PROJECTING OILERS DRAFT TRENDS INTO 2014

Lowetide
June 06 2014 07:04PM

MACGREGOR COMMON

Chances are the Edmonton Oilers will select from the CHL in Round 1 of the 2014 Draft. I know, I know. Not exactly earth shattering, is it? Having said that, if we look closely at recent Oiler draft picks, there are several trends that match up with this year's selection. The Edmonton Oilers will pick....

OILER TRENDS SINCE 08 (49 PICKS)

  1. WHL: 14 selections, 28.6%
  2. OHL: 7 selections, 14.2%
  3. Sweden: 5 selections, 10.2%
  4. QMJHL: 4 selections, 8.1%
  5. Finland: 4 selections, 8.1%
  6. BCJHL: 4 selections, 8.1%
  7. NCAA: 4 selections, 8.1%
  8. Russia: 2 selections, 4%
  9. Slovakia: 2 selections, 4%
  10. MWEHL: 1 selection, 2%
  11. Minnesota High School: 1 selection, 2%
  12. Belarus: 1 selection, 2%

Some interesting things when we look at the numbers clustered:

  • CHL + BCJHL: 29 selections, 59.1%
  • Russia, Finland, Sweden, Slovakia, Belarus: 14 selections, 28.6%
  • US College/High School/Junior Leagues: 6 selections, 12.2%


OILER PICKS IN 2014

  • #3 overall (first round)
  • #91 overall (fourth round, this is the Bryzgalov return)
  • #111 overall (fourth round, this is the Mike Brown return)
  • #130 overall (fifth round, this is the first pick of the Ales Hemsky return)
  • #137 overall (fifth round, this is the Nick Schultz return)
  • #153 overall (sixth round) 
  • #183 overall (seventh round) 


WHAT CAN WE ASSUME?

  1. The obvious: the No. 3 overall pick is coming from the CHL. Again, this is obvious since the candidates all come from the CHL, but it's also true the Oilers have taken CHL players five of seven times when choosing in the first round during the MacGregor era. Exceptions: Magnus Paajarvi, Oscar Klefbom.
  2. The Oilers have 7 selections in this year's draft. Using the percentages above, we can guess that the Oilers will take four players from the CHL,two from Europe and one from the USA.


WHAT MIGHT THAT LOOK LIKE?

  • No. 3: C Leon Draisaitl, Prince Albert (WHL)
  • No 91: G Ilya Sorokin   Metallurg (KHL)
  • No. 111: L Edgars Kulda, Edmonton (WHL)
  • No. 130: R Vaclav Karabacek, Gatineau (QMJHL)
  • No. 137: D Marcus McIvor, North Bay (OHL)
  • No. 153: R Juuso Ikonen, Espoo-JYP (SML)
  • No. 183: L Chase Phelps, Shattuck-St.Mary's (USHS)

That's kind of the projected makeup of a typical Oilers draft. Craig MacTavish has toughened it up a little, but it'll still have lots of skill. I picked one goalie and I could have chosen two, but that OHL defenseman looks like Ben Betker all over again.

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Lowetide has been one of the Oilogosphere's shining lights for over a century. You can check him out here at OilersNation and at lowetide.ca. He is also the host of Lowdown with Lowetide weekday mornings 10-noon on TSN 1260.
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#51 Sacks5th
June 07 2014, 01:52PM
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I'd look to do a couple moves like this:

1) move Schultz for Brayden schenn

2) move gagner for Ryan Ellis

To me we don't really lose anything on the backend and we get schenn who has similar traits to Sam Bennett and is a better skater than gagner. Better defensively too.

Then you draft leon.

Consider moving eberle for Ryan o Reilly/James Neal/niño niedereiter. Each brings something we don't have. Also note oreilly played a lot if wing this year so is quite versatile.

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#52 2015Playoffs???Nope
June 07 2014, 02:04PM
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Sacks5th wrote:

I'd look to do a couple moves like this:

1) move Schultz for Brayden schenn

2) move gagner for Ryan Ellis

To me we don't really lose anything on the backend and we get schenn who has similar traits to Sam Bennett and is a better skater than gagner. Better defensively too.

