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Lowetide
July 14 2014 06:36PM

eberle17

The Edmonton Oilers have some very nice things on right wing. A former No. 1 overall pick, one of Canada's all-time famous international players and a recent hire with some nice bullet points on his resume. There's also a very experienced fourth liner who is going to have a mighty mighty job this winter. A veteran group? In Edmonton? Come ON!

JORDAN EBERLE

eberle 13-14 scoring

Jordan Eberle is an offensive winger and a solid goal-scorer. His even-strength offense ranks him among the NHL's top 10 RW's (this is NHL.com) and suggests the Oilers top line was rolling one year ago at 5x5 despite the shot differential worry. Eberle gets less applause since the $6 million deal kicked in, but he's a valuable player and a big part of Edmonton's future.

NAIL YAKUPOV

NAIL YAKUPOV ES

Yakupov had a tough year, and we can see a lot of it in the Shooting percentage. 21% as a rookie is a monster, you can't expect to see that again. 9%? Low, a little low. I'd bet on 12% or more, but even if its 10% one season from now the Russian has to shoot MORE! And it would behoove Craig Ramsay to get him lots of power-play time. Lots and lots of power-play time.

TEDDY PURCELL

purcell es

Another guy who suffered from a shooting percentage dip in 2013-14, Teddy Purcell should be a fun player to watch with the Oilers. Much has been made about his lack of physical play, so we can expect the usual criticisms about big men who play soft. Here's the news: he's an NHL player! Yes!

5x5/60:

  1. Jordan Eberle 2.03
  2. Nail Yakupov 1.43
  3. Teddy Purcell 1.37

Source: BTN.

You may recall that our LW look (Taylor Hall 2.91; David Perron 1.96; Benoit Pouliot 1.79) was silly good, and I'd say that Eberle number is a very nice one. Suspect there's room for improvement with Yakupov and Purcell, and that brings us to six very interesting NHL wingers for Edmonton in 2014-15.

HOW MANY EVEN-STRENGTH GOALS?

Eberle scored 20 a year ago, that's a terrific number. He scored 24 two years ago, so I think we can probably count on 20 this coming season. Nail Yakupov scored only 7 last season, and 11 in the short season of 2012-13. He's a tough player to estimate because we're not really certain of his role. I'm going to suggest 11 again because of the wide range of possibilities. Teddy Purcell scored 9 goals last season at evens, I'm going to suggest his shooting percentage improves a little and he scores 10.

So that leaves us with 41 goals from the right wingers at even strength. Fair?

HOW MANY POWER-PLAY GOALS?

This is the tough part of the process. Purcell scored only 3 goals, but had 17 points with the man advantage, suggesting he's more passer than trigger-man. He'll fill 89's skates well in this regard. Eberle scored 7, and I think that's likely again, maybe a little more.

Yakupov is the big hitter here. I think Craig Ramsay will use him much more this coming season, and the Russian is likely to at least double last season's total (4). If Ramsay uses Yak City as  the trigger man on the power play he could blow that total out of the water.

The absence of strong alternatives have me thinking we can count on the new No. 10 for 8 goals, meaning RW should contribute 18 goals with the man advantage.

WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN?

pigeons

I have a feeling Nail Yakupov is going to explode on the power play once he unlocks the code, but for this season let's estimate the RW's as scoring 59 or 60 goals (41 even, 19 power play or pk) from their top three options. I'll address Matt Hendricks and the others when we look at that very specialized fourth line.

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Lowetide has been one of the Oilogosphere's shining lights for over a century. You can check him out here at OilersNation and at lowetide.ca. He is also the host of Lowdown with Lowetide weekday mornings 10-noon on Team 1260.
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#51 Jay from YYC
July 15 2014, 09:44AM
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that last GIF was slightly traumatizing I can't even think about what you just wrote

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#52 Serious Gord
July 15 2014, 09:48AM
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Peter wrote:

Hopefully you don't coach minor hockey. Based on your constant negative and less than intelligent comments, I suspect you'd be an awful coach. I'd also wager a bet that if your son doesn't score the car ride home consists of you telling him it was the coaches fault. I will say a prayer for any hockey parents or coaches who have to deal with you.

