What should the Edmonton Oilers be willing to trade for Patrik Berglund?

Jonathan Willis
July 02 2014 02:13PM

Berglund

The St. Louis Blues are stacked at centre. Paul Stastny and KHL star Jori Lehtera (who looks like he’ll be a top-nine forward immediately) join a group that already had a pretty good quartet in David Backes, Vladimir Sobotka, Patrik Berglund and Max Lapierre.

It’s been suggested that the Blues would probably be very willing to move Berglund. Is he a fit in Edmonton?

The Scoring

Season PTS/60 NHL Rk.
2008-09 1.83 135
2009-10 1.25 290
2010-11 1.76 155
2011-12 1.70 154
2012-13 1.39 221
2013-14 1.72 146

By offence, Berglund isn’t really a second-line centre. On average he scores about 1.6 points per hour at even-strength and places around 183rd among NHL regular forwards in that category. That makes him an exceptional third-liner (which is the role he was in with the Blues), but a decidedly below-average second line player.

Underlying Numbers

Berglund 7.2.14

chart via somekindofninja.com

Decent if unspectacular totals here. Berglund outperformed the team mostly in years where it wasn’t very good, with 2013-14 being the exception to the rule; it’s also worth noting that he’s done much better when spotted in the offensive zone rather than being asked to do defensive zone lifting (no surprise there).

Everything here points to a really good third-line pivot to me. The Blues have been an awfully good team the last few years and Berglund’s been in the range (give or take a little) of what we would expect in terms of Corsi over the last three years.

Other Stuff Worth Noting

57-Perron-8

  • Berglund has some history with David Perronin 2008-09 in particular the pair had a pretty decent run together against good opponents.
  • Berglund’s a nice acquisition in at least two other ways. He just turned 26, so he’s still in the prime years of his career, and at 6’3”, 217 pounds he helps the Oilers with their desire to add size.
  • St. Louis has been a top-10 team on the penalty kill for three consecutive seasons (second in the NHL in 2013-14). Berglund has averaged about 1:30 per game with the Blues shorthanded in each of those three seasons.
  • Berglund’s also been used on the power play, mostly on the second unit, where he posts consistently mediocre point totals but been part of a unit with decent overall effectiveness.
  • Berglund’s faceoff win rate is consistently in the 47 percent range.
  • Looking quickly at the NHL’s real-time stats, Berglund’s not an over-the-top hitter but he does land checks.

Summary

Patrik Berglund is a quality No. 3 centre at even-strength by virtually any measure, adds value on the penalty kill and is probably a replacement-level power play option. Given his age, he’s likely to stay at that level for some time to come. He’s not a good fit for the Oilers’ vacant No. 2 centre position, but is a strong candidate for the No. 3 job and could presumably be asked to play over his head for a season or two (though a contender wouldn’t do it).

The value on that player type fluctuates, but this isn’t a situation where Edmonton should even consider dealing a first round pick. Last year Perron fetched a good young NHL player (Magnus Paajarvi) and a second round pick in trade; Berglund plays centre but not as high up the lineup so a second round pick and a decent prospect would seem a reasonable deal.

St. Louis just added forwards at the draft and has a bunch of good right-shooting defensive prospects, but could use some lefties; the Oilers have a bunch and could certainly move one.

RECENTLY BY JONATHAN WILLIS

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Jonathan Willis is a freelance writer. He currently works for Oilers Nation, Sportsnet, the Edmonton Journal and Bleacher Report. He's co-written three books and worked for myriad websites, including Grantland, ESPN, The Score, and Hockey Prospectus. He was previously the founder and managing editor of Copper & Blue.
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#101 mike
July 02 2014, 06:38PM
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If we can't find a center a good option would be too move hall to center. He is a dominant player in the league and should be able to handle the load. Similar. To what the old oil did with messier.

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#102 Jasmine
July 02 2014, 07:13PM
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@rubbertrout

Oilers fans have a habit of running players out of town. Oilers just ran Gagner out of town. Gagner joins a long list of players run out of town by Oilers fans.

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#103 Thumby
July 02 2014, 08:14PM
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mike wrote:

If we can't find a center a good option would be too move hall to center. He is a dominant player in the league and should be able to handle the load. Similar. To what the old oil did with messier.

Did you watch any games last year when they tried this? Me thinks not...

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#104 copper
July 02 2014, 08:37PM
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@jeremy

Did you see. What return Spezza got? Kesler? Not lots.

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#105 morgie
July 02 2014, 09:15PM
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Jasmine wrote:

Oilers fans have a habit of running players out of town. Oilers just ran Gagner out of town. Gagner joins a long list of players run out of town by Oilers fans.

Jasmine you have a one track mind, another than this notion and your defense of Klowe, do you really have any other thoughts about fans and the oilers

I feel like I'm in a circle or a time warp reading your same old thoughts over and over again

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#106 john
July 02 2014, 09:16PM
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No thanks to Berglund. Of the many Oiler organisational bad habits that I am fed-up with, the biggest pain in my azz is constantly playing guys out of position. "Oh *insert name here* is a #4 dman, or #3 center on team X so that means #1 dman or #2 center on our team".

Bull crap!

The #2 center for the Oilers should be a player who would be a #2 center for the Blackhawks, Rangers, Ducks, etc. The #1 or #2 defenceman for the Oilers should be a player who would be the #1 or #2 defencemean for the Blackhawks, Rangers, Ducks, etc.

