The Quiver

Jonathan Willis
July 04 2014 03:45PM

RobinHoodMeninTights_Poster

With it now seemingly obvious that the Oilers will attempt to rectify their lack of NHL centres via trade rather than free agency, it might be helpful to look at what assets the team has at its disposal. Exactly what can Edmonton afford to send the other way?

Process of Elimination

Draisaitl, Leon

Under the right circumstances, anybody might be dealt. But with Leon Draisaitl freshly drafted, it seems unlikely that Edmonton’s going to go out and make a long-term fit at second line centre a priority; more likely the team is looking for a stop-gap who can hold the position for a couple of years.

Assuming that we’re looking for a stop-gap type player, we can eliminate a bunch of high-end options – the core players Craig MacTavish has identified previously, people like David Perron and Nail Yakupov, and of course all the recent free agent signings.

Who does that leave?

The Main Piece

2-Petry-11

Jeff Petry’s name is a popular one in the rumour mill these days, and makes a lot of sense from a certain point of view. If the Oilers really believe in Justin Schultz as a top-four defenceman next year, and they believe that Mark Fayne can hold down the right side on the other top-four pairing, Petry suddenly seems a little on the redundant side. It’s not an assessment I agree with – in my view, Schultz hasn’t proven that he’s a top-four defender – but based on the organizations’ comments over the last few months it seems probable that they see Schultz that way.

Alternatively, one of Martin Marincin or Oscar Klefbom could be sent out, but that seems unlikely, even with Darnell Nurse in the system.

Other than Petry, there isn’t much the Oilers are likely to move. Andrew Ference is the team captain, Boyd Gordon and Matt Hendricks are already penciled into a role for next year and probably don’t have a ton of value on the open market, and Edmonton’s decision to give two unproven goalies an opportunity means they aren’t likely to trade either one (and even if they were, why wouldn’t their prospective trading partner just grab James Reimer from Toronto instead?).

The only real alternative is one of the Oilers high picks in the next few years – the team owns both its first and second round selections in 2015 and 2016. Of those four picks, the 2015 first round selection is one the team is probably loathe to deal, just in case things don’t come together this year.

The Sweetener

51-Lander-4

In addition to the main piece, the Oilers have some interesting kickers they could add to get a deal done.

For teams looking for a nearly-NHL ready body, any of Mark Arcobello, Anton Lander, or Tyler Pitlick might be of interest. Arcobello is the least likely of the three to be on the move because even if the Oilers add another centre they still have one open position and Arcobello is a useful safety net for Leon Draisaitl there. Additionally, Arcobello’s versatility (he can play C or RW, both special teams and on either a scoring line or a defensive zone unit) makes him awfully handy as lineup spackle.

Second-tier prospects are also in abundance. Beyond the big-three defensive prospects, the Oilers have David Musil, Martin Gernat, Dillon Simpson and Brandon Davidson; all potentially have NHL upside and are a lot closer to active duty than a draft pick.

And there are always draft picks, too. The Oilers have a full slate of picks over the next two seasons, plus a spare seventh round pick in 2016 picked up in the Shawn Horcoff trade.

For a team looking to dump some salary, the Oilers are a nice option; they can send a decent draft pick back plus either a nearly-NHL ready player or a solid prospect the other way. For a team with a surplus of forwards looking to add on defence, Petry or Petry+ has to be an attractive option.

RECENTLY BY JONATHAN WILLIS

74b7cedc5d8bfbe88cf071309e98d2c3
Jonathan Willis is a freelance writer. He currently works for Oilers Nation, Sportsnet, the Edmonton Journal and Bleacher Report. He's co-written three books and worked for myriad websites, including Grantland, ESPN, The Score, and Hockey Prospectus. He was previously the founder and managing editor of Copper & Blue.
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#51 michael
July 04 2014, 06:44PM
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Zarny wrote:

That's not bold. The word you are looking for is dumb.

Brock Nelson is a good young player. He's a month older than Taylor Hall and has all of 26 PT in one 72 game season.

You don't Jordan Eberle for that.