Not a coach and not a meddling parent. My role model is Brendan shanahans dad who apparently was deliberately quiet in the stands and stayed out of his sons team activities other than to provide help setting up functions and getting his son and other kids to and from the rink.

But I am one of those many who - as Elliotte Friedman and others have noted - see the reason for the decline in minor hockey not rooted in the cost or level of commitment from parents and children, but rather the politics and favoritism that dominates organized amateur hockey. Kids aren't blind or naive - they see it as much or better than the parents do and when they get old enough to assert themselves many abandon it.

(A friends kid did it in spectacular fashion a couple of seasons ago in the middle of a playoff game when the coaches son - an inept player who clearly didn't belong at the AA level and hadn't ever belonged for years prior went over the boards on the first line yet again - the friends kid jumped over the boards in the middle of the action skated across the rink to the exit gate and has left the rink. The kid was a VERY good player who loved the game but had had enough of the BS)

And that climate of politics and favoritism runs right up to the very top of professional hockey.

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#53 Deskjock
July 15 2014, 09:50AM
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@Jay from YYC

What is it even?

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#54 Serious Gord
July 15 2014, 09:51AM
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Zarny wrote:

Does Eakins pull marionette strings or does he just roll his eyes back and control players with his mind like Bran on GoT?

Players play and are responsible for what happens on the ice.

Not coaches.

If that were true then why have coaches and why do we let them chose the line and who gets PP time? Coaches absolutely play a role in a player'a success or failure and I think you know that.

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#55 Vinotintazo
July 15 2014, 09:51AM
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The Last Big Bear wrote:

Now for some context:

New and Improved Oilers RW 5x5/60:

Jordan Eberle 2.03

Nail Yakupov 1.43

Teddy Purcell 1.37

Pathetic Bottom-Feeding Flames RW 5x5/60:

Jiri Hudler: 2.12

Joe Colborne: 1.45

David Jones: 1.30

(First call-up is likely Hanowski, at 1.54 through 11 games last year)

The Flames are a terrible team right now, and RW is their weakest position. Im just trying to give a bit of perspective on what the 5x5/60 of an awful team looks like. It looks quite a bit like the Oilers.

after looking at this I'm not sure if to laugh or cry. :)

http://capgeek.com/flames/armchair-gm/

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#56 Basshole39
July 15 2014, 10:02AM
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Serious Gord wrote:

1. Best player in the world for about five years

2. The world of professional hockey in North America is a very close club, dominated - not surprisingly - by Canadians. Hockey Canada / the nhl / HHOF committee - there is a ton of overlap and not by coincidence.

1) That is your opinion, not a fact. The evidence suggests otherwise!!

2) Take a look at the selection committee and provide actual facts! Brain Burke, Anders Hedberg, Igor Larionov. At least half of them are not Canadian and the half that are a bunch are journalists or guys who never had much to do with Hockey Canada!!!!!!!

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#57 MOOG35
July 15 2014, 10:13AM
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@Vinotintazo

To be fair, Hudler is coming off a career year, and both Yakupov and Purcel are coming off down years. If they have years like that again, a lot of Oiler fans are gonna be sick.

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#58 Silo
July 15 2014, 10:29AM
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@MOOG35

Been watching them the last 8 years, I'm already sick

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#59 The Last Big Bear
July 15 2014, 10:34AM
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MOOG35 wrote:

To be fair, Hudler is coming off a career year, and both Yakupov and Purcel are coming off down years. If they have years like that again, a lot of Oiler fans are gonna be sick.

Jiri Hudler's 5v5/60 for the last 3 seasons:

2013/14: 2.12

2012/13: 1.94

2011/12: 2.22

Hudler just got more ice time in Calgary.

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#60 Oil Kings 'n' Pretty Things
July 15 2014, 10:51AM
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I tried it at home wrote:

You just had to go and challenge them, didn't you?

Nothing is foolproof to a sufficiently talented fool.

