OilersNation

NATION NETWORK HIRING

Nation World HQ — Thu, 23 May 2013 17:54:58 +0000

With all the fun and jokes and griping that comes with the territory here at the Nation Network we are going to be serious for a moment and talk business to the serious people that read this site.

The Nation Network is hiring.

BACKGROUND

Undoubtedly no one reading this site has ever thought of working for it. Let us tell you a little bit about us with some backstory potential applicant:

Founded in 2007, the Nation Network is a privately held Canadian Media Company that creates premium professional hockey coverage online, in podcast and on the Radio. We are proud to have partnerships with some of Canada’s leading Media companies including Post Media and Vice.com.

NOW HIRING - SALES

We are looking for a FT experienced and motivated Sales Person that can work in the Alberta Market selling online, podcast and radio advertising. Candidates are highly motivated and experienced sales people who have a track record of proven success in their current career.

We are advertising this position in several places thought we would throw it out to the readers of OilersNation.com as well. No one knows how this thing works better than the folks who read the site after all.

A NOTE ON SERIOUSNESS

If you are thinking that this is some sort of fun job that will be like working at Willy Wonka’s Chocolate Factory you are wrong. Dead wrong. The Nation Network is secretly a place of unparalleled hustle that is masked behind a veil of humour and griping and interneting.

Think Wanye is some funny guy in real life that thinks only about Jordan Eberle? Please. Think Jason Gregor is a hands off media personality that doesn't want answers "right now?" He does. Think that Kent Wilson sits down in Calgary out of sight and out of mind? No.

Serious candidates need only apply and only those shortlisted for interviews will be contacted. Interested candidates can send cover letters and resumes to jobs@oilersnation.com

Building next year’s bottom five

Jonathan Willis — Thu, 23 May 2013 15:53:44 +0000

While the Oilers have no shortage of problems in their top-nine forward group, things get really ugly afterward. How should the fourth line and the reserve forwards change next season?

The Scoring Chances

I’ve taken the scoring chance numbers I recorded this season and split the Oilers into three groups: the top line, the middle six, and everybody else.

Top Line (Hall, Nugent-Hopkins, Eberle): Out-chance opposition 53-to-47
Middle Six (Gagner, Yakupov, Hemsky, Paajarvi, Smyth, Horcoff): Out-chanced 58-to-42
Everyone Else: Out-chanced 64-to-36

The top line is fine, the middle six needs a significant overhaul, and the rest of the forward corps is an absolute trainwreck. Most of the discussion this off-season has dealt with the middle six; we’re focused on “the rest” here.

The Incumbents

The chart above shows how the incumbents performed; Ryan Smyth is included as he’s doubtless bound for a lesser role on next season’s team – his performance is also split into games where he played wing and games where he played centre.

On The Outside

Let’s start with the ‘definitely gone’ crowd. Darcy Hordichuk never really got a chance and was replaced; he won’t be back. Lennart Petrell’s contract is up and despite excellent work on the penalty kill, he shouldn’t be back and likely won’t be. Eric Belanger has another year on his deal but seems likely to be bought out. Chris VandeVelde was very carefully used by Krueger (he actually led the Oilers forwards in offensive zone starts), couldn’t score in the minors, and his contract is up.

Anton Lander should start 2013-14 in the minors; not only does he give the Oilers depth but he hasn’t done anything to force his way on to the NHL roster. Ben Eager likely starts there too, assuming he isn’t bought out, given his demotion earlier in the year. Mark Arcobello too seems bound for the minors, assuming he gets another contract.

The Model

Assuming the Oilers run 14 forwards next year, what positions will they play? Obviously, there will need to be one winger for each side and a centre in the starting lineup. There are two spare slots: one will likely go to a tough guy and the other is the reserve forward. Given what happened this year, that reserve spot should probably go to a centre. So ideally, next year the Oilers enter the season with two centres, two wingers, and they probably leave a spot for an enforcer.

Ryan Smyth will get one of the winger spots; Craig MacTavish has already said he’ll be back, and he was significantly better at left wing this season than at centre. Mike Brown is under contract for another year; he often seems a ‘stick optional’ player around the puck but the Oilers have employed far worse players at the enforcer position; he’ll likely get the job. That leaves one winger spot for Teemu Hartikainen and Ryan Jones; Hartikainen has scored in the minors and might yet have upside, while Jones is an unrestricted free agent. The Oilers could trade Hartikainen, but given his minor league performance I would argue it makes sense to give him another chance: his trade value isn’t likely to be especially high and they may as well see if he has more to give. I like Jones on the fourth line, despite a poor year, but the Oilers need the versatility offered by a centre so it likely makes more sense to go out and get one rather than keep Jones.

That leaves two centre spots open. I was surprised how decent Jerred Smithson’s scoring chance numbers were; it’s basically a result of the Smyth – Smithson – Brown line going +17/-13 down the stretch (with Brown occasionally skipping shifts in favour of a different winger). Smithson’s long-term record isn’t all that impressive, but as a reserve centre he might be fine – he’s big, wins faceoffs and kills penalties. If the Oilers can get him cheap and don’t see somebody else they like more, he’d be a somewhat okay 13th forward.

That leaves the fourth-line centre position open, and that’s one the Oilers should be able to address via free agency. Somebody relatively big and capable of killing penalties, with some offence and the ability to play a cycle game would be ideal; Maxim Lapierre in Vancouver is the obvious name available via free agency but he isn’t the only possibility. In addition to other unrestricted free agents (Marty Reasoner, Kyle Chipchura, Adam Hall, Jeff Halpern, etc.) a quality player in the AHL or Europe might appeal, too.

Smyth, Hartikainen, Brown, and two new centres. As long as the Oilers find qualified help at centre, that should be a good enough group to get the job done at the bottom of the roster, and giving Hartikainen a year playing a regular shift with Smyth isn't likely to be a bad thing for his development long-term. The one caveat: the new centre they add for the fourth line might be worth investing some money in, because unless Smyth recovers from a poor year or Hartikainen takes a step forward, he may well be the first option to move into the top-nine when injuries hit.