Apparently in his parallel universe you do.

Z-Is Cody Eakin a viable option?

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#52 Rick
July 04 2014, 06:44PM
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I realize everyone is in one of those lets make a trade this very minute mood but lets all take a deep breath and think this through. We have 3 or 4 months to make this trade or upgrade or ….not .Oince traing camp comes and we see how every one as progressed put on some muscle improved their skills etc. We can see if the answer is within the organization before we run around panicking because everyone wants some thing to blog about.

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#53 Smokey
July 04 2014, 06:46PM
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CamroseKid wrote:

Its time to play a bit of high risk poker, boys. That 2015 1st round pick has got to go (ya,ya..what about connor mcdavid or that other american kid!). We've had so many top 10 picks through out the years and this whole perpetual rebuild thing has to come to a hault. Its time to put on the big boy pants and make a trade. We have a lot of great second teir defenseman in the system and im sure we could spare one in a trade for a defenecman or center.

I believe the reality you are going into the season with being really thin down the middle. There is no sensible ufa options for second line center.

I believe a trade may work itself out once you get into the season. I think the Islanders are a good trading partner. You have to believe NY is running Tavaras, Neilson, Grabbo with the fourth slot being filled with one of the other 4 centers.

New York needs defence and they don't want prospects. Their loaded with them. I think the Oilers gotta find a way to get Nelson. Sure he has a small body of work, but his underlying numbers look good, and his size is excellent.

The way I see it is we may have to move a core piece to get the balance we need.

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#54 Dwayne Roloson 35
July 04 2014, 06:49PM
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Rick wrote:

I realize everyone is in one of those lets make a trade this very minute mood but lets all take a deep breath and think this through. We have 3 or 4 months to make this trade or upgrade or ….not .Oince traing camp comes and we see how every one as progressed put on some muscle improved their skills etc. We can see if the answer is within the organization before we run around panicking because everyone wants some thing to blog about.

Exactly.marcobello said he was gonna work hard this off season. he could have a better shot, be quicker and weigh a bit more giving all his hits some more power. he could be a perfect stop gap 2C until Drai is ready.

If he and the team do horrible then we trade for someone.

we could still end up signing someone. our C depth is poor and 1 injury will mess us up. another 3/4th line C would be alright. we cant throw around too much money though unless its short term.

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#55 David S
July 04 2014, 06:50PM
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Wait. Trade Petry because Schultz is a top 4 D man?

Have you SEEN Schultz play "defense"? *holds nose*

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#56 Qwerty
July 04 2014, 07:01PM
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@David S

Schultz plays defence about as we'll as Smid scored goals

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#57 Walter Sobchak
July 04 2014, 07:03PM
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I’m beginning to think the Oilers threw Petry’s name out there because they think Nurse might be ready?

I’m not buying they think Schultz might be ready to take Petry’s minute over, they have eye’s and analytics just like we do, Schultz numbers are terrible, so It doesn’t make sense that they are trying to move Petry without an option coming back….So what if that option were to come from within?

It’s really coincides with typical Oiler way of thinking.

I just can’t see them trading Petry now that they have somewhat established NHL defense?

If they do, well, because Oilers.

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#58 W.T.
July 04 2014, 07:06PM
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Ambassador humantorch wrote:

I'll play 2C for the Oilers. Hell, I'll do it for league minimum.

You're not good enough.

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#59 RexHolez
July 04 2014, 07:10PM
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@W.T.

Now hold on.... How big is he? 6'3 he's got the job

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#60 RexHolez
July 04 2014, 07:11PM
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Qwerty wrote:

Schultz plays defence about as we'll as Smid scored goals

The only diffrence is Smid's job wasn't to score goals. Schultz's job literally is to play defence

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#61 Dwayne Roloson 35
July 04 2014, 07:12PM
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Qwerty wrote:

Schultz plays defence about as we'll as Smid scored goals

yeah hes an offensive d-man. most nhl d-men take about 300 games to find their game. schultz has played 122 games. give him some time and some decent linemates before you throw him under the bus.