Then you draft leon.

Consider moving eberle for Ryan o Reilly/James Neal/niño niedereiter. Each brings something we don't have. Also note oreilly played a lot if wing this year so is quite versatile.

Not a bad post but Ellis is too small. We don't need small offensive dmen, we need some actual physical defence-first men on the back end. Not just size, but mobile, good skating, good first pass! Ellis is JSchultz Jr.

And moving Eberle for Neiderreitter (sp?) would be a complete downgrade. Ebs isn't as physical but for a first line RW, he doesn't need to be.

Only way in hell Eberle gets traded is in a pkg for a true, legit #1 dman. And the few that are out there don't seem to be on the market right now.

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#53 Brad
June 07 2014, 02:07PM
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@2015Playoffs???Nope

Good point

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#54 Sacks5th
June 07 2014, 02:11PM
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2015Playoffs???Nope wrote:

Not a bad post but Ellis is too small. We don't need small offensive dmen, we need some actual physical defence-first men on the back end. Not just size, but mobile, good skating, good first pass! Ellis is JSchultz Jr.

And moving Eberle for Neiderreitter (sp?) would be a complete downgrade. Ebs isn't as physical but for a first line RW, he doesn't need to be.

Only way in hell Eberle gets traded is in a pkg for a true, legit #1 dman. And the few that are out there don't seem to be on the market right now.

I would argue that Schultz is pretty thin too. I don't think a lot is given up in size there

Not a bad idea on eberle. We do need that #1 but nobody is trading them.

Niño will break out next year. Big fan of him.

But good post.

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#55 Zarny
June 07 2014, 02:46PM
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Nick wrote:

You are aware that there have only been 4 players ever granted CHL exceptional player status to play major junior before their time?

John Tavares was the pioneer, 6 years later, Ekblad was the next, followed up by Connor McDavid

Sounds like pretty elite company to me

And exactly how does Ekblad stack up against exceptional players?

Tavares is truly exceptional. He turned 15 Sept 20th his first year. He put up 77, 138, 118 and 94 pts in 4 years of Jr.

McDavid and Ekblad were just Jan and Feb birthdays who turned 16 halfway through their first year of Jr. Drew Doughty's birthday is in December so he didn't need special status.

Doughty had 33, 74 and 50 pts in 3 years of Jr. McDavid had 66 and 99 pts his first 2 yrs of Jr. Pronger only played 2 years of Jr. but had 62 and 77 pts.

Ekblad had 29, 34 and 53 pts with his last year skewed by 31 pt on the PP. An unsustainable rate much like Yak shooting 20+% and the Leafs winning while being horribly outshot.

Where would Ekblad have been drafted in 2008? Certainly after Stamkos and Doughty.

Bogosian had 61 pt his draft year and 33 as a 17 y/o. Pietrangelo had 53 pt his draft year but 52 pt as a 17 y/o.

Schenn, Myers, Teubert, Karlsson, Gardiner, Sbisa, Del Zotto, Cuma and Carlson were all drafted in the 1st round but Ekblad is likely in the mix with Bogosian and Pietrangelo going 3rd-5th.

Somewhere between Bogosian to Pietrangelo is probably what to expect from Ekblad.

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#56 They're $hittie
June 07 2014, 07:05PM
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copper and blue wants to trade the third overall for omark and gilbert

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#57 big slick
June 07 2014, 07:54PM
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I hope the draft goes Sam, Sam, Ekblad too. It is not too late to build the team from the back-end out. I think it is easier to sign or trade for #2 center than #1/2 defenseman.

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#58 Oilers
June 07 2014, 11:21PM
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Did anyone see all the ex oilers and blue jackets in the final.

Can anyone say thanks dumb, dumber, and dumbest.

Howson, Mac t, and Lowe.

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#59 Oilers
June 07 2014, 11:25PM
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Strottie wrote:

If the two Sam's go first and second, then without a doubt Ekblad's an Oiler.

Mactavish may be bold, but he's not stupid.

I have seen more stupid and zero bold.

How come the Canadians got better with a GM change, and the Oilers worse.

Again, more dumb than bold.

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#60 ThatGuy
June 08 2014, 01:42AM
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June 27th 2014 {Philadelphia, PA.} [Gary Bettman] - Ladies and Gentlemen... We have a trade to announce... [Fans] - Booooo.. [Bettman] - The Edmonton Oilers... [Fans] - BOOOO! [Bettman] - Ahem, The Edmonton Oilers have traded... the 3rd overall selection in the 2014 NHL Entry Draft, Sam Gagner and Martin Gernat to the Nashville Predators for Shea Weber and Zach Budish.

Meanwhile in Edmonton for mixed reasons everyone at Oilersnation.com sh!ts a collective brick!

Back in Philadelphia. [Gary Bettman] - We have another trade to announce! [Fans] - BOOOO!!! [Bettman] - Better Check yo self Philadelphia.... [Ron Hextall, somewhere, looking at his watch,struggling to sh!t a brick] Argh!!! [Bettman] The Edmonton Oilers have traded Nail Yakupov, their 2015 1st round selection, and whatever other magic beans and spare-parts the fans at Oilersnation choose to Pittsburgh for Evgeni Malkin.

And In about 365 heartbeats the beloved Oilers go from front row at future entry drafts to back row, hanging out with their Stanley cups, Championship Banners and other assorted Hardware...

WOO!

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#61 madjam
June 08 2014, 05:51AM
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With high draft choices comes high expectations . Due to free agency being a boon to state side teams , Canadian teams have a far more difficult time attracting the types of players and cores to reach the top level . It seems it just gets harder and harder for Canadian teams to compete each year under present system .

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#62 Wintoon
June 08 2014, 06:08AM
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The way the draft appears to be setting up is that the Oilers will be having to decide between filling their #1/#2 D Man slot (Ekblad) or their #1/#2 C spot (Reinhart or Draisaitl). Overall, the alternatives are not bad and at least one gaping hole on the roster will be filled in the near future.

What will be key for Oiler fans and media is to keep their expectations realistic. The Oilers will be drafting a good player in the #3 slot. There are, however, no guarantees he will be a great player. As long as the fans and media have patience and don't carve this player up, the Oilers should be substantially better after this draft.

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#63 nuge2nail
June 08 2014, 11:36AM
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Oilers wrote:

Did anyone see all the ex oilers and blue jackets in the final.

Can anyone say thanks dumb, dumber, and dumbest.

Howson, Mac t, and Lowe.

Oiler Domination To Follow

Howson actually braught Gaborik in- he wasnt the GM that traded him for magic beans.

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#64 madjam
June 08 2014, 11:43AM
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Wintoon wrote:

The way the draft appears to be setting up is that the Oilers will be having to decide between filling their #1/#2 D Man slot (Ekblad) or their #1/#2 C spot (Reinhart or Draisaitl). Overall, the alternatives are not bad and at least one gaping hole on the roster will be filled in the near future.

What will be key for Oiler fans and media is to keep their expectations realistic. The Oilers will be drafting a good player in the #3 slot. There are, however, no guarantees he will be a great player. As long as the fans and media have patience and don't carve this player up, the Oilers should be substantially better after this draft.

Probably easier and cheaper for us to do additions thru the draft . Unfortunately it also takes much longer .

I don't mind trading anyone so long as we can adequately replace that person and also make team better overall at same time . Too many of our trades do neither . Gagner comes to mind and his contract makes that doubly hard to accomplish . Overpaying often means underperforming the overall clubs on ice personal .

Due to the uncertainty of this draft , I could see us using that pick for an upgrade or more on current club . It would have to be quite an upgrade for sure , and I believe should be at least two or more in return for that pick .

Example : Yakupov should get you a first overall plus in a weak draft year in order to trade him at this time. He's had 2 years and should only get better I would think . Mind you if he wants out that makes getting value for him all that more difficult .

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#65 TigerUnderGlass
June 08 2014, 11:56AM
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Oilers wrote:

I have seen more stupid and zero bold.

How come the Canadians got better with a GM change, and the Oilers worse.

Again, more dumb than bold.

How enlightening.

Why don't you tell us which moves were so stupid instead of just "he's dumb".

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