Streakcred

Don't forget that it's not too late to play StreakCred - the new playoff pool game from the Nation Network. You can win a trip for 2 to Oktoberfest in Germany among the awesome prizes up for grabs. Now it's only $10 and a portion of the proceeds go to Edmonton Charities. Sign up here.

Recently around the Nation Network

Yesterday, the Vancouver Canucks fired head coach Alain Vigneault, as well as his assistants. In his writeup on the dismissal, Thomas Drance offers this assessment of Vigneualt :

Alain Vigneault is the winningest coach in franchise history, and a stellar bench boss - in my estimation - who will presumably be hired by another NHL franchise in short order.

Click the link above to read the whole piece, or feel free check out some recent pieces here at Oilers Nation:

TRUST, BUT VERIFY

Lowetide — Thu, 23 May 2013 00:24:26 +0000

It took absolutely forever for the Edmonton Oilers to embrace Mother Russia at the draft, and we're still wondering if it's a short term detente. Last season, the Oil plucked brilliant winger Nail Yakupov #1 overall, and incredibly, may have an opportunity to draft another elite talent from the same part of the world this summer.

In historic terms, two Russians drafted by the Oilers in the first round? in successive seasons? Impossible. And yet, it could happen a month from now.

Since 1979, Edmonton has draft 346 players. Of that group, the following were drafted out of Russia or have direct ties to Russian hockey:

L Igor Vyazmikin, 252nd overall in 1987
D Vladimir Zubkov, 208nd overall in 1988
C Anatoli Semenov, 120th overall in 1989
C Sergei Yashin, 141st overall in 1989
G Evgeny Belosheiken, 232nd overall in 1991
L Alexander Kerch, 60th overall in 1993
F Oleg Maltsev, 241st overall in 1993
D Ilya Byakin, 267th overall in 1993
R Dimitrius Sulba, 162nd in 1994
D Sergei Yerkovich, 68th overall in 1997
G Alex Fomitchev, 231st overall in 1997
L Oleg Smirnov, 144th overall in 1998
R Maxim Spiridonov, 241st overall in 1998
D Alexei Semenov, 36th overall in 1999
L Alexei Mikhnov, 17th overall in 2000
D Alexander Ljubimov, 83rd overall in 2000
F Evgeny Muratov, 274th overall in 2000
D Ivan Koltsov, 106th overall in 2002
F Mikhail Youkov, 72nd overall in 2003
D Roman Tesliuk, 44th overall in 2004
L Slava Trukhno, 120th overall in 2005
F Alex Bumagin, 170th overall in 2006
R Nail Yakupov, 1st overall in 2012
L Daniil Zharkov, 91st overall in 2012

24 Russians out of 346 draft selections. About 7%. If we excluded the Russian kids (like Yakupov and Zharkov) who played their junior in Canada, the 24 Russians are now reduced to 16, or 4.6%. Minute.

Maybe the Russian Yakupov can change all that.

RUSSIA--WOMEN WITH HATS!

It might get some getting used to--poor old Rod Phillips got all the Finnish names, maybe Jack Michaels will get all the Russian ones--but today's news that Valeri Nichushkin will forego his KHL contract and is willing to sign with his drafting team is a huge item. Jonathan Willis put it very well this morning:

Willis: Now, not only is it more likely that the Oilers still have the option of picking Monahan when pick number seven rolls around, but if Nichushkin somehow does slide he should be more attractive both to them (long-term, a 6’4” winger with high-end talent certainly could be a fit on the Oilers’ depth chart) and to other teams if they decide to trade the pick down as general manager Craig MacTavish has suggested.

I think today's news is huge. The Oilers were staring at a Monahan v. Zadorov decision--and that was best case scenario. If we assume the draft goes like this:

Colorado: Seth Jones
Florida: Nathan Mackinnon
Tampa Bay: Jonathan Drouin
Nashville: Sasha Barkov
Carolina: Elias Lindholm
Calgary: Sean Monahan

The Oilers can either draft Nichushkin or trade down/the pick and get much better value. Nichushkin's offensive numbers aren't killer, but a look at his KHL player card reveals a time-on-ice total that suggests he was playing depth minutes:

The numbers tell the story. The young man played 8 minutes a night during the regular season, scoring 4 goals in 18 games. Moved up the depth chart for the playoffs, and he played 12.5 minutes a night and scored 6 goals in 25 games. Buddy averaged 10 minutes a night in basically half a season and scored 10 goals in a very good Russian major league.

Oh. And he's 18, 6.03, 201.

WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN?

The reports on Nichushkin's freedom are manna from heaven for the Edmonton Oilers. Absolutely music! The Oilers must make sure it's true, and then act accordingly.

Can Edmonton ever become hockey's Moscow west? One thing: we don't have to explain the weather!

BIG SUMMER BUYOUTS

Jason Gregor — Wed, 22 May 2013 18:18:27 +0000

From June 15th to the 30th NHL teams have a chance to rid themselves of their bad financial decisions; also know as the buyout period. This year the buyout period should be more active with the introduction of two potential compliance buyouts per team.

Here's a quick refresher on how it works.

The regular buyout works like this.

If a player is younger than 26 at the time of the buyout, his team can buy him out for only 1/3 of the remaining value on his contract.

If the player is 26 or older then he is bought at 2/3 of the remaining value.

Teams still take a cap hit for the player, but the costs are spread out over twice the length of his remaining salary. For instance, if a player has two years remaining on a contract that paid him $4 million every year, ($8 million remaining) the team buys him out at a total cost of $5.36 million. Then they would split that into four payments.

His cap hit for the next four seasons would be $1,333,333.