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#62 Dwayne Roloson 35
July 04 2014, 07:17PM
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Walter Sobchak wrote:

I’m beginning to think the Oilers threw Petry’s name out there because they think Nurse might be ready?

I’m not buying they think Schultz might be ready to take Petry’s minute over, they have eye’s and analytics just like we do, Schultz numbers are terrible, so It doesn’t make sense that they are trying to move Petry without an option coming back….So what if that option were to come from within?

It’s really coincides with typical Oiler way of thinking.

I just can’t see them trading Petry now that they have somewhat established NHL defense?

If they do, well, because Oilers.

Nurse looked like our best d-man last year in the pre season. he had a solid year and went from 185lbs to 205lbs and he still has the summer to put on another 10. i could see him playing next year but id prefer to wait.

schultz wouldnt take over petrys role. theyre different players. if petry goes then we probably give his minutes to nikitin and fayne.

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#63 madjam
July 04 2014, 07:18PM
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The default center position now seems inevitable. I believe they will wait now until Draisaitl proves he's not ready . If he is then I do not expect them to obtain another center . Landers and/or Arco will fill the fourth center . If they have to use both then a trade might be advisable , but i doubt it is going to happen until they see how Leon's going to pan out . Khaira may be a longshot sleeper or Yakimov .

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#64 Sorensenator
July 04 2014, 07:23PM
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Storms coming

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Qwerty wrote:

Schultz plays defence about as we'll as Smid scored goals

Hey lay off Smid man. He was a cross between Coffey and Stevens. Just too bad that he skated like Stevens and hit like Coffey.

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#66 BorjeSalming-IanTurnbull
July 04 2014, 07:27PM
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Hall RNH Ebs Perron XXX

Those three X's are pissing me off...

I can't construct lines. Who play's 2nd line center???

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#67 Dwayne Roloson 35
July 04 2014, 07:35PM
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BorjeSalming-IanTurnbull wrote:

Hall RNH Ebs Perron XXX

Those three X's are pissing me off...

I can't construct lines. Who play's 2nd line center???

Hall-Nuge-Ebs

Perron-Marcobello-Yakupov

Purcell-Draisaitl-Pouliot

Gazdic-Gordon-Hendricks

thats the depth chart at the moment.

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#68 BorjeSalming-IanTurnbull
July 04 2014, 07:45PM
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@Dwayne Roloson 35

I have

Hall - RNH - Ebs

Perron - XXX - Teddy Purr

Pouliot - Draisaitl - Yakapov

Same as you

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#69 CamroseKid
July 04 2014, 08:12PM
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Brock Nelson for Jordan "Clutch" Eberle. Like come on, man. I think Wayn would hang himself.

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#70 Danoilerfanincalgary
July 04 2014, 08:31PM
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For years going back to the 90's this team had to trade actual NHL players for picks and prospects because we could no longer afford them, anyone else remember those days? Now it's our time to trade picks and prospects for actual NHL players as the tide has finally turned. I don't want to trade any roster players at least not right now, Petry is just coming into his own trading him would be a big mistake.

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#71 RexHolez
July 04 2014, 08:34PM
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@Danoilerfanincalgary

Unless they get the best player in the trade.

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#72 Craig1981
July 04 2014, 08:39PM
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The Soup Fascist wrote:

With Chicago over the cap and Richards likely filling the 2c spot there is there any chance that Andrew Shaw is available? If so could you get him for 2015 2nd and Gernat or Musil?

Shaw is a pain in the a$$ to play against. A small pain in the a$$, but a pain in the a$$ nonetheless. He has been effective in the Hawks top 6 at times but with Richards coming over, Kruger developing well and the Hawks anxious to give McNeill a shot could he be available?

I don't think Chi trades Shaw. He is one player they have at a bargain price at 2M. Sharp at 5.9M or any of their D-men (Oduyo, Leddy, or Hjalmarsson would be my guesses)

They actually appear to be one of the few teams in trouble. Boston and Philly look bac, but they have Savard and Pronger they can put on LTIR for space.

