June 06 2014 07:04PM
Chances are the Edmonton Oilers will select from the CHL in Round 1 of the 2014 Draft. I know, I know. Not exactly earth shattering, is it? Having said that, if we look closely at recent Oiler draft picks, there are several trends that match up with this year's selection. The Edmonton Oilers will pick....
OILER TRENDS SINCE 08 (49 PICKS)
- WHL: 14 selections, 28.6%
- OHL: 7 selections, 14.2%
- Sweden: 5 selections, 10.2%
- QMJHL: 4 selections, 8.1%
- Finland: 4 selections, 8.1%
- BCJHL: 4 selections, 8.1%
- NCAA: 4 selections, 8.1%
- Russia: 2 selections, 4%
- Slovakia: 2 selections, 4%
- MWEHL: 1 selection, 2%
- Minnesota High School: 1 selection, 2%
- Belarus: 1 selection, 2%
Some interesting things when we look at the numbers clustered:
- CHL + BCJHL: 29 selections, 59.1%
- Russia, Finland, Sweden, Slovakia, Belarus: 14 selections, 28.6%
- US College/High School/Junior Leagues: 6 selections, 12.2%
OILER PICKS IN 2014
- #3 overall (first round)
- #91 overall (fourth round, this is the Bryzgalov return)
- #111 overall (fourth round, this is the Mike Brown return)
- #130 overall (fifth round, this is the first pick of the Ales Hemsky return)
- #137 overall (fifth round, this is the Nick Schultz return)
- #153 overall (sixth round)
- #183 overall (seventh round)
WHAT CAN WE ASSUME?
- The obvious: the No. 3 overall pick is coming from the CHL. Again, this is obvious since the candidates all come from the CHL, but it's also true the Oilers have taken CHL players five of seven times when choosing in the first round during the MacGregor era. Exceptions: Magnus Paajarvi, Oscar Klefbom.
- The Oilers have 7 selections in this year's draft. Using the percentages above, we can guess that the Oilers will take four players from the CHL,two from Europe and one from the USA.
WHAT MIGHT THAT LOOK LIKE?
- No. 3: C Leon Draisaitl, Prince Albert (WHL)
- No 91: G Ilya Sorokin Metallurg (KHL)
- No. 111: L Edgars Kulda, Edmonton (WHL)
- No. 130: R Vaclav Karabacek, Gatineau (QMJHL)
- No. 137: D Marcus McIvor, North Bay (OHL)
- No. 153: R Juuso Ikonen, Espoo-JYP (SML)
- No. 183: L Chase Phelps, Shattuck-St.Mary's (USHS)
That's kind of the projected makeup of a typical Oilers draft. Craig MacTavish has toughened it up a little, but it'll still have lots of skill. I picked one goalie and I could have chosen two, but that OHL defenseman looks like Ben Betker all over again.