The compliance buyout works the same, as far as paying the player, but the major advantage is that the player's salary doesn't count towards the team's overall cap hit. This is a huge opportunity for teams that are saddled with over-priced contracts, and need to free up some cap space.

Teams are only allowed two compliance buyouts. The Rangers and Canadiens have already used one on Wade Redden and Scott Gomez respectively, so that leaves 58 possible candidates. Teams can use a compliance buyout this year or next June.

If a team uses a compliance buyout, that player cannot re-sign with that same team for at least one season. I've never read anything that would prevent two teams from agreeing to buyout players, then sign the other team's player and trade them back to their original team. I doubt it happens, but I've never read anything that says it's prohibited.

COMPLIANCE CANDIDATES

Brad Richards, 33, New York Rangers: 7 years remaining with a $6.67 million cap hit.

He is owed $36 million in actual money, so the Rangers would have to buy him out at $24 million, but he wouldn't count against the cap.

If they used a regular buyout it would cost them $1.7 million in cap space for the next 14 seasons.

Daniel Briere, 35, Philadelphia Flyers: 2 years remaining with a $6.5 million cap hit.

He is only owed $5 million in actual dollars, so the Flyers could buy him out for $3.35 million. If he was a regular buyout he'd cost a lot more in cap space. I believe he's a lock to be a compliance buyout.

Ville Leino, 29, Buffalo Sabres: 4 years remaining with a $4.5 million cap hit.

He is owed $15 in actual dollars, and the Sabres could buy him out for $10 million. Leino only played 8 games this season, but he registered 6 points. He finished the season with lung issues, so he'd have to be deemed healthy before they buy him out. I'm curious to see if the Sabres opt to cut bait with a player who has 10 goals and 31 points in 79 games over two seasons in Buffalo.

Mike Komisarek, 31, Toronto Maple Leafs: 1 year remaining with a $4.5 million cap hit.

He's owed $3.5 million, so it would cost the Leafs $2.33 million to buy him out. That is pocket change for the Leafs, and even though the Leafs currently have $19 million in cap space next season, I see him as a legitimate compliance possibility.

David Booth, 28, Vancouver Canucks: 2 years remaining with a $4.25 million cap hit.

He's owed $9.25 million in actual dollars. It would cost the Canucks $6.19 million to buy him out. The Canucks are in dire need of cap space, so buying out Booth makes sense, as long as he is deemed healthy. He finished the season on the IR.

Keith Ballard, 30, Vancouver Canucks: 2 years remaining with a $4.2 million cap hit.

He's owed $8.4 million in actual dollars, and it would the Canucks $5.6 million to buy him out. Getting rid of Booth and Ballard would free up $8.45 million, but it would also illustrate two of Mike Gillis' worst signings. Ballard was a healthy scratch in the playoffs, and seemingly can't stay out of the Canucks doghouse.

SOME OTHER OPTIONS....

Ilya Bryzgalov, 32, Philadelphia Flyers: 7 years remaining with a $5.66 million cap hit.

He is owed $34.5 million, so it would cost the Flyers $23 million to buy him out. The Flyers are currently over the $64.3 million cap for next season. They need to find some cap space, and at the same time improve their team. Bryzgalov's play was actually fairly decent in Philadelphia this season, according to the beat reporters, but his aloof attitude seems to have worn out its welcome with his teammates and management. However, $23 million, just to say goodbye, is still a huge chunk of money, even for the rich Flyers.

Dany Heatley, 32, Minnesota Wild: 1 year remaining with a $7.5 million cap hit.

Heatley is owed $5 million, so the Wild would need to ante up $3.33 million to send him packing. The Wild have $8.5 million in cap space, but they need to re-sign Cal Clutterbuck, Matt Cullen, Jared Spurgeon and decide what to do about a starting goaltender. Backstrom is unrestricted. Buying out Heatley would almost double their cap space.

Eric Belanger, 35, Edmonton Oilers: 1 year remaining with a $1.75 million cap hit.

Belanger is owed $1.25 million, so it would cost the Oilers $833,333 to get him off the roster. I don't see him being in Edmonton next season. The Oilers could use a regular buyout on him, but because his contract was front-loaded he would be a $916,667 cap hit next season, and a $416,667 cap hit in 2014. The Oilers likely won't be in a cap-crunch this season, so they could save a compliance buyout for a bigger contract if necessary.

Some have suggested the Oilers send Belanger to the minors in early October and hope someone claims him on waivers, but I doubt they want him in the AHL around their younger players.

RANDOM THOUGHTS....

The Oilers only need to qualify Magnus Paajarvi at $850,000 to maintain his rights, so I think we can safely say that will happen. The bigger question is what will his new deal look like? I could see him getting a two-year deal at $1.5 million/year. His agent likely wants more money or only a one-year deal to allow Paajarvi an opportunity to have a good season and cash in next year. I'm curious to see how MacTavish handles Paajarivi's contract.
Many have asked if Shawn Horcoff is an option for a compliance buyout. I don't see the Oilers doing that unless MacTavish makes a few deals to acquire a few veteran centremen. You can't expect the Oilers to compete if they have Nugent-Hopkins, Gagner and Lander as their top-three centres next season. They need some experience and strength. I don't see Horcoff being bought out this summer.
Here is Jordan Eberle's second commercial. How would you rate it compared to his ATB ones?
Who are some other players you feel would be obvious compliance buyouts, other thanTomas Kaberle in Montreal?

RECENTLY BY JASON GREGOR

Valeri Nichushkin just did the Edmonton Oilers a big favour

Jonathan Willis — Wed, 22 May 2013 17:02:27 +0000

The x-factor at the top end of the draft this year was, without question, the status of Russian prospect Valeri Nichushkin. Playing in the KHL and under contract for time to come, there were significant red flags for any NHL team interested in picking a guy who most rate with the top four (Seth Jones, Nathan MacKinnon, Jonathan Drouin and Aleksander Barkov) in terms of talent.