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#73 Oilcan
July 04 2014, 09:03PM
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Could you trade petry for a center then a 2nd for Boychuk?

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#74 camdog
July 04 2014, 09:10PM
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The talk about moving Petry does make sense. A pattern has developed with Mact. Peckham, Smid,DD Omark, Hemsky, Smyth, Horcoff, Gagner. I think it's clear that anybody that was around when Kevin Lowe was GM needs to be purged. The correlation has as much if not more merit than any of the advanced stats.

I doubt that Petry or even Eberle are here this time next year. It will be a very "bold" move by Mact, book it!

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#75 Sorensenator
July 04 2014, 09:24PM
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Oilcan wrote:

Could you trade petry for a center then a 2nd for Boychuk?

In NHL 14 maybe, in real life, no.

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#76 ralph_u
July 04 2014, 09:28PM
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Wouldn't someone like Mike Richards or a targeting a team that is cap tight and we are really looking for a stop gap so the ask shouldn't be as much if the other team is dumping salary.

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#77 Craig1981
July 04 2014, 09:38PM
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Sorensenator wrote:

In NHL 14 maybe, in real life, no.

hahaha. Truth of the matter, SOME fans might be good at ball parking contracts, but trades are so complex we have no idea.

I mean the Smid trade, Luongo trade, BOTH Vanek trades, and even the Miller trade. If you would of suggested any of those you would of been trashed.......and rightfully so. So many internal components not just overall player rating, puck-handling, bodychecking, etc.

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#78 Craig1981
July 04 2014, 09:42PM
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@Sorensenator

And even with contracts when I suggested he resigns at Montreal for about 18M over 3 I got trashed/proped at 5 to 1 for the trashes. People have no idea as a group

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#79 Dog Train
July 04 2014, 09:48PM
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As much as there is an obvious hole down the middle, I'm not prepared to move a defender like Petry for a stop-gap option. There will be opportunities throughout the summer as teams get into cap trouble or through the arbitration process. I still believe the Oilers need to add another centre but Mactavish has time on his side at the moment.

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#80 Darth
July 04 2014, 10:08PM
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CamroseKid wrote:

Brock Nelson for Jordan "Clutch" Eberle. Like come on, man. I think Wayn would hang himself.

Wait 2 years you will see

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#81 camdog
July 04 2014, 10:12PM
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Walter Sobchak wrote:

I’m beginning to think the Oilers threw Petry’s name out there because they think Nurse might be ready?

I’m not buying they think Schultz might be ready to take Petry’s minute over, they have eye’s and analytics just like we do, Schultz numbers are terrible, so It doesn’t make sense that they are trying to move Petry without an option coming back….So what if that option were to come from within?

It’s really coincides with typical Oiler way of thinking.

I just can’t see them trading Petry now that they have somewhat established NHL defense?

If they do, well, because Oilers.

Petry's name is getting thrown out there because Petry want's to get over paid like the Oiler other FA signings. I was wrong when I wrote I didn't think the FA signings would affect his contract. I thought he had 2 years to UFA, but it's only one. He's in the same boat that Gags was in 2 years ago and we all know what happened, he got paid.

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#82 Grant
July 04 2014, 10:12PM
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Silk wrote:

JW,

Do something bold trade Eberle for a centre perhaps Brock Nelson.

They are not trading their core guys so get over it!

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#83 camdog
July 04 2014, 10:15PM
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Grant wrote:

They are not trading their core guys so get over it!

Whether it's today or tomorrow or 10 years from now, they all get traded, that's the Oilers way.

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#84 Craig1981
July 04 2014, 10:19PM
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Silk wrote:

JW,

Do something bold trade Eberle for a centre perhaps Brock Nelson.

I imagine a sentence like this is how Burke got the Smid trade done with MacT......."Do something BOLD Craig, Smid for our 4th best goalie, unless.......you're chicken"

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#85 Grant
July 04 2014, 10:19PM
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Qwerty wrote:

If we're penciling in rookies like Marincin in top pairing roles on the defence, why not play more experienced guys like marcobello or lander in the 2slot upfront?

