Gagner traded to Tampa Bay

Jason Gregor
June 29 2014 08:16PM

sam_gagner_edm

Sam Gagner is no longer a member of the Edmonton Oilers. Gagner was dealt to Tampa Bay for Teddy Purcell. ***Update. Tampa just traded him to Arizona.**

Gagner has two years left on a deal that pays him $4.8 million/year. 

Purcell has two years left on his $4.5 million/year cap hit.

Gagner has played 481 games and scored 101-194-295.

Purcell has played 401 games and tallied 75-153-228.

Purcell is four years older, however, he has produced 51 and 65 point seasons.

Craig MacTavish had mentioned numerous times over the past few weeks that the Oilers planned on using Gagner on the wing next season, so trading him for a winger suggests they'd didn't want to wait and see how Gagner would adapt moving to the wing.

Purcell has a bigger frame, but don't expect him to be play with an edge. He is not a physical player, but he is much better defensively than Gagner.

Purcell was 2nd best on the Lightning last season with a  53% CF, but I don't see him as a guy who will face the tough minutes on a nightly basis. 

To me this trade signifies the Oilers didn't want to wait and see if Gagner could take the next step in his development. 

It is an interesting trade from Tampa Bay's perspective. They add a younger player, but Gagner hasn't produced more recently and they don't need him to play centre. Purcell is a big body and better possession player, so part of me wonders if they make another move. They could buy out Gagner at 1/3 of his contract if they wanted to. It looks like they need to clear some cap space.

***EDIT...Turns out they did make another move. They just traded Gagner and BJ Crombeen to the Arizona Coyotes for a draft pick according to Bob McKenzie**

Regardless of what the Lightning do, the Oilers have added an older player, who is a better possession player, but don't expect him to me more than a complementary player in Edmonton. That is fine, because teams need solid complementary players to win, but people shouldn't expect Purcell to be an offensive leader.

WRAP UP

I always enjoyed dealing with Gagner. The past few seasons weren't easy for him. He was aware of how he was perceived by some fans, and he understood their disappointment. Gagner was always a professional and he never hid from the media, unlike some other players.

I have a lot of respect for Gagner, and I hope a change of address gives his career a jumpstart. While he didn't produce as much as he or the fans wanted, he always cared. The losing bothered him, and this year was the more frustrating of his career.

Good luck Sam.

Recently by Jason Gregor: 

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One of Canada's most versatile sports personalities. Jason hosts The Jason Gregor Show, weekdays from 2 to 6 p.m., on TSN 1260, and he writes a column every Monday in the Edmonton Journal. You can follow him on Twitter at twitter.com/JasonGregor
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#251 Andy7190
June 30 2014, 10:52AM
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Bullets Hockey wrote:

Yeah. Teams can only retain salary for 3 contracts at one time. Oilers currently retain on Dubnyk, Schultz and Hemsky.

I am guessing the Smid trade was consummated because the Flames were willing to take on the entire salary.

Makes more sense now, for both teams. Flames below salary floor right now.

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#252 DT
June 30 2014, 10:55AM
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@Spydyr

You're argument breaks down because you assume all NHL players retain their initial draft value. PRV's IPO value was high, but diminished. Perron's IPO value was lower, but his actual value appreciated. You can't compare draft value and actual value. Perron's value is much higher than PRV's. Perhaps the Oilers could be blamed for PRV's slow development, or maybe PRV could be blamed. He never once hit anybody, and couldn't find consistency. I don't understand why you would take a universally applauded trade and use it for your argument.

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#253 OldSchool
June 30 2014, 10:57AM
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Spydyr wrote:

My God people.

Players change in value thats is a given.To even think I am suggesting otherwise is asinine.

What I am comparing is the cost of a player(his draft position)to the return(what you get back for the player).

If you continue to trade 6th overall picks for undrafted players you will lose.

If you hit home runs in later rounds of the draft you will win.

