.

Avatar
#63 admiralmark
June 26 2014, 10:26AM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
5
cheers
madjam wrote:

Several teams could quite possibly take Gagner if they have cap space to fill and don't mind over spending like the Oilers did for Nikiten. Buffalo and Calgary (cringe) as an example . Unfortuneately I doubt the return would be much and another hole to fill as a consequence less desieable than him leaving . Probably more of a salary dump type trade again .

Definitely will be a salary dump if they trade him because his value is just that low. Unlike some I don't think his value will rise all that much either way. He never looked like a 2C ever. His D awareness is and alwatys has been atrocious.

Avatar
#64 The Last Big Bear
June 26 2014, 10:37AM
Trash it!
7
trashes
Cheers
6
cheers
TigerUnderGlass wrote:

Because 0.36PPG is just as good as 0.55PPG?

Gagner has maintained a pace for 7 years that Wellwood was only able to reach during his best years.

Look at how far you're reaching to cling to this comparison. Either let it go or at least pretend to examine the players in context.

So addressing player position, role, size, playing style, point production over the prior 3 seasons, age, injury status, and likelihood of being traded isn't sufficient context? What exactly are you looking for?

And my comparison is completely invalid because after 3 seasons of nearly identical production, at the same age, in the same role, following their career-best pace 48 game seasons, Wellwood and Gagner had identical goals-per-game, but Gagner had an extra assist once every 5 games? That invalidates my comparison?

Yes, Gagner is producing now what Wellwood produced during his best years. That's my point. These probably ARE Gagner's best years. Just like they were Wellwood's best years. And for the same reasons.

Avatar
#65 Spydyr
June 26 2014, 10:41AM
Trash it!
13
trashes
Cheers
5
cheers

To all you move Gagner to the wing people:

You own a car it drives great straight ahead(offense)but when you turn a corner(defence)you get a load banging noise.

Do you fix the car by only driving straight(move Gagner to the wing) or do you take the car to the shop and fix the problem(trade Gagner)

Pretty easy to see what has to be done now....no?

Avatar
#66 Shifty203
June 26 2014, 11:01AM
Trash it!
1
trashes
Cheers
7
cheers

So Lecavalier wants out of Philly. 37pts in 69 games last season. 32pts in 39 games the season before. I believe he has 4 or 5 years left at 4.5M per year. Might be a better option on the 2nd line centering Perron and Gag's.

Not exactley a bank breaking dollar value if the cap continues to climb every year.

Avatar
#67 TigerUnderGlass
June 26 2014, 11:15AM
Trash it!
2
trashes
Cheers
8
cheers
The Last Big Bear wrote:

So addressing player position, role, size, playing style, point production over the prior 3 seasons, age, injury status, and likelihood of being traded isn't sufficient context? What exactly are you looking for?

And my comparison is completely invalid because after 3 seasons of nearly identical production, at the same age, in the same role, following their career-best pace 48 game seasons, Wellwood and Gagner had identical goals-per-game, but Gagner had an extra assist once every 5 games? That invalidates my comparison?

Yes, Gagner is producing now what Wellwood produced during his best years. That's my point. These probably ARE Gagner's best years. Just like they were Wellwood's best years. And for the same reasons.

Gagner has played 7 years and he has never had a year as bad as most of Wellwood's. In fact, his worst year would qualify as one of Wellwood's best.

An extra assist every 5 games is worth 16 points over a season. Are you so set on defending this position that you'll pretend 16 points is nothing?

I don't think "nearly identical" means what you think it means.

Avatar
#68 Joy S. Lee
June 26 2014, 11:18AM
Trash it!
3
trashes
Cheers
2
cheers
pkam wrote:

About the same time the Oilers signed Gagner to 4.8M for 5 years, the Wings signed Steven Weiss to 4.9M for 5 years and Tampa signed Filppula to 5M for 5 years.

During this season, the Leafs signed Kessel to 8M for 8 years and Phaneuf to 7M for 7 years.

Couple of days ago, LA Kings just signed Gaborik to 4.875M for another 7 years. And Tampa signed Callahan to 5.8M for another 6 years.

TSN insiders just leaked out that Toews and Kane are asking 12M a year.

We just signed Nikitin to 4.5M for 2 years and Fayne will probably be around that figure if we can sign him.

Compare Gagner's salary to these contracts, do you still think his 4.8M for 3 years is too high?

For what we're getting out of him lately... yes. He's hurt the team more than helped it, regardless of dollars.

For what we MIGHT get out of him... maybe. He could actually learn to play some defense, and make better with the chances he helps create, then he'd be helping.

Pretty simple, really, other than having to determine if he will actually do those things or not... next year.