Nichushkin made it easier for everybody today by telling a Russian newspaper he’s leaving the KHL for the NHL next year, and further that his team, Moscow Dynamo, was willing to release him from his contract. In so doing, he also made the draft much more interesting for the Edmonton Oilers.

Nichushkin’s Comments

Via the delightful Google Translate, here are Nichushkin’s comments about leaving:

I had already decided that leave in the NHL - said Nichushkin. - In the" Dynamo "calmly reacted to this: I was told that I could leave if I want. No legal problems there. Contract with" Dinamo "will terminate, and I'm going free agent. was lucky that I went to the club to make concessions. We agreed that they would let me go, but if the ocean something goes wrong, I'm right back to them.

It’s always a little dicey using Google Translate to find out what Europeans are saying in the European press, but the message here seems clear enough: Nichushkin wants to play in the NHL next year, Dynamo is okay with that, and he’ll only be back in the KHL next year if he doesn’t make a major league roster.

Later in the piece, Nichushkin specifically mentions Tampa Bay and Carolina as teams with possible interest in him. Tampa Bay isn’t a big surprise – Al Murray, their director of scouting, raves about Nichushkin – but Carolina hasn’t drafted a Russian in ages, and certainly not so early. Talent-wise, it’s understandable why the Hurricanes would be interested, though.

The Situation

The top tier of the draft at this point is basically the five names above, but Nichushkin had major slide potential given his contract status in the KHL. After those five, Elias Lindholm is generally seen as the consensus number six, Sean Monahan the number seven, and then a group of defencemen (Darnell Nurse, Nikita Zadorov, Rasmus Ristolainen) and winger Hunter Shinkaruk.

The Oilers are rumoured to be after centre Sean Monahan, but prior to today perhaps the most likely scenario was the top four being drafted in order, followed by Lindholm, followed by Monahan, leaving the Oilers with a choice between Nichushkin and a bunch of blueliners.

Now, not only is it more likely that the Oilers still have the option of picking Monahan when pick number seven rolls around, but if Nichushkin somehow does slide he should be more attractive both to them (long-term, a 6’4” winger with high-end talent certainly could be a fit on the Oilers’ depth chart) and to other teams if they decide to trade the pick down as general manager Craig MacTavish has suggested.

All in all, this is a very good day for Edmonton.

Streakcred

Don't forget that it's never too late to play StreakCred - the new playoff pool game from the Nation Network. You can win a trip for 2 to Oktoberfest in Germany among the awesome prizes up for grabs. Now only $10 and a portion of the proceeds go to Edmonton Charities. Sign up here.

Recently around the Nation Network

One of the things that's always fun to watch for is good young players falling out of favour in other NHL cities. That's exactly what Thomas Drance is doing and in Three Young Forwards the Canucks Should Target he identifies a trio of talented young players that might be ripe for trade:

Trading for former first round picks is demonstrably a risky game, but it's a risky game the Canucks should be willing to try their hand at this summer. Here's a list of three young forwards, with top-ten pick pedigree who, for whatever reason, appear to have fallen out of favour within their organizations. These players won't come free, or even cheap, but could help the Canucks jump-start a youth movement going forward.

Click the link above to read the whole piece, or feel free check out some recent pieces here at Oilers Nation:

FROM WHERE I SIT . . .

Robin Brownlee — Wed, 22 May 2013 03:08:04 +0000

When I started with the Edmonton Journal back in 1989, columnist Cam Cole would fill days that didn't provide him with enough meat to churn out a full rant or rave with a bit he called "Items that might grow up to be columns, Volume XVI" etc.

This, with the Edmonton Oilers scattered all over the place during a seventh straight post-season out of the playoff mix, the draft and free agency still many weeks away and new GM Craig MacTavish settling into the job, is that. I'm stealing it from Cole, with credit, of course.

In no particular order of importance, some of the thoughts that have crossed my addled mind in recent days, grabbing my attention at least as much as the Stanley Cup playoffs and trying to fix my busted Biscayne (don't ask) have.

THE WAY I SEE IT

. . . We already know that Jonathan Huberdeau, Brendan Gallagher and Brandon Saad are finalists for the Calder Trophy as NHL rookie of the year and that Nail Yakupov of the Oilers is not.

Outside of, perhaps, Yakupov's bonus structure, that oversight doesn’t mean a damn thing – if I had the pick of any of the four as an armchair GM, I'd take Yakupov in a heartbeat (insert "and trade him for David Clarkson" smart guy remark here).

Don't get me wrong, the Calder Trophy is a terrific bauble to have in the trophy case at home and a nice personal accolade, but it's not always (some would go as far as to say seldom) an indication of who'll have the best career, and there's lots of examples of that in just the last decade or so.

Would you rather have 2011 Calder Trophy winner Jeff Skinner or runner-up Logan Couture? Steve Mason won it in 2009 and can't stop a beach ball today, while the runner-up was Bobby Ryan. In 2003, Barrett Jackman was rookie of the year ahead of Henrik Zetterberg. In 2001, Evgeni Nabokov got the nod over Brad Richards. You get the idea.

Yakupov, of course, won’t even be a runner-up because PHWA voters somehow left him off the list of three finalists, but it says here he'll be the best – certainly the most dynamic – player three years from now.

WHILE I'M AT IT

. . . I did an item several days ago extolling the (obvious) virtues of pending UFAs Bryan Bickell, Nathan Horton and Clarkson as forwards MacTavish should have an eye on and I said I'd take a swing at defensemen who might not only raise the compete level but the talent level on Edmonton's back end.

I don't see a lot in the UFA pool in terms of blueliners, so it looks to me like MacTavish's best bets will come via trade. That of course, raises countless possibilities, ranging from tweaks to landing proven top-two talent, but I'll just offer four names. Not-shoot-for-the-moon stuff necessarily, but do-able deals.

If the Oilers are willing to spend a tall stack on their top two (and I think they should consider it), I'd be looking at Keith Yandle, 27, of Phoenix and Alex Edler, also 27, of Vancouver. Neither name, of course, is a revelation.