The Oilers do the former.They are eight going on nine years out of the playoffs.The Red Wings do the later they have been in the playoffs for twenty three years.

Why is this so hard to comprehend?

Once the player is drafted, he has no "cost"

It's like money already spent.

Therefore it doesn't matter what number the player was drafted at. Ever again, ever.

This is why people are trying to tell you over and over that they'll trade you 6th overall Gagner's for whatever over all Datsyuk's all day, every day.

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#254 Andy7190
June 30 2014, 11:11AM
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Jay from YYC wrote:

I am sad to see him go, I've always had that koolaid-like hope in him. When he was on, he was on. Sincerely hope he does better in a new environment with new staff, and a different fan base.

Well, Sam is in Glendale now, so "fan base" might be overstating it a bit.

I'm thinking he'll win at least some of the 11 people who loyally renew their tickets each season...

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#255 TigerUnderGlass
June 30 2014, 11:17AM
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PutzStew wrote:

As I said. Thoughts like this are why this team has sucked for so long.

Who cares if Oilers have one player on the roster out of 5 first round picks between 2007 and 2009.

Who cares if the Oilers buy high and sell low regularly.

Please keep up the good work as there are not enough people drinking Kool-aid.

I've been ranting about asset management for as long as I can remember, so you're preaching to the choir as far as that goes, but draft value and player value are on incompatible scales.

Your line of thinking is closer to how the Oilers operate and, unfortunately, has more to do with their record. How else do you account for Cam Barker? His ONLY perceived value was that he was a high pick and the team tried to capitalize based exactly on your line of thinking.

Buying low and selling high doesn't relate to draft number, it relates to player performance.

The $500,000 in my account earned by working for it is no more valuable than the $500,000 I won in the lottery just because the higher initial labour investment. It's irrelevant. All it means is that I'm less likely to win another $500K than I am to earn another $500K working.

My ability to increase or decrease the value of that money has nothing to do with how much I put into getting it in the first place.

Gagner and Hemsky were both sold low, not because of when they were drafted, but because they were both sold when their value relative the rest of the players in the league was low.

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#256 Spydyr
June 30 2014, 11:22AM
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OldSchool wrote:

Once the player is drafted, he has no "cost"

It's like money already spent.

Therefore it doesn't matter what number the player was drafted at. Ever again, ever.

This is why people are trying to tell you over and over that they'll trade you 6th overall Gagner's for whatever over all Datsyuk's all day, every day.

Of course you would trade Gagner for Datsyuk.That is my entire argument.

The Oilers are trading an asset they spent a high first round pick on.The Wings an asset they spent a 6th round pick on.

The Oilers asset has depreciated in value the Wings has risen in value.

If you do this over and over guess what team always makes the playoffs and what team never does.

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#257 OldSchool
June 30 2014, 11:43AM
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@Spydyr

I get what you're trying to say.

What i'm trying to say is the asset is the player; the asset is not the spent pick

that's right, I just used a semi-colon

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#258 RyanCoke
June 30 2014, 11:46AM
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Sam Gone Yay

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#259 Wax Man Riley
June 30 2014, 12:29PM
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PutzStew wrote:

I don't believe you understand this simple concept, as you claim other wise you would not be arguing it.

I do not know if I can make this any simpler for you but as you said "Yes the Oilers love to pick high and sell low"

Picking a player at #10 (PRV) or #6 (Gagner) is buying high.

Trading those when they have little to no value is selling low.

I hope that does not sound too smart for you be cause I don't think it is possible to dumb it down anymore with out using pictures and puppets.

You live up to your name like I have never seen Anybody live up to a name. You are a putz through and through. Buying low and selling high is great in the stock market and the business world. Gawd man, it's not that hard.

Let me make this clear so you can hear it even when your head is up your hoop:

A players value changes. Being traded after you are drafted has little, If nothing to do with what number you were drafted at. Especially 4 years after being drafted. The pick is spent it has not cost anymore. I'm not arguing The Oilers but high and sell low, they invented buying high and selling low; even you understand this, apparently. Read Gregor's new article. The number the player was drafted at means nothing. What the player is at the time means something.