Nobody pencilled Marincin into a top pairing . He will play 5-6 at best.

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#86 Grant
July 04 2014, 10:26PM
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slowTalker wrote:

Was it Barry Pederson?

No wait...that's what Vancouver got for Cam Neely and a 1st.

Larsen

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#87 nuge2nail
July 04 2014, 10:37PM
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Oiler Domination To Follow

We need a #2C long term solution.

Once Leon is ready we can run a team with 3 quality centers.

If someone gets hurt the team still stays competitive.

Can't start Draisaitl as the #2c, he will get dominated by the other #2cs in the division- Keslar, Spezza, Carter, Marleau, etc...

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#88 Quicksilver ballet
July 05 2014, 12:33AM
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So, we've witnessed the death of the so called defensive defenseman this summer.

Are we just behind the times with this Fayne signing?

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#89 Zarny
July 05 2014, 08:35AM
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I keep thinking of the infomercial lady with the white hair and buzzcut screaming Stop the Insanity!

Sam Gagner was traded less than a week ago, and some talk as if it's a given Draisaitl is a 2C in 0 to 2 or 3 years. Like Yak? Or Huberdeau? Gudbranson? Draisaitl has played in NA all of 2 years. What could possibly go wrong?

A stop gap is planning for the best case scenario. That strategy is why the Oilers finished 28th last year. Smid was supposed to be a top 4 D. Petry was supposed to be 1-2 D. Dubnyk was supposed to be a bona fide starter. Gags was supposed to be a 2C.

Berglund, any C from NYI not named Tavares, Wilson etc are not legit top 6 F and would be playing above their heads just like Petry, Schultz and half the Oilers' roster last year. Why on earth would we expect different results?

The Oilers need a legit 2C. Admittedly there are not a lot of options available but there are some that could be: Ryan O'Reilly, Brad Marchand, Sean Couturier.

I agree with the comment about not trading Petry. To get the name you want perhaps that is inevitable but as much as I like Fayne there are no guarantees. Schultz has only played 122 NHL games and has a lot of upside but again no guarantees. Injuries are also a reality.

Klefbom, Marincin and Nurse all play the left side but only 2 can play in the top 4. Ideally you wait a year to package one of Klefbom or Marincin but the Oilers don't have the luxury of ideal. If not, the 2015 or 2016 1st round pick should be used to get what the Oilers need...a legit 2C.

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#90 Zarny
July 05 2014, 08:44AM
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Darth wrote:

Wait 2 years you will see

And in 2 years IF Nelson actually becomes a legit top 6 F that trade might make sense.

As it stands today, however, that move would be flat out dumb. Relying on assumptions that prospects and young players will progress is one the fundamental flaws of the Oilers organization.

Mistakes are to be learned from not repeated.

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#91 Zarny
July 05 2014, 08:49AM
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michael wrote:

Apparently in his parallel universe you do.

Z-Is Cody Eakin a viable option?

I would view Cody Eakin the same as Baily, Nelson, Wilson etc.

He's a nice young player who perhaps will be a legit top 6 F one day. Today though, if he's the 2C for the Oilers he's playing further above his head than Sam Gagner or Justin Schultz last year.

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#92 2004Z06
July 05 2014, 09:23AM
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Why is everyone so averse to trading the 2015 1st round pick here? My god people if we are in the bottom 5 again this year giving up that pick is the least of our worries!

I don't expect playoffs this year, but I do expect to not be in the bottom 5.

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#93 pelhem grenville
July 05 2014, 10:25AM
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2004Z06 wrote:

Why is everyone so averse to trading the 2015 1st round pick here? My god people if we are in the bottom 5 again this year giving up that pick is the least of our worries!

I don't expect playoffs this year, but I do expect to not be in the bottom 5.

...lower your expectations

...oilers need to be in last place again ...just one more time no?