Yandle, who has three years remaining on a contract with a $5.25 million cap hit, can play the minutes required (22:14 this season) and brings some edge (54 PIM) and the ability to generate offence (10-20-30 this season).

Edler, who inked a six-year deal with a $5-million cap hit, might be pried out of Vancouver if they're looking to tweak a line-up that again fell short this season. Edler produced 8-14-22 and had 37 PIM this season while logging an average of 23:50 a night.

On the cheap end of the salary scale, at least as of right now, I really like Travis Hamonic of the New York Islanders (the former Wheat King who almost ended Taylor Hall with a wicked check in the CHL post-season). Hamonic, 22, an RFA, played 22:48 a night for the Islanders. He bangs.

I also like Brenden Dillon, 22, of the Dallas Stars, but who doesn't? The big blueliner, six-foot-three and 228 pounds, averaged 21:22 a night for Dallas this season. He's got one year left at $900,000.

AND . . .

Kudos to Jason Gregor and everybody at TEAM 1260 for raising almost $10,000 with their king and queen of karaoke tilt at On the Rocks last Friday . . . on a personal note, thanks to the readers of Oilersnation and fans of Gregor's show who've brought their business to my Crackmasters Southwest shop since we opened. The business, especially in the first year of start-up, is very much appreciated . . . sat around talking hockey for a couple of hours in the shop with Oil Kings coach Derek Laxdal last week . . .

STREAKCRED

Don't forget to play StreakCred the new playoff pool game from the Nation Network. You can win a trip for 2 to Oktoberfest in Germany among the awesome prizes up for grabs. Only $20 and a portion of the proceeds go to Edmonton Charities. Sign up here.

Listen to Robin Brownlee Wednesdays and Thursdays from 3 p.m. to 5 p.m. on the Jason Gregor Show on TEAM 1260.

UPDATE ON NUGENT-HOPKINS

Jason Gregor — Tue, 21 May 2013 19:42:34 +0000

There has been lots of speculation lately on the health of Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. The 2011 first overall pick had surgery on April 23rd to repair a torn labrum, and recently I've noticed some suggesting he will be out for a significant portion of next season.

Rather than speculate, I decided to put in a call to his agent Rick Valette to get an update on RNH's shoulder.

The main question we all want to know is what is the timeline on when he's projected to be ready to play next year, and Valette shed some light on that.

"If you look at where he is at today, I think there is a very good chance he'll be ready for opening night," said Valette. "If he's not ready to go, then we won't rush it, but he's already ahead of schedule and barring a setback it's looking good that he'll be ready to start the season."

Valette also wanted to clarify why he, along with the Oilers medical staff and Nugent-Hopkins waited to have surgery.

"Surgery is always the last option, that is why he and the Oilers tried to rehab it first. In the end it just wasn't getting better, but it made sense to exhaust every other option first," said Valette.

Valette sounded very optimistic that Nugent-Hopkins will be stronger and healthier when he returns for the 2013/2014 season.

When Taylor Hall had his shoulder surgery last season he returned at the start of November, and proceeded to have a great campaign in the AHL and then with the Oilers. The Oilers and Nugent-Hopkins are hoping that surgery will help his overall game as much as it helped Hall.

I've had a few sources tell me that Hall's shoulder had more "issues" than Nugent-Hopkins, so they are confident his rehab will be shorter. It is impossible to predict how a player will respond, but Nugent-Hopkin's rehab is off to a good start.

WILL RNH IMPACT MACT?

Some have wondered if RNH's health will impact how general manager Craig MacTavish looks at his roster? I don't see it having much of a factor. Whether RNH is ready for opening night or two weeks later, I believe MacTavish has a plan in place that won't be altered by a few weeks of recovery.

If Nugent-Hopkins was going to be sidelined until January or February, then it might have altered his plan, but MacTavish is looking big picture. I'd like to believe the Oilers are past the point of looking for quick fixes and band-aid solutions. MacTavish wants to build a roster than is deep enough and talented enough to overcome an injury or two.

QUICK HITS

A huge thank you to everyone who came to the King/Queen Karaoke event this past Friday at On The Rocks. It went off better than I expected and there were some killer competitors. I will have some videos up in the near future. We raised just over $9,500 for the MS Society. Thank you to On the Rocks and Oodle Noodle for their generous donations of gift cards. Much appreciated.
Congratulations to Mayor Mandel on a great career. I loved how he always pushed to make Edmonton better and how he tried to convince Edmontonians to not settle for 2nd rate. I hope our next mayor doesn't "settle" and looks to advance our city. I'm hearing that Councillors Karen Leivovici and Don Iveson will join Kerry Diotte in the race for mayor. There is also a chance Councillor Amarjeet Sohi might throw his hat in the ring. It will be an interesting race.
The more I watch the NHL playoffs, the more obvious it becomes that the Oilers desperately need to improve their blueline. They need another puck mover and players who are physically stronger.
I'd take Andrew Shaw on my team any day. The Blackhawks' rookie is fearless. He plays hard every shift, has decent hands, agitates and delivers big hits for a small guy. The Oilers need to find some players who are as competitive as Shaw, regardless of size.
If Rick Nash is your go-to player, your team will never win. He doesn't dominate enough one-on-one to win a series by himself, and he isn't a great passer who can make others better. Good player, but he isn't a superstar in my eyes.
Is there a more dangerous shooter than Pavel Datsyuk? Imagine if he wasn't so good defensively, and cheated here and there to create more chances offensively? I know many coaches want guys to be as defensively aware as Datsyuk, but I suspect most fans would prefer to see his offensive magic on display more often. He is an incredible player, but part of me wishes he'd take a few more chances so we could witness his offensive creativity more often.
It is early in the series, but so far Henrik Zetterberg has been much better than Jonathan Toews. These types of battles/matchups are great to watch, and I'm curious to see if Toews can reverse the trend.