Gagner is going to Arizona for a 6th round pick. When he is traded at the deadline in 2 years he will probably get a 2nd. None of that has anything to do with being a #6 overall. Stop trying to be the smartest guy in the room. There is no arguing that.

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#260 MessyEH
June 30 2014, 12:48PM
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Spydyr wrote:

My God people.

Players change in value thats is a given.To even think I am suggesting otherwise is asinine.

What I am comparing is the cost of a player(his draft position)to the return(what you get back for the player).

If you continue to trade 6th overall picks for undrafted players you will lose.

If you hit home runs in later rounds of the draft you will win.

The Oilers do the former.They are eight going on nine years out of the playoffs.The Red Wings do the later they have been in the playoffs for twenty three years.

Why is this so hard to comprehend?

I'm gonna dumb this waaaayyyy down for you.

You

is

wrong!

Drafting at any position is a gamble. 1st to 210. The odds improve the higher you draft. The intangibles are hard to quantify. The player you draft today may raise, and it may fall. On a long enough time line the value of every player falls to Zero. It's not a linear climb, or desent.

You can not predict injuries. You can not predict mental illness, or substance abuse. Confidence levels rise and fall.

As long as we are drafting humans, and not buying investments. YOU, are going to be wrong. These are not machines. They are organic and forever changing

that is why 30 teams, and thousands of scouts can get it wrong.

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#261 By corner, do you mean circle?
June 30 2014, 02:16PM
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No Penner. No Horcoff. No Hemsky. Now no Gagner? Where is everyone supposed to direct their pitchforks?

At 6 million dollars a year all of you Eberle fans best be prepared because the malcontents will be coming for your boy.

I'll get things started:

Eberle's so soft, he'd get beat up at a Bronies convention.

Eberle's so small Kate Moss told him "Nothing tastes as good as skinny feel- Damn, you're a hockey player, would you eat a sandwich or something?"

Eberle's so lazy he said "I was going to get the puck, but it was way over there."

As a Hemsky fan I will offer you this bit of advice - you will read inane, unfair, ridiculous comments about Eberle on this site and others like it and you will become enraged. However, when punching yourself in the face out of frustration try to avoid the eye, you can do real damage.

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#262 OiledStatGuy
June 30 2014, 07:13PM
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Still seems like a lot of people on this thread don't follow Spyder's logic. So let's review Gregor's thread from June 18th, "What is the Value of a Draft Pick?"

By the NFL chart:

Oiler's number #10 (1300 pts) - MP Oiler's number #33 ( 580 pts) - what became Barbashev

Blues' number #26 (700 pts) - Perron

Blues grew 700 points into a combined value 1800 points that Oilers had to play with on draft day.

Of course Spyder is correct when considering historical progress of opening valuations, that the Blues capitalized and Oilers stock dropped.

The critique's of Spyder are trying to measure current value, or project valuation. Yup, two different things and as was mentioned difficult to correlate these two mappings.

But, things are actually worse for Oilers by current valuation for a couple reasons. Perron's contract is not secured after three years, UFA 2016. It is most likely that Perron is hovering around peak valuation when Oilers grabbed him, and MP and Barbashev, while under secured contracts, have more potential headroom. Maybe MP is a write-off and then MacT will have won the trade, but Barbashev could reverse for future valuation -- for those enamoured with current and future valuation.

And I add to Spyder's comment, that current valuation, Gagner, for salary of $3 million means that at this stage Arizona has leg up on potential based on hit to salary cap with this trade. Assume Crombeen and sixth is a wash.

Oiler's still are not managing for the protection of assest valuation over time. It would be one thing if you were Anaheim and you lost the valuation on Kessler trade for purposes of pushing over the top, but we are at bottom and not even pushing for playoffs. This thing has to grow from bottom up.

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