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#61 Deskjock
July 15 2014, 10:51AM
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Seriously what's going on in that GIF?

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#62 v4ance
July 15 2014, 11:08AM
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The Last Big Bear wrote:

Jiri Hudler's 5v5/60 for the last 3 seasons:

2013/14: 2.12

2012/13: 1.94

2011/12: 2.22

Hudler just got more ice time in Calgary.

Hudler career stats based on TOI/Gm:

2013-14 54 pts (1st line Cal) 2012-13 27 pts (1st line Cal) pro-rated to 46 pts in 82 gms 2011-12 50 pts (2nd line Det) 2010-11 37 pts (2nd line Det) 2008-09 57 pts (2nd line Det) lost finals to Pens Hudler is 30 next season and leaving his prime scoring years. His BEST season was 57 pts on a powerhouse 08-09 Det team. As a 1st liner fed cherry minutes on the Flames, he could only get 50 pts.

Eberle is 24 and just entering his prime scoring years. He's made it past 57 pts TWICE already and is a solid 1st line scorer. Trying to argue the Flames are or will be better on the right flank is a fools bet. Eberle and Yakupov are younger than Hudler and Colborne and should be better based on their past performances.

Ask any GM if they want Yak+Ebs or Hudler+Colb as their starting 2 RWs and 29 out 30 GMs will laugh at you just for asking the question.

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#63 Serious Gord
July 15 2014, 11:17AM
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Deskjock wrote:

Seriously what's going on in that GIF?

Looks like a massive release of birds into the wild - or maybe quail onto a hunting reserve.

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#64 The Last Big Bear
July 15 2014, 11:35AM
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v4ance wrote:

Hudler career stats based on TOI/Gm:

2013-14 54 pts (1st line Cal) 2012-13 27 pts (1st line Cal) pro-rated to 46 pts in 82 gms 2011-12 50 pts (2nd line Det) 2010-11 37 pts (2nd line Det) 2008-09 57 pts (2nd line Det) lost finals to Pens Hudler is 30 next season and leaving his prime scoring years. His BEST season was 57 pts on a powerhouse 08-09 Det team. As a 1st liner fed cherry minutes on the Flames, he could only get 50 pts.

Eberle is 24 and just entering his prime scoring years. He's made it past 57 pts TWICE already and is a solid 1st line scorer. Trying to argue the Flames are or will be better on the right flank is a fools bet. Eberle and Yakupov are younger than Hudler and Colborne and should be better based on their past performances.

Ask any GM if they want Yak+Ebs or Hudler+Colb as their starting 2 RWs and 29 out 30 GMs will laugh at you just for asking the question.

"...should..."

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#65 jeremy
July 15 2014, 12:12PM
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Serious Gord wrote:

I'm talking about lindros' exclusion from the HHOF.

Very hard to believe that Rennie was the very best candidate for the job.

Yeah I mean a guy who was the VP of hockey operations in the organization and a coach in the organization is a terrible candidate

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#66 TigerUnderGlass
July 15 2014, 12:19PM
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v4ance wrote:

Hudler career stats based on TOI/Gm:

2013-14 54 pts (1st line Cal) 2012-13 27 pts (1st line Cal) pro-rated to 46 pts in 82 gms 2011-12 50 pts (2nd line Det) 2010-11 37 pts (2nd line Det) 2008-09 57 pts (2nd line Det) lost finals to Pens Hudler is 30 next season and leaving his prime scoring years. His BEST season was 57 pts on a powerhouse 08-09 Det team. As a 1st liner fed cherry minutes on the Flames, he could only get 50 pts.

Eberle is 24 and just entering his prime scoring years. He's made it past 57 pts TWICE already and is a solid 1st line scorer. Trying to argue the Flames are or will be better on the right flank is a fools bet. Eberle and Yakupov are younger than Hudler and Colborne and should be better based on their past performances.

Ask any GM if they want Yak+Ebs or Hudler+Colb as their starting 2 RWs and 29 out 30 GMs will laugh at you just for asking the question.

Why not try to be fair when making comparisons?

Hudler scored his 57 on a "powerhouse Det team" while playing about 13 minutes a game. Eberle has never played close to so few minutes.

I know you want to defend Eberle's honor, and I agree nobody would take Hudler over him, but Hudler has been an effective EV scorer for a while now and it's reasonable to recognize that fact.

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#67 TigerUnderGlass
July 15 2014, 12:21PM
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The Last Big Bear wrote:

"...should..."

This is how decisions are made. You can make fun of the word "should" all you like, but there are no certainties.

Teams need to make bets on who will perform, and "should" is exactly what every analyst in the world is calculating when trying to make predictions.

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#68 Rickithebear
July 15 2014, 01:42PM
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Now for some context:

2 year results for Forwards: Points Rank

(6) HalL 130

(12) Seguin 116

(18) Benn 112

(25) Eberle 102

(65) Perron 82

(67) Hudler 81

(69) RNH 80

(74) Purcell 78

Oilers 5; Dallas 2; CGY 1

__________________________1st/2nd

(98) Spezza 71

(110) Raymond 67

(125) Hemsky 63

(141) Eakin 59

(154) Stajan; Pouliot 56

(162) Backlund; Yak 55

Nischuskin; Chaisson; Monohan: and Arco; all performed at a 2yr pace that would rank 148 to 170

Dal 5; CGY 4; EDM 3

------------------------- 2nd/3rd

(184) Glencross 50

(192) Peverley 48 ??????????

(206) Roussell 43

(208) Garbutt 42

(220) Fiddler 40

(238) Cole 36

(243) Gordon 35

(257) Horcoff 32

Dal 5; CGY 1; EDM 1

----------------------- 3rd/4th

(272) Coulburne 28

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#69 rickithebear
July 15 2014, 02:02PM
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SO by production:

1st Line;

Hall-RNH-Eberle

Perron-XXX-Purcell

Benn-Seguin-XXX

XXX-XXX-Hudler

2nd Line:

xxx-Arco-XXX

Pouliot-XXX-Yak

XXX-XXX-Nischuskin

XXX-Speeza-Hemsky

XXX-Eakin-Chaisson

Raymond-Monohan-XXX

XXX-Stajan-XXX

XXX-Backlund-XXX

So 1st/ 2nd Producers

Hall-RNH-Eberle

Perron-Arco-Purcell

Pouliot-XXX-Yak

Oilers 5 1st 3 2nd 8 1st/2nd

Benn-Seguin-Nischuskin

XXX-Spezza-Hemsky

XXX-Eakin-Chaisson

Dallas 2 1st 5 2nd 7 1st/2nd

Raymond-Monohan-Hudler

Backlund; Stajan at C.

CGY 1st 4 2nd 5 1st/2nd

People need to look at our current roster not the one in june 2013.

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#70 S4H1
July 16 2014, 03:25AM
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The Last Big Bear wrote:

Now for some context:

New and Improved Oilers RW 5x5/60:

Jordan Eberle 2.03

Nail Yakupov 1.43

Teddy Purcell 1.37

Pathetic Bottom-Feeding Flames RW 5x5/60:

Jiri Hudler: 2.12

Joe Colborne: 1.45

David Jones: 1.30

(First call-up is likely Hanowski, at 1.54 through 11 games last year)

The Flames are a terrible team right now, and RW is their weakest position. Im just trying to give a bit of perspective on what the 5x5/60 of an awful team looks like. It looks quite a bit like the Oilers.

You provided Hudler and Colborne despite them being Left Wings.

These are the legitimate Calgary forward 5v5 P/60 stats.