RECENTLY BY JASON GREGOR

If Ales Hemsky has low value, does it make sense to trade him?

Jonathan Willis — Tue, 21 May 2013 18:07:25 +0000

Yesterday, we considered former NHL general manager Craig Button’s point of view on Ales Hemsky – that his trade value is so low that even at a steep discount the Oilers might not get a second round draft pick. While that’s a debatable viewpoint, the truth is that Hemsky is not likely to yield a grand return. With his trade value low, does it even make sense to trade him at this point?

Addition by subtraction?

The temptation here is to say “don’t be an idiot” and move on to the next heading. There’s a vocal subset of the fanbase/media that says things like ‘the Oilers will keep losing as long as Hemsky is in the lineup’ because they’re under the impression that losing is some sort of infectious disease and Hemsky will spread the plague to Taylor Hall and Jordan Eberle and Nail Yakupov and all the rest. They do things like call him “the epitome of poor leadership and professional indifference,” “an awful example for an impressionable core” and identify him with a “losing culture.”

It’s funny, reading comments like that, to go back and see what Hemsky had to say when he was being most harshly criticized this season.

Hemsky could have said “I’m playing on a broken foot” and basically earned himself immunity from criticism. Instead, because the team didn’t want him specifying the injury, he kept that to himself – not only that, but he made a point of saying it wasn’t an excuse four times in a three minute clip.

Only after the season did Hemsky really explain what he was going through:

It was a struggle. I wasn’t skating a lot of days, and I couldn’t say anything… but I didn’t want to sit in the stands, so I tried to play through it. I don’t know if it was a smart idea. Maybe I should have taken three weeks off to let it get better. But in the end, I couldn’t do it anymore. It was too much for me, and I wasn’t a factor, either.

This isn’t Mike Grier popping his shoulder back into place on the bench territory, but it’s in the same general family. Personally, I’ve seen Hemsky go into tough areas and take the hit to make a play so often – and he’s paid the price for it, over and over – that I’ve never had any questions about his commitment to winning hockey games. I don’t understand those who do.

The problem

None of this is to say that Hemsky is an ideal fit for the team. He has a good shot that he doesn’t use very much. If offsides relative to ice-time were tracked, I’m confident he’d be among the league leaders. He’s a small, skill right wing on a team abounding in small, skill right wings. He has a significant cap hit. And yes, he’s hurt all the time.

In a perfect world, the Oilers would trade him (because it seems beyond question that Nail Yakupov and Jordan Eberle will be better players going forward) for value. If they can’t get that value, what’s the point? Using Button’s scenario, is a second round draft pick and $2.5 million in cap space really worth it?

They aren’t. The Oilers have to be pushing for a playoff spot next season, and Ales Hemsky can help with that more than a second round draft pick and whatever the Oilers can add from a shallow free agent market for $2.5 million will. Keeping him gives the team options. It gives them the option of moving a guy like Eberle if they get a shot at a legitimate number one defenceman in the prime of his career. It gives them the option of not having the third line be a black hole offensively – and briefly last season, when Magnus Paajarvi and Sam Gagner and Nail Yakupov played together on that unit, the team saw how useful three scoring lines could be. It also gives them the option of moving Hemsky at the trade deadline, when player values tend to be at their highest. Finally, if the 29-year old Hemsky can rebound to the near point-per-game level he played at from 2005-2011, it ensures the Oilers and not some other team are the beneficiaries.

I think it makes perfect sense for the Oilers to trade Hemsky if they can get a legitimate return on him. I think it makes no sense to toss him away for a bag of pucks.

Streakcred

Recently around the Nation Network

One of the names available in this year's painfully thin edition of free agency is Winnipeg Jets forward Kyle Wellwood, assuming the Jets don't re-sign him before that. In Kyle Wellwood's Worth, Travis Hrubeniuk proffers his own answer on whether the Jets should let the veteran walk:

This offseason will be a busy one for the Jets, but one thing is clear to me. They need Kyle Wellwood in a Jets uniform and letting him walk is completely unacceptable.

Click the link above to read the whole piece, or feel free check out some recent pieces here at Oilers Nation:

THE OILERS AND THE COMBINE LIST

Lowetide — Mon, 20 May 2013 21:15:17 +0000

We're just a few weeks away from the 2013 NHL Entry Draft. The Edmonton Oilers have stocked the cupboards with #1 overall's and many picks inside the top 100 since 2010, and this year's draft will feature three early picks (unless there's a trade). There's a very good chance we know their names as of today: the NHL combine list has been released.

If we go back over the past 5 seasons and match the Combine list against the Oilers picks inside the top 100, we come up with the following:

2008 Oilers draft

Jordan Eberle selected #22 overall, ranked #29 (attended combine)
Johan Motin selected #103 overall, unranked (attended combine)
Phil Cornet selected #133 overall
Teemu Hartikainen selected #163 overall
Jordan Bendfeld selected #193 overall

2009 Oilers draft

Magnus Paajarvi selected #10 overall, ranked #10 (attended combine)
Anton Lander selected #40 overall, ranked HM (attended combine)
Troy Hesketh selected #71 overall
Cameron Abney selected #82 overall
Kyle Bigos selected #99 overall
Toni Rajala selected #101 overall, ranked #50 (attended combine)
Olivier Roy selected #133 overall, ranked HM (attended combine)

2010 Oilers draft

Taylor Hall selected #1, ranked #1 (attended combine)
Tyler Pitlick selected #31, ranked #25 (attended combine)
Martin Marincin selected #56, ranked #71 (attended combine)
Curtis Hamilton selected #48, ranked 57 (attended combine)
Ryan Martindale selected #61, ranked 58 (attended combine)
Jeremie Blain selected #91
Tyler Bunz selected #121, not ranked (attended combine)
Brandon Davidson selected #162, not ranked (attended combine)
Drew Czerwonka selected #166
Kristians Pelss selected #181
Kellen Jones selected #202