Avatar
#69 Joy S. Lee
June 26 2014, 11:18AM
Trash it!
3
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers
pkam wrote:

About the same time the Oilers signed Gagner to 4.8M for 5 years, the Wings signed Steven Weiss to 4.9M for 5 years and Tampa signed Filppula to 5M for 5 years.

During this season, the Leafs signed Kessel to 8M for 8 years and Phaneuf to 7M for 7 years.

Couple of days ago, LA Kings just signed Gaborik to 4.875M for another 7 years. And Tampa signed Callahan to 5.8M for another 6 years.

TSN insiders just leaked out that Toews and Kane are asking 12M a year.

We just signed Nikitin to 4.5M for 2 years and Fayne will probably be around that figure if we can sign him.

Compare Gagner's salary to these contracts, do you still think his 4.8M for 3 years is too high?

For what we're getting out of him lately... yes. He's hurt the team more than helped it, regardless of dollars.

For what we MIGHT get out of him... maybe. He could actually learn to play some defense, and make better with the chances he helps create, then he'd be helping.

Pretty simple, really, other than having to determine if he will actually do those things or not... next year.

Avatar
#70 Joy S. Lee
June 26 2014, 11:18AM
Trash it!
2
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers
pkam wrote:

About the same time the Oilers signed Gagner to 4.8M for 5 years, the Wings signed Steven Weiss to 4.9M for 5 years and Tampa signed Filppula to 5M for 5 years.

During this season, the Leafs signed Kessel to 8M for 8 years and Phaneuf to 7M for 7 years.

Couple of days ago, LA Kings just signed Gaborik to 4.875M for another 7 years. And Tampa signed Callahan to 5.8M for another 6 years.

TSN insiders just leaked out that Toews and Kane are asking 12M a year.

We just signed Nikitin to 4.5M for 2 years and Fayne will probably be around that figure if we can sign him.

Compare Gagner's salary to these contracts, do you still think his 4.8M for 3 years is too high?

For what we're getting out of him lately... yes. He's hurt the team more than helped it, regardless of dollars.

For what we MIGHT get out of him... maybe. He could actually learn to play some defense, and make better with the chances he helps create, then he'd be helping.

Pretty simple, really, other than having to determine if he will actually do those things or not... next year.

Avatar
#71 TigerUnderGlass
June 26 2014, 11:19AM
Trash it!
1
trashes
Cheers
6
cheers
Spydyr wrote:

To all you move Gagner to the wing people:

You own a car it drives great straight ahead(offense)but when you turn a corner(defence)you get a load banging noise.

Do you fix the car by only driving straight(move Gagner to the wing) or do you take the car to the shop and fix the problem(trade Gagner)

Pretty easy to see what has to be done now....no?

Trading Gagner wouldn't be "fixing the problem" it would be getting rid of the car for pennies on the dollar.

That might end up being the answer, but wouldn't it make sense to see if it can be fixed first?

Avatar
#72 TKB2677
June 26 2014, 11:19AM
Trash it!
1
trashes
Cheers
12
cheers

I would almost guarantee that Gagner will have a resurgence like Cogliano did with the ducks. He will go to a new team with new linemates and he will probably even go on to be a full time winger, just like Cogliano is now.

In 2 years time, an Edmonton media will have Gagner on the radio, just like Gregor had Cogliano. Gagner will talk about his time in Edmonton, his struggles. Then he will talk about how in Edmonton, he saw himself as a center and wasn't willing to make the change for the Oilers to the wing. Then he will talk about being traded. How it was a shock. How it made him re-evaluate his game, made him think about the holes in his game. How when he went to the new team he was willing to make the position, willing to accept a new role and willing to make the changes to his game to be a more complete player. Then he will go on to say how making all the changes was the best thing he ever did and he should of done it years ago. Pretty much exactly what Cogliano said earlier this year when he talked to Gregor.

Unfortunately with Gagner being traded is probably the only answer. He's been an Oiler for 7 yrs and his game is virtually the same as it was is first year. The holes he had in year 1 are still there after year 7. You can blame different coaches all you want but a lot of it is the players fault. Case in point, Cogliano. If Cogliano had of embraced all the changes to his game that he made as a Duck when he was an Oiler, he'd probably be an Oilers because he's a pretty effective 3rd line winger. With the Oilers, I don't see him turning that corner. It's been 7 years, how much longer do they wait? People beat the drum of "his trade value is too low" and that is a valid point. However, as a team and in order to be successful, the Oilers need a productive player playing in Gagner's spot. So if Gagner isn't going to be as successive as they need him to be and if he isn't going to do the things they need him to do as a player of his experience level and in his position, he's hurting the team with his play. So it comes to a point where you have to let go of the trade value argument and do what's best for the team and team success.