Centers 5v5 P/60 Stajan: 1.68

Monahan: 1.45

Backlund: 1.23

Wingers 5v5 P/60 Hudler: 2.12

Raymond: 1.66 (Toronto)

Glencross: 1.66 (38 games)

Colborne: 1.45

Jones: 1.30

Galiardi: 1.1

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#71 S4H1
July 16 2014, 03:38AM
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Now here is the Oilers top nine (as projected, hopefully fairly, by me)

Center 5v5 P/60

RNH: 1.56 Arcobello: 1.82 Gordon: 0.93

Wingers 5v5 P/60

Hall: 2.91 Eberle: 2.03 Perron: 1.96 Pouliot: 1.79 (Rangers) Yakupov: 1.43 Purcell: 1.37 (Lightning)

Comparing these to Calgary's forwards, I know who I would want. Gotta say though, I'm surprised Backlund has such a low number. I like him as a player. The Oilers obviously need another Center to push Gordon down. I'm hoping for big things from Leon "The Professional" Draisaitl.

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#72 Rdubb
July 16 2014, 07:43AM
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I'm not trying to be rude or anything, but come on Lowetide, you had a hard on for Gagner & I think that hard on has just been passed to Nail...coincidently, two of the worst +/- guys in the NHL, and w/o looking, they must have been the two worst guys on the Oilers last season... Maybe Gagner gives his head a shake and FINALLY realizes that he HAS to be play defense and Tippet is just the guy to teach him, and if he doesn't shake his head and figure it out, I could easily see PHX buying him out next season, even though he is a class act of a person, but they cannot afford a -30 guy playing on their team... If Yak doesn't shake his head, and stop listening to his posse about playing only offense, then I can see him doing a ton of sitting on the end of the bench or up in the box this season. the kid can shoot and skate and has a bit of a mean streak, but he has to learn to play away from the puck and in his own zone, and when he doesn't, the entire line is chasing and the puck generally ends up in the net, so, if Yak doesn't learn to play away from the puck, then MacT and Eakins should send him down to OKC and see if that staff can get it into his head about playing defense.... just a few thoughts

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#73 v4ance
July 17 2014, 04:15AM
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Serious Gord wrote:

I'm talking about lindros' exclusion from the HHOF.

Very hard to believe that Rennie was the very best candidate for the job.

Paul Stewart talks about his relationship to Lindros:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/paul-stewart/hecklers-hooligans-and-th_b_5591462.html?1405531613

Eric Lindros was a player I got off with on the wrong foot and we never developed a rapport because neither he nor I wanted one. It started out innocently enough.

I was working an afternoon Philadelphia-New Jersey game at the Spectrum; the back end of a home-and-home. The Devils won the previous game, 6-4, in a game refereed by Mark Faucette. The game got chippy late in the third period, with about 40 penalty minutes being handed out in the final five minutes, including roughing penalties to Lindros and Scott Stevens in the waning seconds of the game.

The start of the game at the Spectrum was delayed several minutes. I had to wait for the red light on the scorer's table to indicate that the broadcast had returned from a commercial and it was OK to drop the opening faceoff.

During the delay, I made small talk with several of the Devils and Flyers on the ice. I said hello to Mark Recchi and talked to Bernie Nicholls. I then tried to greet the 19-year-old rookie Lindros.

"Hey, Eric. How are things going? How's your dad?" I asked.

The response: "[Bleep] you. Just drop the [bleeping] puck already."

Lindros was apparently in a bad mood because he'd recently missed 12 games with a knee injury, the team was in a losing skid, and he'd had a tough game in New Jersey. This game was also played about a week after Lindros had to go to court in Toronto after the Koo Koo Bananas incident. You know what? Those were his problems, not mine. But we were about to have a mutual problem.

Right off the opening faceoff, Lindros bulled forward and drilled Nicholls under the chin with his stick. I ditched Lindros on a high-sticking penalty.

Before the game, I had brought a tube filled with posters to Flyers' equipment manager Jim "Turk" Evers. The posters, which depicted Recchi and Lindros, were to be autographed and then donated to a charity auction. I had done a similar thing in other cities, such as a Cam Neely and Ray Bourque poster in Boston, and a Mario Lemieux and Jaromir Jagr in Pittsburgh.

After the game, I want to Turk to collect the poster tube.

"Stewy, you're not going to like this," Evers said. "I don't have them."

"What do you mean you don't have them?" I asked.

"Well, Rex signed the posters but when Eric found out they were for you, he tore every one of them up. I'm sorry about that."

I never spoke to Eric Lindros again.

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