2011 Oilers draft

Ryan Nugent Hopkins selected #1, ranked #1 (attended combine)
Oscar Klefbom selected #19, ranked #21 (attended combine)
David Musil selected #31, ranked #41 (attended combine)
Samu Perhonen selected #62, ranked #51 (attended combine)
Travis Ewanyk selected #74, ranked HM (attended combine)
Dillon Simpson selected #92
Tobias Rieder selected #114, unranked (attended combine)
Martin Gernat selected #122
Frans Tuohimaa selected #182

2012 Oilers draft

Nail Yakupov selected #1, ranked #1 (attended combine)
Mitchell Moroz selected #32, ranked #56 (attended combine)
Jujhar Khaira selected #63, not ranked (attended combine)
Daniil Zharkov selected #91, ranked #47 (attended combine)
Erik Gustafsson selected #93
Joey Laleggia selected #123
John McCarron selected #153

A few notes:

Since 2008, when making a selection inside the top 100 players, Edmonton has selected a player who was not at the combine 6 times: Troy Hesketh, Cameron Abney, Kyle Bigos, Jeremie Blain, Dillon Simpson, Erik Gustafsson. Although Simpson is a solid to very good prospect, it is not an impressive group.
We shouldn’t expect this to be an area of strength, this is “drafting for need” and rarely works out. However, it's interesting to note just how many (Hesketh, Bigos, Blain) were not extended contracts. Only Cam Abney has a signed pro contract (with the Oilers) from the group.

THIS YEAR'S LIST

I have highlighted players (with some notes) the possible Oiler targets. Edmonton's draft picks for the top 100 this summer are (at this time) #7, #37 and somewhere around #58 (ANA pick for Cogliano). List and NHL blog is here.

North American skaters
Rank - Player	Team (League)	Position
1 - Seth Jones	Portland (WHL)	D
2 - Nathan MacKinnon	Halifax (QMJHL)	C
3 - Jonathan Drouin	Halifax (QMJHL)	LW
4 - Darnell Nurse	Sault Ste. Marie (OHL)	D
5 - Sean Monahan: fine -way center	Ottawa (OHL)	C
6 - Hunter Shinkaruk	Medicine Hat (WHL)	C/LW
7 - Valentin Zykov	Baie - Comeau (QMJHL)	LW
8 - Frederik Gauthier	Rimouski (QMJHL)	C
9 - Mirco Mueller	Everett (WHL)	D
10 - Anthony Mantha-scorer with size	Val - d'Or (QMJHL)	RW
11 - Shea Theodore	Seattle (WHL)	D
12 - Ryan Pulock	Brandon (WHL)	D
13 - Zach Nastasiuk	Owen Sound (OHL)	RW
14 - Chris Bigras	Owen Sound (OHL)	D
15 - Bo Horvat	London (OHL)	C
16 - Ryan Hartman	Plymouth (OHL)	RW
17 - Kerby Rychel: size, skill, grit	Windsor (OHL)	LW
18 - Wiliam Carrier	Cape Breton (QMJHL)	LW
19 - Max Domi: impressive finish	London (OHL)	C/LW
20 - Curtis Lazar: insider knowledge	Edmonton (WHL)	C/LW
21 - James Lodge	Saginaw (OHL)	C
22 - Nikita Zadorov: Mountain on skates	London (OHL)	D
23 - Samuel Morin	Rimouski (QMJHL)	D
24 - Ian McCoshen	Waterloo (USHL)	D
25 - Morgan Klimchuk	Regina (WHL)	LW
26 - Adam Erne	Quebec (QMJHL)	LW
27 - Joshua Morrissey	Prince Albert (WHL)	D
28 - Laurent Dauphin	Chicoutimi (QMJHL)	C
29 - Jon Hayden	USA U - 18 (USHL)	C
30 - Jason Dickinson	Guelph (OHL)	C
31 - Dillon Heatherington	Swift Current (WHL)	D
32 - Madison Bowey: 2-way prospect	Kelowna (WHL)	D
33 - Nicolas Petan: small, skilled	Portland (WHL)	C
34 - JT Compher: Skill	USA U - 18 (USHL)	LW
35 - Michael McCarron: Bull in china shop	USA U - 18 (USHL)	RW
36 - Oliver Bjorkstrand	Portland (WHL)	RW
37 - Jonathan - Ismael Diaby	Victoriaville (QMJHL)	D
38 - Justin Bailey	Kitchener (OHL)	RW
39 - Emile Poirier	Gatineau (QMJHL)	LW
40 - Brett Pesce	New Hampshire (H - East)	D
41 - Eric Roy	Brandon (WHL)	D
42 - Adam Tambellini	Surrey (BCHL)	C
43 - Jan Kostalek	Rimouski (QMJHL)	D
44 - Thomas Vanelli	Minnetonka (High - Mn)	D
45 - Connor Hurley	Edina High (High - Mn)	C
46 - Myles Bell	Kelowna (WHL)	LW
47 - Steven Santini: 2-way D, size, mean	USA U - 18 (USHL)	D
48 - Nick Sorensen	Quebec (QMJHL)	RW
49 - Michael Downing	Dubuque (USHL)	D
50 - Yan Pavel Laplante	PEI (QMJHL)	C
51 - Gustav Olofsson	Green Bay (USHL)	D
52 - Gabryel Paquin - Boudreau	Baie - Comeau (QMJHL)	LW
53 - Keaton Thompson	USA U - 18 (USHL)	D
54 - Marc - Olivier Roy	Blainville - Boisbriand (QMJHL)	C
55 - Jordan Subban	Belleville (OHL)	D
56 - Ryan Fitzgerald	Valley (EJHL)	C
57 - Anthony Duclair	Quebec (QMJHL)	LW
58 - Nick Moutrey	Saginaw (OHL)	C/LW
59 - Mason Geertsen	Vancouver (WHL)	D
60 - Zachary Sanford	Islanders (EJHL)	LW
61 - Nicholas Baptiste	Sudbury (OHL)	RW
62 - Sean Malone	USA U - 18 (USHL)	C
63 - Ryan Kujawinski	Kingston (OHL)	C
64 - Teemu Kivihalme	Burnsville (High - Mn)	D
65 - Jackson Houck	Vancouver (WHL)	RW
66 - Tyler Lewington	Medicine Hat (WHL)	D
67 - David Pope: plus size, plus shot	West Kelowna (BCHL)	LW
68 - Alexandre Coulombe	Stanstead College (High - Qc)	D
69 - Michell Wheaton	Kelowna (WHL)	D
70 - Hudson Fasching	USA U - 18 (USHL)	RW
71 - Remi Elie	London (OHL)	LW
72 - Kurt Etchegary	Quebec (QMJHL)	C
73 - Vincent Dunn	Val - d'Or (QMJHL)	C
74 - Dylan Labbe	Shawinigan (QMJHL)	D
75 - Anthony Florentino	South Kent School (High - Ct)	D
76 - Spenser Jensen	Medicine Hat (WHL)	D
77 - Avery Peterson	Grand Rapids (High - Mn)	C
78 - Ty Stanton	Medicine Hat (WHL)	D
79 - Jeremy Gregoire	Baie - Comeau (QMJHL)	C