To the Oilers brass: Get it? Got it? Good!

They will never be a competetive Western Conference team until they start acting like one as opposed to treating other teams cast-off's like the answer to the Oilers prayers.

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#107 kevin
July 02 2014, 09:32PM
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Yes it would be nice getting players to play in there positions but we still have a hard time getting players to come to e town so wake up yourself hence y some guys r overpaid or dont u c that u cant be out there begging and pleading players anyways I think trade yak and petry for Brayden schenn and colburn and yes we might have to throw a pick in as well and yes we have to take on there big contracts or boston boychuk and the number 1 centerman in the league lol at faceoffs anyway lol

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#108 Casey
July 02 2014, 09:49PM
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mike wrote:

If we can't find a center a good option would be too move hall to center. He is a dominant player in the league and should be able to handle the load. Similar. To what the old oil did with messier.

Did you watch him at centre last season? It was a damn disaster

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#109 Grant
July 02 2014, 11:44PM
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KozyMel wrote:

With only Legwand, Ott, Ribeiro, & Roy left as any kind of NHL type center, MacT may be forced into the proverbial "bold move" to land a second line center.

Legwand might fit that bill, but we're not sure what the issue is - it can't be $$. Does he flat out not want to come to YEG? Want too much term?

Ott is a #4, and the Oilers are quite happy with Gordon.

Roy is undersized.

Ribeiro - who knows what's with him?

If he moves Petry or Schultz, he needs anther gap D man to allow the kids another year to develop.

Legwand is really the only guy that fits the bill as a true number two centre.Vinnie I'm sure won't come here. Although the youth might invigorate him . Legwand is the guy and I'm shocked he is not gone yet! Unless he's asking for the moon?

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#110 hagargt
July 03 2014, 12:08AM
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RexHolez wrote:

nothing. use your assets to trade for a top pair Dman

Go figure you got boos for that.. we just signed a number 6 dman for a hefty sum, so the d is all covered now man. Our D is still pathetic, but people don't want to think about trading a future or current star for what we need the most? Geez. The oilers in zero way have the defense figured out.. I hope Nurse is the second coming of pronger, but that still leaves a crap load of work beyond hoping Klefbom turns out to play. We need a current and NOW star dman. I would trade eberlie in a heartbeat for a number one Dman.

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#111 hagargt
July 03 2014, 12:37AM
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The consensus seems to be that Petry is our number 1 d-man. I am not spinning yarn when I would wager that all but 5 or 6 nhl teams, would not even employ Petry if they had him as an option. He scares the living shiat out of me everytime he has the puck, and I cheer inside when he gets it out of the defending end without getting picked off.

I think we can all agree the front end is coming together, but like Rex said, we need to make this D come together as well.

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#112 Dave
July 03 2014, 08:04AM
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I would be interest in getting Berguld He would add to the size factor which is missing for the Oilers. Perron had career year playing outside of the blues defense system so maybe Berguld can do that also.

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#113 madjam
July 03 2014, 08:57AM
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Willis : Seeing as you and Oilers On Whyte have mentioned Bergland , is this viewed as long term addition or short term ? Short term I would not mind seeing LeCavalier whom I feel would be better than Arco or Landers for that matter . LeCavalier Philly can't get rid of and would cost minimal to obtain . Would Bergland be worth giving up much for in contrast ? Oiler on Whyte says they may want a first round pick for Bergland and I hope we do not give them that .

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#114 pkam
July 03 2014, 10:00AM
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Next up, is Connor McJesus. wrote:

Berglund straight up for Fasth would be close. Blues do need another goaltender after losing Miller.

Fasth and Musil for Bergy? Something should happen soon on this 2nd LC front. Appears to be a number of teams desperate for cap space. The Flyers,Bruins and the Hawks, all ripe for the picking. Rather have Couturier, but beggars can't be choosers.

The problem with Couturier is he is a bargain in Flyers so how does it help their cap problem by trading away Couturier?

Now please tell me which NHL player in the Oilers roster is a bargain except Hall? Eberle and RNH contracts are okay but not cheap.

Unless it is a package with some of their overpaid players, I just don't see it happening.

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#115 jeremy
July 03 2014, 10:31AM
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copper wrote:

Did you see. What return Spezza got? Kesler? Not lots.

A couple of little facts you seem to forget, first Kesler only wanted to be traded to two teams, one of which could not afford to fit him under the cap so yeah I would not expect too much in return from the ONE TEAM that realistically was going to get him. Second history has shown that star players VERY VERY rarely get anything beyond a average to ok player and magic beans so I would not be bringing those two into an argument for trade value.

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#116 Cowbell_Feva
July 03 2014, 12:44PM
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Berglund is a #2 centerman....period. I dont care what advanced stats say. The guy is a load that Edmonton desperately needs up the middle and would more than fill the hole left by Gagner. He would chip in offensively, but more importantly, keep the puck out of his own net. Tack on PP and PK icetime and he would be a great pickup at 26 years of age. However, as mentioned on this site, it is the blueline that is the issue again heading into next season. MacT has made some moves, but adding 5,6,7 guys to a team full of 5,6,7's isnt going to change a whole lot. Mediocre upgrades at best.

And to whoever said Kesler didnt fetch anything as a return?? Two immediate roster players in Sbisa and Bonino (who both looked great in the playoffs) plus a 1st rounder isn't a return?? Keslers best days are behind him and hasn't exactly been the model of health and consistentcy lately.....

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