If you had an employee at work and after 7 years, he still did the same mistakes over and over again as he did when he first started, and he wasn't any better than he was yr 1, he'd be gone. So why is Gagner any different?

Avatar
#73 TigerUnderGlass
June 26 2014, 11:19AM
Trash it!
2
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers
Spydyr wrote:

To all you move Gagner to the wing people:

You own a car it drives great straight ahead(offense)but when you turn a corner(defence)you get a load banging noise.

Do you fix the car by only driving straight(move Gagner to the wing) or do you take the car to the shop and fix the problem(trade Gagner)

Pretty easy to see what has to be done now....no?

Edit: Mysterious double post

Avatar
#74 Joy S. Lee
June 26 2014, 11:23AM
Trash it!
1
trashes
Cheers
2
cheers
Shifty203 wrote:

So Lecavalier wants out of Philly. 37pts in 69 games last season. 32pts in 39 games the season before. I believe he has 4 or 5 years left at 4.5M per year. Might be a better option on the 2nd line centering Perron and Gag's.

Not exactley a bank breaking dollar value if the cap continues to climb every year.

Valid idea to consider, for this team. But wasn't Lecavalier horrific in the post season for Philly?

Doesn't he kind of look like he's on his last legs? Did he show anything when it counted? What's he doing this summer?

Those are valid questions. It would be a risky move, but sometimes those pay off. I used to love "Vinny." Hard to say...

Avatar
#75 The Last Big Bear
June 26 2014, 11:34AM
Trash it!
3
trashes
Cheers
4
cheers
Spydyr wrote:

To all you move Gagner to the wing people:

You own a car it drives great straight ahead(offense)but when you turn a corner(defence)you get a load banging noise.

Do you fix the car by only driving straight(move Gagner to the wing) or do you take the car to the shop and fix the problem(trade Gagner)

Pretty easy to see what has to be done now....no?

If the only thing anyone will give you in return is Kyle Clifford (a retro BigWheels tricycle), then you might be better off keeping Gagner on the wing for those days when you do just need to go a long way in a straight line.

The biggest problem with Gagner is his contract. At $4.8m, the cap ceiling teams won't want him because he doesn't play up to his cap hit. And the internal cap teams don't want him because he makes $5m in real cash.

Ryan Kesler has a $5m cap hit, and Jason Spezza makes $4m in real cash, and both of them have requested trades this summer. There have been lots of rumors around Mike Richards as well, for an extra couple hundred k.

Heck, if you want a one-dimensional playmaking centre, you can just dial up Brad Richards, and not give up any assets. Is Gagner better than Brad Richards? Is Richards going to get more than $5m cash with a $4.8m cap hit?

Derek Roy is a UFA this year too I believe. Is he going to cost more than $4.8m?

What value do you place on Gagner in that market?

Avatar
#76 The Last Big Bear
June 26 2014, 12:21PM
Trash it!
2
trashes
Cheers
6
cheers
TigerUnderGlass wrote:

Gagner has played 7 years and he has never had a year as bad as most of Wellwood's. In fact, his worst year would qualify as one of Wellwood's best.

An extra assist every 5 games is worth 16 points over a season. Are you so set on defending this position that you'll pretend 16 points is nothing?

I don't think "nearly identical" means what you think it means.

And Gagner's best years to date are pretty much the same as Wellwood's best years were at the same age. Gagner had more of them because he entered the NHL sooner. Gagner went straight to the NHL and put up 40-odd points, while Wellwood lit up the AHL, before coming to the NHL and scoring similar points totals in the same number of games at the same age as Gagner.

Over the past 3 years, Gagner has scored 42 goals and 122 points, in 190 games.

During he 3 year span at the same age, and under very similar circumstances, Wellwood scored 38 goals and 114 points in 188 games.

The season prior to that, Wellwood had 87 points in the AHL (for an NHLe of 39 points), while Gagner had 42 points (but may have been better served in the AHL).

You're acting like I'm comparing Gagner to a bowl of corn flakes. I'm comparing him to another centre who played the same role, with the same style of play, during the same age span, on a non-playoff team, who faces the same criticisms, and put up nearly identical numbers.

And yes, 114 points in 188 games and 122 points in 190 games is "nearly identical" in my mind.

Avatar
#77 Oilers
June 26 2014, 12:36PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
4
cheers

The difference between and successful organization and the Oilers.

Drafting the right players and developing. Then getting the odd UFA that wants to play with talent.

The Oilers and failing miserably at all three.

There overall draft record is terrible, one of the worst in the NHL. They fail to develop those they draft to full potential. Because of these two points, no agent will send their prime assets, the marquee players to Edmonton (which we painfully need). We only get recycled overpaid garbage that our media and some fans think that will lead to a winning team.

The problem: Managment. Nothing will change till manangement is gone. The only this will happen is the fans need to realize, unfortunately, after more years of losing happens, and do what Vancouver did. We'll see who is better in a couple of years. Vancouver already has a better Coach.

Avatar
#78 Oilers
June 26 2014, 12:39PM
Trash it!
4
trashes
Cheers
6
cheers
The Last Big Bear wrote:

If the only thing anyone will give you in return is Kyle Clifford (a retro BigWheels tricycle), then you might be better off keeping Gagner on the wing for those days when you do just need to go a long way in a straight line.

The biggest problem with Gagner is his contract. At $4.8m, the cap ceiling teams won't want him because he doesn't play up to his cap hit. And the internal cap teams don't want him because he makes $5m in real cash.

Ryan Kesler has a $5m cap hit, and Jason Spezza makes $4m in real cash, and both of them have requested trades this summer. There have been lots of rumors around Mike Richards as well, for an extra couple hundred k.

Heck, if you want a one-dimensional playmaking centre, you can just dial up Brad Richards, and not give up any assets. Is Gagner better than Brad Richards? Is Richards going to get more than $5m cash with a $4.8m cap hit?

Derek Roy is a UFA this year too I believe. Is he going to cost more than $4.8m?

What value do you place on Gagner in that market?

Yup agree.

To all you Mac T fans, this is his problem, now were are stuck with another bad Oiler Management decision.

A 12 year old running a lemonade stand could do a better job and Lowe and Mac T.

Avatar
#79 Nuggets
June 26 2014, 12:47PM
Trash it!
2
trashes
Cheers
2
cheers
Ambassador humantorch wrote:

Nah, Kane'd never come here.

Not what I meant, but ok.

Avatar
#80 LOIL99
June 26 2014, 12:56PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
9
cheers
Spydyr wrote:

To all you move Gagner to the wing people:

You own a car it drives great straight ahead(offense)but when you turn a corner(defence)you get a load banging noise.

Do you fix the car by only driving straight(move Gagner to the wing) or do you take the car to the shop and fix the problem(trade Gagner)

Pretty easy to see what has to be done now....no?

Mr. Spydyr, what you've just said is one of the most insanely idiotic things I have ever heard. At no point in your rambling, incoherent response were you even close to anything that could be considered a rational thought. Everyone in this room is now dumber for having listened to it. I award you no points, and may God have mercy on your soul.

Avatar
#81 Zarny
June 26 2014, 01:30PM
Trash it!
1
trashes
Cheers
8
cheers
The Last Big Bear wrote:

That's interesting, because when I suggested that Kyle Wellwood is a reasonable comparison for Gagner, you dismissed Wellwood as a "vastly inferior player".

Yet in his 24 year old season Wellwood posted 42 points in 48 games, following up from a 45 point NHL season prior, and an 87-point AHL campaign (NHLe of 39) before that.

This compared to Gagner's 24 year old season where he posted 38 points in 48 games, following up on 47 points from the previous season, and a 42 point season before that.

For young, undersized, playmaking, defensively-questionable one-way centremen, those trajectories look remarkably similar.

Wellwood was plagued by injuries the following season, and only posted 8 goals and 21 points in 59 games. Gagner was plagued by injuries the following season, and only posted 10 goals and 37 points in 67 games.

But this is a ridiculous comparison, right?

Because after that season, following many rumors and fan frustrations, Wellwood was traded to a much better team, where he never got the same soft minutes or top billing. He lost that "prospect" label, and became regarded as just a guy who could put up lots of assists with soft minutes but was a defensive liability even in those soft minutes.

And I mean come on, what are the odds of basically that exact same thing happening to Gagner, in the very near future? Sounds impossible, amirite?

Yes, it's a ridiculous comparison. It's simply disingenuous to isolate a comparison to the 2 years that are convenient for your argument.

With that logic Rob Brown and Brett Hull are good comparisons because Brown had 2 seasons with 118 and 80 PT and similar to Hull. The other 10 seasons are just irrelevant I suppose.

The reality is for better or worse, Gagner played in the NHL and put up 40 PT since he was 18 y/o. He's topped 40+ PT 6 of 7 years including the pro-rated lockout season.

Wellwood on the other hand spent 2 extra years in Jr followed by 2 years in the AHL. With an age comparison Gagner had five 40+ PT seasons before Wellwood played a single game in the NHL.

There is also the fact that Wellwood followed up his only 2 good seasons with a drop-off to 21, 27 and 25 PT. Gagner's season was considered a disaster last year finishing with 38 PT in 67 games which pro-rates to 45 PT over 82 games.

Similar trajectories? Ummm no...not even close.

If you want a good comparable for Gagner it would be Ray Whitney. Undersized with lapses of focus in the defensive zone pretty much his entire career. 40-48 PT until he hit his prime at 25 where he saw a jump in his production through his prime.

Fun fact - the average age for peak point production in the NHL is 25 not 21 or 22. It is far more likely Gagner follows the vastly more common trajectory than that of Kyle Wellwood based on 2 isolated years of comparison.

Curious, you must be completely devastated by Mikael Backlund being a complete and utter bust.

You know...given the fact he was drafted the same year as Gagner and to this day has 1 NHL season above 30 PT let alone six years above 40 PT. How on earth do the Flames keep a scrub like that on the roster?

Avatar
#82 Zarny
June 26 2014, 01:34PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
11
cheers
Spydyr wrote:

To all you move Gagner to the wing people:

You own a car it drives great straight ahead(offense)but when you turn a corner(defence)you get a load banging noise.

Do you fix the car by only driving straight(move Gagner to the wing) or do you take the car to the shop and fix the problem(trade Gagner)

Pretty easy to see what has to be done now....no?

Sorry but that is the dumbest analogy I've ever heard.

Full stop.

Avatar
#83 The Last Big Bear
June 26 2014, 05:32PM
Trash it!
3
trashes
Cheers
2
cheers
Zarny wrote:

Yes, it's a ridiculous comparison. It's simply disingenuous to isolate a comparison to the 2 years that are convenient for your argument.

With that logic Rob Brown and Brett Hull are good comparisons because Brown had 2 seasons with 118 and 80 PT and similar to Hull. The other 10 seasons are just irrelevant I suppose.

The reality is for better or worse, Gagner played in the NHL and put up 40 PT since he was 18 y/o. He's topped 40+ PT 6 of 7 years including the pro-rated lockout season.

Wellwood on the other hand spent 2 extra years in Jr followed by 2 years in the AHL. With an age comparison Gagner had five 40+ PT seasons before Wellwood played a single game in the NHL.

There is also the fact that Wellwood followed up his only 2 good seasons with a drop-off to 21, 27 and 25 PT. Gagner's season was considered a disaster last year finishing with 38 PT in 67 games which pro-rates to 45 PT over 82 games.

Similar trajectories? Ummm no...not even close.

If you want a good comparable for Gagner it would be Ray Whitney. Undersized with lapses of focus in the defensive zone pretty much his entire career. 40-48 PT until he hit his prime at 25 where he saw a jump in his production through his prime.

Fun fact - the average age for peak point production in the NHL is 25 not 21 or 22. It is far more likely Gagner follows the vastly more common trajectory than that of Kyle Wellwood based on 2 isolated years of comparison.

Curious, you must be completely devastated by Mikael Backlund being a complete and utter bust.

You know...given the fact he was drafted the same year as Gagner and to this day has 1 NHL season above 30 PT let alone six years above 40 PT. How on earth do the Flames keep a scrub like that on the roster?

My comparison covers 4 years, age 22-25, with 2 young productive years, a career-best shortened season, and an injury-plagued hangover season, all of which happened at the same ages.

Wellwood was traded at the end of this period, his new team soured on him, and his career foundered.

We have yet to see how Gagner will respond, but it looks like a trade is likely, and he'll need to turn his defensive play around real quick to stay in his new team's good graces.

And Gagner has already missed the boat for having a typical development trajectory. It is no longer a logical possibility, given that he has shown no material improvement in 7 years, and nothing he can do moving forward will make his developmental trend anything remotely typical.

And Backlund is an excellent counter-point to Gagner. He does every Gagner has not. backlund has shown slow, steady, consistent improvement every year, he is the best defensive center on the team, he has had top-tier advanced stats, he improves the results of literally every guy he plays with, and significantly outperforms his cap hit. all of which is the opposite of Gagner.

Backlund's production has of course been disappointing given his pedigree, but he has still been an on-ice contributor regardless of his point totals, while Gagner has been an on-ice liability despite his point totals.

Of course, as I said, the real problem with Gagner is his contract. Backlund makes less than 1/3 of what Gagner makes and is still an RFA. Of course neither of these guys is a franchise player, but one is worth his cap hit, and one is not.

Also, your closest comparison is a winger? Who spent 4 seasons in the minors, and broke out during the dead-puck era?

Comments are closed for this article.