1 - Zachary Fucale	Halifax (QMJHL)	G
2 - Eric Comrie	Tri - City (WHL)	G
3 - Tristan Jarry	Edmonton (WHL)	G
4 - Calvin Petersen	Waterloo (USHL)	G
5 - Spencer Martin	Mississauga (OHL)	G
6 - Eamon McAdam	Waterloo (USHL)	G
7 - Philippe Desrosiers	Rimouski (QMJHL)	G

European skaters
Rank - Player	Team (League)	Position
1 - Aleksander Barkov	Tappara (Finland)	C
2 - Valeri Nichushkin	Chelyabinsk (Russia)	RW
3 - Elias Lindholm: ridiculous skill	Brynas (Sweden)	C
4 - Rasmus Ristolainen: 2-way D	TPS (Finland)	D
5 - Alexander Wennberg	Djurgarden (Sweden)	C
6 - Andre Burakovsky	Malmo (Sweden)	LW
7 - Jacob De La Rose	Leksand (Sweden)	LW
8 - Robert Hagg	Modo Jr. (Sweden)	D
9 - Artturi Lehkonen: skill	Kalpa (Finland)	LW
10 - Pavel Buchnevich	Cherepovets 2 (Russia)	LW
11 - Bogdan Yakimov	Nizhnekamsk 2 (Russia)	C
12 - Marko Dano	Bratislava (Russia)	C
13 - Linus Arnesson	Djurgarden (Sweden)	D
14 - Viktor Crus Rydberg	Linkoping Jr. (Sweden)	C

1 - Juuse Saros	HPK Jr. (Finland)	G

Former NHL GM: “I don’t know if they can get [a second round pick] for Hemsky”

Jonathan Willis — Mon, 20 May 2013 15:48:48 +0000

Craig Button, the one-time general manager of the Calgary Flames, does not believe Ales Hemsky has much in the way of trade value. Barely any trade value at all, in point of fact.

The Quote

Here’s Button, as quoted by the Edmonton Journal’s Jim Matheson:

I don’t think there’s a market for him … I shouldn’t say there’s no market. But the salary cap is coming down to $64.3 million. He makes $5 million for one more year. Would the Oilers pick up half of that to trade him, 50-50 (with another team)? That would still free up $2.5 million in cap space for the Oilers. I don’t know if they can get something tangible in return for Hemsky. Andrew Cogliano got the Oilers a second-round draft (pick). I don’t know if they can get that for Hemsky.

Uh-huh

So, in Button’s scenario, the Oilers eat half of Hemsky’s salary and deal him to a team that will pay $2.5 million per season, and they can’t land a second-round draft pick?

For starters: if the Oilers somehow couldn’t get a second-round pick for a guy making $2.5 million who scores like Hemsky, than they may as well fire the general manager now because he’s hopeless. This link has a list of active players with similar scoring rates to Hemsky over the last five seasons (Hemsky, by the way, ranks 59th among NHL forwards over the last five years in points-per-game which is well above the pace of most second-line forwards).

It’s not a great list, but it really isn’t a bad one either. Joffrey Lupul was dealt in 2011 as part of a package for Francois Beauchemin; the Maple Leafs liked him enough to sign him to a five year extension worth more than $5 million and including a limited no-trade clause. Martin Erat was considered enough of a return for the Capitals to give up star prospect Filip Forsberg. There are other examples, too; Jaromir Jagr earned more of a return as a rental player at the deadline than Button is suggesting Hemsky would fetch at half his salary and for a full year.

Hemsky isn’t going to fetch a massive return – he likely won’t bring in a top-pairing defenceman or a power forward for the second line – but it’s lunacy to think he can’t fetch a second-round draft pick at a $2.5 million cap hit.

Recently around the Nation Network

There has been a lot of talk in Edmonton about the possibility of drafting Sean Monahan, but one of the problems for such aspirations is that the Calgary Flames pick before the Oilers, and he's certainly a potential fit for that club as well. In Flames first round target: Sean Monahan, Kent Wilson looks at the numbers and the scouting reports; here's part of what he had to say:

In some ways, Monahan's scouting reports sounds a lot like recent CHL graduates Gabriel Landeskog and Sean Courturier, both of whom were considered more or less "NHL ready" right out of the draft because of their size and the completeness of their games. Neither guy has set the world on fire offensively in the NHL at this point, but both are already playing tough competition and surviving/thriving in the show as kids.

Click the link above to read the whole piece, or feel free check out some recent pieces here at Oilers Nation: