DRAFT THOUGHTS AT 1AM

Lowetide
June 29 2014 01:01AM

draisaitl capture 1

The Edmonton Oilers entered the weekend with one lottery pick and 5 lottery tickets, and that's exactly what happened.

No. 3 overall Leon Draisaitl is already an Edmonton favorite, the big man said all the right things after being chosen to right the world from the center position.

  • Draisaitl: “I’m going to have to do my job and earn my spot if I want to play in that league and on that team,” he said. “I think they’re moving forward for sure and they made some good trades, (David) Perron, and the guys are getting older and more mature. This is just awesome right now.”

Source: Steven Whyno, Canadian Press

lagesson

William Lagesson was the next pick, he's a two-way defender with size and the ability to move the puck. Stu MacGregor made a point of mentioning how much he enjoys the battle. It'll be years before we see him, but I think that's good value for a 4th round selection.

ZACH NAGELVOORT

zach nagelvoort stats

You have to like that run of save percentages dating back as far as the eye can see. Goalies are tough to figure out, but this guy has a strong resume based purely on boxcars. Keeping in mind he was selected No. 111 overall I'm pleased with the pick.

  • No. 130: Liam Coughlin—I often have Kirk Luedeke from Red Line Report on the Lowdown, and he texted this to me today about Coughlin:Luedeke: “Big kid, can skate. Had him as my “super sleeper” a year ago, but didn’t see him at Vernon. Raw as hell but passionate, industrious”
  • No. 153: Tyler Vesel—Impressive scoring numbers over several years, most recently in the USHL. Stu MacGregor: “He’s a scorer. He had a tremendous year and he’ll be going to Nebraska-Omaha where Dean Blais is a competitive coach who develops players.”
  • No. 183: Keven Bouchard—Stu MacGregor: “It’s always difficult with goaltenders when they don’t play a lot but we had an eye on him from the previous year and I happened to be at a game this season where he did play and had a period at the Memorial Cup. He’s a guy with potential. He’s very fit and strong and he’s willing to put in the work. Freddie Chabot and Sylvain Rodrique (goalie coaches) know him really well and have worked with him.”

REMINDS ME....

This is so much like the 2008 draft. Edmonton took Jordan Eberle in round one, didn't have a second or a third round selection, and then drafted Johan Motin, Phil Cornet, Teemu Hartikainen and Jordan Bendfeld.

Career Numbers:

  • Jordan Eberle: 275GP, 96-125-221
  • Johan Motin: 1GP, 0-0-0
  • Phil Cornet: 2GP, 0-1-1
  • Teemu Hartikainen: 52GP, 6-7-13

Six years later, those are the boxcars for the 2008 entry draft. I think Leon Draisaitl will play more NHL games than Jordan Eberle in his first six seasons (he should be over 400) but the rest of this 2014 draft class can reasonably be expected to score about the same in terms of NHL games played.

The lesson here: those second and third round picks are valuable, because there are still good players available. Craig MacTavish received very good value for those picks (David Perron and Ben Scrivens), and I'm not suggesting they were mistakes.

It is worth noting that the picks traded away over the last 12 months turned into Ivan Barbashev and Dominic Turgeron today, and that stings more than a little.



C2a6955161684b5e3189319acfa5ebe4
Lowetide has been one of the Oilogosphere's shining lights for over a century. You can check him out here at OilersNation and at lowetide.ca. He is also the host of Lowdown with Lowetide weekday mornings 10-noon on Team 1260.
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#101 Smokey
June 29 2014, 02:39PM
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dougtheslug wrote:

You just made my point for me. Canucks didn't wait until their backs were to the wall at trade deadline day - they managed the asset brilliantly, getting good value for a diminishing asset.

I remind you that Hemsky DID have value, as he demonstrated with 17 points in 20 games with Ottawa last year. He will definitely be getting more than the 3year $10 million contract he turned down from Ottawa.

Better asset management would have got a lot more than magic beans for him.

I agreed with you, thus reinforcing your point. I just tried to state the differences.

Kesler was terrible last year. Anaheim paid for 2011 Kesler, and for the last 2 years hes been inconsistant.

Anaheim wanted him too bad, that trade could of been made after the draft, and they had stupid amounts if leverage. Kesler only wanted to go to a handful of places. Why pay top dollar for a guy trending down.

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#102 Frank Rizza
June 29 2014, 02:44PM
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@Spydyr

Ya except in real life Eberle doesn't get you close to Petrangelo. Hall might get the conversation started with St. Loius but Eberle doesn't.

So there's a reason you would do it in a heartbeat and that is because no GM in their right might is going to trade Petrangelo for Eberle.

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#103 BlazingSaitls
June 29 2014, 02:44PM
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@dougtheslug

ohh, ohh you're going back 3 yrs? Quit living in the past man. Ive seen enough from the past year to convince me MacT is turning the ship in the right direction now.

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#104 dougtheslug
June 29 2014, 02:47PM
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@Smokey

Agree, it is a bit mystifying, although Anaheim has so many top prospects (Etem, Smith-Pelly, Ritchie this year), that I guess Bonino becomes expendable and a guy with Kesler's pedigree becomes worth the expense.

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#105 dougtheslug
June 29 2014, 02:49PM
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BlazingSaitls wrote:

ohh, ohh you're going back 3 yrs? Quit living in the past man. Ive seen enough from the past year to convince me MacT is turning the ship in the right direction now.

I hope you're right, but Dallas Eakins and 28th place and nobody accountable convinces me of nothing.