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#94 Dirty
July 05 2014, 01:08PM
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Petry led our team with hits last year I believe, is big and can skate with decent 1st pass. Better to have depth in defence and trade a 2nd rounder and prospect to a cap struggling team for a 2C that is close to being a UFA (value will decrease in marketplace) to gap until Leon is ready. If Petry is your 2nd line D and Justin your 3rd with easier minutes they may flourish. We actually finally develop a D and now want to move him, I don't agree.

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#95 Maurey
July 05 2014, 01:45PM
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Islanders are short on RW and deep at C and D prospects with a young backup goalie and tonnes of cap room. I say send Hendricks, Fasth and one of Musil, Simpson, Oesterle, Gernat or Davidson to the Islanders for G Chad Johnson, any one of centers Brock Nelson, Frans Nielsen, Josh Bailey, Ryan Strome or Anders Lee, and any one of right Ds Ryan Pulock, Ville Pokka or Scott Mayfield. That would get you a decent center while Draisaitl and Yakimov mature, a decent backup and a good young RD prospect and it would save up to 2.587M in cap space to help make other moves as needed. Sign RW Setoguchi at around 1.5M and maybe C/RW Peter Mueller at around 1.2M and you now have a bunch of options for C and you've filled 3/4R as well. They can compete for the 2c/3c/4c/4r positions. If it's Bailey or Nielsen they'd be good options for 2C/3C if it's Nelson or Strome or Lee they might be able to cover a 3C/4C but they would save about 1M in cap space. Would be happy to part with 2nd and 3rd round picks for multiple years to make it happen.

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#96 KozyMel
July 05 2014, 10:29PM
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David S wrote:

Wait. Trade Petry because Schultz is a top 4 D man?

Have you SEEN Schultz play "defense"? *holds nose*

Gary Leeman played defence his entire junior career, then the Leafs turned him into a 50 goal scoring winger (how the messed it up afterwards is another story).

Maybe we need to consider Schultz as a winger - that's where he plays half the time anyways.

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#97 KozyMel
July 05 2014, 10:31PM
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@Maurey

"Islanders are short on RW and deep at C and D prospects with a young backup goalie and tonnes of cap room." ....

If you haven't noticed, so are the Oilers. They don't have a RW to move.

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#98 Maurey
July 06 2014, 07:34AM
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@KozyMel

Oops, that shoukd say LW. That's why I suggested sending expensive 4th line LW Hendricks away and sign Setoguchi on RW, and TJ Galiardi on LW. Galiardi has played center so he gives you another option there. They could be signed quite cheap, I think.

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#99 Pat
July 06 2014, 08:21AM
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Maurey wrote:

Islanders are short on RW and deep at C and D prospects with a young backup goalie and tonnes of cap room. I say send Hendricks, Fasth and one of Musil, Simpson, Oesterle, Gernat or Davidson to the Islanders for G Chad Johnson, any one of centers Brock Nelson, Frans Nielsen, Josh Bailey, Ryan Strome or Anders Lee, and any one of right Ds Ryan Pulock, Ville Pokka or Scott Mayfield. That would get you a decent center while Draisaitl and Yakimov mature, a decent backup and a good young RD prospect and it would save up to 2.587M in cap space to help make other moves as needed. Sign RW Setoguchi at around 1.5M and maybe C/RW Peter Mueller at around 1.2M and you now have a bunch of options for C and you've filled 3/4R as well. They can compete for the 2c/3c/4c/4r positions. If it's Bailey or Nielsen they'd be good options for 2C/3C if it's Nelson or Strome or Lee they might be able to cover a 3C/4C but they would save about 1M in cap space. Would be happy to part with 2nd and 3rd round picks for multiple years to make it happen.

Isles are not trading top prospects for Petry , other prospects or draft picks. This isn't NHL14. Isles young centers like Nelson, Strome and Lee will just be moved to the wing for playing time.

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#100 Joy S. Lee
July 06 2014, 08:28PM
Trash it!
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Cheers
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Darth wrote:

Wait 2 years you will see

Brock Nelson is gonna be real good in 2 years, huh? How good might Jordan Eberle be in 2 years?

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