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#106 Reds
June 29 2014, 03:08PM
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dougtheslug wrote:

I hope you're right, but Dallas Eakins and 28th place and nobody accountable convinces me of nothing.

Which is why they now have Craig Ramsay on board, with Bucky and Smith gone from the bench.

I know you'll point out Bucky is still with the team, but there's finally some accountability there and it goes un noticed.

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#107 Ed in Edmonton
June 29 2014, 03:45PM
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dougtheslug wrote:

You just made my point for me. Canucks didn't wait until their backs were to the wall at trade deadline day - they managed the asset brilliantly, getting good value for a diminishing asset.

I remind you that Hemsky DID have value, as he demonstrated with 17 points in 20 games with Ottawa last year. He will definitely be getting more than the 3year $10 million contract he turned down from Ottawa.

Better asset management would have got a lot more than magic beans for him.

You make it seem like moving Kesler was the 'Nucks idea. Kesler demanded a trade. With a NMC it is very unlikely Kesler gets traded unless he motivated it.

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#108 Old Retired Guy (A.K.A. Die-Nasty)
June 29 2014, 04:09PM
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GCW wrote:

Did Ehrhoff have a NMC? Everything I have found say he only had a modified NTC.

If he didn't have a NMC, the oilers passed on him in waivers, which really stupid.

I read on Lowetide's site that he had some kind of NTC and therefore didn't have to be put on waivers to be bought out.

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#109 Dockstaff
June 29 2014, 04:39PM
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non descript wrote:

i wonder if the oilers are aware that they are actually allowed to draft a defenceman that shoots right.

it just really seems that there is no thought process behind who they are drafting after the first round. they cant seriously think that they are finding these 20 year old gems other teams have missed on do they? i cant think of another reason for the arbitrary nature of their drafting. they are just all over the map and have almost a zero percent success rate doing it going back for, well, a long time.

as much as i want to see draisaitl in the lineup, they need to send him back to junior, and then give him one year in the ahl. bring him in as a fully formed player. please don't ruin this guy.

Who should have gone in round 4 then? And why? Not just cause he shoots right, this isn't NHL '14.

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#110 Zarny
June 29 2014, 04:47PM
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Old Retired Guy (A.K.A. Die-Nasty) wrote:

So if he played for the Oilers for three years then retired....who would be on the hook for the balance of the contract? Oilers or Buffalo?

Well, no one is on the hook for the balance of the contract. If Erhoff had retired with 3 yr @ $1M/yr left on his contract he just loses $3M.

What teams are on the hook for is the cap advantage they received while the player was on their team.

In Erhoff's case, all of the cap advantage was in the first 2 years; he was paid $18M but only counted $8M against the cap. So Buffalo received a $10M cap advantage.

His real salary now ($4M) matches his cap hit ($4M) so the Oilers or any team could have traded for Ehrhoff and never worried about a penalty because they would have received no advantage.

Buffalo would have remained on the hook for $10M. They would have regained $1M if Ehrhoff played 2017-18 and $3M for every season after. If he retired early though the balance of the cap advantage is spread over the remaining years.

Marian Hossa is an example where a team could trade for him right now and would be subjected to a cap recapture penalty if he retired early when his contract tails off. In that case Chi and the new team would each be on the hook for their portion of the cap advantage spread over however many years Hossa has remaining.

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#111 Dockstaff
June 29 2014, 04:57PM
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@pelhem grenville

To add to this; junior hockey is very different. Guys like Ganger don't have to play defense, they only need to worry about their scoring and that's enough. In the show, most have to back check or else. Very few teams are sold enough to permit one of theirs to play like that. Chicago, LA, Detroit... Pittsburgh pretty much only plays like this, but their offense is so stacked that they can get away with trading chances.

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#112 Spydyr
June 29 2014, 05:29PM
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Frank Rizza wrote:

Ya except in real life Eberle doesn't get you close to Petrangelo. Hall might get the conversation started with St. Loius but Eberle doesn't.

So there's a reason you would do it in a heartbeat and that is because no GM in their right might is going to trade Petrangelo for Eberle.

The poster I was responding to said he would not trade any of the kids.I gave an example of a no brainer trade for one of kids.That was my point.

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#113 Bigfan
June 29 2014, 10:25PM
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MessyEH wrote:

Stop blaming the Oilers. Sam Gagner, ruined Sam Gagner.

He refuses to play with out the puck.

Jordan Eberle was given time to ripen on the vine. Maybe one season too long.

Klee bomb, and Martin the Marcian and Nurse are/were all allowed to develop.

Yakupov, Name a 1st overall who was sent back to junior in the last 25 years.....

I keep hearing that the Oilers rush/ruin prospects. I have seen very little proof of that.

What the Oilers have failed to do, is provide the Elite veteran presence that is needed to shelter these kids.

They really blundered, under the old ownership group, by not having their own development system. This has been remedied. AHL, ECHL and it's been said that Katz wants a KHL franchise.

The future is brighter now than its been in 30 years. Count your blessings.

Wow!

It would be so fantastic if Katz bought a KHL franchise. Think of the potential for an entire other level of player development! Great way to in effect circumvent the salary cap and the 50-contract cap. Would the NHL allow it? Would other NHL owners do the same? What a turn-around from the EIG days, when the Oilers did not even have an AHL team.

And if Katz's KHL team is in a city far enough east, then any Oiler player or prospect could be threatened with being assigned to the 'Siberia for real' rather than just the 'Siberia of the NHL'. Imagine what nasty punishments KLowe could dish out with that arrangement.

Hey KLowe: They can hate as long as they fear, right? Except UFAs